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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-20-16 | Angels v. White Sox -154 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox are off a to strong start, upping their record to 9-5 following last night's commanding 5-0 shutout of the Angels. This is a team that a lot of folks (myself among them) figured would improve in 2016. Meanwhile, the Halos are a team that I'm not high on - at all. Having Mike Trout on the roster somewhat clouds people's judgement about the club as a whole and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them finish in the cellar of the AL West. Today's pitching matchup is certainly slanted in favor of the home team, an advantage that they probably don't even need, but will gladly take. Go with Chicago here. Three starts into the season, we find Chicago's Chris Sale at a perfect 3-0 w/ a 2.75 ERA and 0.783 WHIP. His last time out, I took him and he delivered a superb outing, a complete game two-hit shutout of the Rays where 71 of his 106 pitches were strikes. At one point, Sale retired 16 consecutive hitters. Furthermore, the lefty has 23 strikeouts in 23 innings to this point in the season. He figures to have a relatively easy time here w/ an Angels lineup that is batting a collective .225 this season, including .191 vs. southpaw starters. The task at hand is made easier by the fact that Trout, the Angels best hitter, is struggling mightily right now. Through 14 games, the former MVP is batting just .220 w/ a .673 OPS. He was 0 for 3 yday. Simply put, if Trout isn't hitting, the Angels are going to struggle to score runs this year. The Angels didn't even get a hit until the fifth inning Tuesday and finished the game w/ only three total. Sale has had their number in the past, going 4-0 w/ a 1.73 ERA in five starts and has held Trout to 3 for 13 at the plate. This puts an undue burden on LA starter Garrett Richards, who already has an 0-3 TSR thanks to lousy run support. The team has a -12 run differential right now, which is third worst in the entire American League. Remember that they were just swept by Minnesota, who was previously winless. It's the Angels' ninth straight road game as well and a rare day game for them at US Cellular Field (first in four years). I look for Sale and the White Sox to continue rolling. 8* Chi White Sox |
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04-19-16 | Pirates -139 v. Padres | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -139 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (10:10 ET): The Pirates got off to that fast start by sweeping the Cardinals at home, but are now just 7-6 overall. They did just beat Milwaukee two straight times over the weekend, however, and now get their first crack of the season at a San Diego team that's likely to be really bad this year. Of course, I shouldn't really have to rehash what happened to the Padres in their first series of 2016 (outscored 25-0) and while they were then able to somewhat turn things around w/ 29 runs scored in just two games at Colorado, they've lost six of eight since then, scoring five runs or less every time. Those struggles are unlikely to be corrected here, going up against a pitcher they've struggled to hit in the past. Go with the Bucs. Francisco Liriano was actually scratched from his last start, so he'll be working here with 10 days in between outings. After throwing six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against St. Louis on Opening Day, Liriano struggled a bit vs. Cincinnati, issuing four walks and allowing five hits. The team still won, mind you, 6-5. Expect little in the way of struggles tonight, however, as Liriano has a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts vs. San Diego, a team that has scored all of 15 runs in 10 games outside of Coors Field in 2016. As a team, the Padres are batting just .185 at Petco this season while averaging just 1.7 runs per game. The Pirates' offense, meanwhile, is leaving a lot of runners on base. In fact, they've left a MLB-high 117 runners on base. They had 17 hits in Sunday's win over Milwaukee and actually lead all of baseball in both batting average (.295) and OBP (.385). That's very bad news for Padres starter Colin Rea, who didn't get much support his last time out and also was roughed up in his season debut (at Coors Field).  Pittsburgh took five of seven matchups from San Diego last season and the teams are no closer here in 2016. 8* Pittsburgh |
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04-19-16 | Nationals -140 v. Marlins | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:10 ET): After a 9-1 start, the Nationals have dropped B2B games, including one here in Miami last night by a score of 6-1. But they also had to face Jose Fernandez Monday, in Miami, where Fernandez has lost only one time in his entire career. Sunday's loss occurred in extra innings (in Philadelphia). Two of their three losses this year have come at the hands of the Marlins as there was also a 6-4 setback back on April 7th (home opener). Tonight, I'll call for them to bounce back with Stephen Strasburg on the hill as he's looked very good in his first two starts and we know who the better team is here. At +22, the Nats' run differential is 4th best in the league. Meanwhile, only one time has Miami been able to post B2B wins. After allowing just one run in six innings his first time out against Atlanta, Strasburg allowed just two (only only four hits) in 7 2/3 innings on Thursday. I think people forget what a strong finish he had to 2015 and he now has a 13-2 TSR his L15 starts including a perfect 6-0 his last six. He's had some difficulties dealing with Miami in his career, but he did beat them twice down the stretch in 2015. Whether or not Strasburg is now actually using a slider, he seems to be a pitching better and has yet to give up a home run. Miami's Adam Conley was a major surprise his last time out, throwing six scoreless innings of four hit ball. But the team still ended up losing 2-1 to the Mets. That's an interesting contrast to his first start where he allowed three runs in one inning (to the Nationals), yet his team actually got the win there, 6-4. If you're wondering why he lasted only one inning, there was a weather delay. The Washington offense, while silent the last two games, is still among the league leaders w/ 52 runs (best in the division), but more important has been the run prevention side of the ledger as they've given up only 30 in 12 games. That's owed to a bullpen that's been much better than it was last year, so Strasburg should get the requisite support from both his offense and relievers that you'd be looking for. 8* Washington |
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04-19-16 | Mariners v. Indians -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians were embarrassed at home on Sunday, losing 6-0 to the Mets as Corey Kluber shockingly fell to 0-3. The Tribe are 5-2 in all other games though and here they welcome in a Seattle team that's 5-7 overall. I'm actually high on both of these teams in 2016, but here I'm backing Cleveland as I really like their starter Carlos Carrasco and not his counterpart Wade Miley for the Mariners. The Indians have gone 12-7 the last two seasons when coming off a shutout loss and should bounce back from Sunday's disaster as they are also 3-1 off a loss this year. Aside from three outbursts, the M's offense has not been good so far, scoring three runs or less in the other nine games. Cleveland has had to face a lot of lefty starters thus far as in six in the first 10 games. They haven't had much luck against southpaws, but they've also had to deal with a number of good ones, like Chris Sale and David Price. Wade Miley is not anywhere close to that level and in fact has given up 11 runs in 12 innings to this point and his last time out, the team lost 8-0 (to the Rangers). On the road last year, pitching for Boston, Miley really struggled w/ a 1.584 WHIP. It's not a good sign then that he struggled so badly at home his last time out. Note that the Tribe are averaging 6.2 runs per game vs. LH starters, so expect them to bounce back from a disastrous showing against Steven Matz on Sunday.  As alluded to above, Seattle's offense is not doing much right now as they are batting a collective .216 the last seven games. In the last eight games, they've totaled just 22 runs and that includes one seven-run effort. They've also struck out 25 times the last two games. That's bad news facing a pitcher like Carrasco, who has always had an outstanding strikeout ratio (216 K's in 183.2 IP last season). Carrasco posted an 8-1 KW ratio in his last start, a quality outing that saw him allow just one run on four hits in 8 IP.  It resulted in a 4-1 win at Tampa Bay. I expect this to be another win as the Indians bounce back at home. 8* Cleveland |
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04-18-16 | Brewers +123 v. Twins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
9* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Somebody break up the Twins! After starting 0-9, they just swept the Angels here at home and in the process, scored as many runs in those three wins (14) as they did in their nine losses. But those expecting this club to even get back to mediocrity this season are going to be sorely disappointed. Previously, I'd written how the team was favored on the money line in just 35 out of 162 games last season. Tonight will be the the third time this season and while that may not sound significant, it was the Twins consistently being mispriced that caused them to turn such a profit in 2015. I anticipate the opposite being true this season and such is the case here as they are overvalued coming into this series vs. Milwaukee. The National League got hammered in Interleague play last season, but outside of a 1-5 mark vs. the Tigers is off to a much better start this year (7-3 in all other games). Milwaukee has already taken two of three from Houston and this is a much weaker opponent on paper. The Brew Crew have dropped four of their last six, but having played at both Pittsburgh and St. Louis that probably was to be expected. Last year saw them take four of six from the Twins and that includes two of three here at Target Field. Since the start of the 2014 season, Minnesota is just 17-23 vs. the National League. The fact that Chase Anderson is starting for Milwaukee here is definitely an encouraging bit of news. Through two starts, Anderson has yet to allow a single earned run (three unearned his last time out, all in the first inning) and has put just 10 runners on base in 11 innings. The team won both starts, by identical 6-4 scores, over Houston and St. Louis. I certainly give Anderson the edge here over Twins starter Phil Hughes, who has an 0-2 team start record thus far despite two quality starts. Hughes has posted subpar numbers in five of the last six seasons and I really don't see any signs of him turning things around in 2016. The Twins are 11-19 the last three seasons when off three consecutive victories. 9* Milwaukee |
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04-18-16 | Mets -170 v. Phillies | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets certainly surprised me yday, jumping all over Corey Kluber early en route to a 6-0 win. It's hardly been a great start to the year for the reigning National League champs, but this series vs. Philadelphia offers up an excellent opportunity to "get things going" in the right direction. The Phillies are obviously a major surprise at 6-7 and off a win yday (in extra innings) over the Nationals. But they have been outscored by 18 runs this year, indicating that they are nowhere near as good as that record. It's important to remember that this was one of the two worst teams in baseball last season and they're expected to be near the bottom again in 2016. Go w/ the Mets in the series opener. New York was 14-5 against Philadelphia last season, but dropped two of three to them in a series that took place a little over a week ago. One of those Phillies' victories came by a 1-0 score behind Vince Velasquez (who starts tomorrow). Mets hitters were far more successful against Jerad Eickhoff, scoring three times off of him in five innings en route to a 7-2 victory. Once again, they draw Eickhoff in the series opener. Eickhoff was far more effective in his last start, but that was against the light-hitting Padres. Remember that the Mets were one of the highest scoring road teams in the league last season. They are 4.4 runs per game away from home this year and just totaled 17 runs in winning the series in Cleveland over the weekend. The Mets will be giving the baseball to Noah Syndergaard this evening and he has looked quite good in his two starts thus far, especially the last one, even though his team lost. Going up against Jose Fernandez and the Marlins, Syndergaard tossed seven strong innings where he allowed just one run and recorded 12 strikeouts. But it wasn't enough as Miami won the game 2-1. Syndergaard didn't allow any runs in his first start and just three hits over six innings (9-1 KW ratio), which was 2-0 win at Kansas City. I expect him to mow down the Phillies lineup in short order as he won both starts against them in 2015, striking out 15 batters in 12 1/3 innings. 6* NY Mets |
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04-17-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -132 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): I think that MLB's two most famous franchises out on the West Coast are going to be just fine in 2016. Both the Giants and Dodgers come into tonight's nationally televised affair at 7-5 as they have split the first two games of this three-game set. San Francisco won yday, 4-3, on the arm of Johnny Cueto, who retired the first 13 batters he saw en route to 7 1/3 strong innings. But tonight, it's Los Angeles that figures to have the stronger starter, that being Kenta Maeda, who through two starts has yet to even give up a single run! Also, while these rivals sport identical records, the Dodgers have a run differential that's twice as good (+22 to +11), which should tell you right there who is off to the better start to the season. Though he's gone "only" six innings in both starts, this Maeda appears to be as good as advertised. He's issued only one walk and just 10 hits, so his WHIP is 0.917. Now this will be the first time that he's worked with catcher Yasmani Grandal, but given Grandal's excellent pitch framing ability, I do not anticipate this being any sort of problem. According to Elias, no pitcher in the modern era has started his career w/ three consecutive scoreless outings of 6+ innings, so there could be some regression, but it will be minimal. Plus, I like the fact that the Dodgers are an impressive 89-55 after a loss since the start of the 2014 seasons. The offense is also averaging a healthy 5.2 runs per game so far. San Francisco counters w/ Jeff Samardzija, the other big FA acquisition besides Cueto. This will be the first game of the series where the pitching matchup isn't a rematch from the prior series at AT&T Park where the Giants took three of four. Both of LA's wins over San Fran this year have come in the high profile Kershaw vs. Bumgarner battles, but this will be the Giants first time seeing Maeda. As for Samardzija, he's been just "okay" so far, pitching against what are perceived to be two "bad" teams (Colorado & Milwaukee). This is his third time starting on the road. Remember that he comes off a very frustrating season where his ERA was nearly 5.00. He's allowed 14 hits and five walks to this point (in just 13 1/3 IP) and the Giants offense has actually been relatively held in check the last four games, Buster Posey in particular as he's 0 for his last 12 at the plate. While third in runs scored and fifth in slugging, Giants hitters are just 13 in on base percentage. I've got the home team winning this one. 8* LA Dodgers |
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04-17-16 | Royals v. A's -106 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Saturday figured to be the day that the A's broke through against the Royals as they sent ace Sonny Gray to the hill and he wound up delivering a pretty strong outing en route to his team prevailing 5-3. Today, I'll call for the A's to make it B2B wins over the reigning World Series champs as this is a team that I truly believe was much better than their record last year and thus is set to improve. No longer can there be any doubt that Kansas City is good, but they've also been a little fortunate in 2016 in the sense that they already own four one-run victories. Oakland was last in the league in that department a year ago (19-35 in one-run games!) and is "due" to start catching some breaks. One such one-run victory for KC came in Kris Medlen's first start. Though Medlen allowed six hits and issued four walks in just five innings of work, he got away with allowing only two runs and the team did beat Houston 3-2. Medlen has now won all five of his road starts with KC, posting a 1.95 ERA, but I'm still not sold as his ERA in four home starts was 7.59, which means this is simply an inconsistent starter. The Oakland lineup that he'll face today has had it's fair share of struggles in this early part of the season, but last night's 10-hit performance was encouraging and there's simply no way they continue to average fewer than three runs per game. Also set to improve is the club's 2-7 home record. Chris Bassitt will be the starter this afternoon for Oakland and he is coming off a win over Felix Hernandez and Seattle last Sunday. Though he did walk five batters, Bassitt allowed only one unearned run and three hits through seven innings as the team prevailed 2-1. Obviously, he's well rested and I like that he's had two extra days in between starts compared to Medlen. Kansas City has yet to drop B2B games this season, but they're not the Golden State Warriors and this isn't the NBA. It's going to happen sooner rather than later and I'll call for that time to be today as another record that's due to improve is the A's 4-12 mark against the Royals since the start of 2014. 10*Oakland |
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04-17-16 | Mets v. Indians -154 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -154 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians evened this Interleague series up at a game apiece via a 7-5 win on Saturday and in doing so handed Matt Harvey his third consecutive loss to open 2016. Both of these teams came into the season with World Series aspirations, yet quite frankly the early returns have been mediocre at best. The Mets are now 4-6 and forget about the disappointing starting rotation, it's been the offense (or more precisely a "lack of it") that's been the real issue here. The reigning Senior Circuit champs are batting a collective .218 entering Sunday w/ an on base percentage of .294. Given the pitcher that they're facing here today (former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber), I do not like their chances. With the names "Matz" and "Kluber" on the Progressive Field marquee Sunday, you wouldn't expect to see the kind of numbers that, sadly, are a reality for both starting pitchers. Matz first start of 2016 was a complete disaster as he allowed seven runs to Miami w/o even getting out of the second inning. That's "good enough" for a 37.72 ERA and 4.790 WHIP if you're keeping score at home. Kluber, meanwhile, has a 4.85 ERA and 1.308 WHIP after two starts, both Cleveland losses. The 2014 Cy Young winner was the biggest money losing starter in all of baseball last year, which seemed odd due to the fact his numbers stayed pretty consistent. Just yday, Harvey showed that no pitcher is immune to losing streaks, but suffice to say that it's "high time" that Kluber got back on track. Tribe hitters haven't exactly given Kluber a ton of support either as they've totaled only three runs for him thus far. But yesterday saw them bust loose for seven runs and note that it was a 7-1 game heading into the eighth inning. This lineup now has 11+ hits in three consecutive games, scoring 18 runs during that span. Note that Kluber wasn't exactly terrible his last time out; he had given up only one run on three hits, in fact, over seven innings on Tuesday against Tampa Bay. But then came a two-run homer and that was all she wrote. But one thing in particular has me leaning to Kluber here and that's the fact he's dominated National League foes to the tune of 10-1 w/ a 1.81 ERA in 12 career starts. That, coupled with the notion that he's due to start progressing to the mean in terms of net units, leads me to believe the Indians are a strong play today. 8* Cleveland |
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04-16-16 | Orioles v. Rangers -102 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): After cashing the Rangers in Thursday's series opener (just Baltimore's second loss of the season), I laid off last night and it's a good thing that I did as the O's prevailed in lopsided fashion, 11-5. But I'm back on the Rangers' bandwagon tonight as Orioles starter Yovani Gallardo should feel fortunate to have a 2-0 team start record given that he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Last time out, he was shelled for five runs in five innings, but lucky that the offense backed him up in a 9-7 win over Boston (rare bad outing by David Price). Gallardo won't be as lucky here as he goes up against Colby Lewis, who has turned in B2B quality starts against Seattle to open the year. I'm on Texas here. Though on the road, Lewis was sharper the second time around vs. Seattle, giving up just one run and four hits in a 7-3 win Monday. At one point, he retired 13 consecutive batters. Few expected this Rangers' rotation to be so strong, but in 12 games, no starter has allowed more than three earned runs and that level of performance means the team always has a shot to win. You might be looking at the final score from last night and wonder how that's the case. Well, after six strong innings from starter Martin Perez, the bullpen allowed nine runs in a terrible seventh inning that saw Baltimore hit four home runs. I assure you that we won't be seeing that again. Texas is still 7-2 head to head vs. Baltimore since the start of last season. If you recall, Gallardo pitched for the Rangers last season (won Gm 1 of the LDS), so emotions should be running high in both dugouts here. But if Gallardo is anything like what we saw on Monday, then it doesn't matter what the emotion is. I have to say that the Orioles are a major surprise at 8-2 (I had them pegged for last in the AL East) and these offensive numbers of theirs simply are not sustainable. Meanwhile, the Rangers lineup is due to pick up after hitting only .197 so far here in Arlington. The Orioles are giving up 5.4 runs per game on the road this year and have been right at that average through the first two games of this series. Look for Lewis to lead the charge and the offense to take care of Gallardo here. 10* Texas |
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04-16-16 | Tigers v. Astros -125 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:10 ET): It took Dallas Keuchel pitching at home, but the Astros got back on track (well, sort of) w/ a 1-0 victory last night over the Tigers in the opener of a three-game set here at Minute Maid Park. Keuchel, as expected, was superb w/ eight scoreless innings. Tonight, it is Colin McHugh being charged w/ shutting down the Tigers lineup. I actually played McHugh in his last start and boy did he come up big, delivering seven scoreless innings of his own against the defending World Series champion Royals. That was the last time that Houston had won prior to yesterday, but I'll call for them to make it B2B victories here as McHugh should pitch well again, especially in relation to his counterpart, Justin Verlander. Houston has actually yet to win consecutive games this season. Their bullpen, newly acquired closer Ken Giles in particular, has generally been a disaster. But when you're getting a start like Keuchel's last night or McHugh's on Monday, that's not a factor. Besides, those bullpen numbers should start to improve anyway. As for McHugh, that first start of the season was an aberration and not cause for concern (he allowed six runs and got only one hitter out). Last year saw him post a 3.39 ERA w/ over 350 IP and Monday saw 72 of his 102 pitches go for strikes, including 19 of 30 on the first pitch hitters saw. Last season saw McHugh post a 2.72 ERA in two starts vs. Detroit. As mentioned previously, the Tigers counter w/ Verlander, who is coming off a miserable showing Monday vs. Pittsburgh. Pitching at home, he gave up seven runs on 10 hits in just 4 1/3 IP. While McHugh showed that you can bounce back from an outing like that, Verlander's best days are in the past. The Astros offense is also due to get going as there's only one way for a .239 batting average and .312 batting average to go. After losing three in a row at home to the Royals, this is a team due for a turnaround this weekend. Keuchel got it started last night and McHugh will continue it here. I'm just not sold on the Tigers' offense and its aging core being able to sustain the kind of numbers we've seen so far over the long haul. 10* Houston |
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04-16-16 | Mariners -125 v. Yankees | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
8* Seattle (1:00 ET): Recently, I came across a case for Felix Hernandez being the "unluckiest" pitcher of all-time. It was rather convincing. Did you know that there have been 45 different times in King Felix's career where he's allowed zero runs or one run and didn't get the win? That's insane. One such outing came his last time out as he blanked Oakland over seven innings (allowed just three hits) w/ 10 K's, yet the bullpen came in and blew the game. In two starts this year, Hernandez has a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP, but no wins to show for it. That's criminally unfair. I look for that to change though after this afternoon as he faces a Yankees lineup that was held to only one run yday by Nick Karns (Seattle won 7-1). Hernandez has traditionally pitched well here at Yankee Stadium. In eight starts, he's gone 5-1 w/ a 1.38 ERA. Of course, his last start in the Bronx saw him end up on the wrong end of a 2-1 loss (he did not factor into the decision). But I expect him and the Mariners to have a better result today considering how the Yankees have played recently (three straight losses). In those three straight losses, the Yankees offense has scored just five runs and has only 17 hits. Plus, Hernandez has not gone winless through his first three starts of any season since '06. Simply put, he's due for a win. By the way, in his first start of the season, King Felix allowed only one hit in six innings yet the team still lost. That's not right. The Mariners' lineup has had its share of struggles vs. left-handed starters so far in 2016, but I think that they'll be able to get to CC Sabathia on Saturday. Last Saturday, I actually played the hefty lefty in his season debut as he went six strong innings while giving up only three runs on four hits. But he also issued four walks and got a lot of help from an offense, which has been in a slump ever since. It's important to remember that Sabathia posted the sixth worst ERA in all of baseball last season (4.73) and opponents hit .285 off of him. As a home underdog in the +100 to +125 range, New York is only 9-16 the last three seasons. Though 4-6 this season, the Mariners are dead even in runs scored vs. allowed. Look for them to make it two in a row today. 8* Seattle |
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04-15-16 | Royals -103 v. A's | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
9* Oakland (10:05 ET): On the "luck" scale, these teams have been on opposite ends of the spectrum ever since the start of last season. Kansas City, we know, rode its good fortune all the way to the franchise's first World Series Championship in 30 years. Oakland lost more one-run games than anybody in 2015 and finished w/ the worst record in the American League. So far in 2016, it's been more of the same. The Royals are 7-2 w/ four one-run victories while the A's are only 4-6 and were just swept here at home by the Angels. I expect these drastically different fortunes to turn around however, starting tonight, as I'm going to throw my support behind Oakland at home as they're due to start making some money. The A's were badly mispriced on a game by game basis in 2015 and as a result dropped 29.5 units at the betting window, more than every other team w/ the exception of Cincinnati. But a lot of that was bad luck as they lost 23 times when leading after six innings and there were those 35 one-run defeats as well. I remain steadfast that Billy Beane's team is going to show improvement this year. Though they were just swept the Angels, there is the benefit here of having had Thursday off, a luxury KC does not enjoy. Without question, the offense has struggled to this point. But those numbers can only go up. It's easy to focus on what happened in the last series, but remember the A's did sweep the Mariners, in Seattle, last weekend. So far, Kansas City has faced the two worst offenses in the game (Mets, Twins) and an opponent whose bullpen seems to be in flux (Houston). Now, the Royals have something to do with that, but their own bullpen is due to regress this year and the starting rotation is unlikely to maintain its current numbers. Edinson Volquez gets the baseball tonight and while he's coming off a high strikeout performance (10 in 5 2/3 IP), don't read too much into that as it came at the expense of the Twins. Meanwhile, Oakland's Rich Hill also stuck out 10 batters in his last start, a 6-1 win in Seattle. Hill also allowed just five hits in 6 IP as opposed to the eight Volquez allowed while getting one less hitter out. 9* Oakland |
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04-15-16 | White Sox -118 v. Rays | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): The White Sox have shown themselves to be an improved team so far in 2016 (7-2 start) while the Rays are currently languishing in last in the AL East. I don't see that dichotomy changing after tonight as the road team will send Chris Sale to the hill for the opener of a three-game set. Sale hasn't been overly dominant in either of his two starts so far, but both times saw him go seven innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer. Here, facing a Rays lineup which is struggling big time, I anticipate another quality start from Chicago's ace. Tampa Bay may have taken five of the six meetings last year, but right now it appears as if the White Sox are the better team and I like them tonight. Here at home, the Rays just dropped two of three to Cleveland and they were shutout yday to the tune of 6-0. They'd scored just one run the day previous and have yet to score more than five times in any game this season. In fact, they enter Friday as the third lowest scoring team in all of baseball (24 runs in nine games) and only Oakland has an OBP lower than Tampa's .269. This all makes them likely candidates to be shut down by Sale, a lefty, as the Rays are hitting just .198 vs. southpaws so far this season. Of the 21 outs recorded by Sale in his last start, 13 were via groundout, which is a good sign. Rays' hitters also struck out 14 times yday. The White Sox bullpen has been tremendous to this point, which is another nice luxury to have. The Rays will send Jake Odorizzi to the bump tonight and he did not fare so well in his previous start where he gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings and the team lost 5-3 to the Orioles. The White Sox have been carried by their pitching thus far, but I think they can get to Odorizzi, who tends to give up his fair share of home runs. Of course, given how poorly so many of the Rays hitters are swinging the bats right now, it shouldn't take many runs for the White Sox to win this game. Tampa Bay managed only five hits in each of the three games vs. Cleveland and has scored a total of one run in the last 18 innings. They are just 11-17 the L2 seasons after being shut out in the previous game. 10* Chi White Sox |
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04-15-16 | Rockies v. Cubs -209 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -209 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
5* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): The price is high here, yet totally justified as the Rockies have never been a good road team and the Cubs are actually living up to their advanced billing. Give credit to Colorado as they are off B2B wins where they totaled 21 runs. But those games were contested within the friendly confines of Coors Field. They did open the year by taking two of three in Arizona, but success has generally never found this team on the road (32-49 last season) where their offense dips dramatically. Their slash line in '15 was .277/.375/.652, which ranked 30th/29th/30th respectively and they scored the second fewest runs as well, just one more than Atlanta. That's trouble here against a Cubs team that is #1 in runs scored so far and has a monster +43 run differential (only one other team is better than +20). This should be an easy one for the home team. The Rockies got a strong outing from Jorge De La Rosa yday in an 11-6 win over the Giants. But it was really a nine-run fifth that put the game away for good. That kind of offensive outburst is certainly unlikely to be repeated (31 of the team's 58 runs scored this year have come in three games) and I don't think today's starter Chad Bettis is going to give his team the same kind of start De La Rosa did on Thursday. Bettis was roughed up in his lone road start (in Arizona) as he allowed five runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 IP, plus he walked three batters. Making life more difficult for Bettis this afternoon is the fact that Rockies regular catcher, Nick Hundley, is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. Also, Colorado is just 7-21 their L28 games at Wrigley Field. The Cubs offense is #1 in runs scored and on base percentage, so this is likely to be a productive weekend for them given that they are facing a pitching staff that has allowed the most home runs and hits in all of baseball. In his first start, Kyle Hendricks beat Zack Greinke in Arizona by allowing only four hits over 6 2/3 innings. With the expected run support (Colorado has allowed 5+ runs in 7 of 9 games), Hendricks should have little difficulty shutting down a lineup that typically regresses on the road anyway. 5* Chi Cubs |
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