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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 138 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Gonzaga has often been viewed as "the little school that could" over the last two decades but in the school's first-ever Final 4 game, the 36-1 Bulldogs are the West's No. 1 seed and face the lone true underdog remaining in the field, the 26-10 and 7th-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks. Gonzaga is 1-2-1 ATS in reaching the Final 4 while South Carolina is a perfect 4-0 ATS. The Gamecocks opened by routing Marquette 93-73 as a one-point favorite and then have knocked off the West's No. 2 (Duke), No. 3 (Baylor) and No. 4 seeds (Florida), each time as an underdog. South Carolina: The Gamecocks have thrived behind high-scoring senior guard Sindarius Thornwell (25.6 PPG and 7.5 RPG in four NCAA wins) and some hellacious wear-you-down defense. Thornwell (21.6 & 7.2 on the season) may have been the SEC player-of-the-year but he was widely unknown prior to this year's Big Dance. That's no longer the case and he's aided by a pair of workman-like guards in Dozier (13.8 & 4.7) and Notice (10.2). South Carolina's frontcourt is suspect, although the 6-9 Silva (10.1 & 5.9) has been a stud in the team's four wins, averaging 13.0 & 7.8. However, the 6-10 Kotsar (5.9 & 4.8) hasn't added much. The key has been a defense which has held Duke to 41.5% shooting, Baylor to 30.4% and Florida to 41.7%. Fiery South Carolina head coach Frank Martin says, "Our inside play has gotten good again. It kind of disappeared on us there the last month of the season. But our inside guys have played well in the NCAA Tournament." That frontcourt will be tested by Gonzaga's big men. Gonzaga: Williams-Goss (16.7-5.9-4.6) gets sold help on the perimeter from Mathews (12.2 & 5.8) and Perkins (8.2). Then there is Gonzaga's big men, starters like the 7-foot, 300-pound Przemek Karnowski (12.2 & 5.8) and the 6-9 Williams (10.3 & 6.6), who averaged 16.0 & 7.0 in Sweet 16 and Elite 8 wins. Throw in 7-0 freshman Collins (9.9 & 5.7) coming off the bench and it's easy to see the challenge facing South Carolina. Gonzaga averages 83.2 PPG (14th) on 50.9% shooting (2nd) and sometimes the team's defense is overlooked. However, Gonzaga enters allowing 60.9 PPG (5th) on 36.4% shooting (1st). Gonzaga ranks No. 1 overall in defensive efficiency! The pick: South Carolina has forced an average of 17 turnovers in four NCAA Tournament games and has outscored every opponent in the second half by an average of 13he points. The Gamecocks defense will put a lot of pressure on Williams-Goss but is there any reason to believe that he's not up to the challenge? Gonzaga shoots 50.9% from the floor with great balance on offense (inside and out) plus holds opponents to 36.4 percent. That's quite a 'daily double.' West Va. averaged 81.5 PPG this season but was held to 59 by Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 and Xavier averaged 74.6 PPG on the year but was held to 58 in the Elite 8 game. South Carolina will struggle to score but its defense will definitely "show up" Gonzaga gets its toughest test to-date and "the Zags" just may be tight. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida OVER 134.5 | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: 25-10 Arkansas and 27-8 Florida will meet Sunday at Madison Square Garden for the right to go to the Final Four. It's the first time since Kentucky and LSU in 1986 that two SEC teams will meet in a regional final. Florida and South Carolina split its two regular-season meetings, with the Gamecocks taking a 57-53 decision on Jan. 18 in Columbia and the Gators paying them back with an 81-66 win on Feb. 21 in Gainesville. Arkansas; The seventh-seeded Gamecocks ended a 44-year NCAA drought with their first round win over Marquette and have followed with wins over Duke (No. 2 seed) and Baylor (No. 3 seed). South Carolina used an 18-0 first half run to back up another strong defensive performance in its upset of Baylor. The Gamecocks enter this game having allowed 64.8 PPG (30th) on the season, after forcing 16 turnovers while holding Baylor to 30.4 percent shooting. That Arkansas "D" has allowed opponets to shoot just 39.8% on the year (16th), including 29.9% on threes (8th). Arkansas is a guard-oriented team, led by SEC player-of-the-year, Thornwell (21.4 & 7.2). Thornwell may have been "under the radar" coming into this tourney but that's no longer the case. He's averaged 26.3 PPG and 7.7 RPG in the Gamecocks' three tourney wins. He's joined on the perimeter by Dozier (13.7 & 4.7) and Notice (10.3), with South Carolina's lone big man of note being the 6-9 Silva (10.1 & 5.8). Florida; While South Carolina rolled in its Sweet 16 matchup, the Gators blew a 12-point lead against the 8th-seeded Badgers, who sent the game into OT with a dramatic leaping, one-legged 3-pointer by Zak Showalter at the buzzer. Then, the Gators won the game on Cris Chiozza's (7.1) buzzer-beating three-pointer of his own, as Florida escaped 84-83. Like South Carolina, Florida is a perimeter-oriented team, led by guards Allen (14.1), Barry (11.6), Robinson (11.3) and Hill (9.7 & 4.4 APG). Florida's bet big man, Egbunu (7.8 & 6.5), was lost in mid-Feb. to a knee injury, leaving only the 6-8 Leon (7.1 & 4.0) and the 6-9 Hayes (6.1 & 4.3) up front. The pick: Like Arkansas, Florida is also an excellent defensive team, allowing 66.2 PPG (44th). That gives us a 'workable' t\over/under number, favoring the over. In this neutral-site setting, expect a game similar to the one we saw when the teams met in late Feb. at Gainesville, one in which the final score totaled 147 points. The Over is a 10* play. |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina UNDER 153 | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Butler has a history of pulling off upsets in the NCAA Tournament, as almost no one forgets the team's back-to-back title-game runs back in 2010 and 2011. However, the fourth-seeded Bulldogs, who are 25-8, will have their hands full with the top-seed in the Midwest, the 29-7 North Carolina Tar Heels. Butler: The Bulldogs pretty much breezed through the first weekend, never trailing in wins over Winthrop 76-64 and Middle Tennessee State 74-65. Butler's top scorer is the 6-7 Martin (16.0 & 5.8), who comes off the bench. Interestingly, the team's top play-maker, guard Lewis (6.5 & 4.0 APG), also comes off the bench. The starters are the 6-7 Chrabascz (11.1 & 4.5) and the 6-8 Wideman (7.4 & 5.1) up front plus guards Baldwin (10.0), Woodson (8.9) and Savage (8.0). Butler was an efficient offensive team all season, shooting 47.9% (32nd) but through their first two NCAA games, the Bulldogs are shooting 50 percent overall and 47 percent from three-point range. North Carolina. The Tar Heels laid waste to to Texas Southern in the first round (103-64) but after blowing a lead against Arkansas, had to rally from a five-point deficit in the final 3 1/2 minutes. Carolina ended the game on a 12-0 run to win, 72-65. “Sometimes you need games like that,” North Carolina guard Joel Berry II told reporters. “We haven’t had a game like that in a while. Now we know we can win a game when we’re down five with three minutes to go.” North Carolina has no shortage of offensive weapons and comes in averaging 85.1 PPG (10th). 6-8 swingman Justin Jackson (18.1 & 4.7) plus 6-10 forward Kennedy Meeks (12.7 & 9.1) and 6-9 forward Isaiah Hicks (12.4 & 5.7) make for quite a starting frontcourt. PG Berry (14.4 & 3.7 APG) has been hobbled by an ankle injury and struggled to a 2-for-13 shooting performance against the Razorbacks. North Carolina could sure use a good game from him, as the Tar Heels have already lost a starting guard in Williams (6.2), to a knee injury. The pick: North Carolina is well aware that Butler owns two wins over Villanova this season, so it will want to control the tempo, whether Berry is 100 percent, or not. Butler is the more delibertat team but remember, both teams shoot well and can score. North Carolina has won 12 of its last 13 Sweet 16 games and note that Butler is 20-0 this season and 55-2 under coach Chris Holtmann, when shooting a higher percentage than its opponent. The Under is a 10* play. |
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03-17-17 | Troy State v. Duke OVER 153 | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-08-17 | Georgetown v. St. John's UNDER 153.5 | Top | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The 14-17 Georgetown Hoyas went 5-13 in Big East games this season and as the 9th seed will play the 13-18 St. John's Red Storm, who are the 8th seed, after going 7-11. Remember the days when a Georgetown-St. John's matchup (Big John vs, Louie) was a big deal? Georgetown: The Hoyas closed the regular season with a 26-point home loss to Villanova (the team's fifth in a row!), a game in which Georgetown shot 36.2 percent, including 4-of-15 from beyond the arc. Let's not mention the 20 turnovers! The Hoyas would now need a miracle to avoid a second straight sub-.500 record (Hoyas were 15-18 last season). Embattled head coach John Thompson III said in a recent statement to ESPN.com, "First and foremost, our fans are terrific and have been terrific. They've experienced some good times with us, and now, with the stretch we are having, I understand their frustration. There is no one more frustrated than I am. We are accustomed to winning. I know that our players and staff are working hard and playing hard. No one cares more about this program and tradition than I do." A pair of 6-5 seniors have really been the only players Georgetown has been able to count on this season. Pryor (18.1 & 5.0) is a graduate transfer from Robert Morris and Peak (16.0-3.8-3.5) is capping his best season, after a four years at the school. St. John's: The Red Storm enter having lost four of five, with their only win in that span being a six-point home victory over Georgetown (Hoyas won by 26 points in D.C.) St. John's has allowed at least 80 points in five straight games and ranks 305th nationally in points allowed (78.0) entering Tuesday's contest. A trio of guards lead Chris Mullins' team, Ponds (17.6 & 4.5), LoVett (16.4 & 3.8 APG) and Ahmed (13.4 & 5.6). The pick: Again, this is no longer the Big John vs. Louis days of competing sweaters (are you too young to remember?) but it's still the Big East tourney and expect a close hard-fought game with the Under being a 10* play. |
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03-05-17 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut OVER 126.5 | Top | 67-47 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The No. 18 Cincinnati Bearcats cap a terrific regular season with this game at UConn. Cincinnati is 26-4 (15-2 in AAC games) and was expected to be fighting for the league title but so was and Connecticut (at least according to preseason expectations) but instead, the Huskies limp into this game 14-15 overall, including 9-8 in AAC play. The pick: It's Senior Day for UConn and before losing at home to Cincy last year, the Huskies had won four straight home games vs. the Bearcats. Cincy's defense always keeps these over/under numbers low and I believe the Over is worth a 10* play in this one. |
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03-04-17 | Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 146 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 19 Notre Dame and No. 8 Louisville are both 23-7 but it's the Fighting Irish (at 12-5) who sit one game back of the 13-4 first-place Tar Heels in the ACC. The Cardinals are 11-6, along with Duke and Florida State. Notre Dame has won the last three meetings between the former Big East rivals, including a 77-70 win on Jan. 4 in South Bend that gave Louisville its first 0-2 start in conference play since 1991-92. Louisville: Rick Pitino teams always play good defense and this year's group is no exception. The Cardinals allow just 65.4 PPG (39th) on 39.4% shooting (13th). However, Louisville can score as well, averaging 77.8 PPG on the season and here at home, where they are 15-1, Louisville averages 81.9 PPG. Guards Mitchell (15.8 & 4.7) and Snider (12.5 & 4.0 APG) plus 6-7 swingman Adel (11.8 & 4.5) are the team's double digit scorers. |
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03-01-17 | Arkansas v. Florida OVER 154.5 | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The No. 12 Florida Gators (23-6 / 13-3 SEC) saw their nine-game winning streak end Saturday in Rupp Arena against the Wildcats and now get set host the 22-7 Arkanasa Razorbacks, who have won five in a row to up their SEC record to 11-5. Arkansas: The Razorbacks' recent surge has solidified their NCAA at-large status but winning at Florida will not come easy, considering Arkansas has lost 11 straight in Gainesville dating to the 1994-95 season. Head coach Mike Anderson relishes the change in fortune and wasn't shy about pointing it out during Monday's media availability session."It's funny because two weeks ago, everybody and some of you guys in here and across the country had us in the cemetery," Anderson said. "They had us dead and I remember making a statement that all sickness is not death. They actually had us buried but as I said all sickness is not death." Guards Hannahs (14.7), Macon (13.7) and Barford (12.2) plus the 6-10 Kingsley (11.8 & 7.1) are the team's top players, as the Razorbacks average 81.0 PPG. Florida. The Gators held Kentucky in check overall (Wildcats scored a modest 76 points) but they couldn't contain Malik Monk, who scored 33 points (30 in the second half). The Gators can match Arkansas' backcourt with starters Allen (14.0) and PG Hill (9.5 & 4.8 APG) plus Barry contributes 12.3 PPG off the bench. The 6-8 Devin Robinson (11.1 & 6.0) has had to pick up his production with John Egbunu (7.8 & 6.5) out for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee. The pick: Florida allows just 66.2 PPG and only two teams have surpassed their season-average in points when playing Florida but I believe this over/under number is low enough to make the Over a 10* play in this one. |
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02-26-17 | Butler v. Xavier OVER 144.5 | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: No one is catching Villanova in the Big East but 22-6 Butler is 11-5 in Big East play and has established itself as the league's second-best team (is currently ranked No.22 in the AP poll). Xavier opened as the AP's seventh-ranked team in the preseason but after a 13-2 start, the Minutemen have lost eight of 13 to enter this game out of the top-25 at 18-10 and just 8-7 in league play. Butler: I guess it's fair to say Butler has established itself as the Big East's second-best team, considering the Bulldogs just won 83-78 at Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bulldogs won despite making only four their 19 three-pointers plus assisted on only six of 23 FGs! Oh, did I fail to mention that Butler also beat the defending champs back on Jan 4th at home, 66-58! A pair of 6-7 players lead Butler in scoring, Martin (15.7 & 5.8), who comes of the bench, and Chrabascz (11.3-4.7-3.1). Six others contribute between 5.4 and 10.0 PPG. Xavier: The Musketeers limp into this contest on a four-game losing streak, as the team is creeping dangerously close to the NCAA Tournament bubble. "We have to get better," Xavier coach Chris Mack said. "We can pinpoint why, but I am more worried about what we have to do to get better. It seems like it has been a long time since we won a game. Our job is not going to get any easier Sunday, but we have to do what we can and fight back and get in the win column." Bluiett (17.8 & 5.7) and Sumner (15.0-4.3-5.) are both 6-6 and Macura (14.5 & 4.4) is 6-5, giving Xavier quite a perimeter trio but lately, the Musketeers just haven't gotten the job done.The pick: A fifth consecutive loss certainly wouldn't look good on Xavier's at-large resume but catching Butler off its win at Villanova may be just what the doctor ordered. However, I'm sticking with the Over as an 8* play, rather than quite trusting Xavier. |
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02-24-17 | Oregon State v. California OVER 124 | Top | 46-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-24 Oregon State Beavers own just one Pac 12 win (1-15) and won't likely earn their second tonight in Berkeley, when they take on the 18-9 Cal Golden Bears (9-6 in Pac 12 play). Oregon State: The Beavers' season all but ended when 6-8 forward Tres Tinkle (20.2-8.3), the coach's son, broke his wrist after six games. Oregon State opened the season by going 4-9 in non-conference play but lost its first 14 Pac 12 games, before breaking through this past Sunday, when OSU rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit to upset Utah, 68-67. The Beavers then lost Wednesday night 79-66 at Stanford and now face Cal. Guard Thompson scored a career-high 31 points in the win over Utah but then had just eight points on the Stanford loss. He leads the team in scoring at 16.4 PPG with fellow guard McLaughlin (11.0 & 3.1 APG) plus the 6-10 Eubanks (14.9 & 8.4) being the only other real significant contributors OSU has now, without Tinkle . California: The Golden Bears have lost three in a row for the first time this season and can’t afford to look past the last-place Beavers, as Cal now sits squarely on the NCAA Tournament 'bubble!' Cal squandered a 16-point, second-half lead and lost 68-65 to No.6 Oregon on Wednesday, when Dillon Brooks hit a game-winning three-pointer with two-tenths of a second remaining. “Obviously, if we had won, it would have been a signature win for us, what we’ve been looking for,” Cal's Jabari Bird told reporters. “It’s an uphill battle. It’s going to be tough getting to the Tournament, but we can do it.” Bird is averaging 20.7 points over the last three games and after three years of underachieving, the 6-5 swingman leads Cal in scoring at 15.1 PPG. The 6-11 Rabb averages 14.6 & 10.7 but the preseason All-American has not been consistent and surely isn't an All-American. |
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02-23-17 | Nebraska v. Michigan State OVER 135.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-14 Nebraska Cornhuskers are just 6-8 in Big Ten play and are trying to just reach .500 overall, in hopes of any kind of postseason tourney invite. The 'Huskers will venture into East Lansing tonight for a game with the 16-11 Michigan State Spartans, who are 8-6 in Big Ten play after losing badly 80-63 last Saturday at now-No. 14 Purdue. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers knew swingman Shields (leading scorer at 16.8 PPG) was graduating but suffered a big blow when the-7 Andrew White III (16.6 & 5.9 LY) decided to play his graduate senior season at Syracuse. Backcourt players Webster (17.7-4.8-4.2) returned but are the team's lone double digit scorers. Emblematic of a near-.500 team, Nebraska averages 70.8 PPG and allows 71.0. Michigan Sttae: Tom Izzo has led the Spartans to 19 straight NCAA tournaments but this yeat's team is squarely "on the bubble." Senior guard Eron Harris, the team's third-leading scorer at 10.7 PPG, suffered a season-ending leg injury against the Boilermakers and Izzo now relies on four freshman. The 6-7 Miles Bridges (16.1 & 8.5) is a star and will likely be gone at the end of this year. The remainder of MSU's young talent are the 6-8 Ward (12.9 & 5.8), PG Winston (7.0 & 5.3 APG) and guard Langford (6.1). Ellis III (6.6) and Matt McQuaid (5.2) have shared time with Harris at SG this season and it's likely Ellis will start tonight. The pick: Assuming Ellis starts, Izzo will send out his ninth different starting lineup of the campaign. It's hardly been a "typical Izzo season" but expect a strong bounce-back off that 'ugly' effort at Purdue. The Cornhuskers are a very beatable foe and I see the Over (10*s) being the best play in this one. |
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02-14-17 | Rutgers v. Purdue UNDER 134.5 | Top | 55-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers (13-13 / 2-11 in Big Ten) travel to West Lafayette to take on the 20-5 (9-3 in Big Ten) Purdue Boilermakers, who are ranked 16th in Monday's latest AP poll. Purdue has won eight of its last 10 and is tied for second place in the conference with Maryland, one game behind Wisconsin. As for Rutgers, after going 11-2 in non-conference play, the Scarlet Knights have lost 11 of the first 13 Big Ten games. |
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01-29-17 | St. Peter's v. Iona OVER 137 | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-9 (8-3) Saint Peter’s Peacocks will travel to the Haynes Athletics Center to take on the 14-8 (7-4) Iona Gaels this Sunday afternoon in MAAC play. St. Peter's: The Peacocks made it back-to-back wins after defeating Marist 81-65 this past Thursday. Saint Peter’s shot 61.7% from the floor, including 13 of 20 on threes. That kind of output has not been typical of St. Peter's this season as the Peacocks average just 65.2 PPG (326th) on 40.6% shooting (321st). 6-8 center Welton (12.2 & 7.4) leads the team in scoring and rebounding while a quartet of guards contribute between 5.6 and 11.0 PPG. Iona: The Gaels come into this game off four straight wins, after defeating tSiena 77-66 this past Friday. Iona's 6-8 Washington (17.5 & 7.3) leads in scoring and rebounding plus is surrounded by six guards chipping in between 6.5 and 11.4 PPG. The best of that group are Severe (11.4), Cassell (11.1) and PG McGill (10.3 & 5.2 APG).
The pick: Iona is a much better offensive team than St. Peter's, averaging 79.4 PPG but the Gaels also allow 75.7 PPG., St' Peter's is off an excellent offensive effort and the Over is an 8* play in this one. |
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01-21-17 | Alabama v. Auburn OVER 141 | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Alabama at Auburn in Saturday college hoops but it's not quite the rivalry the football teams have when playing the annual Iron Bowl game. Alabama is 11-6 (4-1 in the SEC) and Auburn comes in 12-6 overall but just 2-4 in league play.
Alabama: The Crimson TIde have won six of their last seven games, following back-to-back triumphs at LSU (81-66) and home to Missouri (68-56). Alabama out-rebounded Missouri 39-31, the 10th straight time the Crimson Tide have out-rebounded their opponent. Head coach Avery Johnson was also pleased at how his team put together a solid all-around performance, telling reporters after the game: "I thought this was another game where we saw the potential for us to become a balanced basketball team. The ball was just moving. We weren't just standing around. They weren't looking at me trying to get a play call. We were ready to shoot." The Crimson Tide ranks last in the SEC in scoring at 68.6 PPG but allows just 62.2 PPG, which ranks 17th-best defense in the nation. Freshman forward Braxton Key leads the team in scoring (10.2) and rebounding (5.8). Guard Dazon Ingram (9.7-5.0-3.9 assists) is on the verge of becoming the Crimson Tide's second double-digit scorer, having reached the mark in five of his last seven games. Auburn: Unlike the Tide, the Tigers have struggled in SEC play, although the Tigers did beat LSU 78-74 on Wednesday, giving head coach Bruce Pearl his 500th career victory. "(I'm) just blessed to be at Auburn and go to work every day trying to reward (Auburn) for letting me be their coach," he told reporters following the game. Again, unlike Alabama, Auburn allows 75.9 PPG, tied for the second-highest total among SEC teams. Freshman guard Mustapha Heron leads the team in scoring (15.7) and fellow guard Harper chips in with 12.9 PPG. Auburn received some promising news Friday with word that 6-7 freshman forward Danjel Purifoy could return here (he ranks second on the team in scoring at 13.7 PPG and rebounding at 5.8 RPG). The pick: Alabama has won 10 of the past 13 meetings and the Tide don't play in (or win) many shootouts but they have averaged 74.5 PPG their last two games. Don't forget that Auburn is one of the SEC's worst defensive teams, so expect a higher scoring game than the over/under number indicates. The Over is a 10* play. |
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01-18-17 | Denver v. Nebraska-Omaha UNDER 156.5 | Top | 88-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Nebraska-Omaha: The Mavericks come in on a three-game winning streak, after defeating the Western Illinois Leathernecks 86-72, this past Saturday. Omaha used a 14-0 run early in the game to take a 20-7 lead and led the entire second half. Omaha is averaging 81.8 PPG. Guard Tyus is averaging 15.5 PPG to lead the team with the 6-7 Thurman averaging 13.2 PPG and a team-best 8.3 RPG. The backcourt also features two other double digit scorers in Jackson (11.6 & 5.1) plus PG Holins (10.8), who is also handing out 6.6 APG. Throw in the 6-8 Hahn (10.9) up front and that makes five double digit scorers. |
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01-17-17 | Illinois v. Purdue OVER 144 | Top | 68-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Illinois is 12-6 (2-3 in Big Ten) and travels to West Lafayette to take on the 21st-ranked Purdue Boilermakers, who are coming off a frustrating 83-78 loss this past Thursday night at Iowa, an opponent the Boilermakers crushed 89-67 in the Dec. 28 conference opener. Purdue is 14-4 overall, 3-2 in the Big Ten. Illinois: the Fighting Illini face a tough week, playing at Purdue tonight and then at Michigan on Saturday. Losses in both games and Illinois will be at 2-5 in league play. Illinois owns a solid trio of guards in Malcolm Hill (18.2), Tracy Abrams (9.9) and Jalen Coleman-Lands (9.1) but that trio was a collective 8 of 29 from the floor (scored just a combined 20 points!) in the team's 62-56 home loss against Maryland on Saturday. Illinois' best frontcourt player is the 6-7 Black (10.2 & 6.9) but has some excellent size as well, with the 6-10 Morgan (10.1 & 3.9), the 6-10 Finke (7.2 & 4.7) and the 6-11 Thomas (5.9 & 4.2). Purdue: Gone from last year’s 26-win team is the 7-0 A.J. Hammons, who led Purdue in scoring at 15.0 PPG (also added 8.2 RPG). However, Purdue has a strong frontcourt in the 7-2 Haas (13.3 & 5.5) surrounded by 6-9 power forward Swanigan (18.2 & 12.6) and 6-8 SF Edwards (12.0 & 5.1). Freshman guard Carsen Edwards (10.3) leads a group of solid perimeter players, including Mathias (9.8 & 4.1 APG), Thompson (7.6) and Cline (7.2). Purdue is an excellent offensive team (82.6 PPG ranks 25th) on 48.5% shooting (27th).
The pick: Purdue head coach Matt Painter believes the Boilermakers must stay the course, after the loss to Iowa. "Any time you are in a race, you really watch it when it gets to the halfway point," Painter said of the Big Ten's 18-game, regular-season schedule. "When you are playing or coaching, you just look at the next game." Illinois has lost its only two true road games this season (both Big Ten affairs) by an average of 20.5 points and the Fighting Illini are just 11-27 in Big Ten road games under fifth-year coach John Groce. Meanwhile, Purdue is 40-6 at home, including 18-3 in Big Ten play, since the start of the 2014-15 season. The Boilermakers will score but note that their perimeter defense is suspect, as Minnesota guard Nate Mason had 31 points in a New Year's Day victory and Iowa guard Peter Jok scored 29 in Thursday's victory in Iowa City. The Over is a 10* play. |
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01-15-17 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina UNDER 122 | Top | 55-46 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats are 14-2 (4-0 in the AAC) and ranked 22nd, as they visit the 9-9 (1-4 in the AAC) East Carolina Pirates on Sunday afternoon. The Bearcats are coming off a 66-64 win Thursday night at SMU, prevailing despite 1-of-10 shooting and two points from leading scorer Jacob Evans. East Carolina may be a motivated team today, as this is the last time it'll play for head coach Jeff Lebo for a while. Lebo is undergoing hip surgery on Monday and will be sidelined indefinitely.
Cincinnati: Evans is a 6-6 guard and while he had an awful night at SMU, he ;leads the Bearcats with 14.3 PPG. he's joined in the backcourt by PG Caupain (10.4-5.7-4.7) plus big men Washington (13.6 & 7.4) and Clark (10.4 & 6.8) are also double digit scorers. The Bearcats shoot well (48.4% ranks 31st) and as always, play tough D. Cincy holds opponents to 61.6 PPG (111th) on 36.3% shooting (2nd). East Carolina: The Pirates should be motivated to pallaa ranked team and send Lebo off a winner but the Pirates don't have anyone upfront to combat Washington or Clark. However, ECU does own a nice trio of guards in Tyson (11.9), White (11.4) and Barkley (10.9). Let's also note that the Pirates are 8-3 SU at home and like Cincy, know how to play defense. On the season, ECU is allowing 62.6 PPG (17th) on 38.0% shooting (8th). The pick: "I've been dealing with this pain for a couple of years and it has become increasingly unbearable," Lebo said. "The best thing for my personal welfare as well as my family and our team is for me to have this done right away." The Pirates may be motivated but the team just can't score, averaging 62.7 PPG (338th) on 40.5% shooting (319th). ECU only stays close in a slow-paced defensive game (alright with Cincy). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-04-16 | Villanova v. North Carolina OVER 150 | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF MONTH OVER Villanova/UNC. The Villanova Wildcats are coming off a pair of impressive wins over Kansas and Oklahoma, but I think it's going to be a different story when they meet the Tar Heels in the Final. The bookmakers have North Carolina listed as just a slight favorite, and I just don't think they are giving enough respect to the ACC champs. The total for this game also looks a little too low, as I don't think the Wildcats will be very successful stopping North Carolina from scoring. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Previous History - Villanova dominates against opponents in the Big East, but they've failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven versus the ACC. The Tar Heels are rolling, and they've averaged a whopping 88 points per game while going over in four of their five games. 2. Scoring Depth - The Wildcats were successful in shutting down Buddy Heild in their win over Oklahoma (he scored nine points), and they held Perry Ellis to just four points on 1-of-5 shooting in their win over Kansas. The problem here is, even if they shut down North Carolina's leading scorer Brice Johnson, that leaves Kennedy Meeks, Marcus Paige and Joel Berry who are all capable of carrying the load. 3. X-Factor - The Tar Heels have gone over in seven of their las eight non conference games, and six of their last seven NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats have gone over in 11 of their last 14 overall. Selection: This is a play on Villanova@UNC to go OVER the total (10*) |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse v. North Carolina OVER 146 | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 125 h 22 m | Show |
The Syracuse Orange have developed a reputation as giant killers, coming off consecutive upset wins over Gonzaga and Virginia. It's important to remember though, they were down by double-digits early in both of those games. So while you have to give them credit for playing strong defense late in games, you can't say that luck didn't play a role in both of their last two wins. Unless the game plan was to get badly outplayed in the first half, and then come charging back in the final 20 minutes? I don't think the Orange will get away with playing the same way here in the Final Four. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Previous History - The Tar Heels have won nine straight, covering the spread in seven of those games. All of their wins in the tournament so far have been decided by double-digits, and they have scored an average of 83.6 points on 51.4 percent shooting in their last five. The Over is 5-1 in Tar Heels last six NCAA Tournament games. 2. Three-Point Shooting - The Orange know they will need to hit a few three-pointers to keep this game close, but they were just 6-of-18 from beyond the arc against Virginia, below their average of 39.4 percent over their last five games. The Tar Heels proved they can also shoot the three-ball, hitting 11-of-20 from beyond the arc against Indiana. Marcus Paige is has hit 13-of-27 three-point attempts in the tournament so far. 3. X-Factor - The Over is 12-4-1 in Orange last 17 neutral site games. Selection: This is a play on Syracuse@UNC to go OVER the total (10*) |
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04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma OVER 146 | Top | 95-51 | Push | 0 | 123 h 32 m | Show |
The Villanova Wildcats stunned #1 ranked Kansas in the Elite 8, and they are a slight favorite in their Final Four matchup versus Oklahoma. The Sooners though have been scoring a ton of points, and I think we could have a shootout on our hands in Houston. The total for this game looks way too low, and my money is on the over. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Previous History - The Wildcats score plenty of points themselves, and they've gone over in 10 of their last 13 overall. They've scored an average of 79.2 points on 52.4 percent shooting over their last five games. The Sooners aren't far behind, averaging 78.6 points on 48.6 percent shooting during the same span. 2. Buddy Hield - The senior guard is feeling the hot hand, coming off a 37 point performance against Oregon. He was 8-of-13 from beyond the arc in that game, and he's 19-of-40 from three-point range in the tournament. With his confidence high, he's likely to be throwing up plenty of threes here on Saturday. 3. X-Factor - The Wildcats have been money from the free throw line, hitting 82.7 percent over their last five games. They hit over 80 percent from the charity stripe on the road this year. Selection: This is a play on the Wildcats@Sooners to go OVER the total (10*) |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse v. Virginia OVER 123.5 | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
The Virginia Cavs will face the Syracuse Orange in an Elite 8 battle on Sunday, and the Cavs come in as the undisputed favorite. These are two of the top defensive teams in the country, but unlike Syracuse, The Cavs can also score with the best of them. They lit up the Iowa State Cyclones for 84 points on 56.1 percent shooting in the Sweet 16, and I think the bookmakers have been a little too conservative with a low number in tonight's game. My money is on the over. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Previous History - The Cavs have won the last three meetings in this series, and two of those three wins came by double-digits, and two of three games went over the number. The most recent meeting was a 73-65 home win for Virginia, shooting 56.8 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from three point range. 2. Three-Point Shooting - The Cavs shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc this season, and they won nine of 10 neutral site games, hitting 42.8 percent of their three-point attempts. Junior guard London Perrantes is shooting 48 percent from beyond the arc this season, and he's 7-of-15 from three-point range in the tournament so far. The Orange are also a good three-point shooting team, hitting over 40 percent from beyond the arc on neutral sites this season. 3. X-Factor - The Orange have gone over in six of their last eight versus division rivals, and the over is 11-4-1 in Orange last 16 neutral site games. Selection: This is a play on the Orange/Cavaliers to go OVER the total (10* |
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