Kentucky Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2023 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2023 Kentucky Derby is set for May 6 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 6
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
2023 Kentucky Derby Racebooks / Betting Apps We Like!
Before we can give you our expert 2023 Kentucky Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2023 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
The qualifying series that started back in September is done, the post positions are drawn, and 19 three-year-old colts are set to go to the starting gate Saturday for the running of the 149th Kentucky Derby. They will be racing 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill Downs dirt track.
It’s important to note that since the post-position draw on Monday, four of the original 20 starters have been scratched, meaning all three of the horses originally on the Also Eligibles list will draw into the race. If that sounds familiar, last year’s 80-1 winner Rich Strike only got into the race from the AE list due to a scratch.
After last year’s suicidal early pace, the consensus for this year is that there is not a lot of early speed signed on and there are a lot of top contenders that like to stalk just off the pace or close from further back.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill track oddsmaker.
2023 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Forte Race Odds: 3-1
The two-year-old champion from last year, Forte comes into this on a four-race winning streak and overall has won six-of-seven lifetime, four of those at the Grade 1 level.
Included in that streak was a win in last year’s BC Juvenile. Following that he was given time off and returned in late March to win the (G2) Fountain of Youth Stakes by 4 1/2 lengths over two rivals he’ll meet again here. He followed that up with a 1 length win in the (G1) Florida Derby, again over two that are entered on Saturday.
He’s one that will probably be making his best run from mid-pack.
Trainer Todd Pletcher will be trying for his third Derby win. The rider is Irad Ortiz Jr.
2023 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Tapit Trice Race Odds: 5-1
Another one coming in with a four-race winning streak, Tapit Trice was last seen gutting out a neck win in the (G1) Blue Grass Stakes, the only Grade 1 win on his resume.
Prior to that he was a two-length winner of the (G3) Tampa Bay Derby, coming from second last in the 12 horse field to get up for the win. One concern is that he has not faced the same level of quality fields on his way to the Derby that some others have.
He’s likely to be coming from back in the pack once again.
He’s another Todd Pletcher trainee, while Luis Saez will be in the irons.
Angel Of Empire Race Odds: 8-1
If you toss his lone turf try in his second lifetime start, Angel of Empire has won four-of-five dirt races and was second in the other.
Last out he showed a strong move in the stretch to win the (G1) Arkansas Derby by 4 1/4 lengths ahead of three others that will be going to the Derby gate. He’s one of only two in the race with two wins at the 1 1/8 mile distance or more, and so the extra quarter-mile here shouldn’t be a problem.
Although he’s a generally a closer, he has enough tactical speed be part of the mid-pack group as they go into the second turn.
Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Derby through disqualification of the winner. Jockey Flavien Prat won in 2019, also due to a DQ.
Kingsbarns Race Odds: 12-1
Lightly raced and undefeated in three starts, Kingsbarns took advantage of a soft early pace last out to go to the lead and stay there in winning the (G2) Louisiana Derby by 3 1/2 lengths.
While he likely won’t get such an easy trip here, he drew a very good post position for his up-front running style that has historically been very successful in the race. He has also made good progress in improving his speed figure with every start.
Having said that, it also worth noting that in 148 years, only two horses have won the Derby without racing as a two-year-old. He will be trying to become the third.
He’s the third of trainer Todd Pletcher’s entries. He gets a new rider in the form of Jose Ortiz.
Mandarin Hero Race Odds: 15-1
While UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake has been the Japan-bred horse getting all the attention leading up to the Derby, Mandarin Hero is the one with a solid US prep to draw on coming into the race.
After winning four straight on his native soil, he shipped to California following a neck loss in his last Japan start and then only lost by a nose in the (G1) Santa Anita Derby after a somewhat rough trip through the lane. All told, he’s only a neck and a nose away from being a perfect six-for-six.
The trainer is Fujita Terunobu, while Woodbine’s leading rider from last year, Kazushi Kimura, comes south for the mount.
Here’s My 2023 Kentucky Derby Free Pick.
Despite last year’s winner coming from way back in the pack to win at huge odds, the fact is that historically the horse that wins the Derby is usually on or near the early pace, and in the past 10 years, seven of the horses that crossed the finish line first have gone off at odds of 5-1 or less. Five of those seven had been the post-time favourite.
When it comes to the former, I’m looking to buck the trend this year, as I don’t believe the horses that will be near the front early are quite as good as a whole bunch that will be coming late. As for the latter, I think history will prevail and there won’t be a huge price winner in 2023.
Despite his record, many are trying to beat Forte while looking for value. Of course, value is great, but of no use if your value horse doesn’t win. On paper, I think Forte is simply the best horse, and will be until it’s proven different. There’s been some talk that he looked vulnerable in winning the Florida Derby by just a length. The way I see it, a good horse in Mage got the jump on him at the top of the lane and opened up a couple lengths, but still Forte was able to reel him in. And win by an increasing – not diminishing – length. If they had to go another 1/8 mile as they will in the Derby, he would have won by open lengths.
If that’s vulnerable, I’ll take it.
- Forte
- Angel Of Empire
- Mandarin Hero
- Kingsbarnes
Note that with the scratch of #9 Skinner and #10 Practical Move, all horses outside of them will move in two spots in the gate but retain the same starting numbers. Due to scratches, the race will be run with less than 20 starters.
Full Field: 2023 Kentucky Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Hit Show 30-1
- #2 – Verifying 15-1
- #3 – Two Phil’s 12-1
- #4 – Confidence Game 20-1
- #5 – Tapit Trice 5-1
- #6 – Kingsbarnes 12-1
- #7 – Reincarnate 50-1
- #8 – Mage 15-1
- #9 – Skinner (scratched)
- #10 – Practical Move (scratched)
- #11 – Disarm 30-1
- #12 – Jace’s Road 50-1
- #13 – Sun Thunder 50-1
- #14 – Angel Of Empire 8-1
- #15 – Forte 3-1
- #16 – Raise Cain 50-1
- #17 – Derma Sotogake 10-1
- #18 – Rocket Can 30-1
- #19 – Lord Miles (scratched)
- #20 – Continuar (scratched)
- #21 – Cyclone Mischief 30-1
- #22 – Mandarin Hero 20-1
- #23 – King Russell 50-1
Kentucky Derby Tweet Of The Day
https://twitter.com/KentuckyDerby/status/1654185581017026584?cxt=HHwWsMC-0bHB7PQtAAAA
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