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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-01-17 | Hawks +8 v. 76ers | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers have not been favored by this many points since March 30, 2013 (a span of 344 games), so it's virgin territory for the Sixers under coach Brett Brown. Philly is a poor 178-228 ATS when favored at home vs. foes not off SU/ATS wins. Take Atlanta. |
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10-31-17 | Pistons v. Lakers +4 | Top | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers + the points over the Detroit Pistons. We're two weeks into the NBA season, and the league's two best records belong to the Memphis Grizzlies (5-2) and Detroit Pistons (5-2). Detroit also owns the best pointspread mark, as it is 6-1 ATS, including back-to-back upset wins on the weekend over the Clippers and Warriors. And Detroit was installed as an underdog of +8.5 and +14.5 in those two games! Tonight, the Pistons will finish their West Coast road trip with a game against Lonzo Ball's Lakers at Staples Center. And this game is a fantastic spot to fade the Pistons, especially given that the Lakers will enter the contest off blowout losses to the Raptors and Jazz. Since 1990, NBA teams, like Detroit, off back to back upset wins as an underdog of +8 or more points, are a poor 22-41-1 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Take the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-17 | Kings +5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Indiana Pacers. Sacramento opened the season with two straight ATS wins, but is 0-4 SU/ATS over its last four games. But I love them to get the $$$ vs. Indiana, as Sacramento falls into a 200-131 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road teams off SU/ATS losses. In their last game, the Pacers upset the San Antonio Spurs, as 6.5-point underdogs, to level their record at 3-3 on the year. Unfortunately, this season, .500 (or better) NBA teams have gone just 3-19-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-11-1 ATS vs. opponents with a losing record. Take the points with the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | Pistons +7 v. Clippers | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. Blake Griffin nailed a 3-pointer as time expired to upset the Trail Blazers, 104-103, in Rip City on Thursday. But off that huge win, I look for a letdown tonight, at home, vs. Stan Van Gundy's Pistons. And even though Detroit isn't undefeated like the Clippers, it has played even better than its 3-2 record would indicate, as it's 4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Clippers are an atrocious 26-48 ATS off four straight covers, and also fall into a negative 31-65 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on a win streak. Finally, .500 (or better) teams off an upset win are a poor 1-16 ATS this season. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Thunder were upset, at home, 115-113, earlier this week by the T-Wolves. But I look for Billy Donovan's men to turn the tables on Minnesota tonight, as OKC falls into a 64.4% ATS revenge system of mine. Moreover, OKC is an awesome 65-34-1 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat. And the T-Wolves are a poor 24-40 ATS at home when playing a revenge-minded foe whom the T-Wolves upset in the previous meeting. Take Oklahoma City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. David Fizdale's crew is 3-0 this season, including upset wins over Golden State and Houston in their last two games. And Memphis was an underdog of 8+ points in each of those two games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Grizzlies tonight, especially given that Dallas has lost its last two games by double-digits. But NBA teams off back to back upset wins as 8-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 35.4% since 1990, including 1-10 ATS since January 6, 2014. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-17 | Bulls +14.5 v. Cavs | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are just 1-2 ATS this season, and come into this game off an upset loss -- at home, no less -- at the hands of the Orlando Magic. Cleveland was favored by 11.5 points in that ballgame, so its ATS loss lowered its regular season record as a favorite by more than 10 points to 15-24 ATS its last 39. And, yes, it's true that many teams often bounce back from upset losses, or blowout losses. But this current edition of the Cavs isn't one of those teams. Indeed, they're 0-9 ATS their last nine off an upset home loss! And they're also just 15-34-1 ATS off a loss by more than 7 points (including 1-10 ATS their last 11). Finally, Chicago falls into one of my favorite NBA systems, which plays on certain teams off losses, which is 68-19 ATS since 1990. Take the Bulls + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-17 | 76ers +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Detroit. The Pistons have the best pointspread record (along with the Utah Jazz) in the league, as they're 3-0 ATS. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out, 128-94, on Saturday in Toronto. But this is a great spot to go against Detroit, as NBA teams that are undefeated ATS (with a 3-0 or better ATS record) are a soft 30-63 ATS when not getting more than three points, including 3-17 ATS against an opponent off a double-digit loss. And Philly is 22-8 ATS off a defeat on the road. Take the points with the 76ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks -3 | Top | 110-113 | Push | 0 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers. This is tough situational spot for the Blazers, who have been saddled with three straight road games to start the season. And they have to play tonight's game without rest, as they were in Indiana yesterday to play the Pacers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee will be at home for the 2nd straight night, as it was upset by Cleveland, 116-97, on Friday. We'll fade Portland, as the Blazers fall into negative 20-62 and 18-47 ATS systems of mine that go against certain unrested teams off wins. Additionally, Milwaukee's 10-2 ATS its last 12 vs. Portland. And the Bucks are also 64.7% ATS over the past 28 years off an upset loss, if they're matched up against unrested winning teams off back to back wins. Take Milwaukee. NBA HIGH ROLLER! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns stunk up the joint on opening night, as they lost by 48 points to the Portland Trail Blazers. Not surprisingly, it was the worst loss in the Suns' 50-year franchise history, and also the worst opening night loss by any team in the 72-year history of the NBA. Of course, one of the things I love to do is play on teams off blowout losses, and especially when our team is favored by 7 points or less (or PK). Such teams have cashed 76.9% since 1990. Even better: the Suns are 21-10 ATS the last 31 meetings between these two clubs, including 13-4 ATS at home. Take the Suns. NBA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Houston. This situation is similar to one from last season. The San Antonio Spurs upset Golden State on Opening Night, as an 8.5-point underdog, and then traveled to play Sacramento in Game 2. The Spurs were favored by 9 points vs. the Kings and won the game (but failed to cover). Sacramento (by virtue of its proximity to Golden State) often played teams immediately after they played the Warriors, and the Kings were 6-2 ATS in those games last season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when their foe was unrested. That, of course, is the situation tonight, as Houston upset the Warriors in Oakland, 122-121, as a 9.5-point underdog last night. And what clinches this play tonight is the fact that single-digit favorites are 0-13 ATS off an upset win in their opener, if they scored 105+ points in that Game 1 victory. Take Sacramento. NBA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 43 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Last year, the Cavs ousted Boston from the Playoffs. But we'll play on the Celts to avenge that defeat, as they fall into a 60% ATS NBA Playoff revenge angle of mine. Even better: our particular Playoff revenge angle zooms to 16-1-1 ATS if the game is Early in the season, and is competitively priced with a pointspread of 5 points or less! Boston's 5-1-1 ATS the last seven meetings in Cleveland. Take the points. NBA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -9 | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 66 h 10 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Warriors. Analysis to follow. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. The Cavs put up a valiant effort in Game 3, but fell apart in the game's late stages to fall by five points, 118-113. That puts LeBron James & Co. in a "do-or-die" situation tonight. It's true that many teams "roll over" when they're down 3-games-to-none (which is why this pointspread is significantly higher than Game 3's line), but I believe the Cavs will fight just as hard in this game as they did on Wednesday (which is all one can ask for in an elimination game). Also, consider that .750 (or better) teams are an awful 0-16 ATS since 1995 as favorites of -8 or less points vs. .530 (or better) teams when our favored team is up 3-0 or 3-1 in a Playoff series (including 0-5 ATS in an NBA Finals). Take the Cavaliers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. It's true that I've been predicting for the past 11 months, in interviews, articles, and via twitter, that Golden State would go 16-0 in these Playoffs. But the pointspread for this instant game confers value on the side of the underdog. Indeed, just six days ago, the advance pointspread for this Game 3 was Cleveland -2 points. However, following Golden State's wins in Games 1 + 2, that pointspread has shifted 5.5 or 6 points. In my estimation, that shift has been too great. And for those who might be concerned that the line is still too short, given Golden State's current 15-game win streak (including 14 Playoff games), then consider that NBA teams that have won 11+ games in a row are a poor 43-67 ATS when not favored by 4.5+ points. Take Cleveland. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 4 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. We played on the Warriors in Game 1 as our NBA Game of the Month, and were rewarded with a 113-91 victory. The Warriors were favored by 7 points in Game 1, but the line has ticked up much higher for Game 2. Admittedly, there are reasons for that (e.g., Golden State was just 21-for-49 on uncontested shots, so it can play better on offense). Of course, Cleveland can execute better as well, and I believe it will. Indeed, road teams off a loss by 22+ points in the NBA Finals are a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1991. That bodes well for a more competitive game on Sunday. As does the fact that LeBron James' teams are 5-1 ATS in the Playoffs off Blowout losses by 22+ points, and 21-7 ATS in the Playoffs off a game where they failed to cover by more than 11 points. Finally, at the quarterfinal round forward, underdogs of more than 7 points off a loss to start a Playoff series are a stellar 63.4% since 1991. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 68 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:00 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Cleveland. I've been on record (both in articles and in interviews) for the last 11 months saying that Golden State was going to go 16-0 in this season's playoffs. For the entire season, people told me I was nuts. Admittedly, it was a longshot (an initial 1000 dollar bet on the Warriors to sweep each of their four Playoff series would profit $179,000 if it does indeed happen). Even now, Golden State rates just an 11.1% chance to sweep Cleveland (though I would place the percent chance much higher). But we're now just four games away from the Warriors pulling off the improbable. This first game should set the tone of the series. It's true that Cleveland has rolled through the Eastern Conference, and won its last two games by 13 and 33 points. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, road teams are a dreadful 0-9 ATS off a win by 9+ points to clinch their Conference Finals. It also must be noted that Cleveland was the beneficiary of a very week Eastern Conference this season. So much so that coach Tyronn Lue rested his best players late in the season since he could not have cared less about securing home court advantage through the Eastern Conference. He knew it would not make a whit of difference. But where it has made a difference is in the NBA Finals. And Eastern Conference teams are an awful 0-9 SU/ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, if they started the series on the road! Golden State blew out Cleveland by 35 points here in Oakland in the previous meeting this season. More of the same on Thursday. Lay the points. NBA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 48 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors to go 'over' the total, as it falls into a Totals system of mine that's cashed 82% over the past 26 years. The Warriors come into this NBA Finals off back to back series sweeps over Utah and San Antonio. And what's especially noteworthy is that the Spurs and Jazz (along with the Warriors) constituted the three best defensive teams in the NBA (Spurs #1, Warriors #2, Jazz #3). Utah and San Antonio also were among the four slowest-paced teams (Utah #1, San Antonio #4). Yet Golden State averaged 117.75 ppg against those two teams. Admittedly, the Spurs and Jazz were without some of their players. But the fact remains that they were unable to control the pace or contain Golden State. Likewise, Cleveland will be unable to do either. The Cavs ranked 21st in defensive rating this season, a fact obscured by their 12-1 run through the pathetic Eastern Conference (none of Boston, Toronto and Indiana were in the NBA's Top 10 in defense this season). And they ranked among the top half of the fastest-paced teams (the Cavs are 52-31 'over' the total their last 83). I look for a very fast-paced game, and for it to go 'over' the total. NBA Finals Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in game 4 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have taken a commanding 3-0 lead in this series, and will go for the series-clincher tonight. The last two games were both double-digit wins (136-100; 120-108), so I expect the Spurs to come out with maximum effort tonight. I look for a relatively low-scoring game as teams (like Golden State) which scored 120+ points in their two previous playoff games have gone 'under' 70 percent since 1992. Also, games involving teams facing elimination tend to go 'under' the total, as well. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +12 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on San Antonio. The Spurs are down 3-0 in the series, and have failed to cover the spread in the last two games. But home dogs (or PK) that are down 3-0 in a 7 game series, from the quarterfinal round forward, have covered 90% since 1991 if they also failed to cover the spread in Games 2 + 3. Take the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +6.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -102 | 82 h 44 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Golden State. San Antonio was blown out in Game 2, 136-100. Unfortunately for Golden State, teams not off a straight-up and ATS loss are an awful 0-18 ATS at San Antonio since 1990, if they're not getting more than 5 points, and the Spurs are off a 15-point (or worse) defeat. Look for San Antone to bounce back on Saturday. Take the points with the Spurs. NBA Western Conference Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the 'under' in the San Antonio/Golden State game. The Warriors have won over 50 games each of the past four years. In 2014, they were 51-31, and averaged 104.2 ppg. In their 2015 Championship season, the Warriors won 67 games, and averaged 109.9 ppg. Last year, in their 73-win season, their offensive production increased to 114.8 ppg. And this season, the Warriors' offense bumped up even further to 115.8 ppg. But when they play at San Antonio, the Spurs have been able to control the pace, and limit Golden State's point production. Over this time, the Warriors have played seven games at San Antonio, and have scored 74, 90, 92, 79, 92, 85 and 110 points. Not surprisingly, five of those seven games went 'under' the total. To put this into context, consider that the Warriors have played 390 games over the past four seasons, and have played just 28 games (7.1%) where they scored 92 or less points. But the Spurs have held the Warriors to 92 or less points in six of the seven meetings between the two teams at San Antonio. The Spurs have also gone 'under' 64% of the time at home under coach Gregg Popovich when trailing in a Playoff series. Take the 'under.' NBA Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers blew out the Celts, 117-104, on Wednesday. But Cleveland had a huge advantage in terms of "rest" in that game, as it was playing with 9 days off. That won't be the case this evening. I look for Boston to get the ATS win, as home teams are 101-68 ATS in Playoff games off a Straight-up and ATS home playoff defeat, if they’re trailing in the series by exactly one game, including 21-12 ATS as home underdogs. Likewise, in Game 2 of a Playoff series, home dogs are 7-1 ATS since 1991 including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off a loss to open the series. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Golden State. It's absolutely true that the Spurs are wounded tonight, without their best player, Kawhi Leonard, in uniform. But it's dangerous to lay this many points to any playoff team. And especially when the favored team is off a playoff win, and not trailing in the series. Indeed, our NBA teams are an awful 1-10 ATS their last 11 in this situation when laying 12+ points. More ammunition for backing San Antonio: this is the most points the Spurs have received in any game since drafting Tim Duncan in 1997. The Spurs have been solid as big dogs, too, as they're 75% ATS as dogs of more than 8 points since 2002. Finally, San Antonio falls into 18-0, 80-37, and 39-11 ATS Systems of mine. Take the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 7 between Washington and Boston. These two teams easily went 'under' the total in Game 6, as they combined for just 183 points (against an over/under line of 215). And since 1991, teams that went 'under' the total by 31+ points in their previous playoff game also went 'under' 61.4% in the game after that, including 77% if the line was 204 or more points. Take the 'under' in the Celtics/Wizards game tonight. NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-17 | Spurs +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Houston. The Rockets lost Game 5 in Overtime, 110-107, to San Antonio on Tuesday, and now trail 3-games-to-2 in this Best-of-7 series. It’s true that Houston has home court advantage tonight, but that hasn’t proven to be a meaningful factor over the years, as home teams down 3-games-to-2 in a series are an awful 42-65 ATS since 1991, including 27–50 ATS if their opponent was seeded in the Top 2 of its conference. In the first round of this year’s Playoffs, we saw this situation four times where the road team took a 3-2 series lead into Game 6, and all four times, the road team prevailed. One of those, of course, was this Spurs team vs. Memphis, and the others were Toronto/Milwaukee, Washington/Atlanta and Boston/Chicago. Moreover, since 1991, San Antonio has gone 12-4 straight-up and 11-5 ATS when leading 3-games-to-2 in a Playoff series. And coach Gregg Popovich is 19-5 straight-up and 15-7-2 ATS vs. Mike D’Antoni in the Playoffs, including 9-2 straight-up and 8-2-1 ATS on the road. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 62 h 7 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Washington. The 4th-seeded Wizards come into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Boston, by 27 and 19 points. Unfortunately for Scotty Brooks' men, NBA teams are an awful 0-12 ATS since 1991 off back to back playoff wins by more than 10 points, if they're matched up against a #1 seed with a win percentage of .745 (or worse). And #4 seeds are a dreadful 27-56-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win by 12+ points. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -6 | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 13 m | Show |
Our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs. Analysis to follow. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs started rookie Dejounte Murray at point guard in Tony Parker's stead on Friday. And, though Murray was shaky early on with two turnovers, the Spurs survived to take a 2-1 series lead. Much has been written about the Spurs defense the past two games. San Antonio held the Rockets to under 100 points in back to back games, and that was the first time this year the Rockets failed to reach the century mark in two consecutive games. The Spurs also just held Houston to two of its three lowest-scoring games (of the 90 games it has played) this season. But before one gives ALL the credit to San Antonio, one needs to look further into the data. And one of the primary reasons for Houston's demise in Game 3 was its inability to convert open looks into points. Indeed, the Rockets were a miserable 6-for-35 on uncontested looks in Game 3. Part of that, of course is defense, as the Spurs' defensive strategy was geared toward getting the Rockets to take shots that wouldn't be their first option. But a large part of Houston missing 82.8% of its uncontested looks was just random bad luck. And I'm willing to bet that Houston will convert a much higher rate of its uncontested looks this evening. The Spurs are also a poor 1-9-1 ATS since 2004 when leading 2 games to 1 in a playoff series vs. teams seeded #3 or better. Take Houston minus the points. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-17 | Celtics +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Washington. The Wizards blew out Boston on Thursday, 116-89. But we'll back the Celtics to upset Washington on Sunday, as #1-seeded teams are a sensational 21-4 ATS as underdogs off a double-digit playoff loss to foes seeded #3 or worse. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 0-8 SU/ATS vs. Boston in the last 8 meetings where the pointspread was between 2 and 5 points. And NBA teams are 65.3% ATS on the road off Playoff losses by 22+ points. Take Boston. NBA Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State. The Warriors have had their way with most teams over the past several years. But Utah's been competitive, and is 10-9 ATS the last 19 meetings, including 5-3 ATS at home. It's true that Golden State hasn't lost yet this post-season. And that it's won five of its six games by 11+ points. Unfortunately for the Warriors, .587 (or better) teams are an awesome 22-0 ATS in the Playoffs since 1991, if they are matched up against .753 (or better) foes off back to back wins by more than 10 points, and our 'play-on' team (here, Utah) is not facing elimination. Take Utah. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. We played on San Antone in Game 2, and the Spurs rewarded us with a 121-96 victory. However, the Silver and Black suffered a massive blow when Tony Parker's quadriceps tendon ruptured late in the game to end his season. It's true that Gregg Popovich is the league's best coach. But one negative situation for the Spurs in the Playoffs is how they perform as underdogs off 20-point (or better) blowout wins. They've covered just 22% in this role since 2000. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 103-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston/San Antonio game to go 'under' the total. The Spurs tightened up their defense in Game 2, and held the high-octane Rockets to just 96 points (Houston scored less than 96 points just once in its 89 games this season). That bodes very well for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. Additionally, the Spurs will be without their floor leader (and 2nd leading scorer in these playoffs), Tony Parker, who sustained a season-ending injury in Game 2. Finally, eight of the last nine meetings between these teams in Houston have gone 'under' the total, including all four the past two seasons. Take the 'under.' NBA Total of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland. Cleveland comes into tonight's game with a 2-0 series lead, and has done it with back to back blowout wins. Unfortunately for LeBron James & Co., teams up exactly 2 games in a playoff series have covered just 35% of the time if they won each of their two previous games by more than 10 points. Take Toronto + the points. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 | Top | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Cleveland game. The Cavaliers scored 116 and 125 points in their two home wins to commence this series. And both games went 'over' the total. But the Cavaliers have generally gone 'over' the total in their home playoff games of late, and 'under' the total in their road playoff games. Indeed, Cleveland's gone 16-8-1 'under' the total their last 25 road playoff games, including 11-2-1 'under' if the line was 199+ points (compared to a 22-11-1 'over' run at home). Take the 'under' in the Raptors/Cavaliers game. |
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05-04-17 | Jazz +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State. The Warriors won Game 1, as expected, by double-digits. And they've yet to lose in the Playoffs. But this Game 2 will be closer than most expect. Indeed, home favorites of -12 or more points have covered just 26% of the time the past 28 years if they're off a Playoff win, and are not trailing in their series. Meanwhile, Utah's a solid 79% since May 9, 1991 as underdogs of more than 8 points in the Playoffs. Finally, #1-seeded teams are a horrid 39-68 ATS as favorites in Game 2 of a series off a win in Game 1. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 38 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston. The Celtics held serve at home, and now lead this Best-of-Seven series 2 games to none. But we'll go against the Celtics, as they scored more than 115 points in each of their two previous games. And teams off a Playoff win, in which they scored 116 or more points, are an awful 32% ATS since 1991 if they also scored 116 points two games back, including 0-8-1 ATS the past two seasons. Take Washington. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 219.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 38 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Boston/Washington game. The Celtics won Game 2 by a score of 129-119, and also scored over 120 points to win the opening game of this series. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Over in this Game 3 tonight. But I wouldn't do that, if I were you. Consider that, over the past 28 years, teams that scored 129+ in a Playoff victory have gone 'under' in their next game 75% of the time if the over/under line was greater than 218 points. Moreover, the Celtics have gone 'under' in seven straight road Playoff games, and 10 of their last 11 in the Post-Season since 2013. Take the 'under.' |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5 | Top | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston. The Spurs were blasted in Game 1, and lost by 27 points, as a 6-point favorite. And it wasn't even that close. The Rockets could have won by 40 had they not called off the dogs. But it's a new day, and a new game, and we'll back the Silver and Black tonight. Since 1991, in the NBA Playoffs, road underdogs of +3 or more points are a miserable 66-120 ATS off a win, if they're matched up against a .600 (or better) foe off a double-digit loss. And NBA teams that failed to cover by 33+ points are 90% ATS in the Playoffs since 1991 when the line has been less than 9 points. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13.5 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Utah. The Warriors won their first series 4 games to none vs. Portland, and I've been predicting since the preseason that the Warriors would go 16-0 in these Playoffs. Tonight is Game 1 vs. Utah, and the Warriors will have the distinct advantage of playing this series with seven days off since their last game. And that's a big advantage, as teams off 4-0 series sweeps have covered 73% of the time the past 26 years in Game 1 vs. foes off a series which went the distance. Utah did win the last regular season meeting between these teams, but it's still just 2-13 vs. the Warriors the past four seasons (6-9 ATS). And the Warriors are a super 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. .428 (or better) teams. Take Golden State. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston. A lot will be made of the MVP Runner-up match-up between Kahwi Leonard and James Harden. But this is also a series which pits two long-time coaching rivals, Gregg Popovich and Mike D'Antoni. And coach Popovich has dominated their 4 playoff series match-ups, as his Spurs have gone 16-4 SU and 13-5-2 ATS vs. D'Antoni's teams. And this dominance has occurred even though D'Antoni's teams were the higher seed in two of the four series. The Spurs won all four Game 1s in those series (including two outright upset wins), and were 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in Games 1, 2 and 3 combined! That doesn't bode well for Houston tonight. Certainly, one of Popovich's greatest strengths is his ability to game-plan. And that is best evident in his team's success in the opening game of a Playoff series. The Spurs are currently on a 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS run over the past six years in the first game of a series. And, in the 2nd round of the Playoffs, since 1998, the Spurs are 11-4 SU/ATS in the first game of a series, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points. It's true that the Spurs franchise has never defeated the Rockets franchise in the post-season. Indeed, the Spurs have had more futility against the Rockets (0 wins in three post-season series) than against the other five franchises they've faced in the Playoffs, but never defeated. However, the Spurs have never faced the Rockets in the Gregg Popovich Era, so this will be a great opportunity for the Spurs to finally notch a post-season series win vs. their Texas rival. San Antonio also falls into a super 66-26 ATS Playoff system of mine. Take the Spurs minus the points to win Game 1. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-17 | Jazz +4 v. Clippers | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Jazz + over L.A. (Analysis to follow.) |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 192.5 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
AT 3:30 PM, our selection is on the Jazz/Clippers 'under.'Â Analysis to follow. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 193 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the LA Clippers/Utah Jazz game. These two clubs have been two of the better defensive teams over the past two seasons. The Jazz finished with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating this season (behind the Spurs and Warriors), while the Clippers were 12th. Last season, both teams finished in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency (Clippers #6; Jazz #7). Not surprisingly, most of the Jazz games have gone 'under' the total when the line was 190+ points (78-55-2 'under'). Moreover, the Jazz have played seven of their last nine playoff games 'under' the total, while the Ciippers' last 12 Playoff games have gone 'under' eight times. Finally, tonight's Jazz/Clippers game falls into a 77-37 Totals system of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers +6 v. Jazz | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clips were upset in Game 5 by the Jazz and now trail 3 games to 2. But road dogs of +2.5 or more points, off an upset loss in Game 5, are 8-0 ATS in Game 6 if they trail in the series, and their opponent's win percentage is .667 or worse. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Celtics and Bulls to go 'under' the total. Seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the total. Additionally, Boston's been playing predominantly low-scoring games of late, as it's gone 'under' 12-3-1 its last 16 games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone 'under' 23-10 at home their last 33 games. Finally, dating back to 2009, the Celts have played nine straight Playoff Game 6s 'under' the total, while the Bulls have gone 'under' in Game 6 a whopping 79% of the time since May 29, 1992 (15 'unders' and 4 'overs'). Take the 'under.' |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 210 | Top | 115-99 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards 'under' the total. These two Southeast Division rivals have gone 'under' the total in six of the last eight meetings, and I foresee another relatively low-scoring game tonight. Indeed, Game 6 of a Playoff series between division rivals have gone 'under' 65.1% since 1991. And the Hawks have gone 'under' 10 straight times when playing a Game 6 in the Playoffs. Finally, the 'under' falls into a 188-130 Totals System of mine. Take the 'under.' |
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04-28-17 | Wizards +3 v. Hawks | Top | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over Atlanta. The home team has won all five games in this series, but road teams are 9-0 SU/ATS their last nine in the Playoffs in Game 6 if the home teams had won the first 5 games of the Playoff series. Take the points with Washington. |
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