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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-10-19 | Liberty +7 v. Lipscomb | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards. The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points. 10* play |
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03-08-19 | St. Joe's +12.5 v. VCU | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair. The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-07-19 | Cincinnati v. UCF -2 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge. 10* play |
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03-06-19 | St Bonaventure +6 v. Davidson | Top | 46-64 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war. 10* play |
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03-04-19 | Virginia v. Syracuse +7 | Top | 79-53 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions. The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island +8 v. Dayton | Top | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-28-19 | Xavier +6 v. St. John's | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire. 10* play |
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02-27-19 | Marquette v. Villanova -5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-26-19 | Syracuse +12 v. North Carolina | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-25-19 | Oklahoma +9 v. Iowa State | Top | 61-78 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State. The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-23-19 | South Florida +13.5 v. Houston | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Davidson -2 v. Rhode Island | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-21-19 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Tennessee State -6.5 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-20-19 | Louisville v. Syracuse -1 | Top | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange. 10* play |
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02-19-19 | Florida State +1 v. Clemson | Top | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-17-19 | George Mason v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies. 10* play |
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02-16-19 | Oklahoma v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 71-62 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma enters off a 59-53 road loss to Baylor and I think it’s primed for another letdown here. TCU comes in focused after a tough 82-77 OT loss at home to No. 14 Kansas in its latest action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Horned Frogs, as the Sooners have won three straight in this series, including a 76-74 victory in the first matchup at home back in mid January. There’s no question that from a “situational” stand point, that this one sets up beautifully for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home overall, while Oklahoma is just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it. 10* play |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo v. Toledo +2.5 | Top | 88-82 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are red hot, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Buffalo enters at 21-3 and on two straight victories, while Toledo is 20-4 and in the midst of a five-game win skein. This however is a “revenge” game for Toledo after it was smoked 110-80 at Buffalo back on January 8th. The Rockets have played exceptionally since that setback and with a chance to avenge that pathetic effort, I do indeed expect the home side to step up and answer the call. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toledo is 7-2 ATS In its last nine at home, while Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-14-19 | Murray State v. Austin Peay | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Murray State comes in with plenty of momentum having won three straight, nost recently dispatching the SIU Edwardsville Cougars 86-55 on Saturday. Overall Murray State shot 52.9 percent from the floor and it also won the rebounding battle by 18-11. Ja Morant led the way in the win with 20 points, five boards, six assists, a block and a steal. Overall Murray State averages 82.7 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Austin Peay has won four straight, most recently holding on for a 94-86 victory over Eastern Illinois on Saturday. The Governors average 82.7 PPG, and they allow 71.3. The pick: Take it for what will though, but Murray State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning home records and I think the high-scoring Racers will improve on that trend and take advantage of an Austin Peay defense which ranks 181st in the country. Play on the visitors. 10* Play |
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02-12-19 | Purdue v. Maryland +2.5 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Purdue comes to town at 10-2 and in second place in the Conference. Maryland isn’t far behind though at 9-4 and it’ll be out for a little revenge here after it fell in a narrow 62-60 defeat to the Boilermakers in early December. Would anyone fault Purdue having a letdown here after eight straight victories, including one of the “rocking chair” variety in last Saturday’s 81-62 home win over Nebraska? Purdue averages 78.8 PPG and it allows 68.4. The Terps beat Nebraska 60-45 in their most recent action. The Terps lead the league in rebounding margin at +10.4, and they easily out rebounded the Huskers 53-38. From a situational stand point, i think this one definitely sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog or pick, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS this season in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* play |
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02-11-19 | Kansas v. TCU -2.5 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jayhawks may have beaten lowly Oklahoma State last time out, but Kansas has still lost four of seven, thanks in large part to a heavily depleted roster. The Jayhawks started four freshman for just the second time in head coach Bill Self’s 16 year tenure in the win over the Cowboys and I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here, facing a Horned Frogs squad coming off one of its biggest victories in over ten years. TCU comes in off two straight victories, including a 92-83 win at Iowa State last time out, a victory over a ranked team on the road for the first time in 21 years! The pick: Clearly the momentum is in favor of the surging Frogs, but I’ll point out as well that they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a victory, while Kansas is still 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, play on TCU. 10* play |
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02-10-19 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame -5.5 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have struggled this year. Both teams comes in on losing streaks. The Yellow Jackets are the better defensive club, but not by much. Georgia Tech’s defense though looked pretty average in its 65-42 loss to Clemson last time out. Notre Dame beat Boston College, but then it lost at Miami, managing just 47 points in the setback. The Hurricanes aren’t the best defensively this year, but playing in their own building is never an easy task. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Irish though in my opinion. The pick: As note that ND is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to six points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two consecutive road games as an underdog, while GT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range. Lay the point, expect a blowout. 10* play |
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02-09-19 | Louisville v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Cardinals look poised for a letdown after their very satisfying 72-64 road win over Virginia Tech. The Seminoles return him off a road victory over Syracuse. FSU won’t be taking anything for granted here after Louisville took two of three in the season series last year. The Cards average 78.8 PPG and they allow 68. The Seminoles though are 10-1 on their home floor and they average 77 points and allow 68.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Louisville is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a road win vs. a conference rival, while FSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-07-19 | Iowa v. Indiana -1.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana enters off a big upset win over Michigan State over the weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Iowa also comes in off a big win, downing No. 5 ranked Michigan. I believe though that the Hawkeyes will come in complacent here in this difficult road venues. The Hoosiers don’t have that luxury though, as they lost their first seven league games this year. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up perfectly for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with five or six days rest and only 10-14 ATS in its last 24 following a home win by ten points or more, while Indiana is 23-14 ATS in its last 37 as a home favorite and 3-1 ATS already this season after a victory by six points or less. Lay the points, expect a rout! 10* play |
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02-05-19 | Bowling Green -6 v. Western Michigan | Top | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Bowling Green dismantled WMU 79-48 at the Stroh Center back on January 19th and I think a similar final combined outcome is in the cards tonight as well. Bowling Green is rolling, going 11-1 in its last 12, it enters off its biggest win in a decade, pulling away for a victory over then No. 18 Buffalo last Friday. The Falcons know they can’t come in complacent here against a WMU team which is 0-8 in league play: “We don’t want to get to that place where we’re complacent and we think [winning] is just going to happen,” BG head coach Michael Huger noted. “You can’t play up or down to the opponent–you’ve got to play the same way every single time. It’s easier said than done. I can say it, but now we’ve got to go out and do it, and that’s the hard part.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 at home, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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02-02-19 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -1.5 | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 15-5 and the Ole Miss Rebels are 14-6. I can’t understate how important I think that the home floor advantage will be in this particular matchup. The Rebels upset Mississippi State 81-77 on the road on January 12th and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards on their home floor. The Rebels are 4-3 in league play and the Bulldogs are 3-4. Mississippi State comes in off a deflating 83-79 road defeat to Alabama and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up the same energy in this difficult arena. The Bulldogs have regressed defensively as well since the start of conference play. Overall they’re allowing 96.6 points per 100 possessions, but since the start of league action that’s ballooned to 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Ole Miss has lost three straight and it comes in off a tough 90-86 road loss to Florida, but as stated off the top, I think a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just just 3-5 ATS in its last eight revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Ole Miss is already 10-1 ATS this season as a favorite. Lay the short points. 10* play |
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01-30-19 | UCLA -4.5 v. Washington State | Top | 87-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA rolled to a 90-69 win over Arizona at home in its latest action and I look for it to carry that momentum over here as well. Washington State on the other hand enters off a poor 78-58 loss on the road to Oregon and I think it’ll have a hard time containing the up-tempo Bruins. UCLA won’t be taking anything for granted here either as the win over the Wildcats would in fact snap a three-game slide. The Bruins aerate 78.3 PPG, while allowing 75.3. WSU has lost three straight and nine of its last ten. The Cougars average 77.4 PPG and they allow 77.9. The pick: Note that UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a SU/ATS win at home in which it scored 90 or more points in, while WSU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning SU records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* play |
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01-29-19 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly it’s not out of the question. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Both teams come in off wins. Toledo averages 80.6 PPG and it allows 69.2. Miami Ohio averages 73.4 PPG and it allows 70.2. The pick: From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Toledo is a poor 2-4 ATS on the road already this year, while Miami Ohio is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a home dog or pick. Grab the points. 10* MAC-ATTACK Miami Ohio. |
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01-26-19 | Iowa State v. Ole Miss | Top | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State comes in hungry after its 80-76 setback at Kansas. Mississippi comes in off a loss as well, getting smoked 74-53 by Alabama. Previous to their latest loss though the Cyclones had won two in a row. Iowa State averages 78.5 PPG and it allows just 65.1. The Runnin Rebels are no slouches either, averaging 77.9 PPG and allowing 68.4. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game, while Mississippi is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of thre points or less or pick. The Cyclones have been playing more consistently of late and I believe that translates into a “W” here. 10* play |
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01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, an outright upset wouldn’t be a complete shock. I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, but I think this one will come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. After seven straight wins, complacency sets in for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE revenge game for the Bears as well! Brown had won six in a row before a loss to Yale last weekend. Suffice it to say, revenge is a dish best served cold. The pick: Yale won that game 70-67 and I expect another very competitive battle here as well. Additionally note that Brown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Yale is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game. Grab the points. 10* Brown |
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01-24-19 | Belmont v. Murray State -4.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Belmont is 13-4 after beating Tennessee State 92-74 this past weekend. Overall Belmont is averaging 86.3 PPG, while holding the opposition to 66. Dylan Windler had 25 points, six boards and four assists in the most recent victory. Murray State has won seven straight, most recently pulling away for an 82-72 victory over SIU Edwardsville. The Racers are averaging 84 PPG and they’re allowing just 66. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bruins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while the Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records and 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 80 points or more in a SU victory in their last contest. Look for the home side to take advantage. Lay the points. 10* play |
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01-22-19 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -1 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Ole Miss comes in off an 84-67 win over Arkansas in its latest action, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. Overall the Runnin Rebels average 79.4 PPG. The Tide come in as the “hungrier” team after their 71-68 loss to Tennessee. Alabama enters averaging 76 PPG. A date vs. the Rebels is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track though as Mississippi has covered in just five of its last 17 trips to Tuscaloosa. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a tight SU loss of 3 points or less. I’m banking on home court playing a big part in the outcome of this one. Play on Alabama. 10* play |
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01-21-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jayhawks have to have a “short memory” here as they look to bounce back from a tough 65-64 defeat to Virginia over the weekend. The setback dropped Kansas into a four-way tie for the Big 12 lead. Iowa State is clearly no push over, but note that it’s won just one of its last 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. After a 72-59 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think the Cyclones stumble in this difficult road venue. Kansas plays with revenge here as well after falling 77-60 in Iowa State back on January 5th. Note that the Cyclones have not swept the season series between the schools since 2001. The pick: Additionally note that Iowa State is 35-16-3 ATS in its last 54 following a SU loss, while Iowa State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog. The situation and the trends/numbers both point to a home side blowout. Lay the points. 10* play |
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01-19-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -10 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 10* St Marys |
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01-16-19 | Long Beach State v. Cal-Irvine -10.5 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 7-10 LBSU is severely overmatched here. The UC Irvine Anteaters enter at 14-4 overall. LBSU averages 75 PPG and it’s allowing 76. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deishaun Booker has been a bright spot by averaging 15 PPG though. UC Irvine averages 70 PPG, but it allows just 64. The Anteaters are deep and talented are hitting 44 percent from the floor as a team thus far. The pick: Additionally note that LBSU is a poor 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after playing its previous game as the favorite, while UC Irvine is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite or pick. Lay the points. *10 UCI |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Wright State somehow managed to take both games vs. Northern Kentucky last year, but I think the Norse will bounce back this season and take the first matchup this time around. Wright State comes in off an 89-73 win over Oakland, while NKU destroyed Detroit 95-73 last time out. The Norse are balanced on both sides of the ball and are the much “deeper” team this season, note that six players would score in double figures in the win over the Titans. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wright State is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while NKU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after a victory in which it scored 95 points or more in. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* DEMOLITION |
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01-10-19 | Youngstown State +9.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Youngstown State will be gunning for an upset here after its 76-51 road win over Milwaukee in its latest contest. UIC enters off a tough 66-64 loss at home to IUPUI in its latest action. The Penguins play with revenge here as they’ve lost four straight in the series, including a 100-75 road loss last February 8th. Youngstown State averages 76.6 PPG and it allows 80.3. UIC averages only 75.6 PPG, while allowing 77.1. The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Youngstown State is already 3-1 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after playing two consecutive road games as the underdog, while UIC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I believe that these teams are much more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Combine the situational and motivational factors working in favor of Youngstown State and an outright win isn’t out of the question here. That said, I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -6 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanova has won three straight and I think it carries that momentum over here into another solid victory at home against the surprising Red Storm, who have started the year 14-1, including conference wins over Marquette and Georgetown. The Red Storm have been playing over their heads, including the thrilling 97-94 OT win over Georgetown. Can anyone say “letdown” spot though? The defending champs will be out to send a message here in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Villanova is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 at home and 35-16 ATS in its last 51 vs. teams with winning records, while St. John’s is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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01-05-19 | Florida State +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: FSU is 12-1 and Virginia is 12-0. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I definitely think that the Seminoles can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Seminoles enter off an 87-76 win over Winthrop, while Virginia smashed Marshall 100-64 at home in its most recent action. Overall FSU averages 82.3 PPG, while allowing 68.4. The Cavaliers average 74.7 PPG and they allow 51.4. The pick: The numbers though support our play on the visitors today, as note that FSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games with a home win percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-03-19 | St. Mary's +2.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dons come in at 12-2 and St. Mary’s is 9-6. The Gaels started slowly by losing their first four, but they’ve bounced back to go 9-6 to this point and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Tanner Krebs led the way in St. Mary’s most recent win with 20 points off six three-pointers. The Gaels come in averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. San Fran may be 12-2, but it comes in off a 73-71 road loss to UC Santa Barbara. San Fran is scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 94.2 per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win of 20 points or more, while San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Clearly the outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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12-31-18 | Montana State v. Northern Arizona -1 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is doing very well this year. Montana state is 4-7, while Northern Arizona is just 2-9. But after beating Southern Utah 92-62 this past Saturday, I think Montana State will take a step back here. Overall Montana State averages 72.7 PPG, while allowing 81.9. Northern Arizona averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 81.1. Most recently the Lumberjacks fell 86-73 to Montana last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Montana State is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 after covering the spread in its previous game, while Northern Arizona is still 13-9 ATS in its last 22 at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after five or more consecutive losses. I think the “hungrier” teams finds a way to get the job done here. Play on Northern Arizona. 10* play |
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12-30-18 | Lipscomb v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Lipscomb comes in off a 91-66 win over Vermont last Saturday to improve to 9-3, but I think the Bison will struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue vs. the Power 5 opponent. Clemson comes in at 9-3 as well and having won three straight, most recently a 78-68 victory over South Carolina. Despite having failed to cover in five of their last six, I think the Tigers will take full advantage of this favorable match-up. Marcquise Reed is back in the line-up after missing three games and he had 20 points in the win over the Gamecocks. I think he’s a difference maker and I believe he’ll be a match-up issue for the Bison. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference home games on the heels of a three games or more unbeaten streak. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Kentucky v. Louisville +1.5 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: After losing to Duke, Kentucky has won nine of its last ten. The Wildcats enter off a win over UNC last weekend, but I think they’ll finally have a letdown here. Louisville looks to defend home court and it comes in with plenty of momentum itself with three straight victories. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well as the Wildcats have won five of the past six in the series. These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but after the extended stretch of great play, including the win over the Tar Heels last weekend, I definitely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot finally for Kentucky. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Kentucky is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Louisville is already 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year. I’m banking on home floor being the difference. Play on Louisville. 10* play |
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12-28-18 | Austin Peay +12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Austin Peay comes in “under the radar” here. The Governors have won six straight and they’re averaging 78.1 PPG, while allowing 75.4. Austin Peay is lead by Terry Taylor who is averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 boards per game. Arkansas has won six of eight, but it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Overall Arkansas is averaging 82.4 PPG and allowing 70.7. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Austin Peay is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while the Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. As stated off the top, I think the Governors come in “under the radar” and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do indeed feel that the stage is se for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-25-18 | Hawaii v. Rhode Island -5 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a consolation game in the Diamond Head Classic and I like the Rhode Island Rams to put the foot on the gas and run the home side Warriors off the floor once its all said and done. Hawaii enters off a 70-62 win over Colorado in the consolation bracket Sunday, while the Rams beat Charlotte 75-61 in their consolation game on Sunday. The Rams feature the more senior players and more talented line-up though and I think this depth will be the difference in the outcome of this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Hawaii is a disappointing 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home underdog or pick. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Charlotte v. TCU -20.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Analysis to come. 10* play |
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12-22-18 | Stanford +8.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dons are 11-1 and the Cardinal are just 6-4 (SU), but I think the value is on the undervalued underdog in this one. The Cardinal have played a difficult non-conference schedule to this point, with three of its setbacks vs. AP Top 25 teams. Stanford though comes in playing its best ball of the young season with two straight wins, most recently a 78-73 defeat of San Jose State. The Dons have beaten Harvard and Cal, but beyond that its opposition has been much weaker to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite in the 7 to 12.5 points range. while Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in is last six as a road underdog in the 7 to 12.5 points range and 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-21-18 | Oregon v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 47-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Oregon has only played one true road game this year and it was a 65-61 loss to Houston on December 1st. And that came on the heels of a shocking 89-84 home loss to Texas Southern. Bears fans can empathize. Baylor enters off an upset 59-58 home loss to Stephen F. Austin. Overall Baylor has been the better defensive team this year and I think that’ll be the main difference in the outcome of this one (note that the Bears are giving up just 63.4 PPG overall and they’ve actually held six of their ten opponents to 61 points or fewer.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Oregon is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU win. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* |
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12-20-18 | Ohio +16 v. Purdue | Top | 67-95 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is 7-3 and the Boilermakers are 6-5. The Bobcats come in off a narrow 63-61 win over Detroit on Saturday. Teyvion Kirk finished with 16 points and seven boards for Ohio, which would go on to outscore Detroit 30-20 in the paint. Purdue comes into this one reeling, loser of five of its last seven after a sharp 4-0 start. Most recently the Boilermakers fell to Texas and Notre Dame. Clearly the competition has been stiff, but I do think that the door is open for Ohio to keep this game competitive as well. Note that the Boilermakers shot just 9 of 29 from range in the loss to the Irish. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a win by six points or less, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses. Grab the point and expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 10* play |
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12-19-18 | Grand Canyon v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are pretty terrible. Grand Canyon is 5-5, while Northern Iowa is 4-6. The Antelopes though are 0-2 in true road games, while the Panther are 2-0 at home. Northern Iowa average 67 PPG and it allows 71. Grand Canyon is averaging 75 PPG and it’s allowing 72. The pick: On paper coach Marjele’s Antelopes have the advantage. But I thick Grand Canyon’s numbers are skewed by the level of competition to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Northern Iowa is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a two games SU/ATS losing streak. Play on the home side. 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 10-0 and Syracuse is 7-3. The Orange will be motivated to snap the Bulls perfect record and I think the home side will deliver the goods. The Bulls return many of the players from a team that went 27-9 last year and which upset No. 3 Arizona in the NCAA Tourney. The Bulls average 112.5 points per 100 possessions. The Orange average 109.9 points per 100 possessions. The pick: Buffalo has been playing at an extremely high level, but there’s no doubt that this is a difficult road venue. Looking a little closer and we discover that the Bulls are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after eight or more consecutive wins, while Syracuse is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-14-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU comes in off a 68-64 win over Mercer to improve to 72. The Owls average 77.8 PPG and they allow 68.4. Jailyn Ingram averages 19.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 apg. Arkansas State comes in hungry after falling 72-56 to Minnesota this past Saturday. Overall the Red Wolves are averaging 74.9 PPG and allowing 79.1, but a lot of that has to do with the level of competition in the early going in my opinion. Ty Cockfield averages 21.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg. I think home court will prove to be big here. The pick: The Red Wolves are the “hungrier” team. Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less, while Arkansas State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after failing to score 58 or more points in its previous outing. Play on Arkansas State. 10* |
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12-13-18 | Eastern Washington +18.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 63-85 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Washington Eagles are just 1-6 and the San Francisco Dons are 8-1. Clearly this is a major mismatch, but I think the home side is going to get caught looking past its lowly opponent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Eagles to sneak in through. Eastern Washington has lost three straight, most recently a 74-67 setback to NDSU, led by 25 points from Jacob Davidson. Overall the Eagles average 62.9 PPG. The Dons average 80.2 PPG and they come in off a very satisfying 79-60 win over the Cal Golden Bears. Can anyone say letdown spot? From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for the underdog. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more straight road losses, while the Dons are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of pick. 10* play |
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12-11-18 | Colorado v. New Mexico +5 | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado’s been rolling (7-1 overall and five straight wins) and because of that, I believe it’ll get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. The Lobos are 4-3 and they’ll be focused and eager to get back on track after back-to-back setbacks at the hands of New Mexico State and St. Mary’s. The pick: Colorado is about to being a stretch of six straight games on the road and note that the Buffs are just 9-26 on the road the last three seasons. Take it for what you will as well, but the Buffs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite or pick. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-06-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa +1.5 | Top | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State has won eight of the last ten in this series, but I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor this time around. After four straight wins, including an 81-59 victory over NDSU on Monday, I think Iowa State suffers a letdown here finally. The Cyclones allow only 61.9 PPG, but I think they’ll have their hands full today against a Hawkeyes team desperate to avoid a three-game skid. Iowa has been a beast on the offensive end though, scoring 80.8 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a SU loss by 20 or more points, while Iowa State is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 on the road. Play on Iowa. 10* play |
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12-05-18 | TCU -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the 5-1 TCU Horned Frogs vs. the 6-3 Mustangs and in my opinion, this spread could easily be a lot larger. TCU has gotten healthier over the last two weeks, with the return of forward Kouat Noi and guard Jaylen Fisher. “[Fisher has] made our offense better without shooting at a high, high percentage,” head coach Jamie Dixon noted. “He has a real good understanding of where other guys on the floor are at. He’s one of our best guys at playing without the ball. His cuts and his movement, that’s what makes us better with him.” SMU has won four straight, but the level of competition gets called into question, most recently a 79-67 win over Oral Roberts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home and only 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with winning records, while TCU is a solid 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Play on TCU. 10* |
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12-02-18 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Washington -13 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-2 Washington Huskies aren’t going to take the 6-1 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos for granted here. And that’s because the Gauchos have won five straight, most recently crushing Sacramento State 75-58 on Thursday. But the Huskies are the deeper and more skilled team from the Power Conference and I look for them to lay the hammer down here. Washington bounced back a two-point loss to Minnesota to destroy Eastern Washington 83-59 on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCSB is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after cover four of its last five ATS, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five after covering as a double digit favorite. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-01-18 | Kansas State v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: K-State enters off a 77-58 home win over Lehigh, while Marquette comes in off a 76-55 home victory over Charleston Southern. K-State is a difficult opponent, as all five starters return from last year. Northwestern averages only 73.0 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 56.3. Those numbers (especially the defensive ones) are a bit “skewed” though in my opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Golden State won’t be going down without a fight, it’s 5-2 to open the year and it averages 75.3 PPG, while allowing 65.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but K-State is just 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games following three or more consecutive home games and interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big East. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 at home this season. Expect that unbeaten streak to extend. 10* |
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11-30-18 | San Francisco v. Stephen F Austin +9 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are 4-1 after beating St. Edwards 73-60 on Sunday. Shannon Bogues had 16 points. The Dons are 6-0 and off to their best star ever. Most recently San Francisco beat Dartmouth 84-65 on Saturday. Franke Ferrari had 19 points, four boards and seven assists. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but SFA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while San Francisco is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. |
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11-29-18 | Alabama +7 v. UCF | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 5-1. Alabama enters off a 78-72 home win over Murray State, while UCF comes in off a 66-63 home win over Northern Kentucky. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tide after the Knights recorded the 65-62 road win last year. The Tide average 77 PPG and they allow 70.3. The Knights average 75.3 PPG and they allow 62.3. The pick: Alabama comes from the tougher conference and it’s loaded with talent. I’m expecting a battle between these two titans. Take it for what you will as well, but Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a raod dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while UCF is still 14-15 ATS in its last 29 after allowing 60 points or less. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-28-18 | Virginia -3.5 v. Maryland | Top | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams are both undefeated, but I think the Cavs unrelenting defensive attack will once again win the day on Wednesday night. Virginia most recently dominated Wisconsin 53-46 to win the Battle For Atlantis, holding the Badgers to just 2 of 11 from range and 43.8 percent from the floor overall. The Virginia defense is ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing 49.3 PPG. Maryland has been the beneficiary of a weak schedule to this point, with five of its first six games at home. The Terps do come in off an impressive 104-67 destruction of Marshall, but note that this is a spot in which Maryland has struggled in nightly. The pick: As take it for what you will, but the Terps are already a poor 2-4 ATS in their last six non-conference games and just 1-4 ATS at home overall, while the Cavs are 4-2 ATS in non-conference contests and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 on the road. Lay the points. |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech -1 v. Penn State | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: VT hasn’t started a season 6-0 for the last six years, but it can accomplish that feat tonight in its first true road game of the campaign. VT enters off a dominating 75-37 rout of St. Francis of Pennsylvania on Saturday and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Four players have at least nine three-balls so far this year for the Hokies ash they’re shooting a solid 41.4 percent from range overall. VT is only 5-7 all time in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, but it’s won its last two. PSU comes in off a crushing 59-56 upset loss to Bradley in the title game of the Cancun Classic and I think its ripe for the picking here. Overall the Nittany Lions shot just 4 of 27 from range in the setback. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 0.5 and 6.5 points range, while VT is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the short points. |
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11-25-18 | Oregon State -7.5 v. Long Beach State | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Beavers are rolling. They return from a successful showing in the Virgin Islands State side with a 4-1 record. LBSU on the other hand has done poorly to this point with a 1-3 record. The Beavers feature plenty of talent and veteran experience, led by Tres Tinkle, who had a double-double in all four games in the Virgin Islands tournament. Most recently he had 32 points in the win over Penn. The 49ers lost 87-72 to Utah Valley most recently, with Deishuan Booker a lone bright spot with 17.8 points. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning percentages under .400. I don’t see Oregon State looking past this opportunity. Lay the points. |
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11-24-18 | Princeton -2 v. Monmouth | Top | 60-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Princeton has plenty of new faces from last year’s team, but I still think it’ll have more than enough to take care of Monmouth. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by Las Vegas. The pick: The “edges” for this play though come in the numbers, as note that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of three points or less and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Monmouth is a poor 7-12 ATS in its last 19 non-conference contests and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. Lay the points. 10* play |
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11-15-18 | Valparaiso +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU enters off an 86-71 home win over UT Martin, while Valparaiso comes in off a 121-65 victory over Concordia Illinois. This is part of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Crusaders averaged 70.4 points and allowed 68.2 last year. Ryan Fazekas leads the nightly charge and he had 18 points in Val’s most recent victory. Last year WKU averaged 70.5 PPG and it allowed 72. Taveion Hollingsworth was a standout in the latest win with 22 points. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Valparaiso is 5-2 ATS in its last even neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU win of more than 20 points. Grab the points. |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt v. USC -2.5 | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-0, but I think that USC presents match-up issues for Vanderbilt. It did last year when the Trojans prevailed 93-89 in OT last November. The Commodores play this difficult non-conference contest, but then they return home for a series of “cream puffs.” In my opinion, this sets up as a letdown spot for Vandy. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 90 or more points in its previous outing. Play on USC. 10* play |
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11-09-18 | Detroit v. Temple -20 | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Temple Owls were 17-16 last year, but they’re expected to take a step forward this season and they got things started off on the “right foot” with a 75-67 home win over La Salle. Detroit was 8-24 last year and it enters off a listless 89-76 loss to WMU in its opener. Things aren’t going to get any easier on the Mercy tonight, as the Owls love to get out and push the pace. The Titans lost three of their four top scorers from last year and I have a hard time seeing this year’s unit keeping pace with Temple. The pick; The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. Look for Temple’s Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr. to dominate and lay the points with confidence. |
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11-08-18 | Siena +6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Siena enters hungry after falling 77-67 to Providence in its Opener on Tuesday. The Saints would lose the rebound battle by a 31-23 margin. Evan Fisher was a bright spot in the setback with 11 points, six boards and three assists. Siena has a new coach and new faces, but its loaded with talent none-the-less. The Colonials enter 0-1 as well, but I think they come in dwelling on what could have been after falling 77-74 in OT to the Stony Brook Seawolves on Tuesday. George Washington lost the rebound battle as well 17-12, while also committing 17 turnovers. Arnalda Toro had 13 points and 11 boards. The pick: It’s a rebuilding year for each team, but note that the Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. George Washington is still reeling from the opening night loss and while I won’t call for the outright, I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Grab the points. |
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11-06-18 | Duke v. Kentucky | Top | 118-84 | Loss | -124 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats and I think the SEC school will find a way to get the job done here. The Blue Devils were 29-8 in ACC play last year, while the Wildcats finished 26-11 in SEC action. Last year Duke averaged 84.4 PPG and it allowed 69.6. Kentucky averaged 76.8 PPG and it allowed 70.2. The picks: Duke may have the “flashier/bigger” names on its roster, but John Calipari’s team is loaded with talent as well and I don’t think they’re getting nearly enough respect here. Duke’s young recruits get their first real test here and I think they came up just short. Play on Kentucky. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 130 h 7 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -102 | 127 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: While a pair of No. 1 seeds (Villanova and Kansas) square off in Saturday's second game, the first game of the NCAA's semifinals features the No. 11-seeded Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. the No. 3-seeded Michigan Wolverines. The Ramblers are just the fourth No. 11 seed to advance to a Final Four and hope to become the first one to advance to the title game. Loyola's NCAA run has been "magical," winning their first three games by a grand total of four points, before the team's resounding 78-62 win over No. 9 seed Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers are 32-5 on the season and enter on a 14-game winning streak (21-1 over their last 22 games), going 23-9-1 ATS on the season, including 11-3 ATS during their current winning streak. Michigan did not look good in its first two NCAA wins (needed a 'miracle three' to beat Houston) but looked great in its Sweet 16 romp over Texas A&M and controlled most of the second half against FSU, although the Wolverines won just 58-54. Michigan also owns 32 wins (seven losses) on the season and comes in 24-12-2 ATS on the year. The Wolverines come in on a 13-game winning streak, going 10-2-1 ATS, as eight of their wins have come by double digits. Loyola-Chicago: The Ramblers looked very impressive in downing Kansas State, shooting 57.4% from the floor (including 9-of-1) from beyond the arc), while holding Kansas State to just 34.8% shooting. Ben Richardson led with 23 points. He's one of four starting guards but averages a modest 7.0 & 3.9 APG. The other three, all made game-winning or game-clinching shots in Loyola's first three NCAA wins. The trio is led by MVC player-of-the-year Custer (13.2 & 4.2 APG) plus Ingram (11.3 & 6.3) and Townes (11.2 & 3.9). 6-9 freshman Krutwig starts at center, averaging 10.3 & 6.1. SF Jackson (11.0) and guard Williamson (4.9) round out the team's seven-man rotation. Loyola scores a modest 72.0 PPG (225th) but shoots an impressive 50.9% from the floor as team (3rd-best in the nation). Defensively, Loyola has allowed only 62.4 PPG on the season, ranking fifth-best in the nation. Michigan: The Wolverines used a 9-0 run to start the 2nd half, creating some separation from the Seminoles and held off a late Florida State charge after taking a 54-44 lead with just 2:26 left in regulation. Michigan shot only 38.8% from the floor but did hold Florida State to just 31.4% shooting, including just 4-of-17) on threes beyond the arc. Charles Matthews had 17 points, to lead Michigan to the win. Matthews is one of four contributing guards and is averaging 13.0 & 5.6 on the season. Fellow starters are Abdur-Rahkman (12.8-3.9-3.3 apg) and Zavier Simpson (7.5-3.3-3.7). The 6-11 Warner leads in scoring (14.3 ) and rebounding (6.9) while 6-7 freshman Livers is only a nominal starter (he averages 3.6 & 2.3 in right around 15 MPG). Sixth-man Robinson, checks in averaging 9.5 PPG and let's not forget freshman Jordan Poole (6.2), whose 'miracle 3' beat Houston. Like Loyola, Michigan does not score all that much (74.1 PPG) but similar to the Ramblers, the Wolverines know how to play defense, allowing 63.1 PPG to rank 8th-best in the nation. The pick: You've all been told all about Loyola's 1963 NCAA champions and how this year's team is a reminder of that over-achieving group. There are similarities but it's doubtful Porter Moser will go the entire game like the '63 team, which didn't substitute once in regulation or overtime in the title game vs. Cincinnati (can't make that up!). Both teams play excellent D and Michiagn's John Beilein is one of the nation's best. However, Porter Moser is proving he may soon belong in the discussion of top-notch coaches and his team is a worthy Final 4 participant, The Ramblers have plenty of balance with five double-digit scorers, including 6-9 freshman Krutwig in the middle to battle Warner. The team has plenty of size on the wings to shoot over the Michigan defense on the perimeter. In Clayton Custer, Donte Ingram, and Marques Townes, Moser has clutch scorers who each made key last-second baskets that allowed the Ramblers to escape the early rounds. Don't be surprised to see that happen again. Take the points and make Loyola a 10* play. |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -6 | Top | 67-51 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The CIT Tournament flies "way under the radar" but the semifinals of this tourney will be contested tonight. The UIC Flames and Liberty Flames will square off at the Vines Center, Liberty's homecourt in Lynchburg, Va. UIC has had a nice season as the 19-15 Flames will finish this season with their first winning record since the 2012-13 season and look poised to be a contender in the Horizon League next year. Liberty made it to the Big South championship game where it was nipped by Radford at the buzzer and comes into this contest at 22-14, after two home wins. UIC: The Flames defeated Austin Peay a week ago Wednesday, despite trailing by a 14-points early in the 2nd half. An 11-0 run was the key and after a Tai Odiase dunk gave the Flames an 80-76 lead with 1:11 left in regulation., UIC held on for an 83-81 win. Did UIC hold Austin Peay to just 2-of-16 shooing from beyond the arc, or did the Governors just shoot poorly? Leading the way for the Flames was Tarkus Ferguson ,who had 21 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and a steal. Ferguson (10.2-5.3-5.2) is joined by two others in double digits. The 6-7 Dixson (14.2 & 3.5) is the team's leading scorer (more on that in a bit) and guard Ottey adds 13.5 PPG. Odiase, the team's 6-9 center, adds 9.4 PPG and a team-high 5.7 RPG. UIC averages 75.6 PPG (12nd) on 45.3% shooting. Liberty: Try to figure out the CIT bracket methodology. Liberty's first game was Mar 12 (a 65-52 home win over NC A&T) but then didn't play again until March 24, when it used a big second half to defeat the Central Michigan Chippewas 84-74, this past Saturday. Liberty closed the 1st half on a 9-0 run to tie the game at 39-all. Then pulled away from Central Michigan midway through the 2nd half after an 11-0 Flames run gave Liberty a 64-53 lead with 9:18 left in regulation. Liberty shot 56.1% from the floor and 44.0% (12-25) from beyond the arc in the victory. Leading the way for the Flames was Scottie James who had 20 points and nine rebounds. The 6-7 James (a transfer from Bradley) leads in scoring (13.6) and rebounding (8.9), while four guards follow, three in double digits. PG Cabbil (11.2-4.4-3.8) heads the team's quartet of guards, followed by Kemrite (10.3), Pacheco-Ortiz (10.1) and Homesley (8.1 & 4.6). Liberty averages a modest 71.4 PPG (243rd) but holds opponents to just 63.5 PPG (9th) on 41.5% shooting (50th). The pick: Maybe this is "Chicago's year," considering Loyola is in the Final Four? Then again, winning on Liberty's homecourt will be a real challenge, as head coach Ritchie McKay’s team already owns a pair of 13-point home wins in this tourney. What's more, UIC's leading scorer, Dikembe Dixson, decided to go the Leonard Fournette/Christian McCaffrey route and sit out the postseason to instead prepare for the upcoming NBA draft. Does he think he's LBJ??? Make Liberty a 10* play. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The set-Up: There is more than just a small dose of normalcy on deck in the NCAA's Midwest Regional Final from CenturyLink Center in Omaha, as two of college basketball's true blue bloods, top-seeded Kansas and second-seeded Duke square off for the right to advance to the Final Four. Kansas and Duke have combined to win eight NCAA titles, including three of the last 10, and are two of the top-four winningest programs in NCAA history (rank 2nd & 4th in all-time victories). After extending its record Big 12 regular-season title streak to 14, Kansas won the Big 12 tourney and has now advanced to the Elite Eight for the third straight year, jumping out to a 20-point lead early in the second half before holding off Clemson, 80-76, on Friday night. Duke, the AP's preseason No. 1, will be trying to advance to the Final Four for the 17th time (it would a record 13th Final 4 for Coach K) after grinding out a 69-65 victory over Syracuse. The Blue Devils are back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015, when they won their fifth NCAA championship. Duke: The Blue Devils beat the Orange despite shooting only 39.3 percent (including 5-of-26 from three-point range,), while getting outrebounded, 37-33. Duke starts four freshmen but don't feel too sorry for Coach K, who picked up his 1,100th career coaching victory and 94th career tournament win against Syracuse (both NCAA record). Two of the freshmen, 6-11 forward Marvin Bagley III (21.2 & 11.1), who garnered ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year honors plus the 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. (13.6 & 9.3) are both both projected as top-10 draft picks (most likely, HIGH top-10 picks!). Freshman guards Gary Trent Jr. (14.4 & 4.3) and Trevon Duval (10.0 & 5.6 APG) are also considered potential first rounders and senior guard Grayson Allen (15.6 & 4.7 APG) may just join his freshman teammates on draft night, as well. Bagley has been a 'rock,' scoring exactly 22 points in each of Duke's tourney wins. Allen had 15 points and a team-high eight assists in Friday night's win but was just 3-of-14 from three-point range. Duke's 84.4 PPG ranks 8th in the nation and the team's 49.4 percent shooting from the floor ranks 12th. Kansas: The Jayhawks have made it this far despite the loss of five-star recruit Billy Preston to eligibility issues and 7-foot center Udoka Azubuike being forced to play with a left knee brace to help support a MCL injury suffered in a March 6 practice. The team's lone big man of note was forced sit out the Big 12 Tournament and then played just three minutes in a 76-60 opening-round win over Pennsylvania. However, Azubuike has averaged 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in the last two games while connecting on 11-of-14 shots despite limping noticeably at times (he's shooting 77.5 percent on the season!). Azubuike's (13.2 & 7.0) presence inside will be a key factor in trying to defend the imposing Duke front line of Bagley and Carter but Kansas will likely need to rely on its outstanding perimeter people to win The quartet of Graham (17.3 & 7.4 APG), Svi Mykhailiuk (14.8 ppg), Malik Newman (13.5 7 4.9) and Lagerald Vick (12.1 &4.9) are quite a handful and all are excellent three-point shooters, who will test Duke's 2-3 zone. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG (29th) plus ranks 11th in both FG percentage (49.5) and three-point percentage (40.5). The pick: Here's the bottom line in a battle between Kansas (2,247 wins is second in all-time Division I victories) and Duke (fourth with 2,144 wins). This marks the sixth time Bill Self's Kansas team has been a No. 1 seed and and advanced to the Elite 8. However, Self's teams are 0-5 in their previous five tries and considering Duke is a money-making 22-12 ATS this season (including 9-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite), the Blue Devils are an 8* play. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State +5 v. Michigan | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The West Regional Final will feature No. 3 Michigan against No. 9 Florida State. The Wolverines were hardly impressive in reaching the Sweet 16 (freshman Jordan Poole's long three at the buzzer beat Houston in the Round of 32) but set a new NCAA Tournament single-game record as eight players made at least one three-pointer in an impressive 99-72 win against seventh-seeded Texas A&M on Thursday, as Michigan its most points scored in an NCAA Tournament game since 1992. 31-7 Michigan has now won 12 straight games, including nine in a row away from home and can set a single-season program record with its 32nd victory at the Staples Center Saturday night against Florida State..The Seminoles had just one player finish in double figures against Gonzaga but Florida State was the more active and more aggressive team against the Bulldogs, blocking nine shots while holding Gonzaga to 33.9 percent shooting from the floor. The Seminoles' press was just too much for Gonzaga throughout the game and the 'Noles were efficient in transition. Florida State has reached the Elite 8 for the first time since 1993 and a win over Michigan would put them in the Final Four for the first time since 1972 (lost to Bill Walton's UCLA Bruins in the title game!). Florida State:Terance Mann (12.9 & 5.5) led the way with 18 points in the win over Gonzaga, despite being hampered by a groin injury. Three more guards had solid efforts, as Braian Angola (12.7) and C.J. Walker (8.1) each added nine points, while Trent Forrest (4.9-4.9-4.1) provided a big spark off the bench with seven points, six rebounds and six assists. The 6-8 Cofer (12.7 & 4.9) has been the team's best frontcourt player this season but he had just seven points plus grabbed only one rebound. The 6-9 Kabengele (7.3 & 4.7) and the 7-4 Koumadje (6.7 & 4.3) have contributed on and off all season and against Gonzaga, Kabengele came off the bench to block four shots and add seven points. "We're a team that operates with the philosophy that we have to win games by committee," Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "They're all able to contribute offensively and defensively because of that philosophy." This is Hamilton's best postseason run in his 16 years at Florida State. The pick: Michigan and Florida State both know the winner will meet either Loyola-Chicago (an 11-seed) or Kansas State (a 9-seed) in the national semifinals, so a trip to the title game just could be in the cards for the winner of this contest. No way one can ignore Michigan's 12-game winning streak, which includes eight wins by double digits. However, the Wolverines' points were the second-most they've scored this season and second-most of any team in the NCAA Tournament this year. Plus, their 61.9 percent field-goal shooting is the best of any team in the tourney this year. Does anyone really expect them to come anywhere near that type of offensive efficiency against an FSU defense 61.3 allowing 61.3 PPG on 37.6% shooting in its three NCAA wins? Also, let's not forget that this may be Hamilton's best offensive team at FSU, as the Seminoles are averaging 80.9 PPG on 47.2 % shooting on the season. Make FSU a 10* play. |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The two teams that busted up the NCAA Tournament’s South Regional bracket, the ninth-seeded Kansas State Wildcats (25-11) and the 11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (31-5) will square off Saturday square off Saturday in Atlanta's Philip's Arena, with a long-awaited return to the Final Four on the line for the winner. Kansas State is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010 but the Wildcats have lost the last six times they've had a chance to advance to the Final Four. The school's last Final Four trip came back in 1964, one year after Loyola claimed the national title in its only Final Four trip. The Ramblers were a power in the 1960s but they hadn’t been in the NCAA Tournament since 1985, before this year’s Cinderella run. Kansas State overcame foul trouble( three players fouled out) to edge No. 5 Kentucky 61-58, while Loyola beat No. 7 seed Nevada 69-68, giving the Ramblers three NCAA wins by a grand total of just four points! Loyola-Chicago: The Ramblers have won 13 straight, the longest streak in the nation with Gonzaga losing to Michigan, and 20 of their last 21. They closed out the win over Nevada by shooting 75 percent in the second half, as guard Marques Townes (11.2) and SF Aundre Jackson (11.2 points) made key three-pointers down the stretch. Five players are averaging in double-digits, led by Clayton Custer (13.4 & 4.2 APG), the hero of the Tennessee win, and the 6-6 Donte Ingram (11.2 & 6.3), the hero of the Mia-Fl. win. The 6-9 Krutwig (10.4 & 6.1) rounds out the double digit scorers. With Loyola clinging to a one-point lead and only 6.3 seconds remaining, Townes nailed the decisive three-pointer to help clinch a 69-68 win over Nevada. He led Loyola with 18 points, after he had scored only 15 points in Loyola's first two NCAA tournament wins. Do you get the feeling this is Loyola's year? I believe Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt, Loyola's 98-year-old team chaplain who has become a celebrity during the tournament, believes just that (she may have a pipeline?). Kansas State: The Wildcats' remarkable run through the tournament (note: It was aided by No. 16 seed Maryland-Baltimore County knocking off overall No. 1 seed Virginia) has come despite getting very little from the team's leading scorer and rebounder, the Dean Wade (16.2 & 6.2). The 6-10 center missed the first two games with a foot injury and was limited to eight minutes against Kentucky. PG Barry Brown (16.0-3.2-3.3) and 6-5 swingman Xavier Sneed (11.0 & 5.1) have stepped up to carry the load in his absence. Despite being one of three Wildcats to foul out against Kentucky, Sneed led KSU with 22 points. Brown had 13 points vs Kentucky and seized the moment with 18 seconds remaining, banking in a left-handed shot to give KSU a 60-58 lead. Brown also had 18 points in each of KSU's first two tourney wins. The pick: It's come down to this, 9 vs. 11 in the Elite Eight for the first time in tournament history, with a trip to the Final Four on the line. Isn't that just perfect in a regional that became the first in NCAA history to have the top four seeds knocked out the very first weekend, including No. 1-ranked and overall No. 1 seed in the 2018 tourney, Virginia. Will we know the winner by halftime? Maybe? The Ramblers are 22-0 when leading at halftime and the Wildcats are 20-2 when ahead at the half. However, I will not buck Loyola (and Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt), which is 22-9-1 ATS on the season. What's more, one could make a strong case that Loyola has faced tougher challenges already in defeating Miami-Fla, Tennessee, and Nevada. Make the Ramblers an 8* play. |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 84 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the No. 3-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders taking on the No. 2-seeded Purdue Boilermakers Friday in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 East Regional action at the TD Garden in Boston. Texas Tech was jilted by Tubby Smith when he led the Red Raiders to the tournament and then left for Memphis. However, Smith's buyout money helped lure Chris Beard away from UNLV to Lubbock, where Beard had spent a decade as an assistant at Texas Tech. Beard's national profile skyrocketed two years ago when his Arkansas-Little Rock squad upset fifth-seeded Purdue in the opening round, 85-83 in double overtime. He signed a deal with UNLV but never coached a game, instead returning to Texas Tech. It has sure worked out for Texas Tech, as Beard has the program back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005 and as fate would have it, the 26-9 Red Raiders will play the 30-6 Boilermakers (30-6). Purdue head coach may not admit it but I'm sure he'd love to avenge that 2016 loss to Beard's Arkansas-Little Rock team. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have had some injury problems with leading scorer Keenan Evans (17.8 PPG) having to fight his way through a painful turf toe plus injury-prone center Zach Smith (6.1 & 3.8) has had trouble staying on the court for extended minutes. However, freshman guard Culver (11.5 & 4.9) and freshman SF Zhaire Smith (11.3 & 4.8) have matured as the season has progressed. The team's mid-season form (Tech was once 22-4) seemed to resurface in Dallas, as a healthier Evans scored 45 points in the two games at Dallas, while freshman Smith came up big vs. Florida in the second round, scoring 18 points. Zach Smith also was able to average 19 minutes in Tech's two NCAA wins, totaling 15 points and grabbing seven rebounds.Tech is not an outstanding offensive team (Red Raiders are averaging 74.9 PPG) but defensively, Tech holds opponents to 64.6 PPG (15th) on 40.3% shooting (14th). The active Red Raider defense was able to deliver key stops vs. Florida in a 69-66 win. Purdue: The Boilermakers know about key injuries, as 7-2 senior center Isaac Haas (14.7 & 5.7) fractured his right elbow in Purdue's first-round victory over Cal State Fullerton on Friday. Luckily for the Boilermakers, they're one of the few programs in the country that can sub-in one agile 7-footer for another. 7-3 backup Matt Haarms performed well in the second-round victory over Butler, scoring seven points, grabbing six rebounds and making two blocks in a four-point win over the Bulldogs. Purdue averages 80.8 PPG (38th) on 49.4% shooting (13th), including making 42.1% on threes (second-best in the nation!). Guard Carsen Edwards leads a trio of guards with a team-high 18.2 PPG, joined by PG Mathias (12.3-4.1-4.0) and Thompson (7.4). The 6-8 Vince Edwards (14.7 & 7.2) will be asked to produce even more, with Haas sidelined. The pick: Purdue would arguably be one of the top-four teams remaining, if Haas were available. His status is up to the engineers of Purdue to manufacture a brace that is NCAA-compliant (is that likely?). The Boilermakers have survived without Haas by hitting their open shots. The Boilermakers are 22-for-25 on uncontested shots in the NCAA tournament (88 percent), best among Sweet 16 teams. Will that continue, especially against an excellent Texas Tech D? Evans is averaging 21.2 PPG on better than 54 percent shooting over Tech's last five games, so Purdue's task will not be easy. However, I like the "coaching revenge angle" and will take Painter over Beard in this one. Make Purdue an 8* play. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -109 | 80 h 16 m | Show |
The setup: Kansas is the Midwest's top seed and can't be unhappy with the regional being played at CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Ne. The Jayhawks own a five-game winning streak and have won 10 of their last 11 outings. to enter this game at 29-7. Kansas opened the Big Dance with a 76-60 win over Penn and then beat No. 8-seed Seton Hall 83-79. The Clemson Tigers (a No. 5 seed) have won five of their last seven games, managing a 79-68 victory over New Mexico State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, then followed with a big 84-53 win over No. 4 Auburn. Clemson comes in at 25-9 on the year. Clemson:Head coach Brad Brownell took note of the other coaches in the regional (Coach K, Jim Boeheim and Bill Self) and said, "Nobody is going to know who I am. It's like coaching the ACC. I don't look down at the other end when we're coaching. That's not good for my mental health." However, Brownell has Clemson in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997, after previously coaching Wright State and UNC-Wilmington to tournament appearances. The Tigers advanced by limiting Auburn to 25.8 percent shooting and points on just 22 of 70 possessions in an 84-53 second-round mismatch. Clemson ranks 2th in points allowe (65.5 per) and 17th in defensive FG perecentage at 40.4%, The loss of guard Deonte Grantham (14.2 & 6.9) was huge but a trio of 6-3 guards have come through in Marcquise Reed (15.9 & 4.7), Gabe DeVoe (13.7 & 4.6) and Shelton Mitchell (12.2 & APG). The 6-9 Thomas (10.9 & 8.9) is really the only key frontcourt contributor. Gabe DeVoe has stepped up with back-to-back 22-point efforts in Clemson's two wins. Kansas: The Jayhawks have outlasted Penn and Seton Hall in the first two rounds and are glad to have 7-0 center Udoka Azubuike back. He sat out the Jayhawks' championship run in the Big 12 Tournament with an MCL strain but played 22 minutes against Seton Hall and contributed 10 points and seven rebounds. Azubuike leads the nation in field goal percentage, making 77.5 percent of his attempts, while averaging 13.2 PPG and 6.9 RPG. His presence is vital, as Self's other four starters are all guards. Devonté Graham (17.4-4.0-7.5) was the Big 12's POY and is joined by Mykhailiuk (15.0 & 3.9), Newman (13.4 & 4.8) and Vick (12.1 & 4.8). Newman led the way with 28 points against Seton Hall, upping his average to 22.0 PPG in Kansas' five tourney games (Big 12 and Big Dance). The pick: Shorthanded Auburn was clearly not the same team without the services of its top big, 6-7 soph Anfernee McLemore and Auburn missed 18 straight shots at one point against Clemson. Really think that will happen to Kansas? Kansas averages 81.4 PPG (29th) on 49.6% shooting (12th) and is now healthy with the return of Azubuike. Also, I sure expect Graham to bounce back with a difference-making offensive showing after going just 1 of 7 from the floor vs. Seton Hall. Kansas has won and covered in this round of the tourney the last two years, with comfy ATS wins over Purdue (98-66 last year) and Maryland (79-63 in 2016). Make it three straight years, as Kansas is a 10* play. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State +6 v. Gonzaga | Top | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 59 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Sweet 16 action in the West Regional features the No. 9 seed Florida State Seminoles and the No. 4 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs at Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Seminoles ended the season by losing six of their final 10 down the stretch but their 20-11 mark was good enough to earn them a second straight tournament appearance and a sixth overall under head coach Leonard Hamilton. FSU picked up its 21st victory of the season on Friday, getting past a shorthanded Missouri team and then the Seminoles shocked No. 1 Xavier on Sunday, closing the game with an 18-4 run to win 75-70 and give them 22 wins on the season. Gonzaga ended its regular season 30-4 and with the AP's No. 8 ranking but the Bulldogs drew only a No. 4 seed (more on that later). Gonzaga opened with a less than impressive four-point win over UNC-Greensboro but then made 53.4 percent of its shots in a 90-84 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Bulldogs are in the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight season, the longest such streak in the country. If Gonzaga reaches the Final Four, it will set a Division I record for victories in a four-year span. Florida State: The Seminoles opened the season having lost four starters off last year's 26-win team and little was expected. However, FSU began the season 9-0 before a one-point loss to Oklahoma State. FSU features a balanced scoring attack with four guards contributing. Angola (12.8 & 3.9) and Mann (12.7 & 5.5) are the highest perimeter scorers, joined by Walker (8.1) and Forrest (7.9 & 4.9-4.1). The 6-8 Cofer (13.1 & 5.0) has had a breakout senior year and works up front with the 7-4 Koumadje (6.9 & 4.6) and 6-9 freshman Kabengele (7.3 & 4.8). Angola was the Seminoles top gun against Xavier, scoring 16 points. Forrest had 13 points, five rebounds and four steals. Mann and Cofer had 10 ten points apiece plus Kabengele added nine points. Junior guard PJ Savoy (6.6) gave Florida State 11 points! The Seminoles have solid depth and can scorewith most teams, averaging 81.1 PPG (34th). Gonzaga: The Bulldogs average 84.2 PPG (10th), on pace to be the highest scoring average in school history. The Bulldogs are outscoring opponents by 16.7 PPG this season, the second-highest scoring differential in Division I. Gonzaga has very good balance, with the 6-9 Williams (13.6 & 8.4) leading the way. He's got plenty of help up front with the 6-10 Tillie (12.9 & 5.9) and the 6-8 Hachimura (11.4 & 4.6). Freshman guard Norvell Jr.(12.7) carried the Bulldogs with 28 points and 12 rebounds against Ohio State and is joined in the backcourt by PG Perkins (12.4 & 5.3 APG) and Melson (9.3). The pick: The Bulldogs have captured 21 of their last 22 outings, with the only loss coming in a hard-fought 74-71 home loss vs. WCC rival Saint Mary’s back in mid January. However, WCC is not the most challenging league, hence Gonzaga's No. 4 seed. In year's past. FSU could not match Gonzaga point-for-point in years past but that's not the case here in 2018. FSU owns a tall, athletic and deep bench, which has actually outscored its starters over the last four games! Note that 11 different players saw action in the first eight minutes last Sunday in the upset over Xavier and that the Seminoles have averaged 43.5 bench PPG, 12.5 more than any other team in the field. Chalk up another upset here, as FSU is an 8* play. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -3 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The West Regional from Staples Center in Los Angeles also features the No. 3 seed Michigan Wolverines and the No. 7 seed Texas A&M Aggies. Michigan played terrific basketball at the end of the regular season and surprisingly won a second straight Big Ten tourney title. However, while Michigan was able to handcuff Montana in a first round NCAA tourney win (held the Grizzlies to 47 points), the Wolverines needed a 'miracle' three-pointer by Jordan Poole to edge Houston 64-63 in the second round. Texas A&M bested a good Providence team in the first round and then shocked North Carolina (No. 2 seed) 86-65 in Charlotte, no less. Texas A&M: The Aggies reached the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons, overcoming an 0-5 start in SEC play to finish 9-9 and tied for seventh with Mississippi State. A&M then lost on a buzzer-beater to Alabama in the team's conference tournament opener but still got a 7-seed with a 20-12 record (A&M opened the 2017-18 season at 11-1). 6-10 center Tyler Davis leads in scoring (14.6) and is second in rebounding (9.0). Guard Admon Gilder (12.4 & 4.1) and the 6-9 DJ Hogg (11.2 & 5.3) were both key members of the Texas A&M team that reached the Sweet 16 two years ago. The 6-10 Williams adds 10.3 RPG and a team-high 9.3 RPG, while guards Starks (10.1) and Wilson (9.0) and no slouches. Just ask the Tar Heels about Starks, who led A&M with 21 points on 7 of 15 shooting with a team-high five assists. The Aggies overwhelmed North Carolina, connecting on 10-of-24 three-pointers as part of an impressive 31 of 60 (51.7%) showing from the floor. Michigan: After the team's grind-it-out 61-47 win over Montana, when Michigan allowed the third-fewest points in its NCAA Tournament history, the one-point win over Houston was a 'gift.' The 6-11 Wagner leads Michigan in scoring (14.2) and rebounding (7.1) and is joined in the starting lineup up front by the 6-7 Livers, although he contributes little with 3.7 & 2.3. Beilein starts three guards in Matthews (12.8 & 5.5), Abur-Rahkman (12.6-3.9-3.3) and Simpson (7.3 & 3.6 APG). A fourth guard, Robinson (9.5), is a major contributor to the rotation. Beilein-coached teams always play great D and this one is no different, as Michigan is allowing 63.1 PPG (8th). The pick: A Texas A&M versus Michigan matchup in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 was not a farfetched notion back in December but it's a surprise now, as A&M didn't look like much of an NCAA tourney team, until its first two games of this year's Big Dance. Now, we've got a ballgame. The Aggies are surely oozing confidence following their romp over defending champ North Carolina. However, expect the Aggies to have trouble finding their rhythm on offense against Beilein's tough D. Sure, Michigan "got lucky": vs. Houston but the team comes in having won 11 straight, while going 9-2 ATS. This pointspread is 'doable,' as 29 of Michigan's 31 victories have come by three points or more. Make Michigan an 8* play. |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Nevada | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 56 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The 30-5 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers and the 29-7 Nevada Wolf Pack will square off at Phillips Arena (South Regional) on Thursday in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers are one of two double-digit seeds to have advanced to the Sweet 16 this year, joining Syracuse (also an 11-seed). Many opined that they have never seen such craziness as this this year's tourney. However, three double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in 12 separate seasons, four double-digit seeds reached the Sweet in 2011 ans a record five double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16 in 1999. Bottom line, the 2018 tourney is hardly unprecedented. Then again, this matchup features something special. It seems as if Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt (a 98-year-old nun) has helped deliver two buzzer-beating wins for Loyola, while Mariah Musselman, the precocious daughter of the Wolf Pack's exuberant coach Eric, has been Nevada's biggest cheerleader during its run to the Sweet 16, after two come-from-behind wins. Loyola-Chicago: 6-6 swingman Donte Ingram's11.5 & 6.4) buzzer-beat Miami-Fl. on Thursday and then Clayton Custer (13.3 & 4.2 APG), the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year, hit the game-winner against third-seeded Tennessee on Saturday. Joining that duo in double digit scoring are SF Jackson (11.1), guard Townes (11.0) and the 6-9 Krutwig, the MVC Freshman of the Year, who checks in at 10.4 & 6.1. The Ramblers shot a blistering 50.6% as a team (3rd in the nation) but average a more modest 71.9 PPG (230th). Defensively, Loyola-Chicago is holding opponents to an average of 62.2 PPG (5th). Nevada: The Wolf Pack overcame a 14-point deficit last Friday to beat No. 10 Texas in overtime 87-83. Then on Sunday, Nevada climbed out of a 22-point hole with about 11 1/2 minutes left to beat No. 2-seed Cincinnati 75-73. The 6-7 Cody Martin led Nevada in the win over Cincinnati, scoring 25 points with six rebounds and seven assists Cody averages 13.9-6.3-4.7 on the season but his 6-7 twin, Caleb, leads the team with 18.8 PPG (5.4 RPG). The 6-7 Jordan Caroline (17.7 & 8.7) and Kendall Stephens, a Purdue transfer, adds 13.4 PPG. Nevada averages 83.0 PPG (16th) but allows 73.2. PPG (193rd).
The pick: It’s been awhile since either school has lasted this long in March. Gene Sullivan’s Loyola team 1985 was led by Alfredrick Hughes and in Nevada’s case it was a Sweet 16 run for Trent Johnson’s best team, featuring Kirk Snyder back in 2004. Some have said that this year's Ramblers remind them a little of past Utah and Saint Louis NCAA qualifiers. That's because there is a link to those past Rick Majerus teams in head coach Porter Moser, who worked as a Majerus aide with the Billikens and whose current team has taken on the best of those Majerus characteristics. Mainly, it’s a commitment to lockdown defense and a patient offense that has not lost its poise in late-game situations in its first two games. However, Nevada offers a unique challenge, with the 6-7 Martin twins and the 6-7 Caroline can create a hellish matchup for slower foes on the blocks. Then again, the Ramblers have won 12 straight and 19 out of their last 20, not to mention the team's money-making 21-9-1 ATS mark on the season. Make Loyola a 10* play. |
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03-21-18 | Northern Colorado v. San Diego -2 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: It's CIT college hoops play from the Jenny Craig Pavilion when the 23-12 Northern Colorado Bears visit the 20-13 San Diego Toreros. The Bears come in off an 81-72 home win versus the Drake Bulldogs that advanced them to the quarterfinals of the CIT. As for the Toreros, they've needed two games to advance this far, although both have been at home. Northern Colorado: The Bears can score, averaging 80.5 PPG (41st) and they advanced with another good offensive effort in the win over Drake. Guard Andre Spight, the team's leading scorer on the season at 21.9 PPG, led with 21 points, connecting on 6-of-11 from three-point range. The 6-9 Tanner Morgan (6.5 & 5.8), the only non-guard among the team's top-seven scorers, added 19 points and eight rebounds. Jordan Davis, second to Spight on the season at 15.7 PPG, delivered a triple-double (12-11-10). The Bears connected of 49.1% as a team but will need to replicate that effort on the road (no easy task). San Diego: The Toreros don't score as well as the Bears, averaging a modest 70.0 PPG but they do play some of the best defense in college basketball, holding opponents to just 66,6 PPG (33rd) on 41.2% shooting (37th). San Diego needed its defense in a tight 67-64 win over Portland State to advance to this game. The Toreros rallied from a nine-point deficit at the half. The team's top playef, the 6-7 Isaiah Pineiro (15.4 & 6.1) did not a great game, scoring 12 points and grabbing six rebounds. However, guards Carter (12.5) and Williams (9.0) each scored 16 points. The 6-7 Neubauer (6.9 & 3.5) added 13 points, including 3-of-6 from long range. PG Wright (13.1 & 5.4 APG), like Pineiro, was a modest contributor (7-6-4). The pick: I'd agree that Northern Colorado may be the slightly better team but the Bears played their final three games of the regular season on the road, then played three tough games on a neutral site in the Big Sky tourney (lost in OT to Montana for an NCAA berth). The team then made a pit stop at home in beating Drake on Mar. 18 in the CIT but now heads back out on the road. The team has played just once at home for a month. San Diego is a strong defensive team (see above), and is also holding opponents to just 30.2% on threes (3rd-best in the nation). The Toreros advanced past Portland St. despite so-so-efforts from their top-two players (Pineiro & Wright). I'll back them here, expecting better efforts form that duo as San Diego gets a third straight home game in this tourney. By the way, San Diego stood toe-to-toe- in this venue against WCC powers Gonzaga (lost 77-72) and St Mary's (lost 65-62).. Make San Diego a 10* play. |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Three of the NIT's four No. 1 seeds are out (only St Mary's remains), as Penn State (a No. 4 seed) will visit the Bradley Center in Milwaukee to take on Marquette (a No. 2 seed). The Nittany Lions opened this tourney with a win over Temple at home and then knocked off top-seeded Notre Dame with a 73-63 victory Saturday at South Bend. Marquette is home for a third straight NIT game, opening with a 67-60 win over Harvard and then playing a much different type of game in eliminating Oregon, 101-92! Both schools were in Madison Square Garden for their respective conference tournaments earlier this month and the winner of this game will punch a "return trip ticket," to New York for a meeting with the winner of the Louisville/Mississippi State game (also played tonight) in the NIT semifinals on March 27. The schools teams have not met since Marquette defeated Penn State 87-79 in the semifinals of the 1995 NIT at Madison Square Garden. Penn State: Sophomore guard Tony Carr rebounded from a career low-tying two-point performance on 1-of-12 shooting against Temple to post his 15th 20-point game this season by scoring 24 points in the win at Notre Dame. Carr leads in scoring (19.5) and assists (4.7), as all five starters average in double digits. Garner (11.1) and Reaves (10.6 & 5.4) share the backcourt with Carr, while a pair of 6-9 players, Stevens (14.7 & 6.1) and Watkins (12.1 & 8.9) have been the starters up front. The problem being, that Watkins has been lost for the season with a knee injury and hasn't played since Feb. 21 (he has missed six straight games). That means more starts for 6-9 freshman John Harrar, who had six rebounds, four points and two blocked shots in 23 minutes against Notre Dame but is averaging only 1.2 & 1.2 on the season. Marquette: After totaling a modest 67 points in a win over Harvard, the Golden Eagles scored 58 points before halftime against the Ducks en route to their best offensive showing of the season. Andrew Rowsey led the charge with 29 points and nine assists. A trio of guards lead the charge for Marquette. Howard leads in points (20.4), with Rowsey right behind him (20.2), while leading the team in assists (4.7). Hauser is a third guard (14.1 & 5.8), with that trio propelling Marquette to average 81.4 PPG (30th). SF Anim (7.7 & 3.0), the 6-7 Cain (4.5 & 3.3) and the 610 Heldt (4.1 & 4.8) patrol the frontcourt. Marquette is a highly efficient offensive team, shooting 47.6% overall (37th), including 41.7% on threes (3rd). The pick: Penn State is off a big win in South Bend over Notre Dame and figures to be somewhat flat here, plus playing without leading rebounder Watkins has to catch up to them. Marquette has an offense to "run anybody out of the gym" (just ask Oregon) and I'll make the Golden Eagles a 10* play in this one. |
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03-18-18 | Florida State +6 v. Xavier | Top | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Xavier Musketeers have been an NCAA-tourney regular for quite some time now but here in 2018, earned the school's first-ever No. 1 (West Regional). Xavier (29-5) looked every bit like a No. 1 seed on Friday, setting a program record for most points in a NCAA Tournament game with its 102-83 victory over Texas Southern. The Seminoles ended the season by losing six of their final 10 down the stretch, but their 20-11 mark was good enough to earn them a second straight tournament appearance and a sixth overall under head coach Leonard Hamilton. FSU picked up its 21st victory of the season on Friday, getting 42 points from its bench and holding a shorthanded Missouri team to 32.7 percent from the floor in a 67-54 win Florida State: The Seminoles opened the season having lost four starters off last year's 26-win team and little was expected. However, FSU began the season 9-0 before a one-point loss to Oklahoma State. FSU features a balanced scoring attack with four guards contributing. Terance Mann (12.8 & 5.6) was the team's highest perimeter scorer, joined dby Angola (12.7), Walker (8.3) and Forrest (7.7 & 4.9 APG). The 6-8 Cofer (13.1 & 5.1) has had a breakout senior year and works up front with the 7-4 Koumadje (7.1 & 4.8) and 6-9 freshman Kabengele (7.3 & 4.7). Ten players scored during the Seminoles' 42-point first half, and all three of Florida State's double-digit scorers Friday came off the bench. Kabengele (team-high 14 points and career-high tying 12 rebounds), sophomore guard Trent Forrest (10 points, six rebounds, eight assists, two blocks and three steals) and junior guard PJ Savoy (12 points) led the change from Florida State's bench. Second-leading scorer Terance Mann needed to be helped back to the locker room in the second half after aggravating a first-half groin injury and is questionable for Sunday. Xavier: The Musketeers have three double digit scores on the season but six others contribute between 4.8 and 8.7 PPG. Xavier is averaging 84.8 PPG (7th) on 49.3% shooting (15th). The 6-6 Trevor Bluiett (19.6 & 5.6) is joined by fellow seniors JP Macura (12.7 & 4.5) and the 6-10 Kanter (10.8 & 4.5) in averaging double digits. Bluiett, who ranks second in Musketeers' history with 2,253 career points and buried three 3-pointers to run his season total to a school-record tying 104, topped the 20-point mark for the 20th time with 26 versus the Tigers. Macura moved into 19th place on the program's all-time scoring list and halted a four-game stretch where he failed to top his season scoring average Friday, going 11-of-16 from the floor to finish with a career-high 29 points. Kerem Kanter (10.8) tied his career high with 24 points despite playing only 20 minutes Friday (note: over the last 22 games, he has reached double figures in every game in which he has played more than 12 minutes!). The pick: The Musketeers can tie their school record for wins in a season with a victory on Sunday over the Seminoles.In last year's tourney, Xavier stunned third-seeded Florida State last year in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 55.6 percent from the floor in a 91-66 rout of the Seminoles behind 29 points from Trevon Bluiett. Now, a year to the day after that upset, the Seminoles get their chance at payback. This is likely Hamilton's best offensive team, as FSU is averaging 81.3 PPG (31st) on 47.3% shooting (46th). If Mann is out or less than 100 percent, FSU will miss him. However, the Seminoles have solid depth and can score with Xavier. "All season, our identity was the quality of our depth. We knew they were a little short on the bench, so we needed to attack them … we used that to our advantage," freshman forward Mfiondu Kabengele told reporters after the win over Missouri. Revenge works when the matchups are right. Take the points and make FSU a 10* play. |
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03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County +10.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Maryland-Baltimore County: Graduate student guard Jairus Lyles was simply unstoppable for the Retrievers, scoring 23 of his game-high 28 while playing through leg cramps in the second frame. He tops UMBC in scoring at 20.4 PPG (adds 5.5 RPG and 3,5 APG) and is joined by three other double digit scorers. Guard Maura (11.3 & 5.2 APG) is the second-leading scorer and top assist man, while two forwards, the 6-6 Sherburne (11.0 & 3.9) and the 6-5 Lamar (10.5 & 5.9) complement the team's two guards. Lyles was the unquestioned star against UVa but it was a true team effort. Sherburne had 14 points, Arkel Lamar 12 and K.J. Maura had 10. UMBC had 16 assists on 26 made field goals while outrebounding Virginia 33-22. Kansas Sttae: The Wildcats are awaiting the Retrievers. They've been led this season led by the 6-10 Wade (16.5 & 6.3) and guard Brown (16.0-3.2-3.4). Barry Brown led the Wildcats with 18 points and played strong defense on Marcus Foster, holding the star Bluejays guard to just five points on 2-of-11 shooting. However, Kansas State had to play without All-Big 12 First Team selection Dean Wade, who suffered a stress fracture in his left foot in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals. Without Wade's team-high 16.5 PPG, the team's defense stepped up, holding the Bluejays to a season low-tying 59 points on 33.8 percent shooting from the floor and 26.5 percent from the three-point line. Freshman guard Mike McGuirl stepped up offensively in Wade's absence, scoring a career-high 17 on 6-of-10 shooting and 3-of-5 from beyond the arc. The pick: Wade hasn't been ruled out for Sunday but he will be limited if he does play. KSU can't expect McGuirl to come through with another 17-point effort, as he's played in just nine games and averaged 3.3 PPG in less than 10 minutes per. Cinderella teams typically falter off a huge upset but UMBC is livin' large! The Retrievers finished second in the America East regular season and earned their NCAA berth berth with an incredible last-second three by Lyles in the tournament championship win at Vermont. Then the team broke an 0-for-135 drought by No. 16 seeds over a No. 1 seed, so what's the big deal here? Kansas State is a solid team but surely is nothing special and what's more, its leading scorer may not play. Throw in the fact that Kansas State is also just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games and why not take UMBC and the points" Make UMBC an 8* play. |
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03-18-18 | Clemson v. Auburn -1 | Top | 84-53 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: A Clemson/Auburn matchup would be a really big deal in football (Tigers vs. Tigers). However, the two schools square off Sunday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville with the winner advancing to the Sweet 16 out of the Midwest Region. Clemson hadn’t won an NCAA tournament game since a First Four victory over UAB in 2011 and it hadn’t reached the second round since making a trip to the Sweet Sixteen in 1997. However, Clemson took down New Mexico State 79-68 on Friday. Auburn is in the Big Dance for the first time since 2003, when it made a run to the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 10 seed. Auburn survived a scare in a 62-58 win over College of Charleston in its opener on Friday, setting up this Tigers vs. Tigers matchup on the hardwood, with the winner becoming a Sweet 16 team. Clemson: Guards Shelton Mitchell scored 23 points and Gabe DeVoe added 22 in the Tigers' 79-68 first-round victory over New Mexico State. However, fellow guard Redd (15.9-4.7-3.4) leads Clemson in scoring on the season. DeVoe (13.5 & 4.6) and Mitchell (12.3-2.9-3.1) are right behind him. Clemson now relies even more on its guard paly, as the 6-8 Grantham (14.2 & 6.9) was lost for the season back in late January. The 6-9 Thomas (10.6 & 8.) is now joined in the starting frontcourt by the 6-8 Skara, who adds just 3.0 & 2.6. Clemson's D is among the best, allowing 65.9 PPG (29th) on 41.0% shooting (33rd). Auburn: These Tigers won the SEC regular-season title but stumbled a bit down the stretch, losing three of their last five going into the conference tournament, where they fell to Alabama in their first game. Their offensive struggles continued against the Cougars, as they shot below 40 percent for the fourth straight contest. Leading scorer Mustapha Heron (16.6 & 5.5) scored 16 points and SF Desean Murray (10.4, & 6.8) recorded a characteristic 11 points along with seven rebounds. However, Bryce Brown, who checks in right behind Heron at 16.0 PPG, struggled in going 3-for-10 from three-point range. Auburn shot just 35.6 percent from the floor plus was an ugly 15-of-32 on FTs, but still advanced. Helping the cause was Auburn forcing Charleston into a season-high 21 turnovers, about double its average. The pick: Both teams are short on size after losing starting big men to injury during the season. Clemson’s Grantham tore his ACL in January while Auburn’s Anfernee McLemore (7.4 & 5,3) broke his left leg the following month. Both have persevered with strong guard play. The win over Charleston gave Auburn eight straight NCAA opening round wins. That's tied with Syracuse for the fourth-longest streak, as only North Carolina (16), Kansas (11) and Gonzaga (10) have more. Is it time to advance a step further this time around? My vote (bet) is Y-E-S, as Auburn is averaging 82.7 PPG (18th). Party like it's 2003 and make Auburn an 8* play. |
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03-17-18 | Houston v. Michigan -3 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan came into this tourney as a No. 3 seed, after winning a second straight Big Ten tourney title in Madison Garden. The Wolverines allowed the third-fewest points in their NCAA Tournament history in a 61-47 win over No. 14 seed Montana on Thursday to move to 29-7 on the season. They will now try to reach 30 wins for the first time since 2012-13, by putting the defensive clamps on the sixth-seed Houston Cougars in a second round game of the West Regional on Saturday in Wichita, Kn. 27-7. Houston rode Rob Gray's hot hand to a thrilling 67-65 win against 11th-seeded San Diego State on Thursday, earning the school's first NCAA Tournament victory in 34 years. Houston: Head coach Kelvin Sampson is one of just 14 coaches to take four schools (Washington State, Oklahoma, Indiana, Houston) to the NCAA Tournament, as.Houston has produced one of its best seasons in decades. Gray exploded for a career-high 39 points against the Aztecs, including the go-ahead layup with 1.1 seconds remaining in the game. He hopes to lead the Cougars to their first Sweet 16 appearance since the days of Phi Slamma Jamma in 1983-84. Gray leads the Cougars with 19.2 points and 4.4 assists, while senior forward Devin Davis adds 10.7 points and a team-best 6.2 rebounds. Junior Corey Davis Jr. contributes 13.4 points while shooting 43.0 percent from the three-point line and sophomore Armoni Brooks - the American Athletic Conference's Sixth Man of the Year - adds 9.5 points and shoots 42.1 percent beyond the arc. Michigan: The Wolverines are coming off a grind-it-out 61-47 win on Thursday over Montana, a game which saw the Wolverines take control after falling behind 10-0 to start. "I love the way they stayed composed during that time," Michigan head coach John Beilein said. "The first four-minute timeout, the first one, it didn't look good for Michigan at that time. I told them all we need is one basket here, and then let's win the next four minutes. And we did that. And let's win the next four minutes, and we did that. And all of a sudden we're ahead at the half." The 6-11 Wagner leads Michigan in scoring (14.3) and rebounding (7.1) and is joined in the starting lineup up front by the 6-7 Livers, although he contributes little with 3.8 & 2.3. Beilein starts three guards in Matthews (12.8 & 5.6), Abur-Rahkman (12.6-3.9-3.3) and Simpson (7.4 & 3.6 APG). A fourth guard, Robinson (9.5), is a major contributor to the rotation. the pick: This game is a battle between not only two scorching hot teams (Michigan has won 10 straight and Houston 11 of 13), but also between two of the stiffest defensively in the country. Michigan allows 63.1 PPG (8th) and enters the game No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency, while Houston allows 64.9 PPG (19th) and is No. 15 in defensive efficiency. Michigan's sophomore guard Zavier Simpson will be matched defensively against Houston's senior guard Rob Gray. These are two tenacious players who haven't backed down from anyone this season and the winner of this matchup could determine the game's winner. I'm pretty much sold on the Wolverines, who have gone 9-1 ATS during their 10-game winning streak and note that Beilein has led the Wolverines into the Sweet 16 in three of their previous four tournament appearances. Make that four in five. Michigan is the 8* play. |
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03-17-18 | Florida +2 v. Texas Tech | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up:The Florida Gators scored 25 points off 18 turnovers en route to Ta 77-62 first-round triumph over St. Bonaventure on Thursday. Florida is the East's No. 6 seed and will take its 21-12 record into Saturday's second round game against the 25-9 and third-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. Tech was 22-4 before star guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury in a Feb. 17 loss to Baylor. The Red Raiders lost their final four games of February but after rallying to beat Stephen F. Austin 70-60 , Texas Tech is 25-9 (most wins since a school-record 30-2 season in 1995-96). There's not much to separate the Red Raiders and Gators, as both finished the regular season in the top-25 (Texas Tech at No. 14 and Florida at No. 23) and clawed their way near the top of their highly-rated conferences.Texas Tech tied for second in the Big 12 and Florida finished third in the SEC. Florida: The Gators could use another strong defensive performance when they face the Red Raiders. "That's what got us going," senior guard Chris Chiozza told reporters. "We got some stops early in the second half and we got out running and got some easy baskets in transition, and we just kind of built momentum from there and was able to maintain it for most of the second half." Chiozza and junior guard KeVaughn Allen were credited for slowing the Bonnies' talented guards. A third guard, junior Jalen Hudson leads four Gators in double figures with 15.3 PPG, while graduate transfer Egor Koulechov, the fourth guard in the starting lineup, adds 13.8 PPG plus a team-high 6.5 rebounds. Chiozza (11.1 PPG and a team-high 6.2 APG) and Allen both average 11.1 PPG. The 6-9 Hayes (4.8 & 5.0) is the lone frontcourt starter, backed up by the 6-8 Stone (8.9 & 4.2). Texas Tech: Keenan Evans led the team in scoring on the season at 17.7 PPG and has averaged 21.0 points in the Red Raiders’ four games in March. He led the team with 25 points against SF Austin and is joined by freshmen Jarrett Culver (11.5 & 4.7) and Zhaire Smith (11.1 & 4.7) in double figures on the season. Tech is an outstanding defensive team, allowing 64.6 PPG (15th) on 40.3% shooting (14th). The Red Raiders are plus-4.4 in rebound margin and have eight players averaging at least three rebounds per game. and force 15.1 turnovers. The pick: Texas Tech is trying to reach the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2005, while Florida has won two national championships, as well as making seven trips to the Elite Eight in that span. As Evans goes, so go the Red Raiders. Tech is 12-1 this season when Evans scores at least 20 points. However, Texas Tech had its hands full getting past the Lumberjacks, who led by as many as eight points early in the second half and stayed in front or tied until Texas Tech finished the game on a 13-2 run in the final four minutes. I don't believe Tech will be so lucky in this one. Make Florida an 8* play. |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kentucky Wildcats opened the season as the AP's No. 5 team but with a 10-8 SEC record, came into the conference tourney as just the fourth seed. However, the Wildcats cruised past Georgia 62-49 to notch their 11th consecutive win against the Bulldogs and then delivered an 86-63 victory over Alabama in the semifinals, their sixth victory in the last seven games (after losing four straight). Kentucky then took out Tennessee 77-72 in the championship game to win its fourth straight SEC tourney title. The Wildcats picked up their 25th win of the season (against 10 losses) in Thursday's first-round 78-73 win over a game Davidson team in 5 vs.12 matchup. Kentucky expected to meet the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats in the second round but instead will face the 13th-seeded Buffalo Bulls (out of the MAC), who shocked Arizona by winning 89-68. The Bulls have won seven in a row and come in with a record of 27-8. Buffalo: The 13th-seeded Buffalo pulled off Thursday's biggest upset, outscoring Arizona 49-30 in the second half on its way to a 21-point win. Buffalo (27-8) shredded Arizona's defense with its quickness, getting to the lane for shots at the rim and kickouts to shooters (Buffalo connected on 54.8% of its shots). Defensively, the Bulls pressured Arizona's guards and collapsed around its big men in the lane, forcing the Wildcats to the perimeter. Arizona couldn't convert, going 2 for 18 from beyond the arc, compared to the Bulls knocking down 15 of 30. PG Clark led with 25 points and seven assists. He's one of four Buffalo players averaging 15.0-plus PPG on the season (15.0-3.6-5.4). He's joined by fellow guards Massinburg (16.9 & 7.3) and Harris (15.6 & 6.0) plus the 6-8 Perkins (16.5 & 6.1). Buffalo is averaging 84.9 PPG (6th). Kentucky: John Calipari's team is again, packed with freshman. 6-9 freshman Kevin Knox shared the conference freshman of the year honors with Alabama's Sexton, and leads the etam at 15.9 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG). Freshman PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (14.0-4.1-5.1) is the team's second-leading scorer, followed by 6-7 freshman Washington (10.6 & 5.4) plus freshman guards Diallo (9.9) and Green (9.5). This year's team is not as high-scoring as Calipari teams of the past and beat Davidson without making a single three-point shot (can't make that up!). That snapped a streak of 1,047 games (which had been best in the nation) with a three-pointer, a mark that began way back in 1988. However, Kentucky shot 51.0% overall in the game, led by Knox's 25 points and Gilgeous-Alexander's 19. Defensively, Kentucky is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.0% on threes, 4th-best in the nation The pick: This is a matchup of one of CBB's "blue-bloods" and a no-name MAC entry. Buffalo can play (just ask Arizona) but Calipari's team is hitting its stride, entering having won eight of its last nine. Buffalo's great win over Arizona will have to do for one of the NCAA's latest 'Cinderella' teams. Kentucky opened as the AP's No. 5 team, while Buffalo was coming off a 17-15 season. Could anyone ever had imagined back in November that these two would meet in the second round of an NCAA tourney game and that Kentucky would only be about a 'TD' favorite? Make Kentucky a 10* play. |
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03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke -9.5 | Top | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The No. 7 Rhode Island Rams won one of the more exciting games on Thursday, edging No. 10 Oklahoma and freshman sensation Trae Young 83-78 in OT. E.C. Matthews led with 16 points and Jared Terrell, the team's leading scorer this season, added 13 points and five assists. Down the stretch, some clutch defense allowed the Rams to win an NCAA tourney game for the second straight season under head coach Dan Hurley. A win on Saturday would allow Rhode Island to advance to the school's first Sweet 16 berth in 20 years. However, for that to happen, the seventh-seeded Rams will need to get past the second-seeded Blue Devils who just took care of Iona 89-67. The Blue Devils outrebounded Iona 39-29 and outscored the Gaels in the paint 46-30. Rhode Island: Freshman Fatts Russell, who is averaging just 7.0 PPG this season, came off the bench to shine opposite the Sooners' Trae Young. He finished with 15 points in 21 minutes. The 6-9 Cyril Langevine (6.2 & 5.9) posted his fifth double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 rebounds, also coming off the bench. Dan Hurley's team is well-rounded and its starting-five delivers excellent balance. Guard Jared Terrell is the leading scorer (17.0), followed by Matthews (13.2 & 4.0). PG Dowtin adds 9.6 PPG and 5.5 APG plus a fourth guard, Stanford Robinson (9.0 & 5.7) is a defensive specialist. The 6-8 Berry (8.9 & 3.9) is the fifth starter. The Rams play outstanding defense, allowing 68.2 PPG (68th). Duke: Not many teams have been able to slow Marvin Bagley down this season and Iona was no different, as he scored 22 points. Three others scored at least 16 points, led by PG Duval's 19 (he also had eight assists). The freshman PG averages 10.2 & 5.6 APG on the season. Senior Grayson Allen (15.7-3.5-4.6) and freshman Gary Trent Jr. (14.3 & 4.2) each had 16. The 6-9 Carter, who averages 13.6 & 9.3 was held to just 9 & 8. Duke shot 53.7 percent from the floor and will test Rhode Island's defense, as the Blue Devils are averaging 84.8 PPG (7th) on 49.5% shooting (14th). The pick: Duke has won each of the previous four meetings between the two schools, including twice in the tournament (1978 and 1988). The team's met just last year in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off tournament, as Duke won 75-65. The Rams are a modest 5-4 SU (3-6 ATS) since losing at St. Bonny's (loss ended a school-record 16-game winning streak) , while the Blue Devils are 8-2 SU & ATS their last 10. Is beating Oklahoma (Sooners ended the season on a 4-12 SU & 3-13 ATS run) really a big deal? I think not. Make Duke a 10* play |
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03-16-18 | Florida State -1 v. Missouri | Top | 67-54 | Win | 100 | 79 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite the loss of heralded freshman Michael Porter Jr. (Blue Ribbon's Newcomer of the Year) to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 with a 20-12 overall record. The Tigers are the eighth-seed in the Wst region and will face the No. 9 seed Florida State Seminoles on Friday night a first round game played at Nashville, Tn. The Seminoles ended the season by losing six of their final 10 down the stretch, but their 20-11 mark was good enough to earn them a second straight tournament appearance and a sixth overall under head coach Leonard Hamilton. Florida State: The Seminoles opened the season having lost four starters off last year's 26-win team and little was expected. However, FSU began the season 9-0 before a one-point loss to Oklahoma State. FSU features a balanced scoring attack with three players averaging between 13.2 and 12.9 points, a trio led by guard Terance Mann (13.2 & 5.7). The others are teh 6-8 Cofer (13.1 & 5.1) and guard Angola (19.-3.8-3.0), Three more players contribute between 7.6 and 8.5 PPG plus big men like the 7-4 Koumadje (7. 4 & 4.7) and the 6-9 Kabengele (7.1 & 4.5) add muscle up front. This is likely Hamilton's best offensive team, as FSU is averaging 81.8 PPG (29th) on 47.4% shooting (43rd). Missouri: The 6-10 Porter is still considered an NBA lottery pick and returned from back surgery in time to appear in the SEC Tournament in last Thursday's 62-60 loss to Georgia (he scored 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting). However, Missouri will have to play without suspended 6-7 forward Jordan Barnett, the team's second-leading scorer (13.7 points per game) who was arrested for DWI on Saturday. "He's suspended as we speak. He won't play Friday," first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin told reporters Sunday before adding that Barnett could potentially return if the Tigers advance to the second round. Senior Kassius Robertson leads the team with 16.2 PPG while freshman Jontay Porter - Michael's 6-11 brother - is the top rebounder (6.8) and averaged 21 points on 69 percent shooting over his last three contests (10.1 PPG on the season). The pick: Cuonzo Martin has done an excellent job at Missouri in his first year at the school but the Tigers last won a game in the Round of 64 game back in 2010 (Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games). Barnett (also 5.9 RPG) will be missed and Michael Porter's game is far from 100 percent. Missouri is the far better defensive team (68.1 PPG allowed ranks 67th) but despite its recent troubles, I believe FSU can (and will) outscore Missouri. Make FS a 10* play. |
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03-16-18 | Georgia State +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -107 | 71 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The second-seeded 30-4 Cincinnati Bearcats enter the NCAA Tournament with seven straight wins, including a 56-55 triumph over Houston in Sunday’s AAC conference title game. Cincy enters the Big Dance with back-to-back 30-victory seasons, the first time in school history that has happened. Cincy opens NCAA tourney play with the 24-10 and 15th-seeded Georgia State Panthers. Georgia State captured its second Sun Belt Conference title in the past four seasons with Sunday's 74-61 victory over Texas-Arlington. Georgia State: After losing four of five late in the season, the Panthers enter the Big Dance on a four-game winning streak. Sophomore guard D’Marcus Simonds, the Sun Belt player of the year, averages 21.1 PPG on the season. Senior guard Isaiah Williams, who scored 21 points in the semifinal victory over Georgia Southern as Simonds was saddled with foul trouble, is 9-of-18 from three-point range in his past four games. However, he is averaging only 7.3 PPG on the season. Fellow guard Mitchell checks in at 12.2 PPG plus two 6-5 forwards, Thomas (10.7 & 4,3) and Benlevi (9.6 & 6.5), join the 6-8 Sessions (7.7 & 6.1) up front. Cincinnati: The Bearcats were known for their defense under Huggins and the same is true under Mick Cronin. Cincy ranks second in points allowed (57.1) and in defensive FG percentage (37.0) 6-8 senior forward Gary Clark averaged 16.3 points per game during the AAC Tournament, shooting 57.7 percent from the floor in three games and leads team with 13.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG on the season. The 6-9 Kyle Washington (11.3 & 5.4) has reached double figures in 10 of his past 13 games, averaging 12.2 points during that stretch while shooting 52.8 percent from the floor. The Bearcats feature a solid guard trio in Evans (12.9-4.6-3.2), Cumberland (10.9-3.4-2.9) and Broome (8.2). The pick: The Bearcats have limited 23 of their opponents to less than 40 percent shooting from the floor and in 23 games, have held opponents to 60 or fewer points this season. However, Georgia State is no slouch on defense, holding opponents to 67.3 PPG (51st) on 39.3% shooting (6th). It's hard not to notice that the Bearcats were back to playing games in the 50s and 60s in the AAC tourney, content to let the defense dictate tempo. Meanwhile, the team's top-score entering the tourney, Jacob Evans, was in a shooting slump in Orlando, making just 25% from the floor in three games. Georgia State has won its NCAA opener in its past two tournament appearances, beating Wisconsin in 2001 and Baylor in 2015. Another upset here? Not likely but take the big points and make the Panthers an 8* play. |
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03-16-18 | Marshall v. Wichita State -11 | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: 25-7 Wichita State lost to Houston 77-74 in the American Athletic Conference Tournament semifinals Saturday but begins its journey in the NCAA Tournament as a No.4 seed and will meet No. 13 Marshall on Friday in the first round of the East Region in San Diego. The Shockers are coached by former Marshall assistant Gregg Marshall, marking the first time in NCAA Tournament history that a school's name matches the opposing coach's last name. Wichita State boasts a veteran team which reached the Sweet 16 in 2015 and 2016, before losing to Kentucky in the second round in 2017. As for teh The Thundering Herd, they upset Western Kentucky 67-66 on Saturday to win the C-USA Tournament and will ride a four-game winning streak into their first NCAA Tournament since 1987 with a record of 24-10. Marshall: Head coach Dan D’Antoni, brother of Houston Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni, told reporters. “It’s been a long time coming and Marshall basketball kind of fell off.'' PG Jon Elmore led C-USA in scoring (22.8 points) and assists (6.9). Fellow guard C.J. Burks averaged 20.5 PPG, helping the Thundering Herd average a conference-best 84.4 PPG (12th nationally). That said, no one should overlook 6-8 Ajdin Penava (15.5 & 8.6), who was named C-USA Tournament MVP after averaging 17 points and 8.3 rebounds in the three games. However, an issue for Marshall is the fact that it allows 78.8 PPG, ranking 321st of 351 Division I teams. Wichita State: Sophomore guard Landry Shamet averages a team-best 15,0 PPG and an AAC-best 5.1 assists. 6-8 senior forward Shaquille Morris has been a force in the middle, averaging 14.0 points and 5.5 rebounds, both career highs. He comes into the Big Dance averaging 16.8 points over his last nine games. 6-9 senior forward Darral Willis Jr. (10.4 & 6.0) and senior guard Conner Frankamp (10.1 points) are also playing their final NCAA Tournaments. 6-8 junior forward Markis McDuffie is averaging 8.5 & 3.2, guard Reaves 8.3 PPG and the 6-7 Kelly, 5.7 PPG but a team-high 7.5 RPG. The pick: Marshall can score but so can the efficient Shockers, who average 83.0 PPG (19th), on 47.8% shooting (33rd). Wichita State got shipped 1,363 miles away to San Diego but the Shockers are deep AND experienced. Marshall's first NCAA trip since 1987 ends after one game. Lay the points and make Wichita State an 8* play. |
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03-16-18 | Providence +3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Providence Friars (No. 10 seed) are in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive season and will meet No. 7 seed Texas A&M in the West Region on Friday in Charlotte, N.C. Providence finished in a three-way tie for third in the Big East (10-8), before playing in three straight overtime games in the conference tournament, including a loss to Villanova in the championship game on Saturday. The Aggies reached the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons, overcoming an 0-5 start in SEC play to finish 9-9 and tied for seventh with Mississippi State. A&M then lost on a buzzer-beater to Alabama in the team's conference tournament opener but still got a 7-seed with a 20-12 record (A&M opened the 2017-18 season at 11-1). Providence: The 21-13 Friars feature three double digit scorers in 6-8 senior Rodney Bullock (14.0 & 5.8), 6-7 sophomore guard Alpha Diallo (13.0 & 6.6) and senior PG Kyron Cartwright (11.8 & 5.4 APG). Diallo is coming off his sixth double-double of the season, posting 22 points and 10 rebounds in the overtime loss to Villanova. He played well while the Friars went 3-3 against Villanova and Xavier this season, a positive sign considering those conference foes earned top seeds for this tournament.Providence averages 73.7 PPG but also allows 72.7. Texas A&M; Tyler Davis, the team's 6-10 center led in scoring () and was second in rebounding this season (8.8) but he was held to single digits in the loss to Alabama on Thursday, although for just the fifth time thi season. Guard Admon Gilder (12.2 & 4.2) and the 6-9 DJ Hogg (11.3 & 5.2) were all key members of the Texas A&M team that reached the Sweet 16 two years ago. The 6-10 Williams adds 10.3 RPG and a team-high 9.0 RPG, while guard Starks chips in 9.0 PPG. The pick: The Aggies' good size of Davis (6-10), Hogg (6-9) and Williams (6-10) could pose problems for Providence but after that 11-1 start, A&M has gone just 9-11 SU and 8-12 ATS in its last 20 games. A&M was part of an SEC-record eight teams to make the NCAA Tournament but none were seeded higher than No. 3 Tennessee in the South Region. A&M can be had and Providence sure got battle-tested with three consecutive OT games in the Big East tourney, including overcoming a 17-point deficit in knocking off No. 1 seeded Xavier, then nearly erased an 11-point deficit in a hard-fought 76-66 OT loss to Villanova in the title game. SEC favorites are only 13-18-2 ATS in the Big Dance since 2013, while Ed Cooley’s Friars team went a money-making 9-2 ATS its last 11 as a single-digit underdog! Make Providence an 8* play. |
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03-15-18 | San Diego State +4 v. Houston | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 70 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: An injury to its best player cost Texas Tech a chance to win the Big 12 regular-season and/or the conference tourney tournament title but the Red Raiders did earn a favorable NCAA Tournament draw. Texas Tech earned a No. 3 seed in the East region and will get to play in Dallas on Thursday and again on Saturday, if it advances. Texas Tech enters the tourney 24-9 on the season and ranked 14th in the final regular season poll by the AP. The Red Raiders will face 14th-seeded and in-state foe Stephen F. Austin on Thursday. The Lumberjacks enter the NCAA Tournament, the school's fourth appearance in the last five years, with 10 wins in the their last 11 games, including a 59-55 upset win over top-seeded Southeast Louisiana in the Southland championship game, as the league's third-seed. SF Austin: Forward T.J. Holyfield closed the Southland Tournament with consecutive double-doubles and has averaged 13.0 points and a team-best 6.4 rebounds per game. Guards Shannon Bogues (15.4 points) and Kevon Harris (14.6 & 5.4) also average double figures with the Harris shooting a team-best 43.2 percent from three-point range, which ranked second in the Southland. This is a good offensive team, averaging 81.1 PPG (3th) on 48.8% shooting (20th). The Lumberjacks also can play a little D, allowing 68.1 PPG (69th). Texas Tech: Chris Beard’s Red Raiders finished second in the Big 12 behind perennial champion Kansas and beat Texas 73-69 in their Big 12 Tournament opener before falling to third-seeded West Virginia 66-63 in the semifinals. It's the school's first 20-win season in 11 years and its most wins since a school-record 30-2 season in 1995-96. It also will be the second NCAA Tournament appearance in the last decade for the Red Raiders. The Red Raiders started 14-1 and were 22-4 a little more than a month later when they climbed to No. 6 in the national polls – the high-water mark in program history. However, Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury in a Feb. 17 loss to Baylor and totaled only 12 points in the school’s final four games in February, including a Feb. 26 contest at West Virginia where he sat out entirely, contributing heavily to Texas Tech’s four-game tailspin entering March. Evans led the team in scoring on the season at 17.5 PPG and has averaged 20.3 points in the Red Raiders’ three games since. He is joined by freshmen Jarrett Culver (11.7 & 4.8) and Zhaire Smith (11.2 & 4.7) in double figures on the season. Tech is an outstanding defensive team, allowing 64.3 PPG (18th) on 40.3% shooting (15th). The pick: I noted at the top that Tech is happy to be playing in Dallas but I must add that Stephen F Austin is actually about 200 miles closer to the Metroplex from its Nacodoches base. Texas Tech has won eight of the nine meetings over the last 21 years but the two schools haven’t met since 2011. SF Austin more than held its own in three close games at SEC venues (close losses at Miss. State & Mizzou plus a win at LSU). Throw in the fact that in two of their last three NCAA tourney appearances, the Lumberjacks have notched first-round upsets as a 13th and 12th seed, respectively, beating West Virginia (70-56 in 2016) and VCU (77-75 in 2014). SF Austin is the very definition of a 'live dog!' Take the points and make them a 10* play. |
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03-15-18 | NC State +2.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 83-94 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It's an 8-9 matchup in the first-round of the Midwest Region from Wichita, Kn. on Thursday, as eighth-seeded Seton Hall (21-11) takes on ninth-seeded North Carolina State (21-11). The Wolfpack and Pirates each had successful regular seasons but both are coming off early losses in their conference tournaments, with N.C. State losing to Boston College 91-87 in its first ACC tournament game and Seton Hall being upset by Butler 75-74 in its opening game at the Big East Conference tournament. Seton Hall has lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two seasons and hasn't won a tournament game since 2004. N.C. State is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. NC State: the Wolpack were coming off back-to-back 16 and 15-win seasons and were picked 12th in an ACC preseason poll. However, the team figured things out in its first season under coach Kevin Keatts. Guard Allerik Freeman was a graduate transfer and was the team's leading scorer at 15.4 PPG. 7-0 center Omer Yurtseven (13.8 & 6.8) and guatrd Tori Dorin (13.8 & 6.1) check in as double digit scorers as well, while five others averaged between 5.4 and 8.8 PPG (that group includes PG Johnson, who is averaging 7.4). NC State pushes the pace, averaging 81.2 PPG (32nd) on 47.0% shooting (59th). Seton Hall: The Pirates are a veteran team that features four senior starters, including Khadeen Carrington (14.9 & 4.5 APG) and leading scorer Desi Rodriguez who averages 17.8 points and 4.9 rebounds. And then there's senior center Angel Delgado (13.3 & 11.6), the Big East's all-time leader in rebounds and just the second player in history to lead the Big East in rebounding in three different seasons. But don't forget sophomore guard Myles Powell who was named the Big East Most Improved Player after averaging 15.4 points per game, second-most on the team.Seton Hall is a solid offensive team, as well (79.0 PPG ranks 57th). The pick: Seton Hall's loss in the Big East quarterfinal was a heartbreaker, as Carrington converted a three-point play with 11 seconds to play, giving the Pirates a one-point lead, However, Butler's Tyler Wideman scored on a putback with four seconds remaining to give the Bulldogs the win. One wonders just how the Pirates will play here. Uptempo NC State wants an open court game and I think the Wolfpack will win a contest like that. Keatts was a high school coach just a few years ago but has led his team to the NCAA tourney, something Mark Gottfried couldn’t do with Dallas Mavericks star Dennis Smith Jr. on the roster last year. Also, the Wolfpack have notched noteworthy wins over Arizona, Duke, Clemson & North Carolina,. Make NC State an 8* play. |
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03-15-18 | South Dakota State +8 v. Ohio State | Top | 73-81 | Push | 0 | 66 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Ohio State (No. 5 seed) against South Dakota State (No. 12 seed) meet in a first-round West Regional matchup Thursday in Boise, Idaho. Yes, Ohio State owns the higher seed and the more recognizable name but South Dakota State has more recent NCAA Tournament experience on its ledger entering this contest. The Buckeyes earned an at-large bid out of the Big Ten with their 24-8 record and will be making their 28th Big Dance appearance overall but their first since 2015 under former coach Thad Matta. Meanwhile, the 28-6 Jackrabbits captured an automatic NCAA bid by winning the Summit League tourney, afterfinishing first in the conference with a 13-1 league record during the regular season. It will be the third straight NCAA Tournament appearance for the Jackrabbits and fifth in the last seven seasons for the program which moved up to the Division I level in just 2005. South Dakota State: The Jackrabbits are guided by second-year coach T.J. Otzelberger, won their 11th straight game with a 97-87 victory over South Dakota in the Summit League championship game. 6-9 junior forward Mike Daum is the team's best player, leading in scoring (23.8) and rebounding (10.4). Freshman guard David Jenkins Jr. (16.1) and 6-7 Reed Tellinghuisen (12.0 & 4.7) also average in double figures for South Dakota State, while a third guard King, averaged 9.3 PPG and 5.5 RPG. South Dakota State ranks sixth nationally in averaging 84.9 PPG and and shoots 40.3 percent as a team from three-point range (12th nationally). Ohio State: The Buckeyes have had a stronger-than-expected season under new coach Chris Holtmann (via Butler), finishing in a tie for second in the Big Ten at 15-3 before getting upended by Penn State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. That 69-68 loss March 2 in New York was the third defeat in five games for Ohio State, which boasts four double-digit scorers, led by 6-7 junior forward Keita Bates-Diop, the Big Ten’s Player of the Year, who averages 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds. SF Jae’Sean Tate (12.5 & 6.2) points), point guard C.J. Jackson (12.2-3.8-3.9) and freshman forward Kaleb Wesson (10.8 & 5.2) also average double digits. The pick: The Ohio State roster only features seven combined games of NCAA Tournament experience and two combined starts, both by Tate. However, Holtmann guided Butler to the Big Dance in each of his three seasons as the Bulldogs’ coach. Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits are in the NCAA field for the third consecutive year and fifth time in the past seven seasons. They've won 19 of their last 20 games but are looking for their first NCAA Tournament win (South Dakota State is 0-4 all-time in NCAA Tournament play). We all know that a No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed in nine of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments and 12s have won 11 of the last 24 such first-round matchups overall. The Jackrabbits have covered as an underdog in pre-conference games away from home vs. Iowa, Buffalo, Ole Miss & Wichita State, while narrowly failing to cover as a 4 1/2-point underdog in 112-103 double OT loss at Colorado. The Jackrabbits have covered three consecutive as an underdog in the Round of 64. After suffering first-round losses to Gonzaga and Maryland as a 16th and 12th seeds, respectively, the last two seasons, "the third time may just be the charm." Take the points and make South Dakota State an 8* play. |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -104 | 63 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma was a highly-controversial selection by the NCAA Tournament, as after a great 2017 part to the current season (Sooners were 12-1 as of Jan. 3, including three wins over ranked teams), Oklahoma went 6-12 (4-11 last 15 after getting bounced from the Big 12 Tournament in the first round) the rest of the way. However, the 18-13 Sooners not only made the field but garnered a No. 10 seed. Oklahoma will meet No. 7 Rhode Island on Thursday in the Midwest Region in Pittsburgh. The 25-7 Rams were the Atlantic 10 regular-season champions (15-3) but were unable to capture a second straight Atlantic 10 Tournament title, losing 58-57 last Sunday to Davidson. Oklahoma: Freshman Trae Young led the nation in scoring (27.4) and assists (8.8) for this Lon Kruger-coached team that averaged 85.2 PPG (4th). However, while everyone knows what Young can do, it's the rest of the team that will decide if the Sooners can advance out of the first round. Junior guard Christian James (12.1 & 4.3) had been solid with seven straight games in double figures before going scoreless in the Sooner's 71-60 loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament. 6-9 freshman Brady Manek (10.4 & 5.1) is the only other player averaging in double figures for Kruger but he has only scored more than nine points once in the past seven games. Rhode Island: Redshirt senior E.C. Matthews recorded 20 points and eight rebounds but the Rams lost their second low-scoring game to Davidson in the last two weeks in the Atlantic 10 final. Dan Hurley's team is well-rounded and its starting-five delivers excellent balance. Guard Jared Terrell is the leading scorer (17.2), followed by Matthews (13.1). PG Dowtin adds 9.7 PPG and 5.5 APG plus a fourth guard, Stanford Robinson (9.1 & 5.7) is a defensive specialist. The 6-8 Berry (9.0 & 3.9) is the fifth starter and the 6-9 Langevine (5.9 & 5.7) makes solid contributions off the bench. Rhode Island averages almost 10 points less than Oklahoma at 76.2 PPG. However, the Rams play outstanding defense, allowing 67.9 PPG (61st). The pick: Young certainly helped the Sooners get this berth, as they are the only team in the field, excluding First Four teams, to make it with fewer than 19 victories. Sure, Oklahoma is a controversial pick and not only did the Sooners go 4-11 SU down the stretch, they were also a money-burning 3-12 ATS in that stretch. However, let's not ignore the Ram's real struggles after the team's school-record 16-game win streak was snapped by St. Bonny on Feb. 16. Rhode Island was just 4-4 SU including that loss to the Bonnies, going 2-6 ATS. Rhode Island faltered in the final three minutes of a pair of losses to Davidson in March (by two points and one point) and that hardly bodes well here vs. an Oklahoma team which will be playing with a YUGE chip on its shoulders. Make Oklahoma an 8* play. |
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03-13-18 | Long Island +4.5 v. Radford | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The first game of the 2018 NCAA Tourney tips off Tuesday at 6:40 ET from Dayton Ohio, when 18-16 LIU-Brooklyn (NEC) squares off against 22-12 Radford, champs of the Big South. It is a meeting of programs searching for their first NCAA Tournament victory, with the winner moving on to face the East's top seed, Viillanova, Thursday at Pittsburgh.The LIU Blackbirds are on a five-game win streak that includes a 71-61 Northeast Conference championship game upset over Wagner (regular season champ) on its homecourt as a 9 1/2-point underdog. The co-16th seeded Radford Highlanders come in having won their last seven contests, including the Big South title game which they won 55-52 on a three-pointer at the buzzer . LIU-Brooklyn:The Blackbirds are in the field for the seventh time but for the first time since making it three straight years (2011-13). The team is coached by Derek Kellogg, who is in his first season after spending nine years at UMass, where he took the Minutemen to the Big Dance once. LIU uses a four-guard lineup and all average in double digits, led by the NEC’s second-leading scorer, Joel Hernandez (20.9). He has been the team's go-to player all season and scored 32 points explosion in the championship game victory over Wagner. Senior guard Hernandez also contributes 5.9 RPG and is joined in double digits by fellow guards Clark (17.4), Agosto (11.7-4.1-4.1) and Batts (10.0 & 4.3). Junior guard Raiquan Clark also leads the team in rebounding at 7.1 per game. The 6-8 Van Sauers has been the fifth starter but he contributes only 2.0 & 2.3. However, the 6-7 Coleman adds 6.5 & 6.5 off the bench. Radford: Freshman PG Carlik Jones drained a long three-pointer at the buzzer to beat Liberty 55-52, giving Radford its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2009. Clark (11.8 & 3.0 APG) is joined by just one other double digit scorer, the Highlanders' 6-5 small forward Ed Polite Jr, who leads the team in scoring (13.5) and rebounding (7.1). However, Polite has made just 5-for-20 from the floor over the last two games. Jones averaged 14.5 PPG in the Big South Tournament (13-5-6 in the title game), while sophomore forward Devonnte Holland contributed 11 points and seven rebounds in the championship game and sophomore guard Travis Fields Jr. averaged 11.5 PPG in the team's last two contests.. The pick: It's an interesting matchup of head coaches, Derek Kellogg of LIU (see above) and Mike Jones, in his seventh season with the Highlanders. He spent time as an assistant under Shaka Smart at VCU and was the architect of the vaunted VCU "Havoc defense" (he was on the bench when VCU made its Final Four run in 2011). Radford's defense is one of the nation's best, allowing 64.4 PPG (14th). However, LIU is embracing its long-shot Cinderella story, with Blackbirds entering the tournament with the second-most losses of any team (Texas Southern is 15-19). No doubt LIU faces a tough Radford defense but the Blackbirds have excellent scorers in Hernandez and Clark, plus those two get some pretty solid support (LIU averages 77.5 PPG). Meanwhile, the Highlanders are a workman-like team that is hardly very efficient on the offensive end, averaging only 67.4 PPG (314th) on 42.6% shooting (279th). We could have another buzzer-beater, as this matchup has all the makings for a close game. Take the points and make LIU a 10* play. |
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