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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rhode Island over Creighton at 4:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton was in a world of hurt down the stretch, struggling to pick up victories leading up to the Big East Tournament. The Blue Jays did rally to win a couple of games in that tournament and ultimately reach the final against Villanova, but that game was never really close, and now they come into this showdown with red hot Rhode Island a little worse for wear. The Rams defeated VCU in the A-10 Tournament championship and roll into this tourney having gone 6-1 ATS over their last six games. I like the way this Rhode Island defense matches up with the Creighton offense - an offense that shoots just shy of 51% as a team this season. This may be a tightly contested affair most of the way, but I look for the Rams to have a little more in the tank, and to hit the clutch shots down the stretch in a big opening round victory. Take Rhode Island (10*). |
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03-17-17 | USC +6.5 v. SMU | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC plus the points over SMU at 3:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Trojans in a game I believe they can win outright on Friday afternoon. SMU has been one of the best bets in the nation this season, posting a 22-6-1 ATS record but that means little as we flip the page over to the NCAA Tournament. We saw the Mustangs narrowly avoid a big upset at the hands of ECU as a 19-point favorite in last week's AAC Tournament. USC has certainly endured an up and down season but does enter the tourney on a 4-1 ATS run, including a 75-71 victory over Providence in the play-in game earlier this week. I believe that tournament-style game action serves the Trojans well heading into this one. They won't be intimidated by the Mustangs. Take USC (10*). |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 152 | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iona and Oregon at 2 pm et on Friday. We're looking at one of the highest posted totals in the opening round of this tournament in this matchup but it's warranted in my opinion. I believe we're in for a track meet as the Gaels take on the Ducks on Friday afternoon. Iona knows it can run with Oregon, averaging over 80 points per game this season. The Gaels' issue, however, is they're not capable of slowing down the Ducks, allowing over 81 points per contest away from their home floor. Oregon fell just short in the Pac-12 Tournament, losing by three points but putting up 80 points against NCAA Tournament two-seed Arizona. The Ducks have shot better than 48% as a team this season and they'll face little resistance in setting the tempo here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-17 | North Dakota +16.5 v. Arizona | 82-100 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Dakota plus the points over Arizona at 9:50 pm et on Thursday. You’ll see the Arizona Wildcats in the Final Four on a lot of brackets this week and while they should cruise past North Dakota on talent alone, I’m not sure it will turn out to be a cakewalk. The Wildcats do come in playing arguably their best basketball of the season but you have to think winning the Pac-12 Tournament title took a physical toll last week. North Dakota enters this game with nothing to lose having rallied from a trying start to the season (won only five of its first 11 games) to earn its first NCAA Tournament bid in school history. The Fighting Hawks can shoot, knocking down better than 48% of their shots, including just shy of 39% from beyond the arc. I don’t believe we’ll see North Dakota come out tentative even in the face of the daunting task of knocking off the second seeded Wildcats. Most are anticipating a blowout here after the Fighting Hawks struggled to get past Weber State in overtime in the Big Sky Tournament final. I believe they have enough to stay inside the inflated pointspread. Take North Dakota (10*). |
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03-16-17 | Florida Gulf Coast +12.5 v. Florida State | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida Gulf Coast plus the points over Florida State at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. Everyone remembers Florida Gulf Coast’s epic Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 four years ago. For that reason you would think that the Eagles might be a little overvalued in this one, but I don’t see that as the case. Florida State earned a lofty three seed thanks to a 25-8 record but I believe the Seminoles could be ripe for an upset here. Florida Gulf Coast went out with a whimper against North Carolina after earning its way into the tournament with a play-in game victory over Fairleigh Dickinson. This is a much more favorable matchup for the Eagles, who are a mirror image of the ‘Noles in some ways, most notably with their high-flying offensive attack. Florida State hasn’t been here in a while and I think it will be feeling some pressure in Orlando on Thursday, unlike its counterpart. If the shots start falling early for the Eagles, the ‘Noles could be in for a stressful night. Take Florida Gulf Coast (10*). |
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03-16-17 | East Tennessee State +10.5 v. Florida | 65-80 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on East Tennessee State plus the points over Florida at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the make-up of this East Tennessee State squad, and feel they draw a relatively favorable matchup as far as facing a four-seed goes in Florida. ETSU starts four seniors and one junior and has a bonafide star that is capable of taking over a game in T.J. Cromer. The Gators will have the advantage of playing close to home (if you can call that an advantage) as this one will be played in Orlando. That’s already been factored into the line as far as I’m concerned. I like the confidence of ETSU head coach Steve Forbes, who said “Our goal was not just to play meaningful games in March but to win them.” This isn’t a team that is just ‘happy to be here’. Teams from the SoCon have had success in this tournament in the past, and I believe the Buccaneers have an excellent shot at not only covering the lofty pointspread, but winning outright. Take East Tennessee State (10*). |
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03-16-17 | South Dakota State +22 v. Gonzaga | 46-66 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota State plus the points over Gonzaga at 2 pm et on Thursday. It has never happened before, but I’m a believer that it’s only a matter of time before a 16 seed takes down a number one ranked squad. That’s not to say I’m calling for the South Dakota State Jackrabbits to pull off the stunning upset here, but I am confident they’ll be able to keep things respectable against what I consider to be an overvalued Gonzaga squad. The Bulldogs will obviously find themselves in the Final Four on a lot of brackets this week but I’m not sure we’ll see this tournament play out that way. Gonzaga enters the tourney with the nation’s largest margin of victory over the course of the season and needless to say, lofty expectations. Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits have the nation’s second-leading scorer in Mike Daum, and plenty of experience (they reached the Big Dance last year) and confidence on the heels of six straight wins. South Dakota State truly has ‘nothing to lose’ as a 16 seed and I expect to see it play accordingly on Thursday afternoon. Take South Dakota State (10*). |
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03-16-17 | Winthrop +11.5 v. Butler | 64-76 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Butler at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bulldogs have never been seeded higher than they have here in 2017, even if this squad enters the tournament with perhaps a little less fanfare than previous renditions. Butler will have to get rolling again from a standing start after dropping its last two games, including a 62-57 setback against Xavier in the quarter-final round of the Big East Tournament last week. The Bulldogs get to open this tournament fairly close to home in Milwaukee but I’m not sure that favors them all that much here. Winthrop is no stranger to hard-fought battles and I believe the Eagles are well-suited to keeping this one close from start to finish as well. Here’s a quote from head coach Pat Kelsey, “The jubilation was the other day when we won the championship and cut the nets down. They’re a hungry bunch and ready to get to work.” Johnson will pace the Eagles charge. Look for Winthrop to give Butler all it can handle. Take Winthrop (10*). |
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03-11-17 | UCF +8.5 v. SMU | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Central Florida plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Knights on Saturday afternoon as they try to take down one of the best bets in the nation this season, the SMU Mustangs. The Mustangs certainly weren't a good bet yesterday as they narrowly held off a late charge from the ECU Pirates, and didn't come close to covering the spread. While SMU checks in sporting an impressive 20-6-1 ATS mark, the Knights have been a pretty solid bet in their own right lately, going 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests and 14-12 overall this season. They enter this one on the heels of six consecutive SU wins and have to believe they can take down the Mustangs, having fell just short by five points in their lone regular season meeting. I simply feel that SMU has become an overvalued commodity. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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03-08-17 | Air Force v. Wyoming -5.5 | 83-68 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over Air Force at 4:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll lay the points with the Cowboys on Wednesday afternoon. Wyoming took both regular season meetings between these two teams, both SU and ATS. That's no surprise as the SU winner has been perfect ATS in this series for years now. In other words, when the favorite wins, it covers, without exception. I am confident we'll see Wyoming prevail in this one. Note that Air Force went just 4-14 in conference play and was certainly no ATS star, going 12-12 ATS in lined contests. Meanwhile, the Cowboys check in sporting an impressive 19-10 ATS mark. The Falcons hung around in their last matchup with Wyoming as Frank Toohey turned in his best game of the season. He hasn't been much of a factor since. Look for the Cowboys to ultimately pull away in this one. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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03-19-13 | Boston University v. Loyola Md UNDER 134 | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
We won with the 'under' in this same matchup last season, as Loyola-Maryland rolled to a 69-56 win on this same court. We're actually dealing with a higher total this time around, but I'm not sure it's warranted.
Boston saved its best basketball for the second half of the season, but ultimately bowed out in its conference tournament opener against a quality Stony Brook squad a few weeks back. Following a long layoff, I'm not convinced the Terriers won't show some rust on Tuesday night. Boston will want to push the pace a little bit in this one, but that's what makes this a tough matchup for them. The Greyhounds are a strong defensive team that offers a major contrast in style. They'll look to force the Terriers into a halfcourt game, and I expect them to succeed in doing so. While there have been times that we've seen Loyola-Maryland go up-tempo, those type of performances have been few and far between lately. When the chips were down in the MAAC Tournament a couple of weeks ago, the Greyhounds could only manage to score 52 points on 48 FG attempts in a disappointing 55-52 loss to Manhattan. Still, Loyola has posted a 13-6 o/u record this season - a big reason why we're seeing an inflated total on Tuesday night. I believe both teams - Boston in particular - had a little more offensive firepower last season, yet they still only put up 125 points in their lone meeting. I also expect this contest to settle out in the 120s, giving us excellent value at the current number. Take the under (8*). |
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03-19-13 | Liberty Flames v. North Carolina A&T UNDER 127 | Top | 72-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Liberty caught fire from beyond the arc and pulled off a string of upset victories on its way to a conference title last week, seeing the 'over' go 3-1 in its last four contests. I don't expect that trend to continue on Tuesday, however, as the Flames run into a North Carolina A&T squad that will look to grind it out, and force Liberty outside of its element. Note that the Aggies have held the opposition to just over 61 points per game on a stingy 38.4% shooting this season. Not surprisingly, three of their four conference tournament games played 'under' the total. The problem that A&T might run into here is that it doesn't have a potent offense by any means. The Aggies shoot worse than 40% as a team, and average just under 62 ppg. Take them outside of their own gym and those numbers drop considerably to 58.9 ppg on 36% shooting. Liberty isn't a great defensive team, but I do expect it to bring its 'A' game in this 'one-and-done' affair on Tuesday night. These teams may only be playing for the right to get blasted when the real tournament begins on Thursday, but I still expect them to leave it all on the floor in a tightly-contested game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-17-13 | Mississippi v. Florida UNDER 136 | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
I can't help but think that this total is an overreaction to the Gators 78-64 win over Ole Miss in their lone regular season meeting back in the first week of February. Keep in mind, the total closed at 134 points in that one, so we're seeing a significant adjustment here. The fact is, both teams have been locked in defensively in this tournament so far. Ole Miss has faced a tough road to get to the final, outlasting Missouri and Vandy while allowing just 62 and 52 points. While the Rebels have had their share of defensive shortcomings this season, there's no question they're peaking at the right time in that department. Of course, Florida's success this season has been built on terrific defensive play. The Gators are holding the opposition to just over 37% shooting, and have certainly performed well in this tourney, allowing 58 and 51 points in wins over LSU and Alabama. Ole Miss will definitely pose a stiff challenge, but I'm confident the Gators will be up to the task. They've looked like a much different team since getting called out by head coach Billy Donovan earlier in the week. The 'under' has cashed at a 15-11 clip in lined Gators games this season, and that's a trend I see continuing on Sunday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-13 | Alabama v. Florida -13 | 51-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
We won with the Gators yesterday, and we'll come right back with them again on Saturday.
While it's true that Florida won by only 12 points on its home floor in its lone regular season meeting with Alabama - that game was played just two weeks ago - I see this one being a little more one-sided. The Gators didn't bring their 'A' game on that day - at least not until the latter stages of the game, yet still managed to win by double-digits. They ended up connecting on only 2-of-13 three-point attempts, and held only a slim 27-25 rebounding edge. I like the fact that Billy Donovan called out his team for a lack of 'fire' entering this tournament. Of all the teams playing this weekend, the Gators might carry the biggest chip on their shoulder. We certainly saw them regain that 'fire' in yesterday's rout of LSU, and I expect some carry-over from that performance this afternoon. Alabama has been good, but not great, this season, going 21-11 SU, but just 13-15 ATS in lined contests. The Crimson Tide managed to outlast an uneven Tennessee Vols squad on Friday, but that win didn't come easy. They're obviously coming off the much tougher game when compared to Florida, playing for the second time in as many days. Look for the Gators to enjoy another solid day offensively, while the Tide will go through a couple of second half droughts that will cost them a spot in Sunday's final - and a cover for their backers. Take Florida (9*). |
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03-15-13 | Michigan v. Wisconsin +3 | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
I really believe that a bit of a break might have been the best thing for the Badgers given the way they limped to the finish line during the regular season. They dropped two of their final three games SU, going 0-3 ATS - clearly this is a team that needs to step up its game if its going to avoid a 'one-and-done' in Chicago this weekend. What better opponent than Michigan to bring out the best in Wisconsin. Remember, the Badgers took the lone regular season meeting between these two Big Ten rivals by a 65-62 score in overtime back on February 9th. The Wolverines have quite simply been an awful bet for weeks now, having gone 2-9 ATS over their last 11 games. Sure, they outlasted Penn State on Friday - by a convincing margin - but that was no big accomplishment. This is still a team that regressed considerably over the course of the season, and I'm just not sold on them being favored in this particular matchup. After scoring 83 points against an overmatched Penn State squad on Thursday, I look for the Wolverines offense to fall back to earth on Friday afternoon - against a quality Badger defense. I get the feeling this is going to be a frustrating game for UM fans to watch as Wisconsin wins ugly once again. Take Wisconsin (8*). |
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03-15-13 | LSU v. Florida -15 | 58-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
LSU built a huge first half lead before hanging on for dear life in a 68-63 win over Georgia yesterday. Now the Tigers take a serious step up in class against a highly-motivated, not to mention talented Florida Gators squad. I don't see this ending well for the Bayou Bengals. I think it's safe to say that LSU has exceeded most expectations this season, and getting to the second round of the SEC Tournament after drawing a hot Georgia squad on Thursday has to be looked at as a major victory. The run ends here, however, as the Tigers face a Gators squad that still has a sour taste in its mouth following that disappointing regular season-ending loss to Kentucky. Gators head coach Billy Donovan has talked openly about his team lacking 'fire', those comments were obviously made as a rallying cry entering the SEC Tournament, and I do believe we'll see his players respond favorably. Note that Florida blasted LSU by 22 points on the road in the lone regular season meeting between these two teams. This simply isn't a good matchup for LSU, as they don't defend particularly well, nor can they keep up with the Gators dynamic offense. That's not to mention the rather large edges Florida holds at the free throw line and on the glass. LSU might hang around for a while, but it should only be a matter of time before the Gators put this one away for good. Take Florida (8*). |
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