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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-19 | Toledo v. Central Michigan -9 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on CMU. The Rockets are bowl eligible at 6-5. CMU is as well at 7-4. The Chips though can earn a much better bowl with an 8-4 record and I look for them to lay everything on the line in front of the home town crowd. The Rockets came out flat losing 49-30 to Buffalo last weekend, limited to jsut 154 rushing yards. CMU though comes in on top form having won five of its last six. The Chips come in off a hard-fought 45-44 win over Ball State last weekend, going into the break down 27-11. With a chance to move to 8-4, I think the home side carries over that second half momentum here. Key Trends: - The Chips are 5-0 ATS in their last five at home. - Toledo is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The verdict: CMU could have easily thrown in the towel last week, but clearly this is a team on a mission. Look for that to translate into another big win at home this weekend; lay the points! |
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11-29-19 | Texas Tech v. Texas -9.5 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 72 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Texas. Texas is eligible at 6-5, but a victory today would cement its bowl berth. The Red Raiders though are just 4-7 this season and a win won't matter for them at all today. Last year Texas won this game 41-34, but I believe the stage is set for a much bigger blowout victory this time around. Note that the Longhorns had a 17 point lead late in the fourth quarter in that one, before allowing Texas Tech to rally. Texas Tech lost 30-27 to K-State last Saturday and it enters this one with several injuries, including to RB Ta’Zhawn Henry (unknown) and WR Dalton Rigdon (concussion). Texas is also injured, but QB Sam Ehlinger, who has thrown for more than 200 yards in 11 straight games, is primed for a big day vs. this porous Red Raiders' secondary in my opinion. Key Trends: - Texas Tech is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. - The Red Raiders are only 1-3 ATS in their last four off a close loss by six points or less. - Texas is 2-0 ATS in its last two after two or more consecutive SU setbacks. The verdict: I like Ehlinger to help the home side break its three game skid with a big win over their hated rival; lay the points! |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2.5 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on Mississippi State. Mississippi State has one last chance to become bowl eligible. At 5-6 the Bulldogs still need one more victory to earn a chance at a Bowl berth. Well, what better opponent than 4-7 Mississippi, who has now officially been eliminated from contention? The only two victories for the Rebels in conference play this year have come against the two worst teams (Vanderbilt and Arkansas.) Ole Miss just gave up 58 points to LSU and it struggles to put points on the board most weeks. MSU has had a difficult campaign as well, but with senior Tommy Stevens back under center, I think the home side delivers the goods in the Egg Bowl. Key Trends: - Ole Miss concedes 298.7 YPG through the air. - Mississippi State is still 15-6 ATS in its last 21 at home. The verdict: Ole Miss ranks among the absolute worst vs. the pass and I think Stevens is going to take full advantage; lay the short points! |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* START-UP is on the Lions. Whether it's Jeff Driskel or David Blough under center for Detroit today, I think the home side takes the inconsistent Bears down to the wire (at the very least.) Does Mitchell Trubisky have the advantage at the QB position today over his counterparts? While Chicago did beat Detroit earlier in the year, it's gone 2-5 since, due in large part to an offense which averages just 17.1 PPG. Statistically these defenses are similar in many categories as well. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year. - The Bears are only 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite of seven points or less. - Detroit is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less. The verdict: I think home field does matter in this one; grab the points! |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Western Michigan. Western Michigan is 7-4 and NIU is only 4-6. The Huskies need to sweep their remaining games to become eligible, but WMU is looking to better its bowl berth as well. I think the Mustangs deliver the knock out blow for the Huskies here though as they enjoy significant advantages both on the field of play and in the stats/trends. WMU needs to win this game have CMU lose this week to earn the MAC West title. WMU comes in out of its bye week as well, rested and focussed on the task at hand. The Huskies have lost two of their last three in blowout fashion, most recently a 45-17 home loss to EMU. Key Trends: - NIU is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on Tuesday. - WMU is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. The verdict: Expect the Mustangs' superior offense to be the difference in this one; lay the points with confidence! |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* ROUT is on the 49ers. San Fran is 9-1 and Green Bay is 8-2. Green Bay beat the Panthers two weeks ago, but I think it'll struggle here after its bye week. San Francisco's road ahead becomes very difficult, making this a very important home game. Key Trends: - The Packers are a poor 6-13 ATS in their last 19 after a SU win. - The 49ers are 3-0 ATS this year in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3. The verdict: As stated above, I think the time off will in fact hurt the Pack here, while I expect the home side to return to form; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Titans. The Jags come in off a loss to Indianapolis, while the Titans come in off their bye week. Jacksonville welcomed back QB Nick Foles last week, but the offense only put up 13 points. Tennessee on the other hand scored a huge win over the Chiefs before its bye week and it's still now very much back in the playoff hunt with QB Ryan Tannehill under center. Key Trends: - Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS in its last three off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. - Tennessee is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a win by three points or less. The verdict: The Jags are in trouble as they continue to make changes at QB. Tennessee has had a week off to game plan and I expect it to execute; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Bills. I like the Bills to lay the hammer down here. New England has a tough game at home vs. the Cowboys and if it does happen to falter, then Buffalo has a golden opportunity this weekend to make up some ground. Buffalo's schedule ahead is a difficult one as well, so this is a contest in which it simply can't "look ahead" in. Buffalo posted 424 yards of offense vs. the Dolphins last weekend. Denver came close to defeating the Vikings last weekend, but an epic second half collapse has the team still reeling from it on Sunday in my opinion. Rookie Brandon Allen will get the call under center for the Broncos and while he looked decent last week vs. the Vikes, I think he'll struggle in this difficult road venue and vs. this tough Buffalo defense. Key Trends: - The Broncos are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a non-conference game (including 0-2 ATS this season.) - The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite. The verdict: Buffalo's defense is ranked third in the league and I expect it to play a pivotal role in a lop-sided home destruction; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Giants v. Bears -6 | 14-19 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Chicago Bears. The Giants are coming out of their bye week and I think they'll struggle to get much production here vs. this hungry home side. Chicago comes in off a loss on the road to the Rams and essentially needs to win this game or its playoff hopes are done. New York QB Daniel Jones has shown some flashes of brilliance, but he's been poor for the most part, posting eight INT's and fumbling it 13 times already. Jones is getting little help in the run game either, as Saquon Barkley has only 402 rushing yards and two TD's in seven games. Yes Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky has taken a step back this year, but he has a big opportunity this weekend to turn things around. While the offense has been more "miss" than "hit" this year, the defense remains a strong point, conceding only 17.4 PPG. Key Trends: - Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. - The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. - New York is a pathetic 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 30 or more points in its previous outing. The verdict: The turnover prone Jones is in for another rude awakening at chilly Soldier Field this afternoon; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Panthers +11 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Carolina Panthers. This is essentially a do or die game for the Panthers as they try to keep pace with the 8-2 Saints. New Orleans comes in off a 34-17 victory over the Bucs. Carolina' QB Kyle Allen had four INT's in a loss to the Falcons last weekend. Allen though will be given the green light here vs. a banged up Saints' secondary which is conceding 250 yards per game through the air. The Saints have a great pass rush and the Panthers have been susceptible in allowing sacks, but Carolina can keep opponents honest with RB Christian McCaffrey. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 2-0 ATS in their last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. - Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog. - New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I'm banking on a competitive war until the final moments; grab the points! |
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11-23-19 | Nebraska -5 v. Maryland | Top | 54-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER on Nebraska. Nebraska is 4-6 and it only has two games left to become eligible. At 3-7, Maryland is officially out of contention for a bowl berth now. Yes the Terps would love to play spoiler here, but I don't see it happening vs. the desperate Huskers, who I expect to risk life and limb today to pull off the victory. Nebraska has lost four straight, most recently falling to Wisconsin last tie out. Maryland has lost five straight after getting crushed by Ohio State last year. The Huskers looked decent in defeat last week, falling 37-21 to a strong Wisconsin side. QB Adrian Martinez is going to be a difference maker here in my opinion. He has 1,712 passing yards and an 8:7 TD:INT. But he also has nearly 500 rushing yards and another seven TD's on the ground. The Terps come out of their bye week with nothing to play for. In their 73-14 loss to Ohio State they only attempted 17 passes compared to 32 rushing attempts. Key Trends: - Nebraska is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. - Maryland is a pathetic 3-11 ATS in its last 14 following its bye week. The verdict: As mentioned above, I believe that Huskers' QB Martinez has a big opportunity here and I expect the senior to make the most of it; lay the points! |
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11-20-19 | Akron +31.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is Akron. Akron is 0-10 and playing out the tail end of a miserable season. But the Zips catch a complacent Miami Ohio team tonight that's won four straight, including a 44-3 win over Bowling Green last week to earn the Mac Eastern division title. Akron has terrible numbers, but I think the home side goes up early and then coasts the rest of the way as it looks to avoid any serious injuries. Key Trends: - Akron is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records. - Miami Ohio is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite. - The RedHawks are only 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 14 points or less in their last game. The verdict: This line is out of control. Yes the Zips are horrible, but the overall situation and this massive spread makes the visitors the correct call here in my opinion; grab the points! |
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11-19-19 | Ohio v. Bowling Green +18 | Top | 66-24 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Bowling Green. At 4-6, Ohio needs to sweep its remaing games for a shot at Bowl eligibility. At 3-7, Bowling Green has already been eliminated. That won't stop the home side from trying to play spoiler here though. I think the Falcons do indeed use the thought of eliminating Ohio from contention as motivation today and I expect them to keep this one close until the final moments. Bowling Green comes in off a terrible 44-3 loss to Miami Ohio last week, a setback which put it out of Bowl contention. With nothing to lose though, I expect the home side to try and push the pace throughout. Ohio battled WMU and earned an OT period after it punched a last second TD in regulation. However, its hopes were then dashed in the 37-34 loss ultimately. It was the second straight loss by three points or less and I believe the mentally down-trodden Bobcats come out flat here. Key Trends: - Ohio ranks eight in the MAC allowing 432.6 YPG. - The Bobcats are a terrible 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference contests. The verdict: The Falcons are a bad team, but the overall situation highly favors them in this situatoinal spot bet in my opinion; grab the points! |
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11-17-19 | Bears +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Bills/Dolphins. Miami has won two in a row and it'll now look to build and to try and give the Bills a second straight loss in a row. For Buffalo, it's blazing start to the season is going to be in the rear view mirror if it can't start putting some production on the board. When these teams met earlier in the year though, it was Buffalo that laid the hammer down in the 31-21 victory and I believe a similar final combined score is on deck here as well. Key Trends: - The Bills have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight after a loss by six points or less. - The Fish have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 12 as a home dog. The verdict: Buffalo's pissed about its last second loss in Cleveland last weekend and knows it has to get out and push the pace here. The Dolphins are riding high after a two-game win streak and Ryan Fitzpatrick and company won't be backing down either. This one could go OVER by half time! Chicago Bears +6 1/2 @ LA Rams 8:20 EST RICKY'S 10* SUNDAY NIGHT ATS 'BLOOD-BATH!' |
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11-16-19 | Air Force v. Colorado State +10.5 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on Colorado State. Air Force is 7-2 and looking to improve its bowl position, but Colorado State is just 4-5 and it's running out of time. The Rams though enter on top form, having won three straight and averaging 37.6 PPG in that span. Rams' QB Patrick O'Brien has five TD's and one INT in that span. Air Force had its game vs. New Mexico postponed last weekend because of an accidental death on NM the night before the game. Key Trends: - The Falcons average 34.4 PPG and they concede 20.9. - The Rams average 31.7 PPG and they allow 32.0. The verdict: However note that the Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye week and 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference contests, while the Falcons are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with losing records. I like the desperate home side to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments; grab the points! |
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11-16-19 | Tulane -5.5 v. Temple | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* WAKE-AND-MAKE is on Tulane. Tulane broke its two game losing streak with a win last weekend to become bowl eligible and I like the Waves to carry that momentum over here. Tulane's ground game ranks in the top ten in the country, averaging 261.2 rushing yards per game. The Owls also broke a two-game slide to become eligible, but with a game vs. Cincinnati up next, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead here. Key Trends: - Tulane is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of seven points or less. - The Green Wave is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest. - Temple is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven after conceding 14 points or less in its last contest. The verdict: I like Tulane's ground game to slowly break down Temples defense; lay the points! |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Marshall. All good things have to come to an end. Louisiana Tech is 8-1 and it's won eight games in a row. Facing a hungry 6-3 Marshall side that's looking to better its bowl positioning itself, I think the Bulldogs finally stumble on the road here. Overall Louisiana Tech averages 38.1 PPG. The Herd have won four in a row and they're 4-1 at home. Marshall only allows 371 yards of offense per game. Key Trends: - Note that Louisiana Tech is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing three straight conference games. - Marshall is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a cover as a double digit favorite. The verdict: I think the Bulldogs finally take a step back here in this difficult venue vs. this top notch defense; lay the short points! |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes the Browns REALLY need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt. But guess what? The Steelers REALLY need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt as well. Both "Faker" Mayfield of the Browns and Mason Rudolph of the Steelers have been pretty bad this year, so I'm classifying these pivots as a "wash" today. But Pittsburgh's defense has been tremendous during its four game win streak and I believe it'll be the difference maker tonight as well. Ever since the Steelers acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, the defense has been "lights out" and I expect that trend to continue here. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, including 3-1 ATS this year. - Cleveland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite including only 1-3 ATS this season. The verdict: As stated throughout my analysis, I believe Pittsburgh's defense will step up and win the game here; grab the points! |
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11-14-19 | Buffalo -5.5 v. Kent State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* BLOOD-BATH is on Buffalo. The Bulls go on the road as the favorite here looking for their sixth win of the year. Kent State needs to win out to become bowl eligible. Buffalo has won four of the last five in this series though and I expect the Bulls to continue that run of success today. The Bulls dominate defensively, allowing only 22.3 PPG overall and just 11.3 over the last three. Buffalo has also looked a lot better with QB Kyle Vantrease under center, as he's gone 3-1 with five TD's and a 61 percent completion rate since taking over for the injured Matt Myers. Kent State's been better at home than on the road this year and QB Dustin Crum, who leads the team in rushing, has only one INT. Key Trends: - Note though that Buffalo is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. the conference, including 4-1 ATS this season. - The Bulls are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. - Kent State is only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home, including just 1-2 ATS this season. The verdict: I like the Bulls to dominate this one defensively and to punch their ticket to eligibility vs. this "on again, off again" Kent State side; lay the points! |
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11-13-19 | Bowling Green +18.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 3-44 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on Bowling Green. Miami Ohio is in need of just one more victory to become bowl eligible. But at 3-6, the Bowling Green Falcons are still three victories away. Outright victory here? Likely not! But Bowling Green's post-season aspirations are in the balance here and I think it'll have enough to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Bowling Green comes in off a momentum building 35-6 win over Akron in its last action as well. The Redhawks revolve around QB Brett Gabbert, who has three TD's and no INT's over his last three games. Note though that Miami's last three victories have come by seven, three and seven points respectively. Key Trends: - Bowling Green is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing three consecutive conference contests. - Miami Ohio is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite. The verdict: The Falcons come in out of their bye week and with the extra time off to prepare, I look for them to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample points they've been afforded tonight; play on Bowling Green! |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron +17 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Akron. EMU is 4-5 and desperate for some victories as it looks to run down a bowl berth. The Eagles are just 1-4 in conference play, while the Zips are 0-9 overall and 0-5 in league action. Note that Akron will not only be relishing the thought of playing spoiler here vs. the Eagles, but it's also out for revenge after dropping this game last year by a score of 27-7. The Zips have the second worst offense in the nation, but they actually have a decent defense, allowing only 390 YPG. Eastern allows 455 YPG. Key Trends: - EMU is a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 as a favorite (including only 1-3 ATS this season.) - Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. The verdict: Outright victory? I doubt it. But the conditions are definitely right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest in my opinion; grab the points! |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Seattle Seahawks. So far everything has gone perfectly for the 49ers, in that almost every bounce and every close call has gone their way during their perfect 8-0 start. But they certainly didn't look like "World beaters" in their 28-25 win over Arizona last weekend. Seattle hasn't been perfect, but it's been damn close this year. And to me, it only appears as if Russell Wilson and company are only getting better. On both sides of the ball. San Francisco is starting to show signs of fatigue and teams appear to be "figuring them out." And now they face Wilson, who has 22 TD's and only one INT. Key Trends: - Seattle is 4-0 ATS in its last four road game vs. teams with winning SU home records. - San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including a money-burning 3-3 ATS this season. The verdict: I think the Hawks' veteran experience in this contest could in fact help in posting an outright upset. That said, let's grab the points in what appears to be a very highly competitive matchup! |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* U OF THE U is on the Tennessee Titans. It's do or die essentially for the Titans this week as they look to move back to .500. Titans' backup QB Ryan Tannehill is 2-1 in his three starts with a 99.7 passer rating. Patrick Mahomes could get the start for the Chiefs here. Then again, maybe he won't and backup Matt Moore will get the nod. Moore is 1-1 with a 100.9 passer rating so far in filling in for the injured Mahomes. The uncertainty surrounding the pivot position, whether Mahomes does in fact get the call here, isn't doing the visiting side any favors in my opinion. KC is dealing with significant injuries to its defense as well, with CB Kendall Fuller and DE's Frank Clark and Alex Okafor all listed as questionable. Key Trends: - The Titans are 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. - KC is a poor 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU victory. The verdict: I like Ryan Tannehill at home to give the Chiefs everything they can handle. The public and the books are sleeping on Tannehill and how good he's playing right now; grab the points! |
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11-09-19 | Maryland +44 v. Ohio State | Top | 14-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Maryland. I think this spread is WAY too large. Ohio State doesn't need to run up the score on this one to win obviously. The 8-0 Buckeyes are rolling towards the finish line and the 3-6 Terrapins will be just another speed bump in their grand prix season. Maryland QB Josh Jackson is a gun-slinger though and I think he'll have his opportunities vs. this complacent home side. Maryland has been decent against the pass as well of late, most recently holding Michigan QB Shea Patterson to just 151 total yards. OSU QB Justin Fields could also be limited here after he went to the injury tent last time out late in the game. Key Trends: - The Buckeyes are interestingly just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points. - Maryland is a decent 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a blowout loss of 21 or more points to a conference rival. The verdict: This spread is ridiculous. Look for Maryland to put up a fight until the final quarter; grab the points! |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Oakland Raiders. The Chargers and Raiders are both desperately in need of a victory here. LA has won back-to-back games over the Bears and Packers, while Oakland is coming off a pivotal win over the Lions, keeping them in second place in the division. Oakland's defense and especially its secondary has been suspect this year, but Derek Carr and the offense has been much better than expected. TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs have both been great and I think LA's defense is going to struggle here to contain them. Green Bay's offense looked horrible last week, but it did in Week 1 as well vs. the impotent Bears. I'm not convinced that LA's defensive numbers over the last two games are completely indicative of how the unit will perform moving forward. And on the short week, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side. Key Trends: - LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. - Oakland is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three a home dog of three points or less. The verdict: I think the Raiders' defense does just enough and I look for Carr to continue to progress with the dynamic young pieces around him; play on Oakland! |
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11-07-19 | Temple v. South Florida +2 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on USF. Temple is hoping to snap a three-game losing streak here, but I think the 4-4 home side does just enough to secure the small upset on Thursday night. The Bulls enter off a big 45-20 win over ECU and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Temple QB Anthony Russon now faces one of the nation's best pass defenses, as the Bulls are ranked 17th in that department. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for USF either, with games against heavyweights Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF to finish up the regular season. If not now for the Bulls, when? Key Trends: - Temple is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five "Thusday" night games. - USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a win by 21 or more points. The verdict: These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect those trends to continue; play on the Bulls! |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Ohio. This is a big game. Both teams are 4-4, but 3-1 in MAC action. The winner of this one will take control of the conference. Last year Miami Ohio won this game 30-28, snapping a five game win streak in the series for the Bobcats. These teams are contrasting in styles, with the RedHawks getting the job done on the defensive side of the ball, and Ohio getting big offensive production (Bobcats have won two straight and scored 78 points in the process.) Miami QB Brett Gabbert has been decent this year, throwing for 1,360 pasisng yards, but with five TD's and five INT's. Note that Gabbert has also been sacked 16 times this year. Key Trends: - The Bobcats have 14 sacks this season. - Ohio QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's. The verdict: The RedHawks weakness on the defensive side is against the pass. Look for the home side to air this one out early and often and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; lay the points! |
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11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 49 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on the New England Patriots. If Tom Brady can put together a perfect season and then win the Super Bowl, do you think he'd retire? It would be the perfect ending to a legendary career. New England is well on its way to doing that this season and backed by the league's No. 1 defense, which is putting up historic numbers, I think the Patriots come in and take care of business on the national stage. Brady has a solid offensive unit around, but his O-line has been exceptional. The Ravens enter hungry for a victory, but they're off their bye-week, so I expect the home side to be a bit "flat" to open this one. Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson has already struggled vs. some of the elite defenses he's seen and I expect that trend to continue here. Key Trends: - New England is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 after allowing 14 points or less in its last outing. - Baltimore is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten after a win by ten or more points. The verdict: I don't even expect this one to be close at all, as I think Jackson and company stumble against the No. 1 defense in the league; lay the short points! |
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11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOILET BOWL is on the New York Jets. Miami only averages 11 PPG, while New York averages 11.1. The Dolphins though have the worst defense in the league, allowing an average of 34 PPG. Miami got out to a decent start vs. the Steelers last weekend, but then it got blown out in the end. Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick committed four fumbles last weekend. Key Trends: - New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. - Miami is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after a loss by ten points or more. The verdict: Jets' QB Sam Darnold won AFC player of the week in New York's only victory this year and now facing the leagues worst defensive unit, I believe he'll be the difference maker in the end; lay the short points! |
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11-02-19 | Marshall -10.5 v. Rice | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 95 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Marshall. Rice is 0-8, while Marshall is 5-3. The Herd are desperate for one more victory to become eligible and a date vs. the hapless Owls, who post only 15.9 PPG is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. Marshall enters off a hard-fought 26-23 win over WKU and it is now in control of the West Division standings. Rice QB Wiley Green doesn't have much to work with and his numbers reflect that, as he's thrown for 161 yards or fewer in all seven of his appearances. The Herd though have the top rushing attack in the conference, led by Brenden Knox with 803 rushing yards and seven TD's. Key Trends: - Marshall is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-1 ATS this year.) - The Herd are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU home victory (including 2-1 ATS this season.) The verdict: The Owls are down for the count. Marshall comes in off its biggest win of the year, but it has much bigger aspirations than just earning a bowl berth. I think the Herd lay the hammer down from start to finish and I look for them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; lay the points! |
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11-02-19 | NC State +7.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-44 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 60 m | Show | |
My 9* ATS BLOWOUT is on NC State. Wake Forest is 6-1 and I think it has enough of a letdown here after becoming eligible to let the hungry WolfPack sneak in through down the stretch. Will rest lead to rust? The Demon Deacons have had a week off after falling to Louisville, a setback which also saw starting QB Jamie Newman go down with injury. NC State is moving to Devin Leary as QB, who played well in defeat to BC a copule of weeks ago, throwing for 259 yards and three TD's. Wake Forest's defense is in question here, it has held its opposition to 24 points or fewer in five of its victories, but allowed a whopping 62 points to Louisville at home two weeks ago. Key Trends: - The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four following a bye week. - NC State is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss to a conference rival. The verdict: Three of Wake Forest's victories this season have come by six points or less. NC State is also coming out of its bye week, so I think it's defense will look a lot better after the hiccup vs. the Eagles. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Dolphins are 0-6 and they have nothing to play for. They almost won last week vs. the Bills, but after that setback and once again making a switch at QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick again, I simply can't see the visiting side putting up any sort of fight whatsoever this evening. The Steelers are coming off their bye-week, which couldn't have come at a more opportune time for QB Mason Rudolph, who was dealing with concussion like symptoms. Look for the home side to lean heavily on dynamic RB James Conner again as the offense looks to limit mistakes and control the game. Key Trends: - Miami is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 as a road dog. - Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four MNF games. The verdict: I look for the above scenario to play out this evening; lay the points! |
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10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is 4-2 and it's coming out of its bye week hungry for a victory and to give the 6-0 49ers their first loss of the season. Carolina has won four straight with rookie pivot Kyle Allen under center. San Francisco has averaged 172 yards per game in the early going and its defense has been tremendous. Carolina averages 27 PPG and it concedes 22. San Fran averages 26 PPG and it allows only ten. Key Trends: - Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog (including 2-0 ATS this season.) - San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, including a money-burning 2-2 ATS this year. The verdict: Yes the 49ers sport better seasonal averages, but Carolina's early numbers are skewed with Newton having played the first two games. Carolina comes in rested and red hot and while I wouldn't be surprised by an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can! |
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10-27-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on the New York Giants. The Lions "hot start" is firmly in the rear view mirror. At 2-5, the Giants are also looking at another miserable season, but that doesn't mean that they won't be fighting tooth and nail here. New York QB Daniel Jones has something to prove this week. Last weekend Giants' RB Saquon Barkley had 72 yards and a TD. The Lions' though looked terrible in their 42-30 loss to the Vikes this past Sunday. Matt Stafford has been decent for Detroit, but he's not going to have top RB Kerryon Johnson to help him. Key Trends: - New York is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog of 7 points or less. - The Giants are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three off an upset loss as a favorite. - Detroit is a terrible 4-7 ATS in their last 11 off a division game. The verdict: In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab up the points! |
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10-27-19 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bears | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* TOP DOG is on the LA Chargers. The Chargers had three chances to punch it in from the 1 yard line last week to win vs. the Titans, but Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers were unable to get the job done. The Chargers' season literally hangs in the balance in this one after starting 2-5. The Bears have been all over the map from week to week with their consistency, and they enter this one at 3-3. For the most part I'm basing this selection on the starting QB's. Mitchell Trubisky has taken a major step back this year. That's due to a number of different reasons, but regardless I absolutely like Rivers to come in focussed and to deliver the goods. Key Trends: - Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 on the road. - Bears are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a SU home loss. The verdict: This is a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last; grab the points! |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -125 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
My 8* SMASH-JOB is on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense has been "good enough" this year, but their defense has been exceptional. Overall Buffalo averages only 20.2 PPG, but it concedes just 15.2. Buffalo' QB Josh Allen had two TD's vs. the Dolphins last weekend. The Eagles are down and out in my opinion after their 37-10 loss to the Cowboys. They aren't coming to a friendly place to face a team that's going to "look past" them either. After years of missing the playoffs, the Bills are on a mission this season. Besides, Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has looked horrible this year and he continues to suffer from a poor running game and weak offensive line. Key Trends: - Buffalo has scored 121 points so far this year and it's allowed an AFC low 91 against. - The Eagles are a poor 1-4 ATS this year following an ATS loss. The verdict: I think the home side can smell the blood in the water and I look for it to deliver the knock out blow to Philadelphia's season this weekend; lay the short points! |
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10-26-19 | Washington State v. Oregon -14 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -109 | 105 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on Oregon. 4-3 Washington State is going to get overwhelmed here today by 6-1 Oregon in my opinion. WSU posted a 41-10 win over Colorado last weekend, while the Ducks got over a major hurdle last week by taking out Washington. WSU QB Anthony Gordon leads a passing game which is No. 1 in the country with 440.7 YPG. Yes the defense held Colorado to 320 yards last week, but the week prior it conceded 532 to ASU. Ducks' QB Justin Herbert has 21 TD's and no INT's so far this season. Oregon's defense though is among the best in the country, allowing only 11.9 PPG. The Ducks have also forced 12 INT's this year. Key Trends: - Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the Conference. - The Cougars are interestingly just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting 280 yards or more in their previous game. The verdict: For me, the WSU defense is the weak point for the visitors and I look for Herbert to light it up. Combined with the home side's improved defensive play this season, all signs do indeed point to a Ducks ATS rout; lay the points! |
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10-26-19 | Arizona -1 v. Stanford | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* SMASH-JOB is on Arizona. Stanford is 3-4 overall, while Arizona is 4-3. While these teams haven't played since 2016, Stanford has won five straight in the series. Arizona enters hungry after back-to-back conference losses to Washington and USC. QB Grant Gunnell had 196 yards, two TD's and an INT. Overall the Wildcats average 34 PPG, while allowing 33 PPG. The Cardinal beat Washington two weeks ago, but after their bye they came out flat in a 34-16 setbac to UCLA at home. Stanford is now devastated by the injury bug and it comes into this one on its third string QB in Jack West. So far Stanford averages 22 PPG and it concedes 27. Key Trends: - The Cardinal are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. - The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. The verdict: Yes Arizona can't stop anybody, but this week it clearly catches a big break facing the anemic offense of the Cardinal. This one has ATS blowout written all over it in my opinion, play on the Wildcats! |
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10-26-19 | Southern Miss v. Rice +11 | 20-6 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* TOP DOG is on Rice. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are coming off a loss and sit at 4-3. The Rice Owls won't be going to a bowl game at 0-7, but they will be playing with pride as they try to shake off a frustrating season with an upset this afternoon. Southern Miss fell 45-30 to LA Tech last time out. Golden Eagels' star RB De'Michael Harris was injured in the second quarter and he's questionable for this one as well. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham threw four INT's last week as well. Rice comes in off a tough 31-27 loss to UTSA, with QB's Tom Stewart and Wiley Green combining for 223 yards and two TD's. Key Trends: - The Southern Miss passing defense is among the worst in the country, allowing 273 yards through the air. - Rice is already a strong 2-0 ATS at home this year. The verdict: I think the visitors get caught looking past their lowly opponent and the injury to RB Harris is also significant here. The Owls have been "on the cusp" for a few weeks now and while they may not prevail outright here, everything points to another battle until the end; grab the points! |
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10-26-19 | Liberty v. Rutgers +7.5 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 94 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on Rutgers. Liberty is 5-2 and on the hunt for a bowl berth with one more victory, but 1-6 Rutgers is out to play spoiler for at least one more week. Liberty's competition has been suspect, last week it beat the Maine Black Bears 59-44. Flames' QB Joe Fagnano had five TD passes last week, but Liberty's defense was downright atrocious. Rutgers struggles offensively, but it catches a break here facing a banged up Liberty secondary. Key Trends: - Liberty is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine on the road. - The Flames are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring 42 points or more in their last game. - Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six off three straight losses to conference rivals. The veridct: The Scarlet Knights may not win this game outright, but I definitely am expecting an all out war until the end. Rutgers is desperate for any sort of positivity after six straight losses and they have a golden opportunity here to start the turn-around; that said, grab the points! |
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10-25-19 | USC -13 v. Colorado | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -106 | 82 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT is on USC. Yes USC has major issues at the RB position, but I still think it's going to have its way with the porous Buffalo defense. The Trojans are tied with Utah for the lead after last week's commanding 41-14 victory at home over Arizona. USC back-up QB Kedon Slovis has looked better each time he's hit the field and he has to be feeling confident here after throwing for four TD's and no INT's over his last two games. The Buffs have managed just 13 points in each of their last two games, with QB Steven Montez averaging just 130 passing yards. Key Trends: - The Buffs are allowing almost five TD's per game to opponents. - Colorado allowed Washington State to convert on three plays of over 20 yards last week. The verdict: Last week USC's defense came up with seven sacks. This one has disaster written all over it for the home side in all three phases; I'm laying the points! |
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10-21-19 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the New England Patriots. I don't think the Patriots "look past" the Jets on Monday Night Football. In fact, I think Tom Brady and company are planning something big this evening. As good as Brady is though right now, note that it's been his defense which has gotten the job done this season, allowing only 234.7 YPG total. Key Trends: - The Jets offensive line has conceded 25 sacks so far this year. - The Patriots are avearging four sacks per game. The verdict: New York is a better football team with Sam Darnold under center as evidenced by last week's upset win over the inconsistent Cowboys. However, Darnold faces what is shaping up to be one of the best defenses in the history of the NFL; expect a lop-sided destruction and lay the points with confidence! |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Chicago Bears. All good things have to come to an end eventually. The Saints are 5-1, but I think they're going to take a step back here in this tough venue. It's difficult to win and cover on the road in the NFL and after last week's 13-6 victory at Jacksonville, I believe the Saints will in fact finally have their letdown here. Chicago had won three straight before a 24-21 loss to the Raiders in London two weeks ago. But with a week off to prepare and focus, I look for the home side to take advantage. Key Trends: - Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league, allowing 83 rushing yards and 229.2 passing yards with 17 sacks and four INT's this year. The verdict: Teddy Bridgewater has filled in admirably for Drew Brees to this point, but after he falters this weekend, look for New Orleans to use the setback as the stage to re-introduce their super start veteran pivot; this one has ATS blowout written all over it! |
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10-20-19 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Texans. Houston comes in on top form, off back to back big wins and I look for it to steam roll the Colts here, who enter off their bye-week. Houston smoked the Falcons in Week 5 by posting 53 points and then it beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Colts beat the Chiefs as well, but then they went into their bye week. I think that rest is going to least to rust for the 3-2 Colts. Key Trends: - The Texans are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog. - The Colts are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in three out of their last four. The verdict: I like DeShaun Watson to continue his incredible play and for Houston to take advantage of this "flat" Colts side; grab the short points! |
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10-20-19 | Dolphins v. Bills -16.5 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. I think the 4-1 Bills lay the hammer down from start to finish on the 0-5 Dolphins. The Fish have been blown out big time in four of their five games and in my opinion, everything points to another blowout here as well. The Bills are coming out of their bye week and they are expecting RB Devin Singletary to return to the line-up. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 15 points or less in its previous game. - The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four following their bye-week. - The Dolphins are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 on the road. The verdict: Miami is looking to tank every game at this point as it tries to earn the top draft picks; this one has ATS blowout written all over it! |
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10-19-19 | Michigan +9.5 v. Penn State | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Michigan. Clearly it's a big game. I got down early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I think this one is going to come down to the wire. MIchigan is 5-1, and Penn State is 6-0. Last year the Wolverines won this game 42-7. Michigan beat Illinois 42-25 last week. Michigan got by Iowa and Penn State and its hands full with the Hawkeyes last week. The Wolverines average 30 PPG, while conceding just 17. Michigan QB Shea Patterson had three passsing TD's and one rushing in last weeks' victory. Penn State averages 42 PPG, while allowing only eight. But I think the Nittany Lions numbers are skewed, due to a couple of lop-sided blowouts in the early season. Key Trends: - Penn State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. - Michigan is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: I think this will be a tight, defensive affair. Grab the points! |
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10-19-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia | 14-48 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* ACC SUPER-CRUSHER is on Duke. This is a big game for both 4-2 ACC Coastal Division opponents. Clearly the oddsmakers also believe these teams are evenly matched. And in a contest which I do envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. Duke comes in off a win over Georgia Tech, while Virginia has taken a step back of late after a hot start, entering off back-to-back losses, including to Notre Dame and then most recently to Miami. The Blue Devils have a new QB this year in Quentin Harris and he's led an offense which has scored at least 30 points in every game so far (except vs. Alabama.) But Duke has been even better defensively, allowing just 3.67 YPC and only 6.7 yards per attempt in the air. Key Trends: - The quadruple revenge factor comes into play here for the Blue Devils. The verdict: The Cavaliers' defense has been a strong point for UVA this year, but QB Byrce Perkins has taken a step back of late. And I think that trend continues vs. the "under the radar" Duke defense. The outright is clearly possible, but in the end I'm grabbing the points! |
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10-19-19 | Buffalo v. Akron +17.5 | 21-0 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* BLOWOUT is on Akron. Akron has a lot of issues at 0-6 clearly, but the Bulls have lost two in a row and four of their last five. Akron ranks among the worst in the country on both sides of the ball, while Buffalo sports respectable marks. However, the Bulls have conceded 55 points over their last two games and I like the Zips to take advantage here at home. Key Trends: - This is a revenge game for Akron after it fell 24-6 in Buffalo last year in this game. - The home team has covered seven straight in this series. The verdict: Buffalo started a new QB in Kyle Vantrease last time out and he had 197 yards and two TD's in his team's 21-20 OT loss to Ohio. Akron has talent at the most important position; QB. Kato Nelson has 1,267 passing yards and an 8:3 TD:INT. I think the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe; grab the points! |
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10-19-19 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on Georgia Tech. Massive upset? Beatdown of epic proportions? Or something firmly in between?! I think the 1-5 Yellow Jackets will keep this one more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. the 3-3 Hurricanes. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Canes after their upset win over then No. 20 Virginia last weekend. The Yellow Jackets on the other hand will be in a foul mood after four straight losses, most recently a 41-23 setback at Duke. Georgia Tech runs the triple-option, but QB James Graham and the Yellow Jackets have struggled on the offensive end so far. But while Miami did look impressive on the defensive side last week vs. the Cavs, the week previous it lost 42-35 to Virginia Tech. The verdict: I think the home side gets caught looking ahead as well to back-to-back tough road games vs. Pittsburgh (leading the Coastal Division right now) and at FSU. The Yellow Jackets have nothing to lose here except another game; I'm grabbing the points! |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Syracuse. 4-2 Pittburgh invades 3-3 Syracuse on Friday night. Outright victory is clearly in the cards, but let's grab the points. Pittsburgh started off the year slowly, but it's since turned thing around with three straight wins. Pitt has looked shaky at times though, especially in a loss to Penn State. The Orange finished 10-3 last year, but so far they've had some troubles adjusting with new QB Tommy DeVito under center. The verdict: But with a much more high-profile game at home vs. Miami next weekend, I think the Panthers get caught looking past this clearly desperate Orange team. This is a season-defining contest for Syracuse and I expect it to play with an extreme sense of desperation in all phases. Also note that Pitt is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or ore consecutive SU victories, while Syraucse is 3-1 ATS In its last four afer scoring 14 points or less in its previous game; I'm grabbing the points! |
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10-18-19 | Marshall +5.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show | |
Key Trends: The Thundering Herd rumble into FAU with a 3-3 record, while the Owls defend at 4-2. FAU has now won four in a row after losses to Ohio State and UCF. Marshall enters having won two in a row, most recently pulling away for a 31-17 victory over Old Dominion. Both teams feature plenty of offensive talent. Marshall QB Isaiah Green has hit 60 percent of passes in conference play. The Herd have been decent defensively as well in conceding 25.8 per contest so far. The verdict: FAU got by MTSU 28-13 in its most recent victory. Owls' QB Chris Robinson has 300 or more yards in three straight games, but FAU's defense is a big question mark, as it allows 459 yards per game average and it's already conceded 24 total TD's. Marshall is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road dog and FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range; I'm grabbing the points! |
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10-17-19 | UCLA +7 v. Stanford | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCLA. I got down early and have UCLA at the opening line, but since the Cardinal reported that third-string QB Jack West is going to start, the line has dropped between 3 and 4. Regardless, I believe this one now definitely favors the Bruins. UCLA's offense has come to life of late under QB Austin Burton and with nothing to lose (except another game!), the last place Bruins will be giving the pivot the green light from start to finish. The Cardinal beat the Huskies 23-13 two weeks ago, but the change at QB is going to be difficult in my estimation. Key Trends: - UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. - Stanford is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 after playing a conference game. - The Cardinal are a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home win vs. a confernece rival. The verdict: I believe that an outright upset is possible, but in the end I'm grabbing the points! |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | 20-7 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* DELIGHT is on the LA Rams. I have been surprised by the 49ers, but I'm still not convinced by Jimmy Garopolo and company. Yes the Rams have suffered a Super Bowl letdown this year and yes they'll be without RB Todd Gurley, but LA's offense still ranks in the top 10 right now. With Jared Goff leading the show at home, I believe a beatdown is in the cards here. San Francisco comes in complacent and flat in my opinion after its great start and on the short week after the MNF victory over the Browns. Key Trends: - San Francisco is still only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division. - LA is 3-1 ATS vs. the conference this year. - The Rams are 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season. The verdict: Look for San Fran to finally have a letdown here; lay the short points! |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* CROWD PLEASER is on the Bengals. The Bengals are 0-5 and their season is over. But the team will still try to win games and build momentum as it looks to re-build and look-ahead to next year. They'll want to play spoiler here for a Ravens team which is 3-2, but which has also shown great inconsistency from week to week so far this year as well. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range (including 1-0 ATS this season.) - The Bengals are still 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division. - The Ravens are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game on the road. The verdict: I like this under the radar underdog to push its host to the limit; grab the points! |
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10-13-19 | Texans +5 v. Chiefs | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Houston Texans. Houston is 3-2 and KC is 4-1. The Chiefs are a "Joe Public" team with Patrick Mahomes under center, but I think that Houston and DeShaun Watson can keep pace down the stretch. The outright isn't out of the question, but this is a contest which I envision being decided late. Don't think Houston can keep pace with the Chiefs high-flying offense? Better think again after the Texans posted the resounding 53-32 win over the Falcons last weekend. The Chiefs on the other hand come in off their first loss of the season, inexplicably falling to the Colts at home. Key Trends: - Houston is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog (including 2-0 this year.) - Kansas City is a terrible 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: I think the stage is set for another outright upset. That said, let's grab up all these points! |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 32-28 | Loss | -101 | 119 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns. For this pick I'm looking at it from an overall situational stand point and in my opinion, this one simply means "more" to the home side. The Browns are off a terrible showing on Monday Night Football vs. the 49ers and they'll be looking to move back to .500 with a small upset at home here. The Hawks on the other hand have to travel across country for an early afternoon non-conference contest, after their thrilling win at home over division rival LA. I'm not convinced that Seattle really does have the "better" team on paper. The Browns issues mostly revolve around themselves shooting themselves in the foot. I expect a much better effort at home from Cleveland and I do indeed feel this also sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Key Trends: - Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two more consecutive victories. - Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game. The verdict: I expect Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to deliver the goods on their home field; grab the point/s! |
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10-12-19 | USC +11.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 102 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on USC. USC is 3-2 and Notre Dame is 4-1. The Trojans enter off a 28-14 loss to Washington, while the Irish rolled over Bowling Green 52-0 last weekend. USC though has had a week off to digest its latest setback and with Kedon Slovis now directing the show under center, I believe the visitors can keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest (732 yards passing with five TD's and four INTs). USC also has three backs with over 150 rushing yards, so Slovis has help. USC only allows 411.4 yards of total offense per game, so I think Irish QB Ian Book takes a step back this weekend, after last Saturday's "cream puff" matchup. Key Trends: - USC is already 2-0 ATS this year after one or more consecutive losses ATS. - Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two straight home wins by 14 points or more. The verdict: I think the rested home side can keep this one very close. No outright, but definitely grab up all these points! |
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10-12-19 | Iowa State -10 v. West Virginia | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 98 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Iowa State. Both teams are 3-2, but I think the visitors come prepared today and I look for them to lay a beating on the home side. The Cyclones enter off a convincing 49-24 win over TCU at home and with three of their next four on the road, I think they have to set an early precident here. WVU on the other hand had its win streak snapped in a sloppy 42-31 loss to Texas last weekend. Iowa State has "murderers row" up next, with games at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas. But I have a hard time seeing WVU slowing down Iowa State QB Brock Purdy. WVU has been terrible against FSU offenses and I look for that trend to carry over today. Key Trends: - The Cyclones are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 on the road. - WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. The verdict: In my opinion, this one has "beatdown" written all over it; lay the points! |
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10-12-19 | New Mexico State +11 v. Central Michigan | 28-42 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play on New Mexico State. I think CMU gets caught "looking past" lowly and winless New Mexico State. Central Michigan is 3-3, winning all three at home. But with upcoming road games at Bowling Green and Buffalo, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a natural letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. I think NMS QB Josh Adkins can keep his team in this one late vs. a Chips' secondary which is allowing an average of 264.2 YPG through the air. Key Trends: - New Mexico State is already 2-1 ATS as a road dog this year. - CMU is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog. The verdict: I think the improving Aggies will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final quarter; grab up all these points! |
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10-12-19 | Georgia Tech +17.5 v. Duke | 23-41 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Georgia Tech. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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10-12-19 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +26 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Bowling Green. I believe Toledo will get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. Of course I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do expect the home side to put up a fight. Last year the Rockets beat the Falcons 52-36. Yes Bowling Green has lost four in a row after winning its opener, but it's had a difficult schedule. It's now or never for the Falcons though if they have any hope of trying to make it to a Bowl. The motivational factors in which I look for when trying to choose one side or another are firmly in place for Bowling Green today (bowl hopes on the line, combined with catching a complacent Toledo team off four straight victories, and last year's revenge factor.) Key Trends: - Toledo is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including 0-2 ATS this year.) - Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games. The verdict: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Falcons; grab the points! |
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10-12-19 | Michigan v. Illinois +22 | 42-25 | Win | 100 | 94 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Illinois. Michigan is 4-1 and Illinois is 3-2. After hammering Rutgers 52-0, the Wolverines had to hold on for a tight 10-3 victory over Iowa last week. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that this absolutely sets up as a classic "trap" for the visitors, as Michigan has Penn State on deck next week. Key Trends: - Michigan is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 on the road. - The Wolverines are only 9-12 ATS in their last 21 after one or more SU victory. - Illinois is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog. The verdict: Illinois has had a difficult conference schedule and while it's not going to get any easier, I also don't expect it to go down without a fight this afternoon; grab the points! |
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10-11-19 | Colorado +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Colorado. Am I suggesting that you should "sprinkle" a little on the money line in this one? Of course not. But I do think that the Buffs can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the monster spread they've been afforded here. The Buffs pulled off an upset win on the road over Arizona State, before then losing to Arizona this past weekend. Still, Colorado also has a victory over Nebraska as well. Buffs' senior QB Steven Montez is arguably playing the best of his career thus far, averaging 8.3 yards per passing attempt. Yes Oregon is still the best team in the confernce and Justin Herbert faces a weak Colorado secondary, but I think Montez keeps his team in this one late. Key Trends: - Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range. - Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a home win vs. a conference rival. The verdict: The Buffs haven't been an "easy out," as both of their losses have been tight. Expect this one to follow suit and grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Colts +12 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a letdown last week, falling at home to the lowly Raiders. Indianapolis and Jacoby Brissett though have been solid and competitive this season, after not many gave them hope after starting QB Andrew Luck retired at the start of the campaign. Clearly Indianapolis got caught “looking ahead” to this difficult matchup. Kansas City is 4-0, but it had to come from behind on the road to beat the Lions 34-30 last weekend. Patrick Mahomes is willing his team to victory, but the Chiefs’ defense has been terrible overall. I think Brissett and the Colts can keep this one competitive down the stretch. Key Trends: - The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. - The Chiefs are interestingly only 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home vs. Indianapolis. The verdict: The Colts upset the Titans 19-17 in Nashville in Week 2, so the team knows how to compete on the road. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-34 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both divisional foes enter at 2-2. The Panthers got an effective outing out of backup QB Kyle Allen in their upset win over the Texans, while Gardner Minshew has led his team to back-to-back victories for the Jags. Minshew though has been impressive and I think he has a significant advantage of his counterpart today. Note that Minshew has seven TD’s and just one INT. The Jags also got a huge game from RB Leonard Fournette, who had 225 yards. Key Trends: - The Jags only allow 99.5 YPG rushing, which doesn’t bode well for Panthers’ RB Christian McCaffery (and in turn, will make this Panthers offense extremely one-dimensional for its rookie QB.) - Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog. The verdict: While the outright win is obviously possible, let’s grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Tampa Bay Bucs. This is a big game. For the Bucs more than the Saints in my opinion. Tampa is now 2-2 after it demolished the Rams 55-40 last weekend. Tampa got four turnovers, including three INT’s and it only allowed 28 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Saints team which is down to is second string QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is a game manager, but he lacks the talent of Drew Brees obviously. The Saints only average 102 YPG on the ground, which is ranked 19th. I think the Bucs are going to make New Orleans’ normally versatile offense, very one-dimensional this afternoon. Key Trends: - The Saints are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home home. - The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Jameis Winston and company beat the Saints on the road last year and while I do feel they have a legitimate shot at repeating that feat this weekend as well, I will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can; play on the Bucs! |
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10-05-19 | Illinois +14 v. Minnesota | 17-40 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Illinois. The Fighting Illini come to town 2-2, looking to pull off the upset vs. the 4-0 Minnesota Golden Gophers. Minnesota has been getting exceptional play from QB Tanner Morgan, who has hit over seventy percent of his passes for ten TD’s over four starts. Morgan’s unreal play has covered up the fact that the Gophers have been downright terrible defensively (allowing just under 30 PPG thus far.) This is the window of opportunity that Illinois can exploit and while I don’t think it’ll win SU, I do expect a tight battle. Illinois has been getting great offensive play, led by the rushing attack of Reggie Corbin, who has posted more than 100 yards rushing in two straight games. Key Trends: - Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a home loss. - Minnesota is only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this year). - The Golden Gophers are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten as a home favorite. The verdict: I believe the Gophers ineptitude on the defensive end leads to this game being a “nail biter;” grab the points! |
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10-05-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State -2 | 31-12 | Loss | -107 | 95 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Kansas State. These are the top two defenses in the Big 12. K-State is 2-1 and looking to bounce back in front of the home town crowd after its 26-13 loss to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats come in ranked 17th in the country by allowing 241.5 rushing YPG. K-State is going to have its hands full today with Baylor QB Charlie Brewer, who has ten TD’s and no INT’s so far this season. Despite that though, the Bears barely held on for a 23-21 win over Iowa State last weekend, almost blowing a 20-point lead. Key Trends: - Baylor has allowed five sacks over the last two games. - 45 of the Bears 65 points allowed this year have come in the fourth quarter. - K-State has three RB’s with over 120 yards rushing, including 321 by James Gilbert. The verdict: Note that K-State’s QB Skylar Thompson has four TD’s, 604 yards passing and no INT’s himself. K-State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Baylor is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following an ATS victory; lay the short points! |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +11.5 | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* play on WVU. Both teams enter at 3-1. Texas is a heavy road favorite, but I think that rest is going to lead to “rust” here. The Longhorns last played two weeks ago, beating Oklahoma State 36-30. Texas has been getting great play from QB Sam Ehlinger, who had 281 passing yards, four TD’s and an INT in his team’s latest victory. WVU also enters rested and focused after its bye week. The Mountaineers most recently held on for a 29-24 win over Kansas, with RB Martell Pettaway leading with a pair of rushing scores. Key Trends: - The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four following their bye week. - The Longhorns are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight conference contests. - Texas is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. The verdict: WVU is 7-1 SU in its last eight at home and it won’t be an “easy out” here whatsoever. Maybe no outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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10-05-19 | Virginia Tech +14 v. Miami-FL | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Virginia Tech. The Hokies enter off a loss to Duke, 45-10. VT will be focused on the task at hand here and while I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle. Miami Florida is just 2-2 as well, most recently holding on for a tight 17-12 win over lowly CMU. This is a pivotal game as each team looks to keep their bowl hopes alive. Last week VT QB Ryan Willis was 7 of 8 for 112 passing yards, one TD and one INT last week. Fortunately for Willis and company, the Hurricanes have also looked horrible on both sides of the field. Miami also comes out of its bye week, and I think that rest is going to lead to rust. Key Trends: - Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last I’ve following a SU win. - The Hurricanes are a poor 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The verdict: Willis won’t have an easy time moving the ball, but neither will Miami. In what I expect to be a sloppy game, I’m going to grab all the points and expect a “nail-biter!” |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on South Alabama. No outright victory, but I expect this one to be a lot closer than what this line/spread would suggest. Both teams are terrible, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as very real factor for the Jaguars tonight. The Georgia Southern Eagles are 1-3, while South Alabama is 1-4. Last year Georgia Southern went 10-3 and it beat EMU in its bowl game, but it lost all of its talent to graduation and now the Eagles are grounded. Georgia Southern’s only win this year has come against FCS Maine. Georgia Southern is also allowing 35 PPG thorugh its first three FBS contests. The Jaguars are only 1-4, but they’ve had the much more difficult schedule to this point. Note that South Alabama played Nebraska in its opener and only lost by 14 (put up 21 points of its own!) And the Jaguars other contests came against Memphis and tough road contests vs. UAB and ULM. Key Trends: - South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records. - The Eagles are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on field turf. The verdict: I think Georgia Southern is on the ropes and I look for the home side to risk life and limb to pull off the upset tonight. That said, let’s grab all these points! |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5 | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. This is “situational” play for me. Seattle is the “better” team on paper, but divisional contests are always the most difficult (especially on the road.) The Hawks also have a short week with a Thursday night game vs. the division leading Rams coming up. Seattle also comes in off its first loss of the year, getting hammered at home by a Drew Brees-less Saints team (note that the Hawks two other victories have come against current 0-3 teams.) The Cards are 0-2-1, but their season lies in the balance here. A victory today gets them right back into the mix. Key Trends: - Cards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 after posting less than 250 total yards in their last game. - The Seahawks are interestingly just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven after posting more than 250 passing yards in their previous games. The verdict: I think the home side has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright; that said, let’s grab the points! |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New York Giants. The Redskins are terrible. That’s mainly due to some key injuries, but I think they’ve already thrown in the towel after starting 0-3. The Giants though are 1-2 after they made a switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones last week vs. the Bucs. Jones looked great by going 23 of 36 for 336 yards and two TD’s, along with four rushes for 28 yards and another pair of TD’s. The Redskins were just manhandled on both sides of the ball by the Bears and I think they’re in for another long afternoon vs. this tough road division rival/venue. Key Trends: - Washington is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five games on field turf. - New York is a solid 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. a club with a losing record. The verdict: I think Jones is a difference maker and I believe the rookie makes the most of this golden opportunity; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -7 v. Bills | 16-10 | Loss | -100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New England Patriots. The Bills are 3-0. The Patriots are 3-0. I think that’s where the similarities end between the two teams. The Pats rolled to a 30-14 home win over the Jets last time out, while the Bills had to come from behind to knock off the Bengals 21-17. Both teams have been “lights out” defensively early, but New England leads the league by conceding just 199 yards per game. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. - The Bills are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. clubs with winning SU road records. - New England is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Buffalo’s offense is still a work in progress, which doesn’t bode well facing this unbelievable New England defense. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points with confidence! |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! |
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09-28-19 | NC State +6 v. Florida State | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on NC State. I think the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Wolfpack are 3-1 to start, while the Seminoles are 2-2 after beating Louisville at home last weekend. NC State can score, it averages 34.0 PPG, with RB Zonovan Knight leading the charge with 269 rushing yards and three major scores over three games. The WolfPack are also getting solid play from QB Matthew McKay, who has three TD’s and one INT. The run game is strong for the visitors as well with Ricky Person Jr, who will test FSU’s 91st ranked run defense, which allows 159 yards per game. FSU QB James Blackman has also been a manager for the most part, with the Seminoles offense centred around RB Cam Akers. Note though that NC State is allowing just 76 rushing yards per game this year, ranked 14th in the nation. Key Trends: - NC State is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a no-cover where it won SU as the favorite. - FSU is only 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home. - The Seminoles are a poor 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after playing a conference game. The verdict: While I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two hungry sides has its hands on the ball last! |
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09-28-19 | Minnesota v. Purdue +2 | 38-31 | Loss | -118 | 98 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* ROUT on Purdue. Purdue is hungry here sitting at 1-2. Minnesota enters at 3-0, but I think it gets caught flat here vs. this desperate Boilermakers side. Both teams enter off their respective “bye weeks.” Last year Purdue got killed by 31 points in Minnesota, so the “revenge factor” is definitely in play here as well (it’s interesting to note that Purdue’s only win in this series over the last six years as come at home with Head Coach Jeff Brohm.) Key Trends: - Look closer at Minnesota’s 3-0 start. The Gophers have been South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Not exactly murderers row. - Last year the Gophers started 3-0 and then finished the year just 6-6. - Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has six TD passes and two INT’s vs. poor competition and note that he’s already been sacked 11 times this year. The verdict: The home team is 10-4-1 ARTS the last 15 in this series. The Golden Gophers are a poor 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following a SU win. Play on the home side to expose Minnesota badly today in this revenge bounce back scenario! |
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09-28-19 | USC +10 v. Washington | 14-28 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* PUNISHER is on USC. The Trojans have nothing to lose this weekend after upsetting Utah last week. Washington is ranked No. 17, while USC is ranked No. 21 after beating the Utes. This line is so large because of the QB issue for USC, as third string Matt Fink, who led the Trojans to victory last weekend, will be getting the start here. Washington lost to Cal, but it’s since beat Hawaii and BYU. Washington has Jacob Eason under center this season and despite winning his last two, I think he’ll have his hands full in Pac 12 action. Key Trends: - Fink had 350 yards and three TD’s vs. Utah’s suffocating defense last week. - Washington head coach Chris Peterson on facing the USC Defensive line: "This is the best defensive line that we've seen, without question. California has good players, for sure, but just talent-wise, that's the strength of USC's defense. It's interesting that a true freshman is one of the guys who flashes and really shows up, and he does that.” The verdict: I think Washington’s stats are skewed due to its recent sub-par competition. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* play on Virginia Tech. Both teams are 2-1. The Hokies have looked shaky so far this season, losing to Boston College in Week 1 (five turnovers) and then struggling to get past ODU and FCS Furman. Duke meanwhile has looked a bit better, getting smashed by Alabama in its opener, followed by lop-sided wins over North Carolina A&T and MTSU. The Hokies have a big opportunity today on home field though to reverse their early struggles and I believe they step up and do just that. Note that VT has won three straight in this series. Duke’ QB Quentin Harris has looked sharp in the early going, but his numbers are skewed over the last two games facing such poor competition. The Hokies sport the 88th ranked run defense, which matches up well against Duke, which averages 181 rushing yards per game thus far. Duke has given Harris plenty of protection so far, allowing only one sack to this point, but note that the Hokies rank 17th in the country with 3.33 sacks per game. The home side turns to Ryan Willis to air it out today to Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson. Key Trend: - Duke has only forced three turnovers this year. The verdict: I’m unconvinced that Duke can keep up this pace and I think that its young QB finally takes a step back today vs. the more experienced home side and in this difficult road venue; lay the short points! |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens. I think Baltimore is the better all around team. KC has an amazing offense and it has the advantage of playing at home, but I’m unconvinced of the Chiefs’ defense still. Both teams have played sub-par competition so far to get to 2-0, but the Ravens clearly have the offensive fire-power to “hang” with any team in the league. Combined with what I believe to be a superior defensive unit and special teams, I do indeed think we’re getting a gift with the ample points here. Key Trends: - Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. - KC is interestingly just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The verdict: Of course I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can; play on the Ravens! |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders got smoked by the Chiefs at home last week. Oakland hits the road for the first time this year. I think the Raiders get caught looking ahead to the next daunting few weeks, which sees them play only one home game in that span, and that’s when they’re in London, England. Oakland suffered a big blow to its secondary when Johnathan Abram went out in Week 1 vs. Denver. Last week the Raiders’ secondary looked weak against Patrick Mahomes and I think it’ll struggle here too in this difficult road venue. Minnesota looked great in Week 1, but poor in Week 2 at Lambeau. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins and company though in my opinion. Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota’s offense dangerous, as he already has 265 total rushing yards. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. - Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road. The verdict: The Vikes are holding opponents to 7-23 on third downs so far and they’re allowing 108.5 rushing YPG. Minnesota also has six sacks for 50 yards. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders slowing down, or scoring against the Vikings today; lay the points! |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Miami Dolphins Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on Illinois. The Fighting Illini come in hungry after suffering their first defeat of the season in a 34-31 set back to EMU on a last-second field goal. Nebraska comes in a tiny bit complacent here in my opinion after its 44-8 drubbing of NIU. Huskers’ QB Adrian Martinez has 725 passing yards to open the year, but I think he’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball on the road in Big Ten play. Illinois beat Akron 42-3 and UConn 31-23 and has looked competitive in every game thus far. Last week QB Brandon Peterson had 297 yards passing with two TD’s and an INT. Also note that Illinois RB Reggie Corbin had 144 yards ion 18 carries. Key Trends: - Nebraska is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including only 1-2 ATS this year. - Illinois is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: I’m expecting another dog fight from the Illini today; so grab up as many points as you can! |
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09-21-19 | Old Dominion +29 v. Virginia | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* SPECIAL is on ODU. After beating the Seminoles last week, I think that UVA gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. Last year ODU was 4-8, but it’s looked more competitive this season. Last week ODU faced the Hokies and it kept it relatively close. Overall the Monarchs are allowing only 26 PPG, but managing just 20.6. ODU runs the ball twice as much as it passes, but facing a team which does the same helps the visitors here in my opinion. Bryce Perkins has been great in the early going for UVA, but as mentioned off the top I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the home side after last week’s big upset victory. Key Trends: - ODU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring three points or less in the first half of its last game. - Virginia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points. The verdict: Old Dominion won’t be rolling over here. The Monarchs’ strength on defense makes “the points” the correct call in this matchup; play on ODU! |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida -11 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCF. UCF started last year 3-0 and it enters this one with a 3-0 record as well. I believe the Knights keep the foot on the gas here and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. And if recent history is any precedence, then UCF has to be loving its chances as it destroyed Pitt last year 45-14. The Knights’ offense has been impressive, averaging 50 PPG so far. Last week the Knights smashed Stanford 45-27. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch last year to finish 7-7 and it’s also stumbled out of the gates this season by going 1-2. Last week the Panthers feel 17-10 at Penn State. Key Trends: - The Knights allow only 13.7 PPG The verdict: UCF QB Dillon Gabriel went 22 of 40 for 347 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s last week. All four TD passes went to four different players. Pittsburgh has gotten decent play from QB Kenny Pickett, but I’m not reading too much into last week’s stats. Look for the Golden Knight’s smothering defensive play to be too much for the home side to handle down the stretch; lay the points! |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Ohio | 45-25 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* BEWARE OF DOG play is on Louisiana Lafayette. Outright victory? Of course it’s not out of the question, but I think that grabbing the points is the savvy move in this one. Ohio enters off back-to-back losses, while the Ragin Cajuns enter off a 77-6 win and average 590.3 YPG of offense (currently fourth in the country). The Cajuns limited FCS opponent Texas Southern to just 236 yards last week, while racking up 748 of their own. The Bobcats posted an easy 41-20 win over Rhode Island in their opener, but they’ve since lost two straight, falling 20-10 to Pittsburgh and 33-31 to the Herd last weekend. QB Nathan Rourke was a stand out in a losing cause for Ohio last week, throwing for 215 yards and three TD’s, while also running for another 118 yards. Key Trends: - Louisiana Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road. - The Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference contests. The verdict: I think this is a tight game. I understand that the Cajuns’ early numbers are skewed, but the offense can unquestionably move the chains; for all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points! |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -104 | 59 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Houston. It’s the opening of AAC play for both teams. Houston is just 1-2 after back to back losses to two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Washington State. D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet so far, but I think that’s been because of the level of competition to open. The Green Wave have made significant strides and enter at 2-1, but I think they’ll have a hard time containing King and company and this Cougars offense which finished No. 16 in passing in the nation last year. Justin McMillan is a legitimate dual threat back for the Green Wave, but I don’t expect the Cougars to give up as many yards to him as they did to Jalen Hurts. Key Trends: - Houston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest. - Tulane is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home win by 17 points or more. The verdict: Tulane lacks the scoring punch of Houston and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I think this one comes right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Titans. The Titans dismantled the Browns in Week 1 and I think they’re going to control this game vs. their division rival at home as well in Week 2. Indianapolis plays its second straight game away from home after losing a heart breaker to the Chargers in OT in LA in Week 1. The Colts put everything they had on the line in that one to try and pull off the upset, but it still wasn’t enough. With that heartbreaker still on the front of their minds, I think the visitors get steamrolled today by this confident Titans side. Key Trends: Yes the Colts offensive line was impressive in Week 1, but Tennessee’s offensive line was also dominant last week. In every single category I’m giving Tennessee the advantage today, especially with Marcus Mariota under center. Finally note that the Titans defeated the Colts twice in 2018 when Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and note that they’ve won 16 of their last 20 games in Nashville overall; lay the points! |
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09-15-19 | Chargers -3 v. Lions | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. LA definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here after nearly losing to the Colts in Week 1, managing the 30-24 OT victory after getting outscored 18-7 in the second half. The Lions though looked even worse by blowing an 18-point lead to the Cardinals and then leaving Arizona with a tie after neither side could score in OT. Key Trends: - LA is 6-1 SU in its last seven vs. the NFC (also 5-2 ATS in those games.) - The Chargers were 7-1 SU on the road last year. - The Lions are only 6-11 in their last 17 as a home underdog. The verdict: Philip Rivers had 333 yards and three TD’s for the Chargers last week and after the way that rookie QB Kyler Murray dismantled the Lions’ defense last week, I think the veteran “has himself a day” here as well; lay the short points! |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Giants. Buffalo came from behind to beat the Jets 17-16 on the road last weekend. The Bills final stats looked sharp, but for much of that game Buffalo struggled. New York started decently in Dallas last weekend, but then it also fell apart down the stretch, falling 35-17 once it was all said and done. Buffalo’s defense stepped up big against the Jets, but I have a hard time seeing lightning striking twice for the offensively challenged Bills. Eli Manning and the Giants are essentially in a “must win” scenario early, as second straight loss to open the year will undoubtedly have all of his naysayers calling for his termination immediately. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: The Giants looked poor against the pass with Dak Prescott, but the young secondary catches a break this week facing Josh Allen and the offensively challenged Bills; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +17 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. New England roared out to an easy victory over Pittsburgh in its opener and now its set to welcome dynamic receiver Antonio Brown into the mix. The Dolphins were steamrolled 52-10 by the Ravens in their opener and afterwards several players requested trades. Clearly on paper this is a major mismatch, but I expect this in fact to work in our favor here. The Patriots will rest starting players after they have a comfortable lead and the home side WILL NOT be lacking for motivation after getting crushed in Week 1. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side (ATS clearly!) Key Trends: - The Pats are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven played in Miami. - The home side is 14-3 ATS the last 17 in this series. The verdict: I think the Pats take the foot off the gas in the second half and the hungry Fish sneak in comfortably through the back door down the stretch; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Dallas managed a 35-17 win in its opener vs. the Giants, while the Redskins are looking to bounce back after they fell 32-27 at Philadelphia. Washington had a 20-7 lead at one point in that one, before then falling apart. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the home side, as an 0-2 hole to start the year, combined with a second straight loss to a divisional foe will clearly be too much for the Skins to overcome. Dallas gave up 151 rushing hards to Saquon Barkley last week, so Washington RB Adrian Peterson will be seeing plenty of action. Key Trends: - Dallas is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a division game. - Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. The verdict: With the season on the line, look for the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire! |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -100 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks are 1-0. The Steelers are 0-1. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Steelers, especially after losing to the Patriots in Week 1 and the way in which the Ravens crushed the Fish last weekend. The pressure is on Pittsburgh to step up and deliver in this favorable home situation. The Hawks may have won last week, but it was far from convincing by outlasting Cincinnati 21-20. Key Trends: - Andy Dalton had 415 yards passing and two TD’s for the Bengals vs. the Hawks last weekend. Clearly Big Ben is licking his chops to get a shot at this suspect secondary. The verdict: I think that the Steelers lay it all on the line this weekend and I expect the Hawks to throw in the white flag early; lay the points! |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +23.5 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA No outright victory obviously, but after starting 0-2 the UCLA Bruins are going to be desperate to pull off an upset here. With nothing to lose and playing with a sense of season ending desperation, I do indeed believe that the home side will keep this one competitive until the final moments. And would anyone fault the Sooners if they were caught “looking past” their lowly opponent in some small way today, especially after easily beating Houston and South Dakota? UCLA has talent on the defensive side of the ball and Sooners’ QB Jalen Hurts will be tested. OU’s D though is still trying to find itself under new coordinator Alex Grinch, so UCLA RB Joshua Kelly and company will have their opportunities. Key Trends: - Oklahoma is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite. - UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: UCLA has the size up front to make things difficult for OU. No outright, but expect this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points! |
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09-14-19 | Miami-OH v. Cincinnati -16 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Cincinnati. Miami looked poor in its opener vs. Iowa and it lost 21-0 at home to the Bearcats last season. Cincinnati is going to be super motivated obviously after getting spanked by Ohio State last weekend. The Bearcats though haven’t lost a home game since November 2017. Cinncy QB Desmond Ridder will obviously have a much easier time this week vs. the RedHawks, who are allowing 27.5 PPG thus far. Brett Gabbert has been solid early for Miami Ohio, but this is definitely his stiffest test yet. Key Trends: - Miami Ohio is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. - Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. The verdict: After last week’s national embarrassment, I look for Cincinnati to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup; lay the points! |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on in Mississippi State. Last year the Bulldogs smashed K-State 31-10 in Manhattan and once the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect a similar style of blowout. The Wildcats come in with optimism after starting the year 2-0, but a quick look at their competition (FCS Nicholls State and MAC opponent Bowling Green) tells the real story. Mississippi State is 2-0 as well to the start the season, but it’s level of competition has been significantly greater, having beat Louisiana and Southern Miss. K-State QB Skylar Thompson has looked great in the early going, but clearly he facets his stiffest test yet. Key Trends: - The Bulldogs have forced at least one turnover in 18 straight games. - Through two games Mississippi State has recovered four fumbles and posted three INT’s. The verdict: The Bulldogs are also 13-1 vs. non-conference opponents the last three years. Look for the home side’s aggressive defense to prove to be the difference maker and lay the points with confidence! |
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