For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 40 m | Show | |
Take New England (#102) I have no strong opinion on the total for the Super Bowl. I do, however, have an opinion on the side; betting on the Patriots in a game I expect them to win. There is a case to be made for Philadelphia. Super Bowl Favorites have not done well, covering only four pointspreads in the last 16 Super Bowls, one of which came in OT. Philly has the better statistical defense and they certainly don’t have an overall talent deficit against New England. And chalk has NOT been the way to go in any previous New England Super Bowl in the modern era, with the dog going 6-0 ATS in regulation in Patriots Super Bowls (their win over the Seahawks came priced at pick ‘em). I can understand the case for Philly, but I don’t agree with it. The case for New England is a good notch or two stronger! Let me start with this. The most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champs, the dynasty team – has been consistently UNDER-valued in the betting marketplace. Since the start of the 2016 campaign, the Pats are a ridiculous 28-9 ATS, cashing one winning bet after the next. How good has Belichick been from a pointspread perspective? How about this doozy --- ZERO losing ATS seasons over the last ten years, despite the fact that they’ve been a ‘public’ team the entire time! How does this happen & why is the ‘sharp’ money fading New England week after week? Simple – the wiseguys are fixated with statistics, and the Patriots statistics aren’t elite. New England gives up yardage in bunches on defense – they’ve done it all year long. Philly has the superior defensive stats, for sure. But New England’s defensive stats don’t tell the true story. Their elite special teams force teams onto long fields, allowing them to gain extra yardage on drive after drive. Their red zone defense is top notch, holding teams to field goal tries. And, frankly, the Pats defensive stats have been lying since October – they were awful for the first four games of the season, numbers that still have a significant impact on their overall stats here in FEBRUARY! That’s not the only pro-Patriots piece of the equation. We’ve got the classic Super Bowl ‘value’ situation, with one team coming in off a near perfect game while the other is coming in off a non-covering struggle. Teams off a blowout vs. teams off a non-cover is a simple handicap – the betting public remembers what they just saw, leaving value on the other side. And that betting public also remembers favorites in previous Patriots Super Bowls going 0-6 ATS in regulation (the Seahawks Super Bowl was a pick ‘em). Strength of schedule matters too. My numbers are very clear on this one. Based on MY power rating numbers the week of the game (not end of the season cumulative numbers), the Eagles faced the single weakest schedule of any playoff team; getting the right team at the right time over and over again. New England in the Super Bowl cannot be considered the ‘right team at the right time’….. Nick Foles couldn’t move the football against the Raiders, Cowboys or Falcons, as the Eagles scored a grand total of 34 points in their three games prior to the NFC Championship. Then against the Vikings, Foles had a near perfect game. I’m expecting ‘regular’ Foles in a game of this magnitude away from home, not ‘best QB in the NFL’ Foles like we saw against Minnesota. Last, but not least, experience matters. The Super Bowl is a unique animal – endless hype and distractions leading up to the game, a truly endless pregame that leaves players without adrenaline by kickoff, and a halftime show so long that Bill Belichick had his team sit for 40 minutes in practice this week just to get the feel for how long it was! A team that played in the big game last year has a legitimate edge against a team that didn’t. When we’re talking about seven previous Super Bowl trips for the Pats in the modern era compared to seven combined trips to the Super Bowl for the entirety of the Eagles roster, that matters. Potentially, it matters a lot! Pats by a TD or more. Take New England. |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota – Philadelphia UNDER (#313-314) You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure this one out. We’ve got two backup quarterbacks facing off against two elite defenses with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Both coaches are well aware that this game is about avoiding key mistakes every bit as much (if not more) than it is about making big plays. Both teams have excellent kickers and excellent red zone defensive statistics. Quite frankly, I’m expecting a field goal fest! Minnesota suffered a key injury on their offensive line last week, losing starting guard Nick Easton. That means Mike Remmers will shift inside to guard this week and undrafted second year pro Rashod Hill will take over at right tackle. That’s bad news against Philly’s deep, stout defensive front with the likes of Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Fletcher Cox, Tim Jernigan, Chris Long, Beau Allen and Derek Barnettt primed to rotate in and out of the lineup all evening long. Adam Thielen has been a true difference maker for the Minnesota offense all year, leading the team (by a wide margin) in targets, catches, receiving yards, first down receptions and 20+ yard receptions. He’s hurt (lower back), very questionable for Sunday’s game. Even if he plays, I’m not convinced he’ll be fully effective. QB Case Keenum goes from inside the dome to outside. And, after Keenum nearly blew the game last week, with his top receiver limited or out, missing a key pass blocker from the offensive line, I’m expecting a run heavy approach from the Vikings offense this week. Let’s not forget that in two previous games against Top 10 defenses on the road this season, Keenum struggled mightily in both contests. Career journeymen don’t become QB studs overnight. Based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, Philly’s defense ranks in the top quartile of the NFL against the run, against the pass and overall. They’ve been nothing short of outstanding in the red zone in recent weeks, classic Jim Schwartz; winning the game last week thanks to a late red zone stop. Vikings kicker Kai Forbath is a legit weapon. I expect him to get his fair share of opportunities in a game where field goals are likely to be our friends. Minnesota’s defense grades out even better than Philly’s; #2 overall and Top 5 against both the run and the pass. The Vikings also finished the season with the #2 red zone defense in the NFL, holding foes out of the end zone nearly 57% of the time. Nick Foles (based on MY eye test) appears to be the weaker of the two backup QB’s in this game, and in his only previous game against a quality defense – last week – the Eagles gained only 334 total yards and were held to three field goals and a single touchdown. The fact that they won the game playing that way gives me confidence that we’ll see a similar gameplan this week. First team to 20 wins…..Big Ticket: Take the UNDER |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 45.5 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – New Orleans OVER (#307-308) For an extended stretch this season, the Saints defense was a major story, one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. This defense ranked #31 in the NFL last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. This year, they finished with a #8 ranking, and they spent the better part of two months pretty much dominating as they won eight straight mid-season games. That was then, this is now. The Saints defense has been riddled with key injuries down the stretch. They’ve lost their defensive playcaller, LB AJ Klein. They’ve lost arguably their top playmaker in the secondary, safety Kenny Vaccaro. And they’ve lost pass rushing force and run stuffer Alex Okafor off their defensive line. The normal, natural result of those defensive injuries has been a declining defense. In their last two games – both intense, playoff atmosphere contests – the Saints have allowed 868 yards and a truly awful 21-35 on third down conversions against a Bucs team just playing out the string and a Panthers team with the weakest cast of receivers for any playoff team. Had Carolina been able to execute in the red zone with those limited receivers, the Saints season would already be over. And it’s surely worth noting that the New Orleans defense has been on the field for a whopping 152 snaps over the past two weeks; anything but fresh here. Minnesota can execute in the red zone (Top 10 in TD percentage); a dramatically underrated offense for most of the season. Plain and simple -- Case Keenum doesn’t attract much enthusiasm from the betting markets, a big part of the reason why Minnesota was the single best pointspread team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, too, is excellent in the red zone thanks to their offensive balance – an elite running game and an elite QB are a hard combo to stop, and I have no hesitation betting ON the Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram trio to score some points. When the Saints played here back in Week 1, they marched the ball up and down the field, but they only converted on one of their five red zone opportunities. The Vikings, too, failed repeatedly in the red zone, notching only three TD’s on six tries. The game STILL cashed Over bets. Expect better red zone execution this time around, leading to another Over as the Vikings and Saints collide. Take the Over. |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -112 | 97 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#306) Here a link to the 18-0 angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two from recent seasons. And, of course, my clients and I cashed a winner betting against these same Jaguars last week using this same angle, despite the fact that the Bills made numerous crucial mistakes and didn’t move the football at all. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up, loaded with anti-Jacksonville fodder. “Based on my power rating numbers for the week the games were played, the Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. That’s bad news when it comes to playoff time. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. “The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). “This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona.” Blake Bortles is NOT a QB I can trust in a hostile road environment against a strong, playoff tested foe. The Jags were at home against the Bills last week and netted just 75 yards on Blake Bortles 25 drop-backs, not counting scrambles. In fact, on all plays OTHER than Bortles scrambles at home against the Bills, Jacksonville averaged just 2.8 yards per snap. Those are most assuredly NOT confidence inducing numbers. And make no mistake about it – the Steelers still remember the Jags coming into Heinz Field earlier in the season, intercepting five Ben Roethlisberger passes (two of them pick sixes) in a three touchdown win for the road team; the low point of the season for Pittsburgh. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt: “You know how we turn it up in the playoff games. The intensity level rises. People are more focused on the task at hand.” And Mike Tomlin knows what’s coming, the type of game where Pittsburgh’s gameplan is very clear: “They have as clearly a defined a mode of operation as anyone in this (playoff) field in terms of how they play. They run the ball. They control the clock. They have corresponding play action passes. They play formidable defense. They create turnovers. And that's how games unfold for them.” Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t healthy or in rhythm when these teams met in October. This time around, they’re pretty darn health. Antonio Brown looks good to go off a full practice participation on Tuesday. JuJu Smith Shuster is coming off a nine catch, 143 yard performance in the season finale. Martavis Bryant, too, is in stellar current form, and Le’Veon Bell is fully healthy off two weeks sitting. The Jags defense ruled the day in the first meeting, but I expect the rematch to be very, very different. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
|||||||
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#302) There’s a reason that we haven’t seen the #1 seed as a Divisional Round home underdog EVER in the HISTORY of the NFL Playoffs. And to see Atlanta laying a full -3 here is a pointspread that is out of whack with my current numbers. Let’s start with two basic facts: The Falcons aren’t as good this year compared to last year AND this Falcons team is anything BUT fresh heading into this matchup. Last year, Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL in virtually every meaningful category. With basically the same personnel back this season, under Steve Sarkisian’s tutelage, the Falcons declined by 187 points scored this season – more than 12 points per game less than last year. Their yards per play dropped from 6.7 to 5.8. Last week, they converted on only one of eight tries at 3rd and 6 or longer, but a litany of Rams special teams mistakes early left Atlanta in ‘play with the lead’ territory. This week, I’m not so sure they’ll ever have a lead to play with! And the Falcons are anything but ‘rested and ready’ here off their West Coast game last week. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons have been in ‘playoff intensity’ mode every time – a short week off a Monday Night game at New Orleans, then Carolina at home, then their playoff opener last week in LA against the Rams. The Eagles over that same cycle? Home games vs. the Raiders and Cowboys (with many starters sitting against Dallas), then a bye week. Clearly, we should expect the home underdog will be better physically and mentally prepared. Nick Foles lit up the Rams after Carson Wentz got hurt; then threw four TD passes against the Giants the following week. But his last two starts were both downright ugly. But Foles grew up in Texas and went to school at Arizona – he did not fare well in the frigid conditions in Philly for their games against the Raiders and Cowboys to close out the regular season. But the weather forecast for Saturday’s game has temperatures above 40 degrees; MUCH warmer than it’s been in any recent Eagles home game. I’ll call it ‘Foles’ weather, especially with Philly facing off against a dome team. Last, but not least, let’s remember to give the Eagles defense proper credit. Jim Schwartz’s stop unit ranked in the top quartile of the NFL against both the run and the pass, based on Football Outsiders advanced metric stats. Those aren’t the type of defensive numbers that merit Philly as a home dog for this matchup – even with Foles behind center, Philly is the better of these two teams! Take the Eagles. |
|||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#151) I’m going to make this short and sweet. I’m betting on Alabama because I damn well don’t want to bet against them! Nick Saban’s track record against his former assistants borders on ridiculous. Jimbo Fisher, Mark Dantonio, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Derek Dooley have combined to face their former mentors 11 times. Saban’s Crimson Tide are 11-0 SU in those games, winning by a combined margin of 427-111, an average margin of 43-11. And yes, that includes plenty of elite competition. When a QB (Jalen Hurts) keeps the picture of himself walking off the field as a loser in last year’s title game as his cell phone screen saver for the next year, it’s meaningful – Alabama has something to prove, a ‘mission’ team. Alabama expects to be here every year. And the fact that they’ve been here in each of the last three seasons is meaningful as well, a team that is very comfortable with the extra spotlight that shines on them at this stage of the campaign. With the most elite coaching staff in college football, I have no interest in fading the team with the most talented roster out here. All of those #1 ranked recruiting classes for Saban in Tuscaloosa matter! I’ve been very impressed with Bulldogs frosh QB Jake Fromm, but he’s a frosh QB playing for a national title. Alabama’s run defense is no joke, even against the likes of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel – Fromm’s going to have to make plays to win this game. And Fromm was not at his best away from home against quality defenses, as evidenced by their 40-17 loss at Auburn and even in their 20-19 win at Notre Dame. The Bulldogs have been playing from ahead consistently since that loss at Auburn. In a game where they’ll likely have to play from behind at some point, I don’t trust their young QB to avoid the type of back-breaking mistakes that Alabama feasts on. Roooooooollll Tide. Take Alabama |
|||||||
01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Buffalo (#105) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. The Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. Buffalo faced the second hardest schedule (according to my numbers, tied with Carolina) based on my power rating number for their opponents on the week each game was played. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. I understand that Buffalo is a flawed football team. I also understand that Blake Bortles has no business laying more than a touchdown in a playoff game! The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona. This is NOT a QB I can trust in this pointspread range against a playoff opponent, period. Buffalo is flawed, and RB LeSean McCoy is banged up – hence the pointspread of more than a TD. But the Bills have won four of their last six overall – the only two losses coming against the Patriots – they’ve EARNED this playoff spot. The Bills have shown plenty of mettle on the highway, including SU wins as an underdog at Atlanta and Kansas City, as well as a wire-2-wire cover at Carolina. In their first playoff game of the 21st century, don’t expect the Bills to go down without a fight. Take the Bills. |
|||||||
01-06-18 | Falcons +6.5 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#103) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. My numbers show Atlanta as having faced the single toughest slate of opponents of any postseason team. LA? Not so much! I understand that Wade Phillips is an elite defensive coordinator, while Steve Sarkisian has had issues as a playcaller for the Falcons this season. But I also know that the Rams have zero playoff experience – Sean McVay hasn’t won a playoff game even as an assistant, neither has Jared Goff, Todd Gurley or any of LA’s skill position talent. The Falcons went to the Super Bowl last year and return the corps of that roster – proven moneymakers when the stakes rise in January. Dan Quinn in the playoffs (not counting neutral site Super Bowls) has gone 6-0 SU as the head coach or defensive coordinator. The Falcons have faced the Panthers twice, the Saints twice, Seattle, Dallas, New England and Minnesota over the course of their final 11 games, truly battle tested. They’ve gone 6-2 SU and ATS down the stretch, moneymakers! And it’s surely worth noting that this team almost never loses contact, suffering only one loss in the last two seasons by more than ten points (at New England). LA might win this, but don’t expect it to come easy. Take the Falcons. |
|||||||
01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | 24-6 | Loss | -103 | 104 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#274) Clemson has been an underdog in each of their last seven bowl games in the Dabo Swinney era. They are 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in those ballgames, beating the spread by more than 120 points in the process, including outright upsets against the likes of LSU, Ohio State (twice), Oklahoma (twice) and the same Alabama team they’ll face on New Year’s Night. That’s a pretty impressive track record! if we look just at the ‘extra time to prepare’ bowl games over the last three seasons, it’s a combined victory margin of 108-23….all as underdogs against elite foes. Clemson has faced Alabama for the national title in each of the last two seasons. The combined result of those two games? Alabama by one point on the scoreboard, Clemson by more than 200 yards in the box scores. In short, they were pretty even, and at +3, I’m generally interested in matchups that are ‘pretty even’. I’m well aware that Deshaun Watson was a huge piece of the equation for Clemson's win last year or cover the year before, and Kelly Bryant is no DeShaun Watson. But Clemson’s defense is at elite as it gets, ranked among the Top 14 in the country in total defense, scoring defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense. Alabama’s defense continues to be challenged by mobile QB’s — a consistent problem for this squad in recent years -- and Nick Saban’s reputation is carrying way too much weight considering Swinney’s remarkable track record. Alabama’s fifth year seniors are just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in bowl games — perhaps Saban’s reputation is outshining the reality at this stage of his coaching career. Alabama’s offense wasn’t as good this year, lacking a second playmaker on the other side from Calvin Ridley. In fact, nobody else on the team caught more than 14 passes all year, and the Tide were not seriously threatened in the vast majority of their games, playing from ahead. Clemson has plenty of experience in tight, competitive contests, finding ways to win in the fourth quarter. Alabama played only three competitive games all year (0-3 ATS in those contests), without that same requisite level of confidence when it comes to pulling out tight games during crunch time. This was not a banner year for the SEC, and yet ‘Bama was overvalued all year, unable to cover lofty numbers. Their four ATS covers this year al came against disappointments: Florida State, Vandy, Ole Miss and Tennessee, not exactly a group of overachievers. My goal here is not to criticize Alabama — of course they’re elite. So is Clemson, and it’s likely to take another Dabo trip to the title game to prove that to the betting marketplace. Take Clemson. |
|||||||
01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -9.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#268) Two years ago, UCF went 0-12. Last year, they were 6-7. Now, they’re being asked to hang within single digits of a team that was one win away from the college football playoffs, despite the fact that their head coach is trying to work two jobs at once, recruiting and hiring staff at Nebraska while doing his best to get this squad to compete with an elite foe. I’m not buying that the Knights are ready to make that jump. Why was UCF undefeated this year? Simple — their Week 2 game against Georgia Tech got cancelled by Hurricane Irma. They were underdogs only once all year — at 4-8 Maryland, which tells you where this team was power rated before they started pounding patsies. In their two ‘signature’ wins against USF and Memphis to close out the regular season — both at home — this Knights defense allowed 97 points and more than 1400 yards. UCF’s star quarterback is 5-11 and weighs less than 180 pounds; not a QB I trust to make plays all day against an elite SEC defense. McKenzie Milton put up huge numbers…but not against teams of this caliber. And UCF has given Auburn plenty of bulletin board material like this, from their leading rusher Adrian Killins with his 762 rushing yards this season: “Auburn hasn’t seen any speed like we have here. So I would say they’re in for a rude awakening, because UCF football, we’re UCF fast and UCF fierce”. Killing obviously didn’t look at Auburn’s schedule this year. This team faced Alabama, Georgia (twice), Clemson, LSU and Mississippi State this year. That’s six games against teams ranked in the Top 12 nationally on defense. Those teams ALL have far more ‘speed like we have here’ at UCF. And despite facing those elite defenses again and again, the Tigers still put up huge numbers running Gus Malzahn’s offense. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread, and it’s very difficult for me to envision the Knights hanging tough against a focused juggernaut like the Tigers. Take Auburn
|
|||||||
01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#266) Michigan closed out the regular season with back-2-back losses against Wisconsin and Ohio State. They were blown out at Penn State and managed only ten points in a home loss to Michigan State. In short, the four best teams that Michigan faced all beat them. Make no mistake about it — South Carolina is not one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season. And the Wolverines are primed to look very different on the offensive side of the football, where they’ve struggled all year — when the Outback Bowl kicks off on New Year’s Day. Let me start with the Gamecocks offense. Their returning QB Jake Bentley suffered declines in every category in his second year as the starter — yards per pass down, turnovers up, passer rating down. The issue wasn’t just Bentley — South Carolina’s leading receiver didn’t even average 12 yards per catch and their leading rusher gained only 517 yards on the ground. Plain and simple — the Gamecocks offense lacks playmakers. That’s why they were completely shut down against Georgia and Clemson, held to 10 points and less than 275 yards in each of those two contests. Michigan’s defense can be mentioned in the same breath as Clemson’s or Georgia’s stop unit. The Wolverines finished the regular season ranked #3 in college football in Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense and Third Down Defense, an impressive trifecta. Expect Gamecocks points to be few and far between in this one. The Wolverines biggest issue all year has been their offense, most notably their quarterback play. Wilson Speight was nothing more than a game manager before he got hurt. John O’Korn had serious accuracy problems, throwing three times as many interceptions as touchdowns. The only QB that showed any promise was the frosh, Brandon Peters, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t play in the second half at Wisconsin or in the finale against Ohio State. Peters is healthy now, and he’s got ‘bet-on’ quotes everywhere around him from that Michigan locker room. O’Korn: "From the first time that he went in, he’s just grown up so much. He’s really taking control of the offense, taking control of the locker room, and it’s been really cool to see." Michigan co-captain, left tackle Mason Cole:"He has a lot of confidence, the kid's got a little swagger to him. He runs around like he owns the place. And that's what you want." Jim Harbaugh is a good bully, not shy about running up scores when he has the chance. Given the Wolverines late season struggles, I’m expecting Harbaugh to keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish on New Year’s Day. South Carolina’s last win against a foe with a winning record came back in September and the SEC East is primed for some more ugly bowl results. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#307). This is what matters here. The Panthers will go into this game live for the NFC South title and a #2 seed. If they lose, they could fall as low as #5 and be on the road next week, instead of enjoying a bye. Even if the Saints get off to a big lead at Tampa, expect Ron Rivera to keep his starters in the game, because a win would mean a home game next week while a loss could send them on the road. Carolina gets back a pair of key defenders from suspension here, LB Thomas Davis and DE Charles Johnson. For a team that is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, the return of those two defenders adds a bit of swagger to this stop unit, especially considering that both guys are Georgia graduates, heading home. This defense has forced 17 turnovers during that eight game span, and they’re coming off a seven sack effort against Tampa Bay last week. But more than any other factor, this is a bet AGAINST the Falcons in a ‘must win’ game. Atlanta has a grand total of three wins by more than a field goal since September. They beat the 5-10 Jets by five points. They beat Dallas when the Cowboys were completely falling apart in the first game of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. And they beat the 4-11 Bucs in a ‘Ryan Fitzpatrick’ game for Tampa. That’s not exactly a track record of beating good teams by margin! Steve Sarkisian is no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to designing an offense or calling plays. Atlanta’s scoring output is a shell of what it was under Shanahan — they’ve scored just 9, 20, 24 and 13 points in their last four games, down nearly two TD’s per game compared to last year. Must win or not, the Falcons are laying more than a field goal to a team that’s better than them, a clear ‘bet-against’ situation for this false favorite. Take the Panthers. |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville (#311) Let me start with this basic premise, a premise that has been thoroughly validated by the first 16 weeks of the NFL season: At full strength, the Jaguars are a better team than the Titans. And while Tennessee beat Jacksonville by three touchdowns back in Week 2, the Jags team they faced then is a very different team at this stage of the campaign. That makes this quote from Doug Marrone stand out: “Make no mistake about it so there’s not a lot of talk about it during the week: We’re going to play to win and we’re going to do everything possible to win this game, period. I’m not even thinking about what happens beyond that. That’s the way we’re going to go about our business this week.” The Jags were no-shows in San Fran last Sunday, a rarity for a team that has stepped up rather well this season. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS off their four previous losses this season, winning each and every one of those games by 20 points or more and covering every spread by a double digit margin. Two of those four wins came as underdogs, a third came as a short favorite. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! Tennessee is anything BUT a confident team at this stage of the campaign. They’ve lost three straight ‘must win’ games, including a home game against the Rams last week, falling apart with the outcome very much in doubt when it mattered most — the fourth quarter. Incredibly, the Titans last win and cover against a competitive foe (not counting the bottom feeders) came back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Mike Mularkey certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor in a ‘must win’ game as chalk against a focused foe that is the superior squad. Big Ticket: Take the Jaguars. |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts -3.5 | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Indianapolis (#316). The premise here is simple. You can stick a fork in the Houston Texans because they are done. They’ve lost each of their last five games by a touchdown or more, the last four defeats all coming by double digit margins. Each of the last two losses has been completely non-competitive: 45-7 to Jacksonville and 34-6 to Pittsburgh. I recognize that Indy isn’t Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. I also recognize when a team has thrown in the towel….. Houston has simply had too many injuries. Deshaun Watson was a spark, but he suffered a season ender. So did JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus and D’Onta Foreman and CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. WR Will Fuller has a cracked rib and hasn’t had more than 50 receiving yards in a game since October. DeAndre Hopkins — the team’s only legit threat — hasn’t practiced all week and is likely to miss the first game of his five year NFL career on Sunday. A meaningless season finale on the highway is most assuredly not a ‘step-up’ spot for this sorry squad at the tail end of a dismal campaign. We saw last week what a popular coach can do for team morale in what is likely to be his last home game when the ‘dead’ Bengals came up strong and knocked the Lions out of playoff contention. Reading between the lines of the quotes coming out of Indy this week, I’m expecting a ‘step-up’ effort for Chuck Pagano in Week 17. Unlike the Texans, the Colts have shown plenty of fight down the stretch in competitive losses like the one they suffered last week at Baltimore. Pagano: "Last rodeo. It's our last ride together. ... What better way than to go out with a win?” I expect Indy to get that victory in relatively easy fashion, a game that has legitimate blowout potential despite the Colts season long struggles. Take the Colts. |
|||||||
12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State UNDER 55 | 28-35 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State - Washington UNDER (#261-262). My premise here is two-fold. First, the loss of Joe Morehead matters for Penn State. Second, Washington’s defense is truly elite but their offense is not. Let’s start with #2 first. Away from home, Washington faced two bowl teams this year, Arizona State and Stanford. They scored just 29 points in those two games combined. Washington has a handful of offensive playmakers, most notably RB Myles Gaskin and WR/KR Dante Pettis. What the Huskies did not have — and have not had — is elite QB play with Jake Browning behind center. In two ‘step-up’ games vs quality defenses last year, Browning was terrible both times, unable to move the offense in ugly losses vs USC and Alabama. This year was more of the same - lots of big numbers against weak defensive foes, but not much production in their few 'step up in class' games. I do not trust this offense to put up points in bunches here. But I sure do trust this Huskies defense, a unit with loads of future NFL talent and plenty of swagger to their step. We’re talking about a team that allowed more than 16 points only three times all year, despite facing a steady diet of high octane PAC-12 foes. Penn State’s offense was brilliantly called all year, a HUGE part of their big numbers. After more than a month off, without Morehead keeping defenses off balance, facing an elite stop unit, I do NOT expect the Nittany Lions to march up and down the field. This quote stands out, even though it’s from a different team in a different game. Here’s what Missouri defensive end Marcell Frazier had to say after the Tigers offense was stymied in their bowl loss to Texas after putting up huge numbers for the previous two months, talking about the offensive coordinator and OL coach that skipped town for new jobs:"Realistically, Heupel left us in a bad position. It is what it is. And Elarbee left us in a bad position. As men they have to look in the mirror. They let a whole bunch of teenage boys down, 18- and 19-year-olds. They left and they have to do what's best for their family, but I think it showed up a little bit today. We were doing things [on offense] we haven't done since maybe the Auburn game. It showed up. We practiced for almost a whole month without an O-coordinator or an O-line coach after having one of the most dominating offenses in the nation. It's tough.” Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis OVER 65.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Memphis - Iowa State OVER (#259-260). Memphis is a ‘dead nuts’ Over team, 9-3 to the Over this season. The Tigers play fast, averaging more than 75 offensive plays per game. They have a bevy of skill position talent starting with senior QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for more than 3900 yards at 9.0 yards per attempt with 36 TD strikes. The Tigers run a balanced spread attack, capable of running or throwing on any down. And they’ve moved the football against EVERYBODY, held under 30 points only once all season. Iowa State has faced a handful of spread offenses with strong QB play this season. They haven’t stopped any of them, lit up for more than 500 yards against both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, while allowing 11 touchdowns in those two games. Riley Ferguson isn’t Mason Rudolph or Baker Mayfield when it comes to NFL potential, but don’t sell the Tigers QB short against this caliber of defense. I expect Memphis to get into the 30’s here. The reason Memphis lost twice to UCF this year was on the defensive side of the football, a mediocre stop unit on a good day; lacking both size and speed. That’s a problem against the Cyclones trio of big receivers, with their top three pass catchers all standing 6-4 or taller. Iowa State has all kinds of depth and versatility in their receiving corps, with seven guys catching at least 25 balls, and their offense is balanced with David Montgomery’s strong legs in the running game. Don’t expect many stops in this one, and look for the red zone opportunities for BOTH teams to result in touchdowns, not field goals. Take the Over. |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Washington State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#277) This is not a good fundamental matchup for the Washington State Cougars. And considering how high the Cougars hopes were heading into their Apple Cup showdown against Washington, a bad fundamental matchup is now also a potential motivational issue for the favorite in this ballgame…although I’m not convinced that the Cougars will still be favored by the time kickoff rolls around. The loss to Washington hangs as a backdrop here. The Cougars were on pace for a truly special season, pinning all their hopes on knocking off the Huskies in their season finale. But that game was as ugly as it gets, right from the opening kickoff as Wassou was non-competitive in defeat, because this offense didn’t/doesn’t work against a top notch stop unit. QB Luke Falk’s senior season can only be described as ‘disappointing’, with the lowest yards per pass attempt, lowest passer rating and most interceptions of his four years as the starter! And Falk was at his worst in late season games away from home against Washington, Cal and Arizona, all ugly blowout losses for Mike Leach’s squad. With Leach flirting with the Tennessee job before signing an extension, it’s not even clear that his focus is on the task at hand either. And we cannot forget how poorly this offense has looked following time off for recent bowls – the Cougs were held to 32 points against Minnesota and Miami combined in 2015 and 2016. Mark Dantonio, in sharp contrast, has consistently seen his teams overachieve during bowl season. Sparty missed a bowl last year – this is one motivated team for the Holiday Bowl – but they had gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their four previous bowls before running into Alabama in 2015. The Spartans were outclassed in that game, just like they were outclassed in their ugly blowout at Ohio State. Make no mistake about it. Washington State is not Ohio State or Alabama, not even close. When Dantonio’s teams aren’t outclassed, they’re ‘bet-on’ all the way. The Spartans finished the season ranked #13 in pass efficiency defense, and they played more true freshmen (13) than seniors (12) this season – these extra bowl practices really matter for Sparty. And considering the fact that this defense held FIVE different Big 10 opponents to 10 points or less, I’m expecting them to control the flow here as well. Take Michigan State. |
|||||||
12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 198 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#245) I keep hearing mainstream media reports talking about what a genius Gary Patterson is at TCU. There’s only one problem with that theory – facts! Patterson has had three winning seasons in the Big 12 in six years since joining the league. His track record with extra time to prepare for bowl games isn’t very good, including an 0-5 ATS Run in bowls prior to his lone recent bowl blowout, a 42-3 wipeout over an Ole Miss squad that didn’t show up. What about Patterson in big games, with titles on the line? Well, we saw TCU get bombed twice by Oklahoma this year, coming up waaaaaay short in their two biggest tests of the season. We saw TCU get beaten at Iowa State as well – a ‘Kenny Hill’ game. The Horned Frogs senior QB put together a solid statistical season, completing 67% of his passes with a 23-8 TD-INT ratio. But Hill did NOT step up in class well and all of his bad games came on the highway, to the tune of a 178 passer rating at home compared to 124 away from home. Plain and simple – I do NOT trust Kenny Hill against a Stanford defense of this caliber! David Shaw gets about one tenth of the love that Gary Patterson gets, despite the fact that he’s a better coach. How do we know? This stat stands out to me: Stanford is 12-3 ATS as an underdog in the Shaw era, consistently stepping up with strong performances against the toughest competition that they face. That includes SU wins as an underdog this year against Washington and Notre Dame, as well as a cover in the PAC-12 title game in a three point loss to USC. TCU has a 3-3-5 defense built to stop the bevy of spread offenses in the Big 12. Stanford has a power rushing attack with a big time playmaker at RB in Bryce Love; a speedster who can turn one missed tackle into a quick strike, momentum changing touchdown. And frankly, I’ve been impressed with the Cardinal QB KJ Costello, who through six TD’s without an INT against Notre Dame and USC in the final two games of the regular season. Wrong team favored here! Take Stanford. |
|||||||
12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 174 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas (#240) We’ve got a flat out ‘bet-on’ Texas squad taking on a flat out ‘bet-against’ team from Missouri. Best of all, the Tigers are the favorite and they’re taking $$, offering us the opportunity to back the superior team with the superior coach and the vastly superior talent level at an underdog price. That, folks, is the very definition of what I’m looking for when I step up with a Big Ticket sized wager. Missouri opened this season 1-5, the lone win coming against FCS competition. Four of the losses came by 18 points or more, the defense allowed well over 40 points per game during that span and Barry Odom’s short tenure with the Tigers was on very shaky ground. Missouri closed the season by going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, averaging more than 51 points per game. Odom’s job is now safe, everyone’s happy in Columbia, and the Tigers are going bowling for the first time since 2014. The mainstream narrative is that Missouri ‘figured it out’ and that Drew Lock is a legit talent at QB moving forward. That narrative makes perfect sense….until it completely falls apart when we take a closer look. Missouri’s 6-0 winning streak went like this: They beat Idaho (Idaho stinks, finishing 4-8 in the Sun Belt Conference). They beat UConn (UConn stinks, finishing 3-9 in the AAC). They beat 4-7 Florida. Jim McElwain had just been fired. They beat 4-8 Tennessee. Butch Jones was about to get fired. They beat 5-7 Vandy. Derek Mason almost got fired, but they didn’t want to buy him out yet. They beat 4-8 Arkansas. Brett Bielema got fired right after the game. That’s a grand total of zero wins against any decent team all year. Everything Missouri accomplished came against a bottom feeder foe that couldn’t compete or was falling apart – EVERYTHING. This team isn’t just overrated – they’re wildly overrated in the betting markets at this stage of the campaign. That’s not the case for Texas! My clients and I have cashed multiple winning bets this year AND last year And in 2015 and in 2014 riding this same trend, a trend that the mainstream media hasn’t seem to pick up on. That trend? Tom Herman as an underdog! The results do not lie. Dating back to his tenure as the Ohio State offensive coordinator, continuing through his tenure as the Houston Cougars head coach right into his tenure as the Longhorns head coach, Herman has done one thing remarkably well – he steps up in class. Herman’s teams are now 15-1 ATS as an underdog in their last 16 tries dating back to 2014. Even the ‘1’ deserves an asterisk – it was a one score game in the fourth quarter and the Longhorns were playing without their starting quarterback! That stretch includes wins over the likes of Florida State, Oregon and Alabama – championship contending teams. Herman’s got both QB’s healthy and ready to go here, Sam Ehlinger the ‘playmaker’ of the duo and Shane Buechele, the better downfield passer. The extra bowl practices should help this offense considerably. But the key here is the Longhorns defense. It’s not like Texas hasn’t seen multiple spread offenses this year – the kind Missouri runs. The Longhorns have already faced Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph, among others (3-0 ATS against arguably the best three QB’s in college football this year. They’re battle tested against offenses like this one, primed to win this game in SU fashion! Big Ticket: Take Texas. |
|||||||
12-26-17 | Utah -6.5 v. West Virginia | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 142 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#229) It’s not hard to make a case for betting on Kyle Whittingham’s team in a bowl game. The Utes have thrived in the postseason throughout Whittingham’s tenure: 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, including wins over Colorado State, BYU and Indiana over the last three postseasons. The Utes will have dynamic starting QB Tyler Huntley rested and ready for this one after he missed the season finale due to injury. Huntley averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and was the team’s second leading rusher behind Zack Moss; a legitimate dual threat QB primed to give the Mountaineer defense all kinds of problems. And the Utes dominance on special teams – true dominance, with the Lou Groza Award winning kicker and the #6 net punter in the country – ensures that West Virginia won’t be getting many short fields to work with. That’s bad news for Dana Holgorsen’s squad, because they’ll be playing without their star senior QB Will Grier, leaving backup Chris Chugunov as their starter for the bowl game. Grier averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 162.7. Chugunov averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 120 – there’s a MAJOR drop-off from the starter to the backup. And THAT’s bad news for West Virginia because this defense isn’t primed to get many stops. The Mountaineers returned only three starters on that side of the football and it showed all year; ranked #92 in scoring defense, #104 in rush defense and #101 in pass efficiency defense. West Virginia got lit up 59-31 against Oklahoma in their season finale, one week after losing to Texas by two touchdowns as home favorites. No surprise here if that negative momentum carries forward to this bowl game……Take Utah. |
|||||||
12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -9 | 10-19 | Push | 0 | 83 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#132) We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ team vs. an equally clear ‘bet-against’ squad on Monday Night Football this week. Philly was sloppy last week against the Giants, to put it mildly, allowing a bottom tier Giants offense to gain more than 500 yards and four TD’s against them. Head coach Doug Pederson was not amused. “Can’t play like this and win in the postseason. Got to come prepared. And when I say prepared, I think from a mental standpoint, that emotion, that sense of urgency, that dominating swagger that you want to see your team come out aggressing with.” Veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins was not amused either: “I think each one of us needs to take a look a hard look at ourselves and be critical and evaluate where we can be better, whether that’s knowing the opponent better or knowing the scheme better. We’re going to need everybody to execute. It’s a race to get better right now.” How about veteran LB Nigel Bradham: “We don’t need nobody to tell us we’ve got to do better. We see it just like everybody else. One thing about us is we’ve all got chips on our shoulders. We want to get better. We’re going to challenge ourselves. We’ll get that corrected.” Given those quotes, and given the fact that a win here will clinch the #1 seed for the Eagles, I’m anticipating an elite team bringing their ‘A’ game on Christmas Night. The Raiders cannot be expected to match that level of play after their season essentially ended with Derek Carr’s goal line fumble last Sunday Night. Oakland won’t have left tackle Donald Penn, ending his streak of 170 consecutive starts for the Raiders. The defensive line will be playing without Mario Edwards Jr and Treyvon Hester. Starting receivers Michael Crabtree (concussion) and Amari Cooper (ankle) are questionable at best, neither likely to be at 100% if they suit up. We’ve seen the Raiders let go of the rope repeatedly on the highway this season, losing by 17 at Washington, by 20 at Buffalo, by 25 vs. New England in Mexico City and by 11 (they trailed 26-0 in that game) at KC. No surprise here if the energy to fight from behind is rather limited for this disappointing squad. There’s some chance that the Packers beat the Vikings on Saturday Night as nine point underdogs, clinching the #1 seed for the Eagles before kickoff. This quote from Doug Pederson leaves me confident that Philly will come to play anyway, saving the ‘resting starters’ thing for Week 17:”You’ve got to maintain that confidence and that dominating swagger and you’ve got to keep that alive.” Take the Eagles. |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 41 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#124) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is still priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 5-24 SU in their last 29 games, especially when they’re matched up with a ‘Flavor of the Week’ like the Jaguars. But the Niners have won three straight since Garappolo took over behind center, rallying from behind in the fourth quarter TWICE last week to beat a winning team trying to clinch a playoff spot. And the Jags are as ‘fat and happy’ as it gets at this time of the year after clinching their first playoff appearance since 2007. Blake Bortles is not the better QB in this game the way he was last week against the Texans…. Take the 49ers. |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#110) I believe the Rams are better than the Titans, and deserve to be road favorites. But this line has gone through the roof and from all indications, Tennessee is coming to play on Sunday. All the value here – and there is legitimate value at the current pointspread – lies with the home underdog. I’m not going to write a bunch of negative things about LA here – this is a solid football team that has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all season. That’s certainly factored into this pointspread! But now we’re talking about a very young West Coast team flying East for an early start game right before Christmas, coming off arguably their biggest win of the decade at Seattle last week. The final score against the Seahawks is a big reason why this pointspread is where it is – last week’s lookahead line was LA -3. And frankly, that result was as much about the Seattle no-show as anything LA did right. All 40 of LA’s offensive points came from drives that started in Seahawks territory. Jared Goff only generated 104 net passing yards on 22 dropbacks. Those are not ‘lay a TD on the road against a feisty foe’ type of stats, every bit as dicey as the spot for Sean McVay’s squad. Even after suffering tough losses to the 6-8 Cardinals and the 4-10 49ers over the last two weeks, the Titans can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, currently the #5 seed in the AFC. There’s certainly a level of hunger here. Pro Bowl DT Jurrell Casey: “To lose to two sorry teams like that back-to-back, I’m at a loss for words.” Marcus Mariota: “We left Nashville in first place in our division. It's not a very good feeling." Tennessee did find a spark last week with their no-huddle offense, rallying back from a 16-3 deficit at San Fran, then driving to kick what could have been the game winning FG with just over a minute left. This team hasn’t lost at home since opening day, notching five straight wins on this field. Too many points! Take the Titans. |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#119) Here’s all you need to know about Miami’s mentality as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase: “We’re still in this season. This thing’s not quite over yet…. We’ve got two games to make some strides here. Win this one and go from there and see what happens.” The Dolphins have won two of their last three, including an impressive victory over the defending Super Bowl champs. But last week in Buffalo they fell behind early on a short week in a flat spot, and couldn’t rally to catch up. That being said, they did turn a 24-6 deficit into a 24-16 final score, showing resolve in a spot where they easily could have let go of the rope. They also showed that despite some ugly overall stats (the Dolphins are NOT good in the yards-per-play department), this team is more than capable of making plays on both sides of the ball. I have little hesitation betting against Andy Reid as a double digit favorite. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, Reid’s Chiefs have been favored by -6.5 or more eleven times. They have twice as many SU losses in that role (four) as they do pointspread covers (two). Coming off the big divisional win against the Chargers last week, with a trip to Denver on deck, this divisional sandwich is most assuredly NOT a ‘bet-on’ spo t for this double digit favorite. Take the Dolphins. |
|||||||
12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 66 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 69 h 37 m | Show | |
Take South Florida – Texas Tech OVER (#221-222) The USF defense put up some strong numbers against the pass this year. The Texas Tech defense, statistically speaking, was a good notch or two better this year than it’s been in recent seasons. I’m not buying that either defense is as good as advertised, yet the stats ensure that this total isn’t going to skyrocket between now and kickoff. And given the expected pace of play in this ballgame – USF ranks #2 in the country, running 85 plays per game, and Texas Tech ranks #20 at 78 plays per game – we can expect the offenses to rule the day, not the defenses. USF puts up points in bunches, hanging 30+ on their foes nine times while averaging 41 points per game, They are balanced – a big problem for the Red Raider defense, a stop unit that allowed 56 points in their last bowl appearance – averaging 226 rushing yards and 328 passing yards per game, led by senior QB Quinton Flowers. Six different players caught a TD pass of more than 20 yards; not an easy offense to stop even for a Big 12 defense. The Texas Tech defense improved by 12 points per game, allowing 43 points in 2016 but less than 32 ppg in 2017. They were more than 100 yards per game better defensively than last year. And yet, at no point this season did the Red Raider defense pass the ‘eye’ test. Just about every good offense they faced moved the ball up an down the field against them. But QB Nik Shimonek threw for more than 300 yards per game; a multi-year starter who is very comfortable running Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In a battle of senior QB’s who can chuck the football around, we can expect a high scoring shootout! Take the Over. |
|||||||
12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan (#219) At no point this season was Wyoming a good football team. NFL prospect QB Josh Allen is expected to start (prompting a three point line move for something that was already factored into the number), but Allen, quite frankly, has been a major disappointment all year. The Cowboys have shown precious little enthusiasm for travelling to a Mountain West venue where they played already this year (a game they lost by double digits). And Central Michigan’s full season stats are lying, a team that, without a doubt, is far better now than they were in September or October. I liked the Chippewas BEFORE the big line move. After a three point swing, this game is clearly worthy of Big Ticket status. Let’s start with Josh Allen. First of all, he’s not 100% healthy, even though he’s going to start. Allen, last week: “The shoulder is getting better day by day. I’ve been getting back in the swing of things with some seven-on-seven and some plays in team sessions the last couple of days of practice.” Head coach Craig Bohl: “The arrow is pointing up as far as his progression. Is he 100 percent? I don’t know if that’s quite accurate.” Even when healthy this season, Allen hasn’t come close to living up to the hype. In 2016, he threw for 8.6 yards per pass attempt and a passer rating of 144.9. This year, it was 6.6 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 124.0; a MASSIVE drop-off. What happened? His supporting cast was non-existent! Wyoming’s offensive line couldn’t protect Allen or open holes for any semblance of a running game – no RB reached 500 yards for the Cowboys. Austin Conway was the only pass catcher to nab more than 27 catches all season, and he averaged only 9.0 yards per catch. Without any legit playmakers and with a weak OL protecting him, Allen lost his confidence this year. I’m not convinced he’s going to find it here, especially after missing so much practice time (and the final two regular season games) with his bum shoulder. And another trip to Boise has generated precious little enthusiasm, in sharp contrast to last year’s trip to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Central Michigan got off to a 3-4 start, with Michigan transfer Shane Morris struggling early after earning the starting QB job for HC John Bonamego. But the senior QB found his mojo down the stretch, guiding the Chippewas to a 5-0 SU/ATS run down the stretch. That didn’t come against MAC weaklings either – Central pulled outright upsets over Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan as underdogs, winning each of those games by a TD or more. With a senior QB and a bevy of senior skill position talent around him – top WR’s Mark Chapman and Corey Willis as well as tight end Tyler Conklin are all in their final game with the program – Central Michigan has the big play ability on offense that Wyoming simply can’t match. Wrong team favored here…. Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan. |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 53.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England – Pittsburgh OVER (#325-326) Fact #1: Tom Brady has dominated the Steelers defense like no other team in the NFL. In six starts against the Steelers in the Mike Tomlin era, Tom Brady has a 19-0 TD-INT ratio while averaging 315 passing yards per game. Fact #2: The Patriots get Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup this week off his one game suspension. Clearly, he’s a difference maker in this offense. Fact #3: Since Joe Haden got hurt, the Steelers have allowed more 20+ yard completions than any team in the NFL despite facing Brett Hundley, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco during that span. That trio had a cumulative QB rating of 102.2 against Pittsburgh’s defense. To put that in perspective, Pittsburgh’s defense has just made a trio of struggling QB’s look like Aaron Rodgers (103.2 QB rating this year) or Carson Wentz (101.9). Fact #4: Joe Haden is very questionable to play on Sunday, especially when we look at his quote from earlier in the week. “It feels sore, but we’ll figure it out. It’s getting there. We’re in the playoffs. We have stuff to look forward to. I don’t want to go out there half-assed and be out there hurting the team, hurting myself.” Fact #5: The Patriots defense still ranks dead last against the pass according to the Football Outsider best advanced metric stats, the #30 defense overall. Pittsburgh ranks in the Top 10 in both running and passing based on FBO numbers, and have the #3 offense overall. This offense is finally in sync, averaging just shy of 34 points per game in their last four contests. No surprise then, that the Steelers are riding a 4-0 Over run into their matchup with the Pats. Synopsis & Opinion: Neither defense can be trusted to get stops. Both offenses are as potent as any in the NFL, and neither coach is likely to slow down their aggressive playcalling with a lead, knowing what their opponent is capable of doing. The weather report is fine for a December evening in Pittsburgh. Expect fireworks! Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#323) The injuries haven’t stopped for the Seahawks defense. Already playing without future Hall of Famers Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary and the pass rushing force that is Cliff Avril; Seattle lost two more key starters in their loss at Jacksonville last week when former pro bowlers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright went down. This is a clear problem for the Seahawks. They gave up 424 total yards and 30 points last week, while the Jaguars gained 6.4 yards per play. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s a full yard per play better than Jacksonville has averaged for the season. Seattle was gashed in the running game to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry from the Jags RB’s, while Blake Bortles averaged 9.9 yards per throw, his second best mark of the season. Without healthy bodies in the secondary or among their LB corps, we can expect the Seahawks defensive struggles to continue. That’s bad news against a Rams offense that is really clicking, off back-2-back 30+ point efforts. And don’t underestimate how much the first meeting between these two squads was an anomaly. The Rams outgained the Seahawks by more than 100 yards. They shut down Russell Wilson, holding Seattle’s QB to just 4.4 yards per pass attempt while picking him off twice. But the Rams committed five turnovers and failed to produce a touchdown in four red zone tries. I’m not expecting a repeat in the rematch. LA’s special teams units are ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse, deflating their pointspreads. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately reflect their importance. Here’s the bottom line. LA is the better of these two teams right now - -heck, they were the better of the two teams in the first meeting -- , and I’m confident they’re ready to notch a statement win on the road in Seattle against a Seahawks team living on reputation more than reality. No rush to bet this -- we could see +3's between now and kickoff. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40 | 27-10 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Baltimore OVER (#321-322) You can take your whole season’s worth of Cleveland Browns offensive statistics and shove them where the sun don’t shine. Whatever the Browns offense was before big play WR’s Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon got onto the field, it’s a very different caliber of offense since they returned! All of a sudden, we’ve seen plenty of room to run for Isaiah Crowell: 5.9, 4.1 and 6.3 yards per carry over the past three weeks – he gained his season high in yardage last week. All of a sudden DeShone Kizer is throwing touchdown to go along with his interceptions – four of his nine TD passes have come in the last two weeks. All of a sudden RB Duke Johnson is having an impact in the passing game, with at least four catches out of the backfield in four of the last five weeks. This Browns offense is MUCH better than it was for most of the season. They’re a winless team in their home finale against a divisional rival, most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot. And they’re facing a Ravens defense without shutdown corner Jimmy Smith and nickle/dime corner Maurice Canady, a defense that just allowed 59 points over the last two weeks in a pair of games that flew Over the total by 20.5 and 34 points. You can take your full season Baltimore Ravens offensive statistics and shove them right next to the Browns offensive stats, fully meaningless in current realties yet still holding sway over the betting marketplace. No team in the NFL has scored more than the Ravens have over the last two weeks. In their last six games, Baltimore is averaging more than 30 points per game. Flacco has been ‘bombs away’ to his receivers, hitting nine different pass catchers last week. RB Alex Collins now ranks #3 in the NFL with a 5.1 yards per carry average. Danny Woodhead has had an impact since his return from injury. Both Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin are expected to start. Wallace is still being listed as questionable in many places (deflating this total, but here’s his quote after practice on Thursday: “Man, I’m playing on Sunday, you don’t even have to ask.” When the season long offensive stats are lying, like they are for BOTH of these teams, there’s legitimate value on the Over. Throw in a relatively mild afternoon with little wind – even if we do see some light rain -- and the case for a high scoring affair is perfectly clear. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 62 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 197 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas St – Middle Tennessee St OVER (#209-210) We can throw out most of Middle Tennessee’s offensive stats. Their senior quarterback Brent Stockstill – a four year starter and the coach’s son – missed six games in the middle of the season due to injury. The Blue Raiders went 2-4 in those games, and they were held to 23 points or less five times during that span, with backup QB John Urzua throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. Brent Stockstill returned to the field at the beginning of November. In the four games to close out the regular season with Stockstill behind center, Middle Tennessee hung at least 30 points on their foes all four times, and Stockstill compiled a 10-3 TD-INT ratio. So the aggregate, season long stats for the Blue Raiders – which totals are based on – still has a healthy dose of Urzua’s numbers, numbers that are meaningless for the purposes of this bowl game. It’s surely worth noting that Middle Tennessee has played wild shootouts in each of their last two bowl games, losing 45-31 to Western Michigan two years ago and 52-35 to Hawaii last year. There’s little reason to think that the Blue Raiders defense is going to step up with a strong effort this time around – the better offenses that MTSU has faced this year have consistently moved the football up and down the field against them. Make no mistake about it – the Red Wolves have a good offense. Blake Anderson’s squad finished the season ranked #6 in the nation in passing yards, #11 in total yards and #15 in points per game. Junior QB Justice Hansen – an Oklahoma transfer with potential NFL upside – threw for more than 3600 yards and 34 TD’s. Six different receivers caught at least three touchdowns, and the offense worked even in a ‘step-up-in-class’ game at Nebraska, a wild 43-36 shootout. No surprise here if the Camillia Bowl is every bit as wild! The short turnaround between the end of the regular season and the start of bowl season should help these two potent offenses to stay in rhythm. Stockstill, talking about the difference between this year and their post- New Year’s Day Bowl last year: “It's way better (this year). We like to treat it like a bye week. We know that we're going to take on a tough opponent, but we're excited that it's right around the corner." Take the Over. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 194 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Marshall (#207) The mainstream media is going to call this a matchup of two 7-5 teams. Not Me! This is a matchup of an 8-4 team (Marshall ATS, consistently undervalued) vs. a 4-8 team (Colorado State ATS, consistently overvalued). That doesn’t change here, with the Thundering Herd catching 5.5 (as I write this) from the Rams. Marshall has been at their best all season when stepping UP in class, a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. Doc Holliday has built a solid, winning program here, and the Thundering Herd went 10-4, 13-1 and 10-3 in 2013, ‘14 and ‘15, including a 3-0 SU and ATS mark in their bowl games. But last year was a 3-9 debacle, where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. As a result, here in 2017, Marshall sure sounds motivated to get back to a bowl game and travel to Albuquerque, as evidenced by these quotes: Tight End Ryan Yuracheck: "From a player's standpoint, it's awesome. To be able to go to a place you've never been before and play an opponent that you never thought you'd play from a conference you didn't think you'd play, that's what gets you excited to go play football. We're so fortunate to play this game and to go out to a place like that, it's special." Defensive end Blake Keller: "That's what's exciting about it. People have been places - St. Pete, Boca - but nobody has been to New Mexico. The furthest west that most of us have been was San Antonio, so now we get to go even further.” That level of enthusiasm stands in sharp contrast to what I’m seeing from Colorado State. The Rams fifth year seniors will be making their fifth trip to Albuquerque; not the landing spot they were hoping for. CSU has flat out stunk up the joint in both previous bowls under Mike Bobo, losing outright as -5 favorites vs. Nevada and as -16 favorites vs. Idaho. And Bobo’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way – when the coach of the favorite is complaining about time frames and distractions, it’s not usually a positive sign. Bobo: “It will be tough, because we do have finals starting not this week but next week; you’ve got recruiting going on, so it’s going to be a grind the next two weeks recruiting and bowl practices and finals. We’ve got to finish. We want to finish strong academically and finish this season strong on the football side and then we want to finish strong in recruiting for the first signing period. It’s going to be a hectic two weeks.” The Thundering Herd are live dogs in this one! Take Marshall. |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 192 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Western Kentucky (#204) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Georgia State is about as weak a bowl team as you will ever find, especially in a game where the pointspread is less than a touchdown. Heading into the season, they were projected to be near the bottom of the weakest FBS conference (the Sun Belt). But their schedule was friendly – they avoided better Sun Belt teams like Arkansas St, Louisiana and New Mexico St. When the smoke cleared from the Panthers season, they had wins over these teams: Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Georgia Southern and Texas St. The ‘quality’ win in that group came against the 4-8 War Hawks. In three ‘step-up’ games against bowl bound foes, Georgia St lost by a combined 101 points. That includes a 34-10 home loss to Troy and a 31-10 home loss to Appalachian State, not exactly elite competition. Georgia State’s previous bowl experience? A double digit loss right here on this field two years ago against a bad San Jose State team. And it’s surely worth noting that their best player, WR Penny Hart, got hurt in their season finale against Idaho, with his status up in the air for the early bowl game. I do NOT expect Shawn Elliott’s first year on the job to end with a bowl victory…or even a tight loss. Western Kentucky has shown well in recent bowl games: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS over the past three seasons, the lone pointspread loss coming in a very memorable Bahamas Bowl against Central Michigan where they led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. Senior QB Mike White has only thrown 14 interceptions in his last two seasons as a starter, a guy likely to be in an NFL camp next Fall. Taking a big step DOWN in class from the back half of their schedule, look for the Hilltoppers to control the flow, winning here by a TD or more. Take Western Kentucky. |
|||||||
12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#301) The quotes here tell most of the story. Indy is coming off a truly brutal game, losing in OT in a blizzard at Buffalo. Teams off an overtime game on Sunday playing on a short week for a Thursday Night game have been nothing short of awful: 8-22 SU, 6-24 ATS. And the Colts are most assuredly feeling the after effects of the snow bowl. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano: “How do you feel after running in seven, eight, nine inches of snow, down after down?. It was a challenge getting on the field and off the field for us (coaches), let alone those players. It was like running on the beach in quick sand. Their legs were dead.” Colts QB Jacoby Brissett on Monday, his 25th birthday: “I feel a lot older than 25 today.” It’s surely worth noting that Brissett’s sack percentage is the highest in the NFL by a wide margin, bad news against the Broncos fierce pass rush. It’s also worth noting that the Colts have the single worst yards-per-play differential in the NFL, outgained by a whopping 1.3 yards on every snap, offense vs. defense. Indy hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November 5th at Houston. 13 year veteran Frank Gore is coming off a 36 carry performance in the snow – a likely non-factor tonight. And Denver’s defense was thoroughly re-energized for the stretch run following last week’s dominant showing, shutting out the Jets. Broncos LB Shane Ray said it best: “This is the kind of game we expected to play against everyone, not just New York. Everybody that we play, we should beat them like this. Period.” I concur. Take the Broncos. |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Ravens +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#131) Ryan Shazier matters. The Steelers star linebacker is still in the hospital dealing with a spine injury following Pittsburgh’s brutally physical, ultra-intense, come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football. There’s been a notable loss in the locker room this week. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler: “(We’re) not worried about his football career, (we’re) worried about HIM.” Shazier’s absence is only one piece of the puzzle for the Steelers defense this week. Shazier’s backup, Tyler Matakevich, has been unable to practice all week, last seen wearing a shoulder harness. Cornerback Joe Haden is out again. Since his injury, the Steelers have allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than any team in the NFL. Safety Mike Mitchell has missed two of the last three games as well, very questionable for Sunday. On a short week, off a physical game, these defensive injuries are meaningful! When the Steelers are forced to make waiver wire moves like picking up Sean Spence (a guy who couldn’t last with the lowly Colts, cut back in October) and put him in practice with the first stringers, it’s a problem. Let’s not forget that ancient James Harrison has only made three tackles all season, inactive for more than a month. These Steelers injuries are coming at just the wrong time – not to mention that they’ve got a pretty serious lookahead going for next week, with the #1 seed in the AFC on the line as they battle the Patriots. The Ravens season long offensive numbers are downright ugly. Joe Flacco is dead last in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (counting sacks). RB Alex Collins has struggled in three straight road games, gaining only 2.8 yards per attempt on his 43 carries. But here in December, those numbers are flat out lying! Flacco might have had his best game of the season -certainly his best game since Week 5 at Oakland -- last week, finding Jeremy Maclin, finding Mike Wallace, finding Ben Watson, finding Danny Woodhead -- 10 different Ravens caught a pass. Meanwhile, Collins is up to 4.9 yards per carry and he’s punched in four TD’s over the past three weeks. The Ravens offense is pointed in the right direction; the Steelers defense in the wrong direction. Baltimore won’t have star cornerback Jimmy Smith following his season ending injury last week. But John Harbaugh isn’t short on cornerback depth, by any stretch of the imagination, with first rounder Marlon Humphrey poised to step in on the other side from Brandon Carr. John Harbaugh, talking about his rookie CB: “He is a self-starter. You don’t have to prod him really, to calm him down, because he is new to it.” Brandon Carr: “All the intangibles are there. He is smart, physical and can run. He is willing to take his lumps and he is going to be OK.” It’ll be at least somewhat easier for the Ravens secondary this week because Steelers second leading receiver JuJu Smith Shuster is out – Pittsburgh’s WR depth is rather limited these days. And it’s surely worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 26-9 win over Baltimore as -3.5 point favorites back in Week 4 was the first time either team had covered a pointspread of higher than -3 in this series since 2007, when Brian Billick was in his last season as the Ravens head coach. Laying points in this series has been an exercise in failure. Expect a tight, competitive contest that comes down to the final possession – exactly what we expect when the Steelers and Ravens collide. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1.5 | 43-35 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#128) Three factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, I’m not buying the Eagles as top notch contenders right now. Make no mistake about it – Philly has been feasting on the weak. We’re talking about a squad that has played a grand total of TWO games all season against opponents that currently have a winning record. One of those contests was a Thursday Night (extra randomness on Thursday Night games, for sure) game against Carolina, a game where the Panthers were riddled with key injuries and Cam Newton threw three picks. The other was last week against Seattle. So all the impressive numbers that Philly has put up, all those blowout wins against weaklings – none of that matters in a game like this one. Philly has to step up in class, something they haven’t proven they can do. Second, I’m buying Sean McVay in big games a lot more than Doug Pederson. Pederson’s gameplan against the Seahawks last week was right out of clown college -- not trusting his QB to make plays against a quality defense. McVay, on the other hand, has shown plenty of trust in Jared Goff, and Goff has paid that trust back with wins over quality defensive foes like the Jaguars and Saints. With all the chaos in LA this week (Philly’s been there all week too, affected by the fires), coaching is going to matter a lot on Sunday, and I trust McVay over Pederson in a game where the SU winner equates to the ATS winner. Lastly, the Rams have one SIGNIFICANT edge that doesn’t show up in their statistical profile – in fact, it makes that profile worse! That edge is on special teams, where LA is ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately effect their importance. LA is the better of these two teams right now, and I’m confident they’re ready to take care of business against an overrated foe at home on Sunday. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#119) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, and there were player quotes all over the place that made these same basic points after Garappolo’s first start for Kyle Shanahan. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is going to be priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 2-24 SU in their last 26 games – a true bottom feeder. But the Niners had huge edges against Chicago last Sunday, edges not reflected in the final score because San Fran settled for field goals. But the Niners had a 23-8 first down edge and a 388-147 total yardage edge. Even their defense got re-energized because the offense wasn’t going three-and-out on every drive, on the field for a season low 36 snaps (leaving them very fresh here)! Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner: “I honestly felt like I could play another full game after that game.” Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh: “It is contagious. When the offense is moving the ball you could hear our guys on the sideline. It was the urgency at which they felt they needed to get the ball back for the offense because they were doing so well. It's a team game." Facing a Texans team that has lost five of their last six; looking the part of a passionless squad just playing out the string, look for San Fran to notch their first winning streak since Jim Harbaugh left town! Take the 49ers |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – Philly OVER (#377-378) I understand that both of these teams cashed Under tickets last week, in large part due to strong defensive showings against weak offensive opponents. But make no mistake about it – the Seahawks are an ‘Over’ team these days, and so is Philadelphia! Seattle hasn’t been able to run the ball all year. Russell Wilson has been their leading rusher three times in their last five games. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are at 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry for the season. The Seahawks know perfectly well that they’re not going beat the Eagles by running the football into the teeth of their strong defensive front. This is a Russell Wilson game for Seattle, plain and simple. And, for all the criticism that he has received, Russell Wilson continues to make big plays, week after week. It’s not like Seattle is short on downfield receiving talent with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson combining for 32 receptions of 20+ yards between them. And it’s not like the Seahawks haven’t gone ‘pass first’ before when their running game wasn’t working – they’ve done it in each of the last two seasons, closing out the 2016 regular season on a 9-5 run to the Over and the 2015 campaign featured a 6-2 midseason run to the Over. Seattle’s defense, despite their strong showing last week against the offensively weak 49ers, is an injury riddled MASH unit right now. Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor matter A LOT; a trio of pro bowl candidates that are now sitting on the sidelines. Throw in injuries to Bobby Wagner, Dion Jordan, Shaquill Griffin, Earl Thomas and others, and we’re talking about a Seahawks defense that’s in a world of hurt right now. That’s bad news against Carson Wentz and the red hot Philly offense; a team that has hung 30+ on their foes in each of their last five ballgames. The Eagles haven’t scored more points than any other team in the NFL this year by accident; the #3 offense according to Football Outsiders. And the Eagles – most notably emerging star QB Carson Wentz – gained some valuable experience in a 26-15 loss on this field to Seattle last year. Wentz: “It’s a huge help (having played here last year). … It’s definitely loud. It’s quite the atmosphere. It’s a fun place to play. Most guys have been there now, so that’ll pay dividends in just our week of prep, knowing how much we need to emphasize hand signals and communicating things non-verbally.” In a game where both coaches are well aware that they’ll need to put up points in bunches, look for a high octane, big play filled Shootout on Sunday Night in Seattle. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#370) My clients and I cashed a winner betting AGAINST New Orleans last week, yet I have no hesitation betting ON the Saints this week. What gives? Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week.” That was then, this is now. The Saints, now, have been humbled, off a frustrating loss. It’s surely worth noting that blindly betting Drew Brees off a loss since 2003 has been a major moneywinning proposition: 52-32 ATS (discounting pushes). And the injury riddled Saints defense is getting much healthier. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and LB AJ Klein both returned to the lineup last week. CB Ken Crawley is expected back in the lineup this week and he could be re-joined by rookie standout CB Marshon Lattimore, who missed last weeks’ game. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams 34-13 because the Panthers offense didn’t work. Guess what – despite the 35 points they hung on the Jets last week, the Panthers offense still doesn’t work! Carolina scored on special teams and on defense last week; something I wouldn’t count on happening two weeks in a row. Without the traded Kelvin Benjamin or the injured Curtis Samuel and Greg Olson, Cam Newton completed only 11 of his 28 pass attempts while taking three sacks. They finished the game averaging less than 5.0 yards per play. Jonathan Stewart gained only 26 yards on his 15 carries. Devin Funchess was the only WR to catch a pass. This is not an offense that is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news against an angry, focused Saints team primed to win this one by margin. Carolina’s defense isn’t necessarily as good as advertised either! The Panthers have faced San Fran, Buffalo, Chicago, Tampa (with Ryan Fitzpatrick), Miami and the Jets; all bottom quartile offenses that make the Panthers defensive numbers look at least a notch or two better than they probably are. Take the Saints. |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#371) The public bets against Cleveland every week and wins. The wiseguys bet ON Cleveland every week and lose. This has been going on for the better part of the last two seasons. The Browns are 2-9 ATS this year – dead last in the NFL; even worse than the Broncos, Bucs, Giants or Cardinals. They finished dead last in the NFL last year, covering only three pointspreads in 16 games. Clearly, there is going to be ‘value’ on the Browns after a dismal ATS stretch like this one, but only if they’re not quite as bad as the betting markets would indicate. I genuinely think that’s the case here, especially with star WR Josh Gordon returning to the lineup this week after an extended NFL mandated suspension. Hue Jackson is expected to stick Gordon right into the starting lineup on the other side from Corey Coleman, giving the Browns a pair of big play weapons on the outside. Cleveland has run the ball effectively all year, to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry. The Chargers, despite having Melvin Gordon on the roster, are more than a half yard per carry worse. LA doesn’t stop the run particularly well either, dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Browns run defense is more than a yard and a half better PER CARRY than the Chargers. I’ve NEVER seen that before from a two touchdown underdog in my 19 previous football seasons here in Las Vegas. I understand that Cleveland has had all sorts of ‘never before’s’ and ‘how is this possible’ non-covers over the past two seasons – their betting bandwagon grows smaller and smaller every week. It’s been all about turnovers for the Browns, both this year and last. They’re -17 in turnovers already this season, dead last in the NFL, and they’ve got a young, inexperienced QB in Deshone Kizer who makes more than his fair share of mistakes. If the Browns are -3 in turnovers again this week, they’re not likely to cover. But the Browns didn’t commit a turnover last week. They’re facing the only team they’ve actually beaten in SU fashion over the last two years; knocking off LA last December. And the Chargers are NOT built for covering big pointspreads. This is the first time all year that LA is higher than -7. In fact, it’s the first time since 2014 that they’ve laid more than a TD; not a role that suits them. At -14 over the past three seasons, the Chargers would be 4-39 ATS. At +14 this year, the Browns would have only 3 ATS losses in their first eleven games, instead of the 2-9 ATS mark they current have. This is anything BUT a ‘step-up’ game for the Chargers, coming off their Thanksgiving blowout at Dallas. Now that so many bettors have given up on Cleveland completely, this is the week to step in and expect them to cash for us, with room to spare. Take the Browns. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#326) If experience matters at this time of the year – and I think it does – no team in the country has an edge over the Clemson Tigers. Clemson has played in big games all year – Auburn, at Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at NC State, at South Carolina etc etc. They won all of those games. This is their third consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game; they won each of the first two. Clemson has also played in four college football playoff games over the previous two seasons – the biggest games on the biggest stage that college football has to offer. Miami? Well, they did beat West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year, their first bowl win this decade. And they did dominate in their two biggest games of the season, beating Virginia Tech, then blowing out Notre Dame. Of course, it’s worth noting that both Virginia Tech and Notre Dame stumbled badly down the stretch. And it’s worth noting that both of those games came at home. This game, of course, will be played in Charlotte. And when we look at what happened to the Hurricanes away from home this year, it’s not hard to make a case for betting against them! Miami’s starting QB Malik Rosier got benched for a series last week at Pitt; Miami’s first loss of the season. For the season, Rosier completed only 55% of his throws. Leading rusher Mark Walton got hurt, and his replacement, Travis Homer is not a ‘grind it out between the tackles’ type runner. No receiver has more than 45 catches or 583 receiving yards. This is NOT an elite offense or a particularly confident QB, bad news against what is most assuredly an elite defense. Brent Venables stop unit is, once again, ranked in the top six in the country in yardage allowed, points allowed and sacks. There are two other key factors in play for me here. First comes freshness. Miami hasn’t had a week off since mid-September, now playing their 11th consecutive game without a bye. Clemson had a mid-October bye and they faced lowly Citadel two weeks ago, by far the fresher of these two squads at this late stage of the season. Second, Miami has struggles away from home; Clemson does not. The ‘Canes gained just 232 yards at Pitt last week; the rare double digit favorite to lost outright despite a turnover advantage. They were lucky to beat a 5-6 squad Florida State, had to rally from behind to knock off a 3-9 North Carolina team and lost by double digits to a 5-7 Pitt squad. Let’s be real. Miami’s success this season has been about the Turnover Chain more than any other factor. In their final six games, the ‘Canes created 21 turnovers; with 29 takeaways on the season. The offense turned it over only 12 times all year. Teams that live off turnover margin aren’t primed for success against a Clemson offense that, like Miami, only gave it away 12 times in 12 games. It was 58-0 the last time these two teams met, and I don’t think the gap has closed significantly……Tigers roll. Take Clemson. |
|||||||
12-02-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -11 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Florida Atlantic (#316) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Florida Atlantic won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-31 margin. It wasn’t as close as the 38 point final margin of victory would indicate – the game was 41-7 at halftime, and, quite frankly, was all but finished with a 24-0 Owls lead by the end of the first quarter. FAU scored on their first 11 drives, gaining 804 yards on just 72 snaps: 447 rushing and 357 passing. So what’s different for the rematch? Not much! Florida Atlantic has size, speed and talent edges all over the field. North Texas didn’t show any more ability to compete when stepping up in class on the highway in ugly losses at Iowa and SMU; a defense that has not fared well against speed and tempo. The Mean Green defense has generated only seven interceptions all season, and they’ve been feasting on the weak to get here. Each of their last three games came against an opponent that ranked #121 or worse (out of 129 teams) in passing efficiency this season. FAU ranks #34 on that list. North Texas can’t realistically hope to stop an FAU offense with big play weapons all over the place. Five different rushers and five different pass catchers had TD’s of 40+ yards this year for the Owls. But can the Mean Green trade points here? They are balanced on offense and QB Mason Fine threw for nearly 3400 yards with a 27-11 TD –INT ratio for the season. But, quite literally, everything North Texas has been able to accomplish offensively this season has been the result of a remarkably weak slate of foes, a schedule that is ranked #117th according to Sagarin’s methodology. I do NOT expect the back door to be open here any more than it was open in that first meeting because FAU isn’t likely to stop scoring…..Take Florida Atlantic |
|||||||
11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#268) This is truly the mother of all spot plays in the NFL this year. We’ve got the LA Rams, humbled and hungry; returning home with something to prove off an ugly loss at Minnesota, outscored 24-0 after their opening touchdown drive. We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. Yet the pointspread here is less than a field goal – the Saints have developed a fairly significant betting bandwagon over the course of their extended run. LA isn’t going to hang their heads in shame off last week’s loss, as these quotes clearly tell us. QB Jared Goff: “We’ve responded to every bit of adversity we’ve faced so far, and I expect no different.” Head coach Sean McVay: “We didn't do enough things to win the football game, and it starts with me. We talk about it every single week, how you've got to be ready to go because it is a very humbling league. We definitely got humbled today by a very good team." DT Aaron Donald: “Their offensive line couldn’t block us one-on-one. Case (Keenum) just did a good job of moving around in the pocket.” McVay is 10% correct about the Rams ability to bounce back from adversity. Following a Week 2 loss to the Redskins, LA bounced back with consecutive victories; scoring 76 points in the process. Following a ‘crushing’ turnover filled home loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, the Rams won their next two games before the bye by a 60-17 combined score, including an impressive double digit road win at Jacksonville. I trust LA to bounce back strong because they’ve already shown us they can. That Aaron Donald quote about the Rams pass rush and Case Keenum’s mobility matters here as well. Drew Brees doesn’t have that same mobility, and he’s been feasting on the weak, beating the likes of the Dolphins, the Lions (in a Detroit turnover debacle), the Packers (with Brett Hundley), the Bears, the Bucs, the Bills and a Redskins team with injuries all over their defense in their last seven victories. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – San Francisco OVER (#264-265) There are two key factors in play for me in this game; an Over waiting for kickoff. First, the Seahawks just morphed into an Over team. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Russell Wilson has been their leading rusher three times I their last four games. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are at 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry for the season. Last week, they finally gave up on the run, with only 17 carries from the backs, compared to 52 runs/throws from Wilson. That’s a big deal, because Russell Wilson makes big plays. It’s not like this team is short on downfield receiving talent with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson combining for 29 receptions of 20+ yards between them. And it’s not like the Seahawks haven’t gone ‘pass first’ before when their running game wasn’t working – they’ve done it in each of the last two seasons, closing out the 2016 regular season on a 9-5 run to the Over and the 2015 campaign featured a 6-2 midseason run to the Over. Second, I want Kyle Shanahan’s offense off a bye week against a Seahawks defense that is riddled with injuries. Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor matter A LOT; a trio of pro bowl candidates that are now sitting on the sidelines. Throw in injuries to Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed, Michael Wilhoite, Shaquill Griffin and others, and we’re talking about a Seahawks defense that’s in a world of hurt right now. Kyle Shanahan got the 49ers job because of his track record as a brilliant offensive mind and a top notch play caller. San Fran hasn’t had the offensive personnel in place to implement much of Shanahan’s playbook, but their just concluded bye week gave them a chance to tweak and adjust. Shanahan also made the right call to keep CJ Beathard as the starting QB, not Jimmy Garappolo, with the 49ers coming off their best offensive game of the season – a 31 point outburst -- prior to their bye. Shanahan: “I did go into the weekend and all week and into Monday considering Jimmy But definitely the way that last game went, I knew it was going to make it easier for me to stick with what we’ve been doing, because I think we’ve made a stride in that way. Beathard: “Being a rookie in an NFL offense and starting the first year, the more you play, the more your playbook expands, the more you can do. This will be my fifth start. I can handle a little more week in, week out. Coach knows that as well.” Tight end George Kittle: “C.J., he’s rolling right now. It’s going to stay that way.” Seattle is still being totaled like the defensive minded, offensively anemic squad they were earlier in the campaign. San Fran has scored 10 points or less in half of their games this season, not a squad that the markets are excited about betting Overs with. But it all together and we’re looking at a particularly strong Over wager at the current number, worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Colorado +10.5 v. Utah | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 17 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado (#187) This pointspread is simply out of whack with both current realities and recent history. Let’s start with this. Utah and Colorado play close games. Each of the six meetings – all regular season finales, like this one -- between these two schools since they joined the PAC-12 have been decided by a touchdown or less. Then we’ve got the freshness factor. Both of these teams need one win to clinch bowl eligibility – the winner goes bowling while the loser stays home for the holidays, as simple as that. Colorado had last week off, a MUCH needed bye after playing eleven consecutive games to open the season. Utah had no such break – their last bye came in September. And the Utes are coming off a truly dispiriting defeat, allowing ten points in the final MINUTE to blow the game at Washington. And THAT came on the heels of a turnover debacle at home to Washington State; a game they trailed throughout. Utah is 1-6 in their last seven PAC-12 games. Their defense isn’t forcing turnovers. They’ve struggled against the run and the pass in recent weeks. They’ve lost SU on this field to Wazzou, Stanford and Arizona State, the latter as ten point favorites. This is not a team to be laying double digits with right now. Nor is this a series that has been friendly to favorites. The quotes out of Boulder have been nothing but positive all week, a re-energized team with a clear goal for Saturday Night. Coach Mike MacIntyre (who has a pretty good track record in games like this one, dating back to his tenure at San Jose St): “This university has a great history. For years, you didn't even think about them not going to a bowl game. That tradition is here, which it should be. Last year, the guys got it started and this year they want to keep it going. I know some of the guys that were here last year have been calling and saying, 'Don't let it end.' That would be extremely important for us to keep it going. ... I think it affects the overall view of the program. Momentum-wise on recruiting and things like that, I think it makes a bigger deal." The Buffs have a great running back in Philip Lindsey, who entered the weekend leading the nation in rushing attempts. "I'm a soldier, period. I take what I have to do. I'm going to continue to do that. That's it. I just want to win for the program, for my teammates and my family. That's what it's all about. I've learned that when you play hard, good things come your way." Lindsey is exactly what I want in a game like this one; a back who can grind out first downs and shorten the game for this double digit underdog. And I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend at least a little taste of the moneyline at +330 or higher. Big Ticket: Take Colorado. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | UNLV +3 v. Nevada | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#181) Reno is 2-9 this year. They’ve lost the battle for the Fremont Cannon in each of their last two tries at home, despite the fact that they had the better team both times. In fact, this series has shown no homefield edge whatsoever – the road squad is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS over the last five years. Yet the betting markets seem concerned that the Rebels won’t be up to the challenge as they try to reach bowl eligibility for the first time in the Tony Sanchez era. I’m not buying that argument. First and foremost, this young Rebels team has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all year: 5-0 ATS, including SU wins as underdogs at Idaho, Fresno and New Mexico. Last week’s win against the Lobos was particularly confidence inspiring, as frosh QB Armani Rogers led the team down the field in the final minute for the game winning touchdown. Secondly, Reno has no defense. They’ve already lost a pair of games where the offense has put up more than 40 points, including one on this field against a 4-7 Air Force team in the midst of their worst season this decade. Three different opponents have rushed for 200+ yards AND thrown for 200+ yards against this stop unit in their last six ballgames. They’ve allowed 30 or more points nine times in eleven games. I expect the Rebels surprisingly potent offense to march up and down the field. Third, bowl eligibility matters – A LOT – for this UNLV squad, bowl free since 2013 (and the conference they play in, as UNLV is the only remaining team from the Mountain West that still can get there). Head coach Tony Sanchez: “Every game at UNLV is significant. You are talking about a team that has been bleeding for a long time. Every chance we have to move the program forward, to show progress, to get ourselves in the conversation to get a bowl game, it’s a big, big deal.” UNLV senior defensive lineman Mike Hughes, talking about the humiliation UNLV suffered in a 45-10 season ending home loss to Reno last year: “There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Last year was embarrassing. Seeing (the cannon) rolled away at the end of the game, that’s a picture that has been in my mind the whole year. I’m definitely looking forward to bringing it back.” Live dog here! Take UNLV. |
|||||||
11-25-17 | Georgia -11 v. Georgia Tech | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#167) Think Georgia is looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game next week? Think again! Kirby Smart was embarrassed by the Bulldogs defensive effort against the Yellow Jackets option last year in a 28-27 home loss and vowed not to let it happen again. Georgia Tech rushed for 5.4 yards per carry in that ballgame while gaining a whopping 164 yards on their six pass completions, rallying from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to win. Kirby Smart got this job because of his ‘defensive guru’ reputation. Georgia’s defense has certainly been an elite unit all season long – only the uptempo, balanced offenses of Missouri and Auburn have produced 20 points against the Bulldogs this season. And Smart has been working on stopping the Yellow Jackets option since the summer, spending time every single week on Monday’s working to stop the Ramblin’ Wreck triple option attack. Smart’s quote, about his preparation defending the triple option this year: “I felt like you have to familiarize yourself. Really the players, if nothing more than your scout team, can only be so efficient doing something they don’t do all the time, but they can be as efficient as possible. So those Mondays have been really critical for them, those Mondays have been critical for our young players who haven’t been exposed to it. We have worked really hard on that. And then we spent some time in the off week.” Georgia Tech has multiple issues here. First, they don’t have many weapons, with QB Taquon Marshall carrying the ball more than any other Yellow Jacket QB this decade, by a fairly wide margin. Marshall has shown signs of wearing down from the heavy workload of late – the Yellow Jackets bye week came back on the first Saturday of October. Marshall is a master at breaking tackles, a big part of his success. But given the Bulldogs elite quartet of linebackers – a group that could all play on Sunday’s in the next year or two – I don’t expect Marshall to break many tackles here, which means the Georgia Tech offense is likely to struggle. That’s particularly bad news for Paul Johnson’s squad because there’s ample reason to think the Yellow Jackets defense is poised for a rough day as well. That defense let go of the rope in an ugly second half run-out at Duke last week. Now they’ll be facing a powerful rushing squad – Nick Chubb and Sony Michel average nearly seven yards per carry between them – combined with a potent passing game (Jake Fromm is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt). No surprise here if this game gets ugly for the home underdog…..Take Georgia. |
|||||||
11-24-17 | California +7 v. UCLA | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take California (#143) The betting markets have done exactly what we expect them to do when a coach gets fired before the end of the season; a classic knee jerk reaction. That’s why the Bruins are still laying a full touchdown here in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone win by any sort of a margin. UCLA offensive coordinator Jeff Fisch will serve as the interim coach this week. Reading between the lines from the players quotes after the firing, this doesn’t feel like a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of effort for the home favorite, even with the potential for a bowl berth on the line with a victory here. Frankly, given UCLA’s struggles this season and their ongoing coaching search, a lower tier bowl bid isn’t much of a motivator for this squad. And given the season long struggles of the UCLA defense (particularly against the run, ranked #128), this is not an easy team to lay points with regardless of the circumstances. The only pointspread of -7 or higher that UCLA has covered all year came in Week 2 against Hawaii. Cal beat UCLA 36-10 as an underdog last year in Sonny Dykes final game with the team, and there’s no reason to think that the Bears can’t do it again in 2017! Cal came out of their bye last week with another shutdown defensive effort and their strong secondary matches up fairly well with Josh Rosen and the UCLA passing game. The Bears, like UCLA, are playing for a bowl bid, but there’s no questioning Cal’s motivation in Justin Wilcox’s first year – this team needs the extra practices and would be thrilled with a minor bowl invite, unlike their counterparts on the other sideline. Cal QB Ross Bowers has only thrown four INT’s in his last seven ballgames after throwing eight INT’s in his first four starts, making better decisions with the football. And Bears RB Patrick Laird is up to a full 6.0 yards per carry now; off a 7.7 ypc effort against Stanford last week; primed to run the football down the Bruins collective throats on Friday Night. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline for this one, with +230 or higher widely available as I write this. Take Cal. |
|||||||
11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the LA Chargers (#109) Whatever the Dallas Cowboys were a month ago, they aren’t that same team any more. Sure, the suspension of Zeke Elliott matters. But the injuries to pro bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and star linebacker Sean Lee are far more impactful when it comes to the Cowboys current form. In the two games since Smith and Lee got hurt, the Cowboys lost 27-7 and 37-9. Dak Prescott’s passer rating in those two games was a 55.4 – Deshone Kizer territory – and the Cowboys offense managed to put only a single TD on the scoreboard in eight quarters of football. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense was gashed for 215 rushing yards at 6.5 ypc last week on the heels of 132 yards on the ground from the Falcons the week before. Even worse, the Cowboys allowed seven touchdowns in nine red zone tries over that two week span. Tyron Smith isn’t likely to suit up here and even if he does, I’m not expecting ‘pro bowl’ form. Sean Lee isn’t coming back from injury just yet, meaning that we can expect the Cowboys defensive struggles to continue. All of Dallas’s season long stats are lying right now – this team has lost their collective mojo and I don’t trust Jason Garrett to fix it on a short week. Right now, the Chargers are arguably the best team in the AFC West; playing far better than their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, since their 0-4 start, LA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming in competitive games at New England and Jacksonville – no shame there. San Diego’s pass rush has been devastating; a top notch defensive ballclub. Philip Rivers continues to make plays downfield on a weekly basis while explosive RB Melvin Gordon has averaged better than five yards per carry over the last three weeks. The betting markets have adjusted the Cowboys down and the Chargers up off last week’s showings. Frankly, they haven’t adjusted enough in a game where the SU win for LA equates to a pointspread cover. Take the Chargers. |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#455) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. When we get a chance to bet against the Dolphins in a pick em priced game, we should have no hesitation making that bet. Miami has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks, a team with the worst yards per play differential in the NFL – they gain 4.5 but allow 5.7, even worse numbers than the dismal Giants, Browns or 49ers. Those numbers aren’t fraudulent. The Dolphins have stolen more than their fair share of wins they didn’t deserve this season (missed field goal by the Chargers, Matt Cassel at QB vs. the Titans, very lucky comeback win vs. the Falcons, Matt Moore getting hot late vs. the Jets). This is a squad that could easily be sitting at 1-8 or 0-9 and being priced in the same range New York, Cleveland and San Fran are priced in the markets at this stage of the campaign. The Bucs defense showed pride last week in a dominating showing against the Jets, giving a disappointing squad a real spark of life heading into their matchup with the ‘lots of quit’ Dolphins. From a talent standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams – Tampa has the playmakers on both sides of the ball. And frankly, we should expect Jay Cutler mistakes, and when those mistakes happen, I’m not expecting the home team to respond well…. Take the Bucs. |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants OVER 45 | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 14 m | Show | |
Take KC – New York Giants OVER (#453-454) I don’t trust this Chiefs defense one iota. KC has gone 1-3 SU since their 5-0 start because they haven’t been able to stop anybody. A struggling Raiders offense that hadn’t worked in more than a month picked apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. The following week, Oakland was shut down again. Then a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. The following week, Denver’s offense couldn’t move the football. Then the Chiefs faced Dallas right before their bye. It was more of the same: four TD’s in four red zone tries behind a balanced attack. Even after the bye, make no mistake about it – KC does NOT have a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. From a yards per play standpoint, KC is tied for #31 in the NFL on defense. And the Giants offense that finally moved the football last week: 19 first downs, 374 yards, 5.9 yards per play; scoring two TD’s in three red zone tries. The Chiefs are tied with the Saints for with the most explosive offense in the league, averaging 6.2 yards per play. That’s bad news for the Giants defense – they’re the ones tied with KC at #31 in the NFL, allowing a full six yards per play. The G-men have shown plenty of defensive quit in recent weeks, allowing 82 points in their last two ballgames. The G-men are a veteran squad that expected better this season; showing a clear disconnect with the coaching staff. Expect a handful of big play TD’s and a minimal number of red zone stops….. Take the Over. |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461) From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done. Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp. A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason. Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making. Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC. Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline. And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice. Talk about going through the ringer! Tom Savage is god-awful. The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident. In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game. They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5). All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread. Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level. There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there. Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan. The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down. Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation. The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season. Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you. But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week. They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.” Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career! This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday. Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Arizona University +2.5 v. Oregon | 28-48 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#365) I want my money ON Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats any time they face a defense that is vulnerable. The best QB in the country that nobody is talking about did it again in their last road game, rallying Arizona from a 28-6 deficit to tie the game 35-35 at USC before a late Trojans score doomed their chances. And Tate did it again last week, torching Oregon State for 49 points, bouncing back nicely from the USC defeat. RichRod knows that his QB has probably saved his job, improving from 3-9 last year to 7-3 this season. His quote: “(that can happen) when you’re getting the kind of quarterback play we’ve gotten out of Khalil.” Despite barely playing the first four games, Tate ranks seventh in the nation in rushing (1,293 yards)and leads the PAC-12 in passing efficiency (155.5) – better than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen; both likely first round draft choices next spring. Oregon head coach Willie Taggert knows what he’s up against too. Asked about his defensive gameplan, here is Taggert’s quote: “Pray. No one has stopped him yet this year. He’s a heck of a talent. Big-time football player and is really good with the ball in his hand.” The Ducks have lost four out of five since starting QB Justin Herbert got hurt, with all four losses coming by 17 points or more – non-competitive blowouts. Herbert could be back this week (officially a ‘game time decision’) and the markets are likely to move significantly based on his availability. But I’m not convinced he’s going to be anywhere near 100% if he does get the start. If he doesn’t the backup Burmeister has been nothing short of awful (14 points or less in all four recent losses and a 2-6 TD-INT ratio). And regardless of which QB gets the start, even off a bye week, Oregon’s defense has been gashed repeatedly with some particularly ugly numbers against the run. Wrong team favored here. Take Arizona. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#413) Don’t be fooled for a minute by the recent run of success from the Ole Miss Rebels. Yes, Ole Miss has notched back-2-back wins with their backup QB behind center, knocking off Kentucky and Louisiana- Lafayette. But the Rebels defense was torched in both games. The Rajin’ Cajuns just hung 427 yards on them in Oxford, despite playing without four starters who were suspended on gameday. Every SEC foe they’ve faced has scored at least 34 points against the Rebels defense. And every SEC foe has gained at least 400 yards against them; even offensively challenged squads like LSU and Vandy. That’s particularly bad news for the Rebels considering that Texas A&M finally has their starting quarterback healthy and back on the field again. Remember back on the first weekend of the season when Texas A&M got out to a 31-3 lead before blowing the game against UCLA? QB Nick Starkel got hurt and left that contest with the Aggies leading by three touchdowns. Frankly, the offense wasn’t the same without him. Starkel was named the full time starter again last week in any easy, confidence building tuneup victory over New Mexico; a game that was 48-0 at halftime. Three Aggies receivers had more than 100 receiving yards in that ballgame, yet the markets have basically made no power rating adjustment to the return of Starkel to the lineup, sending frosh Kelly Mund back to the bench where he belongs. Ole Miss defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff knows what’s coming: “[Starkel] can pinpoint the ball. He's got a big arm. He can make every throw, and they're going to challenge us vertically." That’s particularly bad news considering that Ole Miss can’t stop the run either, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry for the season. Ole Miss hasn’t had a bye week since mid-September, not exactly a fresh stop unit these days. And they’ve got their biggest rival up next on a short week, prepping for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State – the only game that really matters for interim head coach Matt Luke’s future with the program. The Rebels lost their NFL caliber starting QB when Shea Patterson got hurt. Backup Jordan Ta’amu has played great in his absence so far, in three games against weak defenses. Texas A&M leads the SEC in sacks – they’ve got a nasty pass rush, primed to make life miserable for inexperienced backup QB’s. And if the Rebels fall behind here (as I expect they will), things could get ugly. Coach Luke: “You don’t want to get in a drop-back game where you’re throwing it and they know you’re throwing it….. They’re an aggressive, attacking defense and force you to make mistakes. It’s important we play really well and limit the negative plays.” Good luck with that, coach. Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
|||||||
11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#341) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in three previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play, and I have no hesitation about using it again this week as Texas travels to Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 15 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-4. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, expected to split snaps with Shane Buechele. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” West Virginia ranks #93 in the country at stopping the run, so having the mobile Ehlinger available is a big deal for the Longhorns! Defensively, we’ve already seen Texas have success against the likes of Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold. Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen knows what he’s up against: “Their defense is probably the best we’ve faced all year. Just a whole bunch of talent.” West Virginia’s defense? Not so much talent……. Take Texas. |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#265) Three basic points here. First, the Lions aren’t good enough to be laying double digits to anybody. Second, the Lions are in a truly miserable spot for any double digit favorite. And third, if there’s one week to be betting ON the Browns, this is the week! Let’s start from the top. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered two pointspreads – both on the road in divisional matchups against backup quarterbacks. They haven’t been favored by even a full field goal in any game this season. Detroit has won 13 games over the past two seasons. None of those 13 victories has come by more than two touchdowns. The Lions are most assuredly not a blowout team in the Jim Caldwell/Matthew Stafford era. Let’s not forget that Detroit’s -0.7 yards per play differential ranks #30 in the NFL, tied with winless San Fran. They’ve only reached 100 rushing yards once all season. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 26 times already. The Lions red zone offense ranks #27 in touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals. That matters A LOT in a pointspread range like this one. Detroit brought their ‘A’ game on Monday Night, winning for only the second time in their last 26 tries at Lambeau Field, a huge, emotionally satisfying victory. Up next? A road trip to face another division rival at Soldier Field in Chicago, followed by another divisional showdown against Minnesota. This is the very definition of a flat spot for a team with no track record of covering pointspreads in this role. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Cleveland Browns, a winless team coming off their bye week – a long term, positive expectation wagering situation. The Browns problems have been two-fold. First, their own red zone execution has been abysmal: dead last on defense, #28 on offense. Secondly, turnovers have killed this squad; an NFL high 21 giveaways compared to a bottom quartile nine takeaways. A bye week can only help in that regard, and the Browns are coming out of the bye as healthy as they’ve been all year. Look for Cleveland’s strong run defense to make the Lions offense one-dimensional . Look for the Lions to come out flat. Expect the back door to be wide open if Detroit does take a two score lead. And expect the hapless Cleveland Browns to cash our winning bet – let’s not forget that four of their eight losses have come by exactly three points……Take the Browns. |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Bengals v. Titans -4.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#262) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner betting against the Bengals last week in their 23-7 loss to Jacksonville. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. Numbers have been lightly edited to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last five games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -9 for the season – their defense has only recovered one fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays.” The Bengals didn’t notch a single sack for the second time in their last three games against the Jags. They lost the ‘penalty yardage’ battle for the sixth straight week. They lost by double digits, SU and ATS, despite winning the turnover battle. And four the fourth time in eight games, Cinci was held to two TD’s or less; an offense that isn’t primed to suddenly get untracked here, even with AJ Green expected back on the field. Plain and simple – I have no hesitation betting against the Bungles these days, especially in games where they’ll need to win (or come pretty darn close) to cover the spread. Make no mistake about it – this Titans team has underachieved so far, in large part due to their red zone failures on offense, ranked near the bottom of the NFL in red zone TD percentage. The return of #1 draft choice WR Corey Davis from an injury absence can only help in that regard, especially since it should open things up for beefy backs Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry between the tackles. Titans WR Rishard Matthews, talking about how having Davis in the lineup will affect their offense: “A ton. That’s his job, is to come in here and be a playmaker. That’s what we all expect him to be. That’s what I expect him to come here and do right away. We got a little piece of it in the beginning of the year. He’s back and ready to go, so expecting big things.” Davis’s own quote: “This is the turnaround right here. I feel it.” There’s no betting bandwagon for Tennessee these days – their only pointspread cover since September came on a late garbage time TD with less than a minute to play against the Colts. This team is primed for a breakout game, Cinci is an ideal opponent to face right now, and the pointspread is downright cheap given the difference in both ability and mentality between these two squads right now. Take the Titans. |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#264) This is the mother of all bad spots for the road favorite Saints, and the mother of all good spots for the home underdog Bills. The matchups work in Buffalo’s favor here, on both sides of the football. And yet public perception is down on Buffalo, while market support for New Orleans is sky high right now – my power rating number has the Bills as chalk here. When the matchups, situation and value all point in the same direction, we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Yes, the Saints have won six in a row since their 0-2 start. But this is not a team that is going 14-2, destined to never lose another game in the regular season. The quotes coming out of the New Orleans locker room have been pretty clear. The Saints know full well that they are not an elite ballclub. And they’re also a notch or two ‘fat and happy’ following a blowout home victory over their divisional rivals. Buffalo in November – even with fair conditions and gametime temperatures expected to be above 40 degrees – is not the Saints optimal venue; a team built for domes and turf. And the Saints are anything but battle tested during this winning streak where just about everything has broken right for them. This is NOT a ‘max intensity’ spot for the road team. The Saints six game winning streak has been mostly ‘right place, right time’. They faced Carolina before the Panthers fixed their broken offense. They got Jay Cutler in London. They got Detroit on a day where the Saints scored three non-offensive touchdowns. They got Brett Hundley in his NFL starting debut and Mitch Trubisky in his third career start. Last week, it was an ailing Jameis Winston before he gave way to tired retread Ryan Fitzpatrick. That, folks, is anything BUT a tough slate. Tyrod Taylor will be the best QB this team has seen in more than a month! The Saints defense has been great against the pass facing mostly bottom tier quarterbacks. But despite all of those weak QB’s and weak passing games that they’ve faced, New Orleans is still struggling to stop the run. That’s bad news against LeSean McCoy and the Bills power rushing game. McCoy wasn’t fresh last Thursday against the Jets, but the extra rest has him primed for a big bounceback this week. The Bills should get leading receiver TE Charles Clay back on the field here. And the Saints braintrust won’t have any film to watch trying to figure out how the Bills are going to use recently acquired Kelvin Benjamin at WR this week, giving Taylor another downfield weapon. The Bills pass defense has better overall numbers than New Orleans, with a 76.6 QB rating allowed. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home this year, gaining a legitimate edge when playing in Orchard Park. Coming off their debacle last Thursday Night, facing road trips to KC and LA, followed by the Patriots over the next three weeks, this IS a max intensity spot for the home underdog. Take the +3, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game that the Bills are primed to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#165) The pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know, with the Fighting Irish installed as road favorites despite Miami’s strong showing on this field against Virginia Tech last week. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team -- period. Their 8-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. Most concerning, the Hurricanes have struggled to control the flow in the trenches, very bad news against the dominant Notre Dame offensive line. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in four of their last five games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their eighth consecutive game since that unscheduled bye, and I expect it to show as fatigue builds up after halftime. Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier is anything BUT an elite collegiate signal caller. Over the past two games, Rosier is just 27-60 passing with four interceptions. Even playing with a lead against the Hokies last week, Rosier couldn’t avoid key mistakes. And it’s surely worth noting that in their previous two games, the Canes were outrushed 440-198 against Syracuse and North Carolina – not ACC elites on defense, to put it mildly. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Notre Dame in their 49-14 blowout over USC last month. Let me use an excerpt from that write-up here, with numbers lightly edited to reflect current realities: “Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status”. “The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays”. “Notre Dame ranks #4 in the nation in rushing yards and #1 in the nation in yards per carry, averaging a full seven yards every time they hand the football off. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.7 ypc.” All eight Notre Dame wins this year have come by double digit margins. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks even better now, with the Bulldogs ranked #1 by the playoff committee; having won all of THEIR other games by two touchdowns or more. And don’t be fooled by the ‘competitive’ final score in the Notre Dame game last week. The Fighting Irish led by 32 before Brian Kelly pulled his starters, leading to three late ‘meaningless’ touchdowns for Wake (meaningless for the game flow, meaning FULL for the pointspread result). Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers six times this season, forcing at least one turnover in every single game. Meanwhile their low risk offense has only turned the ball over twice in their last six games combined! If Miami sells out to stop the run, Brandon Wimbush can beat them deep. If they keep their safeties back to prevent the deep balls, the Irish will run the ball down their collective throats. Look for the Irish to get one step closer to the playoff picture with a comfortable win here. Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Virginia v. Louisville -11 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Louisville (#164) We learned a few things about Virginia in their last road contest, a poorly played defeat at Pitt. First, while this team was REALLY hungry to gain bowl eligibility, they were cognizant that it wasn’t going to be their only opportunity to do so. The Cavs got that monkey off their backs last week, pulling the big upset over Georgia Tech and notching their sixth win. Their last winning season and bowl bid came back in 2011 – not a player nor a coach with the program had achieved that goal before. It was an intense back and forth game, followed by an intense celebration. I’m expecting the Cavaliers to be relatively flat this week, kind of like they were at Pitt; a game that broke wrong early and didn’t produce much fight late. I do not trust QB Kurt Benkert to make plays on the road against a solid defense. Benkert’s numbers in ACC play aren’t very good: 53% completions and 5.3 yards per attempt average, compared to 66% and 7.2 ypp in non-conference play. Virginia is not a team loaded with playmaking weapons for Benkert to hit downfield – this is a dink and dunk offense. And the Cavs defense must make the transition from facing an option attack to facing Bobby Petrino and Lamar Jackson running the spead with extra time to prepare. I do not expect that to be an easy transition for Bronco Mendenhall’s stop unit to make. Louisville went into their bye week sitting in last place in the ACC Atlantic Division, something that did not sit well with them during their extra time off. They also still remember Virginia’s near upset last year as 33.5 point underdogs. I’m expecting a focused Louisville squad on Saturday, primed to close out their three game season ending stretch against Virginia, Syracuse and Kentucky with some fireworks. There’s no Cardinals betting bandwagon at. Louisville has yet to cover a single pointspread as a favorite in 2017, which leads to cheap pointspreads like this one by the time we get to mid-November. Yes, Louisville is a notch or two down from last year’s 9-4 squad, and yes, Virginia is a notch or two better. But Louisville was -33.5 on the road at Virginia last year. This year they’re -11 at home; a FOUR TD power rating adjustment from the 2016 meeting. That’s too much of an adjustment, and -11 (or anything close) is too cheap! The reigning Heisman winner is primed for a breakout showing….. Take Louisville. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#143) I understand that the Spartans are a very popular ‘public’ choice in early start action on Saturday, while the wiseguys are clearly taking the Ohio State side. That’s fine – I’ll stand with the Joes against the Pros when it comes to this matchup! Mark Dantonio has coached circles around Urban Meyer in every recent meeting. Sparty was a 3 TD underdog last year against Ohio St. They lost 17-16. In 2015, Sparty was +16.5 on this field in Columbus and won outright 17-14. 2014? Michigan State hung 37 on the Buckeyes, the most Ohio State allowed all season. 2013? Michigan St knocked off Meyer and the Buckeyes in the Big 10 Championship Game, winning by double digits as the underdog. In 2012, it was a 17-16 slugfest. In the five previous Dantonio – Meyer meetings, Ohio State has only been LEADING by more than two touchdowns for a total of five minutes, back in the 2014 game, and they’ve never won by that margin. It’s been a tight series, even in years where Ohio State has won the national championship, and even when Sparty went 4-8 last year. Michigan State is getting better as the season progresses. Their young defense has grown up in a hurry, and QB Brian Lewerke has shown dramatic improvement from his early season play, coming off back-2-back 400 yard passing games. Ohio State, on the other hand, has just seen their defense get shredded in back-2-back weeks, giving up 243 rushing yards to Iowa last week as a 17-17 tie turned into a 55-24 loss. That came just one week after Penn State hung 38 on them right here at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes still have all kinds of elite defensive talent, but it’s not the most confident stop unit in the world these days. And Meyer is navigating tricky waters this week when it comes to motivation for bouncing back. We saw some quit in Ohio State last week, and for an entire roster that has never been out of the college football playoff discussion this early before, there are legitimate questions about their motivation between now and the Michigan game. All the stats, the season long power ratings and the statistical profiles force this pointspread to be where it is; out of whack with current reality. Joes seem to recognize this more than pros when it comes to this matchup. Be sure to take at least a little taste of the moneyline in this one…..Take Michigan State. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Duke -2.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#141) I’ve got two basic rationales for a wager on Duke in early start action on Saturday. First, spot advantages don’t get much bigger than this one for the Blue Devils. Second, Duke is primed to shut down the Black Knights more than their defensive statistical profile might indicate; offering us line value even with the Blue Devils priced as short road chalk here. Let’s start with the spot. After a grueling stretch of nine straight weeks with a game, the Blue Devils finally got a bye last week to rest and recuperate. Duke won their first four, then lost their next five. Their chance for bowl eligibility -- salvaging their season following that 4-0 start – rests with this game, this week, and they know it. I expect Duke to bring maximum intensity here. The same cannot be said for Army. At 7-2, they’ve already clinched a rare bowl bid, and the Black Knights are coming off their biggest win of the season; a 21-0 shutout over Air Force. Army’s seniors had been winless against their rivals, and the Black Knights didn’t need to throw a single pass all afternoon, playing from ahead – it was a max intensity game played under advantageous circumstances. While this Army squad is every bit as good as last year’s team, let’s not forget two things about the state of the program. First, last year’s 8-5 season was their one and only winning campaign of the 21st century. And second, they’ve been favored by double digits in four of their seven wins – it’s not like the Black Knights have been knocking off ACC caliber foes to get to 7-2. In fact, their win over Air Force was their first as an underdog; favored by at least six points in every other game that they won. Duke beat Army 44-3 in 2015 and 13-6 last year. Note the common theme – Army’s offense didn’t work against the Blue Devils defense. I expect that to be the case this year as well. David Cutcliffe’s squad preps for the option every year, because they face Georgia Tech in conference every year. Cutcliffe usually schedules another option team like Army the previous two years or Navy back in 2013, when a nine win Middies squad suffered their worst loss of the season, 35-7, against Duke. Duke has pulled off a pair of outright upsets against Georgia Tech in the last three seasons as well; clearly a ‘bet-on’ team when they face option attacks (6-1 ATS L7 tries). Take Duke. |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 34 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#111) As we saw so clearly again on Monday Night, teams playing with a backup QB behind center tend to struggle against the better defenses that they face. We can expect that once again on Thursday as Drew Stanton and the Cardinals face off against the still elite Seahawks defense on a short week. Drew Stanton got ample playing time behind center for the Cardinals when they lost at home 36-6 in their 2015 season finale against Seattle. Stanton was the starter when the Cards lost 19-3 to the Seahawks in 2014. And those are Drew Stanton’s two previous career outings against Seattle – both downright ugly defeats in which Arizona’s offense didn’t work one iota. So what changes on this short week? Not much for Arizona, from an offensive standpoint. Bruce Arians got a CAREER high 37 carries from Adrian Peterson on Sunday; bad news for an aging back on a short week. In a similar spot last Thursday – off a particularly heavy workload -- LeSean McCoy gained only 25 yards on 12 carries in an ugly loss for the Bills. Bruce Arians, talking about his primary offensive weapon right now: “We’ll see how he feels …. I wish we had a full week. Obviously, we won’t be able to feed him that many times on Thursday night.” Here’s what Stanton had to say about the Cardinals run-heavy gameplan at San Francisco last Sunday: “The game plan was fantastic. I loved it. I loved every single part of it. Each day we got the install, I was getting more and more excited what was going on.” Too bad for Stanton that the Cardinals won’t be able to utilize that same gameplan this week! And there’s truly no comparison between the Seahawks stout defense and the injury riddled Niners defense that AP shredded last week. This is a Seahawks spot, all the way! We’ve seen Seattle dominate on this field repeatedly – three double digit wins and a tie on their last four trips to Arizona. Seattle outgained Washington nearly 2:1 on Sunday, but they missed three field goals and two 2 point conversion tries and committed a franchise record 16 penalties – fixable problems. Coming off that loss, now trailing in the NFC West race, I expect a sense of urgency from the road favorite here. Against the hapless Cardinals, urgency matters in a game the road favorite should win by a TD or more. Take the Seahawks. |
|||||||
11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Green Bay (#474) Remember that Green Bay Packers team that we saw before the bye week losing badly at home to New Orleans? Well, you should probably forget that game – it’s a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Packers team that we saw before the bye is not the one we’re likely to see coming out of the break. But the betting markets aren’t seeing it that way, installing the Lions as road favorites. That, folks, is a downright silly overreaction based pointspread, making the Packers as home dogs on Monday Night the single best bet I’ve seen in the NFL all season, truly worthy of GOY status. Here are my four basic premises. First, the Packers offense, other than Aaron Rodgers, is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Second, Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s more than capable of stepping up here. Third, the Lions aren’t very good and they never win in Green Bay. And fourth, from a situational standpoint, this is a CRUCIAL game for Green Bay in the division; a team that is still expected to get Aaron Rodgers back before the playoffs. Coming off their bye, we can expect the Packers ‘A’ game on Monday Night. The Packers are expected to have all five starting offensive linemen this week. They had one of the five healthy against New Orleans fierce pass rush before the bye. Tackle David Bakhtiari: “Being healthy is key. The bye week was definitely nice — especially with how banged up we were. Us offensive linemen, we were pretty much limping into this bye week. I think that’s big, too.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together.” TE Martellus Bennett will be back on the field as well, key for a young QB like Hundley. Hundley was a projected first rounder coming out of UCLA until a disappointing senior season. Hundley showed well in the preseason, making plays with his feet as well as his arm. Hundley wasn’t good against the Vikings or the Saints in his first two outings, but Green Bay’s offensive line was a big part of that, as were the quality of the two defenses that he faced. Hundley stayed in Green Bay during the bye and got extra one-on-one work in with the coaching staff. Detroit isn’t anywhere near the Vikings or Saints when it comes to their pass rush or their ability to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the football. Let me make this very clear – Brett Hundley is a ‘bet-on’ QB this week, coming out of the bye! The Lions are 1-25 SU at Lambeau Field since 1992, a house of horrors for Detroit year after year after year. This is certainly not a venue that bodes well for the Lions as road chalk. Detroit comes in off yet another frustrating defeat; their third straight loss, gaining more than 480 yards of offense against the Steelers without getting the ball into the end zone even once. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered one pointspread, and they’ve yet to cover ANY pointspreads this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Packers are 9-2 SU after the bye under Mike McCarthy. Both SU losses came on the road against teams that were undefeated at the time. Each of their last seven wins out of the bye week have been relatively comfortable, by a TD or more – they’re coming back rested and focused, consistently. Green Bay hasn’t quit on their coach or their season; a team that is still very much alive in the playoff race despite Aaron Rodgers injuries and their current two game skid. Expect a strong showing on Monday Night in a game where the betting markets appear to be reading the wrong tea leaves. Extraordinary value here! Big Ticket GOY: Take the Packers. |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#470) The Chiefs defense is completely broken, but the betting markets haven’t realized it yet. Their season long offensive stats are lying, and the betting markets haven’t noticed that either. They’re on a short week off a very satisfying Monday Night win over a divisional rival at home. And they’re facing an undervalued foe. Put it all together and it’s not hard to make a strong case for fading the overrated Chiefs. Two weeks ago, we saw a terrible Raiders offense that hasn’t worked against anybody since Week 2 pick apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. Then last week, we saw a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. This is not a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. The season long stats clearly show the Chiefs with the most explosive offense in the NFL – like the Falcons had last year; #1 in yards per play. Those numbers are lying when it comes to projecting forward. RB Kareem Hunt was insane for the first five weeks, notching a 50+ yard rush in every single game! Now that opposing defenses are gameplanning for him, Hunt has gained 21, 87 and 46 yards in his last three contests, with only one run longer than 15 yards. But the impact of that bevy of Hunt early season big plays is still having a HUGE impact on the stat sheet. Both the pointspread and the sharp money follows that stat sheet pretty closely, giving savvy bettors value AGAINST KC, because their current offense is currently more like a middle of the pack unit: 5.6 yards per play over the past three weeks. I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back. I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is healthy now, and they’ve dominated the last two games. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last five ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – only 2 INT’s during that span. And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension. Should Elliott get reinstated by the courts – which is quite possible as I write this up on Thursday – you’ll be getting the best of the number if you bet it early – NOW! Take the Cowboys |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars -5.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#458) Yes, the Bengals ‘saved’ their season thanks to a Carlos Dunlap pick six in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week. And, yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the smallest home field edge for any team in the NFL in the modern era. But those two bits of information are, quite literally, the only reasonable cases to be made for the road underdog. And, as you’ll see, there are ample reasons to think that the Jags are primed to beat Cinci by a TD or more on Sunday. There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -10 for the season – their defense hasn’t recovered a fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays. The Jags defense is as dominant as any stop unit in football; a playoff caliber unit. They’ve been blowing up the line of scrimmage all year, sacking QB’s and forcing turnovers in bunches. That’s how the Jags have held four of their first eight opponents to nine points or less; winning those contests by a combined score of 130-23 - all blowouts. I expect the Bengals turnover issues to continue this week. Blake Bortles is not a QB most bettors are comfortable laying points with; understandably so given his repeated struggles in this particular ATS role. But this one spot – coming out of their bye week, playing at home where they’ve yet to win all year, looking for back-2-back wins for the first time all year – is a max intensity spot for the home team. From local reports, the Jags certainly have the feel of a motivated, focused, bet-on team in practice this week; something I’m not sensing from the road underdog with the lame duck head coach. Lay it with Bortles, but expect Leonard Fournette to be the difference maker on offense! Take the Jaguars. |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Philadelphia UNDER (#451-452) My clients and I cashed a ‘wrong side’ winner with the Broncos Over on Monday Night. I’m certainly not going to complain about the result, but that game made it very, very clear – Denver is not built to cash Over bets against anybody these days; an Under team just waiting for kickoff. Yes, the Broncos are making the move to Brock Osweiler at QB this week, the same QB they gave up on and wouldn’t pay two years ago. It’s not likely to matter against the Eagles solid stop unit. Osweiler is not a threat to open up the offense with a downfield passing game – expect a very conservative gameplan from the Broncos here. Denver’s offensive line is in shambles; an injury riddled mess. Their receiving corps is banged up and the running game is spotty at best. This offense hasn’t produced more than the 19 they scored last week (thanks to a last minute, garbage time TD) since Week 2, and they’re likely to struggle controlling the line of scrimmage. It’s surely worth noting that Philly has held two of their last three opponents at home to ten points or less. And it’s also worth noting, given Denver’s ‘run first’ gameplan, that Philly has created 31 tackles for loss on their 111 rushing attempts that they’ve faced over the last six games. We can expect a ‘run first’ gameplan for the Eagles as well, as Philly looks to take pressure off Carson Wentz while getting just acquired RB Jay Ajayi into the mix. But the Broncos have held foes to an NFL low 3.0 yards per carry on the season, winning the battle in the trenches on a weekly basis. They’ve yet to allow a single rushing TD all year, and rank #2 in the NFL at the fewest explosive running plays allowed, giving up only 14 rushes of 10+ yards all season. Denver’s ‘No Fly Zone’ defense is no joke either. This is not a game where we can expect the Eagles offense to march up and down the field either. Expect long drives, not quick strike TD’s and expect red zone field goals, not one TD after the next. Take the Under. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | BYU +14.5 v. Fresno State | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 82 h 40 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#401) Preseason power polls had BYU in the Top 40 nationally, while Fresno was routinely ranked outside the top 100 teams in college football. If this game had been played in September, BYU would have been the road favorite. Instead, they’re more than two touchdown underdogs. That, folks, is ‘value’ defined, especially since BYU’s problems have not been due to an injury barrage – the roster they had in August hasn’t been decimated. BYU is coming off their best game of the season; giving them a much needed jolt of energy. Fresno is coming off their worst game of the season, a real confidence sapper for a program with no recent history of winning. Fresno has been an ATS powerhouse, suffering their first ATS loss of the entire season last week, a team that’s built up a pretty big bandwagon here in Las Vegas. BYU has been on the other end of the spectrum, opening the season with an 0-8 ATS mark prior to last week, including a stretch of seven consecutive SU losses, six of which came by more than two touchdowns. Again, that’s the definition of ‘value’ – one team’s power rating has moved up almost every week this year, the other team’s rating has moved down almost every week. Not last week, though! And last week’s results are meaningful for both squads. BYU needed a win in the worst way, coming off a humiliating loss as road chalk at East Carolina. Defensive lineman Sione Takitaki: “Definitely getting this win feels really great and I know it does for the coaches and for us players to finally get a win and get going from there. We have Fresno next week so we’re not going to hang our hats on this one.” Head coach Kalani Sitake: “Having optimism isn’t good enough. Just saying things will get better isn’t good enough. You have to combine that with hard work and preparation. When you get those and you do it right, then you have confidence and that shows on the field. Although it wasn’t perfect (Saturday), there’s a lot of things we can still do. It’s a lot easier to make those corrections when you win.” Read between the lines there. It’s clear that the Cougars are in a much better place mentally than they were last week at this time. And while I do expect a better showing from Fresno this week than last, the Bulldogs have a problem in the trenches against BYU’s superior size and strength. The Cougars are truly battle tested, having faced the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, Mississippi State and Boise. Fresno’s signature win came against San Diego State, non-competitive in either ‘step-up’ non-conference game because they were unable to bang in the trenches with the big boys. Jeff Tedford’s team isn’t built for blowouts against superior physical teams. And it wasn’t a lack of focus last week that Tedford can harp on here. Fresno center Aaron Mitchell: “There wasn’t a lack of focus out there. There wasn’t a lack of focus at practice. We need to be more dialed-in and we need to play better, bottom line.” Even if they’re dialed in this week, extending the margin against the Cougars won’t be easy. Fresno would be thrilled to win this game by a touchdown. So would I! Take BYU. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech (#341) Honestly, the pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team. Their 7-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from the Hurricanes, keep looking. I guess their one point escape against Georgia Tech would qualify – the only winning team (4-3, barely) they’ve beaten since their opener against Toledo from the MAC but make no mistake about it – Mark Richt’s squad is anything BUT battle tested. Miami is also dealing with a handful of key mid-season injuries. Their running game hasn’t worked since Mark Walton got hurt, outrushed 440-198 over the past two weeks against Syracuse and North Carolina. QB Malik Rosier hurt his shoulder last week and is ‘a little sore’ this week, according to Mark Richt. Starting cornerback Dee Delaney is a question mark here as well. But the bigger issue is in the trenches, where Miami has struggled to dominate all season long. Virginia Tech owned both sides of the line of scrimmage in last year’s 37-16 smackdown over the ‘Canes in Blacksburg, winning the rushing battle 251-42. And there’s ample reason to think the Hokies are capable of enjoying that kind of dominance on the ground against that suspect Miami front seven on defense this year as well. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Virginia Tech as home chalk against North Carolina two weeks ago; a 59-7 beatdown. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: ‘Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Over the last three weeks, Virginia Tech has had a bye, and cruised to 59-7 and 24-3 victories. That defense that Bud Foster was touting as ‘not anywhere close’ to their potential just gave up a grand total of ten points in 120 minutes of football, with neither foe reaching 250 yards against them while they forced five turnovers in the process. This is most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ stop unit and QB Josh Jackson continues to impress running Justin Fuente’s offense, even in hostile road environments. The Hokies are relatively fresh, rested and ready for their challenge; battle tested after facing West Virginia away from home as well as truly elite Clemson. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in each of their last four games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their seventh consecutive game since their last break, and I expect it to show. Dramatically! Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#381) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in both previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 14 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-3. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” TCU QB Kenny Hill is remarkably inconsistent, coming off a truly miserable showing at Iowa State. Hill has put up some big numbers against lesser defenses, but his three worst showings of the season have come against the three best defenses that he’s faced in what’s been a very easy schedule when it comes to opposing defenses. Texas has already held Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor to their lowest scoring output in any game this season. Yes, that’s four of the five Big 12 opponents that they’ve faced. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. I’m not expecting a big game from Kenny Hill here. Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, although he could split snaps with Shane Buechele, who was excellent last week against Baylor. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” After playing in a litany of ‘right team at the right time’ type ballgames to get off to their 7-1 start, the Horned Frogs are primed to fall back to earth on Saturday. Take Texas |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Syracuse +5 v. Florida State | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#331) At this stage of the campaign, there’s nothing to salvage for Florida State. A team that came into the campaign with national championship dreams is now 2-5, off back-2-back losses as favorites against Louisville and Boston College. And head coach Jimbo Fisher isn’t pushing any of the right buttons to get his team to respond. Here’s Fisher’s quote prior to last week’s game at Boston College, following the loss to Louisville: “We're coaching a season. We have to teach the players how to do it. They've done it before. We'll continue to do it the rest of the year. I have total confidence in our coaches and what they can do, and the situations we put them in. We've got to learn to coach three to five plays better, and get them to understand how to play better." Florida State then proceeded to lose 35-3 as favorites to BC. For the sixth time in seven games, their defense forced one turnover or less. For the seventh time in seven games, the offense failed to reach 30 points. Fisher has never been in this spot before, coaching a losing FSU team down the stretch of a dismal campaign. I’m not expecting it to go well. And the Seminoles basic and biggest offensive weaknesses – a frosh QB who doesn’t look good under pressure playing behind an offensive line that has only one senior in the two-deep – isn’t likely to get fixed anytime soon. Florida State has yet to cover the pointspread in a single game this season, but the wiseguys continue to factor their overall talent level into the equation – the markets haven’t appropriately crashed on this team because their personnel grades out so well on paper. Syracuse is at the other end of the spectrum in that regard. Based on pure talent differential, this pointspread is too short. But with FSU playing like a ‘dead’ team and Syracuse showing all kinds of mettle in hostile road environments, basing this pointspread on pure talent differential is not something I’m willing to do. The Orange are the antithesis of Florida State from a value standpoint – their last ATS loss came back in the first week of September, with five spread covers and a push in their last six contests. We’ve seen them go on the road and battle for a full sixty minutes against the likes of LSU and NC State. We saw them beat mighty Clemson in straight up fashion and hang tough at Miami despite committing four turnovers. Fresh, rested and ready off their bye week, the Orange are live to win this one in SU fashion. Take the points, but be sure to take at least a taste of Syracuse on the moneyline. Take Syracuse. |
|||||||
10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 42 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Kansas City OVER (#273-274) The Broncos offense hasn’t worked in recent weeks. They’ve been shut down three times in their last four ballgames, unable to move the football against the Bills, Giants or Chargers defense; held to a combined 26 points in those ballgames. But make no mistake about it – those three defenses are ‘head and shoulders’ ahead of KC these days. The Chiefs rank #30 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They’ve been bad against the run (#28 defense on Football Outsiders ranking) and the pass (#19), the #25 ranked defense overall. Without a healthy Eric Berry, this is nowhere near an elite stop unit. Two weeks ago, Le’Veon Bell ran through this D like swiss cheese, gaining 179 yards on the ground. Last week, that same stop unit gave up 417 passing yards to Derek Carr, without generating a single sack or interception. This is NOT a ‘bet-on’ defense! Meanwhile, Denver is primed for a bounceback offensive showing after last week’s embarrassing shutout loss in LA. Head coach Vance Joseph: “When you watch the tape, the plays are there to make. It's execution. It's individual play from time to time. I'm not down on the playcalling, by no means. There are plays to be made on tape. What we're doing offensively, I feel good about." Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas: “I think we have good plans, we have to protect Trevor [Siemian] better and make more plays, me included. We have chances and we have to make those plays. I'm going to do everything I can to help us figure it out and get it right. The plays are there, I feel that way." Denver’s offense should get a big boost if, as expected, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to suit up tonight following last week’s absence. Denver had the #1 pass defense in the NFL in 2015 and 2016. This year, without coordinator Wade Phillips, that pass defense has declined to a #17 rating from Football Outsiders. KC is expected to get a pair of starting offensive linemen back on the field this week, and they’ve got, legitimately, pro bowl caliber talent at QB, RB, WR and TE. KC hung 30 and 33 on Denver in their two meetings last year, part of a series history that hasn’t seen an Under cash between these two squads since 2014. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#269) To call the Redskins an injury riddled mess right now would not be an overstatement. How bad is the injury situation in Washington on a short week off their home loss to Philly on Monday Night Football? Bad enough that Jay Gruden CANCELLED PRACTICE on Wednesday, opting for a walk-through instead. There aren’t many NFL coaches willing to cancel a Wednesday practice for any reason, but with 17 contributors unable to suit up, it was the only decision that Gruden could make. The Redskins biggest injury issues are on the offensive line. The likes of Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Spencer Long, Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe were unable to suit up for practice on Thursday either. Gruden’s quote doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor: ““It has its challenges, that’s for sure. You walk out of the tunnel with Long, Nsekhe, Scherff, Williams and Moses and those guys aren’t practicing, it’s a little bit different when you go in the huddle. Heading into the game against the Redskins, Washington’s options on the offensive line are very limited. Their only healthy tackles for Thursday’s practice session were TJ Clemmings, a guy they picked up off the waiver wire after preseason, and Andreas Knappe, who was signed to the practice squad just last week. They also have undrafted rookie Tyler Catalina and Tony Bergstrom, signed on Wednesday after getting released by the Ravens on the roster, a truly uninspiring quartet. The Redskins defense is just as injury riddled as their offense. Five defensive backs are hurt, including both starting cornerbacks. Standout rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, as did defensive leader LB Mason Foster. The Redskins just allowed 34 points in the final three quarters against Philly on Monday Night and there’s no reason to think it’ll be any easier for that stop unit this week, because the elite Cowboys offensive line is getting healthier! The Cowboys offensive line had their best game of the season coming out of their bye at San Francisco last week, buoyed by pro bowler Tyron Smith, as healthy as he’s been all season. No surprise, then, that Zeke Elliott enjoyed a huge afternoon, while Dak Prescott didn’t take a sack. If the weather is rainy, as expected, the Cowboys dominance in the trenches should only grow. And, of course, the Cowboys are primed to exploit the Redskins weaknesses up front with DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving combining for 12.5 sacks already. Let’s not forget the fact that the Cowboys are true road warriors: 8-2 SU in their last ten meaningful road games. Dallas is the better of these two teams right now, and I expect them to show it! Take the Cowboys |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#254) Since their 0-2 SU and ATS start to the campaign, the Saints have come on like a freight train, notching four consecutive wins and covers. Last week’s win at Green Bay was particularly impressive, because they got the two score victory despite an awful, turnover plagued start on the road on grass in rainy conditions – not ideal Saints weather. The key to their resurgence has been a defense making plays all over the field; the antithesis of what we’ve seen from the Saints defensively in any recent season. A Saints secondary that has flat out lacked talent in recent seasons has been buoyed by first round draft choice CB Marshon Lattimore, who is playing lockdown man coverage on a weekly basis. Safety Kenny Vaccaro, another former first rounder, has been nothing short of stellar since returning to health. The pass rush has been there too, led by Cameron Jordan and Alex Okafor. And the results clearly show the ‘night and day’ improvement. Over the past five weeks, the Saints have held opposing QB’s to a 53.6 QB rating, lowest in the NFL. They rank among the top four defenses in yards allowed, points allowed and forced turnover during that span. New Orleans still has full season stats that reflect their ugly first two games, but those games are a long, long way in the rear view mirror now. That’s bad news for a Bears offense that gained all of five first downs last week, managing just a single field goal for their 60 minutes of playing time. Mitch Trubisky has completed a grand total of 24 passes for 348 yards in his first three games as an NFL starter, but the Bears have been in every game because they haven’t been facing a litany of explosive offenses, to put it mildly. That changes this week in New Orleans, where the Saints have averaged scoring 36 points per game; not an offense that Chicago can expect to shut down. If the Bears are going to hang around in this contest, they’re going to have to put up points in bunches. And that’s just not something Chicago is capable of doing these days. Note the two games – both road contests, like this one – where the Bears fell behind early and were forced to rely on a passing game that lacks downfield receivers. They lost by 3 TD’s each time, at Tampa and at Green Bay; completely unable to rally back from a deficit. That doesn’t change this week in a blowout spot for the home team. Take the Saints. |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#257) This is a HUGE game for both squads. Tampa is 2-4, losers of three straight and on the verge of a complete collapse. Carolina is sitting at 4-3, but they’re coming off ugly back-2-back losses; sitting on the brink themselves. But only one of these two teams is primed to step up with a winning effort this week – the road underdog. Tampa’s problems aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. There’s clear dissention in the locker room, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Plain and simple – this injury riddled unit isn’t buying what defensive coordinator Mike Smith is selling, as clearly evidenced by these quotes: Offseason free agent acquisition TJ Ward, unhappy with the defensive rotations following their loss to Buffalo last week: “I did not come here to rotate. I did not come here to be a part-time player. I came here to make this defense better." Pro bowl defensive linemen Gerald McCoy, talking about the scheme: “I just play what they call. I don't have a say so in what we run, I just kind of go with it. I'm a team guy, so I do what they ask me to do. Do I feel like I could've been more effective in a different way? Yes. But I'm a team guy. It's not about Gerald. Whatever coach calls is what I'm going to run.” Smith’s issues calling plays for the defense are likely to continue to be a problem this week. For the season, the Bucs have only four interceptions, while allowing a whopping 295 yards per game through the air. They rank dead last in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage. And they’re dealing with cluster injuries at cornerback. One starter, Robert McClain, is in concussion protocol, unlikely to suit up. The other starter, Brett Grimes, missed last week with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. McClain has played 215 snaps over the last four games. The only two experienced backups on the roster have combined for five snaps during that same span. The season ending injury to DE Noah Spence isn’t likely to help their struggling pass rush. No pass rush and an injury riddled secondary is a very hard thing for any NFL team to overcome, let alone a team that is clearly beset with chemistry issues between the coaching staff and the players. In short, the Bucs are a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward, especially with QB Jameis Winston unable to practice all week with a bum shoulder. I do not expect this defense to get any better in the short term, a stop unit ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in key metrics like yards per play allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. Don’t be fooled by Cam Newton’s struggles interacting with the media. That does not make Cam Newton a ‘bet-against’ QB by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still at 64% completions for the season – best of his career – while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt – second only to his Super Bowl season over the last five years. The problem has been turnovers, more than any other factor; a team that allowed a pair of 75+ yard defensive scores last week, now sitting at -9 for the season – only the Browns are worse. Facing a Bucs defense that doesn’t force turnovers is exactly what Cam Newton and this offense need. And, no, this locker room isn’t turning on itself like the one in Tampa seems to be, despite their level of frustration. WR Kelvin Benjamin: “I think everybody is frustrated. The whole offense was frustrated because the defense was giving us 3-and-outs and we didn’t put points up.” Offensive coordinator Mike Shula, trying to explain why they’ve struggled over the last two weeks after putting up 60 points in SU road wins at Detroit and New England in weeks 4 & 5. “We’re not as far off as we think. It feels like we are, and we all feel terrible.” The Panthers should have both LB Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back in the lineup this week, two huge adds for a stop unit that gave up a grand total of five first downs and one field goal last Sunday. They’ve got a comparable offense, the MUCH better defense, the better locker room situation and the better chance at turning things around and salvaging their season. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Texas Tech +20 v. Oklahoma | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Texas Tech (#201) Oklahoma’s last pointspread cover came back in September, against Tulane. The only two games that the Sooners have won by more than two scores this year came against UTEP and Tulane, teams that couldn’t compete physically with Lincoln Riley’s squad in the trenches. Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in big 12 conference play, in large part because their defense can’t stop anybody. Three of the Sooners four Big 12 foes have hung 35+ against them; a defense picking up right where they left off last year – their worst defense of the decade. Texas Tech hung 59 points on Oklahoma last year, the third hotly contested, competitive game between these two schools in the last four seasons. Texas Tech had 42 first downs and 854 yards of offense in that contest. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Red Raiders won’t be capable of trading touchdowns with the Sooners once again this year. Oklahoma couldn’t get stops against Baylor. Iowa State was held to seven points at home against Texas, but they hung 38 on the road in Norman. Kansas State’s backup QB led them to five TD’s against the Sooners last week. Facing a Red Raiders offense that has put up 127 points in their three previous road games, we can expect the Sooners stop unit to struggle once again on Saturday. Texas Tech hasn’t lost a game by 20 points all year. They traded points with Oklahoma State, losing by only seven against the Cowboys potent offense. They traded points with West Virginia, hanging 35 on the Mountaineers. They traded points with Arizona State, winning 52-45, a victory that looks even better now considering the Sun Devils stellar defensive showings over the last two weeks. With a 9-3 ATS mark in Kliff Kingsbury’s last dozen tries as a road underdog, the Red Raiders sure look like ‘live’ dogs again this week! Take Texas Tech. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | TCU -6.5 v. Iowa State | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
Take TCU (#193) When Gary Patterson has a good team – like he does this year – the Horned Frogs tend to be a strong ‘bet-on’ team when they hit the highway. TCU has dominated all three road games so far this season, winning 28-7 at Arkansas, 44-31 at Oklahoma State and 26-6 at Kansas State, all easy wins and covers. There’s been a pretty big class difference between these two teams in recent seasons. Last year, the Horned Frogs were -24.5 in a 41-20 win over the Cyclones. The year before that, it was -21 and a 45-21 final score. In 2014, it was TCU -35, and a 55-3 win for the favorite. The betting markets are pricing in a substantial improvement for Iowa State here in 2017. I’m not convinced that it’s warranted. Iowa State has gone 3-9, 2-10, 3-9 and 3-9 SU since 2012. This year, they’re 5-2, including an outright upset as 31 point underdogs at Oklahoma. Of course, the toughest part of their schedule is still to come, and Iowa State lost by double digits while scoring only seven points in their last try as a home dog against Texas. And former walk-on Kyle Kempt is no elite starter at QB, taking a real step up in class against this defense! TCU ranks #1 in the nation in total defense, best in the Big 12. Senior QB Kenny Hill has shown his maturity repeatedly in hostile environments, with a 15-3 TD – INT ratio and a 70% completion rate. And the Horned Frogs are balanced, running for 170+ yards six times in seven games. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread; a game that the Horned Frogs are primed to win by a TD or more. Take TCU. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – NC State UNDER (#179-180) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Notre Dame last week in their blowout win over USC. The premise was simple. USC was an injury riddled mess on the defensive line. Notre Dame’s biggest strength is their offensive line. No surprise, then, that Notre Dame rushed for more than 300 yards for the third consecutive week in a 49-14 win over the Trojans. That was then; this is now. Instead of an injury depleted Trojans defensive front, this time around, Notre Dame must face NC State’s stout unit. After facing Miami-Ohio and North Carolina the previous two weeks, this is a HUGE step up in class for the Irish offensive line. In their only two previous games against stout defensive fronts – Michigan State and Georgia – the Irish did NOT dominate the line of scrimmage and did NOT run the football effectively throughout. QB Brandon Wimbush has been battling injuries all year, with only 77 completions and a 51.3 completion percentage. I do not trust Wimbush to move the Irish offense in a game where their running game doesn’t control the flow. And Notre Dame’s running game isn’t likely to control the flow here against NC State’s stout defensive front. The Wolfpack have held every opponent to 116 rushing yards or less, and every opponent to 25 points or less, even Louisville. They currently rank #6 in the country against the run. How? Simple! Their 4-2-5 defense has a front six that consists entirely of senior starters, a veteran unit that is built to stop powerful OL’s. But Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley rather pedestrian and his receiving corps lacks playmakers. Expect BOTH teams to struggle to control the line of scrimmage on offense, leading to a relatively low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Virginia +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia (#137) Virginia played their worst game of the season last Saturday, blown out 41-10 at home as TD favorites against Boston College. Pitt played their best game of the season last Saturday, taking advantage of a tired, depleted Duke team that hasn’t had a bye week yet, winning outright on the road as nine point underdogs. I’m expecting both teams to revert back to the mean this week. The quotes out of the Virginia locker room this week were fully focused on the task at hand, not a team that is primed to suffer a hangover following their first loss since early September. The back half of their schedule is brutal: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech, teams that are a combined 21-6. The Cavs are one win shy of bowl eligibility and they expect to get it here. Senior LB Micah Kiser: “We’ve been playing well, we had one bad game and that doesn’t define the season. There’s no question we can get back…... We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high. But we want to play with confidence. You win some, you lose some. We lost this one. We got smacked in the mouth. There’s no way around it. (But) there’s no talk about the past. There’s no problem.” Cavs junior RB Jordan Ellis: “This game will really humble you. I thought we were better because we were 5-1. This brings us back down a little bit. This gives us a chance to correct the mistakes we have and go into next week with a chip on our shoulders because we kind of got embarrassed at home.” It’s not like the Cavs can’t win on the highway. We saw them go to Boise and dominate the Broncos on the blue turf; a 42-23 smackdown as 14 point underdogs and won SU by six on the highway in their only other try, at North Carolina. Senior QB Kurt Benkart has a 15-4 TD – INT ratio. Pitt’s star senior cornerback and team captain, Avonte Maddox is hurt, and his likely replacement, Phillipie Motley isn’t 100% after dealing with his own injury issues, setting up Benkart for a big day. Let’s not forget how badly this defense got torched at home when they faced Oklahoma State’s strong passing game. It wasn’t much better against NC State, another double digit home loss. And it’s certainly not like Pitt is primed to trade points with opponents like they did last year. Senior starter Max Browne is out for the year, and backup Ben Dinucci has been underwhelming to say the least, just 8-18 at Duke last Saturday. Pat Narduzzi is notably short on offensive playmakers this year, and Pitt is not the better of these two teams. Big Ticket: Take Virginia |
|||||||
10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Northern Illinois (#108) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet, because the concept here is very simple. Eastern Michigan has hung tough with everybody this year, with each of their last six games decided by a touchdown or less. But we cannot expect the Eagles ‘A’ game tonight. They’ve lost each of those last five close games, including a pair of them in overtime. Last week’s OT loss to arch rival Western Michigan was the worst of the bunch; the type of defeat that won’t make it easy for Eastern Michigan to get going tonight. Travelling, on short rest, coming off that OT loss, this is one spot where the Eagles are primed for a sluggish showing. That’s not the case for Northern Illinois! Unlike Eastern Michigan, the Huskies are physically fresh, coming off an easy 48-17 blowout at Bowling Green. The Huskies have a strong homefield for the MAC, winning each of their last two home games by 3 TD’s or more. With frosh QB Marcus Childers settling into the starters role -- 7 TD’s to 1 INT over the last three weeks – and ‘stretch the field’ receiver Chad Beebe back on the field (6 catches for 124 yards last week), we can expect the Huskies to win by margin against the exhausted, demoralized Eagles. Take Northern Illinois. |
|||||||
10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 49 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Philadelphia OVER (#477-478) The Eagles offense is a completely different animal compared to last year. When Carson Wentz was a rookie QB, he didn’t show much comfort level throwing downfield to his receiving corps. That’s most assuredly not the case in 2017. The Eagles have scored at least 26 points in five of their first six games. Wentz has improved from a 6.2 yards per pass attempt average last year to a 7.7 yards/attempt average this year, a dramatic improvement. It’s not just Wentz. Unlike last year, the Eagles have had standout left tackle Lane Johnson healthy for most of the season, and he’s expected to play again tonight. Free agent addition RB LaGarrette Blount ranks behind only Kareem Hunt on a yards per carry basis for backs with 65+ carries this season. WR Nelson Agholor has surpassed the TD total from his first two seasons COMBINED through the Eagles first five games, and Agholor’s yards per catch has improved from 10.1 last year to 16.1 this season, stretching opposing defenses from the slot. Throw TE Zack Ertz, having a pro bowl caliber season, and WR’s Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith into the mix and this offense is flat out dynamic, loaded with playmakers at multiple positions. The betting markets haven’t necessarily accepted this just yet. Meanwhile, the Redskins have cluster injury problems in their secondary. Impact rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, devastating their pass rush. CB Josh Norman: “(Jonathan Allen is) a big loss. I’m not gonna be up here and fake it and say it’s not. It’s a big loss for us because he’s one of our driving forces in the middle. He creates havoc in the middle when he’s on the field.” But Norman won’t have to worry about covering the Eagles receivers without a pass rush – he’s been downgraded to OUT this evening, while his cornerback counterpart on the other side, Bashaud Breeland, is questionable at best. Safeties Stefan McClure, Deshazor Everett and Su’a Crvens are already on IR. This defense is primed to get picked apart all night. But the Redskins offense is no joke either! RB Rob Kelley is expected back on the field tonight, an upgrade for their running game. Chris Thompson has been a difference maker catching passes out of the backfield, while Vernon Davis is still tough to guard over the middle and the likes of Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder give Kirk Cousins every bit as much offensive weaponry to rely on as Carson Wentz has. The Eagles, too, have a bevy of banged up defensive players. Washington, too, has been putting up points in bunches on a consistent basis, hanging 26+ three times in the last four weeks. The ‘Skins have been a very consistent Over team throughout the Jay Gruden era, 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 regular season ballgames. This series has consistently gone Over the total as well, with five Over cashes in the last seven meetings, with the losing team reaching 20 in all six of those contests. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 0-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with LA last week in their double digit win at Jacksonville. While the pointspread this week isn’t as user friendly – I can’t go back to the well with LA for another Big Ticket Report -- I have absolutely no hesitation supporting the Rams with a standard sized wager in London against the Cardinals. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game. That defense played their best two games of the season over the past two weeks; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. “The Rams turned the ball over five times against Seattle two weeks ago, their first ‘turnover plague’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad, and they fixed it last week, even facing the top notch Jags stop unit. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 185 pass attempts for the season, while only taking nine sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football.” The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Cardinals offense; more than a half yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco, at Dallas and at Jacksonville. And LA took this trip last year, a fact that matters considering the trip to London is a brand new thing for the Cardinals. It’s worth noting that Arizona had to fly from the West Coast while the Rams flew out straight from Jacksonville. Arizona has played decently at home this year. Away from home, they’ve been a complete disaster, losing 35-23 at Detroit, barely escaping with a three point OT win as TD favorites at Indy, and blasted 34-7 at Philly. This isn’t a new issue. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, ‘Zona is a woeful 2-6 ATS as an underdog away from home. Both covers came in late December against teams playing for nothing. And there’s no comparison between the Rams solid stop unit and the injury riddled Bucs unit that Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson shredded last week. Chalk worth laying! Take the Rams. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Ravens v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the Minnesota Vikings (#458) Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. After a win against the struggling Raiders, it was more of the same for the Baltimore offense last week; held to ten points and less than 300 total yards in their OT loss at home to the Bears last week. Don’t be fooled for a moment about the final score of that game. The Ravens got a kick return TD and a punt return TD – otherwise the Bears would have blown them out. And I’m not anticipating two more special teams TD’s this week! The Ravens offense is clearly broken. From a yards per play standpoint, they rank #30 out of 32 NFL teams. Joe Flacco’s QB rating is 66.1 right now. His previous CAREER low was 80.3 as a rookie in 2008. They aren’t likely to have TE Maxx Williams (ankle) or deep threat WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) available, both downgraded to doubtful. TE Ben Watson has a bum knee, WR Mike Wallace has a bad back and WR Jeremy Maclin hurt his shoulder. Facing a staunch Vikings defense – a stop unit that has held all four home opponents under 20 points – we cannot expect the Ravens to suddenly come alive with TD’s in bunches. Baltimore’s defense is quickly becoming every bit as injury riddled and problematic as their offense. Run stuffing DL Brandon Williams has a foot injury, and the Bears ran for 231 yards against them last week, the third time in four games that Baltimore has given up 165+ on the ground. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Jaylen Hill and safety Ladarius Webb are all questionable or doubtful, none of them healthy. Linebacker Tim Williams won’t play. This is truly a nightmarish injury situation, leaving Baltimore as a clear ‘bet-against’ team; far weaker than their 3-3 record would indicate. Minnesota is not! They’ve enjoyed a STRONG homefield edge in their new digs, winning three of their first four home games by double digit margins. In fact, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their first twelve regular season games at US Bank Stadium; an emerging trend worth riding especially when facing a clear ‘bet-against’ foe. Take the Vikings. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#402) Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status. When these two teams met at the end of the season last year, Notre Dame was an injury riddled mess at the tail end of a dismal 4-8 campaign. USC rolled to an 18 point victory as 17.5 point favorites. That was then, this is now. In 2017, it’s USC dealing with a significant injury bugaboo right now – their defensive line is in absolute shambles. Brandon Pili, a true frosh from Alaska, is the only healthy, active regular at defensive tackle. Starter Josh Fatu is in concussion protocol. Five star recruit Kenny Bigelow quit the team. Frosh Marlon Tuipulotu just underwent season ending surgery. Junior Malik Dorton is still dealing with a knee injury he suffered last month. And let’s not forget that starting LB Porter Gustin is out with a broken toe and torn bicep, while starting defensive end Rasheem Green isn’t practicing with an ankle sprain. A cluster injury problem like that would be bad against any foe. Against Notre Dame in South Bend, it’s a freakin’ disaster! The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays. Notre Dame ranks #5 in the nation in rushing yards and #2 in the nation in yards per carry. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.8 ypc. Dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush is expected back in the lineup this week, although backup Ian Book played well in his staid in their last game at North Carolina. All five Notre Dame wins this year have come by 20 points or more. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks better now, with the Bulldogs a Top 5 squad that won all of THEIR other games by 20 points or more. They’ll be facing a Trojans squad in pointspread freefall, overvalued from Day 1 this year to the tune of a 1-6 ATS mark. Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers in each of their last five games while their low risk offense has only turned the ball over seven times all season. USC’s offense has committed at least two turnovers in every game, unable to take care of the football. That’s a HUGE problem in a game where the Irish are primed to push USC around at the line of scrimmage and put themselves back in the college football playoff picture. VERY cheap price to lay given the circumstances! Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#360) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against North Carolina last week. Let me start this write-up with an extended excerpt from what I wrote last week, all of which is still pertinent to for their trip to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on Saturday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. “Nine guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a pair of ineffective QB’s throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top five guys to injury, playing behind a weak offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 48 points in their last four ballgames combined. “North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion…” While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Hokies are in a great spot. They’re fresh, rested and ready off a bye week, looking to open up the offense for young QB Josh Jackson (13 TD passes, 66% completions and 55 rushing attempts already). This defense dominated the Tar Heels last year in a 34-3 win at Chapel Hill, and that was when North Carolina’s offense was elite. Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Hokies head coach Justin Fuente has been an excellent bully; 5-1 ATS as home chalk against FBS foes here in Blacksburg. This one gets ugly for the road dog! Take Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#392) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Texas Longhorns last week. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote last week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. Last week, they covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-2. That’s Straight Up! They’re 13-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming away from home against teams with Top 5 talent: Oklahoma and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now. He threw for 278 yards and ran for 110 vs. the Sooners last week. Herman: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” The Texas defense hasn’t allowed anybody to score more than 27 against them in regulation since their opener against Maryland. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. This is, by far, the best defense Oklahoma State has seen since TCU, and we certainly remember how that Cowboys offense got shut down at home by the Horned Frogs….. Take Texas |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri OVER 63 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Missouri – Idaho Over (#373-374) When Barry Odom arrived in Columbia, he promised to make the Missouri offense as fast paced as any offense in college football, the ultimate uptempo squad. As with many new, uptempo offenses, the Tigers struggled when stepping up in class, against the better defenses of the SEC. But when Missouri got to face a lesser foe with a slower defense, it got ugly for that opponent. Missouri hung 61 on eastern Michigan, 79 on Delaware State and 45 on Middle Tennessee. All three of those games flew Over the total by more than two touchdowns – even the one where their defense pitched a rare shutout! Fast forward to 2017. Missouri’s offense looked great in their opener against Missouri State; a game where the Tigers scored 72 points and generated more than 800 yards of total offense. But it was culture shock for Drew Lock and the Tigers when they stepped up in class, shut down completely by the likes of South Carolina and Purdue in September. Both of those games stayed Under the total by 4 TD’s or more. The betting markets did what betting markets do – they adjusted Missouri down, way down, from a totals perspective after their offense managed only 14 points for a third straight week, whipped by Auburn. In each of their last two games, Missouri was totaled in the 50’s. Kentucky has a better defense this year than in any recent season. Georgia’s defense is as good as any in the country this side of Alabama and Clemson. Yet Missouri moved the football effectively against both of those squads, scoring 34 and 28 points. No surprise, then, that both games FLEW Over the total by more than two touchdowns. Drew Lock has figured it out at the QB position and Missouri’s offense is really starting to click for the first time in the Barry Odom era. Idaho’s defense presents a major step down in class, compared to what they’ve been facing. And the Vandals own offense, led by senior QB Matt Linehan – a four year starter – is capable of putting TD’s on the board against a dismal Tigers stop unit that has allowed every single opponent they’ve faced this season to get into the 30’s. Expect a shootout! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#304) Houston laid an egg at Tulsa last Saturday, losing 45-17 as two TD favorites. Memphis had a +4 turnover margin, and needed every one of those turnovers to win in their three point victory, failing to cover as 3.5 point chalk. But with Memphis sitting at 6-0 SU right now and the Cougars coming off an ass kicking, there’s no surprise that the markets have been moving in favor of the Tigers since the opener. That money is moving in the wrong direction if you take these quotes in mind, taken from the local papers in Houston and Memphis this week. Every quote – literally, every one I found – points towards the Cougars as short home chalk. Houston senior defensive end Nick Thurman: “As soon as we got back home (late Saturday night) we had to bury it and move on. Our whole focus is on Memphis. There's nothing we can do about that. There's now a sense of urgency around here.” Houston junior cornerback Isaiah Johnson: “There's been a lot of talk about how we used to do it in the past. But that's not important right now. It's about the 2017 Cougars. Not the 2015 team. Not the 2016 team. It's about this year. What do we want to leave as our legacy? We still have that chip on our shoulder that we lost a game we weren't suppose to lose. That loss only made us stronger. It also brought us together." Houston senior safety Terrell Williams: "Our season's far from over.” Memphis head coach Jay Norvell knows the dangers of this spot, one week after the Tigers woke up to find themselves in the Top 25 for the first time since 2015. He certainly doesn’t like the scheduling spot off the intense win over Navy: “I'd like to say that when the schedule came out I didn't notice, but I noticed. I noticed how these two games backed up to each other. It's a short week and we know we have to adapt some things to how we prepare, but we've got to go get it." Two weeks ago, Memphis got torched for more than 300 passing yards against UConn. Last week, they were gashed on the ground, but turnovers saved them against Navy. Houston’s not a team that has been plagued with turnovers repeatedly this season, and they’re in revenge for a four point loss at Memphis last year. Look for the Cougs to get that revenge tonight! Take Houston. |
|||||||
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#276) To say this is a ‘circled’ game for the Tennessee Titans is something of an understatement. The Titans have lost 11 consecutive games to the Colts, with Indy and Houston dominating the division and Tennessee ranked nearer to Jacksonville in the AFC South, relegated to ‘bottom feeder’ status. All four losses to Indy over the past two seasons have been hotly contested games, decided by a TD or less. And the Titans are coming off poorly played back-2-back losses. First, they got Deshaun Watson’d in Houston, then they followed that up with a dismal offensive showing with Matt Cassel behind center at Miami last Sunday. In 50 dropbacks over six quarters on the highway over the past two weeks, Cassel netted only 132 passing yards (counting the eight sacks he took). Normal starting QB Marcus Mariota is expected back in the starting lineup tonight. So we’ve got a Titans team with an axe to grind against a divisional rival that has owned them in every reason season. And we’ve got a Titans team with a chip on their collective shoulders, looking to wipe away the stink of their subpar showings over the past two weeks. They’ve got the optimal setting to do that – at home, in front of a raucous Monday Night Football crowd. And there’s no question about which of these two squads has the superior team in 2017. Over the course of their last four games, the Titans have faced three elite defenses – the Jaguars, Seahawks and Texans, all ‘top quartile’ units. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against the suspect Colts stop unit, a defense that allowed 46 points in each of their first two road games; ugly losses to the Rams (by 37) and the Seahawks (by 28). It’s surely worth noting that Tennessee beat that same Seattle team rather comfortably here at Nissan Stadium. We all know that Andrew Luck is still hurt, but Jacoby Brissett has filled his big shoes admirably, guiding Indy to a 2-2 record in his four starts. But Brissett is likely to be running for his life tonight, thanks to cluster injuries on the Colts offensive line. With their top three guards all injured, the Colts are expected to start undrafted second year OL Jeremy Vujovich and undrafted rookie Kyle Kalis at the guard spots this evening. That’s bad news against this defensive front! It’s surely worth noting how well the Titans defense played last week despite Cassel’s ineptitude, holding the Dolphins to 12 first downs and 178 yards, giving up just 3.0 yards per play. No surprise here if Dick LeBeau’s stop unit is a very tough nut for the Indy offense to crack this evening, while the Colts defense does not compare favorably to any of the stop units that Tennessee has seen over the past month. Indy has allowed a full 6.0 yards per play this season; tied for 31st in the NFL. Find a -7 (be smart, lay a little extra juice to get the key number, there are plenty of -7’s at -115 or -120 out there as I type this), and expect the Titans exorcize their Colts demons. Take the Titans. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – Washington OVER (#263-264) Forget any stats that you’ve seen about the San Francisco 49ers defense, at least for this week. Spots don’t get much worse than this one for San Fran. Two weeks ago, San Fran led at Arizona in the closing minutes, but ended up losing in overtime. The defense was on the field for more than 80 snaps and 37 minutes. Last week, the 49ers travelled again, flying east to take on the Colts. Again, the game went into OT. Again, the 49ers defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes and 70 snaps. Now, this exhausted and banged up stop unit has to do it again – a third straight road game, heading back East once again, with an early start kickoff. San Fran gave up 41 on a Thursday Night against the Rams the last time they were tired out, and the Redskins offense is primed to explode coming out of their bye week behind an offensive line that’s as healthy as it’s been since Week 1. With playmaking WR Josh Doctson expected to suit up, a Redskins offense that’s in the top quartile of the NFL – averaging a full six yards per play – is capable of lighting up the scoreboard with big plays here. The season long stats for this San Fran offense stink – that’s why this total is as low as it is. In three of their first four games, the 49ers didn’t score an offensive touchdown. But in two games where the 49ers were able to run the football, they scored a combined 62 points, and Brian Hoyer was able to make some big plays downfield against defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. It’s worth noting that the Redskins won’t have shutdown CB Josh Norman in the lineup this week. And frankly, I’m not sold on the Redskins run defense, especially against a 49ers offense that is likely to play their fair share of uptempo, no huddle football. Expect some fireworks here! Take the Over. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Ravens | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#261) The numbers don’t lie. In their last 14 tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-11 ATS. All three of the covers came against the same team – the Cleveland Browns, the absolute worst team in football in recent seasons. Continuing a long term trend under John Harbaugh, the underdog in Ravens games has been profitable to bet blindly once again this year. Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. That’s the real Ravens; not a team with any business in this pointspread range right now. I know they blew out Oakland last week, in large part due to the Raiders own incompetence. Make no mistake about it -- that victory did not make me think that the Ravens have suddenly solved their myriad of problems; a team that has been outgained by 0.6 yards per play this season. The Bears aren’t a pretty team to watch and they’re certainly not a ‘sexy’ squad with a 1-4 record and a short week to prepare off a Monday Night loss. But the effort has been there for Chicago every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re getting key LB Danny Treviathan back in the lineup after his league mandated suspension. And the Bears season long offensive stats are flat out lying now that Mike Glennon has mercifully been benched for a playmaking Mitch Trubisky. Too many points! Take the Bears. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New Mexico (#215) The betting markets have no idea how to price Fresno State right now, offering savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in on Saturday Night! Fresno presents quite the conundrum for ‘power rating’ based bettors – the wiseguys. The Fresno program fell hard and fast once Derek Carr graduated and moved on to the Oakland Raiders. 11-2 in 2013 with Carr, the Bulldogs went 6-8 in 2014, 3-9 in 2015 and 1-11 last year. The talent level and depth were way down – waaaaaaay down – from where it had been just a few years earlier. Enter Jeff Tedford. The former Cal head coach has a ‘QB guru’ reputation, and the state of the program right now is significantly better than it was last year at this time. And, after ugly ‘step-up’ losses to Alabama and Washington, the Bulldogs responded with back-2-back double digit wins, beating Nevada and San Jose State by double digit margins. But before we get too carried away with the Bulldogs improvement, let’s not forget how far this program had fallen – all the way to the bottom of a ‘not that good’ Mountain West Conference. Nor should we forget who Fresno has beaten this season – the two worst teams in the Mountain West and FCS Incarnate Word. Clearly, the markets are struggling to price this squad correctly, as evidenced by the fact that Fresno is chalk on Saturday Night against a team they should be underdogs against! Fresno’s offense is ‘serviceable’, not explosive. QB Marcus McMaryion doesn’t have a big arm, and his top two receivers – KeeSean Johnson and Da’Mari Scott – average only about 11 yards per reception between them. The team has a grand total of one rushing attempt for longer than 19 yards all season. Fresno is certainly capable of beating the Mountain West bottom feeders this year, but New Mexico is a legitimate step-up for this squad, and the Lobos unique style is primed to give Fresno trouble. When Bob Davie arrived in Albuquerque, he installed a fairly unique option style offense. Now, six years into the system, the Lobos are running it extremely well. In their last game, facing an Air Force team that sees the option every day in practice, the Lobos rolled for 56 points while averaging better than 10 yards per SNAP. Why? Because Davie runs an option with speed on the perimeter—one missed assignment or one bad tackle and someone is off to the races. Lobos QB Lamar Jordan is a playmaker, averaging more than ten yards per pass attempt. SEVEN different backs have a carry of 25 yards or longer. WR’s Chris Davis and Jay Griffin along with TE Delane Hart-Johnson all have big play ability as well. This is a ‘quick strike TD’ team, the type of squad that can suck the life out of an opposing stadium in a hurry with a big play or two. And they’ve certainly shown the ability to win games away from home. New Mexico’s seniors have won in SU fashion on the highway at New Mexico State, UTSA, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise, Hawaii, Utah State and Tulsa. Fresno is not primed to slow down New Mexico’s option. These teams haven’t met since 2014. Tedford didn’t see options at Cal, or in more recent stints with the Tampa Bay Bucs and in the CFL. Defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer came over from the CFL, another guy who is not familiar with or adept at shutting down the option. Tedford cleaned house when he got here – there’s not a single coach on the staff who was here last year, leaving the Bulldogs defense unlikely to get many stops in this one. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take New Mexico. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Purdue v. Wisconsin OVER 50 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Purdue – Wisconsin OVER (#113-114) My clients and I cashed a winner supporting Wisconsin as road chalk against Nebraska last week. This week, however, my attention has turned towards the total; a number that is a good notch or two too low. So, let me start this write-up with an excerpt from last week’s write-up, explaining why the Badgers offense remains an underrated unit at this stage of the campaign, despite another 38 point outburst last week. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Then the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more; a team that is lighting up the scoreboard. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 64% of his throws while averaging just shy of 9.5 yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.9 yards per carry with nine TD’s.” Wisconsin has scored 31+ in every ballgame this year, while averaging more than 40 points per game, and I expect a similar offensive output this week. Paul Chryst got this job because of his offensive acumen – when he was the offensive coordinator here, the Badgers routinely averaged 40 points per game for the full season. The Badgers hung 49 on Purdue last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they push around the Boilermakers in the trenches once again this season, leading to some quick strike, big play scores as the defense starts to wear down later in the contest. But there’s ample reason to think that Purdue will be able to put their fair share of points on the scoreboard too. Jeff Brohm got this job because of HIS offensive acumen as an assistant at Louisville and head coach at Western Kentucky. And the Boilermakers have shown immediate and dramatic offensive improvement in Brohm’s first year on the job, hanging 28+ four times in five games, despite David Blough and Elijah Sindelar splitting snaps at QB. Ten different receivers have caught a pass of 20 yards or longer this year, with Brohm’s offense already giving opposing defenses trouble. Expect a handful of quick strike TD’s in this one! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas +9 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#182) There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel in their lone try as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-1. That’s Straight Up! They’re 12-0 ATS, the lone SU loss coming in that aforementioned game earlier this year on the road at USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time! Oklahoma, on the other hand, is NOT worth betting on every single time they’re chalk. Head coach Lincoln Riley lucked into this job after Bob Stoops surprisingly resigned over the summer. And, quite frankly, Riley has struggled – he’s no Tom Herman when it comes to motivating players or ‘X’s and O’s’. This defense just got shredded by the likes of Baylor and Iowa State (with a third string QB), allowing 79 combined points while forcing only one turnover. This is not a good sign moving forward for a ‘D’ that frankly wasn’t very good last year. Oklahoma’s offense is explosive, but the Iowa State coaching staff just gave every other coaching staff in the Big 12 a blueprint on how to beat them. The Cyclones rushed only three while dropping eight back into coverage, frustrating Baker Mayfield repeatedly. Don’t be shocked if the Longhorns take a page from that playbook this week in a game that has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Take Texas. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Virginia -3.5 v. North Carolina | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#133) North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. 9 guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a redshirt frosh QB throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top four guys to injury, playing behind an ineffective offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 34 points in their last three ballgames. North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion… While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Cavaliers are in a great spot in Bronco Mendenhall’s second season on the job. They’re coming off impressive back-2-back wins, beating Boise on the blue turf in Boise, then knocking off the same Duke team that beat North Carolina by double digits. Senior QB Kurt Benkert has been brilliant since a bad game against Indiana back in Week 2, throwing for 900 yards and 9 TD’s in his last three ballgames. And the vastly improved Cavs defense has held four of their five foes this year to 23 points or less, more than capable of getting a late stop should we need one to preserve the victory. Two teams headed in opposite directions here! Take Virginia. |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#104) There’s a lot to like about the Carolina Panthers right now. A team that went 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) and went to the Super Bowl two years ago is showing signs that they are capable of putting another strong run together here in 2017. It starts with a stop unit in excellent in early season form, holding foes to 4.8 yards per play, the #4 defense in the NFL right now. The Panthers offense came out of the gate looking very sluggish. Cam Newton missed the entire offseason, recovering from surgery, and he looked rusty and out of sync for the first three weeks of the campaign. Those early season stats are significantly impacting this pointspread, even though they are effectively meaningless now. Cam Newton found his stride against New England two weeks ago, finishing with the seventh highest single game QB rating of his career. He did it again last week in Detroit, finishing with his fourth best QB rating of his career. When a former MVP level QB goes 48-62 for 771 yards and 6 TD’s in two games; we can reasonably assume that he’s a ‘bet-on’ guy moving forward. Panthers LB Thomas Davis: “We had a lot of people who were counting him out at the beginning of the season – really because we kind of limited some of the things he was capable of doing. But now you see him going out and running the ball again. His arm strength is back. And he’s putting the ball on the money.” Yes, the Eagles have won three straight since their loss to KC, but those three wins have come against the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals; three teams that all have significant offensive issues. It’s surely worth noting that those squads are a combined 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS in all games not against one another; both wins coming against fellow bottom feeders Indy and San Fran. And make no mistake about it – Philadelphia’s defense is not built to handle high octane passing attacks without their top cover corner Ronald Darby, who is out indefinitely. To make matters worse, their top interior defensive lineman, Fletcher Cox, is very questionable with a strained calf. The team went 1-9 SU without left tackle Lane Johnson in the lineup last year while going 6-0 with him healthy. Johnson will be out this week, dealing with a concussion. The Eagles defense has been ‘cramming’ for their test on Thursday, a short week with travel for a squad dealing with the injury bug. Safety Malcolm Jenkins: “Last year we played the Giants on Thursday night. That's a divisional opponent. You've got years of notes on them. But this is an opponent that is doing so much offensively that you're not necessarily familiar with what you've got to prepare for and cram for. It makes it tough. We definitely have our hands full over the next couple days.” Defensive end Chris Long: “With a tough team like Carolina and the multitude of looks they give you in the run game and the different ways they can beat you, it's a challenge." I don’t expect Philly to be up for that challenge….. Take the Panthers. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -100 | 105 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#474) The Houston Texans looked awful offensively in Week 1 with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. They looked every bit as bad in Week 2, travelling to Cincinnati with rookie QB Deshaun Watson promoted to make his first career start on the road on a short week (Thursday Night Game). The stats from those two games make up half the statistical database for the Texans this season, yet they are completely meaningless when we look forward, not backwards. In two games with normal prep time for their rookie QB, the Houston Texans have covered the spread by 10.5 points at New England and by 38.5 points against Tennessee last week. Both the Patriots and Titans are power rated as playoff teams, not weaklings. In my humble opinion, the betting markets are not valuing Houston correctly at this stage of the campaign; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Texans last week, as easy as it gets. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities: “What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. “I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, made an immediate impact in his first game of the season on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins last week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now.” But the markets continue to show love for Kansas City, currently power rated as the #1 team in the NFL just about everywhere. I understand the Chiefs have looked really good thusfar. But I also understand that the Chiefs aren’t going 16-0 this year; they’re coming off a huge last minute win (and an extremely fortuitous pointspread cover) on Monday Night against the Redskins; and they’re travelling on a short week to face a defense that completely shut them down last year, holding KC to four field goals. Wrong team favored here; and Houston offers legit Big Ticket value on a weekly basis right now...at least until this national TV game. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -1.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#472) If you didn’t watch the game last Thursday Night and simply looked at the final score, you might think that Green Bay’s early season issues have been fixed. But if you watched the game, you saw what I saw – the Bears completely melting down, handing the Packers cheap TD after cheap TD. When the carnage ended, Chicago had more first downs than Green Bay, more rushing yards AND more passing yards – with Mike Glennon at QB vs. Aaron Rodgers, yet the Packers had an easy 3 TD victory. Of course, the Bears -4 turnover margin was the key factor in the game…. And bettors just saw the Dallas Cowboys get whipped on their home field by the LA Rams. The Rams are getting plenty of respect here in Vegas, but that level of respect hasn’t seeped out into the broader betting community just yet. So, for many people, it looks like the Cowboys second bad loss in three weeks after they got hammered in Denver. All of this has resulted in a short pointspread here, with Cowboys backers asked to lay less than a field goal, at home, in a ‘playoff revenge’ situation. There’s ample reason to expect a Cowboys victory, by margin. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. Green Bay has a cluster injury problem on their offensive line. They beat the Bears last week using four guards and a center, including Lucas Patrick, an undrafted rookie out of Duke. This is a problem against the fierce Cowboys pass rush, with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the NFL in sacks. Green Bay doesn’t have a single rush of longer than 13 yards in their first four games, and starting RB Ty Montgomery – the speedster – isn’t expected to suit up this week. The Packers have undergone a youth infusion in their secondary and, quite frankly, their linebacking corps isn’t very good. These are BIG problems going against a hungry, motivated Cowboys squad coming off a loss. Dez Bryant burned the Packers for 132 receiving yards and two TD’s in the playoff loss last January and he’s coming off his first really good game of the new campaign. Zeke Elliott primed for success here against a Packers stop unit not built to stop balanced attacks and power running games. Dak Prescott showed great leadership following the Cowboys first loss, rallying them from behind at Arizona the following week; a ‘bet-on’ QB in this spot. And Green Bay is an overvalued commodity right now, worth fading in this price range without hesitation. Take the Cowboys. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#458). NOTE: ERROR Correction! This play was originally entered wrong. The correct play is on the STEELERS! Here’s the premise. Pittsburgh came into the season power rated as one of the top Super Bowl contenders; right there with the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks. That power rating was probably a bit lofty for the first few weeks – the Steelers offensive starters spent virtually no time on the field together in preseason, with multiple key veterans nursing injuries. That lack of on-field time together hurt Pittsburgh badly in Week 1; a sluggish showing at Cleveland. They faced the Vikings elite defense next, but still won by 17 on this field – their only previous home game in 2017. Then Pittsburgh went to play at Chicago against the Bears stodgy defense and struggled. Last week, against the Ravens quality defense, the offense finally showed signs of breaking out of their funk. Le’Veon Bell got untracked, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben spread the ball around – five different receivers caught at least three passes. And Pittsburgh won comfortably, despite not putting up gaudy offensive numbers. As a bettor, my goal is to be proactive, not reactive. There’s nothing systemically wrong with the Steelers offense, despite their disappointing production. Let’s not forget how little time they spent together in training camp. Nor should we forget that Pittsburgh has faced good defenses three weeks in a row. And perhaps most importantly, this is a home field that really matters for the Steelers offense! Dating to the start of the 2014 campaign (no need to go back further, these numbers have been consistent for many years), Ben Roethlisberger has an 85.3 QB rating on the highway, but a 109.5 QB rating at home. He’s averaged more than a yard per pass better at home, and the TD-INT ratios are staggering: 62-20 here at Heinz Field vs. 24-23 on the highway. The Steelers have scored 24+ in 13 of their last 14 on this field. The markets have devalued them at least somewhat because of their sluggish start. After a series of mediocre offensive showings, this team is primed to go for the kill this week! Jacksonville was outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets last week, even if you take the Jets two long TD runs out of the mix. And make no mistake about it – Blake Bortles is getting worse, not better. With the game on the line against the Jets last week, Bortles misfired on pass after pass. He’s lost confidence in himself and his teammates have followed suit. When the Jags can run the football and rely on their defense, they’re certainly capable of playing competitively. But the Steelers defense has been downright nasty all year, a vastly underrated unit that has held foes to just 4.2 yards per play; best in the NFL. And asking Bortles to be decent in a ‘likely to be playing from behind on the road against a tricky, blitzing defense’ situation is not something I’m willing to do. Put it all together and this is a rock solid ‘buy low’ opportunity here for an elite team primed for a breakout game on their home field. Take the Steelers. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.