Kentucky Oaks Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2023 Kentucky Oaks Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2023 Kentucky Oaks is set for May 5 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Oaks Preview
- Race: Kentucky Oaks
- Purse: $1.3 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 5
- Post Time: 5:51 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Oaks Odds: Click Here
2023 Kentucky Oaks Racebooks / Betting Apps We Like!
Before we can give you our expert 2023 Kentucky Oaks free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2023 Kentucky Oaks Handicapping
One day before the boys take to the track for the Run For The Roses, the fillies are the focus at Churchill Downs for the 149th running of the Kentucky Oaks.
Just like the Kentucky Derby, the Oaks is restricted to three-year-olds but they’ll run a slightly shorter distance of 1 1/8 miles, as opposed to the Derby 1 1/4 miles, on the Churchill dirt track. The race has drawn a full field of 14 starters, and features a unique storyline as the father-son trainer combination of Mark and Norm Casse each have a horse in the race.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill track oddsmaker.
2023 Kentucky Oaks Free Pick & Handicapping: Wet Paint Race Odds: 5-2
A winner at three different tracks on both sloppy and fast tracks, Wet Paint presently is on a three-race winning streak in which she has improved her speed figures with each successive race.
In all three of those races she has come from off the pace – in fact she was dead last in two of them – and on two occasions she was able to pass the field and win by open lengths despite the disadvantage of closing into a relatively slow pace. In addition, she most recently won the (G3) Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park by 2 1/2 lengths.
Trainer Brad Cox is a two-time race winner. The jock is Flavien Prat.
2023 Kentucky Oaks Free Pick & Handicapping: Southlawn Race Odds: 8-1
After a lacklustre two-year-old season in which she managed only a maiden win and four out-of-the-money finishes – two of those on turf – Southlawn looks like a completely different horse so far at age three.
Racing on the dirt at Fair Grounds, she has won her last two by a combined 11 1/4 lengths. Last out she tracked the early pace and then went on to win the (G2) Fair Grounds Oaks by 3 1/4 lengths ahead of two rivals she’ll be meeting again here.
Norm Casse gets his first training start in the Oaks, as does jockey Reylu Gutierrez.
Wonder Wheel Race Odds: 12-1
The champion two-year-old filly from last year, Wonder Wheel took the BC Juvenile Fillies last November for her second career Grade 1 win and then was given a long layoff. She made her 2023 debut in late February and was beaten by just a neck in a lower-level stakes event, and then disappointed last out when finishing sixth in the (G1) Ashland Stakes a month ago.
That being said, it’s important to realize that race was the only time she was not first or second in her career, she has two wins on the Churchill track and has put in some exceptional workouts training up to this.
Like his son, trainer Mark Casse goes for his first Oaks win. Jockey Joel Rosario gets the mount.
Flying Connection Race Odds: 15-1
Although there is some doubt as to the quality of competition Flying Connection has faced while racing at second-tier tracks in the southwest US, without doubt she has blazing early speed. She’s the only horse in the race to clock a sub-1:09 six-furlong win, and one of three to go sub-1:44 and win at 1 1/16 miles.
Here she takes a big step up in class and adds distance, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her go to the front early and try to hang on for the upset.
The trainer is Todd Fincher, two-time winning jockey Florent Geroux is tapped to ride.
Here’s My 2023 Kentucky Oaks Free Pick.
In looking at the form for this race I suspect there’s going to be a fairly quick pace early with two or three of these wanting to be in front early. And while I’m typically wary of horses that always have to come from deep in the field, when traffic trouble could cost you the race, I think it sets up nicely for Wet Paint to get the win.
Otherwise I think it will be the battle of the two Casse horses for the runner-up spot, and while Wonder Wheel undeniably deserves serious consideration based on past accomplishments, I’ll give the nod to Casse the younger based Southlawn’s recent form and use her in the exacta.
Full Field: 2023 Kentucky Oaks Odds
By post position
- #1 – Mimi Kakushi 20-1
- #2 – The Alys Look 15-1
- #3 – Gambling Girl 15-1
- #4 – Southlawn 8-1
- #5 – Wonder Wheel 12-1
- #6 – Botanical 4-1
- #7 – Wet paint 5-2
- #8 – Promiseher America 30-1
- #9 – And Tell Me Nolies 15-1
- #10 – Flying Connection 15-1
- #11 – Defining Purpose 12-1
- #12 – Dorth Vader 20-1
- #13 – Affirmative Lady 10-1
- #14 – Pretty Mischievous 10-1
Kentucky Oaks Tweet Of The Day
THEY'RE IN THE GATE!
Or at least @andie_biancone is… She shows you a rider's position and how to break out of the starting stalls. pic.twitter.com/YXhbpMlLDM
— TVG (@TVG) May 3, 2023
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