Free NCAA Football Prediction: Knights vs. Mustangs Odds
Looking for UCF Knights vs. SMU Mustangs free picks? College football betting sees the Knights taking on the Mustangs on Saturday, November 13, 2021, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 11 predictions like this Knights Stangs free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
UCF Knights (6-3) vs. SMU Mustangs (7-2)
Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: UCF +7 / SMU -7(Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Knights +250 / Mustangs -280
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 61
Week 11 college football sees the Knights and Mustangs meet at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
The Mustangs are favored by 7 points in this American Athletic Conference matchup and there is a 61 attached to the total. This game features the third and fourth place teams in the conference and, in fact, with UConn leaving the conference this season the top-2 teams will play in the AAC title game now.
SMU will be headed to Cincinnati next weekend and should SMU run out of the table and Cincy lose their final 3… ok, listen. Yeah, that’s not going to happen unless every Bearcat gets injured or is kidnapped LoL
So, this game is really for 3rd place in the standings and it really won’t amount to much more than that. Houston and Cincinnati are going to be playing the Conference Championship game and neither of these two programs can do anything to prevent that from happening.
However, this should be one wild affair with nothing to really lose for either team other than a bigger bowl invite as they will both be playing somewhere in December. Both programs have already achieved bowl status and we essentially know where either team would play according to their finish in the final standings.
UCF may not remind anyone of that undefeated team from 2017 but this program is coming back to look a little like it used to be going back in the glory days of Milton McKenzie. Ironically, McKenzie did make it back to Division 1 football after that devastating injury but the Noles have not looked very good with their version of #10 in Tallahassee.
Anyway, this offense looked much better at the beginning of the season than it has recently but the defense has stepped up to help the Knights earn wins from 4 of their last 5 games. Riding a modest 3-game win streak, UCF has confidence again that they can hang with SMU for 60 minutes. We all know that the SMU offense is going to throw the ball all around the yard to find success.
The Knight’s defense has been ready for that all season as they rank 30th against the pass allowing only 197 YPG through the air this year.
The 14 – 10 win last weekend against Tulane wasn’t exactly going to convince anyone that the offense is in good shape. This team took a 7 – 0 lead on a TD pass from Keane and they didn’t score again until 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. Luckily, the defense again bailed out the struggling offense which we have seen a lot this year.
I actually give more credit to the UCF defense this season than either until on the field. the Knights held Tulane scoreless in the first half and Keane lost a big fumble along the way to put the defense in a rough spot..
Here is the biggest problem of the day… Isaiah Bowser is out and that takes out the Knights leading rusher off the field meaning that Johnny Richardson better have the game of his life on Saturday.
O’ Keefe and Johnson will be the only real targets the SMU has to concern themselves with and that bodes well for the Stangs backfield.
The Mustangs pass defense really, really, like really sucks let’s be clear. This team ranks 123rd out of 130 programs stopping the opposing passing attack and those numbers should, at least, improve a few spots after this weekend’s game.
Sonny Dykes better have his DBs ready to slow down the Knights who are missing some pieces of their puzzle this weekend. The front 7 better have their game faces on too because without Bowser in the line up they should be able to slow down the Knights rushing attack.
In all honesty, SMU should be just fine on both sides of the ball for this game and the -7 point spread is a bit of a gift from the line setters.
SMU realistically knows they can’t do much but get that third-place spot behind Cincy and Houston but when there is any chance you have to go out and act like the possibilities are there.
The Mustangs are now facing a 2-game losing streak to Houston and Memphis as the defense was simply overwhelmed on both occasions. It’s been an issue all season and you can comply look at all of their final scores and see it without having to open the rankings. When you see 24 – 26 – 28 points game after game the writing is there to be seen.
Tanner Mordecai will go over the 3K passing mark this weekend with only 113 yards and we expect him to get there with the use of Danny Gray’s hands. Ocho Cinco has connected 47 times accounting for 780 of those passing yards and 9 of Mordecai’s TD passes have gone to his favorite target.
Just look for #8 waiting for #5 to get open and the rest will just happen from there.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Knights are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
- Knights are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
- Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- The home team is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
4* Free Week 11 NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
SMU went from 7 – 0 in the thick of the chase for a title game appearance to now needing 3 miracles and the heaven’s to open for them to get there now. It likely won’t happen and we all know this but it will be fun watching them try to get there anyway.
I see a big home win for the Stangs the likes of 45 – 35 so play it accordingly.
4* Free Week 11 NCAA Betting Pick: SMU -7
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