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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-14-16 | Reds +107 v. Brewers | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
The rebuilding Brewers are 8-12 this month going nowhere this season. The Reds aren't going anywhere either. But they have shown some life, sparked by Joey Votto's bat coming alive, winning 15 of their last 24 games. |
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08-13-16 | Orioles v. Giants -160 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Enough is enough. I don't see San Francisco losing for a sixth straight time with Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner hasn't slipped. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last seven starts. The Orioles have never faced him. |
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08-10-16 | Giants +126 v. Marlins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 126 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The Giants are a sound investment as underdogs here. The Marlins are weakening themselves in the bullpen by starting David Phelps, who has been a key setup reliever for them. |
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08-07-16 | Cubs v. A's +158 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
This isn't the mismatch it looks like on paper. |
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08-07-16 | Rangers -110 v. Astros | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The Astros are 2-7 in their last nine games and pitching rookie Joe Musgrove, who has been used in the bullpen. I don't see Musgrove pitching long in this game and the Astros have a vulnerable bullpen. |
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08-07-16 | Mets -126 v. Tigers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The price is low enough to get into play with a pitching mismatch of Jacob deGrom versus Anibal Sanchez. |
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08-06-16 | Marlins v. Rockies -123 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Look for the Rockies to bounce back after losing on Friday when they blew a ninth-inning lead. |
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08-06-16 | Indians -143 v. Yankees | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
I'll lay this price with the superior team that has a major edge, too, in starting pitching. |
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08-05-16 | Red Sox +113 v. Dodgers | Top | 9-0 | Win | 113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Not only does Boston have the better offense, but the Red Sox also have the superior starting pitcher going here. Yet they opened underdogs. |
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08-01-16 | Yankees v. Mets -105 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
This game opened priced much lower than it should be because CC Sabathia is a big-name starter while Logan Verrett is not.Â
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07-31-16 | Mariners +125 v. Cubs | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Just because the Cubs struck gold with another failed Oriole, Jake Arrieta, doesn't mean they can do it with Brian Matusz. As good as the Cubs are, and playing at home, I disagree that they should be favored in a matchup of Matusz against Felix Hernandez. |
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07-31-16 | Cardinals -115 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Stud versus underachiever. That's what we have in this matchup. Carlos Martinez doesn't get a lot of publicity, but he's a star and he's at his best on the road. |
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07-30-16 | Royals v. Rangers -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Question: Which team has the worst road record in the majors? Step to the front if you said the defending world champion Royals. They have dropped 34 of their 51 away games and have just about faded from playoff contention trailing the Indians by 10 games in the AL Central. |
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07-30-16 | Yankees v. Rays -123 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on here for southpaw Drew Smyly, a big strikeout pitcher who had an encouraging outing in his last start. |
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07-29-16 | Nationals v. Giants +146 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
I understand it's tough to get behind the Giants right now. They are 2-10 since the All-Star break. |
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07-29-16 | White Sox -120 v. Twins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The White Sox are in must-win mode against this bottom-feeder. Twins players have to be distracted by the upcoming trade deadline especially after infielder Eduardo Nunez, their lone All-Star, was dealt to San Francisco following Thursday's win against Baltimore. |
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07-28-16 | Orioles +102 v. Twins | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Baltimore is 58-42. Minnesota is 37-63, the worst record in the American League. That's a sampling of 100 games. The verdict is in and the Orioles are much superior to the Twins. |
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07-26-16 | Rays +112 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
After making a key mechanical adjustment, the buy sign is on for Chris Archer. He pitched at Coors Field this past Wednesday and held the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings. Up to that point, Archer had been very disappointing. Yet he still leads the American League in strikeouts with 147 in 123 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Archer a first-look edge. |
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07-25-16 | Yankees v. Astros -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
The Yankees not only lose their closer Aroldis Chapman, but also are mentally distracted following that trade today in which the star reliever was dealt to the Cubs. |
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07-25-16 | Phillies +124 v. Marlins | Top | 4-0 | Win | 124 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
Take away Jose Fernandez and the Marlins' pitching staff is very vulnerable. That's especially so when an injury hits like it has to Wei-Yin Chen. He's out with an elbow injury. The reason the Marlins' back-end of their rotation is so bad is because they have no adequate replacements. |
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07-24-16 | Rangers v. Royals -117 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a key matchup for the defending world champions. The Royals have been dominant at home going 31-15. They have only lost four times in 22 games when favored at Kauffman Stadium. |
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07-23-16 | Braves +177 v. Rockies | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
This is way too big of a price for the Rockies to lay pitching lefty Tyler Anderson and having a shaky and fatigued bullpen. The Rockies believe Anderson has promise. The Braves believe the same thing about Matt Wisler, who gets the start here. Wisler more than held his own when he pitched at Coors Field last year giving up two runs in six innings. |
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07-23-16 | Mariners +136 v. Blue Jays | 14-5 | Win | 136 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
The price is right to back the underdog Mariners. So is the pitching matchup. |
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07-22-16 | Tigers -145 v. White Sox | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Detroit is 11-1 the past 12 times Michael Fulmer has taken the mound. This record isn't built on luck. Fulmer has been brilliant going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA on the season, including posting a 7-1 mark in his last 10 outings with a 0.83 ERA.Â
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07-21-16 | Marlins v. Phillies -107 | 9-3 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
The Marlins have been a nice success story so far this season. But their biggest weakness - the backend of their rotation - is likely to get exposed in this matchup. |
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07-20-16 | Rays v. Rockies +100 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Chris Archer is on his way to a 20-lose season and has shown no signs of reverting back to last season's All-Star form. His ERA hasn't been under 4.00 since his second start and he's given up 20 homers after surrendering 19 last year. Archer is 0-6 in his last seven starts. |
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07-19-16 | Giants v. Red Sox -156 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I don't see the Giants getting it done with Jake Peavy pitching in band box Fenway Park. San Francisco hasn't played at Fenway since 2007. Peavy knows Fenway, though, from his days in the American League. He has a 4.47 ERA in 14 starts at Fenway. |
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07-18-16 | Indians v. Royals +131 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 131 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
This is a huge series for the Royals if they want to make a run in the AL Central. Kansas City has yet to lose to the Indians at home in three meetings this season. |
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07-16-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -155 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
There's nothing wrong with St. Louis' offense  - fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in homers - and now the Cardinals have a strong pitching matchup edge with a rejuvenated Adam Wainwright drawing Tom Koehler. The buy sign is on with Wainwright as he's returned to ace status holding the Brewers and Pirates to a combined one run in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Wainwright tied his season high in strikeouts against the Pirates with nine. Wainwright has a good post-All-Star history (50-28 with a 3.05 ERA) and is 4-2 with a 2.33 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in eight starts.  Koehler historically is worse on the road and that's held up this season with a 4.72 away ERA compared to 4.22 ERA at Marlins Park. Koehler has a career WHIP at 1.56 and a 7.56 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis in three starts. Koehler is vulnerable to the Cardinals' power bats, too. He didn't allow a homer in his last start, but surrendered four during his previous three outings. The Marlins are 0-7 the past seven times Koehler has started versus an above .500 opponent. All of this helps make this my Game of the Week. |
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07-16-16 | Royals -119 v. Tigers | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
Question: Who is the Royals' best starter? I'd go with Danny Duffy. He's made 11 starts since becoming a part of the Royals' starting rotation and gone 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's starts this season. The key for Duffy is better control. He has a 23-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. |
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07-10-16 | Nationals +120 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This would be a much better matchup for the Mets if Steven Matz were healthy, Yoenis Cespedes was able to play and there wasn't such gloom around the team with the recent news about Matt Harvey being out for the season and Noah Syndergaard possibly dealing with a serious injury. |
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07-08-16 | Rays +105 v. Red Sox | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay. |
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07-07-16 | Padres +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 128 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
I'm always attracted getting a plus price with the superior starting pitcher. That's the case here with Drew Pomeranz facing lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. |
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07-06-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I don't see the Cardinals getting swept at home especially with Pittsburgh throwing Jeff Locke, who has a 7.16 road ERA in nine away starts. Locke also has a 4.04 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals in nine starts. Pittsburgh is 2-8 the past 10 times Locke has pitched on the road versus an above .500 foe.Â
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07-06-16 | Mariners v. Astros -151 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride the hot Astros, winners of 28 of their last 39 games. Houston starter Mike Fiers is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts. The righty is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA during his past three home starts. |
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07-04-16 | Marlins v. Mets -150 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The Mets have a rested bullpen, something the Marlins don't have, and draw Miami traveling to play in a day game after playing in the late Sunday game at night. |
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07-04-16 | Rockies +135 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco all ailing. San Francisco also is minus starting third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joe Panik. The Giants carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and over-the-hill Jake Peavy is the starting pitcher. |
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07-04-16 | Yankees v. White Sox +118 | 2-8 | Win | 118 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
James Shields is enduring a terrible season. But he did pitch well in his last start holding the Twins to one run in 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts and one walk at home this past Wednesday. |
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07-03-16 | Yankees -118 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
I'm willing to lay a short road road price on promising Chad Green against Andrew Cashner, a proven underachiever who has been battling injuries much of the season. |
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07-01-16 | Orioles +110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
I believe this could be the top value play of the season so far getting the Orioles as an opening underdog against Seattle journeyman southpaw Wade LeBlanc. |
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06-30-16 | Giants -140 v. A's | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The line has come down enough to where there is value backing Madison Bumgarner. He's among the best pitchers in baseball. Dillon Overton should be a much higher priced 'dog. The Giants are 17-5 the past 22 times Bumgarner has faced a sub .500 foe on the road. |
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06-30-16 | Indians -110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
I'm going to continue to ride the Indians and a back-in-top-form Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by 51 runs in winning its last 12 games. Carrasco has regained his elite status with three straight quality performances, posting a 1.61 ERA during this span. |
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06-30-16 | Rangers v. Yankees -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
I can see the Yankees owning a pitching edge in every inning. A.J. Griffin is making just his second start since coming off the DL. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game for precautionary reasons and the Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Closer Sam Dyson also carries a fatigue rating. |
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06-29-16 | Dodgers v. Brewers +107 | 0-7 | Win | 107 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
The underdog Brewers should have beaten the Dodgers last night and are in a better spot to pull the upset today facing rookie Brock Stewart in his big league debut. |
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06-28-16 | Dodgers v. Brewers +129 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
There are several key under-the-radar spots here that clearly point to the home underdog Brewers. |
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06-28-16 | Indians -177 v. Braves | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
Nothing fancy here. I just want the red-hot Indians - winners of 10 in a row - with Corey Kluber on the mound against the Braves. |
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06-27-16 | Dodgers v. Pirates -113 | 5-4 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
After seeing the lineups - and who the Dodgers are resting - I'm involved with Pittsburgh. Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager and Joc Pederson are all not in LA's starting lineup. The Pirates also have defeated the Dodgers the past eight times at home. |
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06-26-16 | Astros v. Royals +116 | 1-6 | Win | 116 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on the Astros pulling off a road sweep of the Royals. Ian Kennedy is tough at home with a 2.30 ERA. He also is 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in three career starts versus Houston. |
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06-26-16 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Chris Sale. I want him going for me in this matchup and the price is acceptable enough. Sale is an elite pitcher and he's having one of his finest seasons. The White Sox are 12-3 this season with Sale on the mound. Chicago has won seven of the last eight times Sale has pitched at home. |
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