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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My NBA 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Chi Bulls at 10:10 ET. The Golden State Warriors went from FIVE consecutive appearances in the NBA Finals to 15-50 in the 2019-20 season. Last season was better (39-33) but NO one expected the Warriors to open the current season 10-1. Any doubts these days regarding Steph's greatness? The Warriors will welcome the Chicago Bulls to San Francisco tonight in front of the ESPN cameras. The Bulls are coming off a 31-41 season, missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. However, Chicago has opened 8-3, after routing the Brooklyn Nets 118-95 on Monday and following with a 117-107 win over Dallas (both games were played in Chicago). |
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11-12-21 | San Diego State v. BYU -3 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on BYU at 9:00 ET. Both the San Diego State Aztecs and the BYU Cougars basketball programs have produced some impressive AP-ranked teams for many seasons now. SDSU's Brian Dutcher took over for his mentor Steve Fisher and is entering his fifth season, He's gone 96-31 in his first four, inducing 23-5 last year. Mark Pope is in just his third season at BYU but has delivered a 44-15 two-year mark, including 20-7 last season. Neither team is in the latest top-25 poll but expect to see them sometime during the current season. BYU lost guard Averette (11.7 PPG / 2nd-leading scorer) and the 7-3 Haarms (11.3 & 5.0) but got the unexpected return of guard Parcello (16.1-4.7-4.2). He led the Cougars with 24 points on 5 of 6 shooting with a perfect 13 of 13 mark from the foul line along with 4 assists. Guard Spencer Johnson added 13 points, while the 6-7 Caleb Lohner added seven points with a team-high nine rebounds. Making contributions up front were the 6-6 George (seven rebounds) and the 6-6 Traore (8 rebounds and 3 blocks in 24 minutes off of the bench). |
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11-12-21 | Bucks v. Celtics +2 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* ESPN 'Table-Setter' is on the Bos Celtics at 7:40 ET. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will visit Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Neither team can be too happy where it stands coming into this one. The Bucks are 6-6 and the Celtics are 5-6. Milwaukee let a 24-point lead slip away vv New York on Wednesday night, but the Bucks still found a way to pull out a 112-100 win on the road against the Knicks. Milwaukee has now won back-to-back games, after dropping five of its prior six games. As for Boston, the Celtics got some revenge with a 104-88 home win against the Raptors on Wednesday after being blown out by Toronto in a 32-point defeat in the Celtics' home opener.
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11-12-21 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Western Ky at 6:30 ET. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers meet Friday from US Cellular Center in Minneapolis (not the Gophers' homecourt). The Hilltoppers are coming off a 21-9 season in which they lost in the C-USA championship game while Minnesota saw a 9-1 start to its 2020-21 season (No. 21 in the AP poll) fall apart by losing 14 of its final 19 games to finish 14-15, That was enough to end Richard Pitino's 8-year run at Minnesota, as Ben Jonhson takes over (first head coaching gig). In contrast, Rick Stansbury enters his sixth season at Western Ky, having won 20-plus games in each of his last four. Gone from last year's team are the 6-9 Bassey (17.6 & 11.6) and guard Holingsworth (13.9). However, Stansbury has a solid core of two guards and two froncort players on this year's team. The Hilltoppers' 79-74 opening win over Alabama St was hardly impressive but the 6-8 Hamilton had 21 points and the 6-9 Butz added 12 & 6. Guards McKnight (19-5-6) and Anderson (12 & 7) both played well. Minnesota also opened with a less-than-impressive win over UMKC. There was a mass exodus at Minnesota, as players transferred right and left (NONE of last year's starters are back!). Most notbaly, Minnesota lost (to Texas) one of last season's best backcourt players in Carr (19.4-4.0-4.9). The 6-7 Battle (18 points) and the 6-9 Curry (7 & 7) look like Minnesota's best frontcourt players and Willis and Stephens (both had 13 points vs UMKC) as the best backcourt performers. The Golden Gophers were picked to finish last in the Big Ten preseason media poll and the team has more questions than answers. Yes, WKU came out slow in its opener as a big favorite but the team made adjustments and came out with a win. Rick Stansbury led Miss St to 11 postseason bids in hsi 14 years at Starkville and is again proving he's a winner at Western, ky. The hilltoppers win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner (O/U) is on Mia/LAC under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers began the season knowing Kawhi would miss most if not all of it. The Clipps started slowly but will take a five-game winning streak into a home contest against the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat will enter off a 120-117 overtime defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, which followed a 113-96 loss in Denver on Monday. Wednesday's loss was the THIRD in four games for the Heat but more notably, they lost star Jimmy Butler (23.6-5.5-5.1) after 12 minutes because of a sprained right ankle. His status for Thursday's game remains in the air. Bam Adebayo (19.3 & 11.6) scored 28 points and Tyler Herro (20.9-5.3-3.9) had 27, but the Heat missed five free throws and two 3-point attempts by Herro in the final 50.9 seconds of overtime. Miami led 106-97 with 4:45 remaining in regulation before the Lakers rallied to tie it. The Clippers made it FIVE straight wins with a 117-109 victory at home over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Paul George (26.7-8.3-5.4) had 24 points and got 23 from Reggie Jackson (17.6-3.5-4.5), while Nicolas Batum (12.1 & 6.3) was right behind the leading scorers, hitting six 3-pointers while scoring 22 points. The Clippers seem to have found their 'mojo.' The team-wide approach has shown on both offense (balanced scoring) and also on defense, leading to four consecutive victories by at least an eight-point margin. Both teams have been known as strong defensive ones. Miami enters allowing 103.2 PPG (6th) and Los Angeles 103.2 PPG (7th). This is a great situational play. Not only is Miami dealing with some off-court issues (COVID related), but it's also off an exhausting (and disappointing) 120-117 overtime loss at the Lakers just last night.The last thing that LA will want to do here is to play at a fast pace, as that plays right into the Heat's strength on the offensive end. The Heat will almost assuredly double-down on the defensive end as well. This one sets up as well from a number of different ways to be much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-21 | Detroit +5 v. Wyoming | Top | 47-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Ls Vegas Insider is on Detroit at 9:00 ET.
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11-10-21 | Kings v. Spurs +1 | Top | 117-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:40 ET. The San Antonio Spurs return home after a 99-94 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday, a game in which they squandered a 16-point first-half lead before fighting back to make it a one-possession game in the final seconds. The ability to "close out games" has been lacking so far for the 3-7 Spurs (more later). The Sacramento Kings are 5-6 this season, as they look to end the longest active playoff drought of any NBA franchise (Kings have missed the last 15 postseasons!). San Antonio led by 10 at the half at OKC but was outscored 34-14 in the third period as it missed 11 of its final 13 shots in that quarter. "We got to learn from that -- not just settling and doing what we do to keep those leads," guard Lonnie Walker IV said. "We just got to come together. When these scoring droughts come, we try and do it ourselves." Keldon Johnson (16.2 & 5.8) led the Spurs with 22 points in the loss while Walker (12.3 & 5.6 APG had 15 off the bench, Drew Eubanks scored 14 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, and Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott and Thaddeus Young added 10 points apiece. Eubanks and Young are role players but PG Murray (17.6-8.1-8.3) is San Antonio's best player. As for center Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7), Popovich added that he isn't sure about his availability this week as he deals with health and safety protocols. "We know he is not going to be ready for (the Kings game) or Friday (against Dallas)," Popovich said. The Kings visit San Antonio on the heels of a 109-104 home loss to defending Western Conference champion Phoenix that went down to the final seconds. Sacramento's poor third quarter allowed the Suns to build a 21-point lead early in the fourth, but the Kings rallied to within a possession before a late turnover and free throws by Phoenix closed out the game. The Kings played against Phoenix without guard Tyrese Haliburton (13.6 & 5.0 APG), who had lower back tightness. Sacramento has depth at the guard position with PG Fox (18.6 & 6.2 APG) and Hield (17.4 & 5.4), who started (has been coming off the bench). SF Barnes (22.5 & 8.7) is having a career season plus undersized center Holmes (14.6 & 10.5) just seems to get better. Baylor rookie Mitchell IS getting better by the game and is up to 9.9 PPG on the season. The 3-7 Spurs have good peripheral numbers, as they're ranked third in the league in pace, ninth in the league in field goal percentage, second in assists, sixth in steals, and they're tied for fifth in defensive rating. Maybe that's why they are 6-4 ATS. Six of San Antonio's seven losses this season have come by an average of five points and while they'll have to win to cover here, I have little faith in the Kings, who just NEVER seem to fulfill any perceived promise. Pop over Luke Walton ANYTIME! Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Hawks +8 v. Jazz | Top | 98-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My NBA 10* East/West Game of the Week is on the Atl Hawks at 9:10 ET. The Atlanta Hawks began last season off FIVE consecutive fifth-place finishes but won the Southeast Division last year with a 41-31 record. They then made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals, beating the East's top-seeded 76ers, before losing to the Bucks, the eventual NBA champs. Atlanta opened 3-1 this season but has suddenly 'fallen apart,' by losing SIX of seven, including four in a row. The Hawks are in Salt Lake City along with the team's 1-6 record on the road. The Jazz owned the NBA's best regular season record last season but lost in the second round of the playoffs to Denver. The Jazz opened the current season 7-1 (won 116-98 in Atlanta on Nov 4) but enter this contest off back-to-back losses at Miami (no big deal) but also at Orlando (not good!). The Jazz are 7-3 on the season (3-0 at home). No way to explain Atlanta's poor start, as the team has a terrific team leader in PG Young (23.7 & 9.5 APG), who is surrounded by a strong starting cast and plenty of depth. Young plus PF Collins (16.3 & 8.9), SG Bogdanovich (12.4) and center Capela (9.6 & 10.9) have started all 11 games, while SF Hunter (11.7) has started 10 of 11. Throw in Reddish (11.9), Gallinari (7.3) and Huerter (6.9) and it's a 'head scratcher' that the Hawks are playing this poorly. Utah can easily match Atlanta's 'cast of characters.' SG Mitchell (25.8-4.3-5.3) and PG Conley (16.1 & 4.8 APG) are the starting backcourt (Conley has missed three games), while SF Bogdanovich (16.9 & 4.6) and PF O'Neale (7.3 & 4.6) surround center Gobert (15.2 & 16.1). Clarkson (14.4) was 6th-man-of-the year last season and comes off the bench with guard Ingles (8.5),who has started the three games that Conley missed, and center Whiteside (7.1 & 7.9). The Charlotte Hornets lost to the Clippers 120-106 as six-point underdogs (got outscored 27-4 to end the game) on Sunday but then last night the Hornets played the second game of a back-to-back and lost to the Lakers just 126-123 in overtime. This Atlanta Hawks team finds itself in a similar position, as it comes to Utah off a 127-113 road loss at Golden State just last night. If this were the end of the season, fatigue would be an issue. However, we're still in the first month of play and these elite athletes will only benefit from the quick turnaround as they try to get back into the winner's circle. I like betting on motivated teams and after arguably being the biggest surprise team last season, their early play sio far has been a HUGE dissappointment. A little revnge motive from a beatdown by the Jazz back in Atlanta (see above), only adds to the motivation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Pepperdine v. Rice -6.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Rice at 8:00 ET. The Pepperdine Waves and the Rice Owls meet Tuesday in college basketball action from Tudor Fieldhouse in Houston. Pepperdine had an up-and-down campaign in 2020-21, going 7-6 in WCC play. The Waves ended up in fourth-place in the conference standings behind Gonzaga (15-0), BYU (10-3) and Loyola Marymount (7-5). Pepperdine took out Santa Clara 78-70 in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament but lost in OT to BYU 82-77 in the semis. The Waves got an invite to the CBI, where they beat Longwood, Bellarmine and Coastal Carolina en route to a tournament championship, finishing 15-12. As for Rice, the Owls dealt with injuries and COVID issues all season, finishing 6-10 in C-USA West play. However, the team won TWO games in the C-USA tourney, before falling in the semis 73-60 to UAB (ending the year at 15-13),
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11-09-21 | Kansas -4 v. Michigan State | Top | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Champions ClassicShowdown is on Kansas at 7:00 ET. Bill Self's Jayhawks finished 21-9 last season, including a loss in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.Not what was expected of a team ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Michigan St owns a pretty famous head coach as well in Tom Izzo and his Spartans started at No. 13 at the opening of the 2020-21 season struggled in the regular season. Mich St made the NCAA tourney at 15-12 but was eliminated in a First Four game by UCLA. Kansas begins the current season ranked No. 3, while Michigan St is unranked (Spartans received the most votes of any team left out of the Top 25). Kansas faces Michigan State on Tuesday in college basketball's annual season-opening showcase (State Farm Champions Classic) at Madison Square Garden in New York. Self's team is 'loaded.' Remy Martin (19.1 PPG last season), an Arizona State transfer, was named the preseason player of the year in the Big 12. Two other veterans, the 6-10 David McCormack (13.4 & 6.7) and SG Ochai Agbaji (14.1), were also named to the preseason all-conference team. Another returning starter, Jalen Wilson (11.8 & 7.9), will miss the Champions Classic after drawing a four-game suspension for an arrest on DUI charges. No Michigan State returnee averaged double figures in scoring last season. However, Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker should provide punch after averaging 18.8 & 4.8 APG while also being named the CAAs top defender. Max Christie (24.0 & 10.1 in HS) is the top addition among freshmen and will play along the wing with long-range marksman Gabe Brown (42% on three-pointers). A late-season push enabled Michigan State to earn its 23rd consecutive NCAA Tournament bid a year ago before it finished an uncustomary 15-13. Tom Izzo enters his 27th season as head coach. Izzo should have an NCAA tourney team by year's end but Kansas is the MUCH better team here on Nov 9. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Toledo -4 v. Valparaiso | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Toledo at 7:00 ET. The Toledo Rockets of the MAC and Valparaiso Beacons (former Crusaders) of the MVC meet Tuesday in college hoops at the Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, In. The Rockets won the MAC last season at 15-4 but lost in the MCA tourney so missed the NCAAs (finished 21-9). The now-Beacons have a rich tradition (can you say the Drew family) but won just 10 games last year (18 losses), as they enter Year Six under head coach Matt Lottich.
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11-09-21 | Belmont v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Ohio U at 7:00 ET. The Belmont Bruins and Ohio Bobcats meet Tuesday in college hoops at the Convocation Center in Athens, Oh. (I know it well!). The Belmont Bruins are coming off a 26-win season but losing in the OVC tourney cost the Bruins an NCAA bid. The Ohio Bobcats finished a modest 9-5 in MAC play but surprised most by winning the MAC tourney and then upset 4th-seed Virginia 62-58 in the first round of the "Big Dance." Ohio would lose its next game 72-58 to Creighton but no one was complaining in Athens. Belmont is used to winning, having won 20-plus games in 15 of the last 16 seasons (exception was a 19-win season), with EIGHT trips to the Big Dance. The Bruins return all five starters from last season, starting with the 6-11 Nick Muszynski (15.0 & 5.6), guards Smith 12,7), Wood (11.3) and Murphy (10.9 & 5.8 APG) plus the 6-8 Hollander (9.3 & 4.7). 6th-man, the 6-6 Sheppard (10.5), is also back. Ohio guard Preston (15.7-7.3-7.3) left for the NBA (1st Ohio player picked in the draft since Brandon Hunter is 2003) but PG Sears (8.5 & 3.3 APG) plus perimeter players Roderick (12.4) and McDay (10.2) also return. Up front, the 6-8 Vander Plas (12.8 & 5.8) and the 6-8 Wilson (14.5 & 8.7) are still around. I have the utmost respect for Belmont but this Ohio U team is 'sneaky' good. In fact, Ohio ended last season on a 10-2 ATS run, including 6-1 as an underdog. "The Convo" will be 'rocking' tonight. Grab any points available. Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-21 | Nets v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Chi Bulls at 8:10 ET The 7-3 Brooklyn Nets are in the midst of a six-game road trip (longest of the season) and visit Chicago tonight after winning at Detroit and Toronto, extending the team's overall winning streak to FIVE in a row. The Bulls opened the season 6-1 but are coming off consecutive losses against the Philadelphia 76ers.
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11-07-21 | Hornets +5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* 'Late Show' play is on the Cha Hornets at 9:10 ET. the Charlotte Hornets began the season with a 3-0 record but they've tailed off since then and visit Staples Center tonight just 5-5, after getting blown out 140-110 in Sacramento Friday night. As all know, the Clippers began the season without Kawhi (he may miss the entire season) and opened 1-4. However, the Clippers have returned to their winning ways on the strength of more consistent defensive play. Los Angeles has held opponents to an average of 98 points a contest over the last three games, wins over the Thunder and back-to-back victories on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves. That said, OKC and Minnesota are not exactly a 'Murderer's Row' of opponents. Miles Bridges (22.7 & 7.7) is enjoying a 'career year' early on for Charlotte, as his average over his first three seasons was 10.6 PPG. Bridges is joined by the impressive trio of Ball (19.9-5.7-7.0), Hayward (18.1-4.7-3.6) and Oubre (12.5 & 4.50). Plumlee has started all 10 games at center, chipping in 6.5 & 7.9. Charlotte has reached 100 points in all except two of its 10 games. The Hornets check in as the NBA's highest scoring team, averaging 114.2 PPG, but are allowing a league-high 117.4 PPG. As expected, George (27.9-8.1-4.9) leads the way for the Clippers, with PG Jackson (16.8-3.9-4.1) SG Bledsoe (8.8-3.4-4.3) and center Zubac (8.9 & 6.6) also starting all eight games. Jackson has heated up in averaging 21 points a contest during L.A.'s three-game winning streak plus Kennard (11.1) and Mann (10.4) are both averaging double digits off the bench. The Hornets have struggled defensively this year (to say the least) but they catch a break facing this LA offense which is averaging only 105.4 PPG (ranked 19th). Paul George and the Clippers have been strong defensively (102.1 PPG ranks 6th), but I think the home side gets caught flat-footed here in the opener of its six-game homestand. The game marks the return of LaMelo Ball to his hometown. The second-year pro out of nearby Chino Hills played for the first time in Los Angeles last season, back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers, both losses. However, this weekend will be the first time Ball plays in L.A. with fans in attendance. I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-21 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 210 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SA/OKC Over at 7:10 ET. The San Antonio Spurs visit OKC off a 102-89 win Friday in Orlando, marking the second time this season the Spurs have defeated the Magic. San Antonio is 3-6 on the season and the Thunder check in at 2-6. OKC is also coming off a win, 107-104 over the Lakers in Los Angeles on Thursday. Oklahoma City wrapped up a three-game California road trip 1-2 after a blowout loss in San Francisco to the Warriors and a close loss in L.A. to the Clippers. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (9.7) missed all three games of a road trip with a balky right knee, before returning in the last two. Walker (11.2) started in his place, joining Murray (18.4-8.1-8.5), Johnson (15.6 & 5.8), Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7) and White (13.7 & 5.7 APG). However, Poeltl will miss here, as he has entered the NBA's health and safety protocols and is expected to miss several games, PG Gilgeous-Alexander (23.5-4.9-3.9) leads OKC, joined by three others who have started all eight games. However, none are household names in SF Dort (12.4 & 3.6), PF Bazley (11.1 & 6.3) and SG Gidley (10.5-6.0-6.1). The Thunder are rebuilding after losing the entire core of players that led them into the NBA Finals Against the Cavaliers back in 2012. The Thunder are off a big 107-104 road win at the Lakers and they'll be eager to make it two in a row here. That game was played Thursday, so OKC has had time to 'come down from that high' and is well rested. This year's version of the Spurs is running a free-flowing offense (108.9 PPG ranks 13th) and defense is no longer a priority (107.9 PPG ranks 16th). Yes, the Spurs clamped down on Orlando but I expect both of these teams to be in the 110s in this one. Go Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-21 | Hornets +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 110-140 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cha Hornets at 10:10 ET. The Charlotte Hornets began the season with a 3-0 record but they've tailed off since then and head to Sacramento just 5-4. However, Charlotte head coach James Borrego said those early outcomes should be remembered for some of the things that were learned. 4-4 Sacrameto topped the New Orleans Pelicans 112-99 on Wednesday night, as the Kings won a home game for the first time this season. Miles Bridges (24.1 & 8.0) is enjoying a 'career year,' as his average over his first three seasons was 10.6 PPG. He racked up 32 points, reaching the 30-point mark for the fourth time this season in Wednesday's 114-92 loss at Golden St. Bridges is joined by the impressive trio of Ball (19.4-6.0-6.3), Hayward (17.3-5.0-3.8) and Oubre (12.9 & 4.6). Charlotte has reached 100 points in all except two of its nine games, after scoring a season-low total in Wednesday night's loss (see above). However, the Hornet's still check in as the NBA's highest scoring team, averaging 114.7 PPG, while also shooting a league-high 39.6% on threes. The Kings own a terrific guard trio. Fox (17.9 & 6.5 APG) and Haliburton 13.1 & 5.5 APG) are starting, with Hield coming off the bench to average 16.8 PPG. The Kings will have to see if there's any fallout from the league regarding center Richaun Holmes' second-half ejection Wednesday night. He was restrained from team staff members prior to exiting the court. He's an undersized center averaging 15.0 & 9.9. Then there is SF Harrison Barnes, who has a 14.0 PPG average over his 11 seasons but has been spectacular so far, averaging 23.3 PPG and 9.5 RPG. The Kings remain an enigma, as the team's Wednesday win over the Pelicans was the FIRST time in their eight games that the Kings held an opponent under 100 points (99). In fact, half (2 of 4) of the Kings' wins have come over New Orleans. Charlotte should come in confident, as it has won its last FIVE meetings with Sacramento. Play the Hornets. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies +1 v. Wizards | Top | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mem Grizzlies at 7:10 ET. The Washington Wizards opened 5-1, the franchise's best start in 16 years. However, as they welcome the Grizzlies to the nation's capital, Washington is looking to shake off a two-game losing skid. Memphis is off back-to-back home wins against the Nuggets, winning 106-97 (Mon) and 108-106 (Wed). Both teams will take the floor with 5-3 records. To no one's surprise, Ja Morant (27.0-5.5-7.5) is setting the pace for Memphis early. Second-year wing Desmond Bane is elevating his play early on, helping fill the void with Dillon Brooks sidelined due to a broken hand. Bane has averaged 17.5 & 4.1, while shooting better than 41 percent from beyond the three-point arc on almost eight attempts per game. Guard Melton has also been a nice surprise, averaging 12.6 PPG. Then there is Jaren Jackson Jr, who is coming off a 2020-21 in which he missed all but 11 regular-season games due to injuries. The fourth-year forward is averaging 13.6 & 5.4, while scoring in double-figures in six of the Grizzlies' first eight games. The team's new starting center is Steven Adams and he's close to averaging a double-double (9.4 & 9.1). Washington's starting guard duo is Beal (24.4-5.7-4.9) and Dinwiddie (17.9-4.9-5.9). Then there's the "Lakers-East" trio of PF Harrell (18.0 & 9.9), SF Kuzma (14.1 & 9.9) and guard Caldwell-Pope (9.5 & 4.0). However, Washington comes into Friday's matchup with more than a few issues. Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant have not yet played this season and neither has a clear timetable to return. Davis Bertans is out indefinitely with an ankle injury, and now Kyle Kuzma is questionable for Friday after leaving Wednesday's game with an arm injury. I think Washington is going to take another step back here. Defending champion Milwaukee is coming to D.C. on Sunday, while Memphis will enjoy two whole nights off after this before a favorable home stretch starting with Minnesota on Monday. Scheduling (for both teams, in every sport) is always something I look at carefully when assessing a contest and this one favors Memphis in that department. Memphis is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month is on Phi/Det Over at 7:10 ET. The Detroit Pistons have opened 1-6 and it's not difficult to figure out why. Detroit ranks dead-last in scoring (95.1 PPG), FG percentage (39.4%) and three-point percentage (26.7%). A difficult early schedule hasn't helped the cause and it won't get any easier in the short run, as the Pistons host Philadelphia on Thursday and Brooklyn on Friday. The Sixers have a different set of issues as they visit Detrouit but come to Motown 6-2, which includes a 110-102 victory over Detroit in Philadelphia last Thursday. Joel Embiid (20.6-8.7-4.3) had 18 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in his return to the lineup on Wednesday plus Seth Curry (17.1) scored 22 points and hit a crucial jumper late to lead the Philadelphia 76ers over the Chicago Bulls 103-98. Georges Niang (11.6 PPG coming off the bench in all eight games) added 18 points for the short-handed 76ers. All are aware of the Ben Simmons situation (personal reasons), who has missed all eight games, but Philadelphia was without starters Tobias Harris (health and safety protocols) and Danny Green (hamstring). The loss of Green is not a big deal but Harris was averaging 19.8-9.0-4.2. Maxey has started all eight games (alongside Curry) and is averaging 14.0 & 4.3 APG. Milton, who missed the first four games (averaged 13.0 PPG last season), has played the last four, averaging 10.3 PPG. Detroit has just three players scoring in double digits. That trio is comprised of frontcourt players Grant (16.8 & 5.0), Bey (14.1 & 7.9) and Olynyk (12.4 7 4.6), Seven more players have participated in all seven games, avergaing betwee 5.7 and 9.4 PPG. All eyes are on the top pick in the 2021 Draft, Cade Cunningham. He went 2-for-14 from the floor in his second appearance of the season against the Bucks. He's taken 14 three-point shots in his two games and missed EVERY one of them."That's part of his rust," head coach Casey said of the rookie, who sprained his ankle during training camp. "That's why we tried to get him some minutes toward the end, just to get some rust off the pipes." Here's the rub. Philadelphia has seemed adjust to playing without Ben Simmons in the lineup and is gunning for its fifth straight victory tonight. No reason to think that Philly can't match or excede the 112.0 PPG that the team has averaged in its four-game winning. After all, the Pistons have allowed 117 points in each of their last two games, including to a Milwaukee team that was missing regular starers Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and DiVincenzo. I expect Phily to score 155 points or more, meaning this game can go OVER even in the Pistons do no better than match their 95.0 PPG average. Note: The Pistons scored 102 opoints at Philadelphia on Oct 28. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-21 | Mavs v. Spurs +1 | Top | 109-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle at The Alamo' is on the SA Spurs at 8:40 ET. The San Antonio Spurs need to shrug off their worst defensive performance of the young season when they return home to host the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. The Spurs were routed 131-118 Monday at Indiana, as the Pacers shot 63.8 percent from the floor in the first half while building a 22-point lead at the break and never looked back. The Spurs have dropped five of their last six games, as they welcome the 4-3 Mavs to the Alamo City. It's the second game of a home-road back-to-back for Dallas, which began with a 125-110 defeat to the visiting Miami Heat on Tuesday. Doncic is one of the league's best, although his scoring is down some (24.0-7.7-7.1). Swingman Hardaway spent the better part of last season as the team's 6th-man but he started all seven games, averaging 13.9 PPG. Kristaps Porzingis, nicknamed the "Unicorn," has missed the last four games due to back tightness. Porzingis missed 29 of Dallas' 72 games last season due to his back issues and is off to a slow start even in the three games he has played. He is averaging 12.7 PPG (six below his career average) and is shooting 30.2 percent from the floor and 23.5 percent on three-pointers. His career averages are 44 percent on field goals and 36 percent on threes."We want him to be right," Mavs head coach Jason Kidd said of Porzingis. "If he's not right, he can't play. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (11.5) has missed all three games of San Antonio's just-concluded road trip with a balky right knee. He will be a game-time decision. Walker (12.7) has started in his place, joining Murray (17.6-7.6-8.5), Johnson (14.9 & 5.3), Poetl (13.9 & 9.7) and White (13.1 & 6.3 APG). This year's version of the Spurs is running a free-flowing offense (110.0 PPG ranks 13th) and should be able to outscore a Dallas team that is having offensive struggles. Dallas is averaging 100.0 PPG (28th) on 40.9% (29th). I had a play on Dallas last night and lost. I rarely "play on" a team one night, and then go against them the next, but there are exceptions to every rule. That's the case here. These contests really do need to be viewed and assessed individually and this is simply a bad spot for the scuffling Mavericks. They're dealing with several key injuries (Porzingis) and they're facing a Spurs team that returns home eager to bounce back after a 131-118 at Indiana on Monday. San Antonio is also playing with the immediate revenge factor here after falling 104-99 at Dallas on October 28th. That is significant, as dating to last year the Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. Spurs win in 'The Battle 4 Texas.' Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-21 | Raptors +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Raptors at 7:10 ET. The Toronto Raptors are still without All Star Pascal Siakam, who is not expected back until mid-November. However, since the Raptors lost their season-opener 98-83 at home to the Wizards, they've won FIVE of their last seven games, including FOUR in a row. Toronto will be out to avenge that opening-night loss and extend their winning streak to five when they conclude a three-game road trip Wednesday night against the Washington Wizards. The Wizards lost 118-111 to the host Atlanta Hawks on Monday, snapping a three-game winning streak to fall to 5-2. Rookie Barnes (18.1 & 8.9) has been terrific for Toronto but he suffered a sprained right thumb late in Toronto's win Saturday night against the Indiana Pacers. His status for Wednesday is uncertain. SF Anunuby scored a career-best 36 points Monday in a 113-104 victory over the New York Knicks and leads the Raptors in scoring at 20.3 PPG (adds 5.6 RPG). VanVleet started slowly but is up to 17.0-5.5-7.4 and Trent (15.1 PPG) has been a consistent producer. Starting center Precious Achiuwa played only 17 minutes with two points and nine rebounds on Monday. He was replaced by Khem Birch, who had six points, eight rebounds, one blocked shot and two steals. However, Achiuwa is averaging 8.3 & 8.6 in a modest 23.5 MPG (pretty good). The Wizards are led by the guard duo of Beal (24.3-5.5-4.5) and Dinwiddie (18.8-4.7-5.3) plus a trio of former Lakers. PF Harrell (18.4 & 9.9), SF Kuzma (15.9 & 11.0) and guard Caldwell-Ppe (9.7) kinda makes the Wizards, the "Lakers-East!" The Wizards had starting point guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who did not play Thursday (rest), and starting center Daniel Gafford (right quadriceps contusion), who missed the two previous games, back in the lineup Monday. However, Washington had too many wasted possessions against the Hawks. Toronto has won with its defense, allowing just 100.3 PPG (3rd). The Raptors will remember that in their home loss to the Wizards, they held a team averaging 112.4 PPG (6th) to just 98 points. The Raptors come in on a four-game winning streak and have also won their last FOUR visits to the nation's capital. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-21 | Heat v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 125-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 7:40 ET. Miami made an improbable run to the NBA Finals in 2020 but last year, aftera modest 42-30 sesson, got swept 4-0 by the Milwaukee Bucks (eventual champs) in the first round. However, the Heat have come out like gangbusters this season, opening 5-1 (only Chicago, yes Chicago, is better at 6-1). The Mavericks welcome the Heat to Dallas with a 6-4 overall record, including a perfect 3-0 mark at home. Swingman Jimmy Butler (25.3-7.0-5.5) is healthy and playing great, as is the ever-improving Bamm Abedayo (20.6 & 14.0). However, major addition, PG Lowry (from Toronto), is off to a sow start, averaging only 8.4 PPG (in 31 minutes), shooting an 'ugly' 33.3% overall (26.9% on threes). Picking up the slack is third-year gaur Herro, who is averaging 22.0-6.5-4.5 off the bench. Doncic is one of the league's best, although his scoring is down some (22.5-8.5-7.97). Swingman Hardaway spent the better part of last season as the team's 6th-man but he started all six games, averaging 13.3 PPG. Kristaps Porzingis, nicknamed the "Unicorn," has missed the last three games due to back tightness. Porzingis missed 29 of Dallas' 72 games last season due to his back issuea and is off to a slow start even in the three games he has played. He is averaging 12.7 PPG (six below his career average) and is shooting 30.2 percent from the floor and 23.5 percent on three-pointers. His career averages are 44 percent on field goals and 36 percent on threes."We want him to be right," Mavs head coach Jason Kidd said of Porzingis. "If he's not right, he can't play. A lot has gone right for Miami so far, but I am still not sold on the Heat being quite as good as they've looked so far. Dallas will need Porzingis to get healthy for the Mavs to be a strong playoff contender but I believe the Mavs are in a great spot for a win tonight as a small home underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:40 ET. |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers OVER 219 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on SA/Ind Over at 7:10 ET The Spurs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 102-93 win in Milwaukee on Saturday. San Antonio's defense carried it to the victory, which was also its first on the road this season. The Spurs limited Milwaukee's attack to 21 points below its per-game scoring average coming in and avenged a 10-point loss at home to the Bucks on Oct 23. 2-4 San Antonio will visit Indiana on Monday to take on the struggling Indiana Pacers. Indiana had made NINE postseasons in its previous 10 years before missing out last season with a 34-38 record. Now, the Pacers have opened 1-6 and carry a four-game losing streak into Monday's game after a 97-94 loss at home to Toronto on Saturday. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (11.5) missed his second straight game with right knee soreness in Saturday's win and will not play on Monday. Walker (13.2) will take his place, joining Murray (17.7-8.5-8.8), Johnson (15.8 & 5.3), Poetle (14.3 & 10.3) and White (13.2 & 6.2 APG). Indiana PG Brogdon (23.4-7.0-7.5) did not play for Indiana in Saturday's loss (hamstring strain), which was the second game of a road-home back-to-back.He is questionable for this one. Domantas Sabonis (20.9-11.1-4.1) led the Pacers with 22 points and 14 rebounds but missed a 3-pointer in the final seconds that would have tied the game against Toronto. Justin Holiday (8.6) added 16 points, rookie Chris Duarte (17.7 & 4.7) had 12, Jeremy Lamb (10.0) scored 11 points and center Myles Turner (12.4 & 7.4) had 10 points and 11 rebounds. Caris LeVert saw the court for the first time this season and scored 15 points in 16 minutes for Indiana, all in the first half. LeVert is on a minutes restriction because of a stress fracture in his back that forced him to miss the Pacers' first six games but should be able to give Indiana a good 20 minutes in this one. Non-conference matchups aren't always the most intense on the defensive side and I expect that to be the case here. Dating to last season though Indiana has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points. The Spurs had lost four in a row prior to their win over the defending champs and won't be taking anything for granted in this one, as they must feel this is a game that they can win outright as well. I expect both teams to push the pace from the opening tip, resulting in an O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-21 | Grizzlies +6 v. Warriors | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mem Grizzlies at 10:10 ET. Klay Thompson missed the last two seasons and the latest word is that he is expected to be cleared to return to full-contract practices within a month. The latest word on the team's highly-touted No. 1 pick from the 2020 Draft (James Wiseman), is the following. The Warriors' training staff has targeted Friday as the date Wiseman should be able to start jumping and working out at full speed, and a "full clearance" is expected to be in the next couple weeks. In the meantime, the Warriors have opened 4-0. The Warriors welcome the 2-2 Memphis Grizzlies to Chase Center tonight, a team that is coming off an 'ugly' 116-96 loss last night in Portland (note: I had the Blazers in that one). Memphis opened the season with an 11-point home win over the sad-sack Cavs (although the Clippers may argue that Cleveland is NOT that bad!) but then set out on a four-game Western road swing. Memphis began with back-to back games at Staples Center against the Clippers (won) and then the Lakers (lost by three). PG Ja Morant (35.0 & 8.0 APG) led the way through three games for Memphis (no surprise there) but Desmond Bane's and De'Anthony Melton's play had SURE been eye openers. Bane was averaging 19.3 & 4.7 and Melton 18.3 & 4.7. Memphis also picked up center Stevens Adams in the offseason and he had the front office 'patting its own back' by averaging 13.0 & 13.0. Some great news was that Jarren Jackson Jr. looks completely healthy, averaging 15.3 & 6.0, after an injury-riddled season last year. However, not much went right in Portland on Wednesday night. Morant was jst 5 of 12 for 17 points, Adams shot 2 of 8 for four points with seven rebounds, Jackson had just seven points and two rebounds plus Melton imploded, missing all eight FG attempts in 25 scoreless minutes. Only Bane held up his end with 19 points, as Memphis shot 36.5% (17 of 50 on threes). Curry has led Golden St in scoring in all four games and enters tonight with a line of 29.0-8.3-6.3. SF Wiggns eventually got vaccinated and has opened averaging 16.8 & 5.3. The team's other three starters are Poole (15.3 & 4.3 APG), PF Green (9.5-7.3-6.8) and center Looney (6.5 & 5.8). Golden State head coach Steve Kerr has to be smiling (although maybe a little concerned) as each of the team's four wins have come despite a halftime deficit, a season-opening feat accomplished just once previously in NBA history by the Los Angeles Clippers in 1985-86. The eighth-seeded Warriors and ninth-seeded Grizzlies put on an entertaining show in the inaugural NBA play-in tournament last May, with Memphis getting two late hoops from Ja Morant to pull out a 117-112 overtime victory and enter as the West's No. 8 seed. However, I'm not reading much of anything into the "revenge" angle here though. New season, new faces and new circumstances. There's no bad blood between these teams, so in my opinion, the revenge factor is a moot point. Sure, it's back to-back nights for Memphis but off an AWFUL effort last night in Portland, I expect Memphis to play VERY well. Golden St has made a habit of falling behind and then coming back to win (see above) to open this season but a trend like that is unlikely to continue. Without Thompson and Wiseman, I don't believe the Warriors are the better team. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2 | Top | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Por Blazers at 10:10 ET. The Memphis Grizzlies have opened 2-1 but 3-0 ATS. The team continues its four-game Western road trip tonight in Portland, after splitting two games at Staples Center. The Grizz beat the Clippers but lost a close one to the Lakers. As for the 1-2 Blazers, they are 1-2 and will be looking to put a humiliating performance behind them when they play host to the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.The Trail Blazers are adjusting to new head coach Chauncey Billups and the transition looked ugly in Monday night's 116-86 road loss to the Clippers. Portland committed 30 turnovers in a defeat that shooting guard CJ McCollum termed "a shellacking."
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Month is on Atl/NO Over at 7:40 ET. The Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for 10 straight years from the 2007-08 through the 2016-17 seasons. The Hawks then followed with THREE consecutive last-place finishes in the Southeast division with a combined 73-158 (.316) record. However, the Hawks had a breakout season last year, going 41-31 and reaching the Eastern Conference final before falling to the Bucks, who went on to win the NBA title. The Pelicans were 48-34 back in 2017-18 but have gone 33-49, 30-42 and 31-41 the last three seasons, the last two after selecting 'King' Zion as the first pick of the 2019 Draft. The 2-1 Hawks open a three-game road trip tonight in New Orleans against the 1-3 Pelicans. Atlanta crushed the Mavs 113-87 in its season-opener at home but its first road game didn't go well, losing 101-95 at Cleveland. The Hawks rebounded to beat visiting Detroit 122-104 on Monday night but now will be tested tonight at New Orleans, a contest that 'kicks off' a stretch in which EIGHT of the team's next 10 games will be played away from home. PG Young leads a deep roster averaging 25.0 & 10.0 APG. Four more players average in double digits, led by Reddish, who averages 18.7 PPG off the bench. Starting center Capela is averaging a modest 8.7 PPG but leads the team averaging 11.7 RPG. New Orleans' starting lineup is under flex, as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe, while bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (27.0-7.5-4.8-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Both Graham (17.8 & 5.0 APG) and Valanciunas (17.3 & 15.0) have made immediate contributions plus Alexander-Walker (17.3-5.5-7.8) has made great strides in his third season. The problem? No other Pelicans player is averaging as much as 6.0 PPG. The Pelicans finished a three-game road trip of their own with their first victory of the season, 107-98 at Minnesota on Monday. First-year head coach Willie Green called the win "refreshing" after starting the season with three consecutive losses. The Pels are not a strong defensive team and while Atlanta's defense has been great to this point (97.3 PPG ranks 2nd), I don't see that as being a sustainable number over the long-term, as the Hawks allowed 111.4 PPG last season. Regression in that department is going to happen sooner, rather than later. I'm expecting a very up-tempo game tonight so go O-V-E-R! |
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10-27-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on the Was Wizards at 7:40 ET. Boston opened the season losing at New York (138-134 in 2 OTs) and then returned home and got 'spanked' 115-83 by the Toronto Raptors. That result was the team's worst home loss since March of 2007 and was an 'ugly' home debiut for Boston's first-year head coach Ime Udoka. The etam was booed off the floor with Udoke saying recently, "I think the Toronto game was an aberration. We were building on that, playing the way we wanted to." He's referring to Boston winning its next two games, 107-97 at Houston and 140-129 (in OT) at Charlotte. The 2-2 Celtics are back in front of the hometown crowd again tonight, hosting the 2-1 Washington Wizards. Washington opened with two straight wins but lost 104-90 at the Brooklyn Nets on Monday for their first loss of the season. Despite the loss, the Wizards were happy to get Bradley Beal (21.0) back after their All-Star guard missed one game with a right-hip contusion. Beal led the team with 19 points against Brooklyn, although his points didn't come easily on an 8-for-22 shooting night, including 3-of-13 from 3-point range. PG Dinwiddie (19.0-5.0-7.0) is off to an excellent start with his new team plus a trio of former Lakers (can we call Washington, LA Lakers-East?) have made immediate impacts. PF Harrell (15.3 & 7.7) is coming off the bench (his preferred role), while Kuzma (14.3 & 13.0) and Caldwell-Pope (7.7) are starting at SF and PG, respectively. The Celtics feature the 'Dynamic Duo' of Jaylen Brown (28.3 & 7.3) and Jayson Tatunm (27.5 & 8.3), although Brown didn't play on Sunday at Houston. However, he returned Monday at Charlotte and scored 30 points while grabbing nine rebounds. Tatum was the star, scoring a game-high 41 points plus handed out eight assists. The Boston Celtics return home with momentum on their side after back-to-back road wins but starting center Al Horford (14.0 & 10.5) sat out Monday with a left- adductor strain. He is listed as probable. Washington's l104-90 oss at Brooklyn was a predictable letdown spot, as the Wizards were off a drawing 135-134 OT win at home over the Pacers, while the Nets needed a win to avoid a 1-3 start. The Wizards were still clearly "gassed" from their emotional win over Indiana but there's no better time to refocus and get back on track than right here and now in Boston. The Celtics enter his game with 'heavy legs,' off back-to-back victories (Sun & Mon), needing overtime to pull away for the 140-129 victory at Charlotte on Monday night. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Lakers at 8:40 ET. The Lakers were taken out in the first round of last season's playoffs by the Suns, as A.D. was hurt during the series and who knows what may have happened if he didn't go down with that injury? The Lakers then opened teh current with back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Suns, before edging the Grizzlies at Staples Center on Saturday, 121-118. San Antonio lost the "play-in" game last year and finished as the 10th seed in the West with a 33-39 record. The Spurs saw the departures of DeMar DeRozan (21.6-4.2-6.9), Rudy Gay (11.4 & 4.8) and Patty Mills (10.8) this past offseason, leaving a group of supporting players playing in a free-flowing offense. San Antonio opened with a home rout of Orlando but then lost at Denver and back at home to Milwaukee. LBJ (26.0-6.3-5.3) is expected to play on Tuesday despite suffering a leg injury midway through the win over Memphis. James ended up playing 40 minutes. He said afterward that his leg was "sore" and that he would receive continual treatment on it heading up to the dustup with the Spurs. LA woke up offensively against Memphis, shooting 53.6 percent from the floor and 53.3 percent from three-point range. Veteran Carmelo Anthony led all scorers with 28 points and he has averaged 17.7 PPG in three games. Anthony Davis added 22 points and eight rebounds and checks in at 25.7 & 11.0 so far. Westbrook (12.0-7.7-8.7) has yet to find his rhythm and I will make no predictions as to whether he will fit in well or not. The Spurs' Johnson (20.7) is a rising star and leads six players in scoring double digits. Starting alongside Johnson are guards White (15.3 & 6.7 APG) and Murray (13.3-8.0-7.0) plus forward McDermott (14.0) and center Poetl (12.3 & 9.3). Guard Walker (13.3) adds double digits off the bench. The bottom line is, coming off their first win of the year over a quality Grizzlies team, I believe that the Lakers win again here in this favorable matchup with "room to spare!" Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Phi/NYK Under at 7:40 ET. The 76ers are at MSG tonight to take on the Knicks, as both teams enter with 2-1 records. The 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs. They are playing without Ben Simmons (14.7-5.6-7.2), who demanded a trade over the summer after struggling in a seven-game second-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks plus guard Shake Milton (13.0 PPG last season) has yet to play with an ankle injury. The Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31 but lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. However, after impressive wins over Boston at home (138 points in two OTs) and at Orlando (scored 121 points), the Knicks lost to Orlando in MSG in a quick turnaround, being held to 104 points. |
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10-25-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 234.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Port/LAC Under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers welcome Portland to Staples Center on Monday night, still searching for their first win of the season. The Clippers have had to dig themselves out of double-digit deficits in both losses, exerting a lot of energy to get back into the game, only to fall short in the fourth quarter. LA trailed by as many as 19 points in a season-opening, 115-113 setback on the road vs the Warriors and then fell behind by as many as 16 points in a 120-114 home loss to the Grizzlies. The Clippers need to figure out how to make up for the loss of superstar Kawhi Leonard, who remains out indefinitely as he rehabs from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during the playoffs last June. Paul George has carried the scoring load for the Clippers offensively (35.0-10.5-5.0) but he needs some help from his teammates. The Blazers visit LA at 1-1. Portland was upset 124-121 at home by the Kings on Wednesday but then routed the Suns 134-105 on Saturday. CJ McCollum paced Portland with 28 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the floor, while Damian Lillard added 19 points and eight assists. Four Blazers are averaging in double digits, led by guards McCollum (31.0-4.5-3.0) and Lillard (19.5-3.5-9.0) plus center Nurkic (14.5 & 13.0). The Clippers have always prided themselves on playing tough D but enter having allowed 117.5 PPG over their first two. Expect LA to bounce back with a much better defensive effort in the third game of the season and remember, the Blazers brought in Chauncey Billups as their head coach to Improve Portland's defense. HUGE number here and I say go UNDER! Good luck...Larry
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:10 ET. |
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10-24-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -6 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 9:40 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers dropped their season opener 121-114 to the visiting Golden State Warriors and then lost another home game on Friday, 115-105 to the Phoenix Suns. Meanwhile, Memphis began its season by scoring 132 points in an 11-point home win over the Cavs and then last night, right here in Staples, beat the Clippers 120-114.
So what's up in LA? Will Westbrook eventually fit with James and Davis? Time will tell. Right now, after an 0-6 preseason, the Lakers are looking to avoid starting 0-3 for the SECOND time in their LeBron James-era. LA does catch Memphis in a tough spot here, playing on back-to-back in Staples, as part of a four-game Western trip that will conclude with Games against the Trail Blazers and the Warriors. In contrast, the Lakers' upcoming schedule is favorable, with games against the Spurs, Thunder, Rockets twice (both at home), followed by another home game against Oklahoma City. LA will never admit to it, but the "panic button" has been pushed. Expect to see a full four-quarter effort from the home side and I believe that'll result in the Lakers' first win and cover of the season.
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10-24-21 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 215.5 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Orl/NYK Under at 7:10 ET. Orlando went 48-34 in the 2017-18 season (lost in conference semis) but the last three years, has played .416 basketball without even 'sniffing' a playoff berth. Orlando is in full rebuild mode this season and new head coach in Jamahl Mosley, who doesn't have a lot to work with. Meanwhile, the Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31. New York lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. Orlando opened its season by allowing 123 points at San Antonio and then 121 points at home to the Knicks, to open 0-2. It could (will be) a L-O-N-G first season for the Magic and Mosley. The Knicks preceded their win over the Magic by topping the Celtics 138-134 in two OTs in their season opener. The Two teams now play a quick turnaround game Sunday night at MSG. It's really hard to know what to make with Orlando. The Magic's inexperience has been exposed during an 0-2 start. In their season opener Wednesday at San Antonio, the Magic led for much of the first quarter and remained within a possession of the lead well into the second quarter but fell 123-.97Â Against the Knicks on Friday at home, Orlando fell behind for good fewer than four minutes into the game. The Magic went 0-for-8 from the floor while being outscored 16-0 over the final 4:34 of the first quarter and trailed 36-16. Final score; 121-96. The Magic's starters in the first two games, Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, are all 23 years of age or younger. Plus all FIVE are first-round draft picks Randle (35-8-9) and Fournier (32 points) led the way in the 138-134 win over Boston, as New York shot 48.6% from the floor, including 17 of 45 on threes. Friday night in Atlanta, Randle had more modest totals of 21-10-7 and Fournier added "just" 18 points. However, the team shot 500.% overall, including 24 of 54 on threes. What's going on with ALL the threes, has the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau turned into Paul Westwood? The bottom line is, I can't see the Knicks pushing the pace in this one from the opening tip until the final horn, with Philadelphia coming to town next. New York has also seen the total go under the number in SEVEN of its last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which it scored 120 or more points in. Play under. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-21 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers will look to bounce back in the team's first home contest of the season Saturday against the visiting Memphis Grizzlies, after opening the campaign with a 115-113 road loss against the Golden State Warriors (Curry had 45 points). The Memphis Grizzlies are the opponent, coming in off a 132-121 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. |
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10-23-21 | Mavs v. Raptors +4 | Top | 103-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 7:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors flopped in their season-opening game Wednesday, falling 98-83 at home to the Wizards. However, Toronto rebounded last night with an impressive 115-83 upset victory at Boston. The Raptors travel tonight to Dallas to play the Mavericks, who got served in their season-opener 113-87 in Atlanta. Normally I avoid "playing on" teams in the second game of a back-to-back, but this is different. It's the start of the season, so fatigue simply is not an issue at this point of the campaign. Plus, this is a difficult travel spot for the Mavericks, as they make a rare trip "North of the Border." Let's take a closer look. |
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10-22-21 | Jazz v. Kings +6 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
 My 10* Game of the Week is on the Sac Kings at ET. The Utah Jazz compiled the best record in the league last season (52-20) but suffered the disappointment of a second-round playoff exit. As for the Sacramento Kings, they finished 31-41 last season, extending the team's almost unfathomable 15-year playoff drought (longest active in the NBA). The Jazz opened with a 107-86 home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder (held the Thunder to just 37.4% shooting), while the Kings opened their season with an impressive 124-121 road win over the Portland Trail Blazers (both played on Wednesday). Naturally, the Jazz are a better team than the Kings (duh!) and series history points to Utah (Jazz have won 13 of the past 15 meetings) but I've got a feeling the Kings will be much more competitive in the 2021-22 season. Utah had six players in double digits against the Thunder, led by Bogdanovich's 22. Gobert had a double-double (16 & 21) but Mitchell (26.4 PPG last season) had a modest 16 on 6 of 17 shooting (including 3 of 10 on threes). The Kings' Harrison Barnes carried the Kings with career highs of 36 points and eight 3-pointers. PG De'Aaron Fox added 27 points and eight assists plus center Richaun Holmes had 21 points and 11 rebounds (Buddy Hield scored 17 points off the bench). Here's the rub. As noted above, the Jazz have won 13 of the last 15 against the Kings and that includes all three last season, with an average winning margin of 29 points. In fact, Utah set a franchise record for points when it demolished the Kings 154-105 in Sacramento on April 28. My bet? The Kings 'sneak up' on the Jazz, who could be forgiven for taking Sacramento lightly in only the second game of the season. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets each opened the new season with wins. The Spurs destroyed the Magic 123-97 at home in their opener, while the Nuggets beat the Suns 110-98 in Phoenix, getting a measure of revenge after Suns swept the injury-depleted Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs last June. San Antonio lost the "play-in" game last year and finished as the 10th seed in the West with a 33-39 record. Life gets tougher for the Spurs tonight in Denver. The Spurs saw the departures of DeMar DeRozan (21.6-4.2-6.9), Rudy Gay (11.4 & 4.8) and Patty Mills (10.8) this past offseason, leaving a group of supporting players playing in a free-flowing offense. Dejounte Murray (15.7-7.1-5.4 in 2020-21) is now the "go-to" guy in San Antonio and with DeMar DeRozan gone, Derrick White (15.4 last season) is expected to take on a much bigger role this season for Greg Popovich. All five SA starters scored in double digits vs the Magic, while Vassell (19) and Walker (17) were the top-two scorers for the Spurs, coming off the bench. Denver is much healthier than it was at the end of last season but Jamal Murray is still rehabbing from his ACL tear suffered in April. Forward Aaron Gordon, who came over in a trade with the Magic in March, looks 100 percent and Will Barton has his legs back after struggling with knee and ankle injuries in the spring. Most significant is the health of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. He is the key to the Nuggets' offense, which he showed in Wednesday's win by finishing with 27 points and 13 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. signed an extension before the season and had 15 points plus Gordon, who also signed an extension, had 12 points and a huge block in the fourth quarter that helped the Nuggets keep the lead. Denver has the depth and talent to step up over the first half of the season until star guard Jamal Murray finally returns from injury. However, as noted above, Popovich has a roster of players to run his free-flowing offense. Case in point, SEVEN players scored in double digits vs Orlando. The Spurs got a 'breather' vs the Magic but now play their next three games against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers. San Antonio's depth could be the difference here (ATS), as Denver's reserves struggled in the preseason against Phoenix. Collectively the bench was a minus-52 but played better in the second half when Malone kept one or two starters in the game with reserves. The starters were a plus-112. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:40 ET. The Toronto Raptors are coming off a 98-83 home loss to Washington, while Boston has to be feeling a little "gassed," after an opening 138-134 setback in two OTs at Madison Square Garden vs the Knicks, The Raptors struggled offensively in their first game (leading scorer Siakam recently returned to practice in a limited capacity after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder) but the defense was good in holding the high-scoring Wizards to just 98 points. Fred VanVleet had 12 points, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals, while OG Anunoby had 11 points, 10 rebounds, and two steals. Toronto shot 30.9% overall, including 20.6% on threes. While Toronto's first game saw both teams score under 100 points, the Celtics and Knicks each topped 130 points, albeit in two overtimes. Jaylen Brown went off for a career-high 46 points in Wednesday's season opener at the New York Knicks (grabbed nine rebounds and dished out six assists) but fellow All Star Jayson Tatum struggled with 20 points on 7-of-30 shooting, making just TWO of 15 shots from long distance. Toronto had been one of the NBA's best teams for FIVE straight seasons, but dropped off last season in going just 27-45. Similarly, the Celtics made the Eastern Conference Finals in THREE of four seasons, before going just 36-36 and losing in the playoffs' first round last season. Head coaching 'savior' Brad Stevens is now in the front office and Friday's game will mark the regular season home debut for Celtics new head coach Ime Udoka. Toronto's Nick Nurse, NBA coach-of-the-year in the 2019-20 season, may just have a trick or two up his sleeve for Udoka. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-21-21 | Clippers +4 v. Warriors | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TNT game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:00 ET. The Warriors looked great in beating the Lakers 121-114 in Los Angeles on Opening night. The Warriors return to the Bay Area tonight to host the LA Clippers, who will be the last team to take the court for the 2021-22 NBA season. Stephen Curry opened the season with a triple-double (21-10-10) and the Golden St bench outscored LA's 55 to 29, which would turn out to be the difference in the end. The Clippers, who finished EIGHT wins ahead of the Warriors last season. Of note, they will tip off their new campaign without two of their top players, Kawhi Leonard (24.8-6.5-5.2) and Serge Ibaka (11.1 & 6.7). Leonard is coming off an ACL surgery that could cost him the entire season, while Ibaka is being brought along slowly after back surgery. Clippers forward Paul George (23.3-6.6-5.2) was impressed that Golden State could take down the preseason Western Conference favorite on a night when star Stephen Curry shot just 5-for-21. "They move the ball. It's scary," George said. "Steph didn't shoot it well, and they still win." George was fantastic in last year's postseason after Kawhi went down and he's the clear leader this season. PG Jackson played excellently down the stretch and throughout the postseason and is joined in the backcourt by the newly acquired Eric Bledose (14.0-3.9-4.3 in his career). The Clippers also picked up Justice Winslow, who if healthy, is a talented player. The Clippers lost 14 of their last 15 games at Oracle Arena in Oakland but have won THREE of four since the Warriors moved into the Chase Center across the bay in San Francisco. In fact, the Clippers won the very first game played in this building two years ago, running away with a 141-122 victory. Ivica Zubac, who is expected to get the starting call tonight in Ibaka's place, recorded the first double-double in Chase Center history that night with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Golden State has a lot of young faces, and it's still playing without Klay Thompson as well. I see a SU win by the Clippers but will of course, take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | 76ers v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the NO Pelicans at 8:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs, As for the New Orleans Pelicans, they were a HUGE disappointment, finishing 31-41 (two games below the playoff 'cut line') despite the presence of 'King Zion.' The two teams opener their respective seasons tonight in New Orleans with BOTH playing without a marque player. Ben Simmons (14.3-7.2-6.9) took most of the blame for Philly's playoff loss to Atlanta but backed off his holdout and reported to Philadelphia for a mandatory COVID test Oct 11, then passed through the NBA protocols and returned to practice Sunday. However, Sixers head coach Doc Rivers suspended Simmons for one game because of "conduct detrimental to the team" on Tuesday. Moving back to New Orleans, forward Zion Williamson (27.0 & 7.2) remains out indefinitely as he works his way back from offseason foot surgery. "I just thought he was a distraction today," Rivers said Tuesday after practice. "I didn't think he wanted to do what everybody else was doing. It was early. It wasn't a big deal. I just told him he should leave. We went on with practice." The Sixers were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but were knocked out of the playoffs at home when the Atlanta Hawks prevailed 103-96 in Game 7 of a conference semifinal series. Simmons averaged just 9.9 points in the series, made one-third of his free throws and passed up a layup down the stretch of the decisive game. He later demanded a trade. And the saga continues. However, Philadelphia is expected to be one of the top teams in the NBA again, with returning starters Joel Embiid (28.5 & 10.6), Seth Curry, Tobias Harris (19.5 & 6.8) and Danny Green. New Orleans' starting lineup also is uncertain as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe and bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (23.8-4.9-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Josh Hart (9.0 & 8.2) is also a very UNDERVALUED contributor. Philly's been a terrific home team the last few seasons but has been vulnerable on the road. I believe Valanciunas (15.0 & 9.8 LY with Memphis) will make a big difference this season for the Pelicans plus Simmons' offseason contract dispute has been a huge distraction for the 76ers. I think they'll struggle with consistency to begin the season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 106-124 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Season Opener is on the Hou Rockets at 8:10 ET. Houston was a Western Conference-worst 17-55 last year, while Minnesota wasn't much better at 23-59. The Rockets initiated a full rebuild following the early-season trade of James Harden and will open the new season with an exciting, albeit overwhelmingly youthful, roster. As for the T-wolves, they missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season and posted a losing record for the 15th time in 16 years! Minnesota fired its lead basketball executive (Gersson Rosas) just prior to the start of training camp and head coach Chris Finch will enter his first full season on the bench trying to steer a long wayward ship on course (Finch is Houston' FIFTH coach in just seven years!). The Rockets had a great haul in the recent draft with SG Jalen Green (No. 2 overall pick bypassed college to play in last year's G-League) plus the 6-10 Alperen Sengun (Turkey), the 6-8 Usman Garuba (Spain), and guard Josh Christopher (ASU). 2nd-year head coach Stephen Silas needs to blend that youth with veterans like Wall, Gordon, Augustin and Theis. A real player to watch will be Christian Wood, who averaged 21.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG in 41 games before getting hurt. The good news? Wood comes into this season with a clean bill of health. Karl-Anthony Towns is a force to be reckoned with, coming off a season in which averaged 24.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG. SG Edwards (19.3 & 4.9) and PG Russell (19.0 & 5.8 APG) are both quality players. Minnesota didn't have a lot of room under its current salary structure to do much in the offseason but the potential for growth might come defensively (Minnesota allowed 117.3 PPG last season). Offseason additions of Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince to Jaden McDaniels, Josh Okogie and Jarred Vanderbilt could help elevate Minnesota in the defensive rankings. Taking it all in, I see this game as a coin flip and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points. Excluding only the Sacramento Kings, the Timberwolves have become the NBA's picture of dysfunction and discord. Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 121-132 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Game of the Week is on the Cle Cavaliers at 7:05 ET. LBJ 'flew the coop' for a second time in Cleveland, after the 2017-198 season. The Cavs have gone 19-63, 19-46 and 22-50 in the three years since. However, "The Evan Mobley Era" in Cleveland Cavaliers history tips off Wednesday night when the Cavs visit the Grizzlies in Memphis. The 6-11 Mobley had a five-star high school career and then burst onto the national scene by leading USC into the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last March (averaged 16.4 PPG on 57.8% shooting while grabbing 8.7 RPG ). Memphis finished last season 38-34 (42-30 ATS record was among the best in the NBA) and ended a three-year playoff drought (note: that drought was preceded by a seven-year postseason run!) Mobley was the third overall pick was kept under wraps most of the preseason, averaging just 25.5 minutes per game, but nonetheless still found time to lead the Cavaliers in rebounds (7.6) and blocks (1.6). Jarrett Allen (13.2 & 9.9) was retained on a long-term deal to serve as Mobley's 'bodyguard' plus the 6-11 Markkanen was acquired in a trade in August after having spent his first four seasons in Chicago, averaging 15.6 & & 7.1. Veteran PG Ricky Rubio (4th team, averaging 11.0 PPG and 7.6 APG in his career) has been imported to help inspire a young backcourt. That backcourt is led by Sexton (24.3 & 4.4) and Garland (17.4 & 6.1 APG). The Grizzlies' Jaren Jackson Jr. came into the league with much the same hype as Mobley when Memphis made him the No. 4 pick in 2018. The former Michigan State star has averaged 15.4 points in his first three seasons. Jackson missed the Grizzlies' first 56 games last year while rehabbing a knee injury suffered the previous season. He wound up taking the court just 16 times, the last two of which being arguably his best, when he averaged 18.0 points in losses to Utah in Games 4 and 5 of their first-round playoff series PG Ja Morant (19.1 & 7.4 APG) is terrific plus Dillon Brooks (17.2) and Kyle Anderson (12.4 & 5.7) are also back. A big change is the addition of center Steven Adams (just 7.6 & 8.9), who was swapped for Jonas Valanciunas (17.1 & 12.5) in a trade with the Pelicans, which I feel is a downgrade. Cleveland made some nice moves in the offseason and I expect it to compete on Opening Night. Yes, the Grizzlies still have their key pieces in place, but I think there'll be an adjustment period with Valanciunas out of the picture. Interestingly, the Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games played in this building. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Suns. I had a play on the Suns in Game 5 and while that pick obviously fell flat, I think that Phoenix will at the very least, take Game 6 right down to the wire. Many felt that the Suns were going to sweep the Bucks in four straight in this series and it definitely appeared as if that could happen after Phoenix took the early 2-0 lead. But it's been all Milwaukee since, as the Bucks have a golden opportunity to close out and win the title this evening. It's difficult to beat a team in three straight games. No matter who the opponent is. I think Milwaukee is going to struggle to put away this talented and desperate Suns side. One constant throughout for Phoenix has been the steady play of Devin Booker, who has 82 combined points over his last two games. The Suns bench only produced 15 points last time out, but I don't expect that to happen twice. Phoenix is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge two straight SU/ATS losses to an opponent as well. Look for Chris Paul to bounce back with a big game here and for the Suns to fight tooth and nail until the final buzzer. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Suns. I've been riding the Bucks the last couple of games, but here I'm going the other way in Game 5. So far home court advantage has proven to be the difference-maker for these teams, with the Suns winning Game's 1 and 2 handily, before the Bucks responding in kind in Milwaukee in Game's 3 and 4. Khris Middleton had his biggest game of the Finals so far for the Bucks in Game 4, scoring 40 points, grabbing six boards and dishing out four assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 14 boards and eight assists. Antetokounmpo has been unbelievable so far in the Finals, but other than his big Game 4 appearance, Middleton hasn't been a very big factor in this series. The same thing can be said for the struggling Jrue Holiday, who was just 4 of 20 for 17 points in Game 4 for the Bucks. Clearly, Phoenix has to be happy its back home. That includes Chris Paul, who uncharacteristically struggled in back-to-back games in Milwaukee. Suffice it to say, I don't expect lightning to strike a third time tonight. I say Paul bounces back here at home. Devin Booker led the way in a losing cause for the Suns in Game 4 with 42 points. Paul and Booker have to be feeling confident here though finally, as note that Phoenix is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 home games and 46-19-1 ATS in its last 66 against teams with winning records. After back-to-back victories, a letdown is imminent here for Milwaukee, which is in fact a poor 3-11 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. I look for this home court trend to continue in Game 5. And if this keeps up, we're heading for a Game 7 before you know it! Lay the points, the play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bucks. Gentlemen. I had a play on the Bucks in Game 3, a blowout winner and if you didn't get to read that analysis, I'm going to share it now, as the logic and reasoning behind that pick, for the most part also directly apply to my Game 4 selection on Milwaukee as well: GAME 3 ANALYSIS I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce back in Game 3. I'll further add here in Game 4, that the Suns are now going to be forced to double and triple-team Antetokounmpo after his back-to-back historic performances, which will finally give Middleton and Holiday a golden opportunity to break out of their respective funks with a huge game. I say the momentum has now swung back in favor of Milwaukee and I believe the "home court" advantage will once again prove to be a difference-maker as well. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce-back in Game 3. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I think the Bucks will make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive in Game 2. Phoenix had significant advantages in Game 1, which it won't have here. It had a few days of rest between series to focus and regroup. The Bucks finished their series with the Hawks and almost immediately got on a plane to Phoenix. Giannis Antetokounmpo was also a huge question mark going into Game 1. The Bucks had to have two games plans, with or without their super star in the line-up. He played, he was decent and his injury is now behind him. Now Milwaukee can properly focus with its full line-up and I say that's a huge difference here in Game 3. The Suns haven't been perfect during the playoffs, with big lapses in form from game-to-game throughout the Clippers series. This Bucks team is better than Los Angeles in my opinion. Especially with Antetokounmpo now back to full health. I'm not trying to take away how great Chris Paul, Devin Booker and De'Andre Ayton are and have been leading up to this moment, but there's no way the Suns are sweeping this series. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-06-21 | Bucks +6 v. Suns | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I think there's value to be had here on the undermanned and underdog Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns had a hell of a time putting away Paul George and the Clippers, who had to play without star Kawhi Leonard, arguably a top 3 player on the planet. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. Clearly, that's a huge issue for the Bucks. But I say it's more of an issue over the long-term. Milwaukee will throw its best possible shot here in an attempt to pull off an upset. The Bucks are deep and aren't going to be afraid of Devin Booker whatsoever. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez have the talent and experience here to pull off an outright upset. That's easier said than done though obviously. The Suns are 33-11 at home. Milwaukee is 25-20 on the road. These teams played twice in the regular season. The Suns won both. Both by a single point. It's double-revenge time here for Milwaukee. With Giannis in the line-up, this line drops to right around +2.5 for the Bucks likely. The Bucks are sitting pretty heading into Game 2 if they can somehow pull off the outright here, as Antetokounmpo would be expected to then return. I say Milwaukee fights tooth and nail and at the very least, takes this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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07-03-21 | Bucks +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 6 SHOWDOWN is on the Bucks. Whether Trae Young plays here or not, I like the Bucks to dig deep and find a way to end this series here and now. They'll be doing that without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hyper-extended his knee. But Milwaukee was able to win Game 5 handily without its super star as well. The Hawks managed a Game 4 victory at home without Trae Young, but his absesnce was definitely felt in Game 5. Young is listed as a "GAME TIME DECISION" for Game 6. Clearly, if Young does play, he's not going to be at 100% health. Khris Middleton is averaging 22.7 points and 4.7 assists in the playoffs, and he and Jrue Holiday, who is the third double-digit scorer, definitely stepped up and filled the void last time out. Brook Lopez was also key. I think this group has what it takes to end this series, whether Young plays or not. Bobby Portis was another player who stepped up big for Milwaukee, and with group contributions like that, I can't see Atlanta keeping pace down the stretch. While clearly the outright win is very possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Bucks. The Hawks managed a win at home without Trae Young in the lineup in Game 4, but I think the Bucks will bounce-back and take advantage of familiar surroundings on Thursday night. Young will almost assuredly being play tonight, but even if he does suit up, one has to wonder about his health/form? Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.2 PPG for Milwaukee, but he's out in this one most likely because of a knee injury he suffered last time out. Expect Khris Middleton to pick up the slack here. Much like Atlanta winning without its star in Game 4, I believe Milwaukee can rally here and do the same here on its own floor. Note that Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 90 points or less in. These are two tired and banged up teams. I say though that it's Atlanta which is primed for a letdown here after its upset win in Game 4. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest as well. With its leader sidelined with injury, look for the home side to dig deep and to post a solid SU/ATS victory on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Hawks/Bucks. Even without Trae Young playing (he could), I think Game 4 sets up as more of an offensive affair, than a defensive one. Young is obviously a big part of this Hawks offense, but this is a feisty Atlanta team which won't be going down without a fight. John Collins, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be pressed to fill the void. And for Milwaukee, it can obviously smell the blood in the water now. The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points and 13 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 23.1 points and 4.7 assists. Jrue Holiday is a third double-digit scoring threat for Milwaukee.  Young will do everything in his power to play tonight (obviously), but as I stated above, whether he does or not, this one has the feel of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a tight defensive "chess match." This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 5 SHOW-DOWN is on the Clippers (analysis posted shortly). Kawhi Leonard will not be playing in this contest, but I think that Paul George and this veteran Clippers team won't be going down without a fight. George had 23 points and 16 boards in his team's 84-80 Game 4 loss. Reggie Jackson added 20 points. George though had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, finishing just five of 20 from the floor and only one of nine from range. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen twice, especially with elimination on the line. The Suns have been fantastic, exceeding everyone's expectations all year. There's also no question that they're in unchartered territory here. I think Phoenix is going to struggle to put away this desperate LA side. The Clippers earn a win here, and they have nothing to lose heading back home for a Game 6. Also note that the Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 points or less in. In what I expect to be another really tight game, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 TIE-BREAKER is on the Hawks. I think this is going to be a war until the final bucket. Whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to be the winner in my estimation, so because of that, I'm going to grab the points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.9 points and 13.2 rebounds for the Bucks in this series, while Trae Young is averaging 29.4 points and 9.9 assists for the Hawks. Milwaukee was much better at home than on the road this year. It's 32-11 ATS at home, and a mediocre 23-19 on the road. Atlanta is better at home too than on the road, going 22-23 away from friendly confines and 28-13 ATS on its own floor. In fact note, the Hawks are 20-6 ATS their last 26 here. Atlanta hasn't lost back-to-back games since May 1st and it's done a great job in making adjustments after a setback each time during the playoffs. I look for that trend to continue here from Nate McMillan, who would have also been a great candidate for Coach Of The Year honors. Grab the points, but don't be shocked if it's outright. Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 THRILLER is on the Clippers. Devin Booker and Chris Paul looked exhausted and out of sync in Game 3. I think that Paul George and the Clippers can take advantage here in Game 4 and post a second straight victory on their own floor. Paul had 15 points, 12 assists and three steals, while Booker had 15 points in the setback. Paul was just five of 19 from the floor, while Booker was just 5 of 21. George had 27 points and 15 points, while Ivica Zubac and 15 points and 16 boards. Patrick Beverely had a decent game with eight points and six boards, but he played really good defense against Booker and I expect the veteran to bring that same intensity tonight in Game 4. The Clippers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and they have the experience and home floor advantage to take Game 4 outright. In fact, if not for a tight loss in Game 2, one which could have easily gone in favor of LA, this series would have an entirely different feel to it right now. Even with Paul in the line-up for the Suns and Kawhi Leonard out for the Clippers, I don't think Phoenix is the better team. It's been a great team all year, but it's in unchartered territory at this point. The Clippers are seasoned veterans, all playing with a chip on their shoulders. I think LA is the better team and I expect it to even things up before heading back to Phoenix. The play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the UNDER Hawks/Bucks. To say I'm surprised by how well Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are playing would be an understatement. This isn't just a "playoffs" thing either, as Atlanta caught fire over the final month and a half of the regular season as well. The biggest turnaround has been the Hawks' suffocating defensive play. The Knicks also entered the post-season as one of the hottest teams in the league, but the Hawks absolutely shutdown Julius Randle and went on to win in five games. Atlanta got down early in Game 1 and had to battle from behind, but when the Hawks needed a couple of big defensive plays late, they did just that in the outright upset victory. The Hawks are obviously more comfortable playing with a lead, as they're then able to smother teams defensively. Milwaukee can't be pleased with the way it collapsed defensively. The Bucks can score, but they'll be out to atone for their lacklustre performance on the defensive end in Game 1. From a situational stand point, this one in my opinion for sure sets up as more of a defensive affair (and note, the Bucks have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded 115 or more points in.) Game 1 went over, but everything points to Game 2 staying under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Suns/Clippers. Game 1 went over the number in the Suns victory. LA looked good for three quarters, but then faded down the stretch after coming from behind to knock off the Jazz. Game 2 went under the number in Phoenix's slim 104-103 last-second victory. I think this back-and-forth pattern on the total continues in Game 3. LA has to be the aggressor from start to finish here. It's already been down 0-2 in every other series up to this point, before then rallying for victory. Will that happen again here? It's hard to imagine the Clippers advancing past the Suns, especially with Chris Paul returning to the line-up tonight for the visiting side. But Paul won't be in "game shape" quite yet and this is Paul George's best chance to get his team back into this series. Momentum is an almost tangible factor in the playoffs and while the Clippers came up just short in Game 2, I still think they can turn things around with a win today. And there are rumors that Kawhi Leonard could return before this series ends as well. So with a win today and Leonard returning for Game 5, the stage could be set for another big series come-back for the Clippers. Whether Leonard played or not, I didn't think the Clippers were going to get swept in this series. LA will have to be the aggressor from the start. With the home side pushing the pace, look for the Suns to match that tempo. I am expecting a faster-paced, wide-open shootout in Game 3. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS Game 1 DECIDER is on the Bucks. Am I impressed by the Atlanta Hawks? How could you not be! Ever since Nate McMillan took over as head coach, this has been a "different" Atlanta team. Many feel McMillan should have actually won Coach Of The Year, instead of Tom Thibedeux. Regardless, a renewed commitment on the defensive end is the reason why the Hawks are where they are right now. They shut down Julius Randle and the Bucks and they did the same to everyone on the 76ers with the last name that's not Embiid. And the Hawks did have troubles with the 76ers big man, who pretty much did what he wanted. The Bucks have a similar type player in Giannis Antetokounmpo (who is averaging 28.8 points and 13.6 rebounds in the playoffs), but he's even more dynamic and a bigger matchup issue overall in my opinion. And the steady play of Khris Middleton is another issue that the Hawks will have to contend with. I think the public is enamoured with Atlanta, but the sharp call is with Milwaukee to comfortably pull away down the stretch. I'm laying the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Clippers. LA had its chances in Game 1. Paul George looked great. LA was unable to take advantage of a Suns side without star Chris Paul in the line-up in Game 1, but it'll try to do so here. LA has been masterful in making game-to-game adjustments, even without start Kawhi Leonard in the line-up. Devin Booker got the last laugh in Game 1, but George and the Clippers have played well in a revenge spot, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they allowed 120 or more points in. Phoenix had the advantage with a couple extra days off between series, and that helped down the stretch. LA though still has to be encouraged that it was right in Game 1 until the end, despite shooting a poor 45 percent form the floor. I say that LA can keep the foot on the gas for a full four quarters in Game 2. The outright upset is possible, but in the end my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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06-20-21 | Clippers +5 v. Suns | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 1 DECIDER is on the Clippers. Two major players are out for each team. The Clippers are without star Kawhi Leonard, and the Suns will be without star Chris Paul. LA advanced by taking out the Jazz in six games, while Phoenix swept Denver in four games. The Clippers took two of three in the regular season. Paul George has filled in admirably though in place of Leonard and there's no reason not to think that he can't carry over that momentum here. George averaged 29.2 points to beat Utah. Terance Mann had a career night with 39 points in the Game 6 win over the Jazz as well. The big question here is, will rest lead to rust for the Suns? It might. And then throw in the additional factor of not having your floor general to guide them, this does indeed set up as a letdown spot for Phoenix in my estimation (note that they are in fact just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 when playing with three or more days rest.) And conversely, the Clippers couldn't be more in-sync with each other right now, despite the absence of Leonard. I thinks "Playoff P" is for real and while I do believe the outright victory is possible, in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 7 DECIDER is on the Bucks. If Kyrie Irving and James Harden didn't get injured, this series would be over. But they did get injured. Irving won't be playing in this game, and clearly James Harden is far from being 100%. Kevin Durant is playing out of his mind right now, but the veteran has to be fatigued at this point and I think that the depth and experience that the Bucks bring to the table in Game 7 will be the difference-maker in the end. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 points with 17 rebounds and three assists for the Bucks in their dominant Game 6 victory and I can't see the short-handed Nets slowing him down tonight either. Durant had 32 in a losing cause in Game 6, but Harden added just 16, while Blake Griffin had only 12 points. Khris Middleton though had 38 points and ten boards for Milwaukee last time out. I think Brooklyn's injury issues do now finally come back to haunt it here in Game 7. A healthy and focussed Antetokounmpo is the correct call in Game 7. I'm on the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -120 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* MONEY-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Utah Jazz. Both teams are injured. Utah though is desperate to keep its season alive after falling 119-111 in Game on Wednesday. Donovan Mitchell is questionable for the Jazz, but Kawhi Leonard is still out for the Clippers. Paul George had one of the best games of his career last tie out, posting 37 points, 16 boards, five assists and two blocks, while Marcus Morris added 25. I just can't see lightning striking twice for these two players, who have been consistently inconsistent with their game-to-game performances over the last couple of season (George in particular.) The Clippers have been in "must win" mode for the last three games, but I just can't see them beating this Jazz team (with or without Mitchell), in four straight. Bojan Bogdanovic continues to play at a very high level for Utah, as he had 32 points in a losing cause last time out. I'm also expecting Rudy Gobert to step up his game here for Utah. Finally note that Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road and still 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while the Clippers are a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. George stepped up his game big time in the first game without Leonard, but I expect fatigue to be a factor here for the veteran. Look for the hungrier and more desperate Jazz to gut out a victory here on the road and send this one back to Utah for a decisive Game 7. The play is Utah on the money line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Nets/Bucks. Depending on when you played Game 5's total, you either won, lost or pushed. It was close. Most would have pushed on the closing line. Regardless, this series has been a very low-scoring one. And that's surprising, because Milwaukee finished as the No. 1 offense in the league in regular season. Brooklyn finished near the bottom in almost every defensive category as well. I think Game 6 will be a wide-open affair. Milwaukee let a 17-point lead slip away in Game 5, so clearly it'll be out to atone for that mess-up, and that means playing hard for a full four quarters. Can Kevin Durant duplicate his historic performance from Game 5? KD has been unstoppable so far in this series and I can't see that trend changing here in this critical moment. Despite the injuries to Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets role players are rallying and doing more than enough to support Durant. Harden has been cleared to play here, and he should be signficantly better after returning from injury and getting that first awkward game out of the way. Expect these two offensive-minded clubs to finally blast past this number with a competitive, higher-scoring Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Philadelphia 76ers. This has been a back-and-forth series. I think that trend continues here, as I like Philadelphia to bounce back after the Game 4 loss. It's all tied up now at 2-2, but the 76ers have to be feeling confident that they can recover at home. Philadelphia actually had a 13-point half-time lead. Somehow the Hawks managed to claw their way back into it, despite 76ers big man Joel Embiid going for 17 points and 21 boards. I had a play on the 76ers in Game 4, on the money line. Obviously I was not too happy the way that one ended. The price is too steep to play on the money line here, but I'm expecting a decisive victory anyways. The Hawks are still only averaging 107 PPG in the playoffs, while the 76ers lead all teams in the postseason with an average of 121 per contest. Philadelphia is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss, while Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on this floor. Look for the 76ers to answer here with a resounding victory after the Game 4 loss. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Brooklyn Nets. The Bucks have evened this series back up. Milwaukee has been less than impressive in this series though. It got destroyed in both games in Brooklyn, before then barely holding on for an 86-83 win in Game 3 at home. The Bucks looked a bit better in their 107-96 win in Game 4, but they still could barely pull away, even with the injury to Kyrie Irving. Now Irving is out for Game 5 and James Harden is also still sidelined with injury. But Kevin Durant is playing. And the Nets are still a deep and well-coached team. It's now or never for Brooklyn's role players to step and contribute here. The Bucks have struggled with consistency from game-to-game, especially on the road. The Nets have done well in this spot for bettors, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 at home and a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in their last eight in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. I like KD to defend home court. Outright victory? I'd say it's worth sprinkling a little on the money-line, but in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is Brooklyn. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-21 | 76ers -158 v. Hawks | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MONEYLINE PERFECT STORM is on the 76ers. For this selection, my advice is to just bypass the "spread" option entirely, and lay the price for the 76ers to win this game straight up. I do like the 76ers against-the-spread as well, but because this one's on the road, I have ultimately decided to lay what I deem to be a very reasonable price on the moneyline option. After getting the better of the 76ers in Game 1, it's been all Philadelphia in this series, as it's taken the next two. That includes a convincing 127-111 win here in Game 3. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The 76ers outshot the Hawks 58.2 percent to 47.6 percent from the field in Game 3, and 47.6 percent to 23.6 percent from three-point range. This is a bad matchup for the Hawks, who will need a superhuman effort from Trae Young every single night to have any hopes at pulling of an upset. The Hawks don't have an answer for Philly big man Joel Embiid either, who had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. While Atlanta had success slowing down the Knicks' offense, the trio of Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons is just too much now for the Hawks to handle. As I said, this one could be close at the end, so that's why I'm laying the price and taking the 76ers on the moneyline. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Nuggets. I thought Denver would put up a better fight than it has in this series. My hat goes off to the Phoenix Suns, who definitely look like the team to beat in the West this year. However, I don't expect the Nuggets to get swept in this series. I believe Nikola Jokic will dig deep here and carry his team with his biggest game yet so far in the series and playoffs. And I do finally expect his teammates to give him support. The Suns are dominating in almost every facet right now, so it's really difficult to say anything negative about Chris Paul, Devin Booker and company, but after three straight victories over this really good Denver team, I absolutely am now finally predicting a letdown here for Phoenix. The Suns would love to clinch this series in front of the hometown crowd anyways! Obviously that's not really the case, Phoenix will try its hardest to end the series here and now, but with the knowledge that it can still do that at home in Game 5, it does add to our theory here of this being a "letdown" spot for the visitors today. The Nuggets are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a ten points or greater home loss to an opponent. My "SITUATIONAL STUNNER" packages are based upon a great "situation" and this particular contest lines up great in every respect in my opinion. While the outright is clearly possible, in the end let's grab the points. The play is Denver. Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Clippers. It appears more and more that it'll be the Suns and Jazz playing for the Western Conference crown. I don't think the Clippers are going to get swept and if there's no better time than now if they're going to get back into this series. The Jazz held serve on their own floor, but star Donovan Mitchell was seen limping back to the locker room. He'll play, but his health is a concern here for Utah. Especially with a 2-0 lead, it's hard to know exactly how hard to play Mitchell, or to continue to play him if they go down early in Game 3. The Clippers return home and I think Kawhi Leonard and Paul George hae more than enough in the tank to get back into this series. LA has been great in this position for bettors as well, going 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. Utah on the other is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 on the road against teams with winning home records. And the Clippers did win at home, as they're 27-13 ATS overall here this season. The stage is set for a LA bounce-back. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL PLAY is on the Nuggets. The Suns have been impressive. They beat the Lakers in six games, but there was an asterisk beside that series win, because of the injuries to both Anthony Davis, Lebron James and others. Denver isn't at full strength either, with star player Jamal Murray suffering a season-ending injury about a month before the regular season ended. The Nuggets' strength has always been their depth and experience though, and with league MVP Nikola Jokic now playing with a chip on his shoulder here in an attempt to get his team back into this series, I do indeed expect Denver to do just that in this crucial Game 3 at home. D'Andre Ayton has so far been up to the task of "slowing down" Jokic, but note that the Suns have always struggled in this building, going just 3-7 ATS in their last ten on this floor. An 0-3 hole will clearly be too much to climb out of. Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. were non-existent over the first two games, but I say a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered for Denver in Game 3. Lay the short points, the play is the Nuggets. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL PLAY is on the Hawks. Atlanta beat the Knicks in five games, and then it absolutely accomplished what it set out to do in the first two games in Philadelphia, and that was to simply earn a "split." Now returning home, I think this deep and talented Hawks side under the guidance of Nate McMillan have what it takes to rebound here and take the series lead again. Atlanta had a significant home-court advantage thoughout the regular season, going 25-11, and it's also 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it gave up 115 or more points in (lost Game 2 by a score of 118-102.)Â Finally, note that the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning home record, while the 76ers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record. Atlanta has covered the spread at home in almost 66 percent of its games on its own floor, which is No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia on the other hand has only covered the number in 47 perecnt of its road games thi syear, which is the eighth worst in the league overall. I'll bank on Trae Young and these young Hawks bouncing back on their own floor in Game 3. The play is Atlanta. Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bucks. Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets have a 2-0 lead in this series, but there's no way (in my opinion right now anyways), that the Bucks are going to get swept in this series. And what better time than now to try and get back into it with their first game back at home where they went 28-10 ATS this seaosn. Brooklyn has been decent on the road as well with a 21-17 ATS record, but it's still a lot better at home than away from friendly confines. And so this is it for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Is he the MVP? Is he able to carry this Bucks team on his back in his own building to a single victory? He's so far been "OK" in this series, averaging 24.3 points and 13.7 boards per game. Milwaukee struggled with its outside shooting in Brooklyn, but I just can't see that trend continuing for a third-straight game, especially on its own floor. The Nets were one of the worst defensive teams in the league during the regular season, but somehow they've been amazingly consistent on that end of the floor now that the playoffs are here. But with the continued absence of James Harden putting extra minutes onto KD and Kyrie Irving, fatigue is a major concern now for the Nets at this point as well. In this essentially do or die scenario, I'm banking on Giannis doing more than enough to cover this small spread. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Nuggets/Suns. Game 1 went under the number in the Suns 122-105 win, but I expect more of a defensive affair in Game 2. The Nuggets have been leaning on big man Nikola Jokic all season, and just yesterday he finally earned his first MVP award ever. Jokic and the Nuggets are going to be even extra motivated now to deliver an upset victory, before this series shifts back to Denver. The Suns played to four straight "unders" to open their series with the Lakers, but they've now seen the total go over in two straight. We know Phoenix can score, but the big difference this year for the Suns has been their progression on the defensive end. I think the Suns can duplicate their defensive performance from Game 1 here, although I think they'll have their hands full this time for a full four-quarters with an experienced and aggressive Denver defense. When I look at this game from a situational stand point, it definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, than a run-and-gun shootout in my opinion. But note as well, Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss of 15 or more points against an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
10* THIRD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Clippers. It took the Clippers seven games to advance, but I think they can keep the momentum rolling here after back-to-back victories over the pesky Mavericks. The Jazz have been off for over a week, and yes, I do absolutely think that "rest" will lead to "rust" here. Kawhi Leonard has refound his MVP form after a slow start to the playoffs. He enters this series off a huge Game 7, pouring in 28 points and grabbing ten boards with nine assists and four steals. Marcus Morris and Paul George have also found their stride. Utah rolled over the Grizzlies in five games, but that was almost a week ago. Can Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert pick up where they left off? I'll point out that the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Jazz are just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing with three or more days of rest. Timing and chemistry is crucial to success in the playoffs. The Clippers have "found their groove" finally in my opinion. I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Bucks. I like the Bucks to bounce back here and find a way to "steal" Game 2. So far in the playoffs the Bucks are averaging 116.2 PPG, while conceding 101.4. Clearly, Game 1 didn't go as planned. Expect to see another big game from star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 25.6 points and 14.2 rebounds. The Nets are averaging 122 points and allowing 111.3. No big surprise that Kevin Durant has so far led the way offensively, as he's averaged 32 points and three assists so far. The loss of James Harden is a big one for the Nets. Now Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have to log considerably more minutes. They're a handful, but the Bucks have to be liking their chances for a bounce back here (note that they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest.) Milwaukee shot terribly from the floor in Game 1, which is very atypical. Look for the Bucks to come out and take advantage of what will be a tired Nets side. Obviously the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Hawks. Whether 76ers' big man Joel Embiid plays or not, I like the visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Atlanta made the surging Knicks look like the Knicks of old in its opening round series win. The Hawks were dominant defensively, effectively slowing down the red hot Julius Randle. Clint Capela is a force to be reckoned with down low for the Hawks, and he's an X-factor in this play for me. Trae Young averages 29 points and 9.8 assists against a stingy Knicks defense, and there's no reason not to think those numbers can't improve here against a less impressive 76ers' defense. With Embiid either out, or hobbled, the door is open here for Atlanta in Game 1. Nate McMillan has been a big difference-maker for Young and company and I believe he'll have something up his sleeve as well for the 76ers today. Outright win? Of course. But in the end my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is the Hawks. Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Bucks. This is going to be an interesting series. I think that Game 1 will be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, and in a scenario like that I'm definitely going to grab the points. Milwaukee rolled to four straight victories over the Heat, while Brooklyn needed five games to get past the Celtics. The Bucks led the league in scoring with 120.1 PPG. Giannis led the way with 23 points, 15 boards and 7.8 assists against the Heat. The Nets averaged 118.6 PPG during the regular season. Kevin Duran, Kyrie Irving and James Harden played just eight games together in the regular season. There are a couple of strong trends worth mentioning here, as Brooklyn is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home here against the Bucks, while Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the +3.5 to +5.5 points range. As I stated off the top, this one is going to come down to the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Clippers/Mavericks. This has been a highly entertaining series. Dallas has played better than most thought it would and it has a golden opportunity here to close out the Clippers. LA won't have the luxury here to sit back and play aggressive defense, instead it'll have to force the tempo here and outshoot this red hot Mavericks offense if it has any chance of extending this series to a seventh game. Situationally in my opinion, this one absolutely sets up as a "run-and-gun" shootout, rather than a grind it out "chess match."Â Each team is filled with offensive talent, and note that the Clippers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on the Lakers. The question is. Can LeBron James dig deep here and rally whatever teammates he has around him to beat Chris Paul and Devin Booker at home here in Game 6? The Suns rode 30 points from Booker to a big 115-85 win in Game 5. James had 24 points and seven assists for the Lakers. Andre Drummond and Dennis Schroder were absolute "no shows" though for the Lakers, and I do expect a much better effort from each here at home. You simply can't count out King James in big games. He's also never lost a first round series in his career. Clearly, this is the Lakers biggest game of the year. I just don't think the Suns have the experience to take out the defending champs on their own floor, especially with the knowledge that they have one last chance in their own building to finish it. Phoenix has actually also been an absolute train-wreck in this spot for bettors, going just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six on the road and a terrible 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a win of more than ten points. LA on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. I say "The King" has enough left in the tank to push this series to a Game 7. Lay the points, the play is the Lakers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -7 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
10* LEGEND on the Clippers. Dallas won the first two games. LA won the last two games. So far home-court advantage has been anything but in this series, but I expect that trend to end here. The Clippers come in off a dominant 106-81 win in Game 4, as Dallas star Luka Doncic has just 19 points, while teammate Kristaps Porzingis added 18. Doncic had a neck strain that clearly affected his play and one has to wonder what his current form is here as well? Kawhi Leonard has had a fire lit under him and now the Clippers are in "kill mode." Leonard has 29 points on 11 of 15 shooting in the Game 4 victory. LA looked great on the defensive end and in the transition game and with Doncic still ailing, I see an exact repeat of Game 4 occurring here in Game 5 as well. The Clippers now clearly have the momentum back in this series and I expect them to ride the wave. Look for LA to jump out to an early lead, and to never take the foot off the gas until it hears that final buzzer. Lay the points, the play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Cetlics. I don't think that Jayson Tatum and the Celtics will go down without a fight. The Nets are obviously a really difficult team to play against with three bonafide superstars that can score at will. Tatum is averaging 30.3 points and five boards in the playoffs. Marcus Smart and Evan Fournier have experience, and note that Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded 135 or more points in (lost 141-126 last time out.) Tue Nets were unbelievably efficient with their shooting in Game 4, but despite the victory, they did struggle on the defensive end. Outright victory? I'm definitley not calling for that. But I'll point out that the Celtics are a strong 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road. I say the Nets have a small mental letdown here, leaving the backdoor open just enough for the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5 | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Grizzlies. Memphis rode the wave from its two "play in" victories to an upset road victory at Utah in Game 1, but since then it's been the Jazz which has been the better team in this series. Donovan Mitchell didn't play for Utah in Game 1, but he's been key in its success over the last two games. Now, it's the Grizzlies turn to respond. The outright victory is definitely possible in my opinion. Memphis has already proven it can beat this Jazz team outright. This will be the Grizzlies "best shot," as a 3-1 hole heading back to Utah is going to be just too much for this young team to climb out of. Despite the Game 3 setback, note that Memphis is still 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. Utah shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in Game 3. That's amazing. I don't see that happening again here. It also hit 19 three pointers. That's also not going to happen again. This is a "must win" game for the Grizz and while they may not pull off the outright upset, everything in my opinion points to this one being a "nail-biter." Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. After the Clippers fought from behind to take Game 3, this series has suddenly become a lot more interesting. The Mavericks rolled to two straight road victories in LA to open this series, but the Clippers dug deep and managed to earn the Game 3 victory. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven been fantastic for the Clippers, but it was LA's aggressive defensive play in the second half of Game 3 which was the difference-maker, and I do now expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Dallas is going to have to find a way to slow down Leonard and George, or their two-game advantage is going to slip away quickly. One thing to note is that the Mavericks have in fact seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenage a ten points or greater SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. While the last two games have flown over the number, Game 4 sets up as a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Heat. Will Miami storm back and win four games in a row? Almost assuredly not. The Heat surprised everyone last season with their timely run to the Finals, but since then they've struggled to gain that same consistency. Milwaukee has played very well to this point, but not spectacularly. Miami though has for sure struggled across the board, which is uncharacteristic over three sraight games. Despite their win last time out though, note that Giannis and company are still just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. And despite losing Game 3, note that the Heat are still 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight at home. I say Jimmy Butler and the Heat don't go down without a fight today. This is a proud organization, filled with experienced talent and while the outright may not occur, everything does point to this one being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I'm grabbing the points every time. The play is Miami and the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -129 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* MONEYLINE PERFECT STORM on the Clippers. This series hasn't gone the way many predicted. Sure, some would have predicted that the Mavericks would be able to take one of the first two games in LA to open up this series, but not many would have had Dallas taking both. Now, with their backs against the wall, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and the Clippers will have to fight tooth and nail to get back into this series and to avoid another massive playoff upset. The Clippers actually lost both final regular season games to avoid having to play the Lakers, a decision which doesn't look the greatest at the moment. LA has struggled on the defensive end over the first two games, but that's very uncharacteristic, as the Clippers were fourth overall on that side of the courst during the regular season. The Clippers also lead the league in three-point shooting, but over the first two games they've also uncharacteristically struggled from range. I believe LA will make the necessary adjustments to "return to the norm" on both the defensive end tonight, and with its shooting performance. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks had a letdown in the playoffs last year after Kristaps Porzingis went down with injury and while they've looked great over these first two games, a letdown is imminent in my opinion. As note, Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS road victories. One last stat I'll point out is that LA has done very well in this building for bettors, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight here. With their season essentially on the line here, I like the Clippers to find a way to get the job done. Avoid the spread, the play is LA on the money-line. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 113-84 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Miami Heat. With their backs against the wall and desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole, I like the Heat to dig deep here in Game 3 and find a way to win and cover. Milwaukee barely held on for the 109-107 OT home win in Game 1, but it definitely looked like the better team in its 132-98 Game 2 victory. Miami is interestingly 7-1 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. The Bucks were 28-10 at home this year, and a mediocre 20-16 on the road. The Heat are 19-19 on the road, but 21-15 at home. I can't see Jimmy Butler held down for three straight games. Milwaukee is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. 17,000 people will be in attendance here for the Heat, and I say that matters! Look for Miami to claw its way back into this series. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Hawks/Knicks. Game 1 snuck UNDER the number, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 2. Clearly, the Knicks will be laying everything on the line here to try and even up this series and before heading to Atlanta. The Hawks have to be thrilled that they've already earned a split, but they'll be out to prove it wasn't a fluke and to take a commanding grip on this series with another big effort here as well. New York is known for its defense, as it's ranked among the best in several categories The Knicks, however, are going to have to be the aggressors here from the opening tip until the final horn in Game 2. Julius Randle was held in check in Game 1, but I can't see that happening to the MIP of the year in back-to-back games (and it's interesting to note as well that the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 105 points or fewer.) Atlanta got the win in Game 1 by the skin of its teeth, and that was with Randle having his worst performance of the season basically. Clearly, the Hawks can't be completely satisfied with their performance either. With the Knicks pushing the pace to try and even things up and to send a message to the Hawks before this series shifts to Atlanta, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the LA Lakers. The Lakers didn't look great in Game 1. Over the last two years, the Lakers though have been fantastic at making adjustments from game-to-game and I absolutely expect that to be the case today. The Suns had a few extra days off to prepare for Game 1, but I think LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the defending champs will indeed throw an entirely different look at Phoenix tonight. There was plenty of on-court drama between LeBron James and Chris Paul in Game 1. Paul and Devin Booker looked fresh, but we can expect the Lakers tough-nosed defenders to play much more aggressively here on those two players. LA even had a chance late, as they got very close, but it missed several wide-open three-point shots and was then never able to close the gap. Davis had a poor game as well, and said after that the Game 1 loss was his fault. It's that type of veteran leadership which is going to help LA bounce back here in Game 2 vs. this younger Suns side. In what I expect to be another tight game, look for the Lakers to ultimately pull away down the stretch, and to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 90 points or less in. The play is LA to STUN the Suns in Game 2. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -118 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
10* MONEY-LINE PERFECT STORM on the Denver Nuggets. Instead of worrying about a point spread, and because it's almost a "pick-em" anyways, I'm going to play Denver on the "money line" in this one. The backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum got the better of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on their own floor in Game 1, but I believe that Denver has the talent and experience to make the necessary adjustments to even things back up. Portland has already accomplished what it set out to do, and that's earn a difficult "split" over these first two games of the series, as it now has the "ball in its court" so to speak moving forward. Clearly, the last thing Denver can do is drop a second straight game here. And after four straight wins and covers, I do think that the Blazers will finally have a small letdown here. Denver finished the season ranked eighth in scoring with 115.0 PPG. With Portland's win in Game 1, these teams are now tied 2-2 in the season series straight-up, but the Blazers have covered in all four. I don't expect that lop-sided trend to continue here whatsoever, as note that the Nuggets are in fact a sharp 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed 120 or more points in. I believe Jokic will carry his team to a straight up victory here. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Lakers/Suns. If the Lakers are going to win this series, they're going to grind down the Suns defensively and wear out Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They'll also try and establish their big men throughout. The Lakers come into the playoffs fully healthy. The Suns will also have to double down on the defensive end in this series if they want to be successful. Phoenix has always been known for its scoring, but the big turnaround this season has indeed been on the defensive end, as it's held its opposition to an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%, which ranks tenth overall. LA will look to grind out possessions in an attempt to control the pace and flow and to take the game out of Paul's hands. Defensive intensity tends to pick up in the playoffs (obviously), and these are two of the best in the league on that end of the floor. Game 1 has under written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-21 | Celtics +8 v. Nets | 93-104 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the Celtics. Yes, it's been a difficult for Boston. A transition season, and one filled with plenty of injury issues. Despite that though, Boston is now in the playoffs and I believe it'll throw its "best shot" it has at the mighty Nets tonight. The Celtics didn't play well down the stretch of the regular season, but they looked great in their 118-100 play in victory over the Wizards. Jayson Tatum had 50 points, and he's going to be a matchup issue for this very poor Brooklyn defense. Brooklyn won its final five regular-season games. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden are clearly an unbelievable trio of talents, but they haven't ever played a lot of meaningful games together as a team. That's important at this time of year. The Celtics have been to hell and back together and they know what it takes to win in the playoffs. The players on the Nets have a lot of experience and individual successes in the playoffs, but never together as a team. I say that matters in Game 1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Heat. The Heat made it all way to the NBA Finals last year, as they caught fire late in the season and then snowballed that momentum all the way until the end. Miami beat the Bucks in five games in the ECF last year and I believe it'll at the very least, take today's game right down to the wire. Jimmy Butler missed all three regular season games agains the Bucks, but he's back to 100% health, and I think he's a big time "X factor" in this game (and series.) Butler averages 21.5 points, 6.9 boards and 7.1 assists per game. Miami also has three "lockdown" defenders to body up on Bucks' star Giannis Antetokuonmpo in Andre Igoudala, Butler and Bam Adebayo. Milwaukee is a great regular season team, but its big knock is that it can't perform in the playoffs. I'd argue, that Milwaukee's team this year isn't nearly as good as it was last season. The Bucks may go on to exorcise their demons here in this series, but I expect them to come out flat in Game 1. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the Grizzlies. My NBA Game of the Year was on the Warriors in their 113-101 regular season finale victory over these very Grizzlies, but for this final "play in" contest, I'm going with Memphis to exact a little revenge. The Warriors enter off a tight loss to the Lakers, losing straight-up, but covering the spread. The Grizzlies held on for a 100-96 victory over the Spurs, but they were unable to cover the 4.5 point spread. Memphis is healthier right now, and that's going to matter after so many tight and important games. These players are giving their all, and the Grizzlies' depth is going to play a big part here. Yes, Golden State has Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, but they're down James Wiseman, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Damian Lee. Golden State is coming off a crushing last-second loss to LeBron James, and now it faces a revenge-minded Grizzlies team that loves to body up on teams and get physical. Clearly, I believe the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | Top | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Wizards. The Wizards came close to pulling off an upset in Boston, but now they'll have to play the Pacers here to see who gets the eighth seed in Eastern Conference. Indiana is coming off a 144-117 win over Charlotte (I had the Pacers in that one), but I think it'll struggle to find the same energy here. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances for a bounce-back performance this year, as it took all three regular-season meetings between the clubs, winning 132-124, 154-141 and 133-132 in OT in Indiana. Indiana got a huge performance from Doug McDermott and Oshae Brissett, with issues to Myles Turner, Jeremy Lamb and Caris LeVert. Malcolm Brogdon played in the victory, but he's questionable here as well. The Wizards are tough on their own floor, and after the sub-par effort in Boston, they'll be out to push the pace from start to finish. They've been great in this spot recently for bettors as well, going 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Eastern conference. Washington is healthier and playing on its own floor. Everything points to a comfortable home side cover here in my opinion. Play on the Wizards. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Warriors/Lakers. If the Warriors are going to win this game, they're going to have to try to somehow break down the Lakers tough perimeter defense and get some open shots from the outside. If the Lakers are going to win this game, they're going to play tough perimeter defense, and use their big men from start to finish while on offense. With the home side's offense being run through the paint, I do indeed expect a more methodical pace here. Golden State has plenty of great young talent in Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins, but they're both in unchartered territory here. The defending champs are back to full strength essentially and I expect them to send an early message to the Warriors, and the rest of the league. Clearly, Curry has to have a monster game for the Warriors to win, but I just can't see that happening against this stout Lakers defense. LA only averages 109.5 PPG, so it's definitely not like the Lakers are blowing out teams on a nightly basis either. LA won the last two games in this series handily and while that may or may not happen here, in my opinion everything points to the under as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | Top | 117-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* PLAY-IN GAME OF THE YEAR on the Pacers. I don't think that the home-court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this contest. The Hornets enter the playoffs banged up and with zero momentum, as they've lost five in a row. Overall they average 109.5 PPG, while allowing 111.4. Terry Rozier averages 20.4 PPG and 4.2 assists, while LaMelo Ball adds 15.7 points and 5.9 boards. The Pacers have split their last ten games. Overall Indiana averages and concedes 115.3 PPG. Domantas Sabonis will be leaned upon heavily here with injuries to Brogdan and Turner. Charlotte has a bright future, and even making it into the "Play-In" tournament is a huge accomplishment for it. The Hornets though are a terrible 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog. I won't try to convince you that the Pacers are a great team, as that's not the case. But this is a game that I think they can win handily (and note that Indiana is a sharp 5-0 ATS in its last five at home.) Despite the injuries, Indiana is the smart play at home here in my opinion, as I look for Sabonis to lead his team to a comfortable win and cover. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Indiana. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Warriors. To say this is a "big" game would be an understatement. Both teams come into this contes on fire as well. Memphis enters having won five straight, while Golden State has also won five in a row. The winner of this contest will secure eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff race, and in my opinion, home court advantage simply can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Warriors play with the added incentive of revenge as well after losing the most recent matchup between the clubs 111-103 back on March 20th. Overall Memphis averages 113.5 PPG, while allowing 112.3. Golden State averages 113.7 PPG, while allowing 112.8 as well. This is a pressure packed situation, and who better to deliver than Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. have also emerged as fantastic talents. Listen, the Grizz are filled with great talent as well, and admittedly Jonas Valanciunas will be a matchup issue, but as stated above, I can't see the visiting side slowing down this veteran group on their own floor. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS their last five at home and 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded 110 or more points in. Lay the points, expect a decisive victory. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Bucks. I like the Bucks to take care of business on their home court here. THe Heat have won seven of eight, but they're primed for a letdown in my estimation in this difficult road venue. Overall Miami averages 107.9 PPG, while allowing 107.9 as well. The Bucks are equally as hot, and they're going to keep the foot on the gas here at home. Milwaukee has won seven of eight, and it averages 120.2 PPG, while conceding 114.3. Milwaukee wins at home by an average of 7.2 points. After five straight losses against-the-spread, and playing with revenge after a 119-108 loss to the Heat on December 30th, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 229.5 | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER On the OVER Twolves. The Celtics have lost five of their last six. They finish up their season in Washington, but I don't think they'll go down without a fight here vs. the Wolves. Boston is dealing with several key injury issues, but despite that I think this total will soar well over. Boston will be out to atone for a poor 102-94 road loss in Cleveland. Minnesota though would love nothing more than to earn a few more victories before the season ends. The Wolves have been hampered by injury all season, but they're healthier now than they've been all year. They've won six of their last ten and I believe they'll be out to control the tempo here, which means pushing the pace from start to finish. Finally, note that the over is 5-0 the last five in this series. I don't expect defense to be a concern for either team today. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-21 | Kings v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Grizzlies. The Kings have won six of their past eight games, but off a 116-110 road loss here just last night vs. the Grizzlies, I expect an even bigger final discrepancy in the score in tonight's game for the home side. Justin James exploded for 31 points for the Kings, and I am definitely not expecting "lighting to strike twice." The Grizzlies though have been steamrolling teams to end the season, healthier than they've been all year, they come into this one having won five of their last six games. Dillon Brooks had 30 points last night, while Jonas Valanciunas had 24. This one means a lot more for Memphis, as it continues to jockey for playoff positioning. Scheduling is also working in its favor in the second game of the back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it. I expect the Grizzlies to STUN the books here, and to win handily by double-digits. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-21 | Nuggets -6 v. Wolves | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
8* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Nuggets. The Nuggets aren't going to take the foot off the gas with the finish line so close in sight now. Denver is 45-24 and it's won 11 of its last 14. Most recently it took down Charlotte on the road by a score of 117-112. Nikola Jokic had 30 points, 11 board and six assists. Minnesota has won six of nine, so the Nuggets won't be taking anything for granted here either. Most recently it won 119-100 at Detroit. But hammering the Pistons is one thing, and beating Jokic and the Nuggets is quite another. Even on your home floor. Denver has also dominated this series in this building, going 21-4-1 ATS the last 26 here. Denver is in a dog-fight for positioning until the end. The thrill of playing spoiler doesn't last too long for teams out of contention. Look for the Wolves to have a letdown here vs. this powerhouse visiting side. Lay the points, the play is Denver. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-21 | Clippers v. Hornets +8.5 | Top | 113-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* ODDSMAKER ERROR on the Hornets. The Clippers have split their last eight games, but I think they get caught looking past their opponent today. Outright win? Probably not, but I absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. LA averages 114 PPG, while allowing 107.8. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 25 points and 6.5 boards for the Clippers. The Hornets are fighting, and they'll be hungry here after losing six of their last nine. Charlotte averages 109.7 PPG, while allowing 111.3. Terry Rozeir leads the nightly charge with 20.6 points and 4.2 assists per contest. LA has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Hornets are healthier than they've been in a long time and this is an important game to them. Look for LA to come in complacent and for the home side to be risking life and limb tonight. As I said above, probably no big outright upset victory, but I definitely expect a "nail-biter" until the end. Grab the points, the play is Charlotte. Good luck...Larry |
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