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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 54 h 46 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Patriots -3.0 (10*) New England has historically been a huge money maker as a home favorite since Bill Belichick took over as head coach. That’s been especially evident during recent years. Since the 2013 season began, New England has gone an extremely profitable 35-13 ATS (73%) as a home favorite. Moreover, during that identical time frame, the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5-points or fewer when facing a non-division opponent, and they won by 14.6 points per contest. The current total on Sunday’s game against the Chiefs is 59.5, and that’s significant. Since 11/18/2012, New England is 14-0 SU&ATS at home when there’s a total of 50.5 or greater, and they won by an enormous 20.7 points per game. The Chiefs are coming off last Sunday’s 30-14 win over Jacksonville and they covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. That victory improved Kansas City to a perfect 5-0 in 2018. New England is coming off a 38-24 home win over Indianapolis and they covered as a sizable 10.0-point favorite. This previously mentioned data sets up a rare but unblemished NFL betting angle which is displayed below. Any home favorite of 4.5-points or fewer (Patriots) that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 21.0-points or less, and they’re facing an undefeated opponent (Chiefs) who’s coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1983. Those 9 home favorites won by an average of 13.1 points per game. Bet on the Patriots minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-13-18 | Georgia -7.5 v. LSU | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
Georgia @ LSU 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*) Georgia is undefeated at 6-0 thus far and have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 257-78. The Bulldogs have allowed 17 points or fewer in 5 of those 6 contests while they scored 38 points or more on all 6 occasions. Georgia doesn’t beat themselves and that’s evidenced by them committing just a combined 3 turnovers in 6 games. Since 10/18/2014, Georgia has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as a conference away favorite of 3.0 to 16.5-points when facing an opponent coming off a straight up loss. That’s applicable to Saturday’s game at LSU and the Bulldogs won those 6 contests by an average of 21.2 points per game. LSU has gone 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a conference underdog of 9.5-points or less after scoring 17 points or fewer in its previous contest. The Tigers lost those 4 contests by an average of 15.5 points per game. Georgia is coming off home wins over Tennessee 38-12 and Vanderbilt 41-13 in their last 2 games they’ve played. Conversely, LSU is coming off a 27-19 SUATS loss at Florida and did so as a 1.0-point favorite. The combination of those 3 results leads us to a a unbeaten college football betting angle which is shown below. Any away favorite (Georgia) playing after Game 3 of the season who’s coming off home wins by 14 points or more in each of their previous 2 games played, and they allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (LSU) coming off a conference SU&ATS loss in which it failed to cover by 8.0 points or more while they also scored 23 points or less, resulted in those away favorites going 15-0 ATS since 2010. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests was a sizable 29.9 points per game. Bet on Georgia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -6 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Giants @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Panthers -6.0 (10*) Carolina will enter this game well rested after enjoying a bye week. The last time the Panthers took the field they defeated Cincinnati 31-21 and cover as a 3.0-point home favorite. The Giants are coming off a 33-18 home loss to New Orleans. Any NFL regular season home favorite (Panthers) that’s coming off a bye week, and their previous game was a home favorite ATS win, versus an opponent (Giants) who’s coming off a straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS. The 9 home favorites won by a substantial average of 20.3 points per game. Bet on the Carolina Panthers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -9 | Top | 48-42 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 21 m | Show |
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Oklahoma State -9.0 (10*) Iowa State is coming off a 17-14 loss at TCU last Saturday in a game they were held to 198 yards of total offense. Since 1996, Oklahoma State is 32-11 ATS (74.4%). Since 1996 as a home favorite when facing an opponent coming off a loss in their previous game. If that opponent covered that previous game as an underdog the Cowboys improve to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) in that identical situation. Oklahoma State is an explosive offensive team that’s averaging 44.4 points and 545.4 yards per contest. Conversely, Iowa State averages a paltry 17.5 points scored and 299.5 of total offense per game. Oklahoma State is coming off a 48-28 win at Kansas and they covered as a 17.0-point favorite while doing so. The win improved the Cowboys season record to 4-1 (.800). The loss to TCU last week dropped Iowa State to 1-3 (.50) this year. These records and last week’s Oklahoma State SU&ATS winning result creates an extremely profitable college football betting angle that sides with the favorite in this matchup. Any home favorite of 9.0-points or more that’s coming off a favorite of 15.5-points or greater ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .600 to .800, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a win percentage of .250 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 43-9 (82.7%) ATS since 1992. Bet on Oklahoma State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
Miami @ New England 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: New England -6.5 (10*) We have a 1-2 team in New England who’s favorite against the 3-0 Miami Dolphins. An impulse reaction would lead you to taking the underdog in this spot just based on common sense alone. However, solely relying on common sense when it comes to NFL handicapping is the shortest route to betting poverty. New England has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during their last at home against Miami, and they won those contests by an average of 21.6 points per game. After beginning the season with a home win over Houston, New England preceded to lose 2 straight road games to Jacksonville and Detroit. Since 2011, New England is 4-0 SU&ATS following back to back losses and won by a decisive margin of 16.7 points per game. The Patriots are also 7-0 SU&ATS (+18.8 ppg) in their last 7 as a home favorite when facing an opponent who’s won 3 or more games in a row. Miami is 0-6 SU&ATS since 2015 as an away underdog of 6.0 to 13.0-points and when going up against an opponent who’s recorded at least 1 win on the season. Bet on New England minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame -5.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show |
Stanford @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 207-208 Play On: Notre Dame -5.5 (10*) Stanford was extremely fortunate to come away with a 38-31 overtime win at Oregon last week. Granted, kudos to them for overcoming a 4th quarter 24-7 deficit. However, that comeback was more of a byproduct of a bevvy of Oregon turnovers and a botched coaching decision by in the last minute that resulted in a fumble, when essentially all they needed to do was take a knee. That brain cramp by Oregon’s coaching staff allowed Stanford to mount a drive which led to a last second field goal that sent the contest into overtime. The win improved #7 Stanford to 4-0. Notre Dame head coach made a bold move last week by replacing former starting quarterback Brandon Winbush with Ian Book. The move paid off handsomely as Book passed for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to running for an additional 3 touchdowns during a 56-27 rout at Wake Forest. The Irish easily covered that contest as a 6.0-point favorite. That victory improved #8 Notre Dame to 4-0. Any home favorite of 8.0-points (Notre Dame) or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 32.0-points or less and scored 52 points or more, versus an opponent with at least 1 win, resulted in those home favorites going 30-6 ATS (83.3%) since 1997. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-22-18 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 26 m | Show |
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 4:00 PM ET Game# 387-388 Play On: Vanderbilt +2.5 (10*) South Carolina unexpectedly had last week off after Hurricane Florence swept through the Carolinas and resulted in their home game versus Marshall being cancelled. The last time the Gamecocks took the field 2 weeks ago they were hammered 41-17 at home against Georgia and fell far short of covering as an 8.5-point underdog. There’s no embarrassment in losing to Georgia but the manner of which it occurred was alarming for South Carolina fans. Vanderbilt began the 2018 season with home wins over Middle Tennessee State 35-7 and Nevada 41-10. Last Saturday they put up a valiant effort before better than 80,000 fans at Notre Dame before losing 22-17. Nevertheless, the Commodores covered with ease as a 14.0-point underdog. They’re now a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season. Vanderbilt’s defense has been outstanding thus far while surrendering a mere 13 points and 308 yards per game. The Commodores will be out to end a 9-game losing streak against South Carolina. However, their previous 3 losses to the Gamecocks all came by 9 points or fewer. This is potentially the best team Derek Mason has possessed since taking on the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. Bet on Vanderbilt for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets -2.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
Miami @ NY Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Jets -2.5 (10*) Miami has gone a dismal 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a division away underdog. The Dolphins christened their 2018 regular season campaign with a 27-20 win over Tennessee. The Jets are coming off an extremely impressive 48-17 road win at Detroit and did so as a sizable 7.0-point underdog. You may be surprised to know that the Jets are 6-1 during its previous 7 home openers. Any home favorite of 5.5-points or less that’s coming off a non-division away underdog straight up win in which they scored 41 points or more and allowed 10 or greater, and they’re facing an opponent who scored 21 points or more during its previous contests, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those contests was 13.5 points per game. Bet on the Jets minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +13 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State @ TCU Game# 203-204 Play On: TCU +13.0 (10*) You can’t be much more dominating than #4 Ohio State showed during fits first 2 games of the season. The Buckeyes recorded home blowout wins over Oregon State 77-31 and Rutgers 52-3. Since 2005, TCU has gone an outstanding 28-2 straight up in non-conference home games. The Horned Frogs opened their 2018 slate with a 55-7 home rout of Southern University. Then just 5 days later they hammered SMU 42-12 while covering as a substantial 23.5-point road favorite. Any college football home team (TCU) that’s coming off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ohio State) who scored 42 points or more during each of its last 2 games, resulted in those home teams going 40-9 (.816) straight up since 1980. As a matter of fact, since 2010, the home teams in that precise situation are an even better 22-1 (.957) straight up. The straight up records pertaining to this college football betting angle take on added significance when accounting for the home team (TCU) being a double-digit underdog. Bet on TCU plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -126 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Chargers -3.0 (10*) Talk about big time revenge, the Chargers have lost 8 straight times to Kansas City. The Chargers will look to build on the momentum of going 9-3 during their final 3 games last season, and that included a perfect 5-0 in its last 5 at home. Meanwhile, Kansas City ended last season by going a dismal 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 away games. Any home favorite of 3.0 or less that won 9 regular season games of more during the previous season resulted in those teams going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a decisive average of 12.4 points per game. Bet on the Chargers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-08-18 | Mississippi State v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Kansas State +9.0 (5*) Kansas State narrowly escaped last Saturday with a 27-24 home win against South Dakota, and they’re now 15-7 over their previous 22 games played. The Wildcats are now an impressive 26-2 straight up during their previous 28 non-conference home games. I look for Kansas State to bounce back from last week’s lackluster performance when they host #18 Mississippi State on Saturday. Speaking of Mississippi State, they christened their 2018 season with a resounding 63-6 rout of Stephen F. Austin. Any home underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points (Kansas State) that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less in which they allowed 17 points or more, and they’re playing in game 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 1993. The underdogs also went 15-5 straight up in those contests. Bet on Kansas State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-01-18 | Washington +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 23 m | Show |
Washington vs. Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Washington +2.5 (10*) This is one of those rare betting situations where I dispose of my technical handicapping hat and rely solely on my professional intuition. I predicted in mid-July for Washington to be one of my 2 sleeper teams to win the national championship at odds of +1600. If that indeed is going to transpire, or even have a chance of doing so, losing their season opener isn’t the path for my prediction to be realized. Additionally, a win against a quality opponent like Auburn during a game played in the hear of SEC country (Atlanta) would be a gigantic resume builder. If the football adage of defense wins championships hold true, then Washington has a solid foundation to do so. The Huskies return 9 starters from a defense that allowed 16 points or less in 9 of 13 games a season ago. Nevertheless, their key to a potential national championship run will mainly rest on the shoulders of 4th year starting quarterbackJake Browning. When Washington won the PAC-12 championship and reached the College Football Playoffs 2 seasons ago, Browning was nothing short of spectacular. During that 2016 campaign, Browning threw for 3430 yards while tossing 43 touchdown passes and was intercepted only 9 times in 391 attempts. Besides his career high 68.5% completion rate in 2017, Browning’s overall numbers dipped substantially last year. I expect the seasoned signal caller to bounce back with an outstanding 2018 season. Bet on Washington for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs. New England 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Philadelphia +4.5 (10*) New England defeated Jacksonville 24-20 in the AFC Championship Game but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. Since 2002, Super Bowl teams coming off a game in which they failed to cover as a favorite have gone 0-4 SU&ATS. The Eagles took the unusual route of entering this Super Bowl after winning each of their last postseason contests as an underdog. Since 2002, any Super Bowl team that’s coming off a straight up underdog win has gone 9-0 ATS and won straight up on 7 of those occasions. If those teams were a favorite or underdog of less than 6.0 points they were 5-0 SU&ATS and won by 10.8 points per game. Turnovers will play a huge part in winning Super Bowl LII. Philadelphia is averaging just 1.23 turnovers per game this season. Meanwhile, New England has forced just 18 turnovers in 18 games this season. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have not forced a turnover in their previous 4 games. Any team (Philadelphia) playing after Game 8 of their season, and they average 1.25 or fewer turnovers committed per game, and they’re facing an opponent (New England) who averages forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, resulted in those teams going 60-15 (80%) straight up since 2008. Since this straight up betting angle sides with the underdog on Sunday, there’s a ton of betting value to be had on the Eagles. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Philadelphia 6:40 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Philadelphia +3.5 (10*) For starters, this is an Eagles team that’s 8-1 at home this season, and their only defeat came against Dallas in a meaningless Week 17 regular season game. They were also a 2.5-point home underdog during last Sunday’s 15-10 Divisional Round win over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. Counting last week’s playoff game, Philadelphia is 14-3 (.823) this season. Since 1980, NFL playoff home underdogs have gone an extremely profitable 27-13 ATS (67.5%). If those postseason home underdogs had a win percentage of .750 or better, they improved to 9-2 ATS (81.8%) and won straight up on 8 of those occasions. Minnesota is also an identical 14-3 (.823) this season. Since 1985, any NFL home underdog of 2.0-points or more that’s playing after Game 5 of their season, possessing a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests was 13.5 points per game. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 49 h 31 m | Show |
New Orleans @ Minnesota 4:40 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Minnesota -4.0 (10*) New Orleans is 8-1 at home this season but a mediocre 4-4 on the road. As a matter of fact, the Saints are a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in its last 3 away games. Ironically, New Orleans opened the season at Minnesota, and lost that contest 29-19 in a game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates. New Orleans was outgained by Minnesota in that game by a decisive margin of 470-344. Since Mike Zimmer has taken over the Minnesota Vikings head coaching duties in 2014, Minnesota is 14-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite. Considering the sample size and continuity pertaining to this precise situation, it’s a team betting trend that I certainly can’t ignore. Additionally, we can’t dismiss how dominating the Vikings defense has been this season, and especially so at home. Minnesota has allowed a paltry 12.5 points and 248.5 yards per game in their 8 home contests this season. Furthermore, the Vikings have given up 10 points or less in 5 of its last 7 games, and that includes in each of their previous 3 outings. Bet on Minnesota minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
Atlanta @ Philadelphia 4:35 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Philadelphia +3.0 (10*) Granted there’s significant drop off from going with Nick Foles as opposed to Carson Wentz at quarterback. However, Foles is experienced enough to play within himself and not try to do too much. He’s also confident in knowing that this is an Eagles defense which has allowed 13.4 points and 321 yards per game at home this season. Philadelphia was a stellar 7-1 at home this season, and their only defeat came in their meaningless regular season finale to Dallas. The Eagles used primarily backups in that 6-0 loss to ensure it starters could avoid injury. Besides all that I’ve already pointed out, home playoff teams in this precise scenario have won at an extremely high rate over the past 26 years. Any playoff home team (Philadelphia) playing that had a bye the week before, versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off a playoff win, and they possess a win percentage of less than .705 (Atlanta .647), resulted in those home teams going 43-7 (86%) straight up since 1992. Considering the home team is an underdog in this instance, it takes on added betting value. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Alabama vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET Game# 155-156 Play On: Georgia +5.0 (10*) In my mind, this is an even matchup across the board with a lone exception, Georgia’s passing game is more consistent than Alabama’s aerial attack. This is also a Georgia team that averages 267 yards rushing per game, and has run for 238 yards or more in each of their previous 4 games. As a matter of fact, they torched Oklahoma for 317 yards son the ground in their thrilling double overtime win in the New Year’s Day national semifinal. Any neutral field underdog (Georgia) that averages 225 yards or more rushing per game, and has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those underdogs going 23-3 ATS (88.5%) since 1992. Bet on Georgia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
Carolina @ New Orleans 4:35 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Carolina +7.0 (5*) New Orleans has already defeated Carolina twice this season. It’s extremely difficult to be a very good football team 3 times in a season. Make no mistake, the 11-5 Panthers are a very good football team. If not for losing on the road to the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons last week, it would be Carolina hosting this playoff contest on Sunday and not New Orleans. New Orleans is very lucky that didn’t transpire after losing to a then 4-11 Tampa Bay team last Sunday. After going on a torrid 8-game win streak, New Orleans went just 3-3 during its last 6 games. At the very least, I like Carolina to take this game right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Bet on Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
Alabama vs. Clemson 8:45 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Alabama -3.0 (10*) This line tells me everything. We have the #4 seed Alabama as a favorite against top seeded Clemson in a playoff semifinal game. The Crimson Tide will also be out to revenge last year’s national title game last second loss to Clemson. Alabama is just as good as they were a season ago. Despite what the so-called experts on television are professing, I don’t believe that to be the case for Clemson. Bet on Alabama minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-31-17 | Bills -2 v. Dolphins | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Miami 4:25 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Buffalo -2.0 (10*) Buffalo is still alive for an AFC Wild Card berth. First and foremost, the Bills must win, or they’ll be eliminated from any postseason possibilities. Buffalo starting quarterback Tyron Taylor has enjoyed much success in his 5 starts against Miami since 2015. Taylor completed 65% of his passes for 1232 yards and 9 touchdowns while throwing 0 interceptions. Taylor also ran for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns in those outings. Buffalo went 3-2 in those games, and their only 2 losses came by just 3 points each. During Taylor’s 14 starts this season, Buffalo turned the ball over just 10 times. Miami quarterback Jay Cutler had a miserable day against Buffalo just 2 weeks ago. Cutler was intercepted 3 times during that 24-16 loss and looked totally disinterested and frustrated for most of the game. Miami has an awful -13 turnover margin this season, and they’ll be facing a Bills team which is +8 in that category. Don’t be surprised if you don’t see Dolphins backup quarterback at some point in this game. Fales has been taking a high volume of first team reps in practice this week. I’m going with the team that will be playing with a sense of urgency. Bet on Buffalo minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
Iowa State vs. Memphis 12:30 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Memphis -4.0 (10*) Memphis will be playing on its own home field and that’s significant. Since 2014, Memphis is 21-4 at home and that includes 10-0 when facing non-conference opponents. The Tigers are also 7-0 at home this season which included wins over bowl teams in Navy, SMU, and UCLA. Memphis has an outstanding season record of 11-2 with their only 2 defeats coming against undefeated and 10th ranked Central Florida. Any team playing at home in a bowl game with a win percentage of .666 or better, and they’re a favorite of 6.5-points or less, resulted in those teams going 5-0 ATS since 1980. There was a decisive average margin of victory of 18.4 points per game. Bet on Memphis minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State -7.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
USC vs. Ohio State 8:30 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Ohio State -8.0 (10*) Both these teams are offensively explosive. It comes down to who will be better defensively, and my money unequivocally goes to Ohio State in that regard. USC has surrendered 26.0 points and 404.8 yards per game this season. Conversely, the Buckeyes defense is allowing just 19.9 points and 292.3 yards per game. Another key factor will be Ohio State’s potent rushing attack versus the porous run defense of USC. The Buckeyes are averaging 250 yards rushing per game and average a lofty 5.9 yards per carry. USC is allowing 158 yards rushing per contest. This isn’t a good matchup for USC, and I see a similar result to when they faced Notre Dame earlier this season. The Trojans were blown out in that contest 49-14, and they allowed Notre Dame to rush for 377 yards and average 8.0 yards per carry. Bet on USC as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Rams @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Titans +7.0 (10*) The Rams are coming off a 42-7 blowout win at Seattle that put them in full control of the NFC West. That victory improved their season record to 10-4 (.714). The Rams start running back Todd Gurley has been on fire. However, he’ll be facing a Titans defense which allows just 87.2 yards rushing per game. Only Philadelphia and Minnesota have been better at stopping the run this season. Tennessee is coming off damaging road losses against San Francisco and Arizona. Despite those defeats, the Titans 8-6 (.571) record is still good enough to hold onto one of the AFC wild card spots. The Titans return home where they’ve gone 9-1 in their last 10 games, and that includes winning its previous 5 played in Nashville. Regardless of the quality of the opponent, that type of success at home couple with being a touchdown underdog creates substantial betting value. Any home team playing after Game 9 of the season, coming off road losses in each of their previous 2 games, and they own a winning record, versus an opponent coming off a win, and they have a win percentage of .444 to .714, resulted in those home teams going 20-1 ATS (95.2%) since 1983. Those home teams also won 18 of those 21 contests straight up. Bet on the Titans plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech +3 v. South Florida | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -115 | 91 h 20 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs. South Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 221-222 Play On: Texas Tech +3.0 (10*) South Florida enters this Birmingham Bowl with a terrific 9-2 (.818). Nonetheless, upon careful examination the Bulls played an extremely soft schedule. Their 8 victories over FBS opponents this season came against teams that currently have a combined 27-69 (.281) record. The Bulls other win came against a FCS team in Stony Brook, and that contest was tied in the 4th quarter before South Florida scored 2 unanswered touchdowns. Meanwhile, yes Texas Tech is only 6-6 (.500) this season, 10-12 over their last 22 games, but they’re better than those records indicate. The Red Raiders faced 3 FBS non-conference opponents in Arizona State, Houston, and Oklahoma State who all posted winning regular season records. Texas Tech managed to win 2 of those 3 contests. They also finished regular season with a 27-22 upset win at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog, and that qualified them for a bowl game. Subsequently, that win may have very well saved the job of head coach Cliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have much to be thankful for this bowl season, and will be plenty motivated against nationally ranked opponent. Any college football bowl underdog of 7.5-points or less that’s won 13 or less of their previous 22 games, possessing a win percentage of .500 or less, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .666 or better, resulted in those bowl underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2013. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 contests outright, and their only straight up loss came by a narrow 2-point margin. Bet on Texas Tech plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1 | Top | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
Rams @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Seattle -1.0 (10*) Whoever wins this contest will be in control of their own destiny in terms of being the AFC West Division winner. One thing is for sure, Seattle has been in a plethora of critical late season games during recent years. Meanwhile, the Rams roster has very little experience in that regard. It’s rare that we’ve seen the Seahawks as such a small home favorite over the past 6 seasons. A straight up win by Seattle on Sunday gives you an extremely high probability of covering. Keep this in mind as well, since 2012 the Seahawks are a superb 43-8 (.843) at Century Link Field in Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off last Sunday’s 30-24 loss at Jacksonville and that’s pertinent when handicapping this game. After all, the Seahawks are an unscathed 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss. Bet on Seattle for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 25 m | Show |
Chargers @ Chiefs 8:25 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Chargers (10*) The Chargers are playing excellent football right now, and should be commended since bouncing back from an 0-4 start to get where they are right now. It seemed unfathomable in October to ponder the Chargers would be playing a game in Week 15 that with a win could give them sole possession of first place. However, that will be exactly the case come Saturday night in Kansas City. The Chargers have won 4 straight and did so by a decisive average of 19.5 points per game. The Chargers are 7-6 heading into this week’s action. Nevertheless, keep in mind, 4 of their 6 losses have come by 3 points or less. Meanwhile, after jumping out to a 5-1 start, the Chiefs have lost 6 of their last 8 games. Kansas City won the first meeting against the Chargers 24-10. Any road pick/favorite of 6.0 or less, possessing a win percentage of .510 to .600, and their playing after Game 8 of the season, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1999. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests was 12.0 points per game. Bet on the Chargers for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Carolina +3.0 (10*) Minnesota is coming off a 14-9 win at Atlanta and they did so as a 2.0-point underdog. The win improved the Vikings record to 10-2 (.833). Carolina is coming off last Sunday’s 31-21 road loss at New Orleans. That defeat dropped their season record to 8-4 (.666). Since 2013, Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS at home following a loss, and when facing non-division opponents. Any home team (Carolina) during regular season action with a win percentage of .666 or better, playing after Game 8 of the season, and they allowed 21 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent coming off a straight up underdog win by 3 points or more in which they scored 14 or more, and they (Minnesota) possess a win percentage of .200 or better, resulted in those home teams going 42-0 straight up since 1981. Since this NFL straight up betting angle supports the home underdog, it takes on an enormous amount of more value. Bet on Carolina plus the points as a 10* Top Play underdog. |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game# 355-356 Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (10*) The defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons are showing signs of coming to life, and are beginning to resemble the team we witnessed a season ago. Atlanta is coming off a 34-20 home win over Tampa Bay, and they covered as a large 10.0-point favorite. Minnesota enters this week with an excellent 9-2 (.818) record. The Vikings won their last game 30-23 at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, and covered as a 2.5-point favorite. Any home favorite of 2.5 to 6.0-points, coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, versus an opponent (Minnesota) coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 17.0-points or less, and they (Vikings) have a win percentage of .400 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 12.9 points per game. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-02-17 | TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
TCU vs. Oklahoma 12:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: TCU +7.5 (10*) TCU has won each of their previous 2 games, and the most recent of which was a 45-22 victory over Baylor. Oklahoma is coming off a 59-31 win over West Virginia which improved their season record to 11-1 (.917). The Sooners are 21-1 during its last 22 games. Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0-points (TCU), coming off 2 straight wins, and they scored 42 points or more during their previous game, versus an opponent (Oklahoma) that’s coming off a win by 17 points or more, owns a win percentage of .857 or better, and has won 11 or more of its last 22 games, resulted in those underdogs going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 2013. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 21 games straight up. Bet on TCU plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Seattle @ San Francisco 4:05 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: San Francisco +7.0 (10*) The 49ers are coming off their bye week, and it was preceded by 31-21 home win over the Giants. It marked the first victory of the season for San Francisco. However, the 49ers have been more competitive than its 1-9 record may indicate. They’ve lost 5 games this season by 3 points or less. One of those narrow defeats came at Seattle when they fell to the Seahawks 12-9. Seattle is coming off a tough 34-31 home loss to Atlanta last Monday night. The Seahawks are now 6-4, and their defensive secondary has been ravaged by injuries. Any regular season division home underdog of 5.5 to 10.5 points (49ers) that’s coming off its bye week, possessing a win percentage of .400 or worse, and they’re playing with revenge, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 1987. The underdog also won 8 of those 17 games straight up. Bet on San Francisco plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-25-17 | Colorado v. Utah -10.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Colorado @ Utah 10:00 PM ET Game# 187-188 Play On: Utah -10.5 (10*) Utah has lost each of their last 2 games and is currently 5-6 (.454) The Utes must win their regular season finale on Saturday to become bowl eligible. Colorado is coming off a 38-24 loss to USC in its previous game. Any conference home favorite of 10.5 to 19.5-points, and they have a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 31 points or less. resulted in those home favorites going 27-6 ATS (81.8%) since 2008. If those home favorites are coming off 2 straight losses, they improve to 10-0 ATS since 2009. The average victory margin in those contests was 28.2 points per game. Bet on Utah minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
LA Chargers @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: LA Chargers (10*) Dallas is coming off an embarrassing 37-9 home loss this past Sunday night to their division rival the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys are now 0-2 SU&ATS without their suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott and were outscored by a combined 64-16. Since the start of the 2013 season, Dallas is 0-4 SU&ATS at home following a loss by 14 points or more. The Chargers jumped out to a 37-7 halftime lead last Sunday at Buffalo on their way to a 54-24 blowout win. That win improved their record to 4-6 and moved them within 1.0 game of the final AFC wild card spot. The Chargers are much better than their record may indicate. They’ve suffered 4 of those 6 defeats by 3 points or less, and can very easily could be 8-2 at this juncture. Any team (Chargers) that lead at the half by 14 points or more in their previous game, and is facing an opponent (Cowboys) who allowed 35 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 25-3 (89.3%) straight up since 2013. Bet on the Los Angeles Chargers for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
LA Rams @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Minnesota -2.5 (10*) The Vikings have been extremely good at home during recent seasons. Specifically, the Vikings are 18-6 SU&ATS in their last 24 regular season home games. During that exact time frame, the Vikings are a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS as a regular season non-division home favorite of 4.5 or less, and they won by an average of 10.8 points per game. The Rams have won each of their previous 3 games while covering as a favorite on all those occasions. Any home favorite of 4.0 or less that possesses a win percentage of better than .666, and they’re facing an opponent coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2001. The average victory margin in those 10 contests came by a decisive 15.3 points per game. Bet on Minnesota minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest -1.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Wake Forest -2.0 (10*) Wake Forest is coming off a 64-43 away favorite ATS win at Syracuse last Saturday. The win improved their record to 6-4 (.600) and made them bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons offense has caught fire over their past 3 games while scoring 37 points or more on each occasion. NC State escaped with a narrow 17-14 win at Boston College last week which put an end to a 2-game losing streak. The Wolfpack benefitted from Boston College losing starting quarterback Anthony Brown to a 1st half injury. Any conference home team with a win percentage of .444 or better that’s playing after Game 6 of the season, and they’re coming off a conference away favorite ATS win in which they scored 60 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 32-4 (88.9%) straight up since 1987. The straight up results in this betting angle takes on added significance due to the tiny number we’re being asked to cover. Bet on Wake Forest for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
Dallas @ Atlanta 4:25 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Atlanta -3.0 (10*) Atlanta is coming off 2 straight games in which they failed to cover as an away favorite. The Falcons lost 20-17 last Sunday at Carolina. Surprisingly, the defending NFC champions enter the 2nd half of their season with just a 4-4 record. It’s about that time in which they go on a winning run and resemble the team we saw a season ago. Any home favorite of 13.5-points or less (Atlanta) that’s failed to cover as an away favorite in each of their previous 2 contests, and they’re coming off a straight up loss by 9 points or less in its last game, and they possess a win percentage of .750 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by a decisive 17.6 points per game. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-11-17 | NC State v. Boston College +3 | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
NC State @ Boston College 12:00 PM ET Game# 133-134 Play On: Boston College +3.0 (5*) NC State is coming off a 38-31 home loss to Clemson in their previous game. Boston College is coming off wins of 41-10 at Virginia and 35-3 over Florida State during their previous 2 contests. Any team (Boston College) coming off 2 straight wins that each came by 31 points or more, versus an opponent (NC State) that allowed 37 points or more in their previous contest, resulted in those teams going 72-6 straight up (92.3%) since 1992. The straight up results take on added significance due to this betting angle supporting the home underdog. Bet on Boston College plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
Kansas City @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Dallas -2.0 (10*) Dallas has scored 30 points or more in each of their previous 4 games. The Cowboys have won 2 straight and now find themselves with a 4-3 record. Kansas City is coming off last Monday night’s 29-19 win over Denver. That victory improved their season record to 6-2 (.750). Any home team possessing a win percentage of .500 or better, coming off 4 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more on each occasion, versus a non-division opponent with a win percentage of .800 or less that scored 33 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those home teams going 26-0 straight up since 1993. The straight up numbers take on added significance due to the current point-spread on this contest. Bet on Dallas minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-04-17 | Texas v. TCU -6.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
Texas @ TCU 7:15 ET Game# 379-380 Play On: TCU -6.5 (10*) TCU will be in a sour mood after last week’s 14-7 upset loss at #14 Iowa State. What better way to bounce back from their first loss of the season than with a convincing win over in state rival Texas. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a 38-7 road favorite ATS win over winless Baylor. Any home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss by 21 points or less, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1982. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial 27.7 points per game. Bet on TCU as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 34 m | Show |
Denver @ Kansas City 8:30 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Denver +7.5 (10*) Denver is coming off a 21-0 road loss against the Chargers. That defeated dropped the Broncos season record to 3-3 (.500). Kansas City is coming off an excruciating 31-30 loss at Oakland in their previous game. The Chiefs enter this week with a 5-2 (.714) record. Any away underdog of 10.5-points or less playing before Game 9 of the season, possessing a win percentage of .538 or less, and they’re coming off an away loss by 21 points or more, versus an opponent coming off an away loss, and they have a win percentage of less than .750, resulted in those away underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1986. The underdogs also won 15 of those 18 games straight up. Bet on Denver plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-28-17 | TCU v. Iowa State +7 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
TCU @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Iowa State +7.0 (5*) TCU is coming off a 43-0 lopsided win over Kansas last Saturday. The Horned Frogs held a massive 475-21 total yards advantage while coasting to that victory. However, TCU is a poor 1-8 ATS since 2015 following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 yards or more. Additionally, the #4 undefeated Horned Frogs have in state rival Texas and #10 Oklahoma up next. Iowa State is 5-2 and enters this week riding a current 3-game win streak. The Cyclones have cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season after last Saturday’s 31-13 upset win at Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this is also the same Iowa State team that knocked off then unbeaten and #2 Oklahoma as a 31.0-point road underdog. I look for the Cyclones to give TCU all they can handle and then some. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-22-17 | Bengals v. Steelers -5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh 4:25 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Pittsburgh -5.0 (10*) Cincinnati started the season 0-3 and has since rebounded to win 2 games in a row. The Steelers will enter this AFC North showdown with a season record of 4-2, and have also gone 22-10 in their previous 32 games played. Any home favorite of 4.0 to 7.0-points with a win percentage of .666 or better, and they’ve won 17 or more of their previous 32 games played, versus an opponent coming off 2 or more straight up wins in a row, and they possess a win percentage of .454 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests came by 16.6 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh -7.0 for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-21-17 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -11 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Mississippi State -11.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off a 35-10 win over BYU. The Bulldogs covered in that contest as a sizable 22.5-point favorite. Kentucky is coming off a 40-34 home win over a Missouri team that’s 0-5 against FBS opponents this season. That win improved the Wildcats season record to 5-1 (.833). Any conference favorite of 10.5 to 21.0-points (Mississippi State), coming off a favorite of 10.0 or more ATS win in which they covered by 2.0 points or more, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .500 or better, and they are coming off a home game where both teams scored 31 points or more, resulted in those conference favorites going 25-0 ATS since 1995, and they won by an average of 26.6 points per game. Bet on Mississippi State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
Buccaneers @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Cardinals +2.0 (10*) Since 2013, the Cardinals are 7-0 SU&ATS at home when they’re +2.5 to -2.5. Since 2014, Arizona is 19-7-1 straight up at home, and that includes 11-0-1 during Games 5 through 13 of the season. Sunday will mark the Bucs 34th road game since 2013, and it’s only the 2nd time they will be installed as a favorite. Saying they’re entering unchartered waters would be a vast understatement. The Bucs are 0-2 SU&ATS in its first 2 games on the road this season. The Cardinals are coming off a humiliating 37-7 road loss at Philadelphia. The defeat dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off a 19-14 Thursday night home loss to New England, and they failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. The combination of this data leads us to a rare but perfect NFL ATS betting angle. Any home team (Cardinals) with a win percentage of .333 or better that’s facing a non-division opponent (Buccaneers), and that opponent is coming off a Thursday home underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 9.0 points or less, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1989. The home teams won those contests by the convincing average of 16.2 points per game. |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma -9 v. Texas | Top | 29-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs. Texas 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Oklahoma -9.0 (10*) Texas has vastly underachieved thus far by going just 3-2. They won their last 2 games over Iowa State 17-7 and Kansas State 40-34. The Longhorns are 0-4 SU&ATS during their last 4 games after back to back wins, and they lost by 18.3 points per contest. You may be surprised to know that Texas hasn’t put together a 3-game win streak since 11/15/2014. Oklahoma is coming off a stunning 38-31 loss to Iowa State last Saturday, and especially since the Sooners were a 30.0-point favorite in that contest. Oklahoma has gone 35-3 straight up in their last 38 games following a loss, and that includes 26-12 ATS (68.4%). If they were facing a conference opponent in those contests their record improved to 22-7 ATS (75.9%), and that includes 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 11.5 or less. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams -1 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
Seahawks @ Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Rams -1.0 (10*) As bad as the Rams have been in recent years, they’ve gone 3-1 during the past 2 seasons against Seattle, and have also defeated the Seahawks the previous 3 times when playing at home. The Rams are coming off back to back wins in which they scored 35 points or more on each occasion. Seattle is coming off a 46-18 home win over Indianapolis, and it improved their record to 2-2. However, they’re 0-2 SU&ATS on the road thus far. As a matter of fact, the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up in their previous 6 away games which dates back to last season. As good as Seattle has been during the past 4 season, they’re only a mediocre 16-16 in their last 32 games on the road. Any home team coming off 2 straight wins in which they scored 35 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent that has at least 1 loss on the season, and they’ve won 17 or less of their last 32 games played on the road, resulted in those home teams going 66-8 (89.2%) straight up since 1984. Considering the point spread in this contest, the straight up records take on added significance. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
Washington State @ Oregon 8:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Oregon +3.0 (10*) Oregon is coming off a 45-24 home win over California last Saturday. That victory improved the Ducks season record to 4-1 (.800). A win over a nationally ranked opponent would go a long way in putting Oregon back on the national radar. I look for the Ducks to be sky high on Saturday and turn in their best performance to date. Washington State is coming off a 30-27 upset win over USC which came as a 5.0-point home underdog. I just don’t see how the Cougars can possibly come close to match the intensity they displayed last week in that huge win, and especially so when playing on the road. A letdown is in the forecast. Any home team (Oregon) with a win percentage of better than .750, coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent (USC) coming off a conference home underdog straight up win by 8 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 38-0 straight up since 2000. Considering this straight up betting angle sides with the underdog, it certainly adds significantly to the betting value. Bet on Oregon plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-01-17 | Eagles +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
Eagles @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Eagles +2.5 (10*) The Chargers are off to a disappointing 0-3 and 2 of those contests were played at home. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, they’ve lost 6 straight at home. The most recent of which came last Sunday 24-10 against division rival Kansas City. The Eagles are coming off a thrilling last second win over the Giants via a made 60-yard field goal. The victory improved their record to 2-1. Since 2012, Philadelphia has gone 12-5 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 2.5 or less, and that includes 6-2 SU&ATS during away games. Any team (Philadelphia) possessing a winning record, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 14 points or more, and they (Chargers) have a win percentage of .250 or less, resulted in those teams going 46-4 straight up since 2008. The straight up results take on added significance considering Philadelphia is an underdog. Bet on the Eagles plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-30-17 | Arizona State v. Stanford -17 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
Arizona State @ Stanford 4:00 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Stanford -17.0 (10*) Arizona State is coming off a shocking 37-35 upset of undefeated Oregon, and they did so as a 15.5-point home underdog. That win evened the Sun Devils record at 2-2. The Sun Devils have surrendered 30 points or more in each of their 4 games this season. Arizona State has gone 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games following a straight up win. Stanford has gone an extremely profitable 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.0 or more when facing an opponent that allowed 32 points or more in their previous game. The Cardinal won all 8 contests straight up and did so by a massive 33.0 points per game. Stanford is coming off a momentum building 58-34 conference home win over UCLA which ended a 2-game losing streak. Any conference home favorite of 10.5 to 21.0 points that’s coming off a conference game, versus an opponent coming off a conference win by 3 points or less, and they (Arizona State) possess a win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2007. The average margin of victory in those contests was 30.9 points per game. Bet on Stanford minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers -5.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
New Orleans @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Carolina -5.5 (10*) Carolina and Cam Newton has had their way with New Orleans in recent games. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with their division rival while averaging 34.0 points scored per game. Carolina amassed 406 or more yards of total offense in 4 of those 5 contests. Based on the New Orleans’ defense allowing their opponents to rack up 512.5 yards per game thus far, and have failed to force a turnover, I look for Carolina’s offense to once again dominate against them on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has allowed 3 points in each of their first 2 games, and allowed a mere 196.5 total yards per contest. Carolina has opened the season with 2 straight wins, and is now 18-14 during their last 32 games played. Conversely, New Orleans has dropped its first 2 contests and failed to cover on each occasion as an underdog. The Saints are now 14-18 during their previous 32 games played. These results and past records fit nicely into a rare but never lost NFL ATS betting angle that’s illustrated below. Any division home favorite of 9.0 or less (Carolina) that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or more of their last 32 games, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight underdog ATS losses, and they also won 11 or more of their previous 32 games, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those contests was a substantial 20.4 points per game. Bet on Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-17-17 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 53 m | Show |
Cleveland @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 263-264 Play On: Baltimore -7.5 (10*) The Browns have gone 1-15 on the road during the past 2 seasons, and that includes losing 13 straight away games. As a matter of fact, since 2004, Cleveland is a pathetic 4-35 in division away games. If that isn’t enough, the Browns rookie quarterback Deshone Kizer will be making his first career start on the road, and it will be against what I perceive to be one of the best defenses in the NFL. Conversely, Baltimore is a superb 47-14 (.770) in their last 61 home games. Furthermore, the Ravens are 16-2 straight up and 12-6 ATS during their previous 18 games against Cleveland. The Ravens are coming off an extremely impressive 20-0 win at Cincinnati in their season opener. Any NFL home favorite of 4.0 or more (Baltimore), coming off an away win in which they held their opponent scoreless, and they’ve won 13 or more of their previous 32 games, versus an opponent (Cleveland) coming off a loss, and that opponents has won 24 or less of their previous 32 games played, resulted in those home favorites going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 1980. Bet on Baltimore minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-16-17 | LSU v. Mississippi State +7.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
LSU @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 187-188 Play On: Mississippi State +7.5 (10*) For starters, Mississippi State has the better head coach (Dan Mullen) and quarterback (Nick Fitzgerald) in this matchup. The Bulldogs have covered their last 3 games against LSU, won straight up on one occasion while its 2 losses came by narrow 2 and 3-point margins. Since 2012, Mississippi State has gone a stellar 26-9 at home. Since 2013, LSU is an abysmal 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS on the road following a win. Mississippi State is off to a 2-0 start. The Bulldogs opened with a 49-0 win against Charleston Southern, and then last week went on the road where they crushed Louisiana Tech by a score of 57-21. Mississippi State has now gone 13-9 over its last 22 games. A combination of the previously mentioned results creates a powerful college football betting angle which favors the underdog in this matchup. Any college football home underdog of 4.5 to 11.0-points, coming off 2 straight wins in which they scored 40 points or more in each contest, and they’ve won 10 or more of its previous 22 games, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 23-0 ATS since 1983. The underdog also won 18 of those 23 games straight up. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points for a 10* wager. |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Chargers @ Broncos 10:20 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Chargers +3.0 (10*) Although Denver’s defense is still considered among the top stop units in the NFL, their offense leaves a lot to be desired. They’ll be facing a Chargers team tonight that has improved considerably on both sides of the ball. The Chargers have covered in each of their last 5 season openers. They’ve also gone a very profitable 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games played in Denver. Furthermore, the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 division away games. The Chargers are coming off a poor 5-11 season, and are an abysmal 9-23 over their last 32 games overall. Nevertheless, NFL ATS betting history that pertains to opening games favors away underdogs with the Chargers win/loss parameters. Any away underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in its season opener, coming off a season in which they won 6 games or less, and they’ve won 9 or less of their last 32 games overall, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-3 ATS since 1980. They also won 12 of those 16 games straight up. Bet on the Chargers plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals v. Lions +2.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Arizona @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Detroit +2.5 (5*) You may be surprised to know, as good as Arizona has been in recent years, they’ve gone an abysmal 0-6 SU&ATS during their last 6 non-conference road contests, and lost by a decisive average of 14.5 points per game. Conversely, Detroit is a stellar 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 non-division home games. Any home team (Detroit) that’s +2.5 to -2.5 in their season opener, and they won 9 games or more in the previous season, versus an opponent that won 9 games or more in their previous season, resulted in those home teams going 16-0 ATS and 15-1 straight up since 1985. Bet on Detroit for a 5* wager. |
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09-09-17 | Houston v. Arizona +1 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Houston @ Arizona 10:30 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Arizona +1.0 (10*) This will be the season opener for Houston. Their scheduled season opener last week against Texas San-Antonio was cancelled due to “Hurricane Harvey”. Arizona is coming off last week’s season opening 62-24 win over Northern Arizona, and covered as a 27.5-point home favorite. Despite the win, Arizona is just 8-14 during its last 22 games. Any home team playing in their 2nd of their season (lined game), coming off a home favorite ATS win, versus a non-conference opponent (Houston) playing in its season opener, resulted in those home teams going 32-2 (94.3%) straight up since 1987. The straight up number takes on added significance considering this point-spread. Bet on Arizona for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 10 m | Show |
Florida St. vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Florida St. +7.5 (10*) Writing about how good Alabama has been in recent years, and how good they’ll be this season, is nothing more than redundant as well as boring. Hence, let’s talk about Florida St. The Seminoles are one of the few teams in the country capable of matching up with Alabama from an overall talent perspective. As a matter of fact, Florida St. holds the slight edge in experience with 16 returning starters from a team that went 10-3 in 2016, compared to 12 for Alabama. Furthermore, since 2012, Florida St. has gone a terrific 59-9 (.868) under the watchful eye of head coach Jimbo Fisher. That includes a National Championship in 2013, and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2014. Additionally, the Seminoles have won 7 straight season openers since Jimbo Fisher took over as head coach, and they’re also a perfect 12-0 in their first 2 games of the season since 2013. It all adds up to a sizable amount of underdog betting value regardless of the opponent, and especially so with the generous amount of points they’ll be receiving. Bet on Florida St. plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
New England vs. Atlanta 6:35 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: New England -3.0 New England is 23-8 in postseason games under Bill Belichik. This will be the 7th Super Bowl appearance for New England with Belichik as their head coach, and they’ve gone to the winner’s circle 4 times. All 6 of those Super Bowls came with current starting quarterback Tom Brady under center. Conversely, Atlanta has just 5 players on their current roster with Super Bowl experience, and none them played any type of significant role for the teams they represented. You can’t undervalue the big game experience this current Patriots roster has garnered in recent years compared to that of Atlanta. Since 10/5 2014, New England is 6-0 SU&ATS as a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win. New England has won those 6 contests by a substantial average of 20.0 points per game. Under Bill Belichik, New England is 12-3 in postseason games coming off a week of rest. Bet on New England minus the small number for a 10* wager. |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Atlanta 3;00 PM ET Play On: Atlanta -4.0 (10*) The public has certainly fallen in love with Green Bay, and they’ll be especially adoring with the Packers as an underdog. However, Atlanta has the offensive skilled position players to expose a Packers defense that I’m not all that impressed with, and that’s especially the case in their secondary. I’ve been impressed with the improved play of Atlanta’s defense in recent games, and that’s been especially the case in terms of their pass rush. Atlanta will enter this game on a 5-game win streak, won by 19.0 points per contest, and averaged a robust 38.0 points scored per outing. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Dallas 4:40 PM ET Play On: Dallas -4.0 (10*) I wish I had a dollar for every time I read or heard that Dallas isn’t that good since early October. Since losing their season opener at home to the Giants, Dallas has gone 13-2, and that includes a perfect 7-0 at home. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys were an unscathed 10-0 in non-division games this season and covered on 8 of those occasions. Those results included a decisive 30-16 win as a 5.0-point underdog at Green Bay on 10/16. You may be surprised to know, Green Bay has played in 3 playoff games on the road since 2013, and fell short in each of those contests. The unavailability of Packers wide receiver Jordie Nelson is a huge handicapping factor to account for. Although Randall Cobb had a monster game in last week’s playoff win over the Giants, he’s struggled when cast into a #1 wide receiver like what transpired a season ago. Since the 1986 NFL Playoffs, any home favorite of 3.5 to 8.5, coming off a loss in their last regular season game, and they possess a win percentage of .625 or better, versus an opponent (Green Bay) coming off a win, resulted in those home favorites going 21-7 ATS (75%) since 1986. Bet on Dallas minus the points for a 10* Top Play Wager. |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-36 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Atlanta @ Seattle 4:35 PM ET Play On: Seattle +4.5 (10*) Since the start of the 2012 season, Seattle has gone an extremely profitable 14-3 ATS as an underdog. If they were an underdog of 3.5 or more, the Seahawks were a perfect 5-0 ATS, and won 4 of those 5 straight up. Since 10/12/14, Atlanta is a dismal 3-13 as a home favorite, and that includes 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. As a matter of fact, the Falcons 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 or less, and lost 3 of those 4 straight up. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 0-5 ATS in 5 career starts in the playoffs, and lost 4 of those games straight up. Conversely Russell Wilson is 8-3 straight up and 6-5 ATS in 11 career starts during the postseason, and that includes winning the 2014 Super Bowl. Granted the Atlanta offense has been the most explosive in the NFL this season. However, their defense has allowed 28 points or more 7 times, and opponents racked up 387 yards or more of total offense on 9 separate occasions. I can’t ignore nor pass up the underdog value in this contest. Bet on Seattle plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Clemson vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Play On: Clemson +6.5 (10*) Just to refresh everyone’s memory, Clemson may have lost to Alabama in last year’s national championship game, but it was no fault of then sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson. During that contest, Watson threw for a massive 405 yards, tossed 4 passes for touchdowns, and rushed for an additional 73 yards. Watson was brilliant in Clemson’s semifinals win over Ohio State on New Year’s Eve. He accounted for 316 total yards and 4 touchdowns in that contest. Clemson gets a lot of acclaim for their high-powered offense, and rightfully so. However, their defensive prowess seems to fly under the radar. The Tigers stop unit is allowing just 17.1 points and 306.9 yards per game. They stifled Ohio State’s offense in their semifinal win by not only shutting them out, but also held the Buckeyes to a mere 215 total yards. The Alabama defense has been dominant this season, and it’s been a major reason why they’re a perfect 14-0 up until this point. They’re allowing a paltry 11.4 points and 244.4 yards per game. Alabama has allowed 17 points or less in each of its previous 8 games. Any college football underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 (Clemson), facing an opponent (Alabama) which allows 14.0 points or less per game for the season, and they allowed 17 points or less in each of their last 5 games, resulted in those underdogs going 43-15 (74.1%) against the spread since 1992. The average line in those 58 contests was 7.0, and the underdog won 25 of those games straight up. Bet on Clemson plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-02-17 | Auburn v. Oklahoma -3 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
Auburn vs. Oklahoma 8:30 PM ET Play On: Oklahoma -3.0 (10*) We’ve seen this line move quickly from 6.0 down to 4.5. Quite frankly, I attribute it to the overzealous Southeast Conference fans that still feel they’re superior when facing any non-conference team. Auburn is a terrific defensive football team, but they’re very limited offensively. That flaw reared its ugly head in all 4 of their losses, and it will again in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma went on a late season run that saw them win its last 9 games on their way to seizing the Big 12 title. Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield has been as good as any quarterback in the country during the second half of the season. Lay the points with “Boomer Sooner”. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State -2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Clemson 7:00 PM ET Play On: Ohio State -2.5 (10*) It’s extremely difficult for me to go against Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer in a big game, and especially on that’s a virtual even matchup like this one. After all, since taking over in Columbus prior to the 2012 season, Meyer is 61-5 (.924) as head coach of the Buckeyes. Furthermore, during that time span, Ohio State is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS as a favorite or dog of 4.0 or less. All due respect to Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, but my money will unequivocally be on Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes. Bet on Ohio State for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
Florida State vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Play On: Florida State +7.5 (10*) Sometimes it’s about motivation when it comes to handicapping bowl games. Pundits will tell you that Michigan is out to prove the playoff committee wrong for being snubbed. However, my past experiences lead me to disagree with those opinions. The disappointment of being relegated to a smaller stage often brings out the worst and not best for teams in the position Michigan will be. Conversely, Florida State has been out of national championship contention for quite some time, and are elated to be in this illustrious bowl game. Any underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 (Florida State), possessing a winning record, versus an opponent (Michigan) coming off a road loss by 3 points or less, and they also own a winning record, resulted in those underdogs going 35-10 ATS (77.7%) since 1993. The underdog also won 22 of those 45 games straight up. Bet on Florida State plus the points for a 10* Top Play selection. |
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12-29-16 | South Florida -10 v. South Carolina | Top | 46-39 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 45 m | Show |
South Florida vs. South Carolina 2:00 PM ET Play On: South Florida -10.0 (10*) South Florida flies under the radar a bit while heading into this bowl season with a stellar 10-2 record. They’re only 2 losses came at the hands of Florida State (9-3) and Temple (10-3). South Florida has scored 35 points or more in 10 of 12 games this season. Granted the SEC is still considered a vastly superior from top to bottom than the AAC. However, the disparity gap between those conferences narrowed considerably in 2016. South Carolina went 6-6 during regular season action, and their only win over a FBS opponent with a winning record came in an upset of Tennessee. The Gamecocks have averaged only 19.2 points scored and 336.4 yards of total offense per game Bet on South Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Vanderbilt vs. NC State 5:00 PM ET (Monday 12/26) Play On: NC State -5.5 (10*) The NC State defense has been stout against the run this season, further proven by them allowing just 105 yards per game on the ground. That’s significant when handicapping this contest, and especially when considering Vanderbilt has ran the ball on 56.7% of their offensive snaps during regular season action. Speaking of Vanderbilt’s offense, the Commodores have scored 17 points or less in 7 of their 12 regular season games, and they were particularly anemic when playing away from home. On the other side of the fence, NC State has amassed 469 yards or more of total offense in 6 of their 12 games. They’ll be facing a Vanderbilt defense which has allowed 453.3 yards per game over their previous 3 contests. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-18-16 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ Dallas 8:30 PM ET Play On: Dallas -7.0 (10*) It would be easy to be enamored with Tampa Bay as a touchdown underdog, and especially how well they’ve been playing of late. Dallas will be in a sour mood after having its 11-game win streak snapped last week after losing to the Giants. Play in front of the home folks in a primetime game is just what the doctor has prescribed for Dallas. Any NFL regular season home favorite of 3.0 to 9.0 (Dallas), coming off an away favorite straight up loss against a division opponent, and is facing a team which scored 35 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory was 16.5 points per game. Bet on Dallas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-11-16 | Saints +2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 11-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (10*) Dating back to 12/6/2015, New Orleans is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog, and won 5 of those contests straight up. Their 4 straight up losses in that sequence came by a combined 15-points. Conversely, since 12/19/2012, Tampa Bay has gone an abysmal 1-10 SU&ATS as a favorite of 2.5 or more. This will be just the 2nd time in 13 games that Tampa Bay has been installed as a favorite this season. New Orleans is coming off a 28-13 loss to Detroit last Sunday. The Saints have now gone 14-18 over their last 32 games played, including 5-7 this season. Tampa Bay is coming off a 28-21 win as a 3.0-point underdog at San Diego last week. That win improved Tampa’s record to 7-5. When combining these results and statistical data, it leads us to a never lost NFL betting angle illustrated below. Any underdog of 3.0 or less playing in a division game following a non-division contest, possessing a losing record, and has won 22 or less of its last 32 games, versus an opponent with a winning record and coming off an away underdog straight up win, resulted in those underdogs going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests was 9.3 points per game. Bet on New Orleans for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +8.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -130 | 35 h 33 m | Show |
Carolina @ Seattle 8:30 PM ET Play On: Carolina +8.5 (5*) Despite their 4-7 (.363) record, Carolina was an underdog for a first time all season in last Sunday’s game at Oakland. Although Carolina loss that contest 35-32, they covered as a 3.5-point underdog. Carolina has now gone 5-0 ATS since 12/7/2014 as an underdog of 8.5 or less, and won 4 of the 5 straight up. Furthermore, I love the character the team displayed by rallying from a 24-7 halftime deficit to take a 32-27 lead before coming up short. It must be noted, 5 of Carolina’s 7 losses have come by 3 points or less. It’s difficult to describe a team that’s 7-3-1 as being uninspiring, but it’s exactly how I feel about Seattle. Their offensive flaws were exposed again last week during a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay. The Seahawks offensive line isn’t playoff caliber, and Carolina still possesses a strong defensive front 7. Seattle has rushed for 96 yards or less in 7 of their 11 games this season. Carolina has allowed 91 yards or less on the ground during 10 of its last 11 games. I like the Panthers to at least stay inside this number, if not pull the outright upset. Any underdog of 3.5 to 9.5, playing after game 4 of the season, coming off a loss in which they covered as an underdog, and they own a win percentage of .250 to .400, resulted in those underdogs going 23-3 ATS since 2008. The underdogs were also 17-9 straight up. Bet on Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-03-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky 12:00 PM ET Play On: Western Kentucky -10.0 (10*) Louisiana Tech is coming off a 39-24 upset loss as a double-digit favorite in their regular season finale against Southern Mississippi. They’ll be facing a Western Kentucky team that’s won 12 straight conference home games, and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 when they’re a favorite of 19.0 or less. They won those 6 contests by a decisive average of 28.8 points per game. Western Kentucky is coming off wins of 60-6 over Marshall, and 45-7 against North Texas during their previous 2 games. They finished the regular season with a 9-3 record. They’ll be playing with revenge stemming from a 55-52 regular season loss at Louisiana Tech. Their other 2 defeats came at #1 Alabama, and a narrow 1-point loss at the hands of Vanderbilt. Any favorite of 6.5 to 19.0 (Western Kentucky), coming off 2 straight wins by 28 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent (Louisiana Tech) that allowed 37 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those favorites going 23-3 ATS (88.4%) since 2008. Bet on Western Kentucky minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Philadelphia 8:30 PM ET Play On: Green Bay +4.5 (10*) Green Bay (4-6) is coming off a pair of pathetic performances during road losses to Tennessee 47-24, and then last Sunday’s 42-24 loss at Washington. It would seem like a no-brainer to fade the rather small underdog of +4.5 tonight based on those last 2 results. However, NFL ATS betting history has shown differently. Any NFL team (Green Bay) that’s +5.5 to -5.5 with a win percentage of .200 or better, playing in game 3 through 12 of the season, and is coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 40 points or more in each contest, versus an opponent (Philadelphia/5-5) with a win percentage of less than .666, resulted in those teams going a perfect 7-0 SU&TS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests was a substantial 15.0 points per game. Here’s another NFL betting angle with a larger sample size. Keeping in mind Green Bay’s 42-24 loss at Washington last week, and noting Philadelphia’s 26-15 loss at Seattle in their previous game. Any non-division road underdog of 7.5 or less (Green Bay), coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, versus an opponent (Philadelphia) coming off a road loss by 26 points or less, resulted in those road underdogs going an outstanding 31-5 ATS (86.1%) since 1987. Furthermore, those road underdogs also went an impressive 29-7 (.801) straight up during those 36 contests. Play on Green Bay plus the points for my NFL Monday Night Game of the Year. |
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11-27-16 | Patriots v. Jets +8.5 | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
New England @ NY Jets 4:25 PM ET Play On: NY Jets +8.5 (10*) The Jets have played New England as about as tough as any team in the NFL during recent years. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 6-0 ATS versus New England in the last 6 times they faced them, and won 2 of the last 3 straight when playing at home. New York has the luxury of coming off a bye week. New England won 30-17 at San Francisco last Sunday, and they’re now 8-2 (.800) this season. The Patriots are stellar 24-8 over their previous 32 games. Any division home underdog of 5.5 to 10.0, coming off a bye week, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .375 or better, and they’ve also won 17 or more of their previous 32 games, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.4%) since 1987. The underdogs won 10 of those 22 contests straight up. Bet on the New York Jets plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-26-16 | Florida v. Florida State -7 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
Florida @ Florida State 8:00 PM ET Play On: Florida State -7.0 (10*) I haven’t been sold on Florida all season. Granted their defense is one of the best nationally. Nevertheless, the Gators offense leaves a lot to be desired. Florida State has too many weapons at the skilled positions for the Florida defense to remain stout for an entire 4 quarters. Florida State is coming off a 45-14 blowout win at Syracuse this past Saturday. On the other hand, Florida pulled off a huge 16-10 upset win as a 13.5-point underdog at Florida last week. Any home favorite of 4.0 to 16.5 (Florida State), coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent (Florida) coming off a win as an underdog of 6.0 or more, resulted in those home favorite going 43-4 ATS (91.4%) since 1985. As a matter of fact, since 1998, this precise betting angle has gone an even better 31-1 ATS (96.8%). Bet on Florida State minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-20-16 | Packers v. Redskins -2.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Washington 8:30 PM ET Play On: Washington -2.5 (10*) The Green Bay Packers clearly have issues heading into this week. They’re coming off straight up favorite loss to the Colts and Titans in each of its last 2 games. As a matter of fact, they’ve dropped 3 in a row, and last week’s embarrassing 47-25 loss at Tennessee that made them 4-5 (.444) put an exclamation point on their struggles. Washington is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 home games versus an opponent with a win percentage of better than .400. The Redskins are also 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 home games overall. Any regular season home favorite of 4.5 or less, versus an opponent coming off back to back straight up favorite losses, and that opponent t possesses a win percentage of .400 or better, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 16-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The average margin of victory in those contests was 14.4 points per game. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager wager. |
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11-19-16 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -7 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Duke @ Pittsburgh 3:00 PM ET Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (10*) Pittsburgh is coming off a monumental upset at Clemson last week, and did so as a substantial 22.0-point underdog. In case you’re worried about this being a possible letdown spot for the Panthers, consider that Duke is also coming off an upset win over their bitter rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils won that contest 28-27, and did so as a 10.0-point home underdog. Any home favorite of 7.0 to 22.0, coming off a straight up win as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a conference away underdog of 6.0 or more straight up win, resulted in those home favorite going 17-0 ATS since 2007. The average margin of victory was 21.0 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -127 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
Dallas @ Pittsburgh 4:25 PM ET Play On: Pittsburgh -2.5 (10*) Pittsburgh enters this week having gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3, and Dallas is a remarkable 7-0 SU&ATS during it previous 7 games. Yet, The Steelers are a favorite in this contest. The books are inviting you to take the red-hot underdog against a reeling opponent. Nevertheless, I’m not taking the bait. Pittsburgh is coming off a 21-14 loss as a 3.0-point favorite at Baltimore last Sunday. Pittsburgh is 10-0 SU&ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite following a loss by 7 points or more. Dallas won 35-10 at Cleveland last week, and easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite. Any home favorite coming off an away favorite straight up loss, playing before game 13 of the season, and is facing an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS since. The average margin of victory in those contests was a sizable 17.4 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-12-16 | Southern Miss v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion 3:30 ET Play On: Old Dominion -2.5 Ball security plays a major role in me making this bet. Old Dominion has a turnover margin of +10 while Southern Miss is an atrocious -12. That’s an astound +22 net difference edge for Old Dominion, and in a game the sportsbooks consider to be a virtual even matchup. Old Dominion is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season, and 4-1 SU&ATS versus Conference USA opponents with a substantial +22.7 point per game differential. Southern Miss enters this week having lost 3 of their last 4 games. Bet on Old Dominion for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Eagles @ Giants 1:00 PM ET Play On: Eagles +2.5 (10*) Let’s not get carried away with the Giants 2-game win streak. They defeated Baltimore who’s currently on a 4-games losing streak, and against a Rams team which has lost 3 in a row. Conversely, Philadelphia’s 3 losses this year have come by a combined 14 points, including last week’s 29-23 overtime defeat at Dallas. On the other hand, the Eagles 4 wins have come by a decisive average of 19.0 points per game. Any road team that’s +3.0 to -3.0, coming off a road loss, and has a win percentage of less than .625, resulted in those road teams going 59-15 SU&ATS (79.7%) since 2007. Bet on Philadelphia plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +8 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
Alabama @ LSU 8:00 PM ET Play On: LSU +8.0 (10*) I’m not going to try and convince any of you that undefeated and top ranked Alabama isn’t as good as their record indicates, or has several weaknesses that could be exploited. Quite frankly, that’s just not the case. Nevertheless, LSU has gone an exceptional 46-4 (.920) in its last 50 games at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, and that automatically creates a plethora of betting value on the home underdog. Since Les Miles was fired, and interim head coach Ed Orgeron took over, LSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS, and won by an average of 29.0 points per game. The LSU defense has been stout all season, and has allowed 20 points or less in all 7 games. The Tigers only 2 losses came on the road against #8 Wisconsin by 2-points, and #11 Auburn by 5. Any home underdog of 2.0 to 10.0, playing with rest after game 5 of the season, and they’ve won 24 or more of their last 28 home games, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, and that opponent scored 58 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 1988. The home dogs also won 9 of those 13 games straight up. Bet on LSU plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-30-16 | Chargers +4 v. Broncos | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
San Diego @ Denver 4:05 PM ET Play On: San Diego +4.0 (10*) San Diego enters this week with an uninspiring 3-4 record thus far. However, if you look closer inside the numbers, San Diego is a much better team than their record indicates. The Chargers 4 losses have come by a combined 14 points. With a little bit of luck, and a lot less bad fortune, the Chargers could’ve easily been 7-0 at this juncture. After starting 1-4, they’ve bounced back to win its next 2 games against Denver and at Atlanta. San Diego has been a terrific away underdog of late. The Chargers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as an away underdog of 2.0 or more. As a matter of fact, since 2013, San Diego has gone 8-0 ATS overall as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.0, and won 4 of those games straight up. You may be surprised to know that Denver hasn’t exactly been a profitable home favorite recently. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 8.0 or less following a win. Even more telling has been Denver’s ATS mark as a division home favorite of 6.0 or less. They’ve gone a dismal 0-6 in their last 6 in that precise role, and lost 5 of those contests straight up. Bet on San Diego plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection. |
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10-29-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Nebraska @ Wisconsin 7:00 PM ET Play On: Wisconsin -8.0 (10*) Think about this for a second. We have an undefeated team playing in the second half of the season, and they’re more than a touchdown underdog against an opponent who’s lost twice. Wisconsin’s only 2 losses this season have come against #6 Ohio State in overtime, and at #3 Michigan by a narrow 14-7 margin. The Badgers also own a win over a very good LSU team. Conversely, this will unequivocally be the toughest opponent that Nebraska has faced all year. Any conference favorite of 6.5 or more, playing in game 7 of the season or beyond, possessing win percentage of less than .800, and is facing an undefeated opponent, resulted in those favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. Their average margin of victory was a decisive 23.2 points per game. This is certainly an extremely rare and powerful betting situation. Bet on Wisconsin minus the points for a 10* top play wager. |
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10-23-16 | Colts +3 v. Titans | Top | 34-26 | Win | 109 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Play On: Colts +3.0 (10*) Tennessee has gone 4-21 over their last 25 home games, and that includes 1-16 when they’re +3.0 to -3.0. Since 2012, Indianapolis has gone 10-3 SU&ATS in their last 13 division away games. Indianapolis is coming off a heartbreaking loss at Houston last Sunday night. That defeat dropped their record to 2-4 this season. Tennessee enters this contest with a 3-3 mark. Any road team (Colts) that’s +3.0 to -3.0, playing in games 2 through 12, coming off a road loss, and has a losing record, versus an opponent (Titans) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those road teams going 34-3 SU&ATS (91.8%) since 2007. Bet on the Colts plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas v. Auburn -10 | Top | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
Arkansas @ Auburn 6:00 PM ET Play On: Auburn -10.0 (10*) After losing 2 of their first 3 games, Auburn has rebounded by going 3-0 SU&ATS in its previous 3 contests. By the way, their two defeats came at the hands of #4 Clemson (7-0) and #6 Texas A&M (6-0). The performance of Auburn’s defense has flown under the radar to this point. The Tigers stop unit has allowed only 16.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, during this current 3 game win streak, they’ve allowed a meager 11.3 points and 292.7 yards per contest. Auburn is also coming off a bye week and will be plenty rested. I wouldn’t make too much of Arkansas’s upset win over Ole Miss last Saturday. The Razorbacks did have the luxury of playing that contest at home. Ole Miss is an overvalued, overrated, and undisciplined team in my eyes. Lastly, the Rebels defense isn’t nowhere near as good as the one Arkansas will face on Saturday. · Auburn is coming off 38-14 win at Mississippi State. · Auburn has now gone 11-11 over its last 22 games. · Arkansas is coming off a 34-30 win over Ole Miss, and did so as a 10.0-point home underdog. · Arkansas is 14-8 through their previous 22 games. Any conference home favorite of 4.0 to 24.0, coming off a conference home win by 10 points or more, and they won 17 or less of its previous 22 games, versus an opponent coming off a conference straight up win as an underdog of 6.0 or more, and they’ve won 5 or more of their last 22 games, resulted in those home favorites going 47-4 ATS (92.1%) since 1985. Bet on Auburn minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Falcons @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Play On: Seahawks -6.0 (10*) Atlanta is coming off an impressive run of winning 3 games in a row, and did so as an underdog on each occasion. As a result, they’re off to a terrific 4-1 (.800) start to the season. Since 1980, there’s been just 12 teams which have accomplished that identical feat while possessing a better than win percentage of better than .588, and in their following games they proceeded to go a dismal 1-11 SU&ATS. Since 2012, Seattle is 33-5 at home, and that includes an extremely profitable 25-13 ATS (65.7%). Furthermore, during that exact time period, the Seahawks are 9-0 SU&ATS as at home when +6.0 to -6.0, and when facing a non-division opponent. Seattle had the luxury of a bye last week. Since 1980, any home favorite of 4.5 or more, playing an opponent coming off 2 consecutive straight up underdog wins, resulted in those home favorites going 6-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin was a massive 22.2 points per game. Bet on Seahawks minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-15-16 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +10.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 8:00 PM ET Play On: Wisconsin +10.5 (10*) Since 2004, Wisconsin has gone 74-9 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, and that in itself provides us with home underdog value without having to look elsewhere. Nevertheless, it would be careless for me not to explore further. After all, they’ll be facing an Ohio State team ranked #2 in the country. Here’s what I found to be very pertinent. Wisconsin gave #4 Michigan all they can handle at “The Big House” in Ann Arbor during a narrow 14-7 defeat in its previous game, and covered as a 11.5-point road underdog. My personal power index numbers indicate to me that of Ohio State and Michigan met on a neutral field today, Michigan would be a 4.5-point favorite. So why would one think Wisconsin couldn’t stay within this generous number they’re receiving, and especially when playing on such a strong home field. My power numbers also indicate that Ohio State should be just a 1.5-point road favorite in this contest. Furthermore, Wisconsin is coming off a bye week, and Ohio State played a tougher than expected Indiana team last Saturday. Any college football home underdog of 7.0 to 13.0 coming off a bye week, and has an .800 or better win percentage, versus an opponent with a win percentage of better than .909. resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 1983. The underdogs also went a notable 6-5 straight up in those contests. Bet on Wisconsin plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
Eagles @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Play On: Lions +3.5 (10*) Detroit is off to a disappointing 1-3 start. However, their 3 losses have come by a combined 11 points. Detroit is coming off a 17-14 loss at Chicago last Sunday, and failed to cover as a 3.5-point road favorite. The Lions have epitomized mediocrity by going 16-16 over their previous 32 games. They’ll be facing a Philadelphia team which is coming off a 34-3 blowout of Pittsburgh, and they easily covered as a 3.5-point home underdog. These teams met on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit last season, and the Lions won in a 45-14 rout. Any home team (Lions) coming off an away favorite straight up loss, and they won 16 or more of their last 32 games, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, resulted in those home teams going 44-5 (89.8%) straight up since 1980. Furthermore, if those home teams were playing non-division opponents, this betting angle improved to a perfect 25-0 straight up. The straight up numbers take on added significance since the home team in this instance is an underdog. Bet on the Lions plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Steelers 8:30 PM ET Play On: Steelers -4.0 (10*) Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing 34-3 loss as a 3.5-point favorite at Philadelphia last Sunday. The Steelers have recently been successful following a loss, and especially so during the early part of the schedule. The Steelers are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 contests following a loss, and when playing in games 2 through 7. They won those contests by a decisive 12.4 points per game. The final kicker, Pittsburgh will be out to revenge last season’s 28-13 loss at Kansas City. Kansas City is 0-5 SU&ATS in its last 5 as a non-division away underdog, and lost by 9.2 points per game. Additionally, they’re coming off a 24-3 SU&ATS win over the Jets last Sunday, and easily covered as a 3.0-point favorite. Any non-division home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that’s playing with revenge, coming off an away favorite straight up loss, versus an opponent coming off a non-division SU&ATS win in which they covered by 3.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorite going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory was a massive 20.0 points per game. Bet on the Steelers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-01-16 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
Wisconsin @ Michigan 3:30 PM ET Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*) Michigan has lived up to the preseason hype by going 4-0 thus far, and winning by an average of 36.7 points per game. The Wolverines are also 8-0 SU&ATS in its last 8 games as a conference home favorite of 10.5 or more, and their average margin of victory was 37.4 points per contest. Wisconsin has been a bit of surprise thus far by starting 4-0. The Badgers are coming off a 30-6 upset win at Michigan State last Saturday. They also own a win over LSU. Nevertheless, my personal eye test views Michigan as vastly superior to LSU and Michigan State. The Badgers don’t have the offensive firepower to score with any regularity against a stout Michigan defense. The Wisconsin stop unit has been superb thus far. Nonetheless, this will be far and away the most talented offensive team they’ve faced to date. Any conference home favorite of 6.0 to 14.0, coming off 2 straight wins, and scored 35 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog straight up win in which they allowed 30 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those contests was 20.5 points per game. Bet on Michigan minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-25-16 | Cardinals v. Bills +4 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Bills 1:00 PM ET Play On: Bills +4.0 (10*) After a disappointing 0-2 start, desperation and urgency will be Buffalo’s biggest ally against a very good opponent on Sunday. Beware of the wounded animal. Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 loss at the hands of their AFC East rival the New York Jets. Arizona’s previous game resulted in a convincing 40-7 home win over Tampa Bay, and they easily covered as a 7.0-point favorite. Any NFL home underdog of 5.0 or less (Buffalo), coming off a division home loss, versus an opponent (Arizona) coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 12-0 ATS since 1983. Furthermore, those home underdogs won 10 of the 12 games outright. Bet on the Bills plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-24-16 | Florida State v. South Florida +5.5 | Top | 55-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Florida State @ South Florida 12:00 PM ET Play On: South Florida +5.5 (10*) Florida State is coming off a humiliating 63-20 loss at Louisville last Saturday. The Seminoles allowed Louisville to rack up 530 yards of total offense, and trailed at one point 63-7 before scoring a pair of “oh by the way” touchdowns. Florida State also allowed 34 points and 380 yards to Ole Miss during their season opener. South Florida has scored 45 points or more in each game of a 3-0 SU&ATS start to the season. As a matter of fact, South Florida has now gone 7-0 SU&ATS in its last 7 regular season contests, and won by an average of 28.0 points per game. The Bulls will also be out to atone for last year’s 34-14 loss in Tallahassee. Any college football home underdog of 2.5 to 8.0, coming off an away favorite of 10.0 to 17.0 ATS win, covered by 1.5 or more, scored 27 points or more, and is facing an opponent of a loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.1%). The home underdogs also won 14 of those 17 games straight up. Bet on South Florida plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
Packers @ Vikings 8:30 PM ET Play On: Vikings +2.0 (10*) Emotions will be high on Sunday night in Minnesota. After all, it will be the defending NFC North champs first game in its new state of the art stadium. Not to mention, arch rival Green Bay is in town. The Vikings went into Tennessee last week and won SU&ATS with 36-year-old backup quarterback Shaun Hill at the helm. This week Sam Bradford makes his Vikings debut at that’s a huge upgrade compared to Hill. This is an excellent Vikings defensive unit, and they’ll play a major role in use collecting on this wager. The Packers had less than 300 yards of offense in last week’s win at Jacksonville. They’ll be facing a vastly superior stop unit on Sunday night. Since 2010, any underdog of 4.5 or less playing in their home opener which won 2 or more game during the previous season, and they’re facing a division opponent, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-1 ATS. The underdogs also won 15 of those contests outright. Bet the Vikings plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 36-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
Michigan State @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Play On: Notre Dame -7.0 (10*) Let’s start by saying this, Michigan State enters this week ranked #12, and conversely Notre Dame is at #18. Yet, it’s Notre Dame who’s the better than a touchdown favorite. That point spread in itself speaks volumes. Besides, I firmly believe this 2016 Michigan State team is vastly overrated. Michigan State opened their season two weeks ago with an uninspiring 28-13 win over Furman. How unimpressive were they in that contest? Well, I’m glad you asked. It was a one possession game with less than 5 minutes left to play, and then Michigan State scored a late touchdown to finally put their FCS opponent away. This is a perfect opportunity for Notre Dame to atone for their season opening overtime loss at Texas. Furthermore, if they can do so in emphatic fashion against what’s perceived to be a top quality opponent, it will serve their resume well. Despite that loss in overtime at Texas in their season opener, I’ve been very impressed with Notre Dame through their first two games. “The Irish” are very balanced offensively, and have been led by redshirt sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer who’s been absolutely superb. The defense was exposed a bit against Texas. Nevertheless, Michigan State’s offense isn’t going to keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night when preparing for them in 2016. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-11-16 | Bengals v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Play On: Jets +2.5 (10*) Note: Please buy this up to +3.0 if you possibly can. Otherwise, +2.5 is fine. This is one of those rare situations when you have a team (Bengals) which won 12 or more games the year before, and they’re in a +2.5 to -2.5 point spread parameter in their season opener. NFL ATS history has shown this to be an extremely profitable situation when fading such teams. Furthermore, I firmly believe when it’s all said and done, the Jets will prove to be a better team than Cincinnati during this 2016-2017 campaign. That point will begin to be made apparent starting on Sunday. Any home team which is +2.5 to -2.5, and is playing in its season opener, versus an opponent that won 12 or more games during the previous year, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 17-0 SU&ATS since 1987. Those home teams won those 17 contests by an average of 12.1 points per game. Take the Jets plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-10-16 | Virginia Tech v. Tennessee -11 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee 8:00 PM ET Play On: Tennessee -11.0 (10*) It’s definitely worth noting, the game will be played at a NASCAR venue in Bristol, Tennessee, and there will be 150,000 fans attending. Although the Virginia Tech faithful travel very well, Tennessee fans will make up a majority of Saturday night’s crowd. Tennessee barely escaped with a 20-13 home win in overtime last Thursday against 21.5-point underdog Appalachian State. Quite frankly, they were outplayed and outcoached. Needless to say, many pundits immediately proclaimed them to be an overrated team. I’ve seen this act before, and beware of the wounded animal. Tennessee is too talented and experienced to be flat two weeks in a row. Virginia Tech sleepwalked through three quarters of action last Saturday before pulling away to beat a FCS team. It will take new head coach Justin Fuentes a couple of years to return the Hokies back into national prominence. They will be in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday night. Any favorite of 10.5 or more, playing in game 2 of the season, coming off a home win by 9 points or less in which they failed to cover the spread, they won 8 or more games during the previous season, and has also won 14 or more of their last 22 games overall, resulted in those favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 1985. Play on Tennessee for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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