Ray “The Razor” Monohan – Last Updated on December 30, 2022 11:19 pm
Free NCAA Football Prediction: Alabama vs. Kansas State Odds
Looking for Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats free picks? College football betting sees the Crimson Tide taking on the Wildcats on Saturday, December 31st, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Crimson Tide Wildcats free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats
2022 Allstate Sugar Bowl
Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (10-3)
Date: Saturday, December 31st, 2022
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Crimson Tide -6.5 / Wildcats +6.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Crimson Tide -250 / Wildcats +198
NCAA Betting Total Odds: Total O/U 56.0
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Alabama is a rare non-playoff team but draw a tough Kansas State team in their consolation bowl.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Though it was a down year for Alabama, they still finished in the top-20 in offensive PPA, so their downturn is a bit overstated. That they were forced to change their approach and still remain potent says a lot about their leadership, which is unsurprising.
Bryce Young just eclipsed 3000 yards passing for the season but Alabama still remained explosive, posting the 11th-highest yards/play mark. The offensive line uncharacteristically struggled, ranking 109th in stuff rate allowed and just 102nd in line yards.
The Tide have done well though in passing downs, picking up first downs at the 3rd best rate in the country. It’s an underappreciated stat in my opinion. When you can constantly wriggle your way out of tough downs and distances you not only move closer to scoring position, but you wear out the defense physically and mentally.
Alabama’s two losses this season came at Tennessee and at LSU. They ended up losing in two different fashions, but the loss against Tennessee taught us that Alabama’s young corners were torched when the field was stretched vertically. Kansas State’s 37th mark in pass explosiveness could present problems.
Then there’s the loss to LSU. The Tide surrendered 185 rushing yards in Baton Rouge. With Deuce Vaughn on deck, we need to proceed with some caution.
Kansas State Wildcats
That brings us to K-state. I’ve written about them on more than a handful of occasions this year and correctly chose them in the Big 12 title game. This is a really good team.
Kansas State is planning on starting Will Howard, but won’t rule out using Martinez in some fashion. Swapping QB’s usually isn’t my favorite, but they both have dual threat ability so it won’t be totally predictable.
Deuce Vaughn is obviously the straw that stirs the drink for K-state. He’s a large reason why they’re top-20 in rush explosiveness. In the Big 12 title game the Wildcats ran wild, posting 205 yards and 2 scores. They will likely follow the LSU blueprint for this game, though the Tide are top-30 in both stuff rate and defensive line yards.
WR Malik Knowles is a huge source of explosiveness and is expected to play, per his IG Live earlier this month.
The K-state defense is quite underrated as well. They were abused on the ground by Max Duggan but they mostly shut him down through the air. They allowed just 22.3 ppg in their last 4 games, all wins. The Wildcats rank top-30 in passing downs success rate, which will be an important matchup against Alabama. Can they get off the field?
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Since 2017, Alabama is 4-5 ATS in bowl games, covering by 0.3 points on average
- Since 2017, Alabama is 3-6 to the over in bowl games, failing to cover by an average of 7.6 points
- Kansas State is 6-7 to the over, failing to cover by an average of 0.7 points
4* Allstate Sugar Bowl NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Call me crazy, but I think this Kansas State squad can cover. I think the public knee jerks when they see Saban and Alabama, but 6.5 is asking a lot to cover against a team that beat a playoff team in their conference title game.
I’ve become indoctrinated by the Big 12 this season, and couldn’t think of doing anything else but backing the Wildcats.
4* Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats NCAA Betting Pick: K-state +6.5
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