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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-17 | Ball State v. Akron OVER 155.5 | 63-65 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Akron Zips vs Ball State Cardinals @ 6 ET - The very first numbers that came out on this game yesterday had the total at 160 and it has since dropped to as low as a 155.5 as of this morning. That is offering exceptional line value on the over because both teams love to play at a fast pace and both are capable of putting up big points on going on quick back-and-forth scoring runs. The Zips are off of a loss that snapped their long overall winning streak but they still have an incredible 28-game home winning streak intact. They are happy to be back home after the road loss at Ohio University and I expect Akron to again be firing on all cylinders here. The Zips had multiple problems in the loss to the Bobcats as they had a key player dealing with food poisoning and then foul trouble led to guys having to sit on the bench. This forced the Zips to play "small ball" and they were able to hang around for awhile in the game but eventually ran out of healthy bodies as guys fouled out, struggled with illness, etc. The key to liking the over here is the fact that Akron may be a little more tentative on defense here. They Zips know they can score like crazy (especially at home) and the last thing they want to do is to get into foul trouble again and not have key players available. That said, they will concede a little more on the defensive end and that will help turn this one into a back and forth shootout. The over is an amazing 17-2 in Ball State's game this season! The over is 7-3 in the Zips conference games this season. Both teams shoot the ball very well, including from three point land, and neither teams defends the 3-ball very well either. Add it all up and you have a game where it wouldn't surprise me to see each team score at least 80 points. In fact both teams average nearly 80 points per game this season and the situational value here dictating a rather lax effort on the defensive end should help fuel a highly entertaining game in this one. 8* OVER the total in Akron very early Tuesday evening |
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02-04-17 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 208.5 | Top | 102-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:35 ET - The 76'ers had gone over the total in 7 straight games and then had an ugly game at San Antonio Thursday where they fell apart after a strong 1st half. Look for the over streak to resume here after that ugly 102-86 loss to the Spurs. The Sixers have gone over the total EACH of the last 6 times they were off of a game where they were held to 93 points or less. Overall, that system has a 12-3 mark on the season as Philadelphia has gone over the total in 12 of 15 games this season when they enter off of a game where they scored 93 points or less. The Sixers come into this game having allowed 113.4 points per game in their last 8 games and the Heat offense is literally at full HEAT! Miami has won and covered 9 straight games and they've averaged 107.5 points per game in their last 10 games. The Heat have been shooting the ball very well and I doubt the Sixers will be able to put up much resistance. As well as Philly had been playing it truly has been big offense rather than solid defense that led the way and I look for a very free-flowing high-scoring game here as Miami is off of a divisional game where they certainly brought the defensive intensity. They'll let up against the Sixers. The over is 6-1 in 76'ers road games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points this season. The over is 4-1 in Miami's home games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points this season. Look for more of the same here. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Saturday evening |
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02-02-17 | Michigan State v. Nebraska OVER 135 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Spartans are off of a big rivalry win versus Michigan and that game stayed under the total. However, that was due to a solid effort on defense from Michigan State and that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. The Spartans had allowed 79.3 points per game in their three prior games and opponents shot better than 46% in all three of those games. Each of those three went over the total as Michigan State has been hot on offense as well. In their last 4 games the Spartans have averaged 71 points per game and they've shot better than 44% from three point land in all four games! Overall from the field this season Michigan State has knocked down 47.5% of their shots including 38% from beyond the arc. Nebraska allows opponents to hit 39.4% of three pointers this season and that bodes well for a big game from the Spartans here. The Huskers have allowed 78 points per game in their last 4 homes games and 3 of the 4 went over the total. Nebraska isn't known for being a powerhouse offensively but I look for the Spartans to have a slip up in defensive intensity here after their big rivalry win over the Wolverines. Before knocking off Michigan, Sparty hadn't been overly impressive on the defensive end as noted above. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Spartans road games this season. Also, when Michigan State's line in a road game is between pick'em and +3 the over has gone a perfect 6-0 the last 3 seasons. Overall, in games where the Spartans are an underdog the over is 15-4 the last 3 seasons combined. The first numbers that came up on this total yesterday were 138.5 but the O/U quickly got pushed down to 135. I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here as the Cornhuskers are averaging 73 points per game at home this season and they are hosting a hot-shooting Michigan State team Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Nebraska |
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01-31-17 | Ohio v. Western Michigan OVER 150.5 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The big news out of Ohio U recently was the loss of one of the MAC's best players as forward Antonio Campbell was lost for the season with a broken foot. Definitely a tough break for the Bobcats but this team continues to put up big points and shoot lights out even without Campbell. This issue for Ohio heading into this one is the fact that they have a huge game versus Akron on deck for Saturday. Couple that with the fact that the Bobcats held the Broncos to just 58 points when these teams met four weeks ago and you have a situation where Ohio's defensive intensity is unlikely to be very high for this game. That will prove to be a mistake because Western Michigan has been putting up big points of late and definitely has been scoring big at home all season long. On the season the Broncos are averaging 85 points per game at home! The problem for Western Michigan has been their defense and, in particular their perimeter defense. The Broncos are very weak against the 3-pointer (allowing 39% this season) and the Bobcats strength on offense is that they are knocking down 39% of their threes season. That said, this looks like an absolute shootout set up here as the Broncos continue to score huge at home but the hot-shooting Bobcats score big right along with them. The over is 4-0 in Ohio's last 4 games and 5-0 in Western Michigan's home games this season. This is nothing new as the over is 21-5 in Broncos home games the last three seasons combined. Also, long-term, the Broncos are 54-28 to the over when playing with road loss revenge. The Bobcats are 52-30 to the over long-term when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. With the Broncos having scored 78 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and Ohio U having averaged 83 points per game in their last 3 games, both teams are definitely "feeling it" right now and come into this game with tremendous confidence on the offensive end. 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan |
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01-30-17 | Nets v. Heat OVER 217.5 | Top | 96-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games. They're now hosting a Brooklyn team they just beat again last week. Miami is now 8-1 SU and ATS in their last 9 games against the Nets. That said, I don't expect a lot of defensive intensity from the Heat in this one. Miami knows "they got this" and they'll simply "run and gun" and that should be more than to enough for the Heat to keep enjoying their winning ways. After all, the Nets are the worst team defensively in the entire league. Brooklyn has been particularly bad on that end of the floor of late as they have allowed an average of 121 points per game in their last 9 games. Miami, thanks to winning, has lost a little bit of its intensity on the defensive end and, surprisingly, the Heat have allowed 102 points or more in 6 of their last 9 games. Miami's defense certainly could be stretched a bit by a Brooklyn offense that has averaged 111 points per game in their last 9 games. As bad as the Nets defense is, they have definitely proven capable of putting up some big points. The over is 5-1 in Brooklyn's last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games against Eastern Conference foes. Though this total may seem high, note that Brooklyn is 15-7 to the over in their road games with a posted total of 210 or more this season. Also, when the Nets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the over has gone 14-6 this season. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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01-29-17 | 76ers v. Bulls OVER 205 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #843 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers, even though off of a loss, continue to be a "story" in the NBA as they are playing their best basketball of the season. Each of the 76'ers last 4 games have gone over the total and they've shot 50% or better in each of their last 3 games. The fact that Joel Embiid is going to sit for this game doesn't necessarily hurt our play on the over because that is a significant defensive presence that now won't be out there to disrupt shots or clear the defensive glass. I expect the Sixers to continue their hot shooting but their defense will struggle to stop a determined Bulls team. Chicago is coming off of an ugly home loss to Miami and that was a game in which Wade and Butler did not start. There was/is a lot of in-fighting going on among Bulls players right now but now that a "statement" was sent in their last game, and Chicago was held to 88 points, look for the Bulls to get back on track here. They have a history of success putting up big numbers against the Sixers and that has played a key role in 7 straight overs before November's Bulls win (Chicago totaled 105 points) stayed under the total. I'll gladly test the 7-1 over streak with this match-up as I expect Wade and Butler to come out with fire in this one. Overall, the over is 29-12 in Bulls games against the Atlantic Division and the over is a perfect 3-0 in Chicago's Sunday games this season. The over is 4-1 this season in Sixers road games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points. The way Philadelphia has been moving the ball on offense and getting open looks, I look for another strong effort here. The 76'ers averaged 117.7 points in their last 3 games while the Bulls averaged 105.3 points per game in their 3 games before the debacle against the Heat. Look for a great pace to this game to help our cause as the Bulls come out fired up to attack on offense. 10* OVER the total in Chicago |
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01-28-17 | Pistons v. Heat OVER 203 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - Both teams are playing very well on the offensive end right now. The Pistons have won 3 of their last 4 games and have averaged 109 points per game during this 4-game stretch. The Heat have won 6 straight games and have shot the ball very well over their last 7 games while averaging 105.6 points per game in these 7 games. Surprisingly, though they've been hot on offense, big posted totals have led to the under actually going a perfect 3-0 in Miami's last 3 games. This only the 5th time that has happened this season. The first four times it happened the Heat have gone a perfect 4-0 to the over in their next game! Also, the over is 5-3 in the 2nd game of back to backs for Miami and the Heat are 5-1 to the over in Saturday games this season. The Pistons come into this game with fresh legs as they have been off since Monday. Detroit has gone over the total in 3 straight games and 10 of its last 13 games! The over is 15-8 when the Pistons enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Also, the over is 9-3 in Detroit's last 12 games against Southeast Division opponents. Both teams have been winning plus shooting the ball very well. That leads to defensive lapses and I expect plenty of offense in this one especially with Hassan Whiteside of the Heat still dealing with an ankle injury and that limits the Heat defensively and on the defensive glass. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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01-28-17 | St. Louis v. George Washington OVER 128 | Top | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #571 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in George Washington Colonials vs St Louis Billikens @ 4 ET - This game is a little "off of the beaten path" but oftentimes that is where the best value is found, especially for a total play. In this particular match-up we have a situation where both teams are coming off of wins where they each put up a bunch of points. That helps because it not only boosts the confidence of the offense but it can also lead, sometimes unconsciously, to more relaxed defense. The key to play here is, of course, line value. The Colonials are favored by 14 points here and the Billikens have scored 65 points in each of their last two meetings with George Washington. I see no reason why St Louis shouldn't again get to that number today and that means if the odds makers are right (as they so often are) we should see a 79-65 type game here. Of course that totals 144 points which is well above the 128 total that has been placed on this game. The reason for the low posted total here is the fact that the Billikens recently lost their top scorer and, overall, haven't scored well on the season. But what I like about St Louis here is the fact they are off of a game where they just made a ton of trips to the free throw line plus knocked down threes at a respectable rate (7 of 20). St Louis has hit at least 35% from three point land in 9 of its last 11 games. The Billikens will take advantage of a George Washington team not known for its perimeter defense as GW has allowed 37.5% threes on the season. The Colonials offense has been hot from long range as they've knocked down at least 40% from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! George Washington has only seen 2 of their 20 games this season finish with a total of less than 128 points this season. I know the posted total is low here because of St Louis but it is simply too low in my opinion. The Billikens have allowed an average of nearly 73 points per game in their last 8 games and their D has not impressed during this run. The over is 5-2 in George Washington home games with a posted total in the 120s. Also, the over is 10-5 when GW is off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. When facing a team that averages less than 64 points per game, the Colonials have gone 5-1 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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01-24-17 | Villanova v. Marquette OVER 152.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
TV Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #737 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marquette Golden Eagles vs Villanova Wildcats @ 8 ET - The Golden Eagles defense and rebounding are both glaring concerns. Marquette is not going to stop Villanova from scoring a ton of points in this one. However, the Wildcats defense may not be at it's sharpest here. Keep in mind, Nova already obliterated the Golden Eagles 93-81 two and a half weeks ago in Philly. Note the Wildcats led that game by as much as 30 points and the final score is not fully indicative of just how much of a blowout win it was for Villanova. As a result, it is going to be difficult for the Wildcats to have the mindset of a team that is going to come in to Milwaukee and play with a lot of defensive intensity tonight. Complicating the situation for Villanova is that they have a date with a ranked Virginia team on deck. That game is being played at Villanova on Sunday and may very well end up being the highest ranked team that the Wildcats face on their home floor this entire season. As a result, that game is of the utmost importance to Villanova and I would not be surprised to see the Wildcats not fully focused on the Golden Eagles here as they start peeking ahead to the big match-up with the Cavaliers. Though the Wildcats are a strong team all the way around (including defense) they did allow Marquette to hit 45% of their threes in the match-up earlier this month. A repeat performance would not surprise because now the Golden Eagles are at home and they have been nailing threes like crazy this season. It's now 13 straight games that Marquette has shot at least 37.5% from three point land! In 10 of those 13 games the Golden Eagles shot at least 42.9% from beyond the arc! Marquette does tend to put up a lot of points but they have allowed 80 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. One of those games did go to OT but they allowed 77 points in regulation of that game. Look for a high-scoring shootout here as the Golden Eagles will be amped up for hosting the #1 team in the nation but their only hope here is to have a huge game offensively because their porous defense won't be able to stop the Wildcats. The over is 15-7 in Wildcats games where they are a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 17-10 in Villanova's road games the past 3 seasons. The over is 5-1 this season in games where Marquette is an underdog. The over is 14-7 the past 3 seasons when the Golden Eagles are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Marquette |
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01-23-17 | NC State v. Duke OVER 160.5 | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack seek revenge for being knocked out of the ACC Tourney by Duke last spring. While I do expect NC State to certainly put up a valiant effort tonight, they don't have the defensive mindset necessary to slow down the Blue Devils. Couple that with the fact that this total opened up at 163.5 and has since dropped down to the 160 range and we have some nice value here in a game that is likely to be played at a frenetic pace. NC State has averaged 81.6 points per game on the season while the Blue Devils are averaging 82.9 points per game this season. The reason the Wolfpack are 2-5 in ACC action is they allow 84.7 points per game. Duke is averaging 91 points per game in their 3 home games in ACC action and, though they are off of an under versus Miami Saturday, the Blue Devils entered that game on a 5-0 run to the over. The Wolfpack are off of a home loss to Wake Forest and NC State is 17-9 to the over when off of a loss in ACC action the past 3 seasons combined. Overall, the over is 11-6 in Wolfpack games this season. Duke is on a long-term run of 21-13 to the over when they are a home favorite in a range of 15.5 to 18 points. Look for the Blue Devils totals record to go to 6-1 to the over in ACC action with an extremely high-scoring game Monday against a revenge-minded Wolfpack team that will score well but has "earned" their ranking as the worst defense in the ACC so far this season with allowing 77.2 points per game on the season thus far. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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01-21-17 | Nets v. Hornets OVER 218.5 | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 8* OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET Saturday - After back to back surprisingly strong efforts for the Hornets defense, I don't expect a repeat in this back-to-back spot. Charlotte is not only playing on back to back nights, it is also their 3rd game in 4 days and it is hard to get excited about facing the 9-33 Nets after having knocked off the Raptors last night. Brooklyn put up a ridiculous 143 points in their game last night. The over is 14-6 in their road games this season and the Nets are 4-2 to the over in the 2nd game of a back to back as well. The Hornets are 12-6 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the over is 7-3 in Charlotte's games with a posted total of 210 points or higher. The over is 4-0 in Brooklyn's last 4 games and also 4-0 in their Saturday games this season. I look for both streaks to reach 5-0 in this spot as very little defense is likely here after both teams rolled to easy victories last night. 8* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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01-20-17 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 214.5 | 78-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET Friday - This total opened up as high as 216.5 and has already dropped by a bucket, down to 214.5, as of very early gameday morning. I'll gladly grab the extra value here as this one has the makings of an absolute shootout. Charlotte is off of a rare, strong defensive performance as they held Portland to 85 points in their most recent game. The Hornets have a long-term mark of 60-36 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Also, Charlotte is 7-2 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. On the season, when the Hornets are at home and their line ranges anywhere from +3 to -3, the over has gone 7-2 and we are in that "sweet spot" here with this line. The Raptors come into this game off of a rare, ugly, low-scoring game and I expect them to respond appropriately after their 94-89 loss at Philly. Toronto had gone 5-1 to the over in their 6 games prior to the ugly loss to the Sixers. The over is 5-1 this season (and 25-14 the last 3 seasons) when the Raptors are off of an upset loss as a favorite. When off of a divisional game, Toronto is 7-2 to the over this season. In games with a posted total of 210 or greater, the over is 14-8 in Raptors games this season. As you can see from all of the above trends (including the 210 and over trends), the big total posted on this game is absolutely justified. Toronto had averaged 120 points per game in their 6 games prior to the loss to the 76'ers. The Hornets had allowed an average of 112.4 points per game before their strong defensive effort against a stumbling Trail Blazers team. Their offense has averaged 108 points per game in their last 6 home games. 8* OVER the total in Charlotte early Friday evening |
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01-18-17 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 136 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
MVC Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #543 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Northern Iowa Panthers vs Loyola-Chicago Ramblers @ 8 ET - The Ramblers have gone over the total in 10 straight games and are 12-1 to the over in their last 13 games that had an O/U line. Loyola-Chicago has been shooting the ball extremely well including from three point land. The Ramblers are averaging 77.4 points per game on the season. I don't foresee Northern Iowa as being able to slow them down. The Panthers allowed 77 points to Loyola in the first match-up this season. Northern Iowa didn't shoot very well in that game (though it still went over the total) but I look for the Panthers to shoot the ball much better at home. The Panthers overall numbers on offense this season do not impress but they are a "different team" when they are at home. On the season, Northern Iowa's home games have seen the Panthers average 71 points per game while knocking down 46% of their shots from the field including 37% of their shots from beyond the arc. The over is 3-0 this season when the Panthers are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, the over is 4-2 in Northern Iowa's home games and all 5 of their conference games had gone over the total prior to their under versus Drake Sunday. The Ramblers are 6-0 to the over in road games this season and 6-0 to the over in their conference games and 5-1 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record. They are shooting so well that they are full of confidence and will score well even though they are on the road while I look for the Panthers to also play very well on the offensive end as they continue to enjoy success on their home floor. Look for the over to go to 11-0 in Loyola-Chicago's last 11 games with another high-scoring shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Northern Iowa |
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01-15-17 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 195.5 | Top | 87-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Total - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 2:05 ET Sunday - The Mavericks finally were getting healthy and now Andrew Bogut is out. The way that hurts the Mavs is on the defensive end. He's their leader in rebounding (including defensive caroms) and is also their top shot blocker. He doesn't score much at all so the impact of this injury is clearly that it weakens the interior defense of Dallas. Without his presence in the paint, opponents are likely to get more opportunities for scoring close to the bucket as well as second chance scoring opportunities off of offensive rebounds. The Timberwolves are red hot right now with 3 straight wins (and they are on a 4-0 ATS run) so I look for them to come in ready to take advantage of a softening Dallas defense that has allowed an average of 105 points per game in their last 9 games. The Mavericks offensive production has started to pick up as they have shot better than 45.5% from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Also, they've hit at least 39.5% of their three pointers in 6 of their last 9 games. The Timberwolves offense is also hot as they have knocked down 52% of their shots from the field in their last 3 games and they'll stay hot here as they face a Dallas lineup that is likely to be willing to "run and gun" at home off of a big win over Phoenix that totaled 221 points. The over is 30-13 in T-wolves games against teams from the Southwest Division the past 3 seasons combined and Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in Dallas very early Sunday |
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01-15-17 | Rutgers v. Indiana OVER 143 | Top | 57-76 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Hoosiers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - The oddsmakers are good at what they as we all know. That said, when they set a spread it is usually very accurate and that's why the numbers are so tough to beat. The reason I mention that here is because I think they "missed" on this total and let me explain why. They set this line at 16 and the total at 143. That means that if they truly "nailed it" Indiana wins this game 80-64 or 79-63 because those are the two final scores that gets us closest to the total they set. However, what is noteworthy about that is that the Hoosiers are averaging 85 points per game this season and they're now at home, off of a loss, and facing a Rutgers team that has lost 6 straight games and is winless in Big Ten action. On the season the Scarlet Knights are averaging 65 points per game and, even in Big Ten action they have scored at least 60 points in 3 straight games. I look for Indiana to impose their will in this game but I don't like laying big points and I would not be surprise to see the Hoosiers "sag off" on defense once this "game is in hand" which could be the case by early in the 2nd half. As a result, this one should fly over the total easily. The over is 13-3 the last 3 seasons in Rutgers games the past 3 seasons when they are a road dog of 12.5 points or more. The over is 8-2 in Indiana's home games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 the past 3 seasons. The Hoosiers are averaging 89 points per game at home this season. Indiana is shooting 54% from the field (including 42% from three point land) in home games this season. The Hoosiers offense will prove unstoppable against a Scarlet Knights defense that is allowing an average of 78 points per game on the Big Ten road and now faces the Big Ten's most potent offense. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana very early Sunday |
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01-14-17 | Pelicans v. Bulls UNDER 206 | Top | 99-107 | Push | 0 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 5:05 ET - The Bulls have issues with the flu bug and that has impacted their star Jimmy Butler as well. However, the bigger issue for Chicago has been that, no matter who has been on the floor, they haven't been shooting the ball well for many weeks. Amazingly, the Bulls have been held under 41.8% from the field in 10 of their last 13 games. Not surprisingly, the under is on a 14-6, 70% run in their last 20 games as the shooting woes have been an issue. The Pelicans are expected to have leading scorer Anthony Davis back on the floor for this one but the over is 11-4 in the last 15 games for New Orleans. The Pelicans have been much better on the defensive end of late as they have held 7 straight teams to 43% or less from the floor. The under is 12-4 (75%) in non-conference games for New Orleans this season. The Bulls enter this game on a 3-game losing streak and the under is 13-3, 81% the past three seasons (including a perfect 4-0 this season) when Chicago enters a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. With this total spiking up even though Davis still has a sore hip and the Bulls still are fighting off the effects of the flu, I'll gladly grab the value on the other side. 10* UNDER the total in Chicago |
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01-13-17 | Detroit v. Oakland OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
TV Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Detroit Titans @ 7 ET - The Golden Grizzlies have been an "under team" this season but Oakland is averaging 79 points per game on the season and they're set for an offensive explosion here. The Grizzlies are off of an ugly 57-56 win at Illinois-Chicago Sunday. Oakland is 10-4 to the over as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points and the Titans defense is porous. Detroit is allowing 84.5 points per game this season and teams are hitting a ridiculous 51.2% from the field against them including 39% from three point land. The key to the over here is the fact that, as bad as the Titans defense is, they do score well. Detroit has scored 70 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and are averaging 74 points per game this season. The over is 21-12 in Titans road games the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the over is 14-7 in Detroit games the past 3 seasons when they are off of a loss against a conference rival. The average score of the last 3 meetings between these teams is Oakland 91, Detroit 86. That's 177 points and none of those 3 games went to OT either. Look for this one to easily fly over the total as the Golden Grizzlies will be happy to run and gun at home after the ugly, low-scoring win at Illinois-Chicago. As for the Titans, free-flowing games with very little defense is truly the only way they know how to play. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland early Friday evening |
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01-11-17 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 209.5 | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76'ers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET Wednesday - New York and Philadelphia rank near the top of Eastern Conference for pace. Of course that's why this total is up "rather high" as you would expect when teams like this match-up. The key to the over is the fact that their defense also leaves a lot to be desired as the Knicks are one of the worst teams in the league for defensive efficiency while the Sixers also rank in the lower half of the league. New York will be happy to push the pace in this one as they are fired up after being held to just 96 points in their most recent game. The Knicks had averaged 110.8 points per game in their 5 prior games. New York has allowed an average of 115.5 points per game in their last 6 games. As for Philly, they have allowed 107.4 points per game in their last 11 games. The last 3 meetings between these teams have all resulted in an over. The Sixers are off of a double digit win at Brooklyn. The over is now 4-2 in 76'ers divisional games this season. Also, the over is 8-5 the L13 times the Sixers were off of a game they won by 10 points or more. Look for New York to respond off of their poor effort against the Hornets as they are 11-5 to the over when they are off of a non-conference game. Also, both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony are listed as probable for this game (at least as of Tuesday night) and it's "go time" for me as this total is likely to move upward on gameday. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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01-10-17 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 158 | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Cash ESPN - Rickenbach CBB Game #537 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Vanderbilt Commodores vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - This total opened up at a 160 and has already been pushed down a little to 158 at the time of this write-up. We get some value here because Vandy is off of an ugly game at Alabama. That was a hard-fought loss that the Crimson Tide won 59 to 56. That is helping to impact the markets here when, the fact is, we should see this game top out in the 175 range! The Commodores have averaged 79.4 points per game this season (and shot 47.6%) in their home games. The Wildcats come in with the most dangerous offense in the nation. UK has averaged 94.2 points per game this season and they are hitting 49% from the field. They can beat you anywhere on the floor and the over is 7-3 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. For Vanderbilt, when they are passed the midway point of the season and facing a team with a winning record, the over has gone 16-10 the past two seasons. The Commodores, other than the Crimson Tide game of course, have had good ball movement on offense and they've shot well from three point land - 40.3% this season! The Wildcats have scored 96 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The over is 14-9 in Kentucky's road games the past three seasons. UK has revenge for a loss at Vanderbilt last season. That said, I don't expect the Cats to let up at all at any point in this game. However, the Commodores also have a 7-footer inside who has been scoring well of late to complement their hot shooting from beyond the arc and I expect Vandy to hang around in this one. They lose by double digits but they score enough to send this one flying over the total because I expect Kentucky to "put on a clinic" on offense. 10* OVER the total in Vanderbilt |
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01-09-17 | Thunder v. Bulls OVER 207.5 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Bulls vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET Monday - Even though the Bulls game Saturday went into overtime and that contributed to the big final score, the fact is the game was well over the total by the end of regulation. Chicago games have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5. The Bulls have allowed 48% from the field in their last 5 games and that trend is unlikely to stop here. The Thunder come into town having averaged 115.7 points per game in their last 3 games and both Russell Westbrook of OKC and Jimmy Butler of the Bulls are looking to stay red hot and will be eager to put on another "show" in this one. Both guys have been two of the hottest scorers in the league recently. Oklahoma City has allowed 49% from the field in their last 4 road games and the over is 3-0 in the last 3 games for the Thunder. Both these teams are very confident right now with the way they have been clicking in the offensive end and, with both teams off of wins (including 3 straight for the Bulls), defense could be an "afterthought" tonight. Oklahoma City likes to play at a fast pace (their pace factor of 100.2 is higher than any other Eastern Conference team other than Brooklyn) so look for the Eastern Conference Bulls to be pushed into playing this one at a little higher pace than they usually do. That will only help our cause here of course and the Bulls will be happy to run and gun a bit since they've been putting up huge points in their win streak! 10* OVER the total in Chicago Monday |
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01-09-17 | St. John's v. Georgetown UNDER 154.5 | Top | 55-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Georgetown Hoyas vs St John's Red Storm @ 6:30 ET Monday - The Hoyas are very hungry for a win so I expect them to really have the defensive intensity turned up for this game. This is even more likely because they have a non-conference game on deck so Georgetown knows that it's now (or having to wait another week) if they want to notch a W in Big East action. The Johnnies also are going to turn up the heat defensively. Their coach ripped them about defense after they allowed 97 to Xavier on Saturday. Look for the Red Storm to bring a better effort here and they had been a little better on that end of the floor early this season. They just didn't "bring it" on Saturday. The Hoyas are allowing only 41.3% from the field this season. St John's has allowed 43.4% from the field and I expect a big performance from the defense here after back to back poor efforts versus Creighton and Xavier. The under is 4-1 when the Red Storm are a road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The under is 11-4 when St John's is off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Georgetown is 5-1 to the under this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Also, the under is 9-3 in Hoyas games against teams with a losing record. That means we have a combined 29-9 mark in favor of the under in this one and I look what both coaches are saying heading into this match-up. It should be a game with plenty of defensive intensity. 10* UNDER the total in Georgetown early Monday evening |
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01-07-17 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 197 | Top | 97-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Atlanta Hawks @ 8:35 ET Saturday - The first total seen on this game was a 201 but it got knocked down quickly. The markets were trying to say that the odds makers were making a mistake and I am here to say that they weren't! This game should easily get well over 200. The long-standing reputation of Dallas this season has been as an "under team" because they were involved in so many ugly, low-scoring games in the first couple months of the season. However, the Mavericks have averaged 103 points per game in their last 6 games and they've allowed an average of 106 points per game in their last 6 games. As for Atlanta, the over is 6-3 in their last 9 road games after an "under driven" trend on the road earlier this season. The Hawks are averaging 104 points per game in their last 7 games and they've allowed an average of 106 points per game in their last 13 games. There is just no reason not to expect this game to get over the total the way these two teams have been trending of late. Yes, they've each had some unders of late but look at the actual numbers and you'll see that this total has been pushed to low by the marketplace. The over is 6-3 in the Mavericks last 9 home games and also 3-1 this season in the Mavs games against teams from the Southeast division. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Saturday |
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01-06-17 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 211.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET Friday - Both teams come into this game with fresh legs as each team is off of back to back off-days. The Wizards are an incredible 24-8 to the over the past 3 seasons combined when they enter a game off of two days off. The Timberwolves come into this one ready to get back on track after a rare occurrence in that they have been held to 91 points or less in back to back games. Of course the T-wolves lost both games and I look for them to ready to get back on track tonight in a big way but they'll be in for a shootout with a Wizards teams that loves to "run and gun" in spots like this as evidenced by their past history. Minnesota is 15-8 to the over the past 3 seasons when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Timberwolves are 4-1 to the over on Friday nights this season. The Wizards have scored 105 points or more in 14 of their last 18 games! The over is 13-5 in those 18 games and I look for another Washington game to end up soaring over the total by the time this one is in the books Friday night. This season, when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more, the Wizards have gone 14-8 to the over. Fresh legs, non-conference game, each team has a conference foe on deck in their next game...all these factors should equate to plenty of scoring in tonight's match-up. 10* OVER the total in Washington Friday |
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01-06-17 | Western Michigan v. Akron OVER 151 | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Friday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Akron Zips vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 6:30 ET - The total may look a little "big" here but it is absolutely justified and I expect this game to get up into the 160s. Both these teams are on an 11-6 run to the over in January games. Western Michigan is off of an abysmal performance on offense in their most recent game but they are 5-2 to the over when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. The Broncos defense, as usual, was absent in their most recent game and they are 3-1 to the over this season when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Western Michigan has allowed 50% or higher field goal percentages in 9 of their last 11 games. Amazingly, the only 2 games the Broncos did not get 'lit up' were two non-lined games (against Central Arkansas and Alabama A & M). The point is that Western Michigan's defense has functioned like a sieve this season and Akron is a strong team that is making nearly 50% of their shots from the field this season and nearly 40% of their three pointers on the season. The Zips have averaged 88 points per game in their last 4 games but they have allowed 47% or better from the field in 3 of those 4 games. Western Michigan, before getting obliterated in their most recent game, had averaged 77 points per game in their 4 prior games. The spread here is the Zips by about a dozen and, as you can see from the above, an 89-77 game would not be a surprise. That said, look for this one to fly over the total. 8* OVER the total in Akron early Friday evening |
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01-04-17 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 205.5 | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 8* UNDER the total in Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET Wednesday - The Hawks are off of an upset win over the Spurs. That came in OT. Also, 2 games back, Atlanta beat New York in OT. Looking at the points scored in regulation only, the Hawks have allowed only 94 points per game in their last 6 games. Also, Atlanta is playing with triple revenge here. They have lost to Orlando three straight times and that includes two in a row at home. That said, the Hawks would love nothing more than to upset the Magic in Orlando. However, the way I see this one playing out is simply a low-scoring hard-fought battle that would not surprise me if Atlanta wins by a margin very close to the point spread. The value here is with the under as the Hawks will force the Magic offense to slow down as their recent strong defensive play continues. Atlanta is only shooting about 42% from the field in their last 6 games but this total is being pushed up high because of their recent OT games. Note that the under is 17-8 the past three seasons in Hawks games when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. In their games as a favorite this season, Atlanta is 14-8 to the under. 5 of their last 7 games have stayed under the total. 8 of Orlando's 13 games against teams with a winning record this season have stayed under the total. Though the Magic have been scoring well of late they are likely to still be without Evan Fournier and the buckets won't come so easy against a revenge-minded divisional team that is playing with extra intensity on that end of the floor. Look for Atlanta's shooting struggles to continue as this one stay under the total. 8* UNDER the total in Orlando Wednesday |
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01-03-17 | Wolves v. 76ers OVER 203.5 | Top | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76'ers vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - This one sets up well for a shootout. The Timberwolves opened up as a 4-point choice here and the over is 6-0 the past 3 seasons combined in games where Minnesota is a road favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The 76'ers are 14-6 to the over in games where they are a home underdog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The Timberwolves are fired up and should come up with a big performance on offense here as they lost (and scored just 89 points) as a home favorite versus Portland Sunday. Minnesota has gone 15-7 to the the past three seasons combined when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, the over is 16-6 in Timberwolves games the past three seasons combined when they are on the road and the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. The 76'ers are 9-5 to the over the past 3 seasons in home games where the posted total is in that same range. Minny is averaging 104 points per game this season but both the T-wolves and Sixers allow about 105 points per game. The 76'ers are averaging 103.4 points per game in their last 8 games and this game should be very free-flowing as neither team excels on defense. Philly has allowed 110.6 points per game in their last 8 games. Minnesota has allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot at least 49% from the field. Look for more of the same tonight. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia Tuesday |
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01-02-17 | Jazz v. Nets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
Total Annihilation Top - Rickenbach 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET Monday - Look for this to be a hard-fought, ugly, low-scoring game. Utah has revenge from a home loss to Brooklyn last spring in the most recent meeting between these teams. The Jazz also are expected to be without point guard George Hill for this game and their depth at point guard was already being tested with Dante Exum still out. Recent Utah games have been very methodical and played at a very slow pace. The under is 9-2 in the last 11 Jazz games and they've averaged a ridiculously low 73 field goal attempts per game in their last 10 games. Of course they're taking on a Nets team that gives up a ton of points and is one of the worst defenses in the league so they should be fine, right? Not in this case. Brooklyn held a players only meeting after their embarrassing road loss at Washington and I look for a much stronger effort on the defensive end as a result tonight. Also impacting the total in this game is the fact that Jeremy Lin is still out and the Nets scored 120 with him in the lineup when they beat Charlotte but they've since lost back to back games without him and have averaged just 97 points per game without him. Utah is unlikely to allow the Nets to get that many here. The Jazz have held have of their last 12 opponents to 94 points or less and are holding teams to just 42.9% from the field this season. The under is 13-5 in Jazz games when Utah enters on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. The under is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 games. 10* UNDER the total in Brooklyn |
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01-01-17 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | 123-114 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:35 ET Sunday - The Lakers are out for revenge here after being held to 80 points (despite 93 field goal attempts) when these teams met in Toronto in early December. Look for Los Angeles to be focused on running and gunning here because revenge is certainly not the only motivation. The Lakers last played on Thursday and they suffered an embarrassing home loss to Dallas where they scored only 89 points! Speaking of embarrassing, the Raptors also played Thursday night and they were a large road favorite at Phoenix but managed only 91 points and lost outright. As you can see, both teams are hungry to "fill it up" tonight and we should see plenty of buckets. The over is 7-1 this season when Toronto enters a game off of 2 days of rest. The over is also 23-14 (including 3-1 this season) when the Raptors are off of an upset loss as a favorite. Overall, in all games this season, Toronto has gone 21-11 to the over! The over is 13-8 this season when the Lakers are playing with revenge and, overall, in all home games LA has gone 10-6 to the over this season. The opening number on this total is a big one but it is absolutely justified in this case as both teams are going to be relentless about pushing the pace throughout this game. The over is 3-0 this season when the Raptors are off of a game where they were held to 95 points or less. 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers Sunday Night |
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12-30-16 | La Salle v. Dayton OVER 151 | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
CBS Sports Network Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dayton Flyers vs La Salle Explorers @ 6 ET - Each of the last 4 meetings between these teams has stayed under the total and not a single game totaled more than 118 points. That said, the odds makers opened up this total at 154.5 and, as you would expect, the markets have reacted and the total has dropped down to a 151. In typical contrarian fashion, I'll gladly fade the move here. La Salle is averaging 84.2 points per game this season but also allowing 83.2 points per game! While the Explorers certainly have their fair share of scoring threats and guys who can "create" on offense, they are sorely lacking in terms of strong defenders on the other end of the floor. Dayton is the superior team here by far so the Flyers won't be "scared" to run and gun with the Explorers here. Dayton knows they can outpace the Explorers in this one and both these teams are hitting at least 37.5% from three point. What is simply incredible is the fact that La Salle is allowing opponents to hit 43.1% from beyond the arc. The over is 5-1 in Explorers games this season and they're facing a Dayton team that is averaging 77.4 points per game this season. The past 3 seasons combined La Salle has gone 9-5 to the over in games against teams who average 77 points or more per game. The Flyers are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season in games where they are favored by 9 points or more. I expect these trends to continue tonight and will take advantage of the increased line value here. 10* OVER the total in Dayton Friday |
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12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
TNT Total Annihilation - Rickenbach 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET Thursday - Cleveland has not shot well at all in their last two games as they were held under 40% from the field in each game. The focus in tonight's game for the Cavaliers, coming off of a loss at Detroit, is to take high percentage shots and improve on the defensive end which certainly will also be the focus of the Celtics as they have allowed 111.3 points per game in their last 3 games. The fact that the most recent meeting between these teams (in early November) totaled 250 points is helping to give us line value here. The posted total on this re-match Thursday is very high and, keep in mind, 8 of 11 prior meetings between these clubs had stayed under the total. Also, the Celtics are on a 5-1 to the under this season in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Even though the Cavs are allowing an average of 103 points per game this season, it is certainly noteworthy that the Celtics are 14-6 to the under this season in their games against teams who allow an average of 99 points or more per game. Cleveland is on a long-term run of 36-19 to the under in their games against Atlantic Division teams. The Cavaliers will be "geared up" on defense off of the loss and I see the under improving to 3-1 this season in games where the Cavs are off of a loss by 10 points or more. 10* UNDER in Cleveland |
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12-27-16 | Thunder v. Heat OVER 205.5 | Top | 106-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Total - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET Tuesday - Victor Oladipo is likely to still be out for this contest at Miami Tuesday night but the Oklahoma City guard has been out for each of the last 4 Thunder games and all 4 went over the total. OKC is averaging 114.4 points per game in their last 5 games. Their defense has allowed 108 points per game in their last 7 games. Though, in general, Miami has a tendency to play lower-scoring games, the Heat have recently been involved in some hot-shooting games as well. Before their low-scoring loss at New Orleans, Miami had shot 51% or better in 3 of their last 6 games. Also, the Heat defense has not been what it once was. They still hold that reputation and every once in awhile will come up with a big game but Miami, before that low-scoring loss to the Pelicans, had allowed more than 100 points in 15 of their last 19 games. That said, the way Russell Westbrook has been playing, I don't see the Heat slowing down the Thunder here. Of course the big key to the play on the over here is that fact that OKC does give up points in bunches and I am expecting more of the same on Tuesday! The Thunder haven't had to play a back to back in two weeks so they have fresh legs here. The Heat have had 3 days off leading into this one so they'll also be ready to push the pace after scoring just 87 at New Orleans Friday. 10* OVER the total in Miami Tuesday |
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12-27-16 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin OVER 125 | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Big Ten ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach CBB 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET Tuesday - The Badgers allowed only 37 points in their game against Florida A & M Friday and that is helping to give us some line value here as the markets have reacted by dropping this total from an opener of 128 all the way down to a 125 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that the Badgers do play strong defense but also their offensive is under-rated. This Wisconsin team is averaging 78 points per game and they've scored at least 67 points in all but one of their games this season. Though Rutgers has faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Badgers have, the Scarlet Knights have built up confidence with their 11-2 start this season and they are averaging 73.4 points per game this season. As a road dog of 12.5 or more points the Scarlet Knights have gone 12-2 to the over the past three seasons. Including in that number is a perfect 3-0 tightener when they are a road dog in a range of 18.5 to 24 points. Also, in Big Ten action for Rutgers the past two seasons, the over went 25-12. In games with a posted total in the 120s the past two seasons, the Scarlet Knights went 5-1 to the over. Each of the last two meetings between these teams went over the total and Rutgers has scored at least 66 points in 11 of their 13 games this season. A lot of value with this low total here as Rutgers has scored at least 61 points in all their games this season and, even against the Badgers the last two seasons they were never held to less than 57. That means if Wiscy does hold the Scarlet Knights to 57 but wins this one by 20 as they are projected to, then that gets this game total to the mid-130s. 8* OVER in Wisconsin Tuesday |
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12-26-16 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 196.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks @ 8:05 ET Monday - This total has moved downward this morning and that has opened up even more line value on the over in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that Dallas has mostly been an "under team" this season but the Mavericks have allowed 50% shooting from the field in their last 8 road games combined so it's not like they're playing stellar defense away from home. Additionally, they're now visiting New Orleans and the Pelicans are 12-2 to the over in home games where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points this season! Overall at home, New Orleans is on a incredible run of 66-35 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. The Pelicans final game before the Christmas break did stay under the total but they shot a ridiculous 37% from the field in that win. Look for them to bounce back here. The last 5 times that New Orleans is at home and off of game where they were held under 40% from the field, they have averaged 104.6 points per game in their next game. In other words, a big response on offense can be expected from the Pelicans here and, considering that they had lost 11 of 15 before that win over Miami Friday, you can fully expect the Mavericks to hang right with New Orleans in this game. That is precisely why it should fly over the total as well. Look for these teams to make it 4 overs in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans in this match-up Monday evening. Overall, the Pelicans are averaging 105 points per game in their last 9 games but they're also giving up an average of 110.7 points per game in their last 9 games! 10* OVER the total in New Orleans Monday |
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12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 210.5 | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Christmas Day Top Total - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Oklahoma City's games have totaled 215 points or more in 4 straight games and have gone over the total in 3 consecutive games. They have shot over 50.5% from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. As for Minnesota, 3 of their last 4 games have totaled at least 214 points. The Timberwolves have allowed 105 points or more in 12 of their last 14 games. The Thunder defense has sagged off lately and I highly doubt they will pick up in intensity on, of all days, Christmas Day. OKC has allowed an average of 106.2 points per game their last 9 games and I look for a wild one today as both teams continue to allow way too many open looks from the outside and easy drives through the paint on the inside. The T-wolves were favored in their loss versus Sacramento Friday and the over is 15-7 the past three seasons when Minnesota is off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Thunder have averaged 109.6 points per game in their last 5 games versus the Timberwolves so this one sets up well with plenty of run and gun expected. 10* OVER in Oklahoma City |
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12-23-16 | Stephen F Austin v. Southern Miss OVER 134 | 67-64 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - CBB Game #751 Friday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI @ 6:30 ET - Both these teams are off of unders yesterday in this tourney as Stephen F Austin faced Tulsa and had a rare, horrible shooting performance in the 74 to 51 loss to a 6-4 Golden Hurricane team that has been playing solid defense. Southern Mississippi also had a tough shooting night as they faced a 6-4 San Diego State team that has been playing great defense much of this season. The Golden Eagles were held to just 51 points on awful shooting from the floor. Prior to that game Southern Miss had another poor shooting performance against a Mississippi State team that is now 8-3 on the season. The point is that after facing tough defenses both teams are likely to get back on track on the offensive end today as they now face each a weaker defense and a losing team. After each scored 51 points yesterday, both will be looking to light it up today and I expect a good pace with plenty of open looks in this game. Keep in mind, both of these picks are allowing an average of 73+ points per game on the season. Neither team has defended well as the Lumberjacks and Golden Eagles are allowing 46.9% and 45.9%, respectively, from the field this season. Stephen F Austin had averaged scoring 80 points per game in their 4 games prior to yesterday's loss. The Lumberjacks are 11-5 to the over in games where they are favored and they have a great history in games where they have had 1 day or less of rest - a 22-2 SU mark. Of the 3 such games that had an O/U posted, all 3 went over the total. Look for Stephen F Austin to dictate the tempo in this one and there will be plenty of offense for both club's following yesterday's ugliness. 8* OVER the total in the Southern Miss game |
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12-21-16 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 207 | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
NBA Game #709 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder offense is back on track with 111 points per game in their past two games. The Pelicans come into this game averaged 107.3 points per game in their last 6 games. Couple these factors with the fact that this total has dropped with early market movement and it is "go time" with the over in this one. New Orleans likes to run and gun and the Thunder are happy to "join in" on that style of play. Prior to Oklahoma City's loss to Atlanta, 8 of their last 12 games had seen their opponent attempt at least 90 shots from the floor. Also, the Thunder loss to the Hawks was the 3rd time in the last 4 games that OKC has allowed their opponent to make at least 53.7% of their shots from the field. Of course New Orleans is not known for their defense so that sets this one up to be a shootout played at a frenetic pace. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams in New Orleans. Of course that should not be a huge surprise because the over is an incredible 65-34 in Pelicans home games. Also, when the Pelicans are a home dog of 3 points or less the over has gone 12-5. The over is also a perfect 4-0 this season (and 23-11 the past three seasons) when New Orleans is off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. After their big win at Philly last night, the Pelicans keep rolling on offense tonight. 8* OVER in New Orleans |
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12-20-16 | Richmond v. James Madison OVER 131.5 | 75-55 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Early Total Dominator - CBB Game #527 Tuesday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Richmond Spiders @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 135.5 to as low as a 131 as of gameday morning. It is a good value on the over because both teams games have averaged around 140 points a game so far this season so, in my opinion, the move on this total went 4.5 points the wrong way as it should have moved higher. Last year James Madison beat Richmond 87 to 75 so this is a revenge spot for the Spiders. While I don't expect the team to again combine for 162 points I do expect Richmond to push the tempo in this one as they are hungry for revenge in this in-state rivalry game. The Spiders are averaging 72.2 points per game in their last 6 games and the Dukes are off of a loss at Appalachian State but, prior to that game James Madison had scored at least 67 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Of their last 7 games with an O/U posted on the match-up, 6 of the 7 totaled at least 134 points. The over is 10-3 in Richmond's games with a posted total in the 130s and also 12-4 when the Spiders are a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 8-4 when Richmond is facing a team with a losing record. The over is 7-4 when James Madison is a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 4-1 when the Dukes enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Before their loss to Appalachian State stayed just under the total, 5 of the Dukes last 6 games with an O/U posted had gone over the total. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in James Madison |
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12-19-16 | Pistons v. Bulls UNDER 196 | 82-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Black-n-Blue Punisher - NBA Game #706 Monday - Rickenbach 8* UNDER the total in Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are on losing streaks so that means no let-up on defensive intensity here as each team knows they can ill afford to relax on the defensive end. The Bulls are off of a loss to Milwaukee where they shot 30.4% from the field. The Pistons are off of a loss to Indiana where they shot 38.1% from the field. I don't expect any dramatic changes here as the under is now 6-2 in Detroit's last 8 games and 5-1 in Chicago's last 6 games. On the season the Pistons have a triple perfect totals system in effect here. Detroit is 3-0 to the under when off of a divisional game, 4-0 to the under in divisional games, and 6-0 to the under when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulls have a quadruple perfect totals system in effect here. Chicago is 1-0 to the under as a home fave of 3 points or less, 3-0 to the under when playing with 2 days of rest, 5-0 to the under when off of a divisional game, and 2-0 to the under when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Add it all up and you have combined edges here that favor the under to the tune of 24-0, 100% PERFECT this SEASON! I like my chances here with the under in a game that is unlikely to feature many easy points around the basket as these division rivals have great disdain for each other. 8* UNDER in Chicago |
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12-15-16 | Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 210.5 | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - NBA Game #702 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* UNDER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans have totaled 3 overtime periods in just their last 5 games alone and that certainly has skewed their stats as it has inflated the point totals. New Orleans comes into this game off of a 113-109 home loss but note that it was Golden State whom they faced. The Pelicans will look to shore things up on defense after that home loss to the Warriors and that has been evident in situations like this throughout this season. When New Orleans is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more, the under has gone 10-4 in their next game! Also, prior to the Golden State game, the Pelicans had shot less than 40% from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. As for the Pacers, they come into this game off of an ugly 95 to 89 loss at Miami last night. I had the over when Indiana faced Charlotte in their prior game but that play came up short. Last night's loss to the Heat shows that also stayed under the total shows which direction this Pacers offense is likely to be headed for awhile. They are banged up now and also playing their 8th game in 12 days so they may not have their best "shooting legs" on offense to say the least! It's been a tough schedule for Indiana the past two weeks. In their last 4 road games the Pacers have only shot a combined 42% from the field. With both these teams off of losses and looking to bounce back the defense from both teams should be solid here. The under is on a 16-8 run in this series in games played at New Orleans and last season both games (including the one in Indiana) totaled 177 points or less in each game. 8* UNDER the total in New Orleans Thursday |
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12-14-16 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 200.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Month - NBA Game #519 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio vs Boston @ 9:35 ET - The Celtics, without Isaiah Thomas, blew out Orlando in a game that ended up being their 5th over in the last 7 games. However, that has been followed by back to back games where Boston has let big leads get away and each of those two games stayed under the total. As a result, look for the Celtics to "push" all night long in San Antonio tonight. Boston knows they must keep pushing and can't try to sit back on a lead. Of course facing the Spurs ensures that getting and maintaining a lead won't be easy. San Antonio is now 19-5 on the season after the blew out Brooklyn in a game in which they put up 130 points on the scoreboard. After the home loss to Orlando in late November, much was being made of the Spurs struggles at home this season. As a result, San Antonio is pushing a lot more at home and they've scored an average of 118.5 points per game game in their two games at the AT & T Center since the loss to the Magic. Look for the high-scoring trend to continue Wednesday as these Spurs are truly not the defensive-minded Spurs of old. They just aren't the same without Tim Duncan in the middle and Coach Popovich has even gotten a bit "softer" in his ways with this team. Off of an easy win over the Nets, the Spurs have even more reason to "relax" some on defense in this one. For the third straight time when these teams match up, look for an over to result. The Celtics are averaging 104.5 points per game this season and the over is 8-5 this season in Spurs games against teams averaging 99 or more points per game. Also, the over is a perfect 2-0 in SA's games against teams from the Atlantic Division. Boston has had two days off since the loss at Oklahoma City and I look for the Celtics to improve to 3-1 to the over this season in games where they enter with two days of rest. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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12-14-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Ohio OVER 139 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - CBB Game #523 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio University Bobcats vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers @ 7 ET - Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off of a loss at Loyola-Illinois where the Panthers allowed a ridiculous 67.5% shooting percentage from the field. Certainly UW-Milw would like to improve on that here but the problem is that they were repeatedly beaten in the paint. Not only are the Panthers small in the post they are facing an Ohio University team that has good size down low and absolutely is fully capable of dominating them in the paint just like Loyola-Chicago did on Saturday. The one thing the Panthers do have going for them is some hot shooting and this includes hitting 40% or better from three point land in four straight games. The Panthers have averaged 74.7 points per game in their 3 games prior to an ugly loss to Loyola-Illiniois. Look for Wisconsin-Milwaukee to continue the hot shooting and put up big points here but they won't be able to stop the Bobcats inside game. Ohio U is averaging 78..6 points per game this season but, as hot as their offense has been, the Bobcats are getting lax on defense and, in their last two lined games they've allowed at least 46.7% from the field and an average of 88.5 points per game. The over is 6-2 in Panthers games this season and also 14-5 the past three seasons combined in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. Also, when off of a game where they scored 60 points or less, the Panthers have gone 3-0 to the over this season. The over is 7-3 in the Bobcats last 10 Wednesday games and this midweek match-up is conducive to another one flying past the number. 10* OVER the total in Ohio University |
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12-12-16 | Hornets v. Pacers OVER 210 | 94-110 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - NBA Game #501/502 Monday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers have won 5 of their last 8 games even though their defense has not been as sharp. When that starts to happen (winning despite not playing solid D) there is a tendency to subconsciously "let up" on defense. Not surprisingly, the over is 6-2 in Indiana's last 8 games. The Pacers have allowed a field goal percentage of 48.7% or more in 3 of their last 4 games. They're hosting a Charlotte team that has gone 5-1 to the over in their last 6 road games. Indiana has allowed an average of 115 points per game in their last 6 games. The Hornets have allowed an average of 107.3 points per game in their last 6 road games. This total is hovering right around the 210 mark and the over is 9-5 in the Pacers 14 games with a posted total of 210 or higher this season. The Hornets are 3-0 to the over this season in their games with a posted total of 210 points or higher. Charlotte is also 5-1 to the over the past three seasons in road games where they are an underdog of 3 points or less down to a pick'em. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 8* OVER the total in Indiana early Monday evening |
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12-10-16 | Wichita State v. Oklahoma OVER 140.5 | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - CBB Game #547/548 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Wichita State Shockers @ 4 ET - Both teams have a lot of new faces this season but production has been strong with each team averaging 80+ points a game so far this season. With this total dipping down from 146 to a 140 there is excellent line value on the over in this one. With the youth on each team their defensive rotations to the ball and switching off of screens, etc. is not always at its best early in the year and there are a lot of scorers for each team that can "fill it up". The Sooners tougher games this season (Wisconsin, Clemson, Northern Iowa) have seen them allow 76 points per game. Wichita State allowed 77 points in their most recent tough match-up as they faced Michigan State. Since that game, on the other end of the floor, the Shockers have shot the ball very well and have averaged 81 points per game. The Sooners also have been on fire and have shot the ball very well in their past three games and this includes nailing a high percentage of threes which has been a strong trend for Oklahoma so far this season. Of course success with the 3-ball is a key to winning overs and the over is 3-0 in the Sooners last three games and 2-0 in Wichita State's last 2 non-home games. The over is 9-4 in Oklahoma's December games the past three seasons combined and the Shockers are on a long-term 5-1 run to the over in games against Big 12 teams. In a non-conference match-up featuring two teams that are not very familiar with each other, look for the offensive skills to be tough to stop here in what should be a shootout! 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma Saturday afternoon |
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12-09-16 | Georgia Southern v. Minnesota OVER 142 | Top | 49-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #719/720 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 9 ET - The Golden Gophers have some impressive defensive numbers so far this season but those were impacted by a grudge matches with Vanderbilt and Southern Illinois and then playing weak foe (non-lined game) when they faced Mount St Mary's. In the Golden Gophers other 6 games they have allowed an average of 73.5 points per game. Georgia Southern is a SunBelt Conference team that returned all starters and can put up big points. The weakness for the Eagles is they can't stop a talented team like the 8-1 Golden Gophers from also putting up big points. Minnesota has averaged 75.7 points per game this season. Georgia Southern has averaged 78.6 points per game this season and, like most SunBelt teams, they are not afraid to push the pace and play up-tempo. As a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the Eagles have gone 5-0 to the over the past three seasons. In all road games during that stretch Georgia Southern was a solid 18-7 to the over. In non-conference action the Eagles have gone 6-1 to the over in recent seasons and also 8-2 to the over when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Golden Gophers have gone 6-1 to the over the past three seasons when they are a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. With the drop on this total (opened up at 146 yesterday), there is even more line value with the over in this match-up. Both teams are comfortable to push the pace in this match-up and the Eagles returned all their offensive firepower from last season. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Friday |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 204 | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Month - NBA Game #505/506 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - This series has been an "under" series historically. That said, why the big total posted on this game? Exactly! The big total is absolutely justified. Knicks games are averaging 211 points this season and they should dictate the tempo in this game. They are the healthier team, they come into this match-up having won 8 of their last 11, but they are weak when it comes to interior defense. That means a big game in the paint from Miami's Hassan Whiteside can absolutely be expected here. The over is "only" 4-2 in the Knicks last 6 road games but the two unders in that stretch averaged 206 points a game. In other words, New York simply doesn't get involved in low-scoring games. This is especially true on the road where they try to push the pace and dictate the tempo so as to not fall into complacency (as can sometimes happen at home). The Heat are off of a loss that stayed under the total but 3 of their prior 4 games went over the total and Miami averaged 107 points per game but allowed 107.5 points per game during that 4-game stretch. Look for more of the same here in game that should cruise over the total by double digits. The over is 3-1 this season in New York games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, the over is 5-2 when the Knicks enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in Miami Tuesday |
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12-05-16 | CS-Northridge v. St. John's OVER 166 | 70-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #723/724 Monday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Cal State Northridge Matadors @ 6:30 ET - St John's is off of a win at Tulane Friday and they put up 95 points in the game and shot lights out. Now they are at home as a double digit favorite and matched up against a team they know they should score 100 against. Cal State Northridge comes into this game off of a big win as well. The Matadors are known for playing an up-tempo game and they put up 79 points in Saturday's win versus Idaho State. Cal State Northridge has already put up at least 78 points in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Red Storm are a 13 point favorite in this game at the time of the write-up. The point is that you're looking at "at least" a 91-78 game based on those numbers and that is why the odds makers had this correct when they opened up the total at 169. The key to the value now is not only the drop to the 166 but the fact that both teams coming into this game confident off of a win, shooting the ball very well, and there is a tendency to overlook defense in a spot like this. This game is all about a "run and gun" affair and both teams are also hitting 40% of their three pointers so far this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Matadors games where they are an underdog this season. The over is a perfect 2-0 in Red Storm games against teams with a losing record so far this season. Cal State Northridge is allowing an average of 90.5 points per game this season but they've gotten some big contributions from a couple of key newcomers and the Matadors, even though they can't stop anybody on defense, will continue to pile up points on the scoreboard. I know this total is a big one, but it should soar past the number. 8* OVER the total in St John's early Monday evening |
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12-04-16 | Bowling Green v. Cincinnati OVER 129.5 | Top | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Top Play - CBB Game #517/518 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 8 ET - Both these teams have been "under" teams this season but that is helping to give us some solid line value on the over in this match-up. That's because of the situational edges here that will play a key factor in this one. The Bearcats are known for their solid defense but it's easy for them to overlook a weak MAC team in this particular spot because Cincinnati is off of a hard-fought low-scoring win over Iowa State and they have a big game with Butler on deck. That said, it will be hard for the Cats to get excited about defensive intensity in this one. As for the Falcons, they do like to play at a fast tempo and their offense got a boost of confidence with averaging 88 points per game in their last 2 games. Those were non-lined contests but facing weaker foes helped Bowling Green get their offense going and, as for the other end of the floor, the Falcons have allowed an average of 76 points per game in their 5 lined games. Cincinnati has already eclipsed the 83 point mark twice this season against weaker competition and the Bearcats did put up 83 when they faced the Falcons last year. Based on spread on this game and the key factors relating to the Cats being willing to just run and gun with the Falcons quite a bit in this one, this should play out as an 83 to 63 type game which puts it well over the total. Bowling Green is a fantastic 10-2 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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12-04-16 | Kings v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | 98-106 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
NBA Smash Special - NBA Game #505/506 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:35 ET - This line has gone from a 211.5 to a 208.5 and this has helped further add to the value with the over in this set-up. I expect plenty of offense in this one as it is a non-conference match-up and both teams go back into conference action after this game. In other words, there is no reason to expect a lot of defensive intensity in this one and I like the pace that both teams have been playing at lately. The Kings simply haven't shot the ball all that well at times but they have averaged 88 field goal attempts per game in their last 5 games. The Knicks have averaged 93 field goal attempts per game in their last 6 games. Don't be surprised if this turns into a "run and gun" affair and, keep in mind, the Knicks are averaging 108 points per game in their last 9 games but they're allowing 107 points per game on the season! New York is off of an upset win as a underdog (they closed as a 2.5 point dog versus Minny) and the over is 3-1 this season when the Knicks are off of an upset win. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in New York |
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11-30-16 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #509/510 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams are known for subpar defense and with each team coming off of an off-day yesterday they have fresh legs ready to push the pace on offense in this one Wednesday. The Timberwolves have allowed at least 50.6% from the field and at least 112 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Knicks have allowed an average of 107 points per game in their last 7 games. New York has been happy to push the pace (95.5 field goal attempts per game in their last 4 games). Minnesota also has pushed the pace well with 85.4 shot attempts per game in their last 5 games. Each of the Knicks last 3 road games have resulted in overs. 4 of the Timberwolves last 6 home games have resulted in overs. The over is 5-2 the last 7 when Minny is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The over is 20-13 when the T-wolves are off of a divisional game. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Knicks are 13-8 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Look for more of the same tonight as these teams get into another high-scoring shootout as they have both been playing particularly weak defense of late. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-29-16 | Buffalo v. Creighton OVER 154 | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #737/738 Tuesday - 8* OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs Buffalo Bulls @ 8:30 ET - Creighton is off of their worst shooting performance from beyond the arc this season and yet they still scored 82 points. That shows you just how potent this Blue Jays offense is and, after connecting on only 27.6% of their three pointers against Loyola-MD, look for Creighton to resume the hot shooting tonight. The Blue Jays are averaging 91.8 points per game and they're facing a Bulls team that allowed Xavier, the toughest opponent they've faced this season, to put up 86 points on them. The odds makers have this line right around a 20 and if Creighton hits their average of 92 that means 72 would be expected of the Bulls and that pushes this one clear of the current total of 154 (as of early Tuesday morning) by a double digit margin and that has me "in play" in this one. Even though CJ Massinburg has been out for the Bulls, Blake Hamilton and Willie Connor are both very strong perimeter players. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games and 7-3 in the Blue Jays last 10 games where they have been a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Creighton is not known for their defensive intensity as they are allowing 74.8 points per game so far this season and have not held any of their first six opponents under 40% from the field and I expect this one to be a fast-paced "run and gun" affair and will take advantage of the initial downward movement on this total. 8* OVER the total in Creighton |
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11-28-16 | Butler v. Utah OVER 142 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #523/524 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Both teams are undefeated as the Bulldogs are 6-0 and the Utes are 4-0 so far this season. What I like about that is that oftentimes winning streaks will mask defensive shortcomings. When a team is winning you feel like you can do no wrong no matter how you're playing and the key here is that both teams are full of confidence on the offensive end too. Utah has shot 49.8% from the field this season and averaged 89 points per game while Butler has shot 50% from the field and averaged 80.2 points per game game so far this season. The Utes have great numbers on defense but, keep in mind, they have played a super easy schedule. The toughest 'test' so far for Utah was against Cal-Riverside Friday and the Utes did allow 67 points in that game. The Bulldogs are going to give the Utes defense an even tougher test but Butler will also find that Utah is capable of big scoring runs at home. Both teams are playing with so much confidence offensively that there will be no reluctance to push the tempo and to take shots early in the shot clock. I expect the pace of this game to therefore be very conducive to a solid over. There is an infusion of youth and new talent for each of these teams and that means defensive breakdowns when facing guys who are strong off of the dribble and can create open looks for others. The over is 9-3 in Utah's November games the past 3 seasons combined and the Utes are also 18-9 to the over in non-conference games with a posted O/U the last 3 seasons. Look for more of the same tonight as Butler's productivity on offense has been impressive this season but the Utes, at home, will hang right with the Bulldogs all the way through this one. The result is a high-scoring, up-tempo affair. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah |
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11-25-16 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 209.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #715/716 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - We are being offered significant line value here as this total has dropped a little early Friday morning and the fact is the over is 8-1 in the Raptors last 9 games and there is no reason to expect that trend to stop here. Toronto has scored at least 112 points in 7 of their 8 road games this season. They're visiting Milwaukee and the Bucks are off of a low-scoring home win but previously had scored at least 106 points in 6 of their first 7 home games this season. As you can see, the Raptors are a small road favorite here and a 112-106 type game certainly would not be a surprise and, given the numbers above, is actually quite likely! Milwaukee shoots much better at home than on the road while Toronto has shot better on the road compared to at home this season. This game is truly the perfect set-up for an over! When the Raptors are off of a non-conference game they have gone 6-1 to the over this season and 41-26 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Toronto is also 7-1 to the over this season on the road while the Bucks are 7-1 to the over at home this season. With each team off of a win, they may overlook the defensive shortcomings that played a role in the Raptors losing 4 of 5 before Wednesday's win and the Bucks losing 5 of 6 before Monday's win. The result will be a fast-paced affair with plenty of open looks. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee Friday |
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11-24-16 | New Mexico v. Virginia Tech OVER 153 | Top | 72-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
RARE Tourney Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #525/526 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs New Mexico Lobos @ Titan Gym in the Wooden Classic in Fullerton, CA @ 4:30 ET - Both of these teams are 3-0 but have played weak schedules. When this happens, a team's defense tends to relax as it's only natural because, when you're winning, it is easy to just keep rolling along and overlook any defensive shortcomings. That's because, to this point, they haven't cost you anything because you simply keep on winning due to facing out-classed foes. The significance in that here is that both these teams returned plenty of firepower this season in terms of returning starters and big scorers but both teams have had issues with being lax on the defensive end in recent seasons. Virginia Tech is particularly known for this and New Mexico is certainly known for playing a "run and gun" style as well. That said, the fact this total has dropped down from as high as a 158 to as low as a 153 is now offering us fantastic value on the over. The Hokies are 7-2 to the over on a neutral court in recent seasons and also 7-1 to the over in games where the total is in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Also, New Mexico is 10-6 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. After holding in-state rival New Mexico State to only 59 points in their most recent game, look for the Lobos defense to now fall flat in this one after the big rivalry win. 10* OVER the total in the Virginia Tech game Thursday |
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11-23-16 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 214 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics are on a long under streak but the Nets are on a long over streak so something has to give here. The way this one has been set up, and the fact that Brooklyn is at home and will be happy to dictate the pace here, has me expecting a ton of points in this one. The Nets have allowed at least 124 points in 4 straight games! These teams combined for 239 points earlier this season when they met in Boston and a similar result in Brooklyn would not surprise. The Celtics have a much tougher match-up hosting San Antonio coming up Friday so I would not be surprised to see Boston completely willing to "run and gun" with the Nets in this one. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when Brooklyn is off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. The over is 6-2 in the Nets last 8 home games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Look for more of the same on Wednesday night. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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11-21-16 | Oklahoma State v. Connecticut UNDER 154.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Top TV Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #741/742 Monday - 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 9 ET - This total has risen in ridiculous jumps today and I am happy to fade it. After opening up at 146.5 this total has risen to as high as 155.5 and I completely understand the move because Oklahoma State is averaging a ridiculous 107 points per game this season. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have only played 3 games this season and they haven't faced a team that is anywhere close to the quality of this UConn team. The Huskies also are known for playing solid defense. Connecticut has allowed an average of only 64.3 points per game this season and last season the Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game on the full season. That was good for 14th in the nation. The fact is that they are a defensive-minded team and so far this season they have struggled on the offensive end where they are averaging only 61.3 points per game. That sets this one up to be a much tighter, low-scoring match-up than what many are expecting here. Oklahoma State was 10th in the Big 12 last season for scoring as they averaged only 66.5 points per game and they allowed 67.1 points per game last season which was good enough for 2nd in the Big 12. This total has been inflated by the unusual early season stats for the Cowboys and we can step in now and take advantage of that. This total, as noted above, has gotten run all the way up into the 150s and, keep in mind, even when totals have been in the 140 to 149.5 range for the Cowboys the under has gone 12-3 (80%) the last 3 seasons. The Huskies, when off of a non-conference game, have seen the under go 14-7 (67%) the last 3 seasons. 10* UNDER the total in the UConn game Monday night |
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11-21-16 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 208 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are off of one of the ugliest games you'll ever see as they lost 93 to 71 at Memphis on Saturday. Look for Minnesota to respond in a big way as they are back at home for this one and they have averaged 110.5 points per game in their home games so far this season. The OVER is 11-7 when the T-wolves are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite (Minny was small fave Saturday), they have gone 13-5 to the OVER the past 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are hosting Boston and the Celtics are off of an ugly win (94 to 92) at Detroit Saturday. Though the C's have short poorly in recent games, the Minnesota defense has allowed 50.5% from the field in their last 7 games prior to take advantage to facing a poor 76'ers team and an offensively-challenged Grizzlies team. In other words, look for the Timberwolves to resume giving up big points tonight especially with the added focus on the offensive end after Saturday's embarrassing 71-point effort. The OVER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams and Boston shot 50% from the field and averaged 117.5 points per game in the two meetings last season. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OVER in Minnesota Monday evening |
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11-20-16 | NC State v. Creighton OVER 158 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Top Total Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #559/560 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET in San Juan, Puerto Rico - This total opened up at a 160.5 and now has dropped to a 158. Of course this is because the markets see a total in the 160 range and immediately think under. However, this total was big for a reason. The Blue Jays are known for their emphasis on the 3-ball and they've been knocking down shots like crazy from beyond the arc this season. Creighton is hitting 48.5% of their three pointers this season. The weakness for the Blue Jays is rebounding and interior defense. That spells trouble against an NC State team tha thas some solid size inside and that has shot the ball extremely well (60%+) from inside the arc in their last two games. The Wolfpack and Blue Jays are both brimming with confidence as each team has won all 3 of their games and NC State is averaging 84 points per game and Creighton is averaging 90.3 points per game early this season. The over is 5-1 in Blue Jays neutral court games and 8-3 in the Wolfpack's neutral court games. I'll gladly test that combined 13-4 over mark in thise one. 10* OVER the total in Creighton game Sunday |
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11-19-16 | Mavs v. Magic OVER 178.5 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705/706 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 178.5 in Orlando Magic vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have had some pathetic performances on offense recently so this total has, of course, dropped from 184 all the way down to a 178.5 as of late morning Saturday. That means it's go time for me in this one as both teams, off of recent embarrassing performances, will be opening things up offensively in this one and I seriously doubt that either team will again be held below 90 points. Yes I know that Dirk Nowitzki is still hurt for Dallas and that the Mavericks have some other injury issues. However, these are still NBA level players that are capable of scoring the ball and let's take a look at these two defenses. Dallas, before yesterday's ugly loss at Memphis, had allowed at least 90 points in 9 of their first 10 games this season. The Magic, before back to back "snooze fests" had allowed an average of 104.1 points per game in their first 10 games. What this line move is saying is that the odds makers were dead wrong with the total they set and, trust me, the odds makers were aware of all the variables just like we are. It doesn't take much offensive efficiency to get over a total this low and I am all "over" (literally!) this one! 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves OVER 212 | Top | 86-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
TNT Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #707/708 Thursday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers rested their leading scorer, Joel Embiid last night (a home win over Washington) so he's ready to go tonight. Also, Jahlil Okafor will get some action again tonight after playing in last night's game. That means the Sixers are in good shape at the center position for this one. The key to this play is that it is a match-up of two of the youngest teams in the league. The younger players are known for taking time to jell as a unit and their inexperience results in not rotating properly on defense, not making switches when they should, etc. The result is generally wild, high-scoring games and it should come as no surprise that yesterday's win over the Wizards resulted in Philadelphia's 7th over in their last 9 games. As for Minnesota, they've gone over the total in 5 straight games. The Timberwolves are fired up off of a tight home loss to Charlotte Tuesday so there is no doubt they will be ready to push the pace and avoid turnovers as they play a much "cleaner" game on offense than they did against the Bobcats. That should be easy against a Sixers team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. By the way, the T-wolves are right there with Philly in terms of being among the worst teams on defense in the league. The over is 16-9 in Sixers road games where they are a dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the 76'ers are a perfect 3-0 to the over against teams with a losing record this season. The Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over against non-conference opponents this season and I look for a 6th straight over for Minny tonight. 10* OVER in Minnesota Thursday |
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11-14-16 | Villanova v. Purdue OVER 148 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #531/532 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - Purdue has one of the biggest frontcourts in the country and, as a result, there is no way that Villanova wants to turn this game into a half-court affair. The Wildcats are built well for being able to get quick points in transition and use their outstanding guard play to score big points in this one. In terms of the inside game, the Boilermakers are going to be able to score a ton of points in the paint including with second chance opportunities as their big men will certainly grab some offensive caroms in this one. The Cats put up 88 points in their season opener while Purdue scored 109 and the Mackey Arena will be rocking tonight for this HUGE game! The over is a long-term 14-6 in Villanova road games where their line ranges from pick'em up to a -3. Also, the over is 15-7 the last 3 seasons in all Wildcats road games. Additionally, the over is a long-term 15-5 in Nova road games where the posted total is in a range from 145 to 149.5 points. Tonight, with the Cats wanting to push the tempo and play small ball and the Boilermakers willing to engage in some running and quick transition points as they take advantage of the raucous atmosphere in West Lafayette, look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Purdue's last 12 games against Big East opposition. This should be a wildly entertaining early-season affair. 10* OVER the total in Purdue early Monday evening |
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11-07-16 | Rockets v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
#1 Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #703/704 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets have a big game on deck at San Antonio so I don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's best for this non-conference match-up with the Wizards. Houston has already allowed 50.6% or better from the field in 3 of their 5 road games this season. The Rockets gave up an average of 120 points per game in those 3 games. The Wizards will have John Wall back after he rested in their most recent game. Washington shot poorly on the road in their Saturday game as Wall sat out. The Wizards also shot poorly in their 2nd home game of the season but in their 1st one they shot 58.3% from the field and I look for the Wiz to bounce back after a day off followed rare, poor shooting on back to back nights. The Rockets also are looking to respond off a 112-97 loss at Atlanta Saturday and Houston has gone 24-15 to the over when off of a loss by a double digit margin. With this total dropping from it's opener there is even more value with the over and I will make this my first top of the season in what should be a very high-scoring affair with the Wizards also in a lookahead with Boston on deck. Not a lot of defense is likely to be seen in this non-conference match-up given the situation. 10* OVER the total in Washington Monday evening |
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11-05-16 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 204.5 | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Saturday - 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento Kings @ 8:05 ET -Â The Kings are off of a game that stayed under the total that had no business being an under on Thursday. The total was a 197 and the game had 162 points through 3 quarters. The fact the game ended up being Sacramento's 4th under in their 6 games this season helps lead to line value here as this total is being kept lower than it should be. The Bucks are 4-1 to the over this season and will have no qualms about pushing the pace on their home floor. Also, Milwaukee hit 58% from the floor in their 125-107 win over Indiana and they have scored 110 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Kings have allowed at least 102 points in 5 straight games. In road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points Sacramento is on a 7-2 run to the over. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams all went over the total. Like a typical non-conference match-up, the defensive intensity is not the same as you would see in, for example, a rivalry game. That said, look for plenty of open looks and open drives to the bucket in this one. 8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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11-05-16 | Wizards v. Magic OVER 199.5 | 86-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #707/708 Saturday - 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Wizards John Wall is expected to be given a day of rest in this back to back spot has resulted in a downward line move with this total. This has led to great line value on the over in this match-up. The Magic are off of a game that stayed under the total that had no business being an under on Thursday. The total was a 197 and the game had 162 points through 3 quarters. The fact the game ended up being Orlando's 3rd under in their last 4 games also helps lead to line value here as this total is being kept lower than it should be. The Wizards had a rare, strong defensive effort last night as they were in a revenge spot against Atlanta. Prior to that game though Washington was allowing 113 points per game and I look for their defensive struggles to resume tonight. The Magic have allowed 47.5% or better shooting from the field in 4 of their 5 games. Orlando is no defensive juggernaut despite the recent stretch of unders. The over is 23-16 in Wizards games in the 2nd of a back to back situation. Also, Washington is on a 25-15 run to the over in divisional games. The Magic are on a 9-5 run to the over when they are a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 games. 8* OVER in Orlando |
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11-03-16 | Kings v. Magic OVER 197 | 94-102 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #701/702 Thursday - 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - Neither one of these teams has been getting the job done on defense. The Magic were supposed to be improved in terms of interior defense but that hasn't shown up yet this season and now they'll be dealing with a fully focused and fired up DeMarcus Cousins of the Kings. The big man should have his way inside in this game and, at the same time, he may have to back on the other end of the floor because foul trouble cost Cousins and the Kings in their OT loss at Miami Tuesday as he fouled out and missed the overtime period. Sacramento wants to keep Cousins on the floor and their defense may have to sag a little in this game as a result and I expect Orlando to take advantage. The Magic have shot 45% from the field in their last two games so they are starting to find their rhythm after horrid shooting in the first two games of the season. The Orlando D has been an issue as 3 of their 4 opponents have shot at least 48.5% from the field. The Kings struggled to make shots against San Antonio in an early season match-up but in the other 3 games that made up their first 4 of the season, Sacramento knocked down at least 45.9% in all 3 games. Now, after an ugly shooting effort at Miami Tuesday, look for the Kings to resume knocking down their shots as they catch a Magic team off of their first win of the season. Another note about the total here is that, you can tell from the line on this game being so small (very nearly a pick'em) that a tight game is expected. A tight game can lead to a lot of fouling late and plenty of scramble points at the end as one team tries to stay within striking distance in the final minutes. The over is 29-16 in Kings games when they are off of a loss by 10 points or more. Also, the over is 45-29 when Sacramento is facing a team with a losing record. 8* OVER in Orlando Thursday |
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10-31-16 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 211 | 118-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503/504 Monday - 8* OVER in Brooklyn Nets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - Both of these teams are looking to push the pace under their respective head coaches. Fred Hoiberg is in his second year with the Bulls and, after making some personnel changes in the off-season, he now has the right players for the system he wants to run. Hoiberg's goal is a fast-moving, higher-scoring offense and the Bulls have already averaged 111.5 points in their first two games. Kenny Atkinson is in his first season with the Nets and one of the early goals, although it is definitely a rebuild phase for Brooklyn, is to push the pace. The Nets have averaged 109.3 points per game in their first three games this season. Each of the three meetings between these teams last season went over the total. Also, the over is an incredible 27-8 in Bulls games when facing Atlantic Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Nets home games with a posted total of 210 or more. The number is big on this total, but it is absolutely justified. 8* OVER in Brooklyn |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 205 | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 205 in Cleveland vs Golden State @ 9 ET - When you consider what happened in Game 2, it is hard to believe the Cavaliers actually led the Warriors very late in the 3rd quarter of Game 1. The fact is that Sunday's game was simply a "train wreck" for the Cavs and a return to Cleveland with an extra off day between games should do wonders for this team. LeBron James and company are, of course, very nearly "left for dead" at this point in the series but I don't see the will of James allowing this team to totally get trampled. If they do fail to get the win tonight and go down 3-0 in this series, I wouldn't see that happening without a huge effort on the offensive end in front of the home fans tonight. That said, whether or not Cleveland manages to get back into this series with a win in Game 3, I do expect plenty of offense from James and company in this one. The Cavs were thoroughly embarrassed in the 33 point loss on Sunday as they scored just 77 points. It's hard to believe that this is a Cleveland team that had scored at least 100 points in 26 of their last 29 games prior to this series. Look for the Cavs to respond in a big way tonight. The Cavaliers are happy to be back home where they have scored at least 99 points in 20 straight games. Before Sunday's ugly loss, the Cavs had been 6-3 to the over this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Look for them to respond big here. The over is 7-1 this season in Golden State games when the Warriors are off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. It is no fluke either as their record in that situation the past three seasons combined is 20-7 to the over! It is only natural to have a let up on defense after you've thoroughly dominated an opponent and that is what I expect to see tonight. The Warriors will still score plenty but their defense "lets down their guard" in this one. Expect a shootout here. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-27-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196 | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 196 in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 8:35 ET Friday - A crazy fourth quarter prevented Game Five of this series from going over the total on Wednesday night. Even though the game was a Cavaliers blowout, it still should have had more scoring in the fourth quarter than it did and definitely was a crazy finish that frustrated totals players (like us) who seemed to have the right side of the total for nearly the entire game. To come right back with the over here certainly requires justification and we have that here. The Cavaliers had a poor effort in Game 3 at Toronto as it was almost as if they underestimated the Raptors after so handily winning each of the first two games at Cleveland. Other than that dismal 84 point effort, note that the Cavs have averaged 109.5 points per game in the other four games of this series. In other words, they'll "get theirs" Friday at Toronto as they look to close out the series. However, throughout these playoffs, the Raptors have already shown they are a different team when they are at home. Toronto has won 5 of their 6 home games in the past two series (with the Cavs now and with the Heat previously) and the Raptors have averaged 102 points per game in these home games. If we get the Raptors to the 102 mark they've been averaging at home (where they've been shooting much better than on the road) and the Cavs when this game by 6 points as they are forecast to, this game gets up into the 210 range for points. Of course the reason the total is being held so low here is because the odds makers have had to over-adjust due to some crazy finishes like we saw in Game Five that have helped lead the way to some unders in this series that should not have occurred. After getting embarrassed on Wednesday, look for the Raptors to come up with a huge effort in Game 6. However, the Cavaliers are certainly surging with confidence after the huge win and looking to close this out. Being that this is an elimination game and it is projected to be close late (based on the 6 point line) you can certainly expect late fouls and free throws to help our cause here, if even needed! The fact is I expect this one to fly over the total as the Cavs know they need to keep the "pedal to the metal" but the Raptors play with so much more confidence in the offensive end when at home. The over is 9-4 this season when Cleveland is off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. The over is 11-5 the last 3 seasons combined when Toronto is off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Raptors also are 24-10 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 220 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 220 in Golden State vs Oklahoma City @ 9 ET - Three of the four games so far in this series have stayed under the total. But Game Four was nothing short of ridiculous as the teams combined for 176 points through 3 quarters so they were on pace for about 235 points for the game. Inexplicably, Golden State fell apart with a 12 point performance in the fourth quarter and the game fell well short of going over as a result. This is helping to give us line value in Game Five because this total has come down some more and yet certainly the Warriors are unlikely to fall apart in the fourth quarter of this game. In fact, they're facing playoff elimination and they're on their home floor and they will battle this to the very end if the Thunder have the late lead. Of course, the Warriors are a 7 point favorite for a reason but, although I expect them to put up big points here, they have proven incapable of slowing down the Thunder. Oklahoma City has scored an average of 115 points per game in their three wins over the Warriors in this series and the Thunder are simply loaded with confidence right now as they are getting contributions from all over the floor. The last time Golden State was playing at home off of a loss in this series it was Game 2 and the Warriors but up 118 points in that win, their lone victory so far in this series. I don't see the Warriors going away without a fight and that means a huge performance should be expected from them tonight with offense leading the way as they will step up with a much better shooting performance now that they are back on their home floor. The over is 5-2, 71% this season when the Warriors are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. They respond tonight but the Thunder hang right with them and that means a high-scoring shootout should be expected here. *8* OVER in Golden State |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 199 | Top | 78-116 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 199 in Cleveland vs Toronto @ 8:35 ET - With the Raptors winning both games in Toronto we truly "have a series" now. Toronto has tied things up at 2-2 and is rolling with confidence (even on the offensive end) after scoring 102 points per game in those two games north of the border. As for the Cavaliers, they certainly are not lacking in confidence when it comes to putting points on the board. The Cavs bounce back from scoring only 84 points in Game 3 by scoring 99 in Game 4. Prior to being held under the century mark in these two games, the Cavaliers had scored at least 100 points in 20 straight games. Cleveland averaged 108 points per game during this 20 game stretch and they will be ready to explode (in a positive way) Wednesday night after the back to back losses at Toronto. The reason I am big on the total here and not on the side is that the Cavaliers are very likely to score big tonight but laying double digits with Cleveland doesn't sound particularly appealing considering the Raptors now all the confidence in the world that they can "hang with Cleveland". They proved that in Toronto and now they can carry that over to some better performances south of the border. The over is 6-3, 67% in the L9 Raptors playoff games where Toronto is in a series that is tied. The over is 6-3, 67% this season in Cavaliers games when they are at home and the total is posted between 195 and 199.5 points. Also, the over is 9-5 the last 14 playoff games where Cleveland is in a series that is tied. Additionally, with that game four over, the over is now 14-9 this season when the Cavaliers are playing with revenge. LeBron James and Company will have the pedal to the metal from start to finish in this one. But with the Raptors shooting better and playing with a lot more confidence, the way to go here is with the total and expect an absolute shootout! *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 197.5 | 84-99 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 197.5 in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 8:35 ET - Tough beats for those who had the over in the first two games of this series. Inexplicably, the teams combined for just 37 points in the 4th quarter of game one and 42 points in the fourth quarter of game two. This left each game just one shot short of going over the total. Now in game three we are getting line value with this total having been adjusted downward. The total in the first game opened up at 202.5 and the second game the posted total rose as high as 199 before dropping before tip-off. The point is that this total should be higher than it is. Why? Because both of the first two games had no business staying under the total and there is a key factor as to why game three will go over the total. The Raptors are back home in Toronto and the Cavaliers are about a five point favorite for this one. Of course if this is a tight game late that means extra free throws for the team in the lead and extra three pointers being jacked up for the trailing team. The result should be a bit more of an "extended" game then what we've seen in the first two games of this series. Of course we shouldn't need any late "magic" in this one because I look for the Raptors Lowry and DeRozan to finally shoot better after struggling in the first two games of this series on the road. The Cavaliers are certainly going to get theirs Saturday! 10-0 in the playoffs and the Cavs have scored at least 100 points in 20 straight games and they are averaging 108 points in their last 25 games! The Raptors have averaged 104 points per game at home this season. The over is 24-9 in Raptors games the past three seasons when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. The over is 24-14 in Cavaliers games when they are off of a win by 10 points or more. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198 | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 198 in Cleveland vs Toronto @ 8:35 ET - Game one of this series went over the closing number but it truly was an under for most all bettors as the game did not move below the eventual total of 199 until very late. A ridiculously low-scoring 4th quarter is the only reason that game didn't fly over the total as it certainly was on pace all the way through the first three quarters. Though tonight's game may indeed by decided by close to the dozen points that the Cavs are favored by, it should still end up being much closer than the 31 point Cavaliers blowout win in Game One. That will make certain that we see a much more competitive fourth quarter in this one. In other words, this time the high-scoring carries all the way through. The Raptors will respond after the embarrassing loss and the over is 10-4 this season (and 24-8 the last 3 seasons) when Toronto is off of a loss by a margin of ten points or more. Also, the over is 4-1 this season (and 11-4 the last 3 seasons) when the Raptors are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Cavaliers are 6-2 to the over this season in home games with a posted total between 195 and 199.5 points. Also, when off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less, the over is 9-3 for Cleveland. The over is also 24-13 this season when the Cavaliers are off of a win by a double digit margin. After their biggest margin of victory ever in franchise history playoff action, it is only natural that the Cavs will suffer a bit of a letdown in defensive intensity for Game Two. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 201.5 | Top | 84-115 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 201.5 in Cleveland vs Toronto @ 8:35 ET - The Cavaliers have had a long layoff. The best way to get going after a lot of time off is to have a home game against a team that just had a 2nd straight 7 games series. The Raptors have played 14 games in this post-season while the Cavaliers have played the minimum of 8 as the Cavs are off of back to back sweeps while Toronto has been pushed to the limit in each of their series. The way I see Game One playing out is the Cavs are looking to run the weary Raptors right out of the arena. The Cavaliers will push the tempo, get a lot of points in transition, and continue to knock down their three pointers! Cleveland's offensive production in the postseason has been insane and the home crowd will have the Cavaliers flying all over the floor in this game. The Raptors have seen their backcourt come alive as that keyed their ability to get past the Heat when that series tightened up. Also, they saw Bismack Biyombo step up huge in the paint in Game 7 and they got big point production from him filling in with the absence of Jonas Valanciunas being somewhat overcome. The Cavaliers are averaging 110 points per game in their home games in this postseason. The Raptors have allowed 98 points per game in their last 5 playoff road games. The average score of the last 4 meetings between these teams is Cleveland 109.5, Toronto 103.5 for a total of 213 points per game. This total moved down from it's opening number and this is offering even more value for the over. The Cavaliers want to make a statement in Game One and they will push the tempo on their home floor. The Raptors had their highest scoring road game in each playoff series in their first road game of the series. With the way the Cavs are scoring on their home floor, those two factors combine for what should be a shootout in Game One. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-08-16 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 203.5 | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* UNDER 203.5 in Atlanta vs Cleveland @ 3:35 ET - With the Hawks trying to avoid the sweep and with the last two games flying over the total, this is the perfect spot to back the under. Atlanta knows they aren't going to win a game by getting into a shootout with the Cavaliers. That has already been proven time and time again in this series. The key for the Hawks is to use their strength, defense, to try and stay in this critical Game 4 with the Cavs and then steal the win late. The under is 7-3 this season in Cleveland's road games where the posted total is between 200 and 204.5 points. I am not particularly big on "day of the week" trends but one day I do tend to look at is Sunday trends because it has a lot to do with how teams handle Saturday nights! That said, it's worth noting that the Cavaliers are 23-13 to the under the last 3 seasons in Sunday games and this trend is an amazing long-term 129-68 to the under as well. The under is 6-3 in Hawks Sunday games this season and also 6-3 in all their playoff games this season. The under has gone 20-12 in Atlanta playoff games the last 3 seasons and 67-41 in Hawks playoff games long-term. On a losing streak of 3 games or more the Hawks have gone 15-8 to the under the past three seasons and, as noted above, they must turn to their defense here to avoid the sweep. The under is also 29-16 the last 3 seasons when Atlanta is playing with home loss revenge. The Hawks got completely dominated on the glass in game 3 and I look for a much better effort there as they limit the Cavs "easy, quick points" as much as possible in this crucial game 4 match-up. *8* UNDER in Atlanta |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat OVER 187 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 187 in Miami vs Toronto @ 5:05 ET - Each of the first two games in this series went to overtime and were decided by 6 points or less. That said, I am not touching the side in this match-up as a Heat win by about a half dozen points would not surprise me in the least. In other words, I feel odds makers likely have the side pegged in this one. However, where I do feel that exceptional line value is being offered here is with this total. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that the first two games going to overtime helped them get to higher totals than the games should have. However, I am also well aware of the fact that Miami is fired up, has been a different team at home in these playoffs, and that Toronto's backcourt is due for a breakout game after struggling with their shooting so far in this series. Add it all up and there is great value with the over in this match-up. The Heat have averaged 108 points per game in their four home games so far in the post-season. This is no fluke either as Miami averaged an incredible 112 points per game in going 12-2 in their 14 regular season home games after the All Star break. The Game 5 loss the Heat had against the Hornets in round one where Miami was held to 88 points is the only time in the last 19 Heat home games that they were held under 101 points! That said, the law of averages (and the fact that the Heat are fired up off of a road loss) says that Miami should get to anywhere from 101 to 112 points in this one. Considering how tight this series has been and that the odds makers are unlikely to miss the spread by much in this one, that means we should have a game that totals anywhere from 196 points to 218 points. Again, I know the other games have been lower scoring and that the Raptors have not shot well. But the Heat are going to play a much cleaner game (much fewer turnovers) and are quite simply a different "animal" when on their home floor. By the way, the over is 14-5 the last three seasons in Miami home games with a posted total between 185 and 189.5 points. The over in Heat 2nd round playoff games is on a 5-2 run. The Raptors are 4-2 to the over when tied in a playoff series. *10* OVER in Miami |
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05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks OVER 198.5 | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 198.5 in Atlanta vs Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - After the "craziness" of Game 2 in Cleveland, many will be inclined to back the under in the Game 3 match-up and, in fact, there has been a drop from an opener of 200 down to a 198.5 as of gameday morning. I will fade the line move here and take advantage of the lower number. What bettors have to understand here is that the Cavaliers are the hottest three point shooting team in the league in this post-season and both the Cavs and Hawks are known for jacking up a lot of threes. That, of course, can have a huge impact on the total in an NBA game. Cleveland is the only team that still has not lost a playoff game this postseason. The Hawks will be fired up to respond on their home floor after losing each of the first two games at Cleveland. However, Atlanta's response tonight is not necessarily going to be one that greatly increases defensive efficiency. When a team is shooting like the Cavs are the problem is that if you commit to defending the 3 you invariably weaken your interior defense and that means more drives to the basket for easy buckets. The Cavs simply have so many weapons and so many ways to beat you. That is they they're the best team in the east. I don't like the side here as I do expect the game to be a close one but I do feel strongly that the Hawks will have to score plenty to keep up with the red hot Cavs and that will push this one over the total as Atlanta gets a boost from the home crowd. The Hawks averaged 103.4 points per game at home this season. The Cavs have averaged 107.3 points per game in their last 16 games and have NOT been held under 100 points in ANY of those 16 games. Line value here with this total and the Cavaliers are 23-12 to the over this season when they are off of a win by 10 points or more. The Hawks are 4-2 to the over when trailing in a playoff series. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors OVER 187.5 | Top | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 187.5 in Toronto vs Miami @ 8:05 ET - Winning in the NBA has a lot to do with value. The key here is that everyone is jumping on the under in this game because everyone who watched Game One knows that, of course, it should NOT have gone over the total. It only went over the total because of the ridiculous luck of a half-court shot that went in at the regulation buzzer. Herein lies the key. Whether or not Game One should have gone over the total or not is truly irrelevant. Each game is a standalone game and we must look at the situation for the game as well as the line value. In this case, the total for Game Two is down to a 187.5 and this is after the Game One posted total was as high as a 192.5 in some books. Also, the last regular season meeting these teams had a posted total in the 203 range. The point is that there is a lot of value with this total now dipping as low as it has. This is especially true when you consider that the home team is off of a loss and desperate for a win tonight to even up the series before heading south to Miami. Note that Toronto, the past three seasons combined, is 4-2 to the over when trailing in a playoff series and 6-2 to the over in home games with a posted total in a range of 185 to 189.5 points. As for the Heat, the past three seasons combined, the over is 5-1 in second round playoff games and also Miami is 8-4 to the over when they are leading in a playoff series. The Raptors push the pace in this one and Kyle Lowry (7 points in Game One) is going to respond after having one of his worst games in a long time. Clearly he's hurting some but to score only 7 points? He responds tonight and so do the Raptors and that pushes this one over this low total. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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05-04-16 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 197.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 197 in Cleveland vs Atlanta @ 8:05 ET - Game 1 stayed under the total despite the fact that the Hawks attempted 87 shots from the field. One of the issues was LeBron James not getting to the free throw line for the Cavaliers and I look for free throw attempts to be up in Game 2. There will be a deliberate effort to go to the rack and draw contact throughout this game. Though the Hawks have stayed under in 8 of their last 9 games, note that only 1 of those 9 games has totaled less than 193 points. In other words, the totals have certainly been "right there" for an over but have fallen just short. As for the Cavaliers, their recent unders also have fallen "just short" of going over and the downward move on this total is offering us great line value with the over in Game Two. The Cavaliers are 22-12 to the over this season when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. The Hawks made a huge run late in Game 1 to make a game out of it in the fourth quarter but then the Cavs pulled away late. Look for Atlanta to build off of their comeback effort in game one with an even stronger effort tonight. The Hawks have averaged 102 points per game on the road this season while the Cavaliers have averaged nearly 107 points per game at home this season. Granted this is "playoff basketball" but knowing that the Cavaliers should get a few more "calls" here from the refs plus knowing that the Hawks are going to push even harder in Game Two after seeing their comeback attempt slip away in the latter stages of Game One will prove to be the difference makers in pushing this one over the total. The over is on a 28-13-1 run in match-ups between these teams in Cleveland and the Cavaliers will be pushing the pace even more tonight as there is no long layoff between games like there was before Game 1 for the Cavs. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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04-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 190 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 189 in Charlotte vs Miami @ 8:05 ET - There have been 3 straight unders in this series as the Hornets have stifled the Heat ever since Miami got the two big home wins to open up this series. Even though Game 6 is in Charlotte, it's do or die for the Heat and they know they have to push the offense tonight or their season is over. Why is the offense so critical to Miami? Because the Heat have learned the hard way that they are not going to win a knockdown dragout slugfest with the Hornets. The tighter low-scoring games are favoring Charlotte and the Heat must do something about it tonight. Give credit to the Charlotte defense but also it is a fact that Miami has missed plenty of open looks and easy buckets in the last 3 games. More of those will be falling tonight and, if the Heat are close late (even remotely close) there will be plenty of late fouling and jacking up three pointers as the Miami season is on the line tonight. Even with three straight unders in this series, the over is still 16-9 in Heat playoff games the last 3 seasons combined. Also, the over is 6-1 in Hornets games this season when they enter a game on a run of 3 or more consecutive unders. Charlotte got Nicolas Batum back in game five and he scored 24 points in game one of this series. Now that he's got a game under his belt, Batum may very well erupt again on offense for the Hornets in game six. For the Heat, a huge effort all the way around tonight but they won't stop Hornets team on their home floor that has averaged 102.6 points per game in this series. *10* OVER in Charlotte |
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04-28-16 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 197.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 197.5 in Boston vs Atlanta @ 8:05 ET - 4 of the 5 games in this series have stayed under the total but that is giving us some nice value here for multiple reasons. One key is that the posted total continues to drop in this series. Note that tonight's total opened up at a 197 and 3 of the 5 games in this series have totaled 199 points or more and the most recent game fell just short of this range with a total of 193 points scored. The point is that we're getting line value here just based on the downward line move from earlier in the series. Another key to the value here is simply that the pace has been good for overs throughout most of this series. The fact is that shots just weren't falling but we've all seen what happens when the shots start to fall as the Hawks poured in 110 points in Game 5 once they started knocking down shots from all over the floor. Atlanta has had an average of 90 field goal attempts per game in this series. Boston has averaged about 89 shots from the field per game. Yes, one of the 5 games did go to overtime but that lone game has not skewed the average much. The point of all this is that both teams are firing away on offense and in an elimination game there is no doubt that both teams will be pushing for all four quarters in this one. Boston scored well and shot the ball much better in their two home games in this series and are happy to be back home. Atlanta wants to close this series out now and is completely filled with confidence after getting the big win in Game 4 where the Hawks offense simply went "off" and rolled to a dominating win. The over is 9-5 this season when Boston is off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Also, the over is 11-4 the last three seasons in Celtics home games where the posted total is between 195 and 199.5 points. The Hawks have had just 11 unders the last 28 times they have been off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. In other words, look for the Celtics offense to get right back on track here but look for Atlanta to match them bucket for bucket in what should be a high-scoring back-and-forth affair. *10* OVER in Boston |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 197 | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 197 in LA Clippers vs Portland @ 10:05 ET - With Chris Paul now out for this series and Blake Griffin suddenly out for the post-season, the line move (of course!) has been toward Portland and the under. The thing that is getting ignored based on the line move on the total is that the Clippers have played a motion offense when Paul has been out this season and that motion offense actually has resulted in high-scoring games. The betting markets often look at just the impact of "lost points" when All Stars are out but what really should be given consideration is the impact on the pace of the game as well as how it can impact a team's defense. The Clippers defense is certainly not as strong with those two guys off of the floor. As for the offense, not only can the motion offense again be successful, I look for huge games from other players that are hungry to step up in the absence of these two stars for the Clippers. The fact this game is at home helps as the Clips will have the home fans on their side and I look for an up-tempo game with the Clippers pushing hard to continue the trend of the home team winning each game in this series. The result should be a rather easy over! In road games with a posted total between 195 and 199.5 points, the Trail Blazers are 17-6 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Each game in this playoff series has stayed under the total and that has helped lead to exceptional line value here as the tempo has actually "been there" for an over in prior games. The Blazers are averaging 87 field goal attempts per game while the Clips have averaged 86 field goal attempts in the last 3 games and they scored 115 points in the first game. *10* OVER 197 in LA Clippers |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 193 | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* UNDER 193 in Miami vs Charlotte @ 8:05 ET - This series is starting to turn into an "old-school, hard-nosed" Eastern Conference playoff series. The last two games have averaged just 175 points and I look for more of the same tonight. The Heat are back home and they'll want to control the pace on their home floor. Miami has attempted 79 shots or less from the field in Games 2 through 4 in this series. As for Game 1, the Heat held the Hornets to only 65 shots from the field. The point is, Miami will look to again keep the pace of the game down and this should be another "grind it out" affair. The under is 5-2 this season when Miami is off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The under is also a stellar 26-13 this season when the Heat are playing with revenge. They want their payback against the Hornets tonight after what happened down in Charlotte and the Heat know the best way to get it is to grind out a victory tonight. *8* UNDER 193 in Miami |
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04-26-16 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 191.5 | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 191.5 in Toronto vs Indiana @ 6:05 ET - Amazingly the first four games of this series have stayed under the total. With Toronto off of a bad road loss at Indiana and now back home looking to get back on track, the Raptors are absolutely going to push the pace tonight. Toronto is 22-7 to the over when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. The Raptors also are 10-3 to the over when they are off of game where they scored 85 points or less. That includes a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. Toronto is also 3-1 to the over when tied in a playoff series. The Pacers are 17-6 to the over in road games where the posted total is between 190 and 194.5 points. That includes 3-0 to the over this season. That means we're testing double perfect 3-0 angles by going with the over Tuesday and we'll gladly do just that as the Raptors shot just 36.5% on the road at Indiana in Game 4 and that most certainly will not be repeated here. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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04-25-16 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 205 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 205 in Oklahoma City vs Dallas @ 8:05 ET - After a surprising 85-84 win in Game 2 for Dallas at OKC, the Mavericks decided to change things up. They changed their defensive schemes some and also added some full court press to their repertoire. The result? The Mavs gave up an average of 125 points per game in the two home losses to the Thunder. Now Dallas would surely like to change things back...but it's too late. The Thunder have all the confidence, Kevin Durant is off of a rare poor game, Oklahoma City is back home ready to atone for a loss in their most recent home game, and the Thunder will control the pace in this game as they look to put a beating on the Mavs. Similar to my play yesterday on the OVER in Memphis when the Grizzlies were facing elimination against a much superior foe, the Mavs have little chance of slowing the Thunder down. At the same time, the Mavericks know the only way to stay in the game is to hit some big threes and employ a little run and gun of their own. They know they are NOT going to be able to stop the Thunder at home. Oklahoma City is too "ticked off" about the Game 2 loss for that to happen. Keep in mind, OKC has averaged 119 points per game in their three wins in this series and I see them winning tonight by a big margin...very close to the posted number on this game. That means a 120-105 type game. Right at the spread but over the total by 20 points. We'll take that any day any time. Look for a huge performance from the Thunder as they want to put the burial on the Mavs in what has become a "chippy" series. Look for the over to go to 8-4 in OKC first round playoff games. The over is 10-6 in Dallas first round playoff games and the Mavericks won't quit firing up shots until the final whistle in this one because they know their season ends with a loss tonight. *10* OVER in Oklahoma City |
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04-24-16 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 183 | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 183 in Memphis vs San Antonio @ 1:05 ET - Look for the Spurs to "push" the pace a little bit more today as they want to make sure they put the final nail in the coffin of the Grizzlies today. San Antonio knows they'll have plenty of time to rest after this game so I do expect a full "road rout" effort here from the Spurs. However, I am not fond of laying big points, particularly on the road, and that's why my play here is the over rather than the side. Memphis did makes some adjustments heading into Game 3 and the results included some better looks at the basket and the Grizzlies scored 87 points which is their highest point total so far in the series. I do expect Memphis to push the pace here as this is an "all out, leave it all on the floor" type of game. Even if down by double digits late you may see fouling and then hoisting of three pointers for Memphis to try and crawl back into the game. That's because it's a win or go home game for the Grizzlies and they certainly will give it their all, even with limited personnel, in what absolutely is likely to be the final game in front of their home fans for this season. I like the fact that Memphis shot better in Game 3 and also hit the boards hard. I also expect the pace to stay "up tempo" as the Grizzlies have now averaged 84 shots per game from the field in the past two games. The Spurs are hot from three point land and they won't hesitate to put a beating on the Grizzlies here given the opportunity as, like I said above, rest is what awaits them. Push the tempo, get a big road win, and move on. That is the mantra for the Spurs. They are 5-1 to the over as a road favorite of 12.5 points or more the past 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 5-0 to the over this season when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive unders. Game 3 did stay under the total compared to the closing line. I expect no questions about where this total ends compared to the opening line, closing line, and all points in between as this one should easily cruise past the numbers. *8* OVER in Memphis |
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