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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-18-16 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +1 | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tulsa (#542) When these two teams met just after New Year’s, Cincinnati was coming off a poorly played loss to Temple. In fact, Bearcats head coach Mick Cronin publicly apologized to the team’s fans and alumni for their performance. No surprise, then, that Cinci brought their ‘A’ game; jumping out to a 35-11 lead and cruising to a 19 point home win and cover. Tulsa missed 15 of their first 16 field goal attempts; an ugly loss that they still remember very well. Tulsa has improved by leaps and bounds since that early January defeat. Cronin knows it: “Tulsa is a different team from the last time they played us. They’re playing like they have six or eight seniors and they want to make the NCAA tournament. It jumps off the old iPad when you’re watching them how desperate they are to win every game. Their competitiveness is extremely impressive when you watch them…. They’re the fastest, most athletic team in our league.” Since that loss, Tulsa has gone 8-3. One of the losses came in overtime at league leader Temple, another came by only two points at UConn. The Hurricanes have been the only team good enough to knock off SMU on their home floor. And Cincinnati is the only team that the Hurricanes have yet to beat since joining the AAC. This is absolutely a ‘circled’ game on their schedule – it’s payback time! Hurricanes head coach Frank Haith: “It’s right there for us (to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, after getting snubbed despite a 23 win season last year). We’ve got to put ourselves in position to have more conversation about us, and that’s what (Thursday’s game) would do. It’s important, as they all are, but you’re not going to have many opportunities like this against one of the better teams in the league, a Top 25-caliber team.” Tulsa senior guard Shaquille Harrison: “We weren’t clicking on all cylinders at the time (of the first Cincinnati meeting). We weren’t playing hard and we weren’t jelling together. I think we are jelling right now. We are a lot more focused than we were then. We’re playing way harder.” Tulsa wins this game! Big Ticket: Take Tulsa. |
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02-17-16 | Auburn v. Arkansas -15.5 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Take Arkansas (#722) My clients and I have cashed winning bets against Auburn in their last two games, and my Auburn fade continues tonight. Let me start with an extended excerpt from my last anti-Auburn write-up: “Let me start with this key quote from Bruce Pearl, talking about the state of his team right now. “When you have those situations and you’re not winning, it makes it really difficult. What you do is you take the guys that you have and you do the very best that you can to figure out a way to compete…. Recruiting has gone well. We’ve got more help coming, and I’ll do the best I can with this team knowing that we’ve got good players coming that should help us make the kind of progress that we want to make.” Read between the lines here and you can clearly understand why Auburn is a ‘bet-against’ squad moving forward. You NEVER want to hear coaches talking about next year’s recruiting class in February! Auburn is riddled with key injuries and suspensions. Even with Tyler Harris back on the floor tonight (back injury) Pearl only has eight scholarship players at his disposal right now. With the official departure of point guard Kareem Canty, who has left the program, a Tigers team that lacked quality depth from Day 1 this year has now lost arguably their five best players to injury or off court issues. In particular, the Tigers backcourt has been effectively eliminated. Tahj Shamsid-Deen and TJ Dunans got hurt. Frosh NBA prospect Danjel Purifoy has not been cleared academically. And with Canty’s decision to leave the program, Pearl now has 6-8 senior forward Cinmeon Bowers manning the point for extended stretches. More Pearl, making excuses before tip-off: “Now that I’m playing (converted senior forward Bowers) at point guard some, it’s really hard. It’s not that it’s hard on him offensively, remembering all of the plays and what to do at two different positions, but defensively covering guards is completely different coverage than inside players. Rather than being out there playing, he’s having to think. It’s not that he can’t do it, but that’s the challenge.” Auburn has now lost seven consecutive games, all by double digit margins. Five of those losses came by 17 or more. On the road is where Auburn’s lack of polish and poise seems to show up the most. They’ve lost SEC road tilts by 26 at Tennessee, by 17 at Ole Miss, by 32 at Florida, by 18 at Vanderbilt and by 17 at lowly Missouri; an easy team to fade even in this lofty pointspread range. And make no mistake about it – after ugly blowout losses on the road last week, this is very much a statement game for Mike Anderson’s squad tonight. His quote: “For our guys it’s an opportunity for us to kind of re-energize and play with that energy we are capable of playing with and get the game in an up-tempo setting…. Last week was one of those bumps, so let’s see if we can get over that hurdle and get ready for this stretch drive. There’s three weeks left in the season and you want to be playing some of your better basketball right now. Are we playing it right now? That remains to be seen. But this week here is going to be really critical for our team.” Arkansas last home game was an 18 point win over Tennessee; 5-1 SU and ATS at home in SEC play. That’s an under-the-radar emerging trend worth backing here. Take Arkansas. |
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02-16-16 | Ole Miss +9.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 56-71 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Take Ole Miss (#545) The Aggies are in free-fall right now, suffering four straight losses and five losses (three of them as favorites) in their last six games. A team that was ranked as high as #5 in the country is no longer ranked at all this week. Their confidence is shot – if you watched them blow their last home game against South Carolina as 9.5 point favorites, you saw a group of nervous, tentative kids playing not the lose, despite the benefit of their roaring home crowd behind them. Billy Kennedy has a veteran team at his disposal, but there’s no legacy of success in College Station and the talent level on hand isn’t going to overwhelm Ole Miss. They’ve got Kentucky coming to town next, with a chance to make a statement against the Wildcats. In between is this matchup against Ole Miss; not exactly a legitimate ‘step-up’ spot for this slumping squad that has been consistently overvalued for the better part of the last month (1-6 ATS L7 games). And it’s surely worth noting the impact of that lofty ranking from last month. This was a 21 win NIT team last year. Ask them before the season if they would be happy with a 7-5 record in SEC play and non-conference wins over the likes of Gonzaga, Baylor and Texas and to a man, the Aggies would have been thrilled. But when you look at those recent results within the full context of their season, a team ranked as high as #5 can now only be disappointed. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is headed in the opposite direction. They played one of their best games of the year, blowing out Arkansas on Saturday, despite poor games from their two leading scorers, with Stefan Moody going only 4-17 from the field and Sebastian Saez lasting only 13 minutes before fouling out . That win over the Razorbacks improved the Rebels to 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven, an UNDERvalued commodity, in sharp contrast to their opponent. The Rebels have been hanging tough routinely in hostile environments. Heck, they’ve been hanging tough everywhere. Ole Miss hasn’t lost a single game by more than nine points since a January 2nd blowout at Kentucky, notching wire-2-wire spread covers as underdogs at Florida, Kansas State and Mississippi State in their last three tries. Expect more of the same tonight! Take Ole Miss. |
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02-14-16 | Indiana v. Michigan State -7 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show |
Take Michigan State (#844) There are two key points that have my laying the points with Michigan State today. We’ve got the Spartans off a loss – a bet on situation -- and Indiana is still something of an overvalued commodity. Let me start with the anti-Hoosiers element of the equation. The Hoosiers sit in a first place tie in the Big 10, despite the fact that they would be underdogs on a neutral floor to at least four teams in the conference (Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland and Iowa). Why are the Hoosiers in first place ahead of those teams? Simple – they haven’t had to play them yet! Indiana escaped with a seven point home win over Iowa earlier in the week; their first true ‘step-up-in-class’ Big 10 game all season. The only separation between the two teams came because Iowa missed free throws (13-23) while Indiana made theirs (18-21). Indiana got the win and cover, but the Hoosiers didn’t prove a thing to me other than that they can beat good teams at home when the free throw edge is in their favor. The Spartans beat the Hoosiers by 20 on this floor last year, and there’s ample reason to think that Tom Izzo’s squad is capable of a similar effort here. Michigan State has had five days to stew about their one point heartbreaking overtime loss at Purdue. Izzo: "We played hard, but we didn't play smart. It's especially tough when you miss three dunks and lose by one point. Matt had his guys ready to play. Their big guys are hard to guard. I thought the better team won." Now that’s a quote primed to light a fire under his team’s collective ass! It’s worth noting that Sparty still covered the spread in defeat in that contest, their fifth consecutive pointspread cover. Off their last loss, Michigan State rebounded to win and cover at home against a Maryland team that’s better than these Hoosiers. Michigan State is the undervalued commodity here, worth supporting in this very reasonable price range, especially given their strong shooting at the free throw line (78% L5 games, 73% YTD), giving the Spartans a solid shot to cover the spread late even if they don’t blow out the Hoosiers from the opening tip. Take Michigan State. |
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02-13-16 | Xavier +4 v. Butler | Top | 74-57 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Xavier (#541) We’re getting a bargain price to support the better of these two teams as an underdog in a prime bounceback spot. That puts me firmly on the Musketeers side here in a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Xavier is the best offensive team in the conference, averaging more than 78 points per game in Big East play. They’ve been dominant on the road all year, winning SU and ATS at DePaul, Providence, Marquette, St John’s, Wake Forest and Michigan, as well as dominant wins and covers on a neutral floor against Alabama, USC and Dayton. But Xavier is coming off a dismal effort in an ugly loss at Creighton earlier in the week, a game where they shot 1-21 from three point range. It’s certainly worth noting that the Musketeers have bounced back strong following their two previous defeats this season; one of which was a 19 point win over the same Butler team they’ll face today. This quote from Xavier head coach Chris Mack really stands out – we can expect Xavier to be ready to play today! “I really felt like there was no readiness to play on our part. We were miserable from 3. It's hard to overcome a 1-for-21 shooting night from the 3-point line. But it was our readiness to play, our lack of readiness to play, that ultimately put Creighton on top." Butler’s two home losses have come against arguably the two best teams they’ve faced on this floor, unable to get past Providence or Villanova. They’ve won three straight for the first time since December, but all three came against flawed foes in good spot for the Bulldogs. The Musketeers have dominated this series; 8-1-1 ATS in ten meetings since the start of the 2010-11 campaign. That’s a streak worth riding again here with a Big Ticket sized wager! Big Ticket: Take Xavier. |
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02-12-16 | USC -1 v. Arizona State | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Take USC (#861) There are two legitimate concerns here for USC backers. First, the Trojans are in the Top 25 this week. Before this season, USC hadn’t been ranked at any point since 2008. USC was ranked for one week back in January, but they went 0-2 SU and ATS at the Oregon schools; unable to maintain their intensity and composure under the spotlight. And second, USC travels to Arizona on Sunday, a potential ’Top 25 showdown’ lookahead, a rematch of their ‘instant classic’ four OT thriller from last month. If you’re making a case for Arizona State, you’ll likely focus on those two key points. I’m not convinced that either one of those two concerns is fully valid. And if they’re not, USC is clearly the better of these two teams, priced in an ATS range where a SU win basically equates to a pointspread cover. It’s certainly not like USC can’t win on the road, notching double digit victories at UCLA and at Wassou already in PAC-12 play. And their experience (failure) earlier in the season when ranked provided a real learning opportunity for head coach Andy Enfield: “Now we’re ranked again, and we’re on the road again, so we will see if we have learned anything from last time.” Junior guard Katin Reinhardt, talking about that 0-2 trip to Oregon: “We worked so hard to be a really good basketball team and to get the recognition that we deserve. We saw that ranking and then we lost it.” Good teams learn from past mistakes and USC has certainly shown ample signs that they’re capable of doing just that. Frosh forward Bennie Boatright: “Our confidence is really high; we’ve been focusing on the game plan each and every day … We expect to go out there and play hard. That’s what we do. We’re not really focused on the rankings right now; we’re just focused on getting better….They’re very physical, and they shoot a lot of threes, so we have to close out on them and try to deter them a bit. Coach emphasizes defense, defense, defense. Everybody’s been stepping up because we have a lot of weapons.” Coach Enfield, talking about USC’s quality depth, something that Arizona State really doesn’t have much of in Bobby Hurley’s first year on the job. “Some of the players that aren’t playing a lot or don’t have that many minutes or don’t play at all are good basketball players. It’s just that the first seven or eight are really good right now; they’re playing at a high level. It is nice to have depth off the bench … It doesn’t matter who we have on the court; we can score at every position.” USC’s scoring depth – five players averaging more than 12 points per game – is problematic for the defensively challenged Sun Devils, with the PAC-12’s worst defensive field goal percentage allowed. The Trojans hit 49% from the floor in their double digit win over Arizona State in LA last month, while holding the Sun Devils to 38% from the floor. I’m not anticipating a complete turnaround here, and it’s surely worth noting that USC is 15-0 SU this year when holding foes to 82 points or less. Arizona State has scored 83 or more only six times in regulation in 24 previous games this season….Take USC. |
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02-11-16 | Iowa +3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NCAA Game of the Week: Take Iowa (#755) To call Iowa a ‘bet-on’ team in hostile environments is something of an understatement. Fran McCaffrey’s Hawkeyes are loaded with veteran talent. The likes of Jarrod Uthoff, Mike Gesell, Adam Woodbury, Peter Jok and Anthony Clemmons – four seniors and a junior – have notched a combined 395 previous starts in a Hawkeye uniform. That quintet led Iowa to road wins at North Carolina, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska and Penn State last year. This year, the Hawkeyes have won in SU fashion on some of the toughest homecourts in the conference, including wins over Michigan State by 17 in East Lansing as nine point underdogs, and at Purdue in West Lafayette by seven as 8.5 point dogs. When stepping down in class on the highway, this team has demolished the likes of Rutgers and Illinois. Their only loss by more than a single point since November came at Maryland, and even that game was a coinflip right into the final minute of regulation. Iowa doesn’t lose many games, even in hostile environments; a veteran team that has been through the Big 10 wars. As road underdogs over the past two seasons they are 7-2 ATS, with one of the two losses coming by a half point in that aforementioned loss against the Terrapins. They’ve won six of those games in SU fashion, just as I expect them to do tonight. Indiana sits only one game behind Iowa in the Big 10 standings, but they’ve gotten to this place without having to step up very much. Iowa has faced Big 10 heavyweights Michigan State, Maryland and Purdue five times already, going 4-1 SU and ATS in those games. Indiana hasn’t faced even one of those heavyweights in conference play yet, feasting on the weak without proving very much to this bettor. And even those games against weaker foes haven’t been easy for Tom Crean’s squad – they’re coming off a loss against Big 10 bottom feeder Penn State. Crean knows what’s coming tonight – trouble for his offensive execution against the Hawkeyes elite defense. “Their length is really hard to deal with. They cover a lot of ground, they don’t over-help, they can mix defenses. They don’t gamble, they disrupt you in a big way and they’re really good defensively. They’re really tight in the middle, they really make it hard for you to get into the middle and because of their length they make it hard for you to skip (passes. You’ve got to reverse the ball and have really good angles.” Crean is also very concerned about the Hoosiers ability to stop Iowa’s offense. “They do such a great job of what we call a gaggle, when there’s three guys on one side. They do a good job of having two guys on one side and three moving on the other side and you’ve got to be aware of everybody.” Indiana has been losing games like this one since Crean came to town. Wrong team favored here….. Big Ticket: Take Iowa. |
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02-10-16 | San Jose State +15.5 v. UNLV | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Take San Jose State (#569) Season long power rating numbers indicate that UNLV merits being priced in the -15 range against San Jose State tonight. But current realities for both teams trump the long term numbers when it comes to the game this evening. UNLV is an absolute mess right now, while San Jose State is clearly improving from their long time MWC bottom feeder status. Let me start with the anti-UNLV portion of the equation. It’s been a long, disappointing season already for the Rebels. They’ve lost three straight, coming off a devastating double OT defeat at the hands of Fresno State, now sitting in eighth place in the Mountain West, only one game out of last place. Seven of their losses have been heartbreakers, by four points or less, or in overtime. The Rebels have already fired head coach Dave Rice. And now the injury barrage has gotten worse! UNLV lost their best low post defender when Ben Carter got hurt last week, out for the year. Then, in the loss to Fresno, the Rebels lost their other primary big man, seven foot NBA prospect Stephen Zimmerman to a knee injury that will keep him sidelined for a while as well. In two games without Carter, this defense has allowed 87 and 88 points in regulation. Interim head coach Todd Simon was down to a six man rotation following the Zimmerman injury, using mostly four guard sets while playing a 2-3 zone defensively almost exclusively; a zone that they “hadn’t really been working on” in practice according to senior wing Ike Nwamu. And starting point guard Jerome Seagears aggravated his bruised hand in the loss to Fresno, no sure thing to be anywhere near 100% tonight! It’s worth noting that four different Rebels played more than 40 minutes of intense basketball in that loss to Fresno – don’t expect UNLV to be particularly ‘fresh’ tonight! That’s not a recipe for winning by margin against San Jose State! The Spartans are surging off back-2-back conference wins; a major accomplishment for a team that went winless in Mountain West Conference play last year. They’ve got shooters to beat the zone – Frank Rogers, Ryan Welage and Cody Schwartz have a combined 119 made three pointers this year, and several key bench cogs are solid three point shooters as well. UNLV isn’t poised to exploit San Jose’s low post deficiencies. And San Jose has done nothing but cover pointspreads, a consistently undervalued commodity: 8-3 ATS in conference play and 8-1 ATS in their last nine tries away from home. That’s an emerging ATS trend worth riding again here! Take San Jose State. |
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02-09-16 | Auburn v. Tennessee -11 | Top | 45-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Take Tennessee (#736) Auburn has been a sharp ‘home/road dichotomy’ team all year. Bruce Pearl’s squad has been good enough to beat the likes of Kentucky on their home floor, but they’ve been a SU and ATS disaster area on the highway. They’ve played five SEC road games, losing all five by double digit margins, their lone pointspread cover coming by a half point after the Tigers nailed a pair of three pointers in the final seconds of another blowout loss. To make matters worse for Auburn tonight, they’ll be short-handed as they travel to Tennessee to take on the revenge minded Vols. Leading scorer and starting point guard Kareem Canty has been suspended for the second straight game for ‘conduct detrimental to the team’. This comes on the heels of a 1 ½ game suspension for power forward turned point guard Cinmeon Bowers last week. It also comes on the heels of two key backcourt injuries that have left Coach Pearl with only three scholarship players in the backcourt. Pearl: “When you have those situations and you’re not winning, it makes it really difficult. What you do is you take the guys that you have and you do the very best that you can to figure out a way to compete…. Recruiting has gone well. We’ve got more help coming, and I’ll do the best I can with this team knowing that we’ve got good players coming that should help us make the kind of progress that we want to make.” Read between the lines here and you can clearly understand why Auburn is a ‘bet-against’ squad this evening. Auburn has lost five straight and eight of ten since beating Tennessee at home in their SEC opener; a game in which they shot 53% from the floor while hitting a dozen three pointers in the process. Tennessee won the rebounding battle, committed fewer turnovers and fewer fouls, but were done in by the Tigers hot shooting. In their last two home games, Tennessee has beaten Kentucky and South Carolina by margin, but they’re coming off a real stinker at Arkansas last weekend. They’ve got the right team at the right time with the right motivation to beat Auburn by double digits here. Take Tennessee. |
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02-08-16 | Nuggets -2 v. Nets | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Take Denver (#509) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with the Nuggets outright upset against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Super Bowl Sunday. And there’s ample reason to believe that Denver will continue their winning ways as they make the short trip to Brooklyn to face the Nets this evening. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar, the Denver Nuggets have become the single best pointspread team in the NBA in recent weeks. Denver isn’t sexy, a team without an All Star. They have no ‘name’ superstars on the roster and almost never get any TV time. Denver’s emphasis is on defense, not offense. Mike Malone’s squad is the epitome of a team primed to offer continued pointspread value for their supporters. The results don’t lie. The Nuggets are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 ballgames, including seven straight pointspread covers. During this span, they’ve beaten some pretty good teams – the Pacers, Pistons, Warriors, Raptors and Bulls – all as underdogs in SU fashion.” While Denver has done nothing but cover pointspreads in recent weeks, the Nets are 3-16 SU in their last 19 ballgames, bad news in a pointspread range where they’ll likely need to win in order to cover the pointspread. This team has precious little homecourt edge, just 9-20 SU at the Barklays Center, including a 3-16 run over the past two months. All three of their wins in recent weeks have come via hot shooting (110, 116 and 128 points scored in those games); bad news against a Nuggets defense that isn’t allowing many hot shooting nights of late. Ride the hot and fade the cold……Take the Nuggets. |
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02-06-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8 | Top | 108-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket NBA Game of the Week: Take Golden State (#520) We’ve learned something very clearly from the Warriors through the first half of this NBA campaign. When Golden State steps up in class, they’re a ‘bet-on’ team! In the last three weeks alone, Golden State has played three true ‘step-up’ games. They won at Cleveland 132-98, a game that was over by halftime. They won at Chicago 125-94, a game that was over by halftime. And they beat San Antonio 120-90; a game that was over by halftime. The Warriors haven’t just been beating their toughest competitors – they’ve been annihilating them. A team chasing the 1997 Chicago Bulls for the best record of all time is playing like one of the greatest teams in NBA history, worthy of support even in a price range like this one against Oklahoma City. The Warriors have only played once here in February, and only three times in the last ten days, as rested as teams get at this stage of the NBA season. And it’s surely worth noting how well Steve Kerr’s team has played with extra time to prepare, a ridiculous 13-0 SU, 9-3-1 ATS with two days or more of rest between games. The last time these two teams played on this floor, the Warriors won 117-91. The key was their defense on OKC superstars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. That duo went a combined 8-37 from the floor, hounded all day by Golden State’s defensive depth. Golden State is ranked #3 in defensive efficiency again this year, capable of containing opposing elites. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is in the midst of an underrated (virtually unnoticed) defensive collapse in recent weeks. Andre Roberson is not a ‘move the needle’ player when it comes to NBA injuries. But the Thunder’s best perimeter defender got hurt in a loss at Brooklyn and the Thunder’s defense has completely fallen apart since, allowing more than 113 points per game in their six games since he got hurt. No surprise then, that OKC is on a dismal 1-6 ATS skid – teams that don’t play defense don’t cover pointspreads. And teams that don’t play defense against Golden State in a step-up spot for the home team are primed to get blown out! Big Ticket: Take the Warriors. |
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02-05-16 | Celtics +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston (#759) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: “Brad Stevens should not be catching a full touchdown against Tyronn Lue.” Forget the personnel and the situation for just a moment. Stevens took Butler to back-2-back national championship games. He’s taken a Celtics team with no superstars and no commanding low post presence and turned them into a team that executes their gameplan as effectively as any squad in the league. Stevens is a master at halftime adjustments, one of the myriad of reasons why Boston has been at Top 5 pointspread team this year. And make no mistake about it – this is a statement game for the emerging Celtics against the team that swept them out of the playoffs last April. Boston has been at their best in this road underdog role. The Celtics hang tough with everybody – their last loss by ten points or more came in mid-December. They’ve won three of their last four on the highway in SU and ATS fashion, part of a 10-3 SU run in their last 13 games, with one loss coming in OT and the other two coming by six points or less. Low post behemoth Jared Sullinger, talking about Boston’s mentality on the highway: “We love ’em (road games), because we’re around each other even more and get to pick each other’s brains, and see what each other sees out there on the floor. We have a lot of fun.” Point guard Isaiah Thomas, talking about tonight’s game: "We gotta go in there and handle business. We know it's gonna be probably a hostile environment. They're a great team, but we're not going to back down from anybody." Boston brings their ‘A’ game here, plain and simple. While Stevens has been a master at making halftime adjustments, the Cavs have been outscored 63-32 in the third quarter of their last two games; needing OT to beat the Pacers, then losing in SU fashion at -8 favorites against Charlotte. Kyrie Irving: “We still have to learn how to win games. We can’t keep digging these holes.” LeBron: “We're (terrible) in the third quarter right now. We need to figure it out. I don't know what it is. I know coach (Tyronn Lue) and the coaching staff are trying to pinpoint what the case may be.” I’ll take the ‘Over’ as to when Lue and his staff figure it out….. A single blowout win over San Antonio on a night where every shot was falling for the Cavs (55% from the floor, 18-21 from the free throw line) has kept market perceptions for the Cavs sky high since Lue took over as head coach. This pointspread is legitimately inflated, giving us ample value to support what might be the better team right now in a statement game! Big Ticket: Take the Celtics.. |
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02-03-16 | Pistons v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Take Boston (#508) The Pistons are not playing particularly good basketball these days, and their recent barrage of injuries don’t make an immediate turnaround very likely. Starting point guard Reggie Jackson jammed his thumb on Monday, unable to practice yesterday even though he is expected to suit up tonight. Marcus Morris is dealing with a bout of knee tendinitis. Ersan Ilyasova missed their last game with a thigh injury. Kentavious Caldwell Pope has a sore oblique muscle; Aaron Baynes is dealing with knee problems. Most of these guys are likely to suit up tonight, and the betting markets tend to underreact when banged up guys aren’t sitting out. But make no mistake about it – this is not a healthy team, and Stan Van Gundy has been forced to adjust his practice habits as a result. With the Pistons struggling defensively on a nightly basis, these lost practice sessions really matter! Van Gundy, following another subpar defensive showing in a ‘step-up’ spot at Brooklyn on Monday: “We’re sort of stuck in a rut of not getting the job done. I don’t know if that’s fatigue catching up 50 games in and we’re in a tough stretch of the schedule where we’re playing a lot … but I know we’re a lot better defensively than what we’ve shown the last few weeks.” Boston lost to Detroit at home last month – they’re not going to look past the slumping Pistons. The Celtics won and covered at Madison Square Garden last night despite a dismal 3-19 shooting effort from three point range; getting the job done on the defensive end of the court. That’s downright scary for Eastern Conference foes, because the Celtics offense had been clicking on all cylinders prior to last night, scoring 109 or more points in ten straight games. The Celtics depth is wearing teams down – their second unit played very well again last night. And the success of that second unit leaves Brad Stevens squad relatively fresh for the second night of back-2-backs here – only Isaiah Thomas played more than 29 minutes. Boston is 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS on the second night of back-2-backs; primed to roll over Detroit this evening. Take the Celtics. |
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02-02-16 | Indiana v. Michigan -2 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Take Michigan (#758) Indiana has faced a remarkably easy road slate through the first month of their Big 10 campaign. Their four Big 10 road tilts have come at Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin; teams that are a combined 9-28 SU in conference play. Their only true road game in non-conference play came at Duke, an ugly 20 point blowout loss. The toughest foe Indiana faced on the highway in conference play – Wisconsin – is also their only Big 10 loss this season. Expect loss #2 to come tonight! In fact, it’s not just on the road where Indiana has been pounding weaklings. Their last three home games came against Minnesota, Northwestern and Illinois; a combined 5-24 SU in conference play. Their other two home games came against Wisconsin (a tight, non-covering one point win) and Ohio State, a team that has shown a propensity for ugly road losses. Michigan is, by far, the toughest test Indiana has faced since before Christmas, leaving the Hoosiers as a legitimately overvalued commodity as they travel to Ann Arbor this evening. John Beilein’s young squad has struggled in two key areas this season. They’ve struggled stepping up in class on the road. And they’ve struggled against strong low post defensive teams who dominate the glass. Indiana is neither! The Wolverines haven’t lost on this floor since a November defeat at the hands of Xavier, a loss that doesn’t look bad now that the Musketeers are sitting in the Top 5 in the latest Coach’s Poll. Michigan’s last ‘step-up-in-class’ game at home was an outright upset over a Top 5 Maryland squad, part of their 11-2 SU run since a bad loss at SMU (again, not so bad in retrospect, given how good SMU has been) in early December. There’s a decent chance they’ll get impact combo- guard Caris LeVert back in the lineup following an eight game absence tonight, but I like the Wolverines chances to win and cover whether LeVert plays or not! Take Michigan. |
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01-31-16 | Wright State +3 v. Detroit | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Take Wright State (#853) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game) Wright State is 10-1 at home, but just 3-8 SU away from the Nutter Center in Dayton. The betting markets think that’s meaningful. I do now. Raiders head coach Billy Donlon: “If we’re going to go back to the nonconference schedule, five of those (road) losses early on, we didn’t have our team. We were unhealthy.” Wright is coming off a true clunker on Friday night, blasted by Oakland’s high octane offense in a 26 point loss. Sophomore guard Grant Benzinger, following practice yesterday: “We fouled too much. We didn’t guard the ball as well as we could have. We didn’t beat our man to ball side. We didn’t get in the gap to get steals. We just left guys on an island to play one-on-one, and if you do that against Oakland, they’re going to score. We practiced really well today. We worked on getting back to what got us winning. I think we’re ready. Absolutely.” Wright State has dominated the series, 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings between these two schools. They’re facing an Detroit team that has lost six straight, many of them heartbreakers, simply unable to seal the deal with defensive stops late in tight contests. The Titans are not the better of these two teams, and this is most assuredly a step up spot for the road underdog. Wrong team favored here! Take Wright State. |
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01-30-16 | Oklahoma State v. Auburn +1.5 | Top | 74-63 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Take Auburn (#646) Oklahoma State hasn’t won a true road game yet this season, including an ugly 16 point loss at mediocre Kansas State in their last road tilt. The Cowboys have pulled off a handful of impressive upsets or near upsets at home, including a blowout over Kansas and a spread covering two point loss against Oklahoma. But this is not a team worthy of support in hostile environments. And Oklahoma State is in a nasty little slump right now, losing six times in their last seven games. Their home loss to Baylor earlier this week was a real confidence deflator, another game where Travis Ford’s kids had plenty of chances to win, but their late game execution simply didn’t get the job done. That matters in a pointspread range like this one, a game that the Cowboys will have to win in order to cover. Road woes are nothing new for Oklahoma in the Ford era. This team has been miserable ATS on the highway for quite some time; 10-15-1 ATS in their last 36 road tilts. A team with legitimate defensive deficiencies just has not been able to get the key stops when they’ve needed them most in tight games away from home. The Cowboys aren’t 2-6 SU in games decided by five points or less by accident, and it’s surely worth noting that their two wins both came in the early part of their non-conference schedule against Minnesota and Long Beach State, not exactly elites. Auburn, too, has a sharp home/road dichotomy. Bruce Pearl’s squad has been wildly inconsistent, but they’ve played their best basketball at home all year. They’ve got wins over Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee at home in SEC play, with two of the three victories coming in a similar ‘near pick ‘em’ spread range. Auburn is 5-0 SU in their last five close games, decided by six points or less, the antithesis of Okie State in that regard. Wrong team favored here. Take Auburn. |
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01-29-16 | Rockets +7.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Take Houston (#859) Teams that don’t play defense can’t lay points in this price range against quality offensive foes. And Oklahoma City certainly isn’t playing much defense of late, allowing 106, 116, 113 and 123 points in regulation in their last four games. No surprise, then, that despite a 3-1 SU record during that span, the Thunder are on an 0-4 ATS skid. This isn’t new or different. OKC has been a pointspread disaster area for months now, ranked #29 out of 30 NBA teams in profitability this season – only Phoenix has cost their backers more than the Thunder have. And this is not a particularly hungry team here, returning home off a successful road trip while winning 15 of 18 since Christmas. But they are a tired team. In the last 2 ½ weeks, this will be the Thunder’s third different set of ‘three games in four nights’. OKC hasn’t had two days off in a row since the calendar turned to 2016 – this will be their 16th game already here in January. They’ve flown from coast to coast, playing eight of their last twelve on the highway and this will be their eighth consecutive game with a court change in between. So, we’ve got a tired team who doesn’t play much defense in a relatively flat spot . We’ve also got a key, under-the-radar injury, with OKC’s best wing defender, Andre Roberson, out indefinitely. Roberson doesn’t move the needle one iota when it comes to pointspreads, but his defensive impact for OKC is very real, particularly in a game where they’ve got to stop James Harden from going off! The Rockets are coming off a complete no-show embarrassment, blown out by 31 by San Antonio on Wednesday, setting them up for a prime bounce-back spot here. Prior to that loss, they had gone 4-1 SU and ATS in their previous five on the highway, the lone SU and ATS loss coming in OT against the Clippers. Houston has matched up well with OKC in every recent meeting: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since the start of the 2014-15 campaign, including a pair of outright upsets over the Thunder on this floor. Don’t be shocked if that SU winning streak continues tonight….. Take the Rockets. |
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01-28-16 | Kings -2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Sacramento (#709) We’ve got a strong ‘bet-on’ vs. a strong ‘bet against’ in this matchup, setting the stage for a play worthy of Big Ticket: Game of the Month status tonight. Let me start with the ‘bet-against’ portion of the equation. The Pelicans have only 16 wins in their first 44 games for two reasons. First and foremost, they’ve been riddled with injuries since the start of training camp. Secondly, first year head coach Alvin Gentry hasn’t had much practice time with a healthy roster to solidify their leaky defense. ‘Leaky’ is something of an understatement – only the hapless Lakers and Suns rank lower than New Orleans when it comes to defensive efficiency advanced metric stats. New Orleans has played some of their best basketball of the season in recent weeks; 5-2 SU in their last seven games with the losses coming by one point against Houston and two points at Memphis. That stretch included a 12 point win as underdogs in Sacramento two weeks ago. But the injuries just won’t stop for this squad. All Star center Anthony Davis is doubtful this evening. Shooting guard Eric Gordon is out long term. Tyreke Evans is no sure thing to suit up, dealing with sore knees. That’s three of the Pelicans four leading scorers who are banged up or out. The Anthony Davis absence is the biggest of the bunch, both literally and figuratively. There have been seven previous New Orleans games where Davis either sat or left the game in the first quarter due to injuries. The Pelicans are 0-7 SU in those games, including losses to the likes of the LA Lakers and Denver Nuggets. And without Davis to patrol the low post defensively, Sacramento’s bevy of bigs should have a field day in the paint, getting good, high percentage looks near the basket. My clients and I have cashed three winners supporting the Kings in the last two weeks, including a SU road win at LA against the Clippers. And I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window in support of this undervalued commodity again tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up supporting Sacramento, with the numbers updated to reflect current realities. “Sacramento is always under-the-radar in the NBA betting marketplace; a complete afterthought for most bettors. But the Kings are playing their best basketball of the season right now, winning four straight and seven of their last ten. If the season ended today, they’d be in the playoffs for the first time since 2006, the second longest playoff drought in the league. DeMarcus Cousins is an unstoppable low post force right now, and Rajon Rondo is in the midst of a truly remarkable turnaround season. George Karl’s supporting cast has really stepped it up as well, a deep, confident and surging team. And with Willie Cauley-Stein healthy and joining fellow seven footer Kosta Koufos in the low post, the Kings are enormous in the paint. They’ve won the rebounding battle by more than ten boards per game over their last five contests.” The Kings are coming into this game with revenge off that bad home loss to New Orleans. They’re also coming into it off back-2-back losses in their last two games, suffering a one point double OT loss to Charlotte, followed by a ‘no-show’ in Portland the following night. Following their last two tries off back-2-back losses, the Kings have won SU and ATS by a combined 21.5 points. Sacramento on the road? In January alone, they’ve won SU and ATS at Oklahoma City, Utah, the LA Clippers and the LA Lakers while covering wire-2-wire in a one point OT loss at Dallas. The Kings road success is an emerging trend worth riding again tonight in a game I expect them to win comfortably! Take the Kings. |
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01-25-16 | Spurs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 90-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Take San Antonio (#517) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: “The Spurs can’t be +5 to any team on any floor.” Because that is the crux of my rationale here. The betting markets made a big adjustment in this pointspread when it was announced that Tim Duncan would be sitting this evening. That’s a knee jerk reaction if I’ve ever seen one! The Spurs are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS without Duncan this year. The deepest team in the NBA should get LaMarcus Aldridge back on the floor here following a one game absence. On a normal night, San Antonio goes at least ten deep and Greg Popovich certainly isn’t shy about using the back end of his bench. Duncan’s absence is essentially meaningless, but the markets have adjusted anyway. The Warriors might be the best team through the first half of the season, but they certainly aren’t the only elite team in the NBA. That’s what makes San Antonio’s accomplishments particularly impressive, entering tonight’s game on a 13 game winning streak. But I’m focusing here on San Antonio’s previous losses. They lost by four to Houston on Christmas, by three to Toronto, by three to Toronto and by three to Washington. Their only losses by more than four points through 44 games came on opening night at OKC (a six point loss in a game where San Antonio was leading by seven with under six minutes remaining before they went ice cold down the stretch) and a single flat effort at New Orleans before Thanksgiving. No disrespect for the Warriors, but they’ll be hard pressed to match their efforts against the Cavs and Bulls on national TV last week. And for all the ATS success Luke Walton’s team enjoyed, they’re 0-1 ATS with Steve Kerr on the bench this year and just 6-6 ATS as short favorites of 7.5 points or less; unable to dominate the stronger foes as consistently as they’ve dominated their weaker ones. I’ll take Coach Pop plus the points here in a game he’s been planning for since last summer…….Take the Spurs. |
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01-23-16 | Colorado -3.5 v. Washington State | Top | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Take Colorado (#671) I understood what Washington State was thinking when they hired Ernie Kent to be their head coach two years ago. The Cougars program had been steadily declining in the post Klay Thompson era. Pullman is no easy place to recruit too. And the Cougars brass wanted a veteran, experienced coach with PAC-12 connections. Bingo, Kent became the guy, even after a long break from his stint at Oregon working as a TV analyst. The hire made sense to the brass upstairs, the type of move that looks perfectly reasonable on paper. But Kent wasn’t a good coach at Oregon and at this late stage of his career, he looks even worse at Wassou. A 7-2 start to the season, beating up on D1 bottom feeders has gone south in a hurry: 2-7 SU in their last nine ballgames. Each of the Cougars last three defeats have been truly ugly blowouts by double digit margins, including a 21 point wipeout loss to Utah on this floor just two nights ago. In fact, the Cougs have won only once in four PAC-12 tries on this floor. Their ‘Swiss Cheese’ defense has allowed 90+ four times in six PAC-12 games while losing the rebounding battle by margin in five of those contests. This is the worst team in the conference once again; an easy fade in this price range against any decent, motivated foe. 14 win Colorado is certainly decent, and they’ve been great in these short lined games: 7-2 ATS when the spread falls between pick em and + or -7. But one of those losses came on Thursday when they were blasted at Washington, setting them up in a prime bounceback situation tonight. Head coach Tad Boyle: “I expect our guys to bounce back, absolutely.” Senior guard Xavier Talton talking about the Buffs following that smackdown: “(Our intensity) will probably be there even more now that we’ve dropped the first one. We know we’ve got to get back on track.” I’m not expecting this one to be close in the latter stages, but if it is, note that Colorado is a solid free throw shooting team, connecting at a 77% clip away from home this year. Take Colorado. |
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01-21-16 | Hawks v. Kings -1 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Take Sacramento (#708) Both the Kings and Hawks are playing the second night of back-2-backs this evening. But there’s a very different level of ‘freshness’ for the two squads following their victories last night. The Kings rested their starters in the fourth quarter of a blowout win at LA against the Lakers. The Hawks blew a lead in Portland, but scrambled back using ferocious energy to wrestle the game away from the Blazers in the final minutes. Sacramento is relatively fresh here. Atlanta? Not so much. The Hawks put together numerous extended winning streaks last year on their way to the #1 seed in the East. That hasn’t happened here in 2016. Their current three game SU and ATS winning streak matches their longest since the second week of the season, back in November, not a squad that has been able to consistently put strong showings together on a consistent basis. And this Kent Bazemore quote following last night’s game stands out to me, a ‘read between the lines’ situation where we get an idea that the Hawks might not have their ‘A’ game tonight. "We dug down deep and found another gear. We got some huge plays down the stretch. The fourth quarter was tough, and that has happened to us. Tonight we were able to turn up the intensity when there is not much left in the tank." Meanwhile, the Kings are playing their best basketball of the season right now, winning three straight and six of their last nine. If the season ended today, they’d be in the playoffs for the first time since 2006, the second longest playoff drought in the league. DeMarcus Cousins is an unstoppable low post force right now, and Rajon Rondo is in the midst of a truly remarkable turnaround season. George Karl’s supporting cast has really stepped it up as well, a deep, confident and surging team. One last factor needs to be mentioned here. The Hawks have truly owned the Kings in recent years, beating Sacramento in each of the last 15 meetings between these two teams. The Kings have this game ‘circled’ while the Hawks come into this game gassed. Take the Kings. |
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01-13-16 | Boise State -5 v. Nevada | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Take Boise St (#575) There’s a legitimate class difference between these two teams that is simply not reflected in this pointspread. And the betting markets are paying a little bit too much attention to Nevada’s SU success at the Lawlor Center this year. That’s why sharp $$ has been pouring in on the Broncos from the opener, but not so much $$ that the line has skyrocketed, leaving us with reasonable value to support the superior team in the superior spot. The Wolfpack haven’t been the same team since AJ West left the team for personal reasons just before Christmas. West’s size and low post presence are hard to replicate. Nevada has lost the rebounding battle four times in their last five games, the lone exception coming against undersized Air Force. And their win against Air Force last Saturday was their first pointspread cover since West left the program. Nevada has a solid point guard in Marqueze Coleman and a solid big man in Cameron Oliver. The supporting cast for first year head coach Eric Musselman is rather limited. And this homecourt edge is not nearly as strong as some are projecting – while the Wolfpack have gone 6-0 SU on this floor, their next pointspread cover in Reno will be their first of the season….. Boise is the best team in the conference right now, but they’re undervalued because they’ve failed to cover a bunch of huge pointspreads in recent weeks. The Cowboys went on an 0-5 ATS run when favored by 11, 17, 23 and 14.5 in four of the five games. But they’ve notched back-2-back dominating wins in their last two contests. They’ve already won and covered road games at Utah State and Portland and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a competitive loss at Arizona, a team that has earned my trust in hostile environments. Boise beat Nevada by 32 at home last year. They’ve got other recent wins against the Wolfpack by 13, 9 and 26 points since 2013, a one-sided series of late. I don’t expect that to change tonight. Take Boise. |
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01-12-16 | Maryland -1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Take Maryland (#757) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Michigan when they faced Purdue on the road last week, a 17 point loss that was non-competitive by the latter stages of the game. Many of the same elements in play for that contest are in play again tonight as the Wolverines try to step up in class once again. Here’s an excerpt from my last anti-Michigan write-up, with the numbers updated to reflect current realities: “Michigan has one fundamental flaw that is likely to doom them in games like this one – a lack of interior size. The Wolverines are loaded in the backcourt, but their senior point guard, Caris LeVert, is no sure thing to suit up tonight after sitting Michigan’s last few games with a leg injury. Considering that LeVert leads the team in scoring, rebounding and assists, his injury is a major concern. But the LeVert injury is not the key piece of the equation here – we’ll get a bonus if he doesn’t suit up, but I expect to win this wager even if he does play. The key here is the Wolverines inability to hang tough with bigger foes. All four of the Wolverines previous losses – Purdue, UConn, Xavier and SMU – have come against teams that were loaded with low post size and strength. All four of those teams dominated Michigan on the glass; all four won by 14 points or more. When the Wolverines face an opponent with interior size, they are relegated to shooting jumpers and losing the rebounding battle.” And that’s a very bad combo against Maryland! The Terps are as big and as talented as any team in the country. Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, Jake Layman and Michal Cekovsky make up a nasty low post quartet – dominating the glass, swatting shots away and dominating the paint on a nightly basis, as evidenced by their +7 rebounding margin and their stifling defense that has allowed less than 41% shooting for the season. A weaker Maryland team than this one beat Michigan by ten last year. The Terps have gone 5-1 SU away from home this year, including a 2-0 mark on the road in Big 10 play. Their lone loss came at North Carolina – no shame there, especially when we consider the Tar Heels interior size; big enough to match up with the Terps. In a game where the SU winner should equate with the ATS winner, look for Michigan’s struggles against elites to continue. Take Maryland. |
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01-09-16 | Charlotte v. Louisiana Tech -11.5 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Take Louisiana Tech (#616) Charlotte is a bottom feeder fat and happy off a rare SU road win. La Tech is a Conference USA powerhouse coming off a frustrating home loss to Old Dominion earlier in the week; snapping a 39 game home winning streak. The Bulldogs didn’t take Charlotte seriously last year, needing overtime to escape with a one point win. The two previous meetings were both blowouts, with LaTech winning by 20+ points both times. I’m expecting this meeting to be very comparable….. To say that Charlotte hasn’t beaten anyone is not an overstatement. The 49ers lost four starters from a sub .500 team last year, and Mark Price’s first year on the job hasn’t been pretty. Their four wins have come against Fuman, Southern Miss, Appalachian State and the Citadel, all teams that rank #225 or higher according to KenPom’s numbers. They’ve been hammered repeatedly when trying to step up in class, losing by 55 to Michigan and 28 to Miami-FL as two examples. Most importantly for this pointspread range, Charlotte doesn’t play much defense, allowing foes to shoot better than 50% against them on the road this year. This is the third game of their conference opening road trip – bad spot, and Coach Price knows what’s coming today: ““I’m sure they’re (LaTech) going to have a chip on their shoulders.” The #1 scoring offense in Conference USA was just held to their season low in points as that 39 game home winning streak was snapped. Now they’re facing a bad team that doesn’t play much defense coming off a rare road win. Bulldogs head coach Eric Konkel: “We take a lot of pride in playing here at home….I was proud of their effort and they way they fought back (after an ice cold shooting start). We have to do the very same thing in preparing for Charlotte.” Expect a blowout! Take LaTech. |
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01-06-16 | Duke v. Wake Forest +8 | Top | 91-75 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
Take Wake Forest (#528) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner betting on Wake as an underdog at Louisville on Sunday; a winner despite the fact that the Cardinals unexpectedly got key guard Trey Lewis back on the floor fully healthy. Rick Pitino, talking about the Demon Deacons: “Wake Forest has almost every player back (from last year). They’re a much, much better basketball team.” And Wake is certainly battle tested. Their road win at LSU after Christmas looks even better now that the Tigers have beaten Kentucky and Vandy in their last two games. They were good enough to beat Rutgers in Jersey and both UCLA and Indiana in Maui. The Demon Deacons have knocked off Arkansas and battled a strong Xavier team right down to the wire, another wire-2-wire cover. I believe Pitino, and the Deacons certainly pass the ‘eye test’ for those who have been watching them. Duke has depth concerns with Amile Jefferson sidelined. In their win at BC on Saturday – not a good team, just BC – Coach K played three of his five starters for 38 minutes or more. He’s got essentially a six man rotation, bad news against a Wake team that can go eleven deep now that they’ve gotten senior Cody Miller McIntyre back in the starting lineup following his injury. It’s surely worth noting that the Blue Devils win at BC was their first true road game of the season. I expect their second true road game to be much, much tougher. Take Wake. |
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01-05-16 | Wisconsin v. Indiana -7.5 | Top | 58-59 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Indiana (#712) To say that the Hoosiers have this game circled on their schedules is something of an understatement. Wisconsin has owned Indiana in recent years, 14-1 SU in the last 15 meetings between these two squads. That includes a 14 point win over the Badgers in Madison last year, a game where the Badgers shot 60% from the floor while hitting 28 of 31 free throw attempts. But there’s no comparison between recent Wisconsin teams and their 2016 version. Last year’s 36 win team was the best in school history, making it all the way to the national title game against Duke. Gone are a pair of NBA first rounders (Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker), point guard Traevon Jackson, glue-guy Josh Gasser and key reserve Duje Dukan, who made his way onto the Sacramento Kings roster before getting hurt. The massive flow of talent out of Madison this past spring is only one piece of the anti-Badgers equation here. The in-season retirement of head coach Bo Ryan is another huge factor. Ryan didn’t quit because he thought his team was primed to enjoy another banner campaign. He quit because he saw the writing on the wall and he didn’t have the energy to deal with it any more – this is a rebuilding season. This will be the Badgers first road game since Ryan quit. Their only major ‘step-up-in-class’ game on the highway before Ryan left was an ugly blowout at Oklahoma. And from all indications, the Badgers are likely to struggle to match up with Indiana here. Wisconsin assistant coach Gary Close, talking about the Badgers last trip to Assembly Hall: “They drove us crazy. Literally. Against a good offensive team, sometimes you're going to get exposed." Close, talking about how Wisconsin has struggled to emulate Indiana’s ‘drive first’ gameplan in practice: “It's very hard to duplicate their quickness… they're probably even better at attacking than they were two years ago.They'll try to throw a haymaker early. And our ability to stay in the game is really going to be important because the last thing you want to do is give this team some energy in this place." Close knows what’s coming tonight! The Hoosiers are celebrating the 40th anniversary of their 1976 championship team tonight, and the atmosphere in Bloomington should be even more raucous than usual. That’s good news for an exceptional offensive team loaded with future NBA talent – like Wisconsin was last year. Indiana has shot better than 53% from the floor this season while averaging just shy of 88 points per game. That’s very bad news for a Badgers team that doesn’t control the pace the way they did last year; a team that simply isn’t capable of trading points with potent offensive foes. The Hoosiers are perfect on this floor this year, including a truly impressive 21 point rout of Creighton. Their other strength (besides driving into the paint) is hitting three pointers, ranked #4 in the nation in three point shooting. Wisconsin’s perimeter defense isn’t shutting teams down from three point range this year. That sets the Hoosiers up to deliver a knockout blow in this game. I’m expecting a blowout, but even a competitive Indiana victory can cash our winning bet if the Hoosiers knock down their free throws late. This game is a mismatch, far more than the current pointspread would indicate. Big Ticket: Take Indiana. |
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12-29-15 | Pistons -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Take Detroit (#501) Let me start with the basic premise that the Pistons are better than the Knicks. In game lined near pick ‘em, I’d much rather have the superior team, regardless of venue. I’ll take Stan Van Gundy over Derek Fisher in this price range as well; something of a no-brainer. And the pointspread results YTD really show that disparity. In games lined at -2.5 or less, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS this year, compared to New York’s 3-5 ATS mark. That’s not an accident, and yes, it matters! I also want Detroit off back-2-back losses. The Pistons had one four game skid to close out a West Coast road trip (after a 2-0 start) back in mid-November. Since that time, the Pistons have lost back-2-back games three times. In their next game, Detroit won by double digits each time, including impressive efforts against the Heat and Rockets. When Van Gundy gives me quotes like this one following their last loss, I want my money on Detroit. Few coaches in the NBA are better at lighting a fire under their team’s butts than Stan Van. “Right now, our starters aren't giving us a thing, and our bench is having to try to save us. We've had awful starts in the last three games, and (Saturday) we had an awful third quarter. They had yesterday off, but they played like they practiced for 6 1/2 hours. When the ball doesn't move and there's no crispness and there's no energy, that's what ends up happening. It's just all products of the same thing." I’m expecting a strong game from the road favorite. The home underdog Knicks have now lost four straight, their third four game losing streak in the last five weeks. New York’s biggest problem is taking bad shots and failing to make those shots, held under 40% shooting twice in their last three games. Carmelo Anthony: “It’s not confident when (we’re) shooting the ball.” The Knicks aren’t playing much defense either, allowing opponents to enjoy a 2.29 assist-to-turnover ratio in their last five contests. On a night where we can expect Detroit to bring energy on defense and ball movement on offense, that particular assist-to-turnover stat is very troubling for New York’s chances of victory. Take the Pistons. |
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12-22-15 | Clemson v. Georgia -2.5 | Top | 48-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Take Georgia (#516) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Clemson last week as they stepped up in class against a ‘bet-on’ South Carolina team. And I expect to cash another winning bet against the Tigers tonight in another ‘step-up’ game against another ‘bet-on’ SEC team. In fact, Clemson has lost all four ‘step-up’ games that they’ve played this year, falling to Alabama, Minnesota and UMass – the only games that they haven’t been favored by double digits. I do not trust Brad Brownell’s team to hang tough on the highway today. Mark Fox has spent a good portion of the Bulldogs non-conference slate working on establishing player rotations and minutes – there’s been a fair bit of ‘let’s try these guys together and see if it works.’ But in their last win – a dominating effort against Georgia Tech – Fox appeared to have settled his rotation and allocation of minutes, pointing this team in a very positive direction moving forward. Georgia is loaded in the backcourt, with the senior duo of Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann, along with junior JJ Frazier (listed as questionable here), ensuring that the Bulldogs have at least one scorer/creator on the floor at all times. But the real key for Georgia has been the surprisingly effective play of their bigs, most notably Yante Maten, who has been a dominant low post force. Houston Kessler and Mike Edwards are also cleaning up the glass. Georgia isn’t a great free throw shooting team (always a concern in this spread range), but they’ve been getting to the line consistently and they’ve beaten their season average by a wide margin in their last two games. Cheap price to lay with the superior team here. Take Georgia. |
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12-19-15 | Texas v. Stanford +2 | Top | 75-73 | Push | 0 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Take Stanford (#796) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner supporting Stanford in their last home game, a blowout over DePaul. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities. “The Cardinal came out of their layoff for exams with a solid 14 point win over Dartmouth last Saturday, thanks to a stifling defensive effort. They followed that up with a dominating effort against DePaul earlier this week. In fact, since Johnny Dawkins squad suffered a pair of ugly loses to SMU and St Mary’s (no shame losing to either one of those top notch squads), they’ve held their last four foes (including Villanova!) to 35% shooting from the floor while going 4-0 ATS. This is an emerging, improving team that wasn’t highly regarded a month ago, exactly the type of team you can make money with in December!” Texas hasn’t played a true road game yet. They lost SU and ATS to Washington in Shanghai to open the season, wildly overvalued as an 11 point neutral site favorite. They won their rematch against the Huskies, but lost SU and ATS in step-up games against Michigan and Texas A&M in the Bahamas over Thanksgiving. They’ve failed to cover three times in four tries as a favorite since Thanksgiving. But last week, on national TV, they pulled the upset over North Carolina, ensuring continued value problems moving forward. And when I get a chance to take points with a clearly undervalued team at home against a clearly overvalued team, I’ll get to the betting window without hesitation! Take Stanford. |
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12-15-15 | Pacific v. Green Bay -9 | Top | 88-93 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Green Bay (#720) Pacific is a dead nuts ‘bet-against’ team right now; a program that’s in a world of hurt here in December. The program is under investigation by the NCAA for recruiting violations and the penalties have been severe. Senior leaders Sami Eleraky and Eric Thompson have not been cleared to play. Leading scorer Alec Kobre missed the first six games, went off for 24 against Irvine in his season debut, then managed only five points on five field goal attempts in the Tigers ugly blowout loss at Fresno on Saturday. The players had final exams last week, always a stressful time. Then, on Thursday, the NCAA dropped another bombshell. Head coach Ron Verlin and top assistant Dwight Young were suspended indefinitely. Pacific did not respond well, committing 20 turnovers in a 19 point loss at Fresno. Now sitting at 1-7 on the season, missing most of their senior leadership, their head coach and their top assistant, Pacific has to fly halfway across the country to Green Bay to take on a Phoenix team that wants to push the tempo and create turnovers. I do NOT expect this to end well for Pacific…. My clients and I backed Green Bay in the favorite’s role earlier this year when they blew out ISU Edwardsville 87-69; the only game all year that they’ve shot better than 50% from the floor. Now they get to face another opponent that doesn’t defend, shoot well or handle the basketball well. Green Bay has allowed a 0.58 assist-to-turnover ratio at home this year, wreaking havoc with opposing ball handlers. That’s going to be a problem for Pacific and their 0.63 assist-to-turnover ratio on the highway. And a bad team that’s been through a lot the last few weeks starts to commit turnovers thousands of miles from home is primed to fall apart and get blown off the floor. With Green Bay coming off a frustrating, buzzer beating loss to Toledo in their last contest, look for the Phoenix to take some of those frustrations out on a bottom feeder foe that isn’t being power rated low enough by the betting markets! Big Ticket: Take Green Bay. |
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12-12-15 | BYU v. Colorado -5 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado (#588) My clients and I lost a bet against BYU last week when the Cougars, after trailing by 20+ for most of the game at Utah, got hot in the final two minutes, turning a 19 point deficit into an 8 point loss, while covering the spread by a half point. It was a VERY frustrating loss, but we’ll get it back here! The betting markets are NOT pricing BYU appropriately these days, giving us a ‘Big Ticket worthy’ pointspread to fade them tonight in Boulder. And with two tight wins and covers (laying -4.5, they won by 5, laying -9, they won by 12) at home since that fraudulent ATS cover in Salt Lake City, the markets are adjusting the Cougars in the wrong direction. BYU has faced a truly easy early season schedule. They opened up facing five straight teams that don’t play a lick of defense, winning four of the five; the lone loss coming as four point road favorites at Long Beach State. They got annihilated at Utah, but the final scoreboard result doesn’t show it. And then they’ve notched those two tight wins and covers at home in the last week. But from an offensive efficiency standpoint BYU has clear problems especially considering the poor quality of competition they’ve faced. The Cougars have nearly as many turnovers than assists. They have shot poorly, only 45% from the floor and 33% from three point range. And their free throw shooting is abysmal, hitting under 62% from the charity stripe. BYU has no low post game; no natural inside scorer. They’ve lost both previous road games; not a team to trust heading into Boulder on Saturday Night. Colorado was a major disappointment last year following a string of four consecutive 21+ win seasons and three consecutive NCAA tournament berths. There were internal chemistry issues and injury issues, fairly typical for good teams in the midst of bad seasons. But this year has been a completely different story. Since their opening day loss to Iowa State, the Buffs have reeled off seven straight wins. Big man Josh Scott was hurt last year. This year, he’s been a low post force as a senior, averaging 18 points, 10 boards and more than two blocks per game; a clear matchup problem for the Cougs. But Scott’s not the only talent in Boulder these days – Tad Boyle can recruit! Nine players average 13 minutes per game for this deep squad. Wesley Gordon pounds the glass with Scott, another low post force. George King, after sitting out last year, has been a major scorer, just one of four guys who are capable of lighting it up from downtown. This team dominates the glass. They hit their free throws at a 75% clip, always key in this pointspread range. They’ve hit better than 40% as a team from three point range. And they’re primed to make a statement at home tonight . Josh Scott: "It's a big game for us. It's been busy this week (preparing for final exams) but all of us have been here before.” Big Ticket: Take Colorado |
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12-11-15 | Wizards v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Take New Orleans (#712) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Washington Wizards these days. Washington is just 3-7 SU in their last ten contests. Two of those three wins came in ‘step-up’ games for Randy Wittman’s squad, knocking off the Heat and the Cavaliers (both of whom have been very vulnerable to the upset of late). The third came by three points against a tired Suns team near the end of their long East Coast swing. From multiple reports, the internal chemistry in Washington’s locker room is not good right now. Head coach Randy Wittman is under fire, and both the on-court and off-court leadership from the Wizards veterans has not been good. Even with Marcin Gortat back on the floor, the Wizards frontcourt is severely depleted due to injuries and attrition. That’s bad news against New Orleans, with the most dominant big man in the game, and a supporting cast that has finally gotten healthy over the past few weeks. New Orleans has underachieved even more than Washington this year, as clearly evidenced by their 7-14 ATS mark without even mentioning their 5-16 record, a real shocker for a team that made the playoffs last year. The Pelicans defense has been truly awful, ranked dead last (behind the #29th ranked Lakers) in defensive efficiency. New Orleans has also struggled mightily with injuries, particularly with their backcourt as Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans have both been very limited. But the Pelicans got something they desperately needed this week - -a little bit of time off, and plenty of practice time during a lull in their schedule. They’ve played only once in the last week, an ugly home blowout loss to the Celitcs. Evans and Holliday have gotten a chance to acclimate with their teammates, and work on their defensive rotations. The Pelicans were good enough the beat the Cavs, Suns and Spurs in their three home games prior to that Celtics debacle, and this is very much a statement game for the home team, finally healthy and ready to make a run. Take the Pelicans. |
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12-09-15 | Clippers v. Bucks +5.5 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Take Milwaukee (#714) The full season stats for the Milwaukee Bucks are telling lies right now. Milwaukee ranks #26 for the full season in defensive efficiency, and they’ve had more than their fair share of ugly defensive ballgames. But those full season numbers haven’t been on display of late. The Bucks are coming off back-2-back stifling defensive efforts in wins and covers on this floor against the Knicks and Blazers. Five of their last six foes have been held to 95 or less. Jason Kidd’s squad has held their last five opponents to 40% shooting from the floor overall; just 27% from three point range, while forcing just shy of 15 turnovers per game. All of those numbers are far better than the Bucks full season numbers, but the betting markets are reacting slowly to the fact that the Bucks have returned to near full health (except at point guard) and Coach Kidd has been establishing much clearer player rotations as a result. Plain and simple – the young, athletic Bucks are a ‘bet-on’ team at this stage of the campaign. The LA Clippers, on the other hand, are most assuredly NOT a bet-on team, even with Chris Paul and JJ Redick rejoining the lineup in their four point win over Minnesota on Monday. That duo was very rusty, and I’m not convinced they’ll be at the top of their games tonight either, especially with an NBA-on-TNT showdown at Chicago looming on the second night of back-2-backs tomorrow. The Clips have struggled to play 48 minutes of intense basketball on a nightly basis, suffering lulls and flat stretches far too consistently for Doc Rivers liking. Team chemistry killers Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith are both reportedly already on the trading block, just 21 games into the season, in an effort to repair the shaky chemistry here. It’s surely worth noting that the Clips haven’t been winning by margins, notching only six wins by more than six points in their first 21 games overall. Throw in some abysmal free throw shooting (second worst in the NBA) and the Clips look like false favorites to this bettor tonight! Take the Bucks. |
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12-07-15 | Suns v. Bulls -6 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Take Chicago (#714) The Bulls have been terrible favorites all year. They’re just 2-8 ATS when laying three points or more, including an 0-fer at the United Center; their lone cover as chalk coming in a six point win as one point favorites over Oklahoma City. In their first 17 games, the Bulls have won by more than six points (the prevailing pointspread as I write this) only three times. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns aren’t losing by margin when they lose. They’ve dropped four straight on this East Coast road trip, all by five points or less. Eight of their 13 losses this season have come by six points or less, a team that’s been unable to win their fair share of tight contests. So the Bulls can’t cover as chalk and the Suns aren’t losing by margin. So why on earth am I betting on Fred Hoiberg’s quad tonight? Simple – it’s all about the spot here, and this is a particularly ‘stand out’ spot on both team’s respective schedules. The Suns are in a world of hurt this evening. They’re playing on the second night of back-2-backs, closing out a truly brutal road trip. This will be their sixth game in nine days, all in different cities following a court change. They’ve lost eight of their last nine overall, a skidding, rudderless team right now. To make matters even worse for Phoenix, they aren’t playing a lick of defense without injured center Tyson Chandler in the lineup; torched repeatedly by good offensive teams. And yesterday’s loss was a particular heartbreaker, rallying from behind only to lose on a last second buzzer beater. Their two best players, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, both played more than 40 minutes in that contest. When the Bulls make a run tonight, I’m not convinced in the slightest that Jeff Hornacek’s squad will be able to respond positively to adversity. While Phoenix is in a clear ‘bet-against’ spot, the Bulls are in a clear ‘bet-on’ spot after letting one get away in their last contest, a home loss to Charlotte, hitting only two shots in the final five minutes of play. Coach Hoiberg: “We missed some really, really good looks. Even Doug (McDermott) and Jimmy (Butler) there at the end, they had great looks that hit every part of the rim and bounced out." The Bulls have had a day off to rest and practice, something the Suns desperately need right now. This Jimmy Butler quote reeks of confidence, making Chicago a ‘bet-on’ team here even in a role that they’ve struggled with this season. “We score enough points. It's all about our energy level, guarding at times and know(ing) the other team's personnel. We're a good team. We mess up here and there, but we'll fix it.” Take the Bulls. |
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12-04-15 | Nets +3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Take Brooklyn (#501) My clients and I have cashed several winning bets supporting the Brooklyn Nets on their current waaaaaay under-the-radar 10-1 pointspread run. And I have no hesitation pulling the trigger on the Nets again tonight as underdogs against a team they beat in all four meetings last year. Let me start with an excerpt from my most recent write-up in support of the Nets – their outright upset over Phoenix earlier in the week. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “The mainstream narrative and the current realities of the Brooklyn Nets simply do not mesh. That has resulted in legitimate value supporting Lionel Hollins squad on a nightly basis, with the betting markets continuing to sleep on the Nets. And it’s easy to understand why “I had the Nets power rated as the 2nd worst team in the NBA coming into the season – only the truly hapless 76ers were rated lower. And for the first few weeks of the campaign, the Nets lived up to those very low expectations, going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS, their lone cover coming in a ten point loss as twelve point dogs at Memphis. “But make no mistake about it -- the Nets are ‘head and shoulders’ better now compared to those early struggles. How do we know? Look no further than the NBA’s most under-the-radar pointspread run, with Brooklyn going 10-1 ATS in their last ten contests “Hollins’ Grizzlies teams were known for their defensive intensity. The Nets defense has been positively smothering in each of their last three games, shutting down the pick and roll, eliminating penetration into the paint and communicating well on the floor. And their confidence level seems to increase by the day.” The Knicks have lost four of their last five, the lone win coming against hapless Philly on the second night of back-2-backs immediately following the Sixers first win of the year. But the Knicks are not a team to lay points with; favored only four times in their first 19 games; failing to cover as chalk against the likes of the Lakers and Bucks. The Knicks have gotten the mainstream media love and the betting marketplace support that the Nets deserve. But more than any other factor, this bet is about Brooklyn’s overall power rating number; a number that continues to offer value to support this team on a nightly basis. Take the Nets. |
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12-01-15 | Suns v. Nets +3.5 | Top | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Take Brooklyn (#706) The mainstream narrative and the current realities of the Brooklyn Nets simply do not mesh. That has resulted in legitimate value supporting Lionel Hollins squad on a nightly basis, with the betting markets continuing to sleep on the Nets. And it’s easy to understand why I had the Nets power rated as the 2nd worst team in the NBA coming into the season – only the truly hapless 76ers were rated lower. And for the first few weeks of the campaign, the Nets lived up to those very low expectations, going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS, their lone cover coming in a ten point loss as twelve point dogs at Memphis. But make no mistake about it -- the Nets are ‘head and shoulders’ better now compared to those early struggles. How do we know? Look no further than the NBA’s most under-the-radar pointspread run, with Brooklyn going 9-1 ATS in their last ten contests. How about their under-rated home court, where Brooklyn has pulled the outright upset over Detroit, Boston and Atlanta in their last three tries. They lost by only two at Cleveland; took Golden State to overtime, proving that they are capable of stepping up in class. Hollins’ Grizzlies teams were known for their defensive intensity. The Nets defense has been positively smothering in each of their last two games, shutting down the pick and roll, eliminating penetration into the paint and communicating well on the floor. And their confidence level seems to increase by the day. Vastly underrated point guard Jarrett Jack: “Collectively, we know that we can stay in ballgames. We’ve been fighting with top-tier teams, teams that are the middle of the pack. You know, we can be one of those teams if we come in and try to stick it to them for 48 minutes. Even [Sunday night], we didn’t play our best. … But if we can put a complete 48-minute game together, we’re pretty tough to deal with.” Phoenix isn’t expected to have their big man, Tyson Chandler, on the floor tonight, bad news against a Nets team that has consistently won the battle of the boards all year, with Brook Lopez manning the low post. The Suns just opened their road trip with an upset win at Toronto, but they haven’t won back-2-back road games all year. Unlike the Nets, the Suns aren’t playing much defense right now, allowing a whopping 115 points per game on 50% shooting over their last five contests. Wrong team favored here! Take Brooklyn. |
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11-17-15 | Hornets v. Knicks +1 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Take the New York Knicks (#510) The Hornets beat the Knicks last week in a wild game. Charlotte rallied from a double digit fourth quarter deficit, getting a Tyler Zeller putback with one second on the clock and surviving a Kristaps Porzingis three pointer that was waved off, just after the buzzer. Revenge – even short turnaround revenge – doesn’t exist at the NBA level except in truly unique circumstances. That being said, it’s surely worth noting that the Knicks took only seven free throw attempts compared to 28 for the Hornets. Charlotte hit twice as many three pointers as New York did. And the Hornets committed only five turnovers, compared to 16 for the Knicks. Given those type of box score differentials, the fact that this was a tie game – in Charlotte – with two seconds left clearly indicates that there are matchup edges here for New York. And there are! The Knicks are much, much bigger in the paint than Charlotte, capable of dominating the glass here, just like they did last week (+19). The Knicks have the deeper of the two benches, especially with key Hornets wings PJ Hairston and Jeremy Lamb both missing practice yesterday; neither of whom is anything close to being a sure thing to suit up tonight. Hairston is Carmelo Anthony’s primary defender; Lamb has been their top scorer off the bench. The injuries to that duo won’t affect this pointspread one iota, but they are most certainly impactful injuries for this particular matchup. A big part of my NBA profits comes from noting which ‘non-spread moving’ injuries really matter, and these two stand out like sore thumbs in that regard. And with Al Jefferson struggling in early season play, those injuries matter even more! The Knicks are doing two things they didn’t do at all last year – playing defense and covering pointspreads, notching four straight ATS covers heading into tonight thanks to consistently strong efforts on the defensive end of the court. Charlotte is in a tough scheduling spot, in the midst of a seven game in eleven day stretch, with a court change between each game. No surprise here if the Hornets come up flat this evening, and even if they don’t, the matchups for the Knicks are good enough to win! Take the Knicks. |
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11-16-15 | Pacers +6 v. Bulls | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Take Indiana (#503) No team in the NBA has improved more from opening night to now than the Indiana Pacers. Indiana came into the season with a load of question marks. How would they manage low post minutes without Roy Hibbert and David West? How long would it take for Monte Ellis to fit in? Would Paul George be able to return to his superstar level one year removed from his gruesome injury? With losses to the Raptors, Jazz and Grizzlies – all by margin – in their first three games, the betting markets soured quickly on Indiana. Since that 0-3 start, the Pacers have found their mojo, notching six wins in their last seven games; all against teams that were playing at least fairly well at the time. Their lone loss came at Cleveland in a wire-2-wire pointspread cover as a road underdog. They also won SU as road dogs at Detroit and Boston; solid wins. The Ian Mahinmi/Jordan Hill/Lavoy Allen trio are providing quality low post minutes. Paul George is playing at a superstar level. Monte Ellis has had a pair of 20+ point outings in the last week. In short, this team is rolling! The Pacers nearly blew a 27 point lead against the T-wolves in their last game, allowing Minnesota to go on a 40-14 second half run to make the final score much closer than the game actually was. They were not amused by that near collapse, ensuring full focus tonight. Paul George: “We can't take teams lightly. Giving up 30 points in the fourth (quarter) is unacceptable. We've got to give a better effort for a full 48 (minutes)." While Indiana is a ‘bet-on’ team at this stage of the campaign, the Bulls are not. Chicago has been an overvalued commodity, just 3-6 ATS, including an 0-4 spread mark as home favorites of -2 or higher. The 2015-16 Bulls have been unable to string any sort of winning streak together – their current two game winning streak matches their longest of the season; not a team that has gelled as a group just yet. Indiana won on this floor with a weaker team last year, and I expect the Pacers to battle to the final buzzer; ‘live’ road underdogs tonight. Take the Pacers |
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11-10-15 | Hornets -1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Take Charlotte (#511) Strong spot play for the Hornets tonight. Charlotte is coming off their first non-competitive loss of the season, an ugly blowout in San Antonio, followed by their first two day break since the season started after a tough stretch of six games in a ten day span. Hornets head coach Steve Clifford took a page out of the Greg Popovich playbook following that loss to the Spurs. He let his team stay in San Antonio for the night, avoiding a common jetlag situation, then gave them a legitimate day off on Sunday. And Clifford’s quotes speak volumes about a coach who ‘gets it’: “I think it just makes more sense to avoid that 2:30 or 3 a.m. check-in time. I know when I check in at that time I don’t get to sleep until 4 or 4:30. I’d rather stay and get up (for a flight) tomorrow….. How you pace your team is everything in this league. The fact is you have to have your energy for the games. You play 82 games and how much you practice has to be factored with that…. Regardless of how long it is, practice is about having the right approach. And (game-day) shootaround is also where you can put in two or three things you’re going to need. It’s about being focused with good intensity.” While this is a clear ‘step-up’ spot for the road favorite, the same cannot be said for the home underdog. Minnesota shot light’s out in Atlanta last night, hitting 57% from the floor, while dominating the glass with a +13 rebound margin. Even despite that hot shooting and strong board work, the Hawks rallied back from a massive 34 point deficit to take a one point lead, but the T-wolves went on an 11-0 run to close out the game over the final three minutes. It was intense, stressful basketball for extended stretches of the second half. I’m not expecting the Timberwolves to be fresh tonight. They’re playing on their first set of back-2-backs of the young season off an intense road win last night. Minnesota’s home court advantage is virtually non-existent these days; 0-2 SU and ATS this year; 0-10 SU, 1-9 ATS in their last ten home games dating back to last year. The Hornets swept the season series last year, including an eleven point win on this floor. A similar result tonight would be no surprise for this bettor! Take Charlotte. |
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11-05-15 | Heat -3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 96-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Take Miami (#703) I’m not convinced in the slightest that lottery bound Minnesota is primed to give Eastern Conference heavyweight Miami a tough test this evening. Yes, the T-wolves have gotten off to a somewhat surprising start, notching a pair of road wins to open the season, before coming up short as home favorites against Portland on Monday. But Minnesota hasn’t faced a quality foe yet, facing off against the Nuggets, Lakers and Blazers – three teams that also rank in the bottom ten of the NBA, just like the T-wolves do. And all the emotion that this team has spent over the course of the last week matters as well, dealing with the sudden passing of well-liked head coach Flip Saunders. Interim head coach Sam Mitchell, following practice yesterday: “"There's no words you can give to someone to make them feel better. All you can do is be there." Miami is coming off a poorly played home loss to the Hawks on Tuesday. Dwayne Wade left early, suffering from migraines. As a team, the Heat were ice cold from three point range, connecting on only 5-28 from beyond the arc. Miami’s deep bench had a rough game as a group, connecting on only six of their 24 shot attempts. None of these are likely to be long term problems, especially with Wade expected back on the floor this evening. The Heat have won on six of their last seven visits to the Target Center, and four of their last five wins on this floor have come by double digit margins. Expect those streaks to continue tonight. Take the Heat. |
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11-04-15 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 98-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Take Boston (#503) My clients and I have already cashed winning bets on the Celtics (in their lone win of the season, against Philly) and against the Pacers (when they lost by 9 at home to Memphis). The situation is ripe to cash another winning bet on the Celtics and against the Pacers tonight. I want Boston off a pair of early season losses, ensuring proper hunger and focus here. The Celtics biggest early season problem has been on the offensive end of the court – their shots just haven’t been falling. In losses to the Raptors and Spurs, the Celtics combined to shoot less than 37% from the floor and just 13-55 from three point range This is not likely to be a long term problem. Point guard Isaiah Thomas, following the loss to San Antonio: “As a group, we couldn't hit shots. Then, when we did get back into it, you've got the Spurs making shots." Head coach Brad Stevens: “We’ll have better shooting nights than this.” Key win Evan Turner: “Evan Turner: “I've been around a few teams and I think our rhythm, how we're playing, and the chemistry and our intensity in practice, it shows well for the future.” The Celtics have great depth, both in the frontcourt and in the backcourt. That’s bad news for the Pacers, coming off their first win of the year in Detroit, now playing on the second night of back-2-backs. Indiana is playing smallball, with a big man rotation consisting of Ian Mahinmi, Lavoy Allen and Jordan Hill. Paul George is their leading rebounder. No surprise, then, that the Pacers have been outrebounded in every game thusfar. The Celtics won three times in four meetings with Indiana last year, and they covered the spread in their only defeat, an OT loss on this floor. It’s a strong situational spot for the road favorite, and they’re clearly the better of these two teams right now. Take the Celtics. |
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11-03-15 | Bulls v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 105-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Take Charlotte (#702) The Bobcats are 0-3. They’ve lost back-2-back games when a potential game tying jumper rimmed out in the closing seconds, losing to Atlanta by 2 and 4 points. Veteran acquisition Nicholas Batum, following the loss to the Hawks over the weekend: “We have to learn from those games. It's still early in the season, but we're right there -- we're going to be OK." I agree with Batum’s assessment, expecting a ‘circle the wagons’ type effort at home from a team that expects to contend for the postseason. The Bobcats beat the Bulls twice after the All Star Break last year, winning both times by double digit margins as an underdog. And while the Bulls are 3-1 SU, they’ve only covered one pointspread thusfar. They fell asleep in the fourth quarter against Orlando in their last outing, allowing the Magic to go on a 14-0 run. They fell apart in the final minute against Cleveland, turning an eight point lead into a two point win thanks to breakdowns on both ends of the floor. They blew a fourth quarter lead at Detroit, losing in overtime. This is not a team that’s playing dominant basketball for 48 minutes on a nightly basis. Chicago currently ranks #19 in offensive efficiency and #25 in assists; one of the few teams in the league with more turnovers than assists. The interesting thing about the Bulls is their #4 defensive efficiency ranking. The markets have responded to that statistic – hence the Chicago $$ pouring in this morning, driving the line up from an opener of -3. But I’m not buying the concept that ranking is based on anything other than early season randomness – the 2015-16 Bulls under Fred Hoiberg are not an elite level defensive squad. Look for that to show during crunchtime tonight! Take the Hornets |
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10-30-15 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#718) The bottom fell out on the Nuggets last year, as they finished a dismal, injury plagued, coach-firing campaign with a 30-52 record. On the heels of a 36-46 season in 2013-14, the markets certainly haven’t viewed Denver as a likely candidate to bounce back with a winning campaign this year. In fact, given the current pointspread for tonight’s matchup (down to Denver -3.5 as I write this), the betting markets are viewing the Nuggets and the Timberwolves as near even teams. I disagree with that assessment STRONGLY……. There’s plenty of veteran talent in Denver right now. Danilo Gallianari is healthy, Kenneth Faried is healthy and the likes of Jameer Nelson, Randy Foye, Mike Miller and Darrell Arthur coming off the bench give Denver a solid base to work with. Rookie point guard Emmanual Mudiay dished nine assists in his debut at Houston on Wednesday. There’s talent on this team. But the key for the purposes of this matchup is on the defensive side of the court There was nothing fraudulent about the Nuggets shutdown effort against the Rockets two nights ago; holding Houston to 85 points on 34.5% shooting; forcing 16 turnovers while allowing only 17 assists by one of the best offensive teams in the league. Houston didn’t get many good looks. Let’s not forget that new Nuggets head coach Mike Malone started the season with Sacramento last year and the lowly Kings won five of their first six games before DeMarcus Cousins got hurt, playing elite level defense during that early season run. Malone’s quote following Denver’s upset win on Wednesday: “"This should not come as a shock. Everybody outside of our organization can pick us last if they want, but we feel we have a chance to do something special this year and I think the way we played showed that promise." The T-wolves are coming off a huge emotional come-from-behind win on national TV against the Lakers on Wednesday, immediately following the death of former head coach Flip Saunders. Point guard Ricky Rubio, coming off the best shooting game of his career: “I think we had a little help today. It's been a tough week. It's hard to explain. Everybody went through a lot of pain.” First of all, the Lakers stink, so a come-from-behind win in LA is no great accomplishment. Secondly, the T-wolves used a ton of energy and emotion in that game, setting them up for a relatively flat effort in altitude this evening. Most importantly, Minnesota won at LA because of hot shooting against a weak defensive team. Denver isn’t a weak defensive team, and Minnesota is not going to match ( or approach) the 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio they enjoyed at the Staples Center. Denver is a ‘bet-on’ team moving forward and Minnesota is a clear ‘bet-against’ squad tonight, especially in this deflated pointspread range. Big Ticket: Take the Nuggets. |
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10-28-15 | 76ers v. Celtics -11 | Top | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Take Boston (#704) The 76ers have been tanking since 2013, but there’s no light on the horizon. Philly was the worst team in the league last year and they’re likely to be every bit as dismal this season. Throw in a barrage of preseason injury woes and this team is a mess heading into the regular season, not ready to compete. The 76ers were the NBA’s worst shooting team last year, connecting on less than 41% of their shots, and they didn’t pick up many (any?) shooters in the offseason. Their top two returning scorers, Tony Wroten and Robert Covington, are both out for the opener. Brett Brown has 12 players on his roster with two years or less of NBA experience. Four of them are rookies, making their NBA debuts. With Carl Landry out while he recovers from wrist surgery, the 76ers don’t have a single player available this evening with more than three years of NBA experience. This is NOT a team primed for a step-up game on opening night. Boston beat Brooklyn by 16 on opening night last year, while the Sixers lost by a dozen at Indiana; losing each of their first four games by a dozen or more on their way to an 0-17 start. Brad Stevens had his team ready coming out of the preseason, Brett Brown didn’t. The Celtics won all four games in the season series between these two teams by double digit margins; 4-0 ATS as well as 4-0 SU. And Boston, unlike Philly, is primed to succeed from the get-go this year. The Celtics are very deep – bad news against Philly, because the Boston reserves that will get ample playing time in a blowout are vastly superior to the 76ers bench. All the quotes coming out of Boston are positive ones, like this from former Sixer Evan Turner: “I've been around a few teams and I think our rhythm, how we're playing, and the chemistry and our intensity in practice, it shows well for the future.” Boston is deep, talented and hungry for success. Expect plenty of second half ‘garbage time’ in this one! Take the Celtics. |
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10-27-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -3 | Top | 95-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Take Chicago (#502) The Cavs were -13 at home to the Knicks on opening night last year. They lost that game in SU fashion as part of a 1-3 SU start (favored in every game). The Bulls beat those same Knicks by 24 in their opener the next night; part of a 5-1 start, the lone loss coming in OT. Chicago was ready to open the season. Cleveland wasn’t. Yes, that was last year. But the Cavs situation as they enter the 2015-16 campaign isn’t all that different from what we saw in LeBron’s return to Cleveland one year ago – a team still looking to gel after a very bumpy preseason. Kyrie Irving won’t play, Iman Shumpert won’t play. Kevin Love had a terrible preseason with limited minutes. LeBron has been sitting out with back troubles. I could go on and on, but you get my point – the Cavs on opening night aren’t going to look like they will a month or two from now; not even close. These quotes tell the story of a Cavs team that is NOT ready for primetime tonight. LeBron, after missing most of the preseason: “We’re not going to put too much on the first game of the season. You don’t put too much onus on, ‘This will be the team that we’ll be long term.’ “ Head coach David Blatt: “Obviously the parts are moving and we’re going to be a bit of a work in progress as we get going due to the guys we were missing in camp and due to the guys yet to come back….I think everyone here is cognizant of the fact we have to start anew. We can’t just pick up where we left off last season. I don’t think that’s realistic.” Chicago has a new coach in Fred Hoiberg, and all indications are that the Bulls love his new, free flowing, uptempo offense. Let’s not forget that the Bulls return 12 of the top 13 players on their roster from their playoff loss to the Cavs last Spring; a much more cohesive situation than the one on the other sideline. Playoff revenge only adds to the Bulls attributes this evening; a night where I’m not expecting the Cavs to demonstrate anything resembling mid-season form. Take the Bulls. |
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03-29-15 | Michigan State -2 v. Louisville | Top | 76-70 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket NCAA Tourney GOY: Take Michigan State (#719) Forget whatever the season long power ratings say about these two teams, because season long power ratings aren’t telling the true story for either squad in this Elite Eight matchup. If we just look at the last month – current form, per se -- Michigan State is clearly the better of these two teams, and we’re only being asked to lay a small price to support them. That makes this game truly worthy of Big Ticket status. Let me start with the anti-Louisville piece of the equation. Rick Pitino’s Cardinals were not a good team (or a good bet) down the stretch of their ACC campaign after senior starting point guard Chris Jones got kicked off the team in February. Louisville was held to 60 points or less seven times in an eight game span without him, including their opening round exit of the ACC tournament; simply not the same team that they were when Jones was a nightly contributor. Here in the NCAA Tournament, the pundits are convinced that Louisville has worked out their offensive flaws, notching relatively easy wins and covers against NC State and Northern Iowa in their last two games. First, let’s be real about this. Northern Iowa simply had a bad day; NC State simply overachieved to get here. And in both of those victories, the Cardinals simply got hot from the floor; something that’s been the exception, not the rule, for the Cardinals this year. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve only notched 29 assists in their three tourney games – lots of ‘one-on-one’ basketball from Rick Pitino’s crew these days. That might work against Cal Irvine, Northern Iowa and NC State, but it’s not likely to work against Michigan State’s stout defense. And Louisville has absolutely no depth in the post-Jones era, bad news against a Michigan State team that gets consistent contributions from their strong bench. Four Louisville starters played at least 37 minutes of floor time against Northern Iowa, even though the Cardinals led by margin for most of the game. On Friday night against NC State, Louisville only got 20 minutes of floor time from their entire bench. The only guy who scored off the bench, Anton Gill, hadn’t scored a single point in four previous March games and hadn’t scored more than two points in 12 of his previous 13 contests. Louisville is paper-thin these days, very bad news against a physical Spartans team in a game where the refs aren’t likely to swallow their whistles. Michigan State spent the first three months of the season struggling to find their rhythm. They lost at home to the likes of Illinois and Minnesota on the heels of their earlier loss in East Lansing to Texas Southern. Maryland beat them twice. Nebraska knocked them off. It was not pretty for Tom Izzo and company – until the calendar hit March. The Spartans closed out the regular season with a pair of wins, including a tough, gut-it-out win at Indiana on senior day for the Hoosiers. They went into the Big 10 tourney and played waaaay above their power rating, beating Ohio State and Maryland, then controlling Wisconsin for about the first 35 minutes of gameplan before falling short in OT. Here in the Big Dance, the Spartans have been as tough as nails, surviving a very slow start against Oklahoma, while knocking off quality squads from Virginia and Georgia. It’s a waaaay overused cliché, but the Spartans really are playing their best basketball of the year right now. Louisville has no athleticism edge, like the one they’ve enjoyed in all three previous tournament victories. There’s no toughness edge or confidence edge for the Cardinals either – it’s Michigan State who is showing the ‘refuse to lose’ ultra-confident mentality. The Spartans are the much deeper team. They have the better point guard. Michigan State generally wins the battle of the boards against just about every opponent they face; bad news for a Louisville team that has not enjoyed similar success on the glass. Sparty survived their ‘missed free throw’ debacle game against Oklahoma, hitting all six key free throws to clinch the victory after starting the game 3-10 from the charity stripe. This pointspread is tight. I’m not convinced the game will be as tight as that pointspread might indicate. Big Ticket: Take Michigan State. |
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03-26-15 | Wichita State v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
Take Notre Dame (#806) Notre Dame is too good to be an underdog in this ballgame. Questions about head coach Mike Brey’s focus following the death of his mother have been answered – he returned to South Bend immediately following the funeral and was with his team as they left South Bend for the bus ride to Cleveland for this Sweet 16 matchup. Brey’s quote: "We are a pretty confident group right now. We won three in Greensboro and two in Pittsburgh. We are playing well at the right time. You are excited to get downtown and around the atmosphere." So how is this team an underdog? Simple – Wichita State is sexy, the Fighting Irish are not. The Shockers went 5-0 ATS in the Big Dance on their way to the Final Four two years ago. Last year, they were favorites over Kentucky – think about that for a minute, because the Wildcats went all the way to the national title game – but they were bounced by Kentucky on the opening weekend. Last weekend, Wichita took a ton of sharp money and blew out Kansas, a matchup the Shockers had been trying to schedule (without success) for decades. Meanwhile, Notre Dame hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2003. The Irish went 0-2 ATS last weekend, locked in a pair of tight, down to the wire battles against Butler and Northeastern. Unlike Wichita, there’s no upwards pressure from the betting markets after that 0-fer spread mark from the Irish last weekend burned their backers. So, it’s perfectly understandable why Wichita State has attracted money off the pick ‘em or +1 opener, despite the added negative of the ‘lookahead’ factor – they’ll get an Elite Eight revenge matchup with the Kentucky team that beat them by a bucket in the Big Dance last year IF they win on Thursday. That ‘Kansas in the rear view mirror, Kentucky on deck’ factor is not a good thing, even for a deep, veteran team like Wichita. The Fighting Irish should enjoy plenty of crowd support in this friendly, close to home venue. And Notre Dame is a truly elite offensive team, ranked #2 in the country in offensive efficiency this year behind the elite level play of senior point guard Jerian Grant. Their big men are versatile, even if they’re not shot blockers, and their ball movement is exceptional. Frankly, Wichita State hasn’t seen an offense this good all season. Away from home, Notre Dame has wins over Duke, North Carolina (twice), Louisville, NC State and Purdue, and that’s just counting NCAA Tournament teams. They’ve gone 14-3 SU in hostile or neutral environments this year and 5-2 ATS as an underdog on any floor. Plain and simple – I don’t think they’re done yet! Take Notre Dame. |
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03-24-15 | Miami Heat -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 88-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#655) Strong ‘bet-on’ vs. strong ‘bet-against’ tonight sets this play up as a rock solid Big Ticket betting opportunity. Milwaukee isn’t very good right now, nor are they a particularly confident team these days. The Bucks have lost six straight and 13 of 16. All three wins during this dismal skid came against struggling foes, beating lottery bound Philly and Orlando, and knocking off the Wizards when Washington was in the midst of a very ugly post-All Star Break slump of their own. Head coach Jason Kidd: “We're a young team, we're going to make young mistakes and we have to get better." The Bucks biggest concern during this extended skid is their propensity for turnovers. New point guard Michael Carter Williams was a turnover machine in Philadelphia and he’s been every bit as turnover prone since arriving in Milwaukee at the trading deadline. MCW committed six of the Bucks 23 turnovers in an ugly home loss to Cleveland on Sunday; a complete fourth quarter meltdown. And the Bucks defense isn’t getting takeaways of their own, resulting in a truly awful 2.05 assist-to-turnover ratio allowed over their last five contests. Miami is hungry off a poor showing at Oklahoma City on Sunday, snapping their three game winning streak. They have lost all three previous meetings with the Bucks – a team they trail by 1.5 games in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Miami certainly is looking to avoid the regular season sweep from a team that they’re better than! And the #7 seed faces Cleveland in the first round; the #6 seed will likely face Toronto, Chicago or Washington; all beatable teams. There’s a huge difference between the #7 spot in the East and the #6 spot. A veteran team like the Heat know that well. But Miami’s quotes aren’t all about seeding – they’re all about a veteran, battle tested squad knowing exactly where they are and exactly what they need to accomplish over the final three weeks of the regular season. Dwayne Wade, in the midst of his best stretch of basketball in years: “You keep fighting and you give yourself an opportunity. I'm proud of the way this organization hasn't quit, and I'm proud of the way this team hasn't quit, and we're giving ourselves a chance.” More Wade: “We're trying to win every one. Seeding to me is not that important. It's not like we're saying, `OK, let's lose this one so we can get the seventh seed.' We're trying to win every game we play.” Udonis Haslem: “We ain't gonna worry about nobody. Don't know how they're [other teams] looking at it. We're going to go out there and try to play every game. We're going to let the chips fall where they may and get ready for whoever we have." Miami is the better team with the better focus; priced very cheaply this evening in a maximum intensity spot. Big Ticket: Take the Heat. |
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03-22-15 | West Virginia v. Maryland | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Take West Virginia (#727) Here’s a brief, edited excerpt from my Big Ticket write-up supporting West Virginia in their win and cover against Buffalo two days ago: “West Virginia wasn’t a healthy team at any point down the stretch of their Big 12 campaign. They were without leading scorer Juwan Staten and fellow senior guard Gary Browne for the last few weeks; a big part of their 1-3 slide to close out the regular season and conference tourney play. But with that duo healthy and expected to be at 100% today, Bob Huggins’ team is simply better than their power rating would suggest. And after all the Big 12 struggles here in the tourney, there’s no upwards pressure on this pointspread, giving us great value with the superior, battle tested team playing in a very friendly ‘close to home’ venue.” While West Virginia is an undervalued commodity right now, Maryland is not. The Terps have a true frosh at point guard in Melo Trimble. That’s particularly bad news for this matchup, given head coach Mark Turgeon’s quote: “West Virginia plays a style that we haven't seen all year. So we'll have to prep for that (in less than 48 hours). It's that time of year. You give guys some information and prepare for them for certain things and hopefully you play well." The Terps haven’t put together a ‘signature’ type victory away from home since the second week of January when they beat Purdue. They shot 47% from the floor while allowing only 37% shooting and still didn’t sniff a pointspread cover against Valpo in their opening round matchup. That’s bad news moving forward, especially against a ‘bet-on’ team like the Mountaineers are today. Take West Virginia. |
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03-19-15 | Stephen Austin v. Utah -6.5 | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#734) Stephen F Austin pulled off a first round upset in overtime against VCU last year and they are media darlings to do the same thing in 2015. It ain’t gonna happen! Utah is no second tier contender like CVCU was last year. The Utes are hungry for redemption following a disappointing closeout to the regular season, losing four of their last seven games including a pair of frustrating losses to Oregon and a tight home loss to Arizona. But let’s not forget that the Utes were a Top 10 team nationally less than a month ago. And perhaps most importantly, their two best players – both likely NBA first rounders – are matchup nightmares for the Lumberjacks on both ends of the floor. Stephen F Austin has one major disadvantage that cannot be overcome with good coaching or smart floor play. The Lumberjacks lack size. They also lack elite level talent. Their leading rebounder is 6-4 190 pound guard Thomas Walkup. Their second leading rebounder is also their tallest rotation player, 6-6 210 pound Jacob Parker. This is clearly going to be a major problem against Utah’s pair of seven footers, Jakob Poeltl (a Top 20 draft prospect) and Dallin Bachynski. Stephen F Austin won’t be able to drive into the paint against that duo, and they’ll have a hard time stopping the Utes from getting easy looks near the bucket to go along with their likely rebounding woes. Utah’s other NBA ready prospect, guard Delon Wright is a matchup problem for the Lumberjacks as well. Wright does everything for the Utes, an elite defender and top notch scorer. For a team like Stephen F Austin that lacks shot creators, Wright is poised to dominate on both ends of the floor. The Lumberjacks got blown out at Baylor and Xavier in their only two tests against Big Dance teams in non-conference play, losing those two games by 16 and 18 points. A similar margin of defeat for Stephen F Austin on Thursday night would be no surprise to this bettor! Big Ticket: Take Utah. |
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03-18-15 | Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland (#607) Here’s your Under-the Radar angle. The Miami Heat are not a ‘winning streak’ type of team by any stretch of the imagination. Nor do the Heat have a significant home court advantage this year, with a losing record both SU and ATS. When we put those two factors together, we find something significant. The Heat are now riding an 0-14 ATS run at home coming off a SU win on any floor. The Heat played their best game since the All Star Break on Monday against Cleveland at home, blowing out LeBron and the red hot Cavaliers. They shot 55% from the floor, 82% from the free throw line and won the rebounding battle by double digits, a strong all around game. For a team that has been consistently unable to string good games together, that makes the Heat a rock solid ‘bet-against’ proposition tonight. To make matters even worse for Miami, they’re facing an elite level team that had been clicking on all cylinders prior to a disappointing loss on Monday on the second night of back-2-backs. The Blazers sounded a little too confident after blowing out Toronto on Sunday. Nicolas Batum, who has been red hot since the All Star break: “That was a great game tonight, one of the best games of the year. Offense and defense, the way we played was serious, very focused on the game plan. That was a dream game almost. I would love to play like that every time." All Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge: “We're peaking at the right time. You want to peak toward the end of the season and right now we're peaking at the right time." But the Trail Blazers didn’t sound quite so happy following their sluggish showing in Washington on Monday, a game where they trailed by 25 before a second half rally fell short. All Star guard Damian Lillard: “We were in the huddle like, `All right, let's get over the hump. Let's make our push.' And it just didn't go our way from there." Coming off a loss since the All Star Break, the Blazers have beaten Houston twice and San Antonio; notching three SU and ATS wins against Western Conference elites in four tries. Facing a second tier Heat team in their very worst role is an optimal opportunity to support Portland in a prime bounce-back situation. Big Ticket: Take the Blazers. |
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03-17-15 | Central Michigan v. Louisiana Tech -6 | Top | 79-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Louisiana Tech (#546) Clear ‘bet-on’ vs. a clear ‘bet-against’ here, and this relatively short price range makes the game absolutely worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager this evening. Let me start with the ‘bet-against’ aspects for the Chippewas. To call this a ‘brutal’ travel spot for Central Michigan wouldn’t be hyperbole. On Saturday night – just about 72 hours before tip-off tonight – the Chippewas were facing Buffalo for the MAC title and a Big Dance bid. But Central Michigan lost that tight, competitive game, a deflating defeat. Then they bussed 300 miles back home to Mt Pleasant. Then they bussed right back down to Detroit for their flight to Louisiana, followed by another bus ride to Ruston. This team won’t be fresh and rested, by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I strongly suspect that they’ll be both physically and emotionally spent by tip-off. The Chippewas are a prime ‘no-show’ candidate this evening. Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, is primed to make a deep run in this tournament. The Bulldogs were bounced from the C-USA tournament in excruciating fashion themselves; the #1 seed losing to UAB in overtime after rallying from a 16 point deficit to force the extra session. The Bulldogs shot just 3-24 from three point range in that game while hitting just three free throws compared to 21 makes for the Blazers. Now this senior laden squad (three senior starters) gets a chance at redemption on their home floor where they’ve won 29 consecutive ballgames. This team won a pair of NIT games last year but came a single bucket short of earning a trip to Madison Square Garden for the Final Four in a tight loss at Florida State. They’ve tasted some tourney success and they’re looking for more! Bulldogs head coach Michael White: “We ended our home court season in the TAC perfectly. Now it is a matter of making sure we end it again. Making sure we do not incorrectly rewrite the storybook that these three seniors made. That is going to be the message to our guys, especially our newcomers. … Not having any regrets, finishing your legacy the right way.” Central Michigan doesn’t have a senior starter. They didn’t face a single team as good as Louisiana Tech this year on any floor. Four of their five road losses in MAC action came by double digit margins; unable to hang with the likes of Northern Illinois and Ball State. The Chippewas notably weak interior defense coupled with the shortened shot clock in the NIT this year gives Louisiana Tech even more opportunities to pull away. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Louisiana Tech. |
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03-16-15 | Charlotte Hornets +4.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 66-94 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Take Charlotte (#515) I like Charlotte to hang around in Utah tonight, and expect the Hornets to be ‘live’ to pull the outright upset whether Al Jefferson suits up or not. Let me start with the anti-Jazz piece of the equation. Utah has been on quite a SU roll since the All Star Break; 10-2 SU in their last dozen games. For a lottery bound squad, it’s been a heckuva run, including outright upset victories over the likes of Portland, San Antonio, Memphis and Houston; all by nine points or more. But as we clearly saw in Utah’s last game – a grind it out three point win over lowly Detroit – this team is in rarified air right now. The Jazz have won five straight, as fat-and-happy as it gets in Salt Lake City these days. They haven’t won six straight in a season since 2012. And the betting markets certainly haven’t been sleeping on Utah. The Jazz have been priced appropriately throughout, leading to a 2-4 ATS mark in their last six tries as favorites; 0-4 ATS when laying five points or more during that span. And while the Jazz are playing excellent defense these days, their offense is still very much a work in progress, held under 90 points five times in their last eight games. It’s tough to cover spreads as chalk (especially against a good defensive team like the Hornets) when you’re struggling to reach 90 on a nightly basis! Charlotte is fighting hard for one of the final two playoff spots in the East unlike so many squads that are looking to tank down the stretch instead of facing off against one of the league’s elites in a first round playoff series. After reeling off five straight wins, Charlotte had a hiccup last week, suffering back-2-back losses against the Wizards and Kings. But they rallied from 18 points down to beat Chicago on Friday Night, a real confidence builder as they start this West Coast trip. Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford, following that win over the Bulls: “"That's a terrific win. Not just because it's a win, but because of the way we played. Do we need everybody to bring it every night? Yes, we do. And for 18 games, we can do that. ... That's why I get frustrated because I see what we can be." For a team that has failed to cover the spread only ten times in thirty previous road games, I’m expecting the Hornets to once again make money for their supporters on the highway tonight. In this instance, expect the road underdog to be the hungrier, more focused squad! Take the Hornets. |
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03-15-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -1.5 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Take Toronto (#880) We’re getting a good opportunity to ‘buy low’ with the Toronto Raptors this afternoon. Toronto just went through a particularly ugly stretch of nine losses in a ten game span following their blowout win at Atlanta immediately following the All Star Break. No, the Raptors didn’t play well on either end of the court at any point during that run. But it’s surely worth noting that the Raptors were certainly ‘up against it’ schedule wise. Seven of those nine losses came on the highway; six of them coming against teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. Their only two home games during that stretch? Golden State and Cleveland, arguably the two best teams in the league. Throw in three sets of back-2-backs and no periods with more than one day between games and you can understand why things went south for Toronto so fast in recent weeks. But the Raptors had an extra day off prior to their last game, at home against a Heat team that had beaten them 16 consecutive times. Dwane Casey’s squad delivered a wire-2-wire victory, snapping their funk at home. Point guard Kyle Lowry played his best game since sitting out for three contests to get some additional rest. Casey: “He was back to the old Kyle. He was moving the ball, he made his shots and his 3s, which were huge." And the Raptors finished with 26 assists on 34 made baskets against a pretty darn good defensive team, which is a ‘buy’ sign statistic for me! And it’s surely worth noting that prior to those home losses to the Cavs and Warriors, Toronto had beaten three playoff teams - the Wizards, Clippers and Spurs -- in their previous three home games; enjoying a fairly strong home court edge. Portland is a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ off back-2-back home wins; 7-1 in their last eight games even after the loss of sharpshooter Wesley Matthews to a season ending injury. They are opening up a brutal scheduling stretch of their own, playing five games in seven days on the East Coast over the next week – head coach Terry Stotts is going to have to manage his minutes very carefully, especially with another tough test against the Wizards on tap for tomorrow night. They lost their only previous road game since Matthews went down, beaten soundly in Minnesota. I’m not convinced this game is going to go any better for the road underdog than that one did! Take Toronto. |
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03-15-15 | Connecticut v. SMU -3 | Top | 54-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Take SMU (#894) UConn has been a pretty darn good tournament team in the Kevin Ollie era. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in this tournament over the last three days, rallying from behind once again against Tulsa yesterday by closing the game on a 14-1 run. They went 8-1 SU and ATS in postseason tournament play last year, coming out of nowhere to win the national title in the process. Not a bad start for Ollie’s head coaching career, eh? And, of course, bettors still remember the Huskies remarkable run of eleven straight postseason wins in 2011, earning a Big Dance bid only by winning the Big East tourney, then rallying repeatedly to win their six NCAA Tournament games – and a national title. But all of that success has left the Huskies overvalued right now, facing an elite level SMU team with some fire in their collective bellies to win this title. SMU was probably the highest profile ‘snub’ from the NCAA Tournament selection committee last year. The Mustangs beat the Huskies in both regular season meetings last year (by nine points both home and away), but it was UConn cutting down the nets as national champs while SMU went to the NIT. Then, UConn beat the Mustangs just two weeks ago in Storrs; putting up 81 points on 53% shooting, by far the worst defensive numbers for SMU in any game all year. The Mustangs, to a man, were not amused by that loss. And they certainly remember their snub last year while UConn went on to championship glory. Guard Sterling Brown: “People could say we got snubbed (last year), but at the end of the day we lost games we should not have lost. This year we are trying to take advantage of every game. We wanted to dictate our own fate." SMU’s only loss in their last nine games came against these Huskies. Their perimeter defense tightened up yesterday after a series of mediocre showings, holding Temple to 29% shooting, including 4-24 from beyond the arc. UConn will be playing their fourth game in four days, compared to only three for SMU. That matters, considering that the Huskies best player, Ryan Boatright played the entire 40 minutes yesterday and the entire 40 minutes the day before, two tough, physical, down to the wire battles against Cinci and Tulsa. All the pressure is on the underdog, needing a win to get a Big Dance bid – a loss sends them to the NIT, where SMU was last year. And before we give UConn too much credit for yesterday’s rally against Tulsa, don’t miss this quote from Golden Hurricanes guard James Woodard: “I think we just tightened up (down the stretch).” Cheap price to lay with the better, fresher team playing with a real sense of purpose and urgency this afternoon. Take SMU |
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03-14-15 | Xavier +8 v. Villanova | Top | 52-69 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Xavier (#541) Nothing but facts and quotes for this write-up. FACT: Villanova hasn’t won a Big East Tourney title at any point during Jay Wright’s 14 year tenure with the Wildcats. In the Big Dance, ‘Nova hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2009. The Wildcats have consistently been a quality Top 25 team throughout Wright’s tenure. Their repeated lack of postseason success speaks volumes about Wright’s ability to get his team prepared in short turnaround situations, like the one they’re in tonight. FACT: Don’t be fooled by Villanova’s “blowout” win over Xavier on Senior Day for the Musketeers two weeks ago today. The game was tight for about 32 minutes, but ‘Nova nailed five straight three pointers while Xavier didn’t make a single shot in the final six and a half minutes of regulation. It’s surely worth noting that after a miserable first half in a loss at Villanova earlier in the season, the Musketeers outscored the Wildcats by five in the second half, enough to make things interesting down the stretch. So while Xavier is 0-2 SU and ATS in the two previous meetings between these two teams this year, they’ve played more competitively than the final scores would indicate in both games. QUOTE: Here’s a doozy from Xaveir’s senior point guard Dee Davis after they knocked off the #2 and #3 seeds in this tournament over the past two days: "We didn't come here to beat Georgetown (or Butler), We came here to win a Big East Championship. So that's our plan." QUOTE: This one is from Xavier head coach Chris Mack, talking about the advantage of playing Villanova in a short turnaround situation: “(They) don't run all these different actions and set plays. If we had to play Butler (Saturday) night, that might be an issue. They run a million plays. It's (Villanova's) players that get you, how hard they play. Our guys know them very, very well, having played them in this true round-robin league a lot. We'll watch a lot of tape, figure out how they really played here the first two nights. Obviously we're not going to change a whole lot." QUOTE: This one is from Georgetown head coach John Thompson III after Xavier beat them yesterday: “They're a very, very balanced team. They support and help each other at the defensive end. Whether it's their 1-3-1 (zone), their man-to-man or their 2-3 (zone), it's difficult." IF (and that’s a big ‘if’) Villanova finds a way to win this ballgame, I don’t expect it to come by any kind of margin. Live dog here, worthy of Big Ticket status! Big Ticket: Take Xavier |
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03-13-15 | Baylor +1 v. Kansas | Top | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baylor (#867). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before 2 PM Pacific Time. |
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03-12-15 | TCU +7.5 v. Kansas | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take TCU (#545) Here’s what I wrote about TCU when supporting the Horned Frogs a few weeks ago, immediately following TCU’s loss to Kansas the previous game. “TCU is oozing with confidence off their impressive showing at Kansas, rallying back from a 16 point deficit in the second half to make things interesting down the stretch in Lawrence. The Horned Frogs were aggressive throughout, taking the ball to the hole instead of settling for jump shots. Senior guard Trey Zeigler: “We felt like we were in the game. We felt like we played pretty well. We want to continue to play pretty well, finish out the season strong.”” I used TCU as a free play against Kansas State yesterday. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “The Wildcats have only one senior in their nine man rotation, in sharp contrast to TCU and their stellar senior backcourt of Kyan Anderson and Trey Zeigler. TCU ran into three very talented teams in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State at the end of the regular season, snapping their momentum after they had won three out of four in mid-February. But the Horned Frogs have an impressive statistical profile for conference tourney play, ranked in the Top 20 nationally in free throws attempted (aggressive, driving senior guards), offensive rebounds and blocked shots. Wrong team favored here.” So, TCU has the appropriate level of confidence to take on a team like Kansas. They have the requisite talented all senior backcourt, a staple of ‘upside’ conference tournament teams. And they’ll be facing a Jayhawks team that has very little to gain from an extended run in Big 12 Tournament play this year, in sharp contrast to where the Jayhawks usually are at this stage of the campaign. And with a 2 PM Thursday local time tip-off, even the Jayhawks enormous edge at the Sprint Center in Kansas City will be somewhat negated. Kansas is anything but healthy right now. Leading scorer Perry Ellis has been downgraded to ‘out’ although he could play with a knee brace, a clear indicator that head coach Bill Self is more worried about next weekend than this weekend. Cliff Alexander is likely out for the rest of the year due to eligibility issues . Brannen Greene is back from his one game suspension, but he hasn’t made a single shot in a game since February 23rd, not primed for an immediate impact upon his return. The quotes from the Kansas locker room clearly indicate that this game is not particularly important in the bigger picture for the favorite. Expect the Jayhawks to be in a tight battle throughout. Big Ticket: Take TCU |
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03-11-15 | USC +7 v. Arizona State | Top | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USC (#743) The betting markets certainly aren’t excited about USC these days, with the Trojans finishing the PAC-12 regular season with 13 losses in their last 15 games. But Arizona State isn’t very good either; a prime team to fade in this inflated pointspread range. The Sun Devils are 2-11 SU in 13 previous games away from home. Each of the Sun Devils last four SU victories came in very tight games, wins by five points or less, and they all came at home. Defensively, the Sun Devils have allowed opponents to hit more than half of their shots against them away from home, in sharp contrast to USC, who has held foes under 43% from the floor away from home. It’s surely worth noting that Arizona State lost their PAC-12 tourney opener by 21 last year and their lone victory in the PAC-12 tourney since 2010 came by a single point in overtime; not a program with a recent history of winning games by margin at this stage of the season. USC was extremely young this year, but head coach Andy Enfield has some really good athletes to work with; always a good thing come conference tourney time. And despite their miserable stretch run, the Trojans have been covering pointspreads; undervalued by the markets throughout their 6-3 ATS run in their last nine games and 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven away from home. Guard Elijah Stewart, talking about their blowout win over Washington and relatively close loss against UCLA over the final week of the regular season: “We’re a brand new team. We’ve kind of found our place now.” The Sun Devils never even sniffed a pointspread cover as double digit favorites against USC in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this year. Despite playing without leading scorer Katin Reinhart, who was suspended before tip-off, USC led by double digits with less than ten minutes remaining in Tempe, before Arizona State rallied to win by only five. A similar result today will cash our ticket, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see the Trojans in position to win this game during the latter stages of the contest. Big Ticket: Take USC. |
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12-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 107-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Milwaukee (#807) The Bucks have been a regular staple on my NBA diet this year, and for good reason. Milwaukee has been the single best pointspread team in the league through the first eight weeks of action. They’ve been at their best in this road underdog role; 12-5 ATS away from home including a perfect 4-0 spread mark on their recent West Coast trip. And the Bucks are primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight as they travel to Atlanta to face the ‘fat and happy’ Hawks. The Bucks got outplayed on Tuesday at home against Charlotte, on the wrong end of a 108+-101 final score. Following the game, the team held a 50 minute player’s only meeting in the locker room. Starting center Larry Sanders: “It was apparent that we needed to talk about some things after this game We're not happy with ourselves. A trait of teams that want to get better is that they meet. We don't like the way we played, so we're going to talk about it. We don't want to ignore issues. That's what bad teams do. We aired it out in the open and talked about it. That's what we are trying to do now." Former Hawk center Zaza Pachulia, making his return to Atlanta where he played for the last eight seasons: “We're not happy. We're just not happy with the way we played today. We talked about it. Next game we're going to be ready to give a better effort. There were no voices raised. We're family. Nobody is happy. We're trying to get better. That meeting was about getting better." Head coach Jason Kidd: “We didn't have that spark. Being a young team, this was kind of a trap game, playing well and also thinking about the holidays. It is something we can learn from." Expect the Bucks to bring their ‘A’ game tonight, and their ‘A’ game is good enough to hang tough against any team in the NBA. Atlanta is in the midst of a red hot run, notching victories in 14 of their last 15 ballgames, including tight victories over the Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers in their last three ballgames. Atlanta rallied from 13 down to beat LA just before Christmas. Shooting guard Kyle Korver following that win: “We've had a tough little stretch here and I think we've played well. We won some games on the road and obviously it was a big win here." Read between the lines and we’re looking at a ‘fat and happy’ squad laying big points against a particularly motivated foe directly following their Christmas break. I’m not expecting it to go well for the home team tonight, with the outright upset a legitimate possibility! Big Ticket: Take the Bucks. |
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12-23-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Brooklyn (#710) We’ve got a strong ‘bet-against’ spot for the Denver Nuggets and we’re catching a pointspread break because the markets aren’t adjusting appropriately for the Deron Williams injury in Brooklyn. Put those two factors together and it’s very easy to make a case for the Nets as a Big Ticket selection this evening. Let me start with the anti-Denver side of the equation, beginning with an excerpt from my write-up supporting a wager against the Nuggets in their blowout loss at Charlotte last night: “While underachieving Charlotte has a strong ‘buy’ sign on them right now, the same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets. First, it’s a bad spot for the road underdog, coming off tight wins against the Pacers and Clippers at home in their last two ballgames. Brian Shaw’s squad has lost each of their last four on the highway; covering only one spread in defeat.” “And the Nuggets have gotten very bad injury news over the past few days, losing Danilo Gallinari again just one game after a season high 19 point outburst in the win over the Pacers. Big man Darrell Arthur is doubtful tonight. Another big man, JaVale McGee, is also out. And most important of all, sparkplug point guard Ty Lawson has a bad back, a gametime decision to play this evening and likely to be at less than 100% if he does go.” Lawson’s back was clearly bothering him last night, and I don’t expect him to feel much better here on the second night of back-2-backs. And Denver’s offensive flow is severely impaired due to their recent injury barrage, a team that lacks both confidence and the ability to execute offensively at this stage of the campaign. A squad that has been hammered in each of their last five road games doesn’t appear poised for a ‘step-up, max effort’ contest here before they fly home for the holidays. Deron Williams hurts the Nets more than he helps them – there’s a reason that this ‘name’ point guard is on the trading block and Brooklyn is looking to move forward without him. Williams got hurt against the Cavs last Friday and the Nets played better with him off the floor, a wire-2-wire cover. He missed their game against the Pistons on Sunday and Brooklyn responded by snapping their three game losing streak, sparked by backup point guard Jarrett Jack’s 15 points and 10 assists. Jack, following the win: “I thought the brand of basketball we put out there tonight was very, very contagious. I just thought it was an enjoyable brand of basketball.” Meanwhile, Mason Plumlee is playing extremely well in the absence of the injured Brook Lopez, averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds over his last six games. Head coach Lionel Hollins, talking about his young center: “The light has come on.” Yet the betting markets are viewing the injuries to Lopez and D-Wil as if they warrant a significant power ratings adjustment downwards. I’m not buying that argument one iota! Big Ticket: Take the Nets. |
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12-16-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Memphis (#510) Golden State isn’t going to go 80-2 this year, and their 17 game winning streak is primed to end tonight. This is only the fourth time all season that the betting markets have installed the Warriors as underdogs. They were dogs at Portland on the first weekend of the regular season, dogs at Phoenix a week later and dogs at Dallas earlier on this road trip. Yes, Golden State won two of those three games in outright fashion, BUT we’re not talking about a team that has faced many ‘step-up-in-class’ road games thusfar this season. And this is most assuredly a ‘step-up-in-class’ road game for Steve Kerr’s squad. It’s also a game where Andrew Bogut’s absence really matters. The Warriors center has been sidelined with a bad knee, joining former All Star big man David Lee on the sidelines in street clothes. The Warriors were able to escape with an OT win at New Orleans over the weekend, rallying from eight down in the final few minutes, but they got lucky there – Pelicans big man Anthony Davis was sitting out with a chest contusion. Their win over the Rockets last week came without Dwight Howard in the lineup for Houston. Their win over the T-wolves just before that came without Nikola Pekovic. Golden State is an elite team, but their winning streak has most assuredly been aided by key front court injuries for several recent opponents. The Grizzlies don’t have any front court injuries right now. Starters Marc Gasol and Zack Randolph are both elite players who take high percentage shots from the low post, creating a very problematic matchup against a Warriors team without their best defensive big. Backups Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos have similar playing styles compared to the starters; solid scoring options in the paint. Memphis is a patient offensive team that consistently looks for high percentage shots from close to the basket and this matchup presents that opportunity. Don’t underestimate the power of this home court either. Memphis 11-1 SU at the FedEx Forum, including blowouts over the Rockets, Clippers and Mavericks in recent weeks, stepping up for their ‘statement’ games against other Western Conference contenders. After a lackluster showing against lesser foes Philly and Charlotte in their last two contests, expect a dominant effort from the prideful home favorite tonight. Big Ticket: Take the Grizzlies. |
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12-15-14 | Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
Take Orlando (#707) Very quietly, waaaay underneath the national radar, the Orlando Magic are playing some pretty good basketball these days. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up supporting Jacque Vaughn’s squad when they went to Golden State and lost by just a single point in a wire-2-wire spread cover with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: The Magic have been pointspread machines in this ‘road underdog’ role, cashing one winning bet after the next. They lost by eight at Chicago, eight at Brooklyn, four at Toronto and five at Washington; covering the spread in defeat in all those games. And a Magic team that went 4-37 SU on the highway last year has already won SEVEN times in SU fashion on the road this year, and it’s not even Christmas yet. Orlando center Nikola Vucevic, following their SU road win in Phoenix: "This win was huge, especially because this is a tough road trip for us and we're playing some really good teams in the next couple of games. This is good for our confidence, especially with the way that we played. ... Now we know exactly how we have to play to win games." The Magic are now 12-2 ATS in their last 14 tries in this ‘road underdog’ role. They are healthy, with Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo and Kyle O’Quinn all back in the lineup after missing team earlier, significantly improving their bench. This team isn’t flashy, they’re never on national TV (never EVER) and they have no All Stars. Small market squads that play defense like Orlando does tend to hold their value for a long, long time. Toronto is coming off a tough OT win against the Knicks yesterday, and without DeMar DeRozan in the lineup, the Raptors depth is somewhat limited. The Raptors needed a furious fourth quarter rally to escape with a four point win when these two teams met on this floor last month. On the second night of back-2-backs, I’m not expecting this matchup to be any easier for the home favorite! Take the Magic. |
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12-13-14 | Detroit Pistons +6 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Detroit (#515) Jodie Meeks is not the type of player that has any impact on a pointspread. The fifth year guard out of Kentucky was a non-factor with Philly and Milwaukee in his first few years in the league. But last year in LA, Meeks took advantage of his starting role and ample playing time to develop into a significant contributor on both ends of the floor, not just a three point specialist. First year Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy targeted Meeks as an asset to acquire in free agency this past offseason. But Meeks hurt his back and wasn’t able to suit up until last night. He had an immediate impact; an absolute difference maker as Detroit snapped a 13 game skid as 9.5 point underdogs in Phoenix last night. Van Gundy: “He's not just a shooter. That's one of the things when we signed him, people saw him as just a 3-point shooter. But he's a guy who can play on the move and make plays off the dribble. He certainly adds something and you can see we're going to have more options offensively with him." For a struggling offensive team like Detroit, Meeks is going to make a big difference. But the betting markets aren’t likely to notice his impact, offering legitimate value on Detroit moving forward. Sacramento’s hot start is a long way in the rear view mirror now; just 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine ballgames. Without DeMarcus Cousins (sitting with a viral infection) in the lineup, the Kings have struggled to defend the low post, and their offense has become overly reliant on jump shots from Darren Collison, Ben McLemore and Rudy Gay for point production. That’s a bad recipe for covering this spread as a big favorite. The Pistons swept the Kings in both meetings last year. Detroit has been a lottery bound team for years, but they’ve won on this floor in 2013, 2012 and 2011; 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. The Pistons won’t be gassed off last night’s win in Phoenix – only Josh Smith played more than 30 minutes in that contest. And we’ve seen Detroit consistently battle hard in these ‘winnable’ road games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven road tilts in regulation. No surprise here if the Pistons pull the outright upset, just like they did last night! Big Ticket: Take Detroit. |
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12-04-14 | New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 85-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Take New Orleans (#505) Golden State is white hot in the betting markets right now, resulting in inflated pointspreads like this one. The Warriors have the best record in the NBA, suffering only two SU losses all season. They also rank among the elite pointspread teams, ranked #3 in the league ATS thusfar. All the advanced metric stats show the Warriors as truly elite, ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and #7 in offensive efficiency. I don’t discount any of those stats. But the markets have adjusted to those numbers. At this price point, Golden State is absolutely fade material against New Orleans tonight. We saw Golden State play lethargic basketball for extended stretches against lowly Orlando in this same home favorites role on Tuesday Night, needing a late three pointer from Steph Curry to win a game where they were favored by 14.5 points at tip-off. My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Steve Kerr’s squad in that game, and I expect we’ll do the same tonight! Coming off a long successful East Coast trip, with another road trip to Chicago and Minnesota coming up after tonight’s game, this is most assuredly not a ‘maximum intensity’ spot for the home favorite. New Orleans matches up well with Golden State. Anthony Davis is the clear MVP through the first month of the season, capable of banging in the low post with Andrew Bogut and Marresse Speights. Ryan Anderson has been unstoppable as a stretch four, a tough matchup for Draymond Green. Tyreke Evans has enjoyed more than his fair share of big games against Klay Thompson in the past and Jrue Holiday has the foot speed to stay in front of Steph Curry. New Orleans is aggressive, getting to the basket and the free throw line, and their bench play has been getting better. The only time all year that the Pelicans have been in this pointspread range (+7 or higher) was at San Antonio, a game they won in outright fashion……Take the Pelicans. |
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12-02-14 | Ohio State v. Louisville -8 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Take Louisville (#550) Ohio State’s statistical profile in early season play is truly impressive. The Buckeyes have averaged 87 points per game on 57% shooting, including 42% shooting from three point range. They’ve averaged more than 19 assists per game while forcing more than 18 turnovers. It’s no surprise, given those impressive numbers, that Ohio State has won each of their first five games. It is a surprise, however, that Thad Matta’s rebuilding squad has managed to cover only a single pointspread despite putting up those impressive stats. Ohio State’s early season ATS failures tell us clearly that they are an overvalued commodity as they face their first true tough road test of the year after losing their starting backcourt and key frontcourt contributor LaQuinton Ross to the pro ranks in the offseason. Because there’s no way Ohio State is going to put up offensive numbers comparable to what they’ve been putting up thusfar against Louisville’s long, athletic defenders. And the price is right to support Rick Pitino’s team as they step up in class, because Louisville has been sloppy offensively thusfar, coming off a game against Cleveland State in which they were held to 45 points on 15-47 shooting. Louisville’s quotes scream ‘buy, now’. Forward Montrezl Harrell, talking about taking this game seriously after a handful of sluggish showings: “We know Ohio State is on our level and they're going to come in here ready to play on this stage and upset us at home. We can't let that happen.” Rick Pitino has seen his squad commit more turnovers than assists this year, while hitting a woeful 24% from three point range thusfar. “I'm struggling gauging this team because, statistically, I don't like what I'm seeing. But I don't worry because of their attitude. They play their asses off. These guys lace 'em up and they give you 100 percent every day." But this is the quote that really stands out from Louisville, from senior point guard Chris Jones. "I'm not going to knock any other team we've played, but I think we'll be tuned into (tonight’s) game like we were tuned into Minnesota ( a 13 point win in Puerto Rico to open the season). These guys can beat us. They're ranked just like we're ranked, so we'll be more tuned into this game more than any other game so far this year.” Take Louisville. |
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11-29-14 | Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Indiana +9.5 (#505) The betting markets have Indiana power rated incorrectly right now, plain and simple. Indiana looked like a bottom feeder for the first few weeks of the season, starting 1-6 with the lone win coming against hapless Philadelphia. But since that time, Indiana has found their mojo, reeling off six wins in nine tries, including outright upsets as road underdogs at Dallas (+14), Miami (+8.5) and Chicago (+9), as well as a tight, spread covering six point loss at the defending champs in San Antonio. In fact, Indiana is 100% perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog this year, an under-the-radar angle worth riding again here! Frank Vogel didn’t give anybody on his team more than 30 minutes of playing time in last night’s blowout win over Orlando. They’ve been steadily getting healthier, with David West and CJ Watson getting back on the floor in that win, on the heels of CJ Miles return to the lineup last week. All the playing time that the likes of Rodney Stuckey, Donald Sloan, LaVoy Allen and Chris Copeland got during the injury barrage has the Pacers looking like one of the deeper teams in the league right now. Most importantly for the purposes of this matchup, Indiana plays defense and rebounds. Cleveland does neither with any consistency, still very much a ‘work in progress’ at both ends of the floor. The Cavs are a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ coming off two blowout wins and a little break over Thanksgiving . And Cleveland has only covered one pointspread all year in this spread range; a team that has consistently struggled as chalk (5-8 ATS); notching only three wins by more than nine points all year. Expect a down-to-the-wire battle, not a rout! Big Ticket: Take the Pacers. |
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11-26-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks +3.5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#712) My clients and I cashed a ‘wire-2-wire’ Big Ticket winner supporting the Hawks last night as road underdogs at Washington. Atlanta remains a dramatically undervalued commodity as they return home tonight to take on the Raptors. And, much like the Wizards last night, there’s plenty of anti- Toronto sentiment in this play, enough to put this selection clearly into Big Ticket territory once again! Here’s a brief excerpt from my Hawks write-up last night. “Following back-2-back ugly losses to the Cavs (ugly blowout) and Lakers (SU loss as nine point home favorites), we saw Atlanta bounce back strong with a double digit win over Detroit on Friday Night; a game where they won the rebounding battle and played shutdown defense from start to finish. All Star forward Paul Millsap, talking about the team’s mentality right now: “We just have to bring it. Simple as that. From the first quarter to the fourth quarter. We have to come out with a bunch of energy." Nobody on Atlanta played major minutes last night, and they got a nice boost off their bench, with Shelvin Mack and Mike Scott lighting up the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. We’ve seen Atlanta win on the second night of back-2-backs before, even off a double OT loss at Charlotte the night before. The healthy Hawks are an undervalued commodity right now, plain and simple! Toronto is anything but an undervalued commodity following their red hot 12-2 start, and this is anything but a good ‘spot’ for the road favorites. Toronto has been feasting on a home friendly schedule, playing only four road games this season, two of which came against lottery bound Orlando and Boston. They lost at Miami and their ‘signature’ road win came against the Cavs when Cleveland was at their low point; not a truly battle tested team on the highway just yet. The Raptors are fat and happy off that Cleveland win and a tight win over Phoenix in their last game (failing to cover the spread, another indication that the markets have Toronto priced too high these days), winners of five straight. They return home to face Dallas on Friday, another marquee matchup on their home floor. I’m not expecting Toronto’s ‘A’ game here. The 3.5 point spread is a nice cushion for the Hawks in a game that I expect them to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take Atlanta. |
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11-25-14 | Atlanta Hawks +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#501) Three key factors are in play here. First, Nene matters, especially against a strong interior team like Atlanta. Washington’s low post behemoth is sidelined with plantar fasciitis. The only game he missed this year was a double digit loss against the Heat; a game where the Wizards were outrebounded by eight. With him in the lineup, the Wizards are a Top 10 team in rebounding margin. Without him, I expect them to struggle on the boards tonight. It’s surely worth noting that the Wizards went 0-6 SU without him in the lineup in their first six tries last year. Secondly, this is a horrible spot for the home favorite. The Wizards are coming off two impressive games, beating up on LeBron James and the Cavs, followed by a come-from behind win against the Bucks. Point guard John Wall following the Milwaukee victory: “In the past, we would have folded and lost by 30. But we dug deep and played hard…..This is a big statement for our team." Up next? A rematch with Cleveland tomorrow! Coming off a pair of ‘max effort’ contests with another one on tap for the second night of back-2-backs tomorrow, it’s a clear flat spot for the Wizards. Third, the Hawks are coming to play. Following back-2-back ugly losses to the Cavs (ugly blowout) and Lakers (SU loss as nine point home favorites), we saw Atlanta bounce back strong with a double digit win over Detroit on Friday Night; a game where they won the rebounding battle and played shutdown defense from start to finish. All Star forward Paul Millsap, talking about the team’s mentality right now: “We just have to bring it. Simple as that. From the first quarter to the fourth quarter. We have to come out with a bunch of energy. We know we're going to be on the road. It's going to be us against the world." With three days to prepare, Atlanta is primed for a strong showing tonight. With the exception of that Cavs game where Cleveland hit their first eleven three pointers, Atlanta has been fiercely competitive on the highway all year. They beat the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, lost by only two at San Antonio and took the Hornets to triple overtime before losing by a bucket. The 4.5 point spread is a nice cushion for the Hawks in a game that I expect them to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take Atlanta. |
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11-18-14 | Kentucky v. Kansas +6.5 | Top | 72-40 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Take Kansas (#742) I understand the Kentucky hype, and I don’t disagree that the Wildcats deserve to be the #1 team in the country at the start of the season. There’s no anti-Kentucky sentiment in this write-up, except for the fact that they are overpriced in this ballgame; a game that has all the makings of a ‘down to the final possession’ type of contest on a neutral floor in Indy (expect plenty of crowd support for the Jayhawks here Bill Self’s squad was in this same position last year, facing off as 5.5 point underdogs against Duke in their second game of the season. They won the game by double digits. Two years ago, it was a three point loss to Michigan State in their second game of the season, a down-to-the-wire barnburner. And frankly, I expect Kansas to stand toe-to-toe with Kentucky tonight. While they can’t match Kentucky’s depth, the Jayhawks starting unit defines the concept of ‘college basketball elites’; a team that has no business in this price range on a neutral floor against a ‘too much hype’ type of opponent. Take Kansas. |
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11-17-14 | Orlando Magic +4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 107-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Take Orlando (#505) Orlando is clearly getting better. They’ve got a healthy Victor Olidapo manning the point guard position, putting rookie Elfred Payton back where he should be – coming off the bench. Even Fournier is developing into a consistent perimeter scorer, coming close to matching Aaron Afflalo’s production from last year. Nikole Vucevic is an above average center. Willie Green and/or Ben Gordon have the potential to get hot off the bench in any given game. Orlando spent much of last season and the first few weeks of this season ranked #29 in my power ratings, ahead of only Philadelphia, but they’re moving up on that list. They’ve already won twice in SU fashion on the road, and my numbers show them 6-0 ATS in this road dog role, an emerging trend worth riding here. While the Magic are 6-0 as a road dog, the Pistons are 0-fer the season as home favorites, failing in all four previous tries. This can’t be a surprise – they have no idea how to close out a basketball game, without a go-to scorer or a lockdown defender to rely on. Head coach Stan Van Gundy certainly sees it: “It’s different things every night. It's a consistency issue. Obviously offense has been a major struggle…. We have to keep fighting and find some more offensive answers.” Detroit hasn’t won a single game by more than three points in regulation yet……Take the Magic. |
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11-17-14 | Oakland +5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 77-89 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Take Oakland U (#523) Both teams lost huge pieces of their equation from last year, but the losses hurt the home favorite far more than the road underdog. Yes, Oakland’s Travis Bader shot the lights out from three point range (and everywhere else) last year, but the supporting cast he left behind is loaded with shooters, capable of trading points with anybody. But the Eagles lost Syracuse transfer DaShonte Riley, Arkansas stransfer Glenn Bryant and Wyoming transfer Daylen Harrison; a trio that led the team to a 13 win improvement overhead coach Rob Murphy’s first three years on the job. Without that trio, they’ll be hard pressed to match last year’s elite defensive numbers, a ‘Jim Boeheim style defense that carried the team while their offense often sputtered. These teams have met in each of the last two years and both games were decided by two points, once in overtime. I’m expecting another down-to-the-wire finish in this one. Take Oakland. |
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11-12-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Phoenix Suns -5.5 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Take Phoenix (#716). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before 10 AM Pacific Time. |
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11-11-14 | Sacramento Kings +6.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Take Sacramento (#507) The surprising Sacramento Kings had a reality check on Sunday when their five game winning streak was snapped in a sluggish showing at Oklahoma City. All the postgame quotes pointed towards an inspired effort in Dallas tonight, looking to snap a losing skid on this floor that dates all the way back to the Vlade Divac/Chris Webber era from more than a decade ago. Head coach Michael Malone: “I don’t think we had the right mindset to start the game. Their game plan was to beat us up, be physical, and every game takes on its own personality. I don’t think we responded well to that. We were more concerned about the officials than trying to play the game.” The Kings entered that contest averaging a league high 39.8 free throw attempts per game, but got to the charity stripe only 22 times against the Thunder. Point guard Darren Collison: “We’ve got to understand we’re not that good to just try to ease our way into the game and come back. We’ve got good players, but as far as a team, we haven’t accomplished anything. We really don’t have any excuse to start the game slow….. We have to come out with a mindset that we’re going to get everybody’s best shot.” Shooting guard Rudy Gay: “We dug ourselves a hole, and it came to a point where we expected calls and things to get us out of it, and it didn’t go our way. We can’t start like that. It’s a good learning experience for us. No matter who we’re playing, we can’t come out and play like that.” But this Malone quote really stands out to me, confirming several positive reports on the positive chemistry in that Sacramento locker room. “We have a very unique group. A lot of new guys, but we’ve come together fairly quickly. And winning is the best cohesive substance in the world. It brings guys together pretty quickly….There’s something about this group. We have a lot of trust, a lot of camaraderie, a lot of chemistry early in the season.” I’m not getting those same vibes from Dallas right now, losers of two of their last three and struggling mightily on the defensive end of the court. The Kings currently rank #8 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Dallas ranks #26. Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle: “I'm concerned about how we're competing as a team. We just have a problem right now from top to bottom with consistency.” Sacramento battled Dallas to the wire in all three losses to the Mavs last year, losing by 2, 3 and 4 points while pulling an outright upset in the fourth meeting against them, a perfect 4-0 ATS in those contests. I expect another hungry, focused effort from this feisty road underdog tonight. Take the Kings. |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 104 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Wisconsin (#816)
Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting a Big Ticket play on Wisconsin in their upset win over #1 seed Arizona to reach the Final Four last weekend. The numbers have been altered slightly to reflect current realities: “Wisconsin went 16-0 to open the season, including wins over #1 seeds Florida and Virginia; ranked in the Top 5 for more than a month. There was nothing fraudulent about that start. It was obvious, from the get-go that this was Bo Ryan's best team in his 13 year tenure in Madison. “But the Badgers got bogged down in the ultra-competitive, defensive minded Big 10, and had a nasty little mid-season slide: five losses in six games, all as favorites. They tumbled out of the national rankings, but their lofty power rating didn't take much of a hit. In fact, this is only the sixth time all year that Wisconsin has been an underdog. They've won four of their five previous tries as underdogs in outright fashion.” The Badgers were a severely undervalued commodity last weekend and I’m not convinced that changes here, even against a Kentucky team that is loaded with NBA caliber talent and much bigger than the Badgers in the paint. Wisconsin has been facing (and beating) elite defenses all year. With Ben Brust, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Frank Kaminsky all capable of hitting from three point range as well as driving to the basket, the Badgers offense is very tough to stop! Kentucky’s run of late game success is very good for their confidence, but it’s not any sort of a difference maker when it comes to predicting similar success in the future. And I’m more included to support a team that hasn’t played their best game yet against a team that has. Kentucky will be hard pressed to play any better than they have over the past two weeks, and their offense has been extraordinarily reliant on getting easy putbacks off offensive rebounds. I’m not sure that’s going to work against Bo Ryan’s crew, especially with injured center Willie Cauley-Stein unlikely to be able to suit up. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is here despite getting subpar efforts from every starter not named Frank Kaminsky in their upset over Arizona. They’re the only team standing with wins over three No. 1 seeds this year and the Big 10 was as tough as any conference in college hoops this year – Bo Ryan’s squad is certainly battle tested. I’ll ride the Badgers one more time on Saturday Night without reservation; worthy of Big Ticket status as underdogs in a game I expect them to win! Big Ticket: Take Wisconsin. |
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03-31-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Clippers (#745)
My clients and I bet against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their 15 point loss to the Nets yesterday. Now on the second night of back-2-backs, potentially playing without Kevin Love tonight, Minnesota remains a dead nuts ‘bet against’ squad as they face another ‘step-up-in-class’ game against the Clippers. Frankly, I don’t care if Blake Griffin (questionable, back injury) suits up or not for LA. If he doesn’t play, this line will drop significantly. If he does play, the Clippers All Star forward can only help. Either way, Minnesota is a ‘dead’ team worth fading. Here’s an excerpt from my anti-Minnesota write-up yesterday. “The betting markets are viewing the Timberwolves as a ‘live’ team after they notched back-2-back blowout wins over the slumping Hawks and hapless Lakers. But these quotes from the Timberwolves locker room from earlier in the week still stand out, when Minnesota blew a fourth quarter lead against the Suns, then got blasted by the Grizzlies; two teams directly ahead of them in the playoff race. Chase Budinger’s quote speaks volumes: “We just have to be competitive. That’s the biggest key right now – get through the end of the season and play each game competitively. That’s how you have to look at it.” Head coach Rick Adelman (not likely to be back next year) has been talking about evaluating his young talent, not winning games: “That has been the most frustrating thing, trying to get some consistency night in and night out, especially off the bench, guys who are going to give it to you every night. But you still have a chance to evaluate, still have a chance to find out…. The evaluation is going to come from all of us and looking at this team at the end of the year.” The second night of back-2-backs is not the time to expect strong late season efforts out of lottery bound teams. Minnesota’s best player, Kevin Love, contributed only two points and three rebounds after halftime yesterday. His postgame quote doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for a dramatically improved showing tonight: “They did a good job but it was really just me being exhausted. I couldn’t find any energy in the second half. That was really it. They did a good job, but I don’t know… I might be getting sick or something. I just had zero energy in the second half. I got nothing.” Some reports indicate that Love could sit tonight. In the three previous games that Love has missed this year, Minnesota is 0-3 SU, losing by seven or more each time. Minnesota has lost all three previous meetings with the Clippers this year, now 0-8 SU in their last eight games against LA. They’ve lost at home to Toronto, Phoenix, Portland, Houston and the New York Knicks in recent weeks – every playoff contender they’ve faced has beaten them on this floor except the slumping #8 seed in the East, Atlanta. The Clippers have won 15 of 17; peaking at the right time. They’ve been remarkably adept at closing out road trips with SU and ATS wins; 4-0 SU and ATS on the final night of 3+ game road trips this year. LA is 16-9 ATS as short favorites of less than seven points – this is their role. Minnesota is 8-14 ATS as short underdogs of seven points or less – this is not their role. Fade the dead T-wolves tonight in a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the LA Clippers. |
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03-30-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Brooklyn Nets -3.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
Take Brooklyn (#708)
The betting markets are viewing the Timberwolves as a ‘live’ team after they’ve notched back-2-back blowout wins over the slumping Hawks and hapless Lakers. Money has poured in on the T-wolves this morning despite the fact that Minnesota is on the verge of being eliminated from the playoff race; trailing #8 seed Memphis by 6.5 games with only 11 games remaining for both squads. But these quotes from the Timberwolves locker room from earlier in the week still stand out, when Minnesota blew a fourth quarter lead against the Suns, then got blasted by the Grizzlies; two teams directly ahead of them in the playoff race. Chase Budinger’s quote speaks volumes: “We just have to be competitive. That’s the biggest key right now – get through the end of the season and play each game competitively. That’s how you have to look at it.” Head coach Rick Adelman (not likely to be back next year) has been talking about evaluating his young talent, not winning games: “That has been the most frustrating thing, trying to get some consistency night in and night out, especially off the bench, guys who are going to give it to you every night. But you still have a chance to evaluate, still have a chance to find out…. The evaluation is going to come from all of us and looking at this team at the end of the year.” And Minnesota is coming off a game they aren’t likely to repeat any time soon. They hung 143 points on the defense-less Lakers, hitting 67 percent from the floor (including a ridiculous 43-58 from two point range) and 33-40 from the free throw line. Shooting nights like that don’t happen very often, and the T-wolves are going from facing one of the league’s weakest defenses to facing one of the best! The Nets lost by 30 at Minnesota earlier this year, when Brooklyn was off to their injury riddled 5-14 start to the season. But this is a very different team here in late March than they were in November and December, particularly at home. The Nets are 19-2 SU in their last 21 on this floor, 10-1 ATS in their last eleven home games and an Eastern Conference best 28-12 SU since the calendar turned to 2014. They haven’t allowed any opponent to reach 100 points at the Barclays Center in their last eleven home games, holding foes to 91 points on 43 percent shooting during that span. Paul Pierce: “It sure beats us getting booed earlier in the year. So we're playing well here. We feel comfortable on our home turf." I couldn’t agree more! Take Brooklyn. |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky -2 v. Michigan | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
Take Kentucky (#719)
If you take out the last four minutes of these teams Sweet 16 games, Michigan would have beaten Tennessee by double digits while Louisville would have sent the Wildcats home. But those last four minutes matter! And they |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin +3 v. Arizona | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Wisconsin (#515)
Wisconsin went 16-0 to open the season, including wins over Florida and Virginia; ranked in the Top 5 for more than a month. There was nothing fraudulent about that start |
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03-28-14 | Connecticut +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take UConn (#875)
To say that Iowa State is lucky to be here is something of an understatement. The Cyclones have already lost their most versatile offensive player and key low post rebounder Georges Niang for the rest of the tournament, a huge loss for a team without much quality size on their bench. And frankly, Iowa State had no business getting past North Carolina in their Round of 32 matchup. The Cyclones were down by eight with four minutes on the clock when Tar Heels point guard Marcus Paige took an ill-advised three pointer with 27 seconds remaining on the shot clock. North Carolina had been dominating in the paint, but Paige |
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -1 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Take the LA Clippers (#807)
The Clippers have played lethargic basketball in each of their last four ballgames. They were able to eke out tighter than expected wins against the lowly Pistons and Bucks, but lost outright as favorites against the Nuggets and Pelicans; now riding an 0-4 ATS run into Thursday. To a man, the Clippers were not amused by last night |
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03-27-14 | Dayton +3.5 v. Stanford | Top | 82-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Take Dayton (#811)
Dayton has three legitimate edges over Stanford tonight, making this a classic |
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