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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-29-24 | Knicks v. Hornets +9 | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season. |
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01-28-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games. |
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01-27-24 | 76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago. |
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01-27-24 | Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31. |
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01-27-24 | Princeton -140 v. Cornell | 68-83 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
These are the two best teams in the Ivy League. I like Princeton to get the victory here. The Tigers are 15-1, including 8-1 on the road. Princeton has covered 64 percent of its lined games, while Cornell has a losing ATS mark. Princeton has the better defense limiting foes to 63.2 points a game, ranks third in the nation in free throw percentage and commits few turnovers. Cornell, by contrast, gives up 75.8 points a game.Â
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01-26-24 | Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation. |
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01-26-24 | Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games. |
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01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's +4.5 v. Quinnipiac | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 122-134 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs. |
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01-25-24 | SMU v. North Texas +1.5 | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game. |
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01-24-24 | Hawks v. Warriors -7 | Top | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since. |
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01-24-24 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 232.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points. |
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01-24-24 | George Washington v. Richmond UNDER 147.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country. |
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01-23-24 | San Diego +3.5 v. Portland | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco. |
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01-23-24 | Houston v. BYU +2.5 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU. |
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01-23-24 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 124-153 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over. |
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01-22-24 | Hawks v. Kings -8 | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS. |
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01-22-24 | Weber State v. Montana UNDER 144.5 | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total. |
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01-22-24 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage. |
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01-21-24 | Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | 110-134 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers. |
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01-21-24 | Oregon v. Utah -5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene. |
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01-20-24 | Cavs -135 v. Hawks | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared. |
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01-20-24 | Purdue v. Iowa +7 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game.  The Hawks have held their last two opponents, the Magic to 104 points, and Spurs to 99 points. Atlanta, though, is averaging only 105.5 points in its last four games. |
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01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 223 | 124-109 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. |
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01-19-24 | Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | Top | 48-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's. |
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01-18-24 | Troy State v. South Alabama | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas. |
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01-18-24 | Tenn-Martin v. Morehead State UNDER 150.5 | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference. |
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01-17-24 | Heat v. Raptors +1.5 | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors. |
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01-17-24 | Rhode Island +8.5 v. St Bonaventure | 64-99 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rhode Island had a rough December. But sparked by David Green, the Rams are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games. |
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01-17-24 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them. |
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01-16-24 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +3.5 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas is 7-2 at home, including a victory against Duke, and draws Texas A&M in a letdown spot.
The Aggies are off their finest win of the season. They beat Kentucky, 97-92 in overtime, at home this past Saturday. It was the first time the Aggies defeated a ranked team this season and it was their first victory against the Wildcats since 2018. The Razorbacks should be fired-up after consecutive road defeats to Florida and Georgia. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman ripped his team following the latest loss. |
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01-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup. |
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01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 228.5 | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The focus will be on superstars Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. But I am thinking defense here in this high-profile matchup between the defending champion Nuggets and 76ers, who are anxious to make a statement with a win.  |
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01-15-24 | Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 248.5 | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
Indiana has gone Under the total in its last three games. The Pacers haven't had emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton during those three games. So it's not a coincidence those games have all gone Under. I find it directly related. Haliburton suffered a groin injury four games ago. Haliburton, who leads the NBA in assists and also is the Pacers' leading scorer, isn't expected back until later this month. |
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01-15-24 | Dartmouth +18 v. Princeton | 58-76 | Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Dartmouth is below the radar and justifiably so with three straight losses and non-covers. But the Big Green has had injuries. Now they finally are healthy. |
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01-14-24 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
UCLA covered against Marquette and Gonzaga in narrow losses to those schools earlier this season. Few, though, are rushing to the window to bet the Bruins these days. UCLA is 1-8 in its last nine games and off an embarrassing, 90-44, road loss to Utah this past Thursday. |
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01-13-24 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are fully healthy. The Mavericks are not. Luka Doncic is out with an ankle injury. Dante Exum, the Mavericks' fifth-leading scorer, is out, too. Rotation player Dereck Lively II is questionable. |
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01-13-24 | CS-Fullerton v. CS-Northridge -4 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
Cal Northridge is a better team than Cal State-Fullerton and the timing sets up well for the Matadors.
The Matadors just played on Thursday and lost, 95-75, to UC Davis on the road. That was just the second time in 14 games that Northridge failed to cover the spread. The Matadors are 12-4 and 12-2 ATS in their lined games. One of those victories was a 76-72 victory against UCLA on the road as a 17-point underdog. It wasn't a fluke win either as the Matadors were in control for much of the game. Fullerton is 1-3 in its last four games. The Titans haven't played in a week. So they figure to be rusty while Northridge is anxious to atone for its poor showing this past Thursday. Another factor Northridge has going is its coach, Andy Newman, is a former coach at Fullerton. He's been pointing to this game. |
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01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
San Diego State isn't the same on the road. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in away and neutral site games this season. |
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01-12-24 | Magic v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an in-state rivalry matchup between two top 10 defenses. Both teams have multiple injuries to key players, too.  The Heat aren't likely to have Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin are questionable. Orlando will be minus Franz Wagner, its second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, and also could be without Wendell Carter Jr., Joe Ingles and Gary Harris.  Miami is going to be stressing defense after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot 59.3 percent from the floor in a 128-120 loss to the Thunder two days ago.  The Heat defeated the Magic, 115-106, at Orlando in their first meeting this season. The Heat were hot in that game shooting 48 percent from the floor and sinking 15 of 29 3-point shots for 52 percent. I highly doubt the Heat will be that hot again.Â
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01-12-24 | Dayton +1.5 v. Duquesne | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Dayton has won nine in a row. The Flyers shouldn't be an underdog to Duquesne. |
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01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. |
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01-11-24 | Blazers +13.5 v. Thunder | Top | 77-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on. |
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01-11-24 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 102-135 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Only once all season have the Celtics been an underdog. But there are good reasons why Boston is getting so many points in this matchup. |
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01-11-24 | Stony Brook v. Towson -4.5 | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I find this line short. Towson is 6-0 at home. Stony Brook hosted Towson last year and lost, 67-55. Towson is superior to the Seawolves again this season. |
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01-10-24 | The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury. The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday. Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years. Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points. Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman. |
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01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers -5 | Top | 131-132 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
Next to winning the NBA in-season tournament, the Lakers won perhaps their most important game of the season this past Sunday edging the Clippers, 106-103. The Clippers had won five in a row entering that matchup while the Lakers had dropped four straight.
The Lakers were 3-10 since capturing the in-season tournament before defeating the Clippers. There was growing friction inside the Lakers between some players and coach Darvin Ham. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis had huge performances and D'Angelo Russell returned after missing three games because of a bruised tailbone to lead the Lakers past the Clippers and take the focus off Ham. I don't see the Lakers just giving back that game by losing at home to the Raptors here. Toronto is a bit fat and happy following a 133-118 road win against the Warriors this past Sunday. That gave the Raptors a 2-1 record on their current six-game road trip. This marks the Raptors' fourth road game in seven days and seventh overall game in 12 days. The Raptors haven't been playing good defense, surrendering an average of 122.3 points a game during their past six games. |
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01-09-24 | Rhode Island v. Davidson -5 | 79-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from Davidson at home after the Wildcats lost its Atlantic-10 opener six days ago to Dayton, 72-59. That was the Wildcats' first home defeat in seven games and also halted a seven-game win streak. Davidson had a bad shooting night, while Dayton was hot making 50 percent of its shots from the floor. |
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01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State +2.5 | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Getting even a basket with Iowa State is huge in this matchup of defensive giants. |
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01-06-24 | Cincinnati v. BYU -8.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams. |
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01-06-24 | Knicks v. Wizards +9 | 121-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Knicks are 3-0 since acquiring three players from the Raptors, including OG Anunoby. They are off their most lopsided win of the season, a 128-92 rout of the 76ers last night. |
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01-05-24 | Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season. |
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01-05-24 | Connecticut -4.5 v. Butler | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Butler has never beaten Connecticut in seven tries. Butler has never kept the final score below double-digits either in any of its losses to Connecticut. Maybe the Bulldogs can keep this game in single digits, but I don't see them pulling the upset. |
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01-04-24 | Texas-Arlington +5 v. Tarleton St | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Texas Arlington is underpriced here. The Mavericks have played a tougher schedule than Tarleton State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games. This includes the Mavericks covering against Texas, Texas Tech and Grand Canyon, who they led in the second half against. |
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01-04-24 | Bucks v. Spurs UNDER 250 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
The Bucks and Pacers just scored a combined 272 points in Indiana's, 142-130, Wednesday home victory. |
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01-03-24 | Pistons +9 v. Jazz | Top | 148-154 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Utah is fat and happy after getting satisfying revenge on Dallas this past Monday. The Jazz whipped the Mavericks, 127-90, after having lost to the Mavericks by 50 points in their previous matchup on Dec. 6.  The Pistons have their own short revenge here. The Jazz defeated the Pistons, 119-111, as 2 1/2-point road favorites on Dec. 21.  Since then the Pistons halted an NBA record-tying 28-game losing streak by edging the Raptors. Following that victory, the Pistons had their own letdown losing to the Rockets, 136-113, on the road two days ago.  The Pistons should be ready again now. Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks shouldn't lack motivation having formerly played for the Jazz.  This is just the second time since Dec. 2 that Utah is favored. It's also the most points Utah is laying all season.Â
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01-03-24 | Indiana v. Nebraska -5 | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
This is Fred Hoiberg's best Nebraska team since taking over the Cornhuskers in 2019. The Cornhuskers are 11-2, including 9-1 at home. I see them getting the job done at home against Indiana, a game Hoiberg has been pointing to. Indiana has played three straight easy home games beating Morehead State, North Alabama and Kennesaw State. This is only the Hooisers' second true road game.Â
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01-03-24 | St. Thomas -4.5 v. Idaho | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
I have no problem fading Idaho, who has played a very weak schedule. The Vandals are a below average scoring team and rank 326nd in 3-point defense. St. Thomas is 2-0 in the Summit League with impressive wins and covers against North Dakota and Kansas City. The Tommies have covered five of their last six lined games, including the past four. They are giving up just 54.5 points in their last four games.Â
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01-02-24 | Hornets +16 v. Kings | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
This is the biggest margin the Kings have been favored all season. It's justified considering the opponent is Charlotte. But the spot isn't good for the Kings. So I'll accept this many points with the Hornets. |
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01-02-24 | Purdue v. Maryland +6.5 | 67-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season. |
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01-01-24 | Cavs +2.5 v. Raptors | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Wrong favorite here. The 18-14 Cavaliers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and in much better form than the 12-20 Raptors. |
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12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -3.5 | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
It's obvious the Knicks are missing underrated defensive center Mitchell Robinson. New York has surrendered an average of 124.5 points in its last four games. Now the Knicks have to face the Pacers on the road. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring at 126.1 points. |
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12-30-23 | Portland State -3.5 v. Idaho | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category. |
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12-29-23 | Arizona v. California +14 | 100-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener. |
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12-29-23 | Raptors +8 v. Celtics | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort. |
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12-28-23 | Prairie View A&M v. Texas-San Antonio -2.5 | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games. |
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12-28-23 | Pistons +17 v. Celtics | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I understand the Pistons are all-time bad with 27 straight losses. But they are in a great situational spot and the point spread is through the roof.
The Celtics concluded a four-game West Coast trip that began nine days ago and finished on Christmas day with a highly-satisfying national TV win against the Lakers, Boston's third consecutive victory. The Celtics returned home two days ago to celebrate the holidays. They are fat and happy. Now they have to get reinvigorated to play the worst team in the league while also knowing they host the Raptors on Friday. That's a more challenging game. So I'm not expecting anywhere near an "A" game from the Celtics, who could be using their bench players more than usual in this matchup. The Pistons have been semi-competitive in their last four games playing the Nets twice, Jazz and Hawks. Their average margin of defeat in these games is 7.7 points. |
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12-26-23 | Magic -7.5 v. Wizards | 127-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards. |
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12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
The big news here is Joel Embiid is out with a sprained ankle. Embiid is a strong rebounder and rim protector, but his absence is going to be felt more on Philadelphia's offense. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35 points a game. He also averages six assists. |
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12-23-23 | Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 244.5 | 130-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
There are a number of odd circumstances that work against this total going Over. |
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12-22-23 | Hawks v. Heat -118 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
OK, no Jimmy Butler for the Heat. I'll accept that in order to get the Heat at a near pick price against the Hawks. |
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12-22-23 | Siena v. Brown -12 | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home. |
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12-20-23 | Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games. |
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12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home. |
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12-20-23 | Arkansas State v. Belmont -4 | 70-74 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The last time Arkansas State played on the road was a week ago. The Red Wolves upset Louisville. Impressive yes, but that was only their first road win in six tries. I don't see Arkansas State duplicating that success against Belmont, which is 4-0 at home.
Arkansas State is 4-7. Belmont is 8-4. The Red Hawks are turnover-prone, while the Bruins are extremely efficient in their shooting. They rank 22nd in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage. |
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12-18-23 | Nets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS. |
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12-17-23 | Rockets v. Bucks UNDER 230.5 | 119-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
The Bucks have scored 146 and 140 points, respectively, in their last two games. Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the league. |
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12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix. |
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12-15-23 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +15 | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent. |
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12-15-23 | Pistons +16 v. 76ers | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances. |
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12-14-23 | Wolves +2 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Mavericks for nipping the Lakers, 127-125, at home on Tuesday. That was Dallas' fourth consecutive victory. But before getting on the Mavericks' bandwagon take a look at who their other three victories came against during this win streak - Utah, Portland and Memphis. Those three teams are a combined 20-49.
Minnesota is tied with Boston for the best record in the NBA at 17-5. The Timberwolves just had their six-game win streak snapped by the Pelicans, 121-107, at New Orleans three days ago. The Timberwolves are the better team and I want them off a loss with extra preparation time. It's a bonus if the Timberwolves get back Anthony Edwards, who is questionable with a hip pointer. Minnesota does have back Jaden McDaniels, an underrated rotation player. The Mavericks remain without Kyrie Irving. |
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12-13-23 | Nets v. Suns -125 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
I hold tremendous respect for the Nets. They have the best point spread record in the NBA at 16-5-1. So I don't like to fade them. But it's not asking too much of the Suns to simply win this game even if Kevin Durant isn't ready to play after missing the last two games because of an ankle sprain. That's why I have them on the money line instead of laying a short number. |
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12-13-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -5.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively. |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 258.5 | 126-140 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Behold this game has reached the highest total of the season. It's justified because these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA. |
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12-13-23 | Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 60-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23. |
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12-12-23 | Cavs +11 v. Celtics | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss. |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 233 | 125-127 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
The Mavericks won't have Kyrie Irving and will want to slow pace having played last night. Dallas could be minus Tim Hardaway, too. He missed the Grizzlies' game due to back spasms. The Lakers are in a letdown spot after winning the NBA's in-season tournament. |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Mavericks beat the Lakers, 104-101, in Los Angeles on Nov. 22. The circumstances are ripe for the Mavericks to do it again.
This is the Lakers' first game since capturing the NBA's first in-season tournament. They accomplished that by defeating the Pacers this past Saturday night in Las Vegas. The Lakers haven't done nearly as well in non-tournament games and this is a letdown spot for them. LA is 5-7 in non-tournament games. Dallas won and covered its third straight game beating the Grizzlies, 120-113, on the road last night. The Mavericks were idle the previous two days, however. So there should not be a fatigue factor. |
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12-11-23 | Utah Tech v. CS-Northridge -130 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
It's a short college basketball board today, but I'm getting involved in a game involving small conference West Coast teams. I like Cal State Northridge to win at home against Utah Tech. |
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12-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons +7 | 131-123 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers. |
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12-11-23 | Heat -3.5 v. Hornets | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105. |
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12-10-23 | Boston University v. Wagner -3.5 | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points. |
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12-09-23 | Illinois v. Tennessee -6.5 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue. |
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12-09-23 | Tulane v. Mississippi State UNDER 152 | 76-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
An early start matchup at a neutral site doesn't bode well for as high as scoring game as the oddsmaker projects here. Tulane has shot better than 50 percent from the field in six of its seven games this season. However, the Green Wave have faced an easy schedule. Mississippi State is the toughest defense they have encountered so far. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season. |
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12-07-23 | Eastern Kentucky +9.5 v. NC-Greensboro | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky beat UNC Greensboro, 68-64, at home last season. The Colonels are off to a slow start this season at 3-3 while Greensboro is 6-1. But I'm going to buy low on Eastern Kentucky in the belief this line is inflated too much. Eastern Kentucky isn't nearly double-digits worse than the Spartans, whose defense can be dented.Â
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 255 | Top | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
This is the highest total of the NBA season. I'm not buying it. I get that the Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league at 128.4 points and have gone above 120 points in each of their five tournament games. The Bucks are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 122.3 points and have gone Over in their past four games. |
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12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk. |
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12-05-23 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8. |
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