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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#453) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: Miami can’t be laying more than a field goal. We saw that very clearly in their last try as home chalk, lucky to escape with an overtime win over the Browns, only because Cleveland missed the potential game winning field goal. We’ve seen that throughout the Ryan Tannehill era. My numbers show the Dolphins at 5-11 ATS as home favorites dating back to the start of the 2013 campaign. And Miami has been dealing with a multitude of off-field distractions as well, most notably Hurricane Matthew which disrupted their practice schedule and their home lives. Tennessee is 1-3 SU and ATS, but they’ve been in position to win every game in the fourth quarter. They lost at Houston last week on a punt return touchdown. The previous week, their game-tying drive came up short after reaching the Oakland 12 yard line. They rallied to win at Detroit in Week 2 and held Minnesota without an offensive touchdown in Week 1. Unlike last year’s Titans, this year’s version has been in every game. And we’ve seen them rally from double digit deficits twice on the road already (at Detroit, at Houston), showing the type of character and resolve they lacked in 2015. The Titans defense has been a major surprise, allowing 20 or less in every game, particularly effective against the pass (allowing less than seven yards per attempt). Their red zone defense has been stellar, #6 in the NFL, forcing teams to settle for field goals. And their yards per play differential is far better than their record would indicate, ahead of the likes of New England, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Green Bay, just to name a few. The Titans offensive gameplan is all about generating big plays from DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the running game. Miami has allowed 130 yards per game on the ground – only the Niners, Raiders and Redskins are worse. That’s a clear matchup edge in a game that has all the makings of another ‘down to the wire’ contest. Take the Titans. |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | 27-7 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#268) My clients and I lost a big bet with the Bucs last week. That loss was frustrating, for sure, but it didn’t radically change my opinion of Tampa Bay. This week both the spot and the matchup is every bit as strong to support this ‘live’ home underdog against the ‘fat and happy’ Broncos. Let me start with the anti-Denver piece of the equation. The Broncos are as fat and happy as it gets. They faced Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton over the first three weeks of the season, holding that trio of elite QB’s to a combined 68.5 passer rating, intercepting more passes than touchdowns allowed. The Broncos played a near perfect game in Cinci last Sunday, with young QB Trevor Siemian throwing four TD passes in this ‘run first’ offense. I’m not convinced that Siemian is capable of repeating that performance, and the team around him – from all indications – isn’t primed to match their playoff level intensity from last week here. This is most assuredly a ‘circle the wagons’ game for the home underdog. The Bucs got hammered at Arizona in Week 2, a complete ‘fat and happy’ no show. Head coach Dirk Koetter: “It is a humbling league. We got humbled …. I expect and want to see fantastic resiliency. When you just look around the league, that’s sort of how the NFL is.” The Bucs came out last week and looked to be on their way to a comfortable win over LA, leading by double digits before halftime. Then Jameis Winston threw a poorly timed interception, kicker Robert Agauyo missed a key field goal and the defense gave up a handful of big plays. A fumble six TD later, the Bucs were TRAILING by double digits, a little bit shell shocked at what had just happened. That doesn’t mean that Tampa suddenly stinks. It means they played a couple of bad quarters of football last week, making mistakes that are most assuredly correctable. Expect a different gameplan from Tampa this week after Jameis Winston set career highs in passing attempts in each of the last two weeks. Dirk Koetter: "In the last two games, we've thrown too much. We've got to quit getting behind by two scores, and we need to run the ball better. As far as Jameis handling volume, heck, I'm sure he'd throw every time, if he could. But for our team to be successful, we can't be throwing in the 50s and we can't be running in the 20s." Look for that run heavy emphasis to open things up for big plays in the downfield passing game. Hungry vs. Happy. Take the Buccaneers |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -113 | 95 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#259) Three key factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, Carolina is elite. Second, Carolina is coming off a bad loss. Three, Atlanta has been feasting on the weak. Laying only a field goal on the road, the Panthers are bargain priced this week! Let me start with Item 1; Carolina is elite. I’ve seen numerous power ratings that rank the Panthers as a second tier team following their 1-2 start, ranked in the 8th to 12th best team in the league range. My power ratings have Carolina ranked #1 (at least until Tom Brady gets back on the field) and it’s not really that close. The defending NFC champs – a 15-1 team last year -- are still loaded on both sides of the football, yet they’re looking up at the Falcons in the standings. This team arguably has the best offense in the league; their defense is allowing only 4.7 yards per play - only Seattle, Denver, Minnesota and Baltimore (weak schedule) are better. The markets are selling this team short! Kelvin Benjamin caught 13 passes for 199 yards and 3 TD’s in the first two weeks of the season. In last week’s loss to the Vikings, he was held without a catch. Cam Newton, following the loss: “That can’t happen. That can’t happen. And if I’m speaking for it, that won’t happen again. He’s too good of a player.” It’s no shock that Carolina’s offense didn’t work against Minnesota – nobody’s offense works against Minnesota – just ask Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Then look what Rodgers and the Green Bay offense did the week AFTER facing the Vikings when taking a step down in defensive class against Detroit – they didn’t punt before halftime, scoring 31 points in 30 minutes. The difference between the Vikings defense (Top 5 in the NFL, by every metric) and the Falcons defense (Bottom 5 in the NFL) is enormous. Atlanta didn’t stop Jameis Winston in Week 1 or Derek Carr in Week 2, and Drew Brees marched the Saints offense up and down the field in Week 3, only punting twice all game. A hungry, motivated Cam Newton throwing to Benjamin, Greg Olson, Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn, Corey Brown and Fozzy Whitaker out of the backfield is a recipe the Falcons have no counter for. So my only legitimate question here is whether the Falcons can trade points with Carolina, because I’m pretty confident that the Panthers offense is going to put up points in bunches here. Matt Ryan is off to the best start of his career, averaging a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt with an NFL best 119.0 QB rating. But look at the three defenses he’s faced! Tampa Bay has allowed 40 and 37 points in their other two games NOT against Atlanta. New Orleans is ranked dead last in the NFL in just about every defensive category. And the categories that the Saints aren’t last in, the Raiders are! This offense has been feasting on the weak. That’s not gonna happen this week. A ‘fat and happy’ Falcons squad is primed to get their doors blown off here by a ‘thin and hungry’ Panthers team on Sunday. It’s worth noting that following their only three regular season losses since November 2014, the Panthers have bounced back with wins by 31, 28 and 19 points……….Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs -5 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tampa Bay (#480) I want Tampa off an ugly loss, like the 40-7 defeat they suffered at Arizona last Sunday. Every quote coming out of the locker room indicates max focus for the Bucs this week. Head coach Dirk Koetter: “It is a humbling league. We got humbled …. I expect and want to see fantastic resiliency. When you just look around the league, that’s sort of how the NFL is. The Cardinals had a disappointing [23-21] loss [last week], they came back and got after us pretty good [Sunday]. Look at the Rams, who we play this week. The Rams lost 28-0 on their opener to the 49ers. They come back [and get a] huge [9-3] win against Seattle [on Sunday]." Jameis Winston, following his four interception effort: “We played one of the best defenses in the league. but all those interceptions are on me." Wide receiver Cecil Shorts, talking about a bad practice session last Wednesday: “Good teams don't have bad practices ... good teams don't have many bad practices. You [have to] come in ready to go each and every day. It obviously won't be great every time, but you have to put the work in and you have to figure out a way to have a good practice. Now we have are going to put our heads[s] down and we are going to keep moving forward.” Linebacker Lavonte David: “We probably were on our high horse coming off of our first win, coming into Wednesday thinking we're big and bad -- this is a humbling league. Coming off a win and coming back to get our butts kicked 40-7 -- it's a humbling league. Hopefully we learn from that." And I want to bet against LA coming off a huge win over division rival Seattle, especially in this ‘divisional sandwich’ spot – coming off the 49ers and Seahawks, with a matchup with Arizona on deck. It’s worth noting that this will be the FIRST time that the Rams have travelled from the West Coast to play an East Coast game since moving from St Louis. I expect there to be somewhat of an adjustment process, to put it mildly. And it’s also worth noting that after beating the Seahawks three times in the last four meetings, Jeff Fisher’s squad has proceeded to lose their next game each time – blowouts at KC and Washington and a loss as favorites against the Niners last year. And make no mistake about it. Tampa is a playoff contender. LA is a ‘last place’ contender. The Rams haven’t scored an offensive TD in two weeks, and QB Case Keenum is just keeping the seat warm for #1 pick Jared Goff. Keenum is ranked #33 out of the 33 QB’s to start a game this year. The other QB’s have a rating between 121 and 72. Keenum is at 57, 15 points behind the #32 ranked QB. If (when) the Rams fall behind, they’ll have a hard time rallying back, as we saw very clearly in their loss at San Fran to open the season. Big Ticket: Take the Buccaneers |
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09-25-16 | Raiders +2 v. Titans | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#463) This is NFL handicapping 101. Tennessee is a pretty bad team coming off a huge (lucky) last minute win. The Raiders are a pretty good team coming off a bad home loss. Which team do you think is more likely to bring their ‘A’ game this week? There’s a lot of static influencing this pointspread. The markets don’t like West Coast teams travelling east for early start games, even though the Raiders won at New Orleans in Week 1 and won twice on the highway in early start games last year….including a win at Tennessee, a game where the Raiders outgained the Titans by more than 100 yards and completely shut down the Titans running game (18 carries for 44 yards). And the markets don’t like Oakland’s defensive numbers, the first team in 49 years to allow 500+ yards in back-2-back games to open the season. Make no mistake about it – the Raiders defense has plenty of talent. They’ve just run into two good offenses that were clicking, and there have been a handful of coverage breakdowns leading to big play touchdowns. Those are correctable problems, not fundamental ones. And Marcus Mariota is no Matt Ryan or Drew Brees just yet. Tennessee was a 3-13 team last year and a 2-14 team the year before; not exactly ranking among the NFL’s eite. Their win over Detroit last week was completely fraudulent. The Lions were flagged a ridiculous 17 times, stifling any momentum. The Titans won the game on a fourth down heave to Andre Johnson into double coverage that he somehow came down with. It was much more ‘Detroit bad’ than ‘Tennessee good’. The Raiders game tying touchdown against Atlanta last week was taken away on a penalty. The Falcons game winning score came on a deflected pass that fell into another receiver’s arms. This is a hungry, talented team in a step up spot, worth backing in this underdog price range. Take the Raiders. |
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09-25-16 | Browns v. Dolphins -9.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#470) My clients and I bet against the Cleveland Browns last week. The Browns scored three quick first quarter TD’s, jumping all over Baltimore. The Ravens stunk up the joint, start to finish. Yet Baltimore still won by five, covering the spread for those who bet them on gameday. That’s the 2016 Cleveland Browns. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up “There’s no mistaking what Cleveland did this past offseason. They mortgaged the present to build for the future. Every veteran that they could cut, they cut. They let all of their key free agents leave, on both sides of the ball. That trend continued in training camp – jettisoning salary, going with youth. 15 rookies made the Browns opening day roster. Cleveland was non-competitive in every preseason game, and I do mean non-competitive – their first stringers were dominated every week. The Browns had a fighting chance to be competitive in some games with RG3 behind center. Griffin won the starting job early, and got all the first team reps in August. His teammates appeared to be buying in to what RG3 was saying and doing. Now he’s out for the season.“ And the team certainly bought into backup Josh McCown, who had some success in Cleveland in a previous career stop here. But McCown, like RG, only lasted one game behind that dismal offensive line before getting hurt. Now Cleveland has to hit the highway with third string rookie QB Cody Kessler behind center. Kessler has a big arm, but he wasn’t a ‘bet-on’ QB in college at USC by any stretch of the imagination, and he looked completely lost in August; a big part of the reason why the Browns went winless in the preseason. Kessler and the Browns remain a ‘bet-against’ team at every reasonable opportunity. Coming off a game in which they blew a 20 point lead, this sure looks like a ‘reasonable’ opportunity! And this is most assuredly a ‘kill’ spot for the Dolphins. No team in the NFL faced a tougher slate to open the season: at Seattle, then at New England. Talk about a step down in class! And it’s surely worth noticing that the Dolphins finally got their offense untracked last week, scoring touchdowns on three consecutive long drives after halftime. QB Ryan Tannehill: “I saw a lot of toughness, a lot of resilience from our guys.” That’s a bet-on quote moving forward… Take the Dolphins. |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings +2.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#288) Three key factors for me. First, I don’t know that there is going to be a homefield worth more than US Bank Stadium is going to be worth on Sunday Night. In the preseason, the crowds were setting decibel records. It’s going to be louder than the Metrodome. This crowd and the crowd noise, is meaningful in a way that is not reflected in this pointspread. Second, the Vikings have the better defense. I’m not convinced it’s even close. Even against Aaron Rodgers, I’m very interested in backing the superior defense at home catching points. Especially when, as we saw last week, this defense loaded with playmakers, capable of covering pointspreads all by themselves. Third, there’s no arguing the value here. Green Bay was -3.5 or -4 at the close against Jacksonville last week, now they’re -2.5 at Minnesota? That’s a baffling market adjustment, especially considering that the Packers were life and death to win that game last week despite a handful of ridiculous big play catches that cannot be expected to be repeated here. I’m not sure that we’re going to see a +3 in this game (we might, but I don’t expect them to be widely available). That being said, I’m quite comfortable taking the +2.5 that is currently the prevailing pointspread in an era where the +/-3 seems to be worth less than ever, while +1’s and +2’s are worth more and more. Wrong team favored! Take the Vikings. |
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09-18-16 | Ravens -6.5 v. Browns | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#267) One of my top strategies for beating early season NFL is to bet against the very worst teams, before the markets recognize how weak they actually are. And the Cleveland Browns legitimately have a chance to be historically weak in 2016; a team worth fading at every reasonable opportunity. With this spread still holding at less than a touchdown, it’s worthy of Big Ticket status. There’s no mistaking what Cleveland did this past offseason. They mortgaged the present to build for the future. Every veteran that they could cut, they cut. They let all of their key free agents leave, on both sides of the ball. That trend continued in training camp – jettisoning salary, going with youth. 15 rookies made the Browns opening day roster. Cleveland was non-competitive in every preseason game, and I do mean non-competitive – their first stringers were dominated every week. My #28 ranked NFL team is the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia just blew out the Browns last week behind a rookie quarterback who missed the final three weeks of preseason with a rib injury. Joe Flacco is primed to eat this defense for breakfast; a defense that did not force a turnover last week (and won’t be forcing many this season). The Browns had a fighting chance to be competitive in some games with RG3 behind center. Griffin won the starting job early, and got all the first team reps in August. His teammates appeared to be buying in to what RG3 was saying and doing. Now he’s out for the season. The betting markets are looking at veteran backup Josh McCown and seeing no difference between him and RG3. If you’ve been paying attention to what’s been going on in Cleveland, you already know that there IS a difference – McCown is a legitimate downgrade. Don’t think for a minute that Baltimore won’t take Josh McCown seriously. He faced them twice last year, and lit them up both times (with a MUCH better receiving corps and OL than he has this year, against a MUCH weaker Ravens defense littered with injuries in 2015). Here’s what John Harbaugh had to say: “He’s been on fire against us. He’s thrown the ball up in the air and the guy catches it between his feet for a touchdown last year. I just remember this guy having no conscious, just throwing the ball in there and completing passes against us. We have a lot of respect for him.” Read between the lines there and you can see a little bit of extra enthusiasm for shutting Josh McCown down. The Ravens offense didn’t click last week, which works in our favor in two ways. First, the markets aren’t particularly enamored with a team that only reached the red zone one time (and settled for a field goal) in Week 1, keeping this spread in a very reasonable range. Second, the Ravens have something to prove here on offense, looking to take out some aggression on a divisional foe; and connect on a handful more of those big play TD’s which Mike Wallace had last week. The last ‘historically bad’ NFL team was the 2008 Detroit Lions Detroit opened the season 0-4 SU and ATS, losing every game by 13 points or more. Just sayin’…… Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6 v. Cardinals | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 102 h 8 m | Show | |
Take New England (#477) Arizona made me money last year. They made me money the year before. I’m certainly not the only bettor here in Vegas with a strong affinity for Bruce Arians; one of the many reasons why Arizona has a legitimate value problem right now. It’s surely worth noting that for all the Cards success last year, they went 3-6 ATS in nine tries as home chalk. But the Cardinals have several major red flags, in my opinion. First is that based on MY power rating numbers from the week the games were played, Arizona faced the single easiest slate of opponents in the entire NFL last year, getting to face the right teams at the right times. When you use last year’s opponents win percentage (the lazy/mainstream way), Arizona’s schedule graded out slightly below average, but not at or near the bottom. A priori, based on my analysis, the Cards come into the season as an overvalued commodity. And then there’s the Carson Palmer question. Palmer had an 82.1 QBR last year, a 104.6 QB rating, an 8.7 yards per attempt average and 35 TD passes. Every one of those stats was a career high for a 36 year old QB who played in all 16 games last year. WR Larry Fitzgerald also set career high in catches last year in his 12th season in the NFL. Frankly, there’s only one way for those numbers to trend in 2016…and it’s not up! Zona had the #1 offense in the NFL last year – more yards than the Steelers and Saints, more offensive points than the Panthers. Again, it’s hard to project ‘Zona to match or exceed those numbers, yet this pointspread is telling us very clearly that’s what the markets expect them to do. And it’s hard for me to forget Palmer throwing seven INT’s in his final three games last year, as Arizona closed out the campaign on an 0-3 ATS run. ‘Zona might have every yard and every point from last year returning on offense, but they didn’t show up for August, and I expect them to be a notch or two rusty in the opener, bad news against a Bill Belichick defense. For as much anti-Arizona sentiment as there is with this bet, there’s plenty of pro-New England fodder as well. The Patriots braintrust coaxed an 11 win season out of Matt Cassel the last time Tom Brady missed any significant time. Cassel was brilliant in New England, then nothing short of awful in every other stop in his career. That’s the Patriot advantage! While Jimmy Garappolo had an up-and-down preseason, I expect him to be effective in his NFL starting debut. The Pats don’t lose many season openers – Belichick has them ready coming out of camp. Since 2004, the Pats are 11-1 SU in season openers. And Belichick’s track record as an underdog is simply too strong to ignore. The Pats won the only game they were a dog in last year. They went 4-1 SU as a dog in 2014, the lone loss coming by less than a field goal ATS at Lambeau Field in December. In Belichick we trust. Take the Patriots. |
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09-11-16 | Lions +4 v. Colts | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#475) The Indianapolis Colts were far worse than their 8-8 record would indicate last year. They finished with a #28 offensive ranking and a #26 defensive ranking. And they ranked #31 in yards per play differential, outgained by a whopping 0.8 yards on every snap. To put that in perspective, they finished right between the hapless Browns and the hapless 49ers in that stat, yet somehow, they managed to finish at .500 by virtue of winning six of those eight games by less than a touchdown. I do believe Andrew Luck is a solid NFL quarterback. But Luck doesn’t even have an elite WR on the roster this side of undersized TY Hilton. They drafted four linemen; a unit that is most assuredly in flux following a massive barrage of preseason injuries. Luck might well have Peyton Manning’s capabilities, but he certainly doesn’t have the surrounding talent – this has NOT been a well-managed organization since Bill Polian was fired following their 2-14 debacle in 2011. While the Colts offense has holes, their defense is worse! They suffered cluster injuries on the defensive line in training camp, extremely vulnerable in the defensive trenches. It’s a similar story in a secondary that was raided in free agency, then besieged with key injuries in August, most notably shutdown CB Vontae Davis. First year, first time defensive coordinator Ted Monachino has talked about making the defense more aggressive this year. He’ll soon find out that Indy’s defensive talent isn’t quite what he had as an assistant in Baltimore. The Lions went 6-2 down the stretch last year, one Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator, and Matthew Stafford played arguably the best football of his career during that second half run. Yet without their retired marquee superstar Calvin Johnson, the markets and the pundits have devalued this capable squad. Look for Detroit’s offensive balance to give Indy’s bottom tier secondary fits in a game the Colts will be hard pressed to win , let alone winning by any sort of margin. Take the Lions. |
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09-11-16 | Bengals v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets (#460) Last year, Cinci went 12-4 SU, and were strong moneywinners in every role; 12-3-1 ATS. But there are a whole host of reasons to expect a significant decline in 2016. Let’s start with the fact that the Bengals had the third best turnover margin in the NFL last year, +11. Cinci’s defense isn’t built to force turnovers, and their best previous turnover margin in the last eight years of the Lewis era was a +4. We can and should expect regression. But the real guy we should expect regression from is the Red Rifle himself, QB Andy Dalton. Dalton is coming off thumb surgery following a season in which he had a QB rating of 106.3, 2nd in the NFL. His previous career high was 88.8. Do you think Dalton is the second best QB in the NFL? Me neither! Dalton threw at least 16 interceptions in each of his first three seasons as the starter. Last year, that dropped to only seven. To make matters worse for Dalton, he’s lost a ton of talent and brains surrounding him! Last year’s success was largely due to two factors – an elite and deep group of receivers as well as a brilliantly designed offense under coordinator Hue Jackson. Well, the deep receiving corps is gone, with Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones both getting paid like #1 WR’s in new cities. Expecting pedestrian journeyman Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd to fill those shoes is a bit much. And don’t forget that TE Tyler Eifert and his 13 TD catches last year has not recovered from offseason surgery and is not ready for opening day. Marvin Lewis has been losing key assistants. Elite offensive coordinator Hue Jackson got the Cleveland Browns head coaching gig. New offensive coordinator Ken Zampese was promoted from within, but he’s a first time coordinator with BIG shoes to fill. I’m not convinced he can do it. Three key defensive assistants left town as well, including Vance Joseph, now the defensive coordinator in Miami. The Bengals finished #2 in the NFL in points allowed last year. But the offseason hasn’t been pretty for this stop unit either. They lost their interception leader, Reggie Nelson, to the Raiders in free agency. Starting CB Leon Hall signed with the Giants. LB AJ Hawk is gone after making 11 starts last year. Valuable defensive end Wallace Gilberry left as well, as did LB Emmanuel Lamur. This team is primed for decline, plain and simple. The Jets are not. Much of the lack of betting market support for New York this past offseason stemmed from their much tougher strength of schedule in 2016; a dramatic upgrade from last year. But from a pure talent standpoint, the Jets are every bit as good as last year’s ten win team, if not better. And their brutal opening slate - -Buffalo, KC, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Arizona in their next five games, four of them on the road – only increases their sense of urgency here in Week 1. All the offseason turmoil in New York melted away as soon as respected locker room leader Ryan Fitzpatrick was re-signed at QB. Todd Bowles went 3-0 ATS as an underdog last year, including outright upsets over the Patriots and Colts. And the Jets were ready to play in Week 1, winning by three TD’s on opening day; in sharp contrast with a Cinci team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight lid-lifters under Lewis. I don’t think this line gets to +3, but even at +2.5, the Jets are worthy of a Big Ticket wager in a game I expect them to win. Big Ticket: Take the Jets |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | 18-20 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 19 m | Show | |
Take New England (#311) Road favorites in the NFL Playoffs have been a pretty good bet in recent years. We saw all four road teams win in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs just two weeks ago. There have only been two road favorites on Championship Game Weekend in the last 15 years. Following the 2012 regular season, the 49ers won and covered as road favorites in Atlanta, despite spotting the Falcons an early 17-0 lead. And following the 2004 regular season, New England beat Pittsburgh by two TD’s, winning and covering as road chalk. Recent history tells us clearly that laying chalk with road favorites in January is not a negative expectation wager. And the Patriots are road favorites here for a reason – New England is the better of these two teams. In fact, my numbers show the Patriots as the undervalued commodity here, in large part because New England’s power rating number is still factoring in what they looked like down the stretch, when Bill Belichick’s squad was an injury riddled mess. The Broncos defense is elite. Their offense is not. Against a mediocre Steelers defense last week, the Broncos started three of their first five drives in Steelers territory. They came away with six points on two field goals. In fact, only two drives all day gained more than 40 yards, fairly typical of recent Denver efforts both with and without Manning behind center. The January 2016 version of Peyton Manning is a long, long way from Manning in his prime. He enters the AFC Championship Game with a 1-8 TD-INT ratio at home this year, including the postseason, and that’s no misprint – just ONE single TD pass at home all year! Manning didn’t have much in his return to the starting lineup last week, gaining just 5.7 yards per pass attempt. A relatively healthy Patriots secondary is primed to shut this passing game down. And the Broncos running game behind their mediocre (at best) offensive line isn’t capable of controlling the flow either. CJ Anderson broke one 34 yard run last week against the Steelers. The other 30 carries from their backs netted 76 yards, barely 2.5 yards per carry. The Patriots defense should have both Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins back on the field this week; as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time. Facing a Broncos offense that has produced a grand total of two touchdowns in their last two playoff games (Colts last year and Steelers this year), I’m expecting the Pats stop unit to have the upper hand. Denver’s defense is the reason this game is being played in the Mile High air, not in Foxboro. When the Patriots visited here in Week 12, they led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before a muffed punt led to a late Broncos rally and eventual win in overtime. But Denver’s defense was dominant when it mattered most, forcing four punts while allowing only a single field goal on the Patriots last five drives. Of course, the Patriots didn’t have Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola for that game, and Rob Gronkowski was carted off the field. That receiving trio is healthy and back on the field for the Pats now, and they combined for 19 catches, 201 yards and a pair of TD’s last week against the Chiefs elite stop unit. In a game featuring the potential for a wintry weather mix, I want the proven cold weather quarterback (Brady) against the proven playoff underachiever (Manning) in what could (should!!) be his final NFL game. Take the Patriots. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England (#302) The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL, riding an eleven game winning streak into Foxboro on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Patriots slumped down the stretch, losing two straight (with a chance to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs) and four of their last six. That’s giving us an extremely cheap pointspread to back the superior team, rested and ready at home on Saturday; a wager worthy of Big Ticket status. These two teams played on Monday Night Football in Arrowhead last year, one of the ugliest losses of the entire Bill Belichick era for New England. KC mauled the Patriots on both sides of the line of scrimmage in a dominating 41-14 victory, gaining more than 200 yards on the ground and through the air. Tom Brady threw a pair of interceptions before getting benched in the fourth quarter, while Alex Smith picked apart the Patriots secondary to the tune of 20-26 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. That game transformed the Patriots trajectory. The Pats didn’t allow 200 rushing yards in any game the rest of the way, while winning 13 of their last 14 meaningful games on their way to a Super Bowl title. And it’s a loss they still remember well, as evidenced by numerous quotes from coaches and players in the locker room over the last few days. The Pats are offering the appropriate platitudes, but their focus level for this particular opponent on this particular week is ‘off the charts’ good. Before I go any further, there’s a question that must be asked. How good have the Chiefs actually been during this 11-0 run? Good enough to beat the weak, that’s for sure! During this run the Chiefs have faced one bottom feeder after the next. Their last seven regular season games came against the Chargers (twice), the Raiders (twice), Cleveland, Baltimore and Buffalo. They’ve beaten Brian Hoyer, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel and Jimmy Clausen over the last month. That’s not exactly a tough slate of opposing teams or opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs have three wins since opening day against playoff opponents. One came against Pittsburgh with third string QB Landry Jones behind center for the Steelers. One came against Denver, in the game where Peyton Manning threw four early interceptions and then was benched for the next two months due to injury. The third came against Houston last week with Brian Hoyer making his first career playoff start behind a depleted offensive line. There’s not one team that the Chiefs have beaten during this entire winning streak that’s even remotely comparable to a rested, focused Patriots squad coming off a bye and playing at home in January. Things get even worse for KC when we start to look at the injury situation for both squads. KC’s defensive line is banged up. Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dee Ford are all less than 100% heading into their second straight road playoff game. The Chiefs top deep threat, WR Jeremy Maclin, suffered a high ankle sprain in the win over Houston. Even if Maclin suits up in Foxboro, he’s not likely to be his explosive self. KC also lost starting offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to a concussion, joining starting center Mitch Morse in concussion protocol moving forward. If that duo doesn’t suit up this weekend, it’ll be a major loss for the Chiefs offense. While KC is battling injuries, the Patriots are getting much healthier. New England will get back WR Julian Edelman following a nine week absence; a huge difference maker for Tom Brady. LB Donta’ Hightower is expected to suit up, as is elite offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer. All three guys are what I would call ‘impact players’, and their return to the field makes the Pats a better team than the one we saw losing to the Jets and Dolphins over the final two weeks of the regular season. But the real kicker here is the turnover situation. Facing one weakling after the next, the Chiefs have gone a remarkable +22 in turnovers during their eleven game winning streak. But the Patriots don’t turn the ball over; committing an NFL low 14 turnovers all season. In the four games this season where KC didn’t win the turnover battle, they went 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS, and this is not a game where they can be expected to win that battle. KC might be the ‘Flavor of the Week’ for pundits and talking heads on TV; but the Pats are the class in this matchup! Big Ticket: Take the Patriots. |
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01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins -1 | Top | 35-18 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NFL Playoff Game of the Year: Take Washington (#108) In Week 16, my clients and I cashed in betting on Arizona against Green Bay, a 38-8 blowout that was every bit as non-competitive as the final score would indicate. In Week 17, my clients and I cashed a Big Ticket betting against these same Packers. Minnesota’s M.O. all year was that they were good enough to beat bad teams, but not good enough to beat any good ones. And the Vikings were awful --particularly on offense -- for extended stretches against the Packers on Sunday Night. They turned the ball over during crunch time and made mistake after mistake with the game on the line. It didn’t matter – Green Bay still wasn’t good enough to beat them, at home. Let’s not forget that the Vikings only previous win all year against an opponent with a winning record came against the Chiefs – when KC was off to a 1-5 start. The fact that they knocked off Green Bay in a pressure packed game at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night speaks volumes about where the Packers are right now. The betting markets are looking at Green Bay as a composite of their full season results/stats, as well as their historical success in recent playoff appearances – ‘proven playoff performers’. And the betting markets are thoroughly devaluing a Redskins team that only faced two playoff teams all year – New England and Carolina – suffering blowout losses in both of those games. The Packers are the ‘class’; the Redskins the ‘upstarts’. That’s why this pointspread is hovering in the pick ‘em/-1 range. I think that’s a major mistake. BOTH of these teams are being power rated incorrectly, offering TREMENDOUS value with the ‘Skins in a game that I expect them to win. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. This is not a confident team; a well-oiled machine. Green Bay is 4-6 SU in their last ten games. And even the four wins aren’t impressive. They were badly outplayed by the Lions, needing a miracle penalty followed by a miracle Hail Mary to steal that victory. They got Dallas one week after the Cowboys had lost Tony Romo again, a downtrodden team at the tail end of a disappointing campaign. Their ten point win at Oakland was completely fraudulent. Green Bay gained only 4.2 yards per play in that contest; yet another game where their running game didn’t work and where Aaron Rodgers didn’t have open receivers to throw to downfield. The Packers scored only one touchdown in five red zone tries against an iffy Raiders defense. Green Bay’s only legitimately ‘good’ game since Week 6 came when they beat the aforementioned Vikings; a team that struggled mightily to step up in class all year. If you throw out those early season stats, when the Packers were relatively healthy and playing at a very different level than they are now, you’ll see a team that has been consistently outgained and outplayed for the better part of the last three months! It gets worse. We’ve seen the Packers lose multiple games this year because their subpar receiving corps couldn’t get open in the red zone late in the game. That happened in the loss to the Bears on Thanksgiving and in the loss to Minnesota on Sunday Night. Both times, they had four shots at the end zone from a late game ‘goal-to-go’ situation. Both times, Aaron Rodgers couldn’t find an open receiver on play after play. Rodgers season long stats show an impressive 31-8 TD-INT ratio. They’ll also show his 6.7 yards per pass attempt average, ranked #30 out of NFL QB’s this season and the only time in his entire career that he’s dipped below 7.5 ypp. Last year, he averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. Green Bay has already switched play callers. They’ve already tried to establish their running game to set up the pass. None of it has worked, a team mired in a real offensive funk. Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy are not on the same page when it comes to the gameplanning or the playcalling, each taking veiled shots at the other through the media. Both have complained that the team lacks an ‘identity’ on offense, thanks to all the shifting gameplans. And with Green Bay’s offensive line in shambles due to injuries – Rodgers has taken 13 sacks in the last two weeks alone – things aren’t likely to get any better before their season mercifully ends on Sunday Night in DC. Green Bay is still being priced like an elite contender – the Aaron Rodgers factor, coupled with their overall 10-6 record. But the Packers are a long, long way from ‘elite’ status right now. The exact opposite is true for the Redskins. Yes, Washington’s season long numbers are mediocre at best. Yes, their pass defense is spotty at times. Yes, they’ve failed to beat a single playoff team all year (although there’s no shame in losing to the Pats and Panthers, both on the road, and both when those teams were absolutely clicking on all cylinders). A month ago, after losing to Dallas on Monday Night Football, this team was in position to finish in last place, not first. But, like Green Bay, Washington’s full season stats are very misleading, because they factor in early season results that have very little to do with who the Redskins are today. Washington has now won five of their last six, the lone loss coming via a last second field goal. Every quote coming out of the Redskins locker room talks about how this team has come together, how they like each other, how much better they are now than they were three months ago. These guys like each other; playing hard for each other. Multiple PLAYER quotes that I’ve read over the last month are using the same word over and over: a ‘special’ team, a ‘special’ group. Kirk Cousins finished the regular season ranked #6 in QBR, well ahead of #15 Aaron Rodgers. Washington has the three most dangerous receivers on the field in this matchup, with DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon. Cousins put together a 19-2 TD-INT ratio over the back half of the season. This offense has hung 34+ in three straight games, and they’re entering the postseason oozing confidence on a field where they went 6-2 SU and ATS this year; one of those losses coming on a punt return TD on opening day. Washington is the superior team –period. The markets are giving us a ‘bargain basement price’ to support them, worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take the Redskins. |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 57 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#106) Pittsburgh has the flashy offense. Pittsburgh has the Super Bowl rings, and the recent playoff success. We all know that the Bengals have been abject failures when it comes to the postseason; 0-6 SU and ATS in the playoffs during the Marvin Lewis era. Cinci has the QB making his first playoff start. It’s fully understandable why the Steelers are road favorites in this ballgame. But my numbers don’t allow room for debate. They show that Cincinnati is the better of these two teams; not a team that should be a home underdog on Wild Card weekend. Throw in the fact that AJ McCarron doesn’t have that ‘playoff loser’ stigma that has affected Andy Dalton in recent seasons and the Bengals are a clear choice for this bettor now that +3’s are widely available. Make no mistake about it. When you grade out the Bengals personnel on both sides of the football, they’re better than Pittsburgh. Cinci has the superior offensive line. They’re far better at running back now that the Steelers could be down to Fitz Toussaint and his 24 career carries. Defensively, there’s no comparison at all, with Cinci enjoying personnel edges on all three units – the superior line, the superior linebacking corps and the vastly superior secondary. Andy Dalton is still hurt, something the markets are viewing as a negative. Not this bettor! I don’t want a banged up longtime NFL loser with a propensity for poor decision making, regardless of how good his regular season stats were. AJ McCarron isn’t short on big game experience, a guy who won two national titles in college with Alabama. He’s got a QB rating of 97.1 since taking over for the injured Dalton; a better QBR than the likes of Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. All the quotes coming out of the Cincinnati locker room have been EXTREMELY positive in support of McCarron – his teammates legitimately believe in his ability to get them over the hump. Therefore, so do I. And for all the love that the mainstream media gives Pittsburgh, let’s not forget one thing – the Steelers last playoff win came in the 2010 AFC Championship Game against Mark Sanchez and the Jets. In their last two playoff appearances, they’ve lost SU as favorites against Tim Tebow and the Broncos, and SU as favorites against Joe Flacco and the Ravens; routinely overvalued during playoff time. And there’s no comparison between the Steelers defense and the Bengals D. Cinci has better numbers on a yards-per play basis against the run AND the pass. Pittsburgh has lived off of turnovers, but they rank #26 in the NFL at forcing punts and at forcing three-and-outs. Their secondary is undersized and has shown extreme vulnerability to big plays; bad news considering McCarron’s surprisingly good stats when throwing the deep ball. Pittsburgh might be the ‘flavor of the week’ this week, but the team that couldn’t beat Baltimore on the road in Week 16 is going to be hard pressed to beat Cinci on the road as the playoffs begin. I’m taking +3 in order to get the push if need be, but a nearly half of my personal wager is on the Bengals to win SU on the moneyline. Take the Bengals. |
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01-03-16 | Vikings +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota (#325) The Minnesota Vikings have lost every single ‘step up in class’ game they’ve played all year. Their only wins against an opponent with a winning record came against the Chiefs – when KC was off to a 1-5 start – and the Falcons, when Atlanta was in the midst of their 1-8 midseason slide. That being said, Green Bay is no ‘step-up’ in class for Minnesota right now. In fact, the Packers might be a step down in class…. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up betting against Green Bay in their blowout loss at Arizona last week. “Meanwhile, the Packers remain an OVERVALUED commodity following their fraudulent win and cover at Oakland last Sunday. Green Bay gained only 4.2 yards per play in that contest; yet another contest where their running game didn’t work and where Aaron Rodgers didn’t have open receivers to throw to downfield. The Packers scored only one touchdown in five red zone tries, and that’s not likely to get much better here with key offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Sam Shields both banged up. This team has a grand total of one win since Week 3 against an opponent with a winning record.” The Packers gained 2.9 yards per play in that loss at Arizona. Aaron Rodgers took nine sacks. Rodgers injury depleted offensive line isn’t going to get much better this week, with all five starters nursing injuries. That’s bad news for a team that hasn’t been able to run the football consistently at any point this season. And it’s particularly bad news given the Packers depleted receiving corps; WR’s that just can’t get open against stronger secondaries. Head coach Mike McCarthy has quite a wish list this week, after taking heat for his play calling in the loss to Arizona: “We’ve got to get open quicker, we’ve got to beat man-to-man coverage, we’ve got to quit worrying about plays (called). We just need to focus on execution.” Minnesota’s defense is every bit as good or better than that of the Cardinals; a dominant unit poised to make amends for their poor performance when these two teams met in November. But the real improvement from the Vikings during their current 3-0 ATS run since their ugly home loss to Seattle has been on the offensive side of the football. Teddy Bridgewater is growing up before our eyes, throwing for six TD’s without an interception in the last three games, while completing better than 70% of his passes. Adrian Peterson is on the verge of another rushing title, showing remarkable explosiveness from an RB on the wrong side of 30. The Vikes have scored 87 points in their last two games alone, peaking while the Packers are collapsing. Minnesota is the better team right now, plain and simple. Catching more than a field goal with Mike Zimmer’s squad is a play truly worthy of Big Ticket status; a line based more on past reputation than current reality. Big Ticket: Take Minnesota. |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#315) Don’t be fooled for a minute by the 34-20 final score when these two teams met in Week 13; just about a month ago. The Raiders led by six in the fourth quarter and they were in field goal range. Then QB Derek Carr played arguably his worst quarter of football in his NFL career, turning the ball over on three consecutive possessions, leading to three late KC touchdowns. It was a tough, frustrating loss for Oakland and they remember it well. The Chiefs have been pretty good in recent seasons, the Raiders pretty bad. Yet in this competitive rivalry, Oakland has played even with Kansas City: 5-5 SU in the last ten meetings. In the last eight seasons, KC has swept Oakland only once. For a ‘meaningless’ Week 17 finale, this game means more to Oakland than most teams, especially now that they have some continuity – Jack Del Rio is coming back. The Raiders have had some ugly Week 17 road losses in recent years, like their 47-14 no-show at Denver last year. I do NOT expect that type of effort here - -not this year, with this team and this coach. Andy Reid is going to start his starters, hence this line holding at a full TD. But don’t be shocked if some of the Chiefs top tier talent stays on the bench after halftime – they’ve got to be ready to play a road playoff game next week. The Chiefs aren’t a team built to win by margins, as we saw once again last week against Cleveland – they build a lead and then they sit on it, not a squad poised to extend their margin. And key defenders Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Husain Abdullah aren’t likely to play for long if they suit up at all, leaving the real potential for a backdoor cover if the Raiders don’t control the flow early. Expect a competitive contest. Take the Raiders. |
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01-03-16 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | 16-19 | Loss | -100 | 78 h 10 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#329) The Rams are coming to play. San Fran? Even if they do show up, I’m not convinced it’s going to matter one iota. The Rams have won three straight games, covering the spread by 35 points in the process; wildly undervalued in recent weeks. Last week’s outright upset at Seattle gives them a chance to finish at .500 and to finish with a 5-1 record in division; two goals that actually matter for Jeff Fisher and his squad. Fisher did something smart in his gameplanning for this contest. He kept his team out West, saving them ten hours of flight time and ensuring strong focus for practices this week in Napa Valley. Fisher’s quote: “This has been really good. We’ve cut way back on the travel time and we’ve got great accommodations. Meeting spaces are good, game plan is in. We had a really good Wednesday.” The Rams turnaround began when Rob Boras was promoted to offensive coordinator. Boras: “It’s great being here. The guys have bought into it. We’ve kind of talked about it as our bowl trip, and the guys are all in their sweats just like when you’re in college going to bowl games. The energy and enthusiasm has been great in the meetings, and then for them to come out here and have a practice like they did, I thought, was really good.” QB Case Keenum has arguably played the best football of his career over the last few weeks, averaging nearly 7.5 yards per pass, showing good timing with his receivers. Keenum: “During preseason, you kind of rep with everybody. I’ve thrown to these guys a bunch. But it’s coming together. We’re getting used to the plays Rob likes to call, and kind of getting where everybody’s on the same page with that. And just executing.” And the Rams defense has been the most dominant unit on the field during their current three game winning streak; a strong defensive front and a pair of top notch cornerbacks shutting everybody down. That’s particularly bad news for the 49ers offense; a unit that has reached 21 points a grand total of three times ALL YEAR! It’s surely worth noting that all three of those games came against bottom tier defenses. This season has been a complete disaster for San Fran, and they’re ready it to mercifully come to an end. Head coach Jim Tomsula is going to have a very hard time coaxing effort out of his squad this week, very similar to the last time these two teams met, back in early November. The Rams barely broke a sweat, winning by three TD’s. A similar margin here would be no surprise to this bettor; two teams bringing very different levels of mentality and energy into their season finale. Take the Rams. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -4.5 | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#126) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Arizona in their blowout victory at Philadelphia last Sunday. And there’s little reason to think the Cards aren’t primed to deliver the goods in another ‘step-up-in-class’ contest at home against the Packers this week. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “After beating the Vikings (but not covering) on Thursday Night, head coach Bruce Arians gave his team the weekend off; a real rarity at this stage of the campaign. For a team that has stayed fairly healthy all year, the extra rest time can only be considered a major benefit here. The Cardinals have been consistent moneywinners in each of Arians first three years on the job. And Arizona’s statistical profile is elite, with an NFL best +1.0 yards per play average for the season. Carson Palmer is enjoying an MVP caliber season, and head coach Bruce Arians isn’t shy about airing it out, leading to a bevy of quick strike, big play TD’s; real momentum killers for their opponent. ‘Zona’s big play capability gives them a real chance to extend the lead or to rally from behind, should they need to! We’re getting excellent value here with the Cardinals as well, despite a pointspread that has held at -4.5 all week (leading indicator books are showing the potential that it could drop to -4 or lower on Sunday before kickoff; worth watching for).” There are two additional key factors putting me on Arizona here. First and foremost, this 12-2 Cardinals team is STILL an undervalued commodity! The Cardinals are 25-4 SU with Carson Palmer behind center. They rank in the top three in the NFL in points scored, total yards and passing yards. Rookie RB David Johnson is on a roll; their receiving corps is loaded and the Cards offensive line is dominating up front. Even after the loss of the Honey Badger on defense, Arizona’s tight man-to-man press coverage on defense is primed to give the Packers weak receiving corps fits. And the Cards still have plenty to play for here, looking to clinch a first round bye and rest starters against the Seahawks in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Packers remain an OVERVALUED commodity following their fraudulent win and cover at Oakland last Sunday. Green Bay gained only 4.2 yards per play in that contest; yet another contest where their running game didn’t work and where Aaron Rodgers didn’t have open receivers to throw to downfield. The Packers scored only one touchdown in five red zone tries, and that’s not likely to get much better here with key offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Sam Shields both banged up. This team has a grand total of one win since Week 3 against an opponent with a winning record. A long trip out West for the second consecutive week isn’t the ideal recipe for the Pack to notch a rare upset here. Take the Cardinals. |
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12-27-15 | Patriots v. Jets +3.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
Take the New York Jets (#122) There haven’t been any blowouts in this series on any field since 2012. The last five meetings have been decided by 3, 3 (in OT), 2, 1 and 7 points. This is the best team the Jets have fielded at any point during this three year span, arguably by a wide margin. And this might be the weakest Patriots team that New England has fielded during that same span. Put those factors together and you can see why New York plus the points is a clear choice for this bettor. The mainstream media is harping on the fact that New England “needs” this game to lock up the #1 seed and rest their banged up starters in Week 17. The Jets ‘need’ the win every bit as much, locked in a tight battle with KC and Pittsburgh for the two AFC Wild Card playoff berths. In fact, right now, the 9-5 Jets rank behind both the Steelers and the Chiefs in all the tiebreakers. A loss here probably dooms their chances. The Jets are coming to play on Sunday, and their ‘A” game is good enough to beat the Pats. New England has been riddled with injuries for the better part of the last two months, and things are getting worse, not better, for Bill Belichick’s squad down the stretch. Three more starters went down last week. LB Donta Hightower, safety Patrick Chung and WR Danny Amendola all got hurt in the win over hapless Tennessee. For a lineup that is already missing numerous key components on both sides of the football, the latest rash of injuries has Belichick very concerned: When asked about resting injured players this week, here’s what Belichick said: “I think we just probably do the best we can to manage all those things that you talked about. They are all somewhat of a consideration and we've just got to try to balance it out. I think each part requires some thought and every decision impacts other things as well, so you just can't act independently when one thing happens when there is a residual effect to it one way or another as part of the conversation. We'll just have to do the best that we can to balance all those things out. That's something we'll have to give some thought to and get as much information as possible because there are some guys that are in various states of physical health. We'll have to work our way through all that. It's definitely a challenging situation. I wish I had a cleaner answer on it, but really we're just going to have to work it out." The Jets have a handful of injuries too, but nothing even close to the rash of key players that the Patriots have lost. In fact, when it comes to skill position talent, right now the Jets are as healthy as they’ve been all year, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory all at or near 100%. The Jets have had an extra day of rest/prep time after gutting out a win in Dallas last Saturday and they’ve been dominant on this field, notching four wins here in Jersey by two TD’s or more. Take the points – the possibility of a push at +3 is meaningful – but be sure to have at least a taste of the Jets on the moneyline in your pocket! Take the Jets. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#317) Arizona is sitting at 11-2, but the Cardinals haven’t clinched ANYTHING meaningful yet, other than assuring themselves of a playoff spot – not their division, not a first round bye. They play Green Bay and Seattle in Week 16 and 17 – no team in the league faces two tougher closeout games. To say that this is a VERY important game for the superior team is something of an understatement, even though Chip Kelly’s squad is facing another ‘must win’ game in the race for the dismal NFC East title. And that’s why this scheduling situation is so key for the Cardinals this week. After beating the Vikings (but not covering) on Thursday Night, head coach Bruce Arians gave his team the weekend off; a real rarity at this stage of the campaign. For a team that has stayed fairly healthy all year, the extra rest time can only be considered a major benefit here for the road favorite. Teams that don’t face the Eagles very often are at a real disadvantage trying to prep for Chip Kelly’s uptempo attack on a normal week. Their four non-divisional wins this year – the Jets, Saints, Pats and Bills – all came against teams that had yet to face the Eagles in a regular season game during the Chip Kelly era. But Arizona beat Philly last year and they faced Philly here in Philadelphia the previous season as well. For a non-divisional opponent, the Cardinals know the Eagles extremely well and familiarity in this case is a very good thing! The Cardinals already have five road wins by six points or more, three of them coming by two TD’s or more; consistently playing good football in hostile road environments. They’ve been consistent moneywinners in each of Arians first three years on the job. Arizona’s statistical profile is elite, with an NFL best +1.1 yards per play average for the season. Carson Palmer is enjoying an MVP caliber season, and Arians isn’t shy about airing it out, leading to a bevy of quick strike, big play TD’s; real momentum killers for their opponent. Given Philly’s struggles against the deep ball this year, ‘Zona’s big play capability gives them a real chance to extend the lead or to rally from behind, should they need to! We’re getting excellent value here with the Cardinals as well, despite a pointspread that has held at -3.5 all week (it could drop to -3 on Sunday before kickoff; worth watching for). ‘Zona has only covered one pointspread in the last month, taking much of the ‘steam’ off them following their early season ATS success. Meanwhile, Philly is a good notch or two overvalued after beating the Patriots and Bills in their last two games; both fraudulent victories. Philly was badly outplayed at New England, but scored on a blocked punt TD, a punt return TD and a 99 yard interception return TD. That turned what should have been a double digit loss into a SU and ATS victory. The Eagles offense gained only 4.3 yards per play, managing only 248 total yards compared to 427 for the Pats. Last week’s win was just as fraudulent. The Bills got whistled for a whopping 15 penalties, killing their momentum again and again. The Eagles were out-yarded by 1.2 yards per play, outgained on the ground and through the air. They blew a double digit second half lead, but managed one late drive for the game winning field goal, despite another mediocre effort from Sam Bradford behind center. Arizona is the contender here, while Philly is the overvalued pretender. The extra time off and ‘Zona’s familiarity (and success) against Kelly’s schemes make the Cardinals worthy of a Big Ticket wager on Sunday Night. Take the Cardinals. |
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12-20-15 | Dolphins v. Chargers -1.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 43 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#326) Straight fade of Miami here. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. And while San Diego isn’t good enough to merit a Big Ticket sized wager against the Dolphins this week, Miami remains a STRONG bet-against, especially when we consider that they are travelling across the country on a short week for a meaningless game. Here’s an excerpt from my anti-Dolphins write-up from last week. “The Miami Dolphins have been in free-fall for the better part of the last two months. Yes, Miami is coming off a win, knocking off Baltimore last week. It wasn’t pretty. Miami got a TD on a pick six from Matt Schaub, something Schaub seems to do on a weekly basis. Their other TD came on a one play drive; a 38 yard TD pass following another Schaub interception. On the Dolphins remaining drives, they had eight punts and a fumble. “This might not be a huge deal on a normal week. But last week wasn’t a normal week for Miami. Interim head coach Dan Campbell fired his former boss, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. QB Ryan Tannehill then spent the entire week talking about how much he loved the new, simplified offense that gave him much more latitude calling audibles. Tannehill then proceeded to go 9-19 for 86 yards. The Dolphins offense gained eight first downs all day, outgained by more than 150 yards by one of the very worst offenses in the NFL. “That wasn’t the only fraudulent Dolphins win of late. Their only other victory in the last seven games – since that initial 2-0 outburst after Joe Philbin got fired – came at Philly when the Eagles were slumping. The Dolphins managed to win that game only because a deflected pass turned into a TD catch AND Mark Sanchez threw an interception in the end zone in a position where a field goal would have won the game, a truly horrific decision from a bottom tier QB. It’s surely worth noting that Philly had 29 first downs compared to only 15 for Miami in that game, and the Eagles outgained the ‘Fins by just shy of 150 yards! “ Those two wins are the only things separating the Dolphins from an 0-8 SU run, a run that would insure the Chargers would be -3 or higher here. Instead, we’re laying less than a field goal with San Diego against a Dolphins team that once again couldn’t get out of their own way in a ‘season ending’ loss on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins pass defense forgot to show up, allowing Eli Manning to throw as many TD’s (four) as incomplete passes (also four) without a sack or an interception. And while the Miam offense produced a handful of big plays, with the game on the line in the fourth quarter it was four possessions and four punts, fairly typical for this squad. San Diego has been riddled with injuries, a shell of the team they were supposed to be. But we can expect a big effort in what could be their last ever game at Qualcomm Stadium. All the postgame comments last week, despite their loss at KC in the rain, were positive ones. Head coach Mike McCoy: “They just kept on fighting to the very last play there. This team has a lot of fight in them. I'm proud of them for that. But this is about winning." As long as they bring that same level of fighting spirit here – and from all indications they will – that should be more than enough to get this team the SU win (and the pointspread cover) against a ‘fade-only’ Dolphins squad. Take the Chargers. |
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12-20-15 | Bengals -6 v. 49ers | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 53 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#329) My clients and I made money when Peyton Manning was benched in favor of Brock Osweiler in Denver, taking advantage of a betting market overreaction to the injury. We made money with Matt Cassel replacing Tony Romo in Dallas when Dallas knocked off Washington on Monday Night two weeks ago, and when they covered against the Seahawks earlier in the season. And I expect to make money in this game, with AJ McCarron primed to enjoy immediate success in his first game as an NFL starting quarterback, replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton had a 106.3 QB rating when he got hurt, well above his previous career best of 88.8. He’d thrown a career low seven interceptions and averaged a career high 8.4 yards per attempt, spreading the ball around to Cinci’s bevy of skill position weapons. It’s an impact injury, for sure…..but only in theory! Former Alabama QB McCarron got his first meaningful NFL action following the Dalton injury. McCarron didn’t settle for dinks and dunks, taking his fair share of shots down the field, throwing for 288 yards, while connecting on completions of 20 yards or more with four different receivers. McCarron looked fairly poised in the pocket despite a difficult situation – trying to come from behind, using a one dimensional pass heavy attack – although he did throw a pair of interceptions. And his post-game quotes were encouraging. "You have to embrace [the situation]. I love it. You have to love pressured moments. That's where the great ones really shine. I guess Tom Brady was in the same situation when he had the opportunity. I've got to make the most of it and do my job each week. I know we have an unbelievable defense and if we don't turn the ball over, we have a great chance…..I stepped in, and I have to play better. I'm going to play better. I promise you that." It wasn’t just McCarron with the positive quotes. Offensive tackle Andre Whitworth: “He's played at the University of Alabama and won as many games he's won (36-4 as a starter, including two national titles), I don't think there's a moment ever too big for him.” WR AJ Green: “I think AJ's going to do well. He gets a week under his belt; we get to practice with him -- I think we'll be fine. He's a winner. He went to Alabama, so he's used to the big stage, and I think he'll be ready.” CB Pacman Jones: “The guy's a winner. The only thing you can say about him is that he's a winner. He prepares pretty well to give us great looks in practice. I'm eager to see what he can do with a full week of (offensive coordinator) Hue (Jackson) behind him.” WR Marvin Jones: “We trust that AJ is going to come in and do what he has to do. We'll be all right. He's a playmaker. He's a natural leader.” Those are ‘bet-on’ quotes, plain and simple, from an elite team coming off a rare loss. In three previous ‘step-up’ home games, the 49ers have been outscored 56-19 against the Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals. San Fran lost by two TD’s at Cleveland last week, and a similar result here would be no surprise to this bettor! Take the Bengals. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs +2.5 v. Rams | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#301) The Bucs probably lost out on any realistic shot of making the playoffs with their home loss to New Orleans last week. But they’re saying the right things as they approach this short week trip to St Louis. WR Mike Evans: “What better way? We (have) four days….We’re ready to redeem ourselves.” Tampa already has SU wins as a road underdog at New Orleans, Atlanta and Philly, as well as a wire-to-wire spread cover in a one point loss at Washington. And the Bucs should match up very well with St Louis, thanks to their strong run defense. Tampa ranks #2 in the NFL (behind only Denver) against the run, holding foes to 3.4 yards per carry for the season. They’ve been particularly good at avoiding big gainers against them, allowing only three running plays of more than 20 yards all season! Head coach Lovie Smith: “We like playing a Thursday night game. We’re excited about the new uniforms and all of that. And, again, we need to play quickly, and Thursday night allows us to do that. We’re (in) the only (game) that’s playing at the time, and we want to show people we’ve improved, that we’re not the same old Bucs or any of that. And as we go to that next stage, which we will eventually get to, we’re going to have a lot of these primetime games. So, yeah, this is a big deal to us.’’ At the midway point of the season, the Rams had the look of a team poised to make a second half run towards a playoff spot. They started 4-3. Todd Gurley looked like a pro bowler at running back, gaining 146, 159, 128 and 133 yards on the ground over a span in which the Rams won three out of four. Their defense – particularly up front at the line of scrimmage – was dominant, capable of shutting down the likes of Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Some pundits were even touting Jeff Fisher’s squad as a potential Super Bowl contender, with wins over the likes of Seattle and Arizona in early season play. That was then. This is now. St Louis is 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS since back-to-back wins over the Browns and 49ers to close out October and open up November, the lone win coming last week against the mistake prone Lions. This team has scored more than 13 points only once in their last five games, and they’ve been outyarded in each and every one of those games, by an AVERAGE of more than 130 yards per contest. These types of defeats aren’t coming by accident. Yes, the Rams generated two offensive touchdowns last week; both coming in the second half against a worn down Lions defense. But make no mistake about it – the St Louis offense is a train wreck these days, besieged with key injuries on the offensive line. Backup QB Case Keenum has thrown for 136 and 124 yards in his two starts, not exactly lighting up opposing defenses. In fact, Keenum got Gary Kubiak fired from his job as the head coach of the Texans in his last starting gig, and he could easily do the same thing here for Jeff Fisher. This team has only eight TD passes all year, without consistent weapons for their bad quarterbacks to throw to. Gurley had a breakout game last week, but it’s surely worth noting that he had been held to 66 rushing yards or less in each of his previous four games and he suffered a knee injury last week. The Rams are probably going to move to LA this offseason, with ownership pushing in that direction. That means this could be their ‘last ever’ home game at the Edward Jones Dome. Let’s not forget that St Louis has suffered more than their fair share of non-competitive losses on this field, including recent defeats: 37-13 to the Bears and 27-3 to the Cardinals. I’m not convinced that the last home game is going to bring out the best for St Louis, but the betting markets have been driving this line up from an opener of pick ‘em to the current ‘Rams -2.5’ pointspread. Take the Buccaneers. |
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12-14-15 | Giants -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York Giants (#133) The Miami Dolphins have been in free-fall for the better part of the last two months. Yes, Miami is coming off a win, knocking off Baltimore last week. It wasn’t pretty. Miami got a TD on a pick six from Matt Schaub, something Schaub seems to do on a weekly basis. Their other TD came on a one play drive; a 38 yard TD pass following another Schaub interception. On the Dolphins remaining drives, they had eight punts and a fumble. This might not be a huge deal on a normal week. But last week wasn’t a normal week for Miami. Interim head coach Dan Campbell fired his former boss, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. QB Ryan Tannehill then spent the entire week talking about how much he loved the new, simplified offense that gave him much more latitude calling audibles. Tannehill then proceeded to go 9-19 for 86 yards. The Dolphins offense gained eight first downs all day, outgained by more than 150 yards by one of the very worst offenses in the NFL. That wasn’t the only fraudulent Dolphins win of late. Their only other victory in the last seven games – since that initial 2-0 outburst after Joe Philbin got fired – came at Philly when the Eagles were slumping. The Dolphins managed to win that game only because a deflected pass turned into a TD catch AND Mark Sanchez threw an interception in the end zone in a position where a field goal would have won the game, a truly horrific decision from a bottom tier QB. It’s surely worth noting that Philly had 29 first downs compared to only 15 for Miami in that game, and the Eagles outgained the ‘Fins by just shy of 150 yards! Those two wins are the only things separating the Dolphins from an 0-7 SU run. And those wins have, in theory, kept Miami alive enough in the playoff picture to price them competitively right here. Had the Dolphins entered this game on an 0-7 run, the Giants would surely be laying more than a field goal here. It’s surely worth noting that this is Miami’s first and only sellout of the year….in large part because all the Giants fans living in south Florida have been gobbling up the extra tickets. While it’s Miami’s home field (where they’ve lost by double digits to the Bills, Jets and Cowboys already this year), this is much more like a neutral site crowd. Miami isn’t the only team with misleading results. The Giants have blown a bevy of fourth quarter leads this year; a team that could easily be 9-3 or 10-2 right now, instead of 5-7. The G-men suffered a brutal loss in OT against the Jets last week, their third straight defeat (and sixth loss of the year) by less than a touchdown. Sure, clock management has been an issue, as has some dicey Eli Manning decision making. But the bottom line for this bettor is that the Giants are better than their record would indicate, while the Dolphins are worse. The Giants weren’t demoralized following last week’s frustrating loss. The team still respects Tom Coughlin – unlike the situation in Miami, New York still has positive chemistry emanating from their locker room, and strong leadership on the field. Their offensive line is getting healthier; they have an ample supply of skill position talent and their defense has been adept at creating turnovers all year. I’m more than willing to take advantage of the cheap price being offered to support New York on Monday Night with a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take the Giants. |
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12-13-15 | Lions -2.5 v. Rams | 14-21 | Loss | -120 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#115) At the midway point of the season, the Rams had the look of a team poised to make a second half run towards a playoff spot. They started 4-3. Todd Gurley looked like a pro bowler at running back, gaining 146, 159, 128 and 133 yards on the ground over a span in which the Rams won three out of four. Their defense – particularly up front at the line of scrimmage – was dominant, capable of shutting down the likes of Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Some pundits were even touting Jeff Fisher’s squad as a potential Super Bowl contender, with wins over the likes of Seattle and Arizona in early season play. That was then. This is now. St Louis is 0-5 SU, 0-4-1 ATS since back-to-back wins over the Browns and 49ers to close out October and open up November. This team hasn’t scored more than 13 points in their last four contests. They were outgained by more than 300 yards last week, held to a single field goal in a 24 point loss. And these types of defeats aren’t coming by accident. The St Louis offense is a train wreck right now. They’re making the switch back to Case Keenum at QB this week. Keenum got Gary Kubiak fired from his job as the head coach of the Texans in his last starting gig, and he could easily do the same thing here for Jeff Fisher. In his lone previous start this season, Keenum faced an injury riddled Ravens defense, but he was still only able to complete less than half of his passes for only 136 yards. This team has only eight TD passes all year, without consistent weapons for their bad quarterbacks to throw to. Gurley’s last two games? Nine carries for 19 yards, then nine carries for 41 yards; a shell of what he was doing in October. The Rams offensive line has been devastated by key injuries, expected to be without multiple starters again this week The Rams defense is injury riddled every bit as much as their offense. They just placed safety TJ McDonald on IR, and CB Janoris Jenkins looks unlikely to pass his concussion protocol, listed as doubtful. CB Trumaine Johnson is still suffering the effects of a high ankle sprain from a few weeks back. Defensive end Robert Quinn has been placed on IR. Other than DT Aaron Donald, this defense lacks playmakers right now, plain and simple. The Rams are probably going to move to LA this offseason, with ownership pushing in that direction. That means their ‘last ever’ home game at the Edward Jones Dome would come next Thursday Night, on a short week. For a team with a minimal homefield edge, this week’s sparsely attended game (plenty of good seats still available) isn’t the type of situation where we can expect the team or the crowd to be energized in any way. The Lions were on their way to a fourth consecutive win last week, but a phantom penalty and a Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary doomed their chances. That being said, the Lions have played good football for the last month, and their season long stats – the stats that generate pointspreads -- tell a very misleading story, because they were awful early. Detroit’s big play passing game is primed to attack the Rams depleted secondary. And the Lions defensive strength at the line of scrimmage is very bad news for this weak St Louis offensive line. The extra time off since last Thursday leaves the Lions as the fresher squad and the superior team. The Rams last two home games have been non-competitive losses; 37-13 to the Bears and 27-3 to the Cardinals. No surprise here if this one is non-competitive as well. Take the Lions. |
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12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears -3.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#114) My clients and I lost last week supporting the Chicago Bears as favorites against San Francisco, a game they lost in outright fashion after giving up a big play, game tying TD in the final minute and another big play TD in overtime. That being said, the Bears defense held the 49ers out of the end zone for the first 58+ minutes of that game. They lost because Robbie Gould missed a pair of field goals from inside the 40 yard line, a rarity in Gould’s career. It was arguably the worst game Chicago has played all season, including their 26-0 shutout loss at Seattle with Jimmy Clausen playing QB instead of Jay Cutler. The Bears have a chance for redemption this week against another weak opponent as they face the Redskins. Jay Cutler, after throwing another pick six last week, his third of the season: “Offensively we didn't play that great in Green Bay either. That's kind of the facts. Today we didn't play exceptionally well either. Offensively we've got a lot of work to do.” From all indications, with a healthy Cutler, a healthy Matt Forte back at running back, and a healthy Alshon Jeffery back on the field at wide receiver, this offense is poised for a breakout game against a suspect, injury riddled Redskins stop unit. Washington is a mediocre (at best) team with a mediocre (at best) quarterback, a mediocre (at best) defense and a mediocre (at best) head coach. They are travelling on a short week off a devastating loss on Monday Night Football. Washington is winless on the road all season, and four of their five road losses have come in non-competitive fashion, by double digit margins. The Skins have been good at bouncing back off a loss this year, but I trust this overachieving Chicago squad to bounce back far more than I trust Washington to bring their ‘A’ game here. Take the Bears. |
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12-07-15 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Redskins | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#379) The mainstream narrative here, as usual, is a very simple one: Washington wins at home; Dallas is ‘out of contention’ following their ugly blowout loss to the Panthers on Thanksgiving Day. But in this instance, the mainstream narrative is wrong on both counts. The Redskins are NOT a team to blindly bet on when they play in DC and the Cowboys, from all indications, haven’t given up on their season just yet. Let me start with the Dallas piece of the equation. Yes, the Cowboys are 0-fer the season without Tony Romo as their starting quarterback. But they’ve been consistently competitive in defeat, with five of their last six losses coming by a TD or less. Matt Cassel’s QB rating of 78.8 is quite comparable to Romo’s 79.4. And Cassel is better prepared to be the starter now than he’s been at any point since joining the team after Romo got hurt the first time. Cassel watched Romo closely as the starter, and he claims that he learned a lot from that extra concentration. “The little nuances to it or the cadences. The simple things that he does at the line of scrimmage” are things that Cassel feels that he’s capable of emulating tonight. Then there’s Dez Bryant, healthy enough to practice twice this week, something that hasn’t happened much this year. His post-practice comment: “This is the best I ever felt ... since I've been back playing.” It’s surely worth noting that after 15 players were listed on the injury report against the Panthers, after the ten day layoff, Dallas has only three players listed on their injury report tonight. That’s certainly not the case for Washington; a team riddled with key injuries on the defensive side of the football; particularly in the secondary. Those injury woes were masked last week when the Giants came out flat, but they certainly were on full display when the Redskins suffered their own beating by Carolina two weeks ago, a loss that was every bit as ugly as the Cowboys loss to Carolina last week. Washington is a mediocre team with a mediocre quarterback, a mediocre defense and a mediocre head coach. Their ‘win at home, lose on the road’ season is nothing more than statistical static; not anything meaningful to base a wager on. They’re 1-5 ATS coming off a win this year, and if they win this game tonight, I’m not expecting the ‘Skins to extend their margin against a stout Cowboys stop unit that has held three of their last five foes to 14 points or less. Take the Cowboys. |
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12-06-15 | Eagles v. Patriots -8.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
Take New England (#376) It’s not hard to make a case betting against Philadelphia at this stage of the season. Philly has fought the good fight, but they’ve shown a whole lot of ‘quit’ in them in recent weeks, bad news for any team travelling to Foxboro in December. In their last two games, the Eagles became the first team in NFL HISTORY to allow five TD passes without an interception on back-2-back weeks. It’s surely worth noting that the two quarterbacks that Philly has been destroyed by are Matthew Stafford (#18 in passer rating) and Jameis Winston (#24 in passer rating). There’s been a lot of rumbling that beleaguered head coach Chip Kelly has ‘lost the locker room’ in Philadelphia. From an effort standpoint, that blowout loss to the Lions last week really stood out; a HUGE red flag. And with Kelly still looking to run his uptempo, fast paced offense – something the Patriots defense faces in practice every week – his defense, once again, has worn down. Philly ranks dead last in the NFL in time of possession – their stop unit has been on the field for more snaps than any other stop unit in the league, by a fairly wide margin. Let’s not forget how this exact same situation played out last December, when a 9-3 start turned into a 10-6 finish thanks to a defense that couldn’t get stops anymore. The betting markets have been supporting the Eagles since it was announced that Sam Bradford is likely to regain his starting QB job this week. No, Marc Sanchez is not a good NFL quarterback at this stage of his career. But Sam Bradford is no better – the two QB’s have remarkably similar statistical profiles, and Bradford has consistently been unable to connect with longer pass plays. Its surely worth noting that his lone previous start against the Patriots wasn’t pretty, a 45-7 wipeout loss. To see money come in support of the Eagles based on Bradford’s return to the lineup is nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction, giving us legitimate value to bet against them! Yes, the Patriots offense has been banged up beyond belief over the course of the last month, losing playmakers Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, among others. But the Pats could get Danny Amendola back this week. They are expected to have key LB Jamie Collins back and another key LB, Dont’a Hightower, could suit up as well. Their offensive line has jelled following a series of injuries. This might not be the same elite offense that we saw in September, but the Pats are still more than capable of hanging points in bunches. And I want New England off a frustrating loss; the type of loss that stokes the competitive fires of Brady and Belichick. The Pats got jobbed by the refs last week. They know it, we know it, the league knows it. This is a team that has taken previous grievances like this with a real chip on their collective shoulders. They went 3-0 SU and ATS off a regular season loss last year, covering the spread by a combined total of 54 points, 18 per game. It was 4-0 SU and ATS following a regular loss in 2013. ‘Nuff said. One last quote worth noting here. Tom Brady, on Monday: “I don’t think I’ve ever been so visibly pissed off after a loss. And I think everyone felt the same way. Hopefully we can use it as motivation going forward.” Take the Patriots. |
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12-06-15 | 49ers v. Bears -7 | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#352) It’s not hard to make a case betting against the worst team in the NFL as a West Coast team travelling East in a meaningless (for them) late season early start road game. San Francisco hasn’t just been bad on the road – they’ve been consistent awful, to the tune of 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS. Four of the losses have come by 16 points or more, and their defense has allowed at least 27 points in all five of those defeats. San Fran is coming off back-2-back divisional losses, leaving this game as a particularly flat spot on their schedule. And the betting markets are giving the 49ers credit for an improved offense, when, in fact, that is most assuredly not the case! Yes, Blaine Gabbert has put up decent stats for San Fran since taking over for Colin Kaepernick as the starting quarterback. Gabbert has a QB rating of 91 while completing 65% of his passes in three starts, throwing for more than 240 yards per game. On the surface, those numbers look like an upgrade at the QB position. But a closer look shows that Gabbert is still not a capable NFL starter. San Fran has gone 2-20 on third downs over the past two weeks; a HUGE indicator of overall QB weakness. Gabbert might be capable of completing short, check down throws, but he’s not stretching the field with his arm and defenses don’t respect him one iota. Most notably, the 49ers have been held to 17 points or less in five straight games, not an offense that can trade points with a team like Chicago. Given the Niners consistent defensive woes on the highway, it’s not hard to expect Gabbert to be playing from behind again this week! The Bears have been moneymakers for my clients and I in recent weeks; a team that has clearly exceeded expectations. And with three SU wins in their last four games, Chicago is suddenly live in the playoff picture; a supreme motivator for a rested squad with extra preparation time; off since Thanksgiving. That extra prep time matters here. Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase interviewed for the 49ers head coaching job last January. So did Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, the 49ers defensive coordinator throughout the Jim Harbaugh era. Neither guy got the job (obviously), bypassed for Jim Tomsula, who, from all indications, has not been a successful hire. With intimate knowledge of San Fran’s personnel and a real chip on their collective shoulders against the 49ers front office, don’t be surprised to see the well-coached Bears come out and make a statement in this one! Take the Bears. |
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12-06-15 | Seahawks v. Vikings | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -103 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: One & Only NFL Game of the Year: Take Minnesota (#364) The mainstream narrative is dead wrong about both of these teams. That offers tremendous value to back the Vikings in a major statement game for the home team; a wager worthy of ‘Big Ticket: NFL Game of the Year’ status. Seattle has now won four of their last five, solidifying their hold on a Wild Card spot in the NFC Playoff chase. But make no mistake about it – the Seahawks are not what they were last year, or the year before – not even close. Three of those four recent victories came against bottom feeders. They knocked off 3-8 San Francisco twice and eked out a one point win against the 3-8 Cowboys with Matt Cassel behind center for Dallas. Russell Wilson was brilliant in the Seahawks win and cover against the Steelers last week. Of course, Pittsburgh was -4 in turnovers in that game, and they were still very much in position to win SU or at least cover the spread until the final two minutes of play. Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. And Pittsburgh’s pass defense was simply awful, just as it was the previous week when they let Johnny Manziel throw for a career high 370 yards against them, or the week before that, when Derek Carr rallied Oakland from two scores down in the fourth quarter, throwing for more than 300 yards and four TD’s against them. This isn’t new. It isn’t different. We've seen teams run on Seattle, like the Bengals did in their come-from-17 points-behind win over the Seahawks, or the Cowboys did in their one point loss, without a passing game. We've seen teams pass on Seattle every week, like the Lions did in their near upset on Monday Night Football, and like Arizona, Pittsburgh and Carolina did to them. The Seahawks overall numbers are buoyed by those games against bottom feeders (they also beat the Bears with Jimmy Clausen at QB), but the 'eye test' has shown this defense failing repeatedly against decent offenses; particularly during crunch time. The betting markets still remember Seattle’s 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS run to close out the season last year. Guess what – that was last year, not this year. And the fact that the Seahawks are tied for #4 in the NFL in yards per play differential between what they gain on offense compared to what they allow on defense ensures betting market support, despite the fact that statistical profile is completely fraudulent. It’s also very much worth noting that the Seahawks have NOT played well on the highway at any point this season. They beat San Fran on a Thursday Night game against an inexperience coaching staff right before Colin Kaepernick got benched. And they beat Dallas by a single point with Cassel at QB, the closest the Cowboys came to winning a game with Cassel behind center. The Seahawks lost all three of their other road games (0-2-1 ATS). The case against Seattle is pretty clear – I’ve been making money fading the Seahawks on a consistent basis this season. But the case for Minnesota is what makes this wager worthy of GOY status, because the pro-Mike Zimmer side of the equation isn’t quantified with stats that the betting markets pay attention to! Rather, my STRONG support for the Vikings has a lot of nuance involved. The key point here is the Vikings previous struggles in ‘big games’. Minnesota hasn’t been on TV much this year. Remember when they got wiped out at San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 1? The markets certainly remembered that game, probably too much, because the Vikings proceeded to go 8-0 ATS in their next eight games, a truly rare occurrence at the NFL level. But the real kicker was the Vikings ugly home loss to Green Bay two weeks ago. Every post-game quote coming out of that locker room was an angry one, frustrated with their inability to step up in a statement game. Their running game didn’t work. Their defense didn’t get pressure on the opposing quarterback and gave up numerous long pass plays. Their special teams lost every battle, resulting in disastrous field position throughout the game. The Vikings also had 110 yards of penalties, and they spent the fourth quarter hearing loud cheers from the many Packers fans in attendance. This is a team built on running Adrian Peterson, playing strong defense and winning the special teams battles, so when all three of them failed on a big stage, no one was happy. Adrian Peterson: “This team you saw play today, it wasn't us. We were out of sync, out of whack.” CB Captain Munnerlyn: “We've got to fix this. You've got to be able to win when the whole world is watching.” Well, Minnesota bounced back strong with a solid double digit win at Atlanta last week, but once again, the mainstream narrative was ‘Atlanta Bad’, not ‘Minnesota Good’. Hence this pick ‘em pointspread to support the Vikings in a statement game for the superior team playing at home against a West Coast team travelling east for an early start game. Expect the Vikings to win. Big Ticket GOY: Take the Vikings. |
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11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#274)
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11-29-15 | Steelers +4 v. Seahawks | 30-39 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#271)
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11-29-15 | Bucs +3 v. Colts | 12-25 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#258) I’m not buying the Colts recent resurgence. I believe that the Bucs have legitimately turned the corner, morphing from bottom feeder into contender. Put those two factors together with this pointspread — Tampa catching a full field goal against an inferior foe — and the case for the underdog is perfectly clear. |
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11-26-15 | Bears +9 v. Packers | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#109) We’ve got ‘bet-on’ vs. ‘bet-against’ with the bet against team laying more than a touchdown! That’ll get me into play on Thanksgiving Night supporting the Bears plus the points. Green Bay is not ‘fixed’ just because the Vikings stunk last week. Read anything from the post-game and you’ll see one quote after the next from Minnesota players talking about how poorly they played. The Packers won their first game in a month by a blowout margin, but Aaron Rodgers didn’t hit 50% of his passes again. James Jones was the only receiver who produced even 40 receiving yards. Green Bay’s defense allowed Teddy Bridegwater to connect for eight yards per pass attempt without forcing a turnover. The Vikings ran for 5.2 yards per carry, despite not featuring Adrian Peterson very much. Green Bay was outgained by nearly a full yard per play. The Packers have been getting outplayed on a weekly basis for two full months now. Remember Week 4 at San Francisco, when the Packers were as flat as a pancake? Green Bay scored only 17 points, but the Niners ineptitude was a difference maker ATS. How about Week 5 against St Louis? The Packers couldn’t run and spent most of the afternoon struggling to move the football through the air. But the Rams converted only one of their four red zone opportunities, missed a pair of field goals, and threw a pick six as part of a four interception afternoon. Green Bay got the money, but they didn’t deserve it. The Packers were outgained by nearly 200 yards on their home field by San Diego. Green Bay needed a fourth down goal line stop to escape with a non-spread covering win at home against a last place Chargers team back in Week 6. Then following their bye they lost SU and ATS to the Broncos, Panthers and Lions. Teams losing at home as double digit favorites to the Lions are not good teams, period. The last time the Packers played a legitimate good game was in Week 3 on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs. This team is a paper tiger, worthy of a fade in this inflated pointspread range. The Bears battled the Packers down to the wire in the first meeting between these two teams this year. Trailing by one score in the fourth quarter, the Bears were stopped on downs at the Packers two yard line, followed by a Jay Cutler pick at the Green Bay 20 on the next drive. It was not a one sided game – Chicago had more yards and more first downs. And that’s been the Bears M.O all year - -competing, right through the final whistle. Since Cutler came back healthy following a short injury absence that forced Jimmy Clausen into the lineup, the Bears are 4-3 SU. The three losses have come by three, three and two points. The wins have come by one, two, three and 24 points. This team has shown remarkable character and resiliency, bouncing back from numerous key injuries (and a good handful of bad Cutler interceptions) to hang tough with everybody. I’m quite comfortable recommending a wager supporting this live underdog considering they haven’t lost a game by more than a field goal since Week 3. Take the Bears. |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7.5 v. Patriots | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 81 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Buffalo (#475) Everybody’s power ratings have the New England Patriots ranked as the #1 team in the NFL. And they should. The Pats are undefeated this season on the heels of winning the Super Bowl last year. But when we’re talking about the highest power rated team in the NFL and the single most public team in the NFL, we start to see a legitimate value problem by this stage of the campaign. Let’s not forget how New England’s magical 2007 undefeated regular season campaign went ATS-wise. The Pats went 9-1 ATS in their first ten games. They closed out the campaign on a 1-5 ATS run, and failed to cover all three playoff games. The markets were simply too ‘hot’ on the Patriots, routinely pricing New England a good notch or two too high. The Patriots haven’t been nearly as good ATS this year as they were in their previous unbeaten season; entering Week 11 with a modest 5-3-1 ATS mark. But it’s surely worth noting that the Pats two lowest scoring games of the entire campaign came in the last two weeks against the Redskins and Giants; neither of whom is known for having anything resembling a quality defense. It’s also worth noting that Tom Brady wasn’t good last week; bad news for an elite QB getting up there in age. Brady threw a terrible interception in the end zone with the Pats clinging to a one point, fourth quarter lead. And then, after the Giants mismanaged the clock badly, leaving New England with plenty of time, Brady’s first pass was another poorly thrown INT which should have sealed the Giants victory, but this time it was dropped by rookie Landon Collins. Brady’s current woes are understandable. Over the course of the last month, he’s lost several key components on his offensive line; bad news for a unit that lacked quality depth to begin with. Nate Solder, Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendall have all been placed on IR, while Tre’ Jackson, Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer were both unable to play last week and are no sure thing to suit up on Monday Night either. Brady has also lost his top safety blanket, WR Julian Edelman and his other safety valve, RB Dion Lewis, a dangerous weapon catching passes out of the backfield. New England’s offense isn’t as good as it was a month or two ago – not even close. Neither is the Patriots defense. As we saw last week, with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, New England allowed an 86 yard Giants drive that should have clinched the game; unable to get a key stop. That’s a legitimate concern since New England hasn’t faced an above average offense since they played Buffalo the first time, a 40-32 Pats road win. Let’s not forget that New England was an underdog in that game. Now they’re laying a touchdown or more, depending on the book. My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Bills last week in their outright upset against the Jets. And Buffalo remains something of an undervalued commodity this week. Yes, Buffalo underachieved throughout October, going 1-3 SU and ATS, in a four game stretch, the lone victory coming by a single point at Tennessee. But the Bills aren’t the same team now that they were last month. It makes a big difference to have a healthy QB in Tyrod Taylor, two healthy RB’s in Shady McCoy and Karlos Williams, and a healthy deep threat in Sammy Watkins all returning to the field following injury absences. Rex Ryan’s pre-bye quote stands out even more now: “Quite honestly, I don't know if I've ever been on a team that needed a bye week worse than we do. We got to get some guys back. Not just average football players, but pretty darn good ones. We got to get them back, we got to get healthy and have a heck of a go at it, nine games." So far, the Bills are 2-0 since getting everybody back, covering the spread by more than a touchdown in both contests. Expect that ATS winning streak to continue here. Take the Bills. |
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11-22-15 | Raiders v. Lions | 13-18 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#453) The Raiders have been NFL laughingstocks for more than a decade, but things are clearly, finally looking up in Jack Del Rio’s first year on the job. Oakland has developed a big play passing game with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree providing quick strike TD potential on every catch. Derek Carr is avoiding interceptions, throwing only six picks on 316 pass attempts. RB Latavius Murray should feast on a Lions defense that’s struggled repeatedly against the run this year. Off back-2-back losses, expect an inspired performance from this offense this week, against a D that is not poised to stop them. All the quotes coming out of the Raiders locker room this week have been positive; not a team that is overly concerned about the weight of their season high two game losing streak heading into Week 11. Offensive tackle Donald Penn: “We lost a game. We're not about to go crazy. There's no panic at all, none of that at all. We're positive and upbeat. We're a little sad because we know we left a lot out on the field today." Carr has a QB rating of 101.5 this year, among the league’s elites. Meanwhile the Lions defense has allowed opposing QB’s to notch a 105.7 QB rating against them, truly dismal numbers. They’ve allowed opposing QB’s to throw for 16 touchdowns against them, while intercepting only four passes all year. Overall, Detroit ranks #28 in yards per play allowed; bad news against a Raiders offense that hung 37 on San Diego and 35 on Pittsburgh in their last two road games. Detroit has allowed 28+ four times in their last five games thanks to that leaky defense and their turnover prone offense. Detroit isn’t going to gain much on the ground with their running game, because they don’t have one. That means an ample supply of Matthew Stafford drop-backs, a one-dimensional offense. And that, quite simply, hasn’t worked – the Lions have been held to 20 points or less seven times in their last eight games. Three TD’s won’t be enough for Detroit to win this game…… Take the Raiders. |
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11-22-15 | Rams +3 v. Ravens | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 50 h 41 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#459) Here’s an extended excerpt from my anti-Ravens write-up last week, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities. My basic premise remains the same – Baltimore has no business as favorites against ANYBODY right now. “Baltimore is a shell of the team they’ve been for the last decade. Their defense has lost every bit of leadership they had following the retirements of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed along with Terrell Suggs’ season ending injury. Prior to their bye, Colin Kaepernick and Josh McCown both had their best game of the season against this stop unit. That was followed by Philip Rivers throwing for 301 yards and three TD’s without an interception in a three point Ravens win prior to their bye week – the same Philip Rivers that couldn’t produce more than a single field goal after halftime against the Bears hapless defense on Monday Night Football last week. “The Ravens have been favored seven times in their first nine games. They’ve covered the spread as a favorite exactly zero times. John Harbaugh’s squad has lost five of those seven in SU fashion with a push against the Steelers (remember when Pittsburgh’s kicker missed the game winner twice?) and an ATS loss against the Chargers just prior to the bye. With a depleted roster that has been banged up beyond belief, the Ravens are legitimate bottom feeders; not a team that has any business laying points to any opponent at this stage of the campaign. Perennial playoff teams in the midst of a ‘fall off the map’ season are, quite simply, lousy bets as chalk as the season progresses towards it’s latter stages.” These quotes following Baltimore’s loss to Jacksonville last week really stands out. QB Joe Flacco: “We're not the type of team that's finding ways to win right now.” Head coach John Harbaugh: “Obviously about as tough a loss as you ever going to see, you're ever going to have to deal with.” This team is neither mentally prepared nor physically capable of bouncing back strong this week. And the betting move towards the Ravens has come for all the wrong reasons. Yes, St Louis mercifully benched Nick Foles this week, replacing him with Case Keenum. Keenum is not going to suddenly become a stud NFL quarterback, but he’s better than Foles, who has been nothing short of awful. The Rams deserve an UPGRADE, not a downgrade based on the QB change, but the markets have knee jerked the other way. Wrong team favored here! I’m more than willing to bet this at +2.5 if need be, but I am waiting, with a few -3’s starting to pop up. Take the Rams. |
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11-22-15 | Broncos +1.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 95 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#467) I tend to step up my wager to a Big Ticket level in two particular circumstances. Either the markets are misreading and/or mispricing at least one of the two teams, or the spot stands out strongly enough that the markets aren’t making the appropriate adjustments. This game features both of those circumstances working in Denver’s favor. The Broncos are, quite simply, badly mispriced in the betting markets this week; coming off their single worst game of the season. If you watched Denver this preseason, you know that Brock Osweiler was better than Peyton Manning in August. If you watched last week’s game, you know that Brock Osweiler was better than Peyton Manning in that game as well. Sure, Osweiler made a couple of ugly throws, typical for a first time starter at QB. But the Chiefs defense is one heck of a lot better than the stop unit Osweiler will face this week in Chicago. From a line value perspective, this game stands out like a sore thumb. The lookahead line LAST WEEK – not over the summer, but last week – was Denver -6.5. The Broncos lost, Manning got ruled out for this week, while Chicago played their single best game of the season, beating up the Rams, Lo and behold, there’s been an EIGHT POINT adjustment, That’s not just ‘too much’. In fact, it’s ‘way too much’. Manning is a Hall of Famer, but he’s been holding his team back all year – period. The numbers don’t lie. Manning ranks #31 out of 32 NFL quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify (ahead of only Ryan Mallett) with a 67.6 QB rating. He leads the league in interceptions, while throwing only nine TD passes in nine games. Pardon my all caps here, but I want to make this very clear. THE BRONCOS ARE AS GOOD OR BETTER WITHOUT MANNING AT QB! There’s no downgrade for a team replacing the 31st ranked QB, especially since we already know that his backup can play! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Chicago two weeks ago when they went to San Diego and won outright as an underdog – I’ve got modest respect for the surprising Bears. But on the defensive side of the football, there’s absolutely no comparison between these two teams. Denver has allowed 4.3 yards per play this year compared to 5.6 yards per play allowed for Chicago. The Broncos allow 3.5 yards per carry. The Bears allow 4.6 yards per carry. Opposing QB’s have a 74.6 rating against the Broncos. Against the Bears, opposing QB’s have a 94.8 rating. And oh, by the way, the Broncos have accumulated those defensive stats against a schedule that’s been just as tough as Chicago’s. Chicago has lost every ‘step-up’ game this year, falling to the Packers, Vikings, Cardinals and Seahawks. Three of their four wins have been complete coinflips by three points or less. And last weeks’ blowout against the Rams had as much to do with Nick Foles inept play as any other factor. This is not a team with much of a homefield edge – their only win at Soldier Field all year came by two points against the Raiders, when Oakland was making their second straight trip East for an early start game. Denver is still very much a Super Bowl contender, but the Broncos are coming off back-2-back losses; circle the wagons time for Gary Kubiak and company – this is a clear Broncos ‘bet-on spot’ this week. They’ll get shutdown corner Aqib Talib back from his suspension this week, and his counterpart, TJ Ward, is expected to suit up as well. Look for plenty of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson between the tackles, setting things up for Osweiler to succeed in his first NFL start. After sitting on Denver’s bench for the last four years, he’s ready……..Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars -2.5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#310) There’s one trend that has become VERY clear on Thursday Night Football this year. Experienced coaches have a big edge over the coaches who haven’t had to get their team ready for a short turnaround week. Look at how the less experienced coaches teams have performed this year – I’ve listed every single example from this year, which shows a 7-0 ATS mark betting against the inexperienced coaches (first or second year as an NFL head coach). Last week, the experienced Rex Ryan got the win and cover as an underdog against the inexperienced Todd Bowles. The Browns got wiped out in Cincinnati, with the relatively inexperienced Mike Pettine facing off against coaching veteran Marvin Lewis. First year, first time head coach Dan Campbell did not have his team ready against Bill Belichick on Thursday Night the previous week. San Fran’s inexperienced Jim Tomsula got annihilated by Pete Carroll the week before that. Atlanta’s Dan Quinn in his first year at the helm didn’t have his team ready at Sean Payton’s Saints the week before that. In his second year, Bill O’Brien’s Texans struggled against Chuck Pagano and the Colts before that. Jay Gruden, in his second year, was no match for Tom Coughlin when the Giants faced the Redskins. This is NOT a trend that the betting markets seem to be noticing, but it’s been paying off all year and it passes the ‘does it make sense’ test. A short week is not easy for any coach, and the coaches who haven’t been in this spot are at a real and significant disadvantage. Gus Bradley has won SU and ATS on a short week as a home favorite in each of the last two seasons. Mike Mularkey has only been the Titans head coach for two weeks, and in his lone previous Thursday Night try, his Jaguars got hammered in a 17 point loss. Plain and simple – this is a bigger edge than the markets are giving it credit for being, especially since nobody seems to have noticed….. And I like this spot for the Jaguars, coming off a dismal effort at Baltimore. Jacksonville played one of their worst games of the season, outgained by more than two yards per play. But they were able to take advantage of numerous Ravens mistakes to emerge with the win; a real confidence boost for this long struggling team. All of a sudden, the Jags are just a game out of first place. They’ve got plenty to play for and they’re better than what we saw last week. Tennessee has been held to 13 points or less five times in their last six games and they’ve got cluster injuries in the secondary. That’s a bad combo in this pointspread range. Take the Jaguars. |
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11-15-15 | Cardinals +3 v. Seahawks | 39-32 | Win | 100 | 81 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#273) My clients and I have four wins and a push betting against the Seahawks already this year, and my anti- Seattle fade is on full display again this week, betting against this still overvalued commodity. The Seahawks have four wins this year. They beat the hapless Bears with even more hapless Jimmy Clausen at QB for Chicago. They needed an incorrect referee decision to sneak past the hapless Lions, lucky to escape with a non-spread covering win against Detroit. They beat equally hapless San Francisco on a short week, facing an inexperienced coaching staff in Colin Kaepernick’s last home game as the starter. It’s surely worth noting that Chicago (with Clausen), Detroit and San Fran all rank among the five worst teams in the NFL according to my power ratings. Their other win came by a single point at Dallas with Matt Cassel at quarterback, another non-spread covering victory. What’s wrong with Seattle? Many things! The two key factors for me are an offensive line that is extremely suspect and a defense that is vastly overrated when we adjust for their opponents’ capabilities. Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any QB in the league this year. Marshawn Lynch is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, more than a full yard per carry less than last year. Seattle’s offensive line woes are very real, and they’re not likely to go away even after their bye week. And Seattle’s defense isn’t nearly as good as their recent editions. We’ve seen teams run on Seattle, like the Bengals did in their come-from-17 points-behind win over the Seahawks. We’ve seen teams pass on Seattle, like the Lions did in their near upset on Monday Night Football, and like Carolina did to them when they won SU on this field in the Seahawks last home game. Their overall numbers are buoyed by the games against Detroit, Chicago and San Fran, but the ‘eye test’ has shown this defense failing repeatedly against decent offenses; particularly during crunch time. While the Seahawks remain and overvalued commodity (2-5-1 ATS), the Cardinals have been an undervalued commodity all season long, disrespected by the wiseguys, just like they were disrespected last year. This team was embarrassed twice by the Seahawks in 2014 –a pretty good motivator during their bye week, especially considering that Arizona’s path to a coveted division title goes through Seattle. Let’s not forget that Carson Palmer led the Cards to a SU win in Seattle in 2013, ending the Seahawks remarkable 14 game home winning streak. Nor should we forget that the Cardinals statistical profile: a team that gains 1.6 yards per play more than they allow – is, by far, the best in the NFL. Arizona is the elite team here, not Seattle; with the three points giving us a nice little cushion should they fail to win the game in straight up fashion. Look for ‘Zona to show a national TV audience that they are very, very real….. Take the Cardinals. |
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11-15-15 | Chiefs +6 v. Broncos | Top | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas City (#269) Despite their disappointing 1-5 start – a stretch in which the Chiefs literally gave away wins to the Broncos, Bears and Vikings with late game collapses and miscues – there is a clear path to the AFC West title or a Wild Card run for Kansas City. The Chiefs turned their season around with a pair of wins prior to their bye week. Their upcoming schedule features two games against the Chargers and two more against the Raiders – winnable games. They get Buffalo and Cleveland at home, and travel to Baltimore; again, all winnable games. But any path to the playoffs starts here in Denver on Sunday; a HUGE game for the road team, especially considering the revenge angle from the first meeting. When these teams met in Week 2, KC controlled the flow throughout. But their defense faltered with the game on the line over the final two minutes, allowing a Peyton Manning TD drive to tie the game. That was followed immediately by a Jamal Charles fumble, returned for the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The team was hung over from that loss for weeks, and judging from the quotes coming out of that KC locker room during the bye, it’s a loss that they’re focused to avenge this Sunday. Coach Andy Reid: “They’ve worked hard, they’ve stayed focused. I think some of the young players have grown up a bit. And then some of the guys that were banged up a bit, either from last year or earlier in this season, have come back and look like they’re getting more into the swing of things…. I’ve said it before. I like this football team. They’ve showed the last few weeks why.” It’s no secret that Reid’s teams have enjoyed tremendous success off the bye, 14-2 SU dating back to his tenure in Philadelphia. He gave his team a full week off to start the bye – they’re rested and ready now. Peyton Manning was back to his noodle armed self in Indy last week, following a strong effort after the Broncos own bye week. His 9 TD to 13 INT ratio this season looks ugly, both on paper and in reality. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has a better QB rating than Manning, who now ranks below the likes of Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles in QB rating this season. Denver has only gotten three 20+ yard carries from their running game all season. And the Chiefs defense is the toughest D that the Broncos have faced since their tight, late three point win over Minnesota more than a month ago. Don’t look for Denver to march up and down the field on offense Denver will be without two key pieces on the defensive side of the football; the unit that has carried them to victory in the vast majority of their games this season. Shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib has been suspended, while their best pass rusher and leading sackmeister DeMarcus Ware is out with injury. This is not a depleted defense, but without two of their best players, it’s not as good as it’s been. Look for KC to hang tough here for the full 60 minutes, with a solid shot at the outright upset. Big Ticket: Take the Chiefs. |
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11-15-15 | Jaguars +6 v. Ravens | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#265) Baltimore is a shell of the team they’ve been for the last decade. Their defense has lost every bit of leadership they had following the retirements of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed along with Terrell Suggs’ season ending injury. Prior to their bye, Colin Kaepernick and Josh McCown both had their best game of the season against this stop unit. That was followed by Philip Rivers throwing for 301 yards and three TD’s without an interception in a three point Ravens win prior to their bye week – the same Philip Rivers that couldn’t produce more than a single field goal after halftime against the Bears hapless defense on Monday Night Football last week. The Ravens have been favored six times in their first eight games. They’ve covered the spread as a favorite exactly zero times. John Harbaugh’s squad has lost four of those six in SU fashion with a push against the Steelers (remember when Pittsburgh’s kicker missed the game winner twice?) and an ATS loss against the Chargers just prior to the bye. With a depleted roster that has been banged up beyond belief, the Ravens are legitimate bottom feeders; not a team that has any business laying more than a field goal to any opponent at this stage of the campaign. Perennial playoff teams in the midst of a ‘fall off the map’ season are, quite simply, lousy bets as chalk as the season progresses towards it’s latter stages. While the Ravens remain a bet-against team, the Jaguars are primed to take the next step towards respectability. There’s no question that Gus Bradley’s talent level is the best that it’s been during his tenure in Jacksonville. They outgained the Jets by 150 yards last week, covering the spread despite a -4 turnover margin; an extreme rarity in the NFL. And that wasn’t their only strong effort away from home in recent weeks either, beating the Bills in London, taking Indy to OT at Indy, and hanging 31 at Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles has been putting up huge numbers: 11 TD passes with three 300 yard games in his last four outings. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are legitimate downfield threats, while key offseason acquisition Julius Thomas at TE is finally healthy. Rookie RB TJ Yeldon has averaged more than five yards per carry in his last two games. This offense is working better than it has in years (decades), capable of trading points with anybody right now. And with the Ravens defense tied for dead last in the NFL with only three defensive interceptions all year, Bortles biggest weakness (turnovers) is not likely to be on full display this Sunday. Expect a tight, competitive game. Take the Jaguars. |
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11-12-15 | Bills +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#109) I tend to step up my wager to a Big Ticket level in two particular circumstances. Either the markets are misreading and/or mispricing at least one of the two teams, or the spot stands out strongly enough that the markets aren’t making the appropriate adjustments. This game features both of those circumstances working in Buffalo’s favor. The Bills are mis-priced in the betting markets. Yes, Buffalo underachieved throughout October, going 1-3 SU and ATS, in a four game stretch, the lone victory coming by a single point at Tennessee. But the Bills aren’t the same team now that they were last month. It makes a big difference to have a healthy QB in Tyrod Taylor, two healthy RB’s in Shady McCoy and Karlos Williams, and a healthy deep threat in Sammy Watkins all returning to the field following injury absences in their blowout over Miami last Sunday. Rex Ryan’s pre-bye quote stands out even more now: “Quite honestly, I don't know if I've ever been on a team that needed a bye week worse than we do. We got to get some guys back. Not just average football players, but pretty darn good ones. We got to get them back, we got to get healthy and have a heck of a go at it, nine games." With the offensive line coming off a great effort and a defense that has benefitted from some scheme tweaking during the bye, the Bills deserve to be priced at more than a field goal higher than they were before the bye. I’m not seeing the markets making a big enough adjustment! The Jets are mis-priced in the betting markets too! This is a VERY banged up football team. Their running game hasn’t worked with center Nick Mangold and tackle Willie Colon very limited due to injuries – Chris Ivory has only 84 yards on 55 carries over the past three weeks. Kicker Nick Folk is out, forcing the Jets to eschew field goals last week. Their secondary is banged up with Antonio Cromartie no sure thing to suit up on Thursday, joining Dee Millner and Calvin Pryor on the injury list. And QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely to get thumb surgery immediately following the game. This Jets team was +4 in turnovers last week and still almost lost at home to the Jaguars; picked apart by Blake Bortles in the passing game. Yes, the Jets would be a playoff team if the season ended today, but make no mistake about it – the current banged up Jets deserve a significant power rating downgrade from where they were back in September and early October. And if there’s one trend that has become VERY clear on Thursday Night Football this year, it’s that experienced coaches have a big edge over the coaches who haven’t had to get their team ready for a short turnaround week. Look at how the less experienced coaches teams have performed this year – I’ve listed every single example from this year, which shows a 6-0 ATS mark betting against the inexperienced coaches (first or second year as an NFL head coach). The Browns just got wiped out last Thursday, with the relatively inexperienced Mike Pettine facing off against coaching veteran Marvin Lewis. First year, first time head coach Dan Campbell did not have his team ready against Bill Belichick on Thursday Night the previous week. San Fran’s inexperienced Jim Tomsula got wiped out by Pete Carroll the week before that. Atlanta’s Dan Quinn in his first year at the helm didn’t have his team ready at Sean Payton’s Saints the week before that. In his second year, Bill O’Brien’s Texans struggled against Chuck Pagano and the Colts before that. Jay Gruden, in his second year, was no match for Tom Coughlin when the Giants faced the Redskins. This is NOT a trend that the betting markets seem to be noticing, but it’s been paying off all year and it passes the ‘does it make sense’ test. A short week is not easy for any coach, and the first timers are at a real and significant disadvantage. I’ll give Rex Ryan a big edge here over Todd Bowles, expecting the outright upset on his return to the Big Apple. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +4 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 125 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#473) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: San Diego can’t be laying more than a field goal to ANYBODY right now The Chargers injury list is truly a mile long, missing numerous key starters on both sides of the football. I’ll just rattle a bunch of names off here: their best receiver, Keenan Allen just went on IR. So did RB Brandon Oliver and LB Tourek Williams. Offensive linemen Orlando Franklin and King Dunlap are both questionable at best this week, as is TE LaDarius Green. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Brandon Flowers, DE Corey Liuget, S Eric Weddle, LB Manti Te’o, LB Denzel Perryman and CB Craig Mager all have significant injury concerns. These aren’t second tier players – they comprise most of the Chargers top talent. But because QB Philip Rivers is still healthy (relatively, he’s taken a ton of big hits over the past few weeks), the betting markets haven’t made major adjustments – hence this pointspread. There’s no ‘circling the wagons’ for this team this year, not with six losses in their last seven games. San Diego’s two wins have come by five against the Lions and by three against the Browns; neither of whom is better than Chicago. The Chargers are more than ready for their upcoming bye week. It’s surely worth noting that they lost 37-0 at Miami just prior to their bye week last year….. Bears head coach John Fox has dominated his former assistants, like Mike McCoy in San Diego, winning four times in five meetings against McCoy. His team has been playing competitive football; four straight games where there was a lead change in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Since two non-competitive losses to Arizona and Seattle in September (one of which featured Jimmy Clausen at QB), this team has been in every game; beating the Raiders and Chiefs while coming a field goal short against the Lions and Vikings. I’m not worried about the Matt Forte injury for Chicago – Jeremy Langford is a more than capable fill-in. The Bears defense has been better than advertised, and Jay Cutler has developed excellent chemistry with big play WR Alshon Jeffrey and TE Martellus Bennett. And for a team that has been outside the spotlight for the last few years, a quote like this stands out, from offensive lineman Kyle Long: ‘“I'm really excited to see how this team responds to playing under the lights in front of the national, international stage. All of our colleagues will be watching. Pretty special thing in the NFL to be able to play on Monday night.” I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Chargers share that level of enthusiasm…..Big Ticket: Take the Bears. |
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11-08-15 | Eagles -2.5 v. Cowboys | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 101 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#471) From all indications, the Eagles got everything they wanted to accomplish accomplished during their bye week. First and foremost, they got healthy, with 52 guys on their 53 man roster practicing fully this week; good news for a team that’s been pretty banged up since training camp. Secondly, they’ve worked on their offensive line issues, a weakness that doomed them in their first matchup against the Cowboys this season. Troy Aikman’s quote during that game still stands out: “This has been about as poor of a (offensive) performance as I can recall ever seeing in this league." Offensive tackle Lane Johnson was not amused by that effort, especially after his film study session. “It pisses me off, when you feel like you can dominate the guys up front, then you go out there and don't get it done. They did a lot of slanting. We go back and watch it, it was just execution, all across the board. That's pretty much what it was, just us hurting ourselves . . . It was always one block away from having some decent runs…..I think from a communication standpoint, we've gotten a lot better.” Center Jason Kelce: “I think we're night and day better than we were before….We're handling movement a lot better now than we were before. There's better chemistry up front," with Allen Barbre settled in at left guard and Matt Tobin having made four successive starts at right guard. Barbre: "Watching (the film) was kinda like, 'It's horrible. We've gotta do way better.' You can see mistakes we definitely shouldn't have made." Philly’s recent results show the OL improvement rather clearly. In their first two games, they gained 70 yards on 33 carries; 2.1 yards per carry. In their last three games, they’ve rushed for 518 yards on 101 carries; a solid 5.1 ypc average. And when Philly runs the football, Sam Bradford’s pass action passes work and the Eagles defense stays rested; off the field. Facing a Cowboys defense that has a grand total of one takeaway in the last five games, I’m expecting an inspired offensive showing from the road favorite. Can Dallas trade points with Philly? It sure doesn’t look likely! Dez Bryant was a non-factor in his return from injury last week, catching only two balls for 14 yards. Matt Cassel looked a lot like Brandon Weeden, the man he replaced at the QB positon two games ago. 26 running back carries netted only 86 yards, and Dallas was held out of the end zone for the second time in their last three games, settling for four field goals. Those field goals were enough to cash a winning bet on the Cowboys last week as bigger home dogs. I don’t expect similar success for Dallas backers this week, as their extended losing streak continues. Take the Eagles. |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers -4 | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#452) From a ‘good spot, bad spot’ standpoint, this game really stands out. The Raiders are ‘fat and happy’ coming off a pair of dominant wins. While Oakland is clearly better than they’ve been in any recent season, it’s still surely worth noting that the Raiders haven’t won three in a row since 2011; not a team that collectively has much experience handling success. Their three previous road games this year have all come against weaklings – San Diego, Chicago and Cleveland, teams with a combined 6-17 SU record this year. And in two previous ‘step-up-in-class’ games this season, the Raiders were held to 10 points in a home loss to Denver, while getting waxed by three TD’s against Cincinnati. And even Oakland’s current two game winning streak must come with an asterisk. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Oakland against the Chargers, noting what a dismal spot it was for banged up San Diego. The spot was every bit as bad for the Jets last week and New York’s starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick got knocked out of the game early. Yes, Oakland controlled the flow in both games, but they were SUPPOSED to control the flow in both games. That’s most assuredly not the case this week! Ben Roethlisberger looked pretty rusty in his first game back from injury against a strong Bengals stop unit last week, and Pittsburgh was held to a single field goal after RB Le’Veon Bell suffered a season ending injury in the first half. That makes it ‘circle the wagons’ time for the 4-4 Steelers, off back-2-back losses. Pittsburgh’s defense has been a vastly underrated unit, repeatedly shutting down some elite level offenses this year. They held both Cinci and New England to their lowest point totals of the year, and held Arizona to their second lowest point total of the year. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter last week, the Steelers intercepted Andy Dalton twice. Pittsburgh’s season long stats won’t show it, but this is absolutely a defense worth betting on right now. And when we talk about Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward Bay and Heath Miller, that’s one heck of a pass catching quintet for Ben Roethlisberger to work with! DeAngelo Williams is more than capable of filling in for the injured Bell – both backs have averaged 4.9 yards per carry this year, and Williams was the more effective runner last week. Oakland doesn’t have Cinci’s pass rush, and it was that pass rush that doomed the Steelers chances last week. Look for a solid bounceback win from Mike Tomlin’s squad here. Big Ben: “It’s never easy to put a loss behind you, but you have to, especially for a quarterback. You have to have a short memory, good and bad. It’s really easy to do now because we’re at the halfway point. Just close the book and move forward.” Take the Steelers. |
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11-02-15 | Colts v. Panthers -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Take Carolina (#276) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Panthers last week in their win and cover over Philly. Numbers have been updated to reflect current realities. “There’s quite a bit of debate within the handicapping community as to how good these Panthers really are. The betting markets certainly don’t believe in Carolina; a team that took Under $$ on their season win total throughout the preseason. Bettors were not impressed by the Panthers 4-0 start, because all they beat was bottom feeders: the Jags, Texans, Saints and Bucs in the first four weeks, teams that are a combined 12-18 this year. Their come-from-behind win against the Seahawks didn’t change market perception. And the takeaway from last week’s win against the Eagles was more ‘Philly bad’ than ‘Carolina good.’ So there’s still legitimate debate as to Carolina’s 6-0 start, with many seasoned bettors calling Carolina a fraud. “I disagree with that assessment strongly! Carolina has an elite defense, ranked #2 in the NFL in yards per play allowed – only the Broncos have been better. The Panthers also have an elite quarterback in Cam Newton and despite the lack of top notch WR talent, the Panthers have passed the ball effectively all year. RB Jonathan Stewart is more than capable of providing balance. Let’s not forget that since their 3-8-1 start last year, the Panthers are 11-1 SU in their last dozen games, the lone loss coming at Seattle in the playoffs last year via a Kam Chancellor 90 yard pick six in the fourth quarter. This is a very good team – borderline elite – that the markets simply don’t respect.” We’ve seen continued disrespect for Carolina in the betting markets leading up until kickoff, with the Panthers bet down to as low as -5 as I type this on Monday morning. This comes despite the fact that the Colts are pretty much a train wreck right now. Andrew Luck isn’t healthy, and he’s enduring the worst season of his professional career. Indy’s offensive line is a bottom tier unit, bad news against Carolina’s devastating pass rush. Indy’s supposedly ‘elite’ level receiving corps has been anything but elite, bad news against Carolina’s top notch secondary. The Colts rank #30 in the NFL at rushing the football, leaving all the pressure on Luck’s shoulders. That hasn’t worked out too well thusfar, considering Indy’s three wins have come against the Titans, Jaguars and Texans. But the two biggest ongoing issues for the Colts don’t include that underachieving offense. Indy’s defense is just flat out bad. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. They don’t generate sacks (only 10 all year) or turnovers (only seven forced in seven games). I don’t trust Indy to keep Carolina’s offense off the field. And the ongoing Chuck Pagano circus is clearly an issue for the Colts right now. Pagano has no contract extension. His every move – particularly on special teams decisions in recent weeks – has been scrutinized unmercifully. It’s pretty clear that Pagano is on his way out from Indy, not that dissimilar a situation to the one that the 49ers faced with Jim Harbaugh last year. San Fran covered only two pointspreads in their final ten games of 2014…….. Take the Panthers. |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 104 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#274) Let’s thoroughly examine the rationale behind the Packers being installed as road favorites in Denver on Sunday Night. Denver is 6-0. Green Bay is 6-0. Denver lost in the AFC Playoffs last year. Green Bay lost in the NFC Playoffs last year. But the betting markets are telling us that Denver is a complete fraud while Green Bay is an elite contender. I’m definitely not buying the first argument – offense might be sexier than defense in the NFL’s modern era, but Denver has a Super Bowl caliber stop unit, plain and simple. And I’ve got my questions about the second argument as well. Green Bay has clear, exploitable flaws, particularly on defense, but their opponents haven’t been able to exploit them just yet. More than half of Green Bay’s ATS covers have been fraudulent, leaving them as an overvalued commodity. Remember back in Week 1, when the Bears were going in for the potential game tying score but Jay Cutler threw an end zone pick? The Packers got the money, but they didn’t deserve it. How about Week 4 at San Francisco, when the Packers were as flat as a pancake? Green Bay scored only 17 points, but the Niners ineptitude was a difference maker ATS. How about Week 5 against St Louis? The Packers couldn’t run and spent most of the afternoon struggling to move the football through the air. But the Rams converted only one of their four red zone opportunities, missed a pair of field goals, and threw a pick six as part of a four interception afternoon. Green Bay got the money, but they didn’t deserve it. The Chargers stink; a bottom-tier defense and a hit-or-miss offense. The Packers were outgained by nearly 200 yards on their home field by San Diego. Green Bay needed a fourth down goal line stop to escape with a non-spread covering win at home against a last place team right before their bye week. There are two points to be made here. First, the Packers aren’t as good as their SU or ATS record would indicate. Second, this team is an overvalued commodity after notching all of those victories. Green Bay’s only standout win came back in Week 2 in the mother-of-all revenge spots against a Seahawks team with a losing record. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Green Bay in that game, but the red flags mentioned above were all on display even back then. It’s surely worth noting that all six of Green Bay’s wins has come against an opponent with a losing or .500 record – they haven’t beaten a winning team all year. The Broncos defense is truly elite on all three units. They rank #1 in sack percentage and #3 in opponents passer rating while holding foes to 3.6 yards per rush, another #1 ranking. Green Bay’s defense allows more than a full yard per carry more than the Broncos D. Facing a one dimensional Packers offense – Green Bay’s leading rusher against St Louis was Aaron Rodgers and other than James Starks 65 yard scamper against the lousy Chargers run defense, the rest of their 14 RB carries produced only 54 yards – this is a chance for Denver to show how good this Wade Phillips defense really is on a national stage. But the key here is Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense, a struggling unit through the first half of the season. First, we’re getting a rested and ready Manning coming off a bye, with extra practice time. Denver has reportedly ‘simplified’ the offense to Manning’s liking over the bye week. Secondly, the Broncos are going to be fully healthy at RB this week, with Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson poised to provide the 1-2 punch that they haven’t been able to do for the first half of the campaign due to health issues. And third, let’s not underestimate how hungry and focused this team is; arguably the most criticized 6-0 team in NFL history, in part, because they HAVEN’T been covering inflated pointspreads like the Packers have. Well, this certainly isn’t an inflated pointspread for the Denver side of the equation, and I want a 6-0 team that’s HUNGRY coming out of the bye, not one who isn’t. Take the Broncos. |
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11-01-15 | Seahawks v. Cowboys +6 | 13-12 | Win | 100 | 100 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#272) My clients and I have three wins and a push betting against the Seahawks already this year, and my anti- Seattle fade is on full display again this week. The Seahawks have three wins this year. They beat the hapless Bears with even more hapless Jimmy Clausen at QB for Chicago. They needed an incorrect referee decision to sneak past the hapless Lions. And last week, they beat equally hapless San Francisco on a short week, facing an inexperienced coaching staff. It’s surely worth noting that Chicago (with Clausen), Detroit and San Fran all rank among the five worst teams in the NFL according to my power ratings. What’s wrong with Seattle? Many things! The two key factors here are an offensive line that has been nothing short of awful and a defense that is vastly overrated when we adjust for their opponents capabilities. Russell Wilson took ANOTHER five sacks against the 49ers last week, despite the fact that Seattle led wire-2-wire. Wilson has now been sacked 31 times this year, by FAR the most sacks any QB in the NFL has taken. That’s bad news against the revitalized Cowboys pass rush with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain back in the lineup. And with Marshawn Lynch averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, a full yard per carry less than last year, Seattle’s offensive line woes are very real, and they’re not likely to go away anytime soon. Secondly, Seattle’s defense isn’t nearly as good as their recent editions. We’ve seen teams run on Seattle, like the Bengals did in their come-from-17 points-behind win over Seattle. We’ve seen teams pass on Seattle, like the Lions did in their near upset on Monday Night Football, and like Carolina did to them when they won SU in Seattle two weeks ago. Their overall numbers are buoyed by the games against Chicago and San Fran, but the ‘eye test’ has shown this defense failing repeatedly against decent offenses; particularly during crunch time. While the Seahawks remain and overvalued commodity (2-4-1 ATS), the Cowboys are on the other end of the value spectrum right now after losing four straight since Tony Romo got hurt. Only one of those losses was non-competitive, and there’s no shame in getting blown out by New England. Last week, with Matt Cassel behind center, the offense looked fully functional for the first time in a month. The Cowboys gained 460 yards on 6.7 yards per play, compared to 289 on 5.7 ypp for the G-men. But Dallas lost and failed to cover the spread thanks to a -4 turnover margin and an ugly special teams breakdown with the game tied in the fourth quarter. That’s why we’re getting such an attractive price to support the Cowboys here, despite their clearly improved performance with Cassel behind center. Casual bettors and pros alike are both reluctant to support a Dallas team that is just 1-5 ATS this season The Cowboys defense has talent; more talent than they’ve had in any recent season. Their offensive line is still elite, the same OL that pushed Seattle around in Seattle when they won SU against the Seahawks last year. RB Darren McFadden is coming off a 152 yard rushing effort. The only real question here is whether we can trust Matt Cassel to avoid throwing three interceptions this week. It’s surely worth noting that two of Cassel’s three picks last week were not on him – his receivers weren’t where they were supposed to be, not unusual with a new QB in any system. His arm strength was fine, his reads were fine and the Cowboys receiving corps is just fine as well, especially if Bryant comes back. Seattle isn’t beating decent teams by margin. In a ‘circle the wagons’ game for the desperate home team, I’m not convinced that Seattle is primed to win this game at all! Take the Cowboys. |
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11-01-15 | Bengals v. Steelers +1 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#264). I don’t trust a 6-0 Bengals team coming off the bye one iota, especially with the early week line showing Cinci as road favorites in Pittsburgh. I do NOT expect this line to hold, there’s urgency here to get the best of the number with the Steelers). Let me start with the anti-Cinci portion of the equation. Cinci has significant ‘fat and happy’ potential here. That’s exactly what happened last year, when their Week 4 bye came after a ‘fat and happy’ 3-0 start to the season. Cinci came out of that bye and laid a complete egg in a statement game, blasted 43-17 by the Pats. They lost at home to Denver following the bye in 2012. In between, in 2013, a Bengals team that averaged 27 points per game was held to 17 against a bad Chargers defense, although they escaped with a tight win over a non-playoff team. In fact, Marvin Lewis has only four wins in 12 tries following a bye during his tenure in Cincinnati, and that’s not counting the Bengals even more woeful showings with extra time to prepare during the playoffs. And despite their 6-0 start, I’ve got real questions as to whether this Bengals team is truly an elite contender. None of those six wins came against an opponent with a winning record – heck, four of them came against teams that are currently in last place in their divisions. The big signature’ win of the bunch came against a struggling Seahawks team; a truly ‘lucky’ win that was as much about Seattle melting down as it was anything Cinci did right. Let’s not forget that the Bengals trailed by 17 points at home heading into the fourth quarter of that game. Cinci is loaded with elite level playmakers, but they still have mistake-prone Andy Dalton at quarterback; a QB who has EARNED our mistrust with numerous dismal efforts in big games throughout his first four years in the NFL. More than one of those dismal efforts has come against this Steelers defense; a stop unit that held Cinci to 17 and 21 points in the two meetings last year. In fact, Cinci hasn’t produced more than 21 points in any game against Pittsburgh in eight previous career starts against them. The markets are very high on Cinci’s defense, but there’s a clear statistical flaw that stands out like a sore thumb – the Bengals have struggled to stop the run. They rank #10 in terms of rushing yards allowed – no red flag there, hence the market respect. But Cinci has allowed a woeful 4.9 yards per CARRY, tied with Washington and New Orleans at 30th in the NFL. Only the Browns and Chargers have been worse. And if there’s one thing this Steelers team is going to do in Ben Roethlisberger’s return to the lineup this week, it’s running Le’Veon Bell down the Bengals collective throats. Pittsburgh’s run defense on a yards per carry basis ranks in the Top 10…. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has said repeatedly that he expects Ben Roethlisberger to suit up at quarterback this week; although the markets haven’t fully adjusted to Big Ben’s return. Compared to Michael Vick or Landry Jones, Roethlisberger is (obviously) an enormous upgrade, especially now that the Steelers have their full complement of skill position talent healthy. When we talk about Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward Bay and Heath Miller, that’s one heck of a pass catching quintet for a QB that has averaged more than ten yards per ATTEMPT while completing 75% of those attempts this season before he got hurt. A healthy Steelers offense is every bit as good, if not better, than a healthy Bengals offense. We’ve got the Steelers fully focused, coming off a poorly played loss at Kansas City; 2-0 SU and ATS coming off a loss this year. We’ve got an underrated Steelers defense that is actually better on a yards per play basis then the Cinci defense, despite facing a much tougher early season schedule – Pittsburgh has faced the Patriots and Cardinals, two teams that are better than anyone Cinci has seen this year. The Steelers have two double digit wins in three tries at home this year, and their lone loss came only via a pair of missed field goals in the latter stages. Let’s lock in on Pittsburgh RIGHT NOW, before this line moves when Big Ben’s return is ‘officially’ confirmed. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Carolina Panthers -3 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#474) There’s quite a bit of debate within the handicapping community as to how good these Panthers really are. The betting markets certainly don’t believe in Carolina; a team that took Under $$ on their season win total throughout the preseason. Bettors were not impressed by the Panthers 4-0 start, because all they beat was bottom feeders: the Jags, Texans, Saints and Bucs in the first four weeks, teams that are a combined 7-16 this year. And even last week’s come-from-behind win against the Seahawks isn’t drawing massive market support – the markets have noted that the Seahawks are a 2-4 team that has blown (or nearly blown) second half leads in each of the last three weeks. So there’s still legitimate debate as to Carolina’s 5-0 start, with many seasoned bettors calling Carolina a fraud. I disagree with that assessment strongly! Carolina has an elite defense, ranked #2 in the NFL in yards per play allowed – only the Broncos have been better. That defense should get pro bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly back in the lineup this week following a concussion related absence. The Panthers also have an elite quarterback in Cam Newton, who led the team on back-2-back 80 yard TD drives on the road with the game on the line and the crowd roaring last Sunday. Despite the lack of top notch WR talent, the Panthers have passed the ball effectively all year, and RB Jonathan Stewart is more than capable of providing balance. Let’s not forget that since their 3-8-1 start last year, the Panthers are 10-1 SU in their last eleven games, the lone loss coming at Seattle in the playoffs last year via a Kam Chancellor 90 yard pick six in the fourth quarter. This is a very good team – borderline elite – that the markets simply don’t respect. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is a long way from being elite, as we clearly saw on Monday Night. Even in a blowout win over the Giants, the Eagles weaknesses were on full display. Sam Bradford has now thrown three interceptions in the end zone over the past two weeks. For the season Bradford has only nine TD passes in six games, and he’s had only one game – a loss at Washington – where his QB rating was above 90. Philly’s defense has been hit or miss, certainly not a consistently trustworthy unit. They’ve won the last two weeks because they’ve faced weak defenses – the Saints and Giants – neither of whom could stop DeMarco Murray on the ground. But Carolina doesn’t give up yards on the ground; a dominant rush defense. Murray had 47 yards in three games prior to his outbursts over the past two weeks. Carolina is holding foes below four yards per rush. If Murray can’t run, the Eagles can’t win relying solely on Bradford’s arm. Let’s enjoy one last winning bet with the Panthers before the betting markets finally start to show them the appropriate level of respect following a win on national TV. Take the Panthers. |
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10-25-15 | Oakland Raiders +4 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 99 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#469) The Raiders are better than the Chargers, but years of dismal Oakland showings and back-2-back ATS losses for Jack Del Rio’s squad prior to their bye has kept Oakland’s power rating deflated. That gives us ample value to jump onboard Oakland here as they take on a Chargers squad that hasn’t exactly been a pointspread machine, particularly in this ‘home chalk’ role. The Chargers have two wins this year. They barely escaped with a win over the hapless Lions in Week 1, and they barely escaped with a win over the almost hapless Browns in Week 4; failing to cover the spread with that tight, three point victory. They closed out last year with four straight ATS losses in the role of the favorite; including a pair of ATS losses in two tight wins over Oakland. The Chargers certainly aren’t much better than last year’s 8-8 squad. The Raiders, on the other hand, have vastly improved. On a yards per play basis, the Chargers rank #31 out of 32 NFL defenses this year – only the Saints are worse. And don’t be fooled for a minute by their supposedly good defensive showing at Green Bay last Sunday. San Diego allowed more than seven yards per rush to the Packers. They allowed more than seven yards per pass. They didn’t force any turnovers, and the Packers had more scoring drives than punts. That same defense couldn’t get a stop with the game on the line against a hapless Michael Vick led Steelers offense the previous week. The Browns marched up and down the field against this D prior to that. Minnesota scored a season high against them the previous week. I think you get my point – teams with no defense don’t make good favorites, especially laying more than a field goal against a hungry divisional rival coming off their bye week. It’s surely worth noting that NFL teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS coming off the bye so far this year (depending on your line for the Bills- Titans game). San Diego’s offense isn’t that great either. Their leading rusher has been held to 55 yards or less five times in their first six games. Their best receiver, by far, Keenan Allen, has a hip flexor injury, not likely to be anywhere near 100% this week. Allen has more than twice as many catches and nearly twice as many receiving yards as any other player on the team; absolutely an impact injury for Philip Rivers security blanket. For a team coming off crushing, last minute losses in each of the past two weeks, their ongoing injury woes certainly don’t help matters. The Raiders have been NFL laughingstocks for more than a decade, but things are clearly, finally looking up in Jack Del Rio’s first year on the job. Oakland has developed a big play passing game with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree providing quick strike potential on every catch. Derek Carr is avoiding interceptions, throwing only three picks on 162 pass attempts. RB Latavius Murray should feast on a Chargers defense that’s allowed a whopping 5.3 yards per rush attempt this year, ranked dead last in the league. The Raiders defense has improved by leaps and bounds from their opening day debacle against the Bengals, holding each of their last three foes to 22 points or less. Oakland is live to win this game. At +4, they’re clearly worthy of Big Ticket status this week! Big Ticket: Take the Raiders. |
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10-25-15 | Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins -4 | 26-44 | Win | 100 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#458) Miami was lined as a nine win team coming into the season, but the talent on hand did not mesh well with the coaching staff on hand, leading to a dismal 1-3 start that included a loss to the hapless Jags and blowout defeats against divisional rivals Buffalo and New York. Head coach Joe Philbin was shown the door, followed by his defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Lo and behold, Miami came out of the bye week with -- by far – their best effort of the season, blowing out the Titans in Tennessee. One blowout win (with extra time to prepare) against a Titans team that is 3-18 SU under Ken Whisenhunt is not enough, by itself, to dramatically alter the Dolphins power rating. That being said, the Dolphins rushed for a season high 180 yards and their defensive pressure created a season high five sacks on Marcus Mariota, four of them coming from Cameron Wake. Those are hugely positive signs for a squad that couldn’t run or rush the passer in any of their first four games. I’m not looking to sell this team short. Wake: “Winning's always fun. And to do it with the guys with all the stuff that's been going on the past two weeks it definitely feels good." Interim head coach Dan Campbell: “Those guys were dying for something like that. It gives you momentum, it gives validity to everything that's being done, and those are the fun ones right? Because now you're up and everybody's having fun and they're playing hard, and it's back to like it was when you were a kid." The betting markets are likely to have a hard time with the Dolphins over the next few weeks. Should Miami be priced like the team they were over the first month of the campaign; a bottom quartile type squad? Of should the Dolphins be priced like the team many bettors thought they would be in August; a top quartile type squad? Obviously, there’s a huge differential between the two, and Miami has shown the capacity to fit into either category. I personally adjusted my Dolphins power rating to where it was prior to Week 1, completely discounting the first four weeks of the season from my personal database. That left me with a personal power rating line that has the Dolphins favored by more than a touchdown against a 2-4 Texans squad that has only beaten hapless Tampa and even more hapless Jacksonville. Houston’s ongoing offensive line issues aren’t likely to get better against the powerful Dolphins front, and the Texans surprisingly weak defense has the potential to get torched by Miami’s balanced attack. The Dolphins are worthy of riding for the next week (or two, or three), as the markets struggle to price them appropriately. Take the Dolphins. |
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10-18-15 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 97 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#267) 1) My clients and I continue our fade of the Seahawks; a team that remains a dramatically overvalued commodity in the betting markets thanks to an offensive line that can’t protect Russell Wilson and a defense that isn’t generating key stops at crucial points of the game. 2) The betting markets are devaluing the Panthers because “they haven’t played anybody yet”. Just because Carolina hasn’t faced a strong foe yet doesn’t mean that they are a weak team! Let’s not forget that Ron Rivera’s squad has won their last eight regular season games dating back to last year. 3) This is absolutely a ‘bet-on’ spot for the Panthers. They’re in playoff revenge for a loss here last year, on the heels of three very tight previous losses to the Seahawks in the last three years. Coming off their bye week, look for Cam Newton and company to make a statement on Sunday. 4) NO URGENCY HERE! Expect this line to continue to drift upwards between now and kickoff. |
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10-11-15 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Detroit Lions | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#467) I want the Cardinals off a poorly played loss, a ‘step-up’ spot for a team that came into their game with St Louis last week a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ following their 3-0 start. Head coach Bruce Arians was furious following last week’s poorly played game at home against the Rams: “You're not going to win many games kicking field goals in the red zone and losing the turnover battle.” Expect significantly better execution on offense for Arizona here as they take a step down in defensive class against Detroit. The Lions are now 0-4 following another ‘kick in the gut’ loss at Seattle on Monday Night; neither confident nor primed for a bounceback here against an elite level foe. Detroit’s successful 11 win campaign last year – one of only two winning seasons they’ve had in the past decade – was predicated on a defense that could control the line of scrimmage and an offense that was good enough to win close games late. That certainly hasn’t been the case this year. Their defense did play fairly well at Seattle on Monday Night. The betting markets are viewing that as a plus for Detroit, not a minus for the Seahawks. My ratings show that Arizona’s offense is head and shoulders better than Seattle’s right now, bad news for Detroit since they aren’t capable of trading points with anybody these days. At 0-4, the Lions season is already done. All the criticisms that head coach Jim Caldwell took when he was the head coach in Indy and Peyton Manning got hurt, leading to a 2-14 SU, 6-10 ATS campaign with the Colts are suddenly valid again now. Caldwell’s team was in a step-up, must win spot on Monday Night. Instead, they looked poorly coached, unable to execute even simple offensive plays for the vast majority of that ballgame. Off a short week and a heart wrenching loss that has doomed their season, I’m not anticipating Caldwell to have his team ready to step up here. That’s bad news against an elite Cardinals team that still isn’t being priced in the markets like a true contender. Take the Cardinals. |
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10-11-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 97 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#466) I’ve won betting against the Seahawks for myself and my clients twice already through the first four weeks of the campaign, and I continue to look at Seattle as a dramatically overvalued commodity here in Week 5. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Lions as ugly underdogs in Seattle on Monday Night, with the numbers updated to reflect current realities : “The betting markets continue to view Seattle as an elite level contender, and last week’s 26-0 win over the Bears on this field left many bettors convinced that the Seahawks are just fine, despite their 0-2 start. I disagree. Let’s not forget that Chicago had zero downfield passing game with no Alshon Jeffrey and with Jimmy Clausen behind center. Despite no fear of any passes travelling longer than ten yards, Seattle was gashed at the line of scrimmage by Matt Forte. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offensive line has been a sieve thusfar, with Russell Wilson taking 18 sacks in the first four games. Seattle’s point totals have been buoyed by three non-offensive TD’s, making them look stronger than they actually are. With only two plays from scrimmage longer than 30 yards all year, this offense isn’t explosive, it’s dink-and-dunk.” Let me make this perfectly clear. The Seahawks are still being priced like an elite contender; a top five NFL team. They are not that good here in 2015, and the intensity of their just concluded homestand -- turning an 0-2 start into a 2-2 current record – has taken the pressure off Pete Carroll and company. But when a team plays as poorly as the Lions did on Monday Night and they still come within a half yard of victory against a supposedly elite Seahawks team, guess what – the Seahawks aren’t elite. And that makes them worthy of a fade again this week on the road facing an opponent that is truly elite. The Bengals complement of skill position talent ranks second to none in the NFL, a team that has the potential for explosive plays on every series. Andy Dalton is playing the best he’s ever played. His 123.0 QB rating stands only behind Aaron Rodgers. With AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill to work with, Dalton’s early season success is likely to continue moving forward. Meanwhile, the Seahawks woeful offensive line is primed to be exposed again by a Cinci defense that ranks in the top quartile of the league in sacks, more than capable of blowing up the line of scrimmage repeatedly. Bottom line – the Seahawks are a ‘fade’ team for me until proven otherwise. Take the Bengals. |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 97 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#462) The betting markets are crashing on Philly just as they are buying the Saints. I think both teams are priced incorrectly as a result, leaving Chip Kelly’s Eagles as a dramatically undervalued commodity as short home favorites on Sunday. First, Philly isn’t that bad, and that’s coming from a guy who bet the Eagles Under 9.5 wins this season, unwilling to buy into the preseason Chip Kelly hype. The Eagles are certainly a .500 caliber team; not a bottom feeder. Sam Bradford and the offense has struggled against divisional foes that are familiar with it from recent meetings, suffering a very bad game against the Cowboys and a very bad first half against the Redskins last week. But their second half rally against Washington as well as this offense has played since the preseason. We also saw signs of Philly’s offensive capability in their second half rally at Atlanta back in Week 1. I don’t want the Eagles laying points against a divisional rival, but the Saints defense is abysmal and their offense isn’t good enough to trade points with a team like Philly. New Orleans has the single worst defense in the NFL on a ‘yards per play’ basis, allowing 6.5 yards per snap. Those defensive numbers look even worse considering that two of their four games have come against Jameis Winston in his first NFL road start and Brandon Weeden, now winless as a starter since 2012. Coordinator Rob Ryan’s schemes have been thoroughly discredited, particularly bad news given the Saints lack of defensive talent and depth on all three units. An explosive, quick strike offense like that of the Eagles is a disaster waiting to happen for this sorry stop unit. To make matters even worse for New Orleans, Drew Brees can’t throw downfield with his bum shoulder. The Saints entire offense against Dallas last Sunday Night was dink and dunk, with only one play longer than 20 yards prior to CJ Spiller’s catch and run TD on the first play of overtime. They were able to win the game only because they were facing a very banged up Dallas team. Philly’s defense is both healthier and better than that out of Cowboys, and the Saints won’t be playing on their comfortable home turf. I’m not expecting anything resembling an offensive explosion from the road underdog here. And this pointspread is remarkably cheap given the circumstance. Philly is a 1-3 team returning home for a ‘save our season’ game. Unlike some other 1-3 teams in similar spots, the Eagles are good enough to turn this around, and we can expect their best effort of the season right here. Meanwhile,the Saints just got off the schnied with that OT win over Dallas, taking away their ‘must win’ edge. New Orleans is much weaker than Philly on both sides of the ball, and they’re heading up to face the wrong team at the wrong time in the wrong venue. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take the Eagles. |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Take Detroit (#277) This game comes down to two very simple factors for me. First, the Lions aren’t that bad. Second, the Seahawks aren’t that good. That makes taking the points with Detroit a clear choice for this bettor on Monday Night Football tonight. 0-3 teams aren’t ‘quit’ teams, not by any stretch of the imagination. We saw the 0-3 Saints play their best game of the season last night. Same story with the 0-3 Bears yesterday afternoon, and the 0-3 Ravens on Thursday Night, a team that played like their hair was on fire. The end result of those three games is irrelevant, even though all three teams won SU and ATS in tight, competitive contests against non-bottom feeder foes. The point is that each of the three other 0-3 teams came to play. None of them got blown out. And, even at 0-3, the Lions haven’t been blown out in any game. They were driving to take the lead in the fourth quarter last week, in Broncos territory, before a turnover sealed their fate. In Week 2, Minnesota didn’t put Detroit away until another late INT. In Week 1, the Lions had a second half lead, and even after blowing it, they came through with a ‘meaningless’ late touchdown, showing effort and execution in a hostile environment. Detroit’s biggest issue this year – poor offensive line play -- is primed for improvement. The OL, in particular, has struggled with their execution. But Detroit averaged more than four yards per rush against arguably the NFL’s best defense last week. The Vikings defense they faced the previous week is also an elite unit. And the quotes coming out of Detroit indicate that the OL is confident they can turn things around. Center Travis Swanson: “Everything that you see is correctable.” OL coach Jeremiah Washburn: “It really has been a technique error here, a technique error there. And it's unfortunate, and it's frustrating for us and for the team as a whole….these guys are going to get stronger and stronger and stronger as they continue facing these things. But, we've just got to stay committed to what we do and learn from our errors and just improve and get stronger, and we've got to do it quickly. It's not, 'Hey, be patient. By December we're going to be great.' No, we've got to be great by Monday." The betting markets continue to view Seattle as an elite level contender, and last week’s 26-0 win over the Bears on this field left many bettors convinced that the Seahawks are just fine, despite their 0-2 start. I disagree. Let’s not forget that Chicago had zero downfield passing game with no Alshon Jeffrey and with Jimmy Clausen behind center. Despite no fear of any passes travelling longer than ten yards, Seattle was gashed at the line of scrimmage by Matt Forte. Don’t be surprised of Ameer Abdullah has a bit of a coming out party tonight against a run defense that simply isn’t as good as advertised. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense isn’t expected to have Marshawn Lynch this evening. Their offensive line has been a sieve thusfar, with Russell Wilson taking 12 sacks in the first three games. Seattle’s point totals have been buoyed by three non-offensive TD’s in their first three games, making them look stronger than they actually are. With only a single play from scrimmage longer than 30 yards all year, this offense isn’t explosive, it’s dink-and-dunk, not the type of offense that makes for a comfortable take in a game they’ll need to win by double digits to cover. Take the Lions. |
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10-04-15 | St Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -100 | 52 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#274) The betting markets just won’t accept Arizona as an elite team, just like last year. In 2014, Arizona got off to a 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS start before a barrage of QB injuries left them without an NFL caliber signal caller. Yet their statistical profile was relatively weak, leading to betting market disrespect – they were underdogs six times during that 9-1 start. And their ‘end of season’ statistical profile looked even worse, because the offense couldn’t move the ball at all once they got down to their third stringers at QB, leading to significant anti-Cardinals sentiment in the offseason betting marketplace. So here we are in 2015. Look at these pointspreads to illustrate my ‘no respect’ argument. They were -2 at home against the Saints, -2 on the road at Chicago and -7 at home against the 49ers last week. This week, they’re only -7 (with reduced juice) against a Rams team that has looked remarkably lifeless in each of the last two weeks. Arizona covered every one of those spread by double digit margins. The wiseguys still hate this team, with the new argument sounding something like this: “Arizona hasn’t played anybody yet and their seven interceptions on defense (most in the NFL) has created a positive turnover margin that can’t continue.” I’m not buying that argument. The argument I am buying is that this is the single most underrated homefield in the NFL. The Cards are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games. That includes a pair of Week 17 losses to the Seahawks and 49ers when both teams were elite. I’m also buying the Bruce Arians covers pointspreads argument, with Arians now an incredible 31-13 ATS as a head coach dating back to his tenure as the interim coach in Indy. Arians doesn’t play safe with a lead, helping us cash an Over ticket in Week 1 as a result of a late TD pass in a situation where 99% of coaches would have run the ball up the gut three times to burn their opponents time outs, then punted. He’s a bet on coach in every sense of the phrase. And this quote is surely worth noting, from future Hall of Fame WR Larry Fitzgerald: “We're not clicking on all cylinders yet. And that's scary to think about, that we can get much better." ‘Zona won’t lack for focus here against their divisional rivals – let’s not forget that it was the game against St Louis last year where Carson Palmer tore his ACL, looking for redemption on Sunday. And the Rams are no good! The Nick Foles led offense has managed just one touchdown in the last two weeks, while notching just 12 and 13 first downs in those two losses. They knocked Ben Roethlisberger out of the game last week, holding the Steelers to just 12 points, and still couldn’t notch the win or cover at home. Their weak link defensively is in the secondary, bad news against Arizona’s downfield passing game. And the Rams defensive strength – their ability to put pressure at the line of scrimmage – is somewhat negated here by the strength of the Cardinals dominant offensive line. Arizona is worth riding….Take the Cardinals. |
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#264) The Redskins looked awful on national TV last Thursday, outplayed from start to finish in a blowout loss against the desperate 0-2 Giants. I missed one key element of the handicap prior to kickoff; the enormous disadvantage for Washington when it came to ‘short turnaround prep time’ with a relatively inexperienced coaching staff vs. the Giants very experienced staff. That’s not the case this week. The Redskins have extra time to prepare for the game; a hungry team coming off a poorly played loss. Washington has looked rock solid in both previous home games on both sides of the football, dominating with their ground game against the Rams and dominating with their defense against the Dolphins, a game they lost on a fourth quarter punt return touchdown. The Redskins are in major revenge for a pair of three point losses they suffered against their divisional rivals last year. And while Washington is clearly an improved team in 2015, the Eagles are not. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up in support of the Redskins with the numbers updated to reflect current realities. “What’s good about Washington? They chose the right quarterback, ending the RG3 drama and locker room divisiveness when Kirk Cousins was named as the starter. They’ve gotten great offensive line play, with the addition of offensive line coach Bill Callahan paying huge dividends already. Jeff Fisher following the Rams loss, talking about the Skins OL “Callahan has done a great job with that offensive line. It’s like Dallas all over again.” Center Travis Frederick: “Ultimate technician, he’s focused on every single detail. He’ll watch every play several times to specifically target every point. ‘Your hand is two inches to the right.’ Or, ‘Your foot came down too early or didn’t step in the right direction.’ He’s all over every point. He demands the best. Certainly helped me.” Washington’s defense has controlled the flow for two straight weeks. Discredited ‘big blitz way too much’ coordinator Jim Haslett was shown the door in the offseason, and new DC Joe Barry has seen his rebuilt stop unit control the line of scrimmage, resulting in opponents converting only 11 of 36 third down chances, a top five mark in the NFL. “ While the Redskins are a notch or two better than the betting markets are giving them credit for being, the Eagles are a notch or two worse. Don’t be fooled for a minute by Philly’s 24-17 win over the Jets last week. Philly’s offense didn’t work AGAIN. Sam Bradford was under siege, just 14-28 for 118 yards, unable to connect downfield. The Eagles managed only 231 total yards, a woeful 3.4 yards per play. Bradford’s QB rating through three games is ranked #29 out of 32 starting QB’s, right behind Jameis Winston. The Eagles rank #31 in the NFL in total yards; not an offense or a pace-of-play that scares opposing defenses right now. Philly is a media-created fraud, an easy team to fade in a game where they have no business as road favorites against a rested, ready and particularly motivated foe. Take the ‘Skins. |
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10-04-15 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins +2 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#252) (VERY EARLY START IN LONDON) Look back at Miami’s 2014 season for a moment, because the parallels are uncanny. Last year, the Dolphins notched a big Week 1 win, routing the Patriots. They followed that up with a disappointing road loss to the Bills in Week 2. In Week 3, the Dolphins returned home and were complete no-shows, blasted as six point home favorites, losing by 19 to the Chiefs, a loss that was every bit as ugly as Miami’s loss to the Bills last week. In Week 4, nobody wanted to bet the Dolphins as they travelled to London, and they closed -4 against the Raiders – the single lowest pointspread of the year for Oakland away from home. Miami dominated that game start-to finish, righting the ship with a 38-14 blowout. So here we are in 2015. The Dolphins won in Week 1. They lost by a field goal Week 2. Last week, they came home and were no-shows at home in Week 3 against the Bills. And now, the Dolphins have to go to London in Week 4, a place where they turned their season around last year. It’s the EXACT same spot as last year and Miami showed us in 2014 that they were capable of taking advantage and upping their game with the chips stacked against them. Look at these two quotes to illustrate the Dolphins previous experience with a London game, compared to the Jets. Dolphins safety Michael Thomas: “We've been here before, so we know what we gotta do, and that's just go back to work, find a way to get this W." Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, talking about a Jets team that has not travelled overseas before: “Just getting our bodies acclimated and everything with the time change will be interesting…. Guys think it's cool to go over there. It will be a unique experience for all of us." These two quotes tell us even more. Jets WR Brandon Marshall: “It's a five-time zone difference, so you have to do a great job of getting your body accustomed to that time zone.” Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin: “People in the organization have done a great job organizing it. You can't make excuses. We're playing the game in London, we knew that. ...We gotta get ready to play." With the bye on deck for next week, this is a HUGE game for Philbin’s future – he’s coaching for his job on Sunday. And Miami, unlike the Jets, is playing for their season. QB Ryan Tannehill: “'Guys are frustrated. We know we're a better team than we've showed. There's no panic, but definitely urgency to get this thing turned around…. We have good energy. We go out there and we're confident in what we're doing. We're just not making enough plays early.” Center Mike Pouncey: “We gotta win next week. Next week is a must-win. If we don't win next week, man, there will be a lot of pissed off guys around here." While the Dolphins are primed to bring their ‘A’ game on Sunday, the Jets are not. New York’s passing game looked anemic without Eric Decker in the lineup last week and Decker’s status for Sunday does not look good. Left guard Willie Colon is out as well, bad news for backup Brian Winters matched up against Ndamukong Suh. Both starting cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are battling injuries as well, and Miami’s three WR sets will force slot corner Buster Skrine on Tannehill’s ‘security blanket’ WR Jarvis Landry. And frankly, even after a loss to Philly last Sunday, the Jets desperation doesn’t match that of the Dolphins this week. Expect a Miami win. Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins. |
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09-27-15 | San Diego Chargers +2.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 33 m | Show | |
Take the San Diego Chargers (#463) I don’t do many very short write-ups, but this is one of them. Fourth quarter of a competitive game (and the pointspread tells us that this should be a competitive game). Who do you want your bet on? Teddy Bridgewater coming off a win, or Philip Rivers coming off a loss? It’s surely worth noting that Rivers ranks #2 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt this year, and that the Chargers have come out of camp ready throughout the Mike McCoy era, 8-1-1 ATS in September. Meanwhile, the Vikings haven’t beaten an opponent with a winning record in the Mike Zimmer era. It’s also worth noting that Melvin Gordon is healthy and contributing for San Diego right now, the type of big play weapon that Adrian Peterson used to be…… Take the Chargers. |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins +4 v. NY Giants | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
Take Washington (#301) Much of my early season NFL success this year has come via the ‘mispriced teams’ concept. It’s easy to understand why early season NFL pointspreads are vulnerable to this theory. When a team was good last year, they were priced in the season win markets like a good team this year. When a team was bad last year, they were priced in the season win markets like a bad team again this year. Those season win numbers translate into early season pointspreads fairly consistently. But following an offseason where numerous teams appear to have morphed significantly from where they were last December, bettors who focus on these morphing teams – being proactive, not reactive -- are catching the betting markets lagging behind. There are a good handful of clear examples from the ‘trending downwards’ standpoint. The Colts, Saints, Seahawks, Ravens and Eagles all stand out in that regard; highly regarded teams in the betting markets despite some clear drop-offs in talent and/or coaching since the end of last year. Bettors who focused on those teams preseason expectations, looking for a Week 2 bounceback, went 0-5 ATS last week. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Washington Redskins, a team that was widely considered to be an absolute bottom feeder heading into the campaign. And the Redskins maintained that hapless reputation even after Week 1; a game where they largely outplayed the Dolphins but ended up losing SU and ATS thanks to a late punt return touchdown. Hence the lack of market respect for the ‘Skins even after they knocked off St Louis last week. And a closer look at the Skins makes it very clear -- a funny thing has happened on the way to a surefire last place finish in the NFC East; a team that was priced at 20:1 to win the division at the Westgate Superbook. This team is MUCH better than projections. There’s absolutely no reason to think it’s a mirage. And the markets aren’t willing to adjust appropriately in support of a team that’s still widely considered to be a bottom feeder. What’s good about Washington? They chose the right quarterback, ending the RG3 drama and locker room divisiveness when Kirk Cousins was named as the starter. They’ve gotten great offensive line play, with the addition of offensive line coach Bill Callahan paying huge dividends already. Jeff Fisher following last week’s loss, talking about the Skins OL “Callahan has done a great job with that offensive line. It’s like Dallas all over again.” Center Travis Frederick: “Ultimate technician, he’s focused on every single detail. He’ll watch every play several times to specifically target every point. ‘Your hand is two inches to the right.’ Or, ‘Your foot came down too early or didn’t step in the right direction.’ He’s all over every point. He demands the best. Certainly helped me.” Two 100 yard rushers against an elite front seven like that of the Rams has this bettor taking notice! And Washington’s defense has controlled the flow for two straight weeks. Discredited ‘big blitz way too much’ coordinator Jim Haslett was shown the door in the offseason, and new DC Joe Barry has seen his rebuilt stop unit dominate the line of scrimmage in each of their first two games, resulting in opponents converting only 7 of 24 third down chances, a top five mark in the NFL. Facing a beat up, struggling Giants offensive line should give Washington’s productive front four another prime opportunity to blow up the line of scrimmage and wreak havoc in the backfield. And make no mistake about it – this is absolutely a statement game for the road team, swept the Giants SU and ATS in each of the last two years. The Giants have blown double digit fourth quarter leads in each of their first two games; not exactly the most confident or well executing team these days. They’re playing without their top playmaking threat on offense (Victor Cruz) and defense (Jason Pierre Paul). There’s not much of a homefield edge in Jersey these days – the G-men have lost five of their last six in SU fashion on this field, a trend worth riding again on Thursday Night. Take the Redskins. |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Take the New York Jets (#289) There’s a school of thought holding sway in the betting markets that because the Colts were lined as a 10.5 win team prior to the season while the Jets were lined in the 7.5 win range, those numbers are still very meaningful. Those same bettors will be talking about the perceived ‘value’ with the Colts at -7, because the lookahead line last week was Indy -9.5. But that argument is missing three key points in my opinion, the combination of which is enough to get me to the betting window in support of the Jets tonight. First, Indy’s season win total wasn’t a measure of how good the Colts actually were supposed to be. Every sharp bettor I talked to over the summer – and I talked to plenty of them -- expressed reservations about the makeup of the Colts roster. In short, this team had all the makings of a paper tiger. Andrew Luck is elite and can win games by himself. The remainder of the Colts roster? Not so much! Indy was priced as a 10.5 win team in the preseason because of their VERY weak schedule, not their talent level. That has left the Colts as something of an overvalued commodity – hence my lack of concern about the line dropping from the ‘lookahead’ numbers last week. Second, the Colts are all banged up, particularly in the secondary. They’re likely be missing a pair of starters in their defensive backfield tonight, with D’Joun Smith already on IR and Greg Toler doubtful. A third member of the secondary, Darius Butler, has been sitting out practices with a hip injury, even though he’s supposed to suit up here. The Colts started a pair of rookies on their defensive line last week as well, and aging pass rushing force Robert Mathis is no sure thing to suit up after missing the opener. This is NOT Indy at full strength on D; not even close; bad news for any favorite of a TD or more. Third, the Jets match up well here. Jets head coach Todd Bowles designed a defense that shut down Andrew Luck when he last faced Indy in 2013 (with Arizona), a 40-11 blowout. The Jets secondary dominated Luck in their lone previous matchup against him, holding the Colts to single digits on the scoreboard and Luck under 200 passing yards. Bowles' defense frustrated Luck with an array of blitzes, limiting him to 163 passing yards. Buffalo’s defense used a similar strategy last week, blitzing on 49% of Luck’s dropbacks, forcing Luck to release the ball before finding his third or fourth option. And it’s surely worth noting that Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has faced Indy’s defense repeatedly in recent seasons during his stints with divisional rivals Houston and Tennessee. All the Colts bettors will be trumping the ‘Indy is 14-1 SU and ATS following a regular season loss with Luck behind center’. That’s a true stat (although the ‘1’ came in Week 2 at home last year, following a Week 1 loss; the same situation that Indy finds themselves in here in 2015). But it’s also a misleading one, because Indy was not widely considered to be a Super Bowl contender in recent seasons -- they weren’t laying inflated prices, like they are here. And Colts bettors certainly won’t be talking about the ongoing rift between Indy head coach Chuck Pagano and upper management, a rift that has a ‘Harbaugh with the 49ers last year’ feel to it already. It’s surely worth noting that the Niners went 1-6-1 ATS as home favorites in their final season under Harbaugh…… Take the Jets. |
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Green Bay (#288) We’ve got two key factors in play that makes this play worthy of Big Ticket status. First, this is the mother of all revenge games for the Packers; truly a circled game on their schedule. And second, Seattle is still being priced like an elite team, despite the fact that there are numerous clear signs that the Seahawks are primed for a serious decline in 2015. Let’s start with the revenge angle. Green Bay was less than five minutes away from the Super Bowl last January, leading 19-7 at Seattle late in the fourth quarter. But a late Seahawks score, followed by an onside kick recovery and another Seahawks score put the game into overtime. A limping, injured Aaron Rodgers never even got the ball in OT, as Seattle took the kick, marched down the field and scored the game winning TD in overtime. This came on the heels of Green Bay’s previous two trips to Seattle. They lost in Week 1 last year, a game where the Packers offensive line was riddled with key injuries. And they lost here on Monday Night Football in the infamous ‘replacement refs’ game, when Seattle was erroneously awarded a TD on the final play of the game to win a game they should have lost. Green Bay most certainly has a statement to make now that they finally get the Seahawks to visit Lambeau Field. From a power rating perspective, these two teams closed out the 2014 season ranked #1 and #2 in the NFC. Neither squad saw their power rating adjusted in any significant way this past offseason, and both entered the new season widely regarded as the best two teams in the conference. There’s only one problem with those ‘hard’ numbers. The Seahawks have all the makings of a team that has declined SIGNIFICANTLY between last year and this year. And there’s a long and storied history of Super Bowl losers suffering major hangovers the following year. Seattle’s in line for both. Let’s start with what we saw last week in St Louis; a game that clearly exposed the Seahawks many flaws. The Seahawks were outgained by 2.1 yards per PLAY against St Louis; not exactly the most explosive offensive team; and a team playing with two rookies making their first career starts on the offensive line. The Seahawks scored a TD on defense and another TD on special teams. They finished +2 in turnovers. And they lost the game outright! That’s a giant red flag! The Seahawks have major offensive line issues, with two new starters and a third starting at a new position. They were repeatedly blown off the line of scrimmage last week. Russell Wilson was under constant pressure; sacked six times. Only one of his passes went for more than 20 yards. Marshawn Lynch couldn’t get into ‘Beast Mode’ without holes to run through. This offense simply isn’t as good as it was last year. The defense is even more suspect. First they lost coordinator Gus Bradley to the Jaguars. Then they lost his replacement, Dan Quinn, to the Falcons. Their loaded defense has lost key depth on all three units, unable to pay market salaries due to salary cap constraints. Pro bowl safety Kam Chancellor is still holding out. Five different Rams receivers caught passes of longer than 20 yards last week, and that was against Nick Foles. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers is poised to do in this ultimate revenge spot! Big Ticket: Take the Packers. |
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09-20-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. New Orleans Saints | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#263) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against the Saints defense last week, using the total as the preferred method of attack. This week, betting against the Saints as a side is the preferred choice, because New Orleans has no business as double digit favorites against a divisional rival who has played them extremely tough in recent meetings. Last year’s two matchups were decided in OT and by a field goal – 2-14 Tampa Bay hung tough both times. I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. First, the Bucs dismal showing at home against the Titans last week has given us ample extra value here. Lovie Smith, talking about Tampa’s poor effort. “It’s just one game. The season isn’t made on it. There’s a lot of football left to go so you need to keep that in perspective. If everything was fine right now, maybe we’re feeling better right now, but I think it’s not all bad to have more of a sense of urgency early on in the football season. There are some things we need to get corrected. As we look at the video, these aren’t things that can’t be corrected. That’s when it would really be bad. That isn’t the case right now…. We are 0-1 and we are disappointed about how we played the first game. There’s no more than that. Number two is up…. As I told the football team, it does count as one loss only. There are a lot of other teams that are disappointed with one week into the season. One disappointing game does not define our season. We won’t let it. This isn’t an old Buc team of the past. This is our 2015 version of the Buccaneers, and we are very disappointed in how we played for one game.” In other words, Tampa’s not hopeless. The Bucs D got torched by rookie Marcus Mariota last week, but they had no film on Mariota and suffered from several ‘Week 1 blown coverage’ type of mistakes. But Lovie Smith’s Cover-2 has routinely given Drew Brees problems over the years. In seven previous matchups against a Smith defense, Drew Brees has thrown multiple interceptions five times, with a 13-TD to 13 INT ratio and a 75.6 passer rating. Those certainly aren’t ‘elite, double digit favorite’ type numbers. But perhaps more than any other factor, this is a bet AGAINST the Saints defense and the Saints purported home field edge. This team finished 31st in the NFL in total defense last year. They’re missing three defensive starters from their secondary, a unit already decimated with injuries. The Saints had no sacks, created no turnovers and allowed an NFL worst (by far) 7.5 yards per play in their opener last week. I’m expecting Jameis Winston and the bevy of big play receivers for Tampa to keep the Bucs in this game from start to finish. And with New Orleans riding an 0-5 SU run at home (losing every time as a home favorite, a combined -31.5 in games that they lost by a combined 74 points, getting beaten ATS by an AVERAGE of three TD’s per game), I have no hesitation pulling the trigger on this live underdog. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-13-15 | Tennessee Titans +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 13 m | Show | |
Take the Tennessee Titans (#481) I could do this write-up in a single sentence; four words to be exact: ‘Tampa can’t be laying’. Because that’s the crux of this bet. Couple that with a complete lack of market respect for the Titans and Tennessee becomes a clear choice as a live underdog here in Week 1; a game I expect them to win. Tampa has the youngest offense in the NFL, expected to start five offensive players who are 22 years old or younger. To put that in perspective, in the history of the NFL since the 1970 merger, no team has EVER opened the season with five players on offense who are 22 years old or younger. Two of those youngsters are rookie linemen tasked with protecting Jameis Winston in his NFL debut. I’m not expecting it to go well, especially considering the fact that they’ll be facing a confusing array of Dick LeBeau blitzes. It’s surely worth noting that the Titans 3-4 defense is something that Winston has very limited experience against; a major concern for Lovie Smith and his staff in practice all week. And the preseason power rating numbers that the markets have for Tennessee are flat out wrong. The Titans haven’t been a great team in recent years, but they’ve never been a disaster either, until last year. Tennessee is being priced like the 2-14 team they were in 2014, but last year was clearly an aberration for a squad that hadn’t won fewer than six games in the previous decade. This team tanked down the stretch in Ken Whisenhunt’s first year, and everything that could go wrong basically did go wrong. But the Titans looked sharp in August, wiping away some of the stink from the 2014 campaign. Mariota looked far more prepared for Week 1 than Winston did throughout the course of the preseason – it’s not like Lovie Smith and his staff have a long track record of prepping young QB’s for excellence. And we certainly shouldn’t forget that one of the Titans two wins last year came on opening day, when Whisenhunt had them ready to roll in a 16 point win as road underdogs in Kansas City. Take the Titans. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#315) When these two teams met last month, Carolina was the better team on the field but Atlanta escaped with a two point road victory. When they met last December, the Panthers escaped with a one point win of their own. The two meetings prior to that were both double digit Carolina wins. The first meeting in 2012 was a two point Falcons victory. Bottom line: Atlanta hasn’t beaten Carolina by three or more points in any of the last five meetings dating back to 2011. This isn’t unusual for the Falcons – they’ve been struggling to win games by margin consistently. Mike Smith’s squad has been favored six times this year. The only pointspread covers that they’ve been able to notch in those six tries have come against 2-13 Tampa Bay. That includes three outright losses as chalk, including two right here on this field -- to lowly Chicago and lowly Cleveland. This team can’t be laying more than a field goal, especially against an opponent that is every bit as good as they are. In fact, Carolina is much, much better than Atlanta on defense. The Falcons rank #32 in the NFL in numerous defensive categories, despite facing a relatively weak schedule loaded with opponents that had struggling or weak quarterbacks. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, they don’t generate much QB pressure and they don’t create turnovers. The Falcons are 1-4 SU in their last five at home, in large part, due to these defensive difficulties. And with Mike Smith making the key in-game decisions, we can count on at least one or two truly bumbling calls from the Falcons bumbling head coach. Ron Rivera has made more than his fair share of bumbling decisions as the Panthers head man, but at least he has shown signs of learning from his mistakes. And his Carolina teams have gotten better as the season has progressed in every year since he got the job. The Panthers are 14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS in December games during the Rivera era. The only team with a better December record during that span? Bill Belichick’s Patriots! Rivera’s quote speaks volumes about his team’s late season success: “I think a lot of it has to do with things that we do at the end of the year with our players and our players doing the extra time that they put in, I think helps them. Along the line there’s probably something we can learn from what we do in December." The Panthers have won three straight, by far their best stretch of football all year; holding the Saints, Bucs and Browns to a combined total of 40 points. In their last two games, they’ve dominated the box scores, including a 55-23 edge in first downs. Carolina is every bit as good as Atlanta, if not better, even though the Falcons have the ‘flashier’ offensive skill position talent. I’m expecting the outright upset, but catching more than a field goal makes this play truly worthy of Big Ticket status! Big Ticket: Take the Panthers. |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota (#107) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against the Dolphins in New England last week, a game where they trailed by only one at halftime, yet lost by four touchdowns. Frankly, I’m expecting more of the same from Miami this week, a team who’s current power rating numbers (and season long stats) are vastly inflated compared to their current reality. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “The Dolphins defense is all worn down. Miami’s season long defensive numbers look good against the run, allowing a modest 4.3 yards per carry. But in this case, full season numbers don’t tell the true story. Four weeks ago, CJ Anderson had 27 carries for 167 yards against this Dolphins defense, on a day where the Broncos had 35 rush attempts. The following week, on Monday Night Football against the Jets, Miami allowed Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to run for 167 yards against them on 33 carries in a game where the Dolphins defense faced 49 rushing attempts. Two weeks ago, against Baltimore, the Ravens outscored the Dolphins 21-3 in the second half (three 75+ yard TD drives), relying heavily on 31 rushes for 183 yards. Whatever the season long numbers say, they are not current realities. Right now, Miami’s defense, as a unit, is gassed. It’s surely worth noting that their strong pass rush wilted against the Ravens as well, sacking Joe Flacco only once in 34 tries, another indication that this ‘D’ is wearing down.” Miami gave up another 41 points last week, wilting in the second half for the second consecutive week. The Pats second half drive chart looked like this: touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. No punts. No third down stops. No sacks. Considering the fact that Miami’s offense is wilting as well (16 points or less in each of the last three weeks), that’s certainly not good news for a team that needs to win this game by a TD or more to cover the spread. With head coach Joe Philbin looking more and more like he’s going to get fired, and QB Ryan Tannehill probably joining him on the bus out of town, the Dolphins simply have no business in this pointspread range at this stage of the campaign. Very quietly, waaaaaaayyyy underneath the radar, the Minnesota Vikings have been the single best pointspread team in football for the last two months, 7-1 ATS in their last eight tries. Teddy Bridgewater has emerged as the clear leader among the 2014 QB draft class. Matt Asiata is grinding out yards on the ground. Mike Zimmer’s defense has been consistently solid, allowing 17 or less in six of their last nine while averaging less than 19 points per game allowed during that span. If the Dolphins manage to win – and that’s a big ‘if’ – I don’t expect it to come by any sort of margin. Big Ticket: Take the Vikings. |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Take New Orleans (#333) Both of these teams played truly dismal football last week. Only one of the two appears capable of bouncing back on Monday Night Football – the road favorite. Chicago doesn’t have much of a homefield edge at Soldier Field these days, winning in SU fashion only twice in six tries at home while failing to cover the spread in any of their four defeats. They covered only one spread in eight games on this field last year. In the most recent of their two home wins, the Bears won despite getting outgained by lowly Tampa Bay by more than 160 yards. The other win came against the Vikings and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater; a team that hasn’t scored more than 14 points in regulation on the road since Bridgewater took over the starting job. Bears head coach Marc Trestman isn’t likely to be back. QB Jay Cutler has only one interception-free ballgame in his last seven outings and he just lost his favorite target, Brandon Marshall, to a season ending injury. The Bears defense has shown a remarkable amount of ‘quit’; allowing 55, 51, 41 and 34 in their last four defeats. The talent is there, but the attitude is not; a downtrodden team that has most assuredly NOT responded well to adversity in recent weeks. New Orleans won on the road comfortably at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. They won their previous road game, at Carolina, in blowout fashion and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a last second loss at Detroit prior to that; a team playing their best football in hostile environments these days. It’s expected to be relatively mild in Chicago this evening, with temperatures in the 40’s, good news for a dome team playing outdoors in December. But the Saints suffered through a complete no-show at home last week to the Panthers and longtime head coach Sean Payton was not amused. Payton essentially read his team the riot act following that blowout loss, making cuts, benching veterans and letting it be known that New Orleans was still very live to win the division and make a postseason run, despite their poor record. Bottom line: I trust Payton’s ability to get his team to buy in to his message right now much more than I trust Trestman to do the same with his charges. Take New Orleans. |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England (#316) Back in Week 1, when the Dolphins beat the Patriots, they simply wore down New England’s defense in the September heat of Miami. A 20-10 Patriots lead at halftime ended with a 23-0 Dolphins second half runout, as the Dolphins dominated the game on the ground: 35 carries for 191 yards from Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller. New England’s defense wasn’t capable of standing up to the test in 90 degree weather. The situation is very much reversed for the December rematch in New England. While gametime temperatures are expected to be above freezing, at this stage of the season, it’s the Dolphins defense that is all worn down. Miami’s season long defensive numbers look good against the run, allowing a modest 4.3 yards per carry. But in this case, full season numbers don’t tell the true story. Three weeks ago, CJ Anderson had 27 carries for 167 yards against this Dolphins defense, on a day where the Broncos had 35 rush attempts. The following week, on Monday Night Football against the Jets, Miami allowed Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to run for 167 yards against them on 33 carries in a game where the Dolphins defense faced 49 rushing attempts. Last week against Baltimore, the Ravens outscored the Dolphins 21-3 in the second half (three 75+ yard TD drives), relying heavily on 31 rushes for 183 yards. Whatever the season long numbers say, they are not current realities. Right now, Miami’s defense, as a unit, is gassed. It’s surely worth noting that their strong pass rush wilted last week as well, sacking Joe Flacco only once in 34 tries, another indication that this ‘D’ is wearing down. That’s bad news against the revenge minded Patriots, fighting for homefield edge throughout the playoffs. Let’s not forget – Bill Belichick certainly won’t – that the Dolphins upset the Patriots in Miami last December, owning a rare two game winning streak against New England and ensuring maximum focus for the home favorite. In a series that has seen the Dolphins lose by double digit margins on three of their last four trips to New England, that maximum focus really matters! The Patriots have blown out the Lions, Broncos and Bears in their last three home games; all victories by three TD’s or more. The Pats have much more offensive versatility now than they did back in September; clearly evidenced by their 44 rushes for 246 yard performance in a blowout win at Indy (dominating the game on the ground) immediately followed by a Tom Brady 53 pass attempt game the following week in a blowout win against the Lions. I’m not expecting this tired, worn down Dolphins defense to be able to offer much resistance. To make matters even worse for Miami, their offense has tanked the last two weeks thanks to an overachieving offensive line coming back to earth; a team that isn’t running the football effectively and a passing game that’s coming up very short in the ‘big play’ department. Throw in a cluster injury problem in the secondary and at linebacker and this game has ‘blowout’ written all over it! Big Ticket: Take the Patriots. |
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