Free MLB Pick: Reds vs. Cubs Odds
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2022 MLB Handicapping
(26-47) Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (28-46)
Date: Wednesday, June 29th, 2022
Time: 8:05 PM ET
Venue: Wrigley Field Chicago
Projected Pitchers: Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. Justin Steele (CHII)
MLB Moneyline Odds: Reds +115 , Cubs -135
MLB run line Betting Odds: Reds +1.5, Cubs -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7.5
Luis Castillo struck out 11 over 6 shutout innings in his first win in a month, leading the Cincinnati Reds to a 5-3 victory over Keegan Thompson and the Chicago Cubs.
Cincinnati Reds
Heading into the game, the Cincinnati Reds have an overall record of 25-47-0. When playing on the road, the team has gone 13-24. In the NL Central division, Cincinnati currently sits 5th So far, the team has gone 32-40-0 vs the runline, while being favored in 28.4% of their games. The Reds’ over-under record is 40-31-1.
For Cincinnati, Luis Castillo gets the start with an overall record of 2-4. His current ERA sits at 3.71, similar to the MLB average for starting pitchers. So far, he is lasting an average of 5.67 innings per outing, as well as 8.65 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. In terms of walks, he allows an average of 3.18 per 9. In total, Castillo has given up 4 home runs.
During the season, the Reds bullpen has received a workload similar to the league average. This group has one of the highest ERA’s among MLB bullpens at 5.24.
So far, the Cincinnati Reds have been scoring runs at a rate similar to the league average, at 4.36 runs per game. The team comes into the game with an overall run differential of -77.0. On offense, the Reds have a team batting average of 0.240, placing them 18th in the league. Cincinnati combined batting average on balls in play is just 0.237. Placing them 23rd. With runners on base, the Reds are averaging just 0.56 stolen bases per game.
Chicago Cubs
Heading into the game, the Chicago Cubs have an overall record of 28-45-0. When playing at home, the team has gone 13-25. In the NL Central division, Chicago currently sits 4th So far, the team has gone 36-37-0 vs the runline, while being favored in 33.0% of their games. The Cubss’ over-under record is 36-34-3.
For Chicago, Keegan Thompson gets the start with an overall record of 7-2. This includes a strong ERA of 3.1 So far, he is lasting an average of 3.81 innings per outing. as well as 8.11 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. In terms of walks, he allows an average of 3.1 per 9. In total, Thompson has given up 7 home runs.
So far, the Cubs bullpen has been one of the most used groups in the league. This group has one of the highest ERA’s among MLB bullpens at 4.61.
So far, the Chicago Cubs have been scoring runs at a rate similar to the league average, at 4.25 runs per game. The team comes into the game with an overall run differential of -77.0. On offense, the Cubs have a team batting average of 0.245, placing them 13th in the league. Chicago’s batting average on balls in play of 0.257 is ranked average. On the base paths, the Cubs have put pressure on opposing pitchers, ranked 9th in the MLB in steals.
MLB Baseball Betting Trends:
- Reds are 20-19 ATS on the road
- Reds O/U are 18-19-1 on the road
- Cubs are 16-23 ATS at home
- Cubs O/U are 18-17-4 at home
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Prediction:
I predict this series to be a close one between divisional foes. The Reds stole game 1 behind a masterful outing by Luis Castillo and will look to grab another behind the talented arm of Hunter Greene.
Greene, the former #2 overall pick, is enjoying his first season in the major leagues and has showed flashes of potential but his statline hasn’t backed it up. He has a (3-8) record, 5.66 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP rating.
However, he has been on an upward trajectory as of late and this Chicago lineup has struggled with flamethrowers before.
Give me the Reds again.
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