Free Week 5 Prediction: Bulls vs. Mustangs Odds
Looking for USF Bulls vs. SMU Mustangs free picks? Week 5 betting sees the Bulls taking on the Mustangs Saturday September 28th at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this USF SMU Week 5 free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 5
(1-2) USF Bulls vs. SMU Mustangs (4-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28th 2019
Time: 4:00 pm EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
NCAA Football Spread: 7.5
NCAA Betting Total: 61
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SMU travels down to South Florida this Saturday to take on the South Florida Bulls. Charlie Strong and the USF Bulls have had a rocky start, but look to shock the undefeated SMU Mustangs in front of their home crowd.
Even at home, the USF Bulls are 7.5 point underdogs to SMU. SMU deserves a lot of credit through its first four games, beating TCU on the road and coming up with a couple of wins against C-USA opponents.
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SMU started to receive votes this week as they have started off as one of the hottest group of five teams in the country. The Bulls have struggled in the passing game and relied heavily on the run, so they will have to show signs of life through the air to pull off the upset at home.
USF Bulls
USF quarterback Jordan McCloud has only 329 yards through the first three games of the season, showing that while capable, they are still figuring out who they are on offense. The strength of the USF team has been their defense only giving up 350 yards total on defense a game. They have been particularly good against the run, providing a good push up front and forcing turnovers.
USF will have to adapt to the SMU offense as they are very pass-heavy in one of the air-raid style offenses. Especially with the Texas transfer Sam Buechele at the helm for SMU.
This game is a sneaky one for SMU because USF is coming off of a bye and could surprise people with how healthy they are everywhere on the field.
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Playing at home with a team coming off of a bye could be a trap game for the SMU Mustangs who are previously undefeated. We will see what Charlie Strong cooks up for the Bulls on Saturday.
SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs are knocking on the door of all of the national polls with such a surprisingly hot start. Sam Buechele leads the team with over 1100 passing yards and has been a force on offense. Upsetting the TCU Horned Frogs last week and putting the rest of the Group of Five teams on notice.
We will see the air raid offense, or at least a version of it in South Florida this weekend when the Mustangs come into town. Expect a lot of points in this one as SMU is averaging over 500 yards a game and almost 300 of that coming through the air
USF is strong against the run, which plays right into the hand of the Mustangs. They should be able to throw it all over the yard on Saturday and get a ton of possessions. Expect a ton of points from SMU.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Over is 7-2 in USF last 9 games as a home underdog.
- USF are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
- USF are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- SMU are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Free Week 5 NCAA Football Pick
SMU is way too good to keep hanging around with this USF team. After a 1-2 start, not even a bye week should be able to get the Bulls on the right track in order to take down this SMU team. Expect SMU to run away with this one pretty early.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: SMU -7.5.
The SMU team might actually be able to double this spread on Saturday. Their offense is so potent with the Texas transfer Buechele at quarterback. After beating TCU and scoring 41 points against that Big 12 defense, USF will struggle stopping SMU
USF’s pass rush is going to be the key to stay anywhere near SMU on Saturday. If they are able to get pressure up front and take Buechele down a couple of times, they will put themselves in a better position. This could get really ugly if USF lets SMU off the hook up front. SMU is coming off an emotional win that could play a big role as well.
Week 5 Free Score Prediction: USF 17 – SMU 42
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