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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 1 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Saturday night. The Green Bay Packers spoke about getting their offensive "mojo" back after their win last week over Washington. I believe the "outburst" had more to do with the Skins' permissive defense as much as anything else. And while they won 35-18, Green Bay finished with just 346 total yards, which was actually about 35 yards less than the 28th ranked Skins' defense allowed per game this season. This week, Green Bay faces the league's 5th ranked defense, allowing just 321.7 total yards per game. I doubt very much Green Bay finds their running "mojo" or passing "mojo." And while Washington laid back and didn't blitz a banged-up Packer offensive line, the Cardinals certainly will bring heat and at other times, stack the box. The Arizona offense holds the hot hand in QB Carson Palmer, who has plenty of weaponry, including a strong ground attack. Arizona is a complete team, arguably the best team in the NFL and I expect another spread-covering win, aiming for the season sweep of the Packers. Arizona enters on a 20-6 ATS run as an underdog, PK, or favorite up to seven points. And NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 37-13 ATS run, if their opponent is in revenge, and off a win by 14 or more as an underdog (Pack closed +1 1/2 to +2 against the Skins). I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -4.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Saturday. New England is as healthy as they have been in a long time. Maybe not at RB, but certainly in the passing game with the return of all key receivers, including Julian Edelman. Having the threat of Edelman on the field helps Gronkowski become an even greater threat, himself. Defenses are also forced to play honest at the line. New England was 9-0 SU when Edelman played this season, winning by an average margin of more than 14 ppg. KC is limping their way into this one with WR Jeremy Maclin banged-up. Their one deep threat is questionable with an ankle injury and will reportedly be far less than 100% healthy even if he plays. That takes away a big part of the KC offense. Give KC a lot of credit for reeling off the long winning streak, and we know about Andy Reid's road spread record, but the schedule has been very soft, including last week's wildcard opponent. New England enters on a 13-4 ATS run when facing teams with at least a 64% completion rate, winning by an average margin of 12 ppg. They're also on an 11-3 ATS run off a double-digit loss as a favorite. I'm laying the points with New England, my Saturday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings OVER 39.5 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between the Seahawks & Vikings on Sunday. Minnesota found out two things when these teams met a month ago. They have a QB who looks like he's going to be a good one, but won't likely beat a defense of Seattle's caliber with the onus of the offense on his shoulders. And, they will have a better chance of beating Seattle if they mix things up on offense. I would expect more early-down, early-game passing and play-fakes to loosen up the Seattle defense. Meanwhile, since Seahawks' TE Jimmy Graham was lost for the season, Seattle's offense got back to what they need to do to succeed, rather than trying to figure out how to get Graham more involved. We have seen a bust-out performance by Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson is on a run that has produced a 24:1, TD:INT ratio. Yes, Marshawn Lynch is likely to miss this game and the team lost Thomas Rawls weeks ago. Three RBs must pick up the slack, but I believe we'll see even more out of the passing game in this situation. We have read and heard that games in temps as low as we expect in this one have tended to go under the posted total. However, as reported, since 2005, games played in sub-freezing temps have produced an average of more than 44 ppg. And in six games with the temperature below 10-degrees, the average combined points by the teams involved was more than 47 ppg. It's going to be very cold, but the winds are not expected to be a factor and the forecast calls for sunny skies on gameday. Seattle enters on a 4-0 Over run in postseason play, while the Vikings are on a 9-2 Over run at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm playing the Over between the Seahawks & Vikings, my Sunday Total Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Bengals on Saturday. The public is in love with the Pittsburgh Steelers...no shocker there and according to Las Vegas Sports Book Directors, this is about as big of a "Joe's vs. Pros" scenario as it's going to get. The Cincinnati Bengals own the better overall numbers. Cincy ranks in the top-10 in scoring and they're the second stingiest defense as far as ppg allowed. This is a play no matter who QBs the Bengals, but while AJ McCarron is expected to start on Saturday, the cast was removed from Andy Dalton's broken right thumb on Wednesday and he might play. While Dalton was having a terrific season, McCarron has proven himself since Dalton suffered the injury and will have his full offensive arsenal. This means the porous Steelers' defense is going to have too much to deal with in my opinion. Pittsburgh ranks 30th against the pass and 21st overall, and Cincy can beat you a multitude of ways through the air, whether McCarron is aiming for TE Tyler Eifert, one of his premier wideouts, or tossing to Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill out of the backfield. It's a tough offense for a less than stellar defense to deal with when all hands are on deck. The Bengals own a big advantage on defense and I do believe they'll hold the Steelers in-check. Pittsburgh has been shaky on offense the last two weeks and a key cog, RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle) isn't 100% healthy. Pittsburgh was held to 17 points and a fortunate 28 points by the Ravens & Browns the last two weeks. They were held to 30 yards rushing on 19 attempts by Cleveland and would not have covered if not for a Browns' fumble inside their own 15-yard line. The previous week, the Steelers gained just 198 yards through the air against Baltimore. Big Ben threw two INTs and no TDs in the loss. The Bengals' Reggie Nelson will be looking to make plays after finishing tied for the league-lead in INTs. We all know about the Bengals' past playoff struggles, but this is a different team. Cincy enters on a 12-3-1 ATS overall run, and they're 7-0 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm taking the points with Cincinnati, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Under between the Vikings & Packers on Sunday night. The Green Bay offensive line is less than 100% healthy and pass blocking has suffered. Aaron Rodgers was on the run last week against Arizona and his WR's are going to have a tough time separating from Minnesota's defensive backs. The Packers are facing a defense that ranks in the top-10 against the pass. Look for GB to attempt to set the tone with the ground game. Same goes for Minnesota. The Vikings would like to get the ground game going because the passing game is one of the worst in the NFL, ranked 31st in the league. And Green Bay's defense is better against the pass than they are against the run. The offenses struggled in the first meeting, a 30-13 Green Bay win. The teams combined for just 35 first downs and neither offense reached 350 total yards. I expect more of the same in this one with even fewer points scored. The Under is on an 8-1 run when Minnesota faces a team with a winning record, while the Pack have played five straight Unders at home. I'm playing the Under between the Vikings & Packers on Sunday, my Total Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-03-16 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the SFO 49ers on Sunday. A horrible season for the Niners, but they can bookend it with wins if they knock-off the Rams in this one. St. Louis is off three straight wins, including last week's over Seattle, despite gaining just 205 yards of total offense on just 3.87 yards per play. Todd Gurley had a big game, but the star RB is doubtful for this one with a foot injury. More importantly, and getting to the situational part of this handicap, the Rams are on a 0-7 ATS slide on the road off a division game over the last three seasons, getting outscored by an average margin of 14 ppg. They have covered just three of their last 16 road games when coming off a game where they gained less than four yards per play. The offense doesn't reboot quickly after a poor outing. I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, my Situational Shocker on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-03-16 | Ravens v. Bengals -9.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. This one looks like a match made in heaven if you're a Bengals' fan. Cincy has a ball-hawking secondary, producing 19 INTs on the season and the opposing QB will be Ryan Mallett, who believes in his arm so much that he forces passes into coverage. But it's more than just that. Cincy, having already won the AFC North will play all key players available on Sunday, according to reports. The Bengals can still win the AFC's #2 seed with a win over Baltimore and a Denver loss. There are a couple of other ways to gain the 2-seed, but that's the scenario they control. The Bengals will play hard since they go at 1 PM ET and Denver doesn't play until 4:25 PM ET. This one is also a case of the Ravens, who're done after this week, playing their "Super Bowl" in last week's win over chief rival Pittsburgh. The Ravens are also expected to take a look at young players in this contest. The Bengals are on a 9-2 ATS run against fellow AFC teams. Meanwhile, NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 51-23 ATS run if they're off a SU road loss, provided their opponent is off an upset win over a division rival. Finally, Cincy has been "money" this season, going 12-2-1 ATS. I'm laying the points with the Bengals, my Mismatch on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-02-16 | TCU v. Oregon -7 | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Oregon on Saturday. We liked the Ducks at +1 when Boykin was expected to start for TCU. Even though the line is now as high as it is, with Boykin's absence, we still side with the Ducks as a play. TCU will rely on senior QB Bram Kolhausen or freshman QB Forest Sawyer. The two have combined for a grand total of 69 pass attempts this season, completing just 37, with 5 TD passes and 4 INTs. That's in comparison to Boykin's 31 TDs, 10 INTs, and 65% completion rate. There's obviously no way to make-up for Boykin's running ability nor his know-how. Another issue, neither QB will have the team's top receiver to throw to with Josh Doctson ruled out of the game (wrist). He nearly doubled the amount of receptions over TCU's second best receiver and more than doubled the next receiver's yardage. Aaron Greene has had a strong season running the football for the Horned Frogs, but he's thrust into the role of the main "player" at this point for TCU, taking on a different role than he's used to. I expect Oregon to pull away in this one with TCU's inability to "keep up." TCU has covered just one of its last six bowls, while the Ducks enter on a 4-1 ATS bowl run. I'm laying the points with the Oregon Ducks, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford -6 | 16-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Stanford. Motivation is obviously a key part of the bowl handicap. In this case, we've seen an interested Cardinal team as they prepped for the Rose Bowl. Iowa, on the other hand, had high hopes of participating in college football's four-team playoffs, going undefeated until their final game of the season, the loss to Michigan State in the Big-10 title game. I am not one to play on a bowl team if they suffered their first loss of the season in their final game. Iowa must develop an early effective ground game if they're going to hang in this one. Stanford was as flat as can be in their season opening loss at Northwestern. But the Cardinal have scored 30 or more points in 12 straight games, including 35 or more nine times. Christian McCaffrey is a matchup nightmare for the Hawkeyes and he's not the only dangerous offensive performer for the Cardinal. QB Kevin Hogan has had a tremendous year, connecting on nearly 69% of his passes with 24 TDs and just 7 INTs. Five receivers have at least 248 yards receiving on the season and no less than 11 players have been on the receiving end of a Hogan TD pass in 2015. Meanwhile, the Iowa defense is middle of the pack against the pass, while the offense is one-dimensional, finishing the regular season ranked 89th in the passing game. Stanford has covered five of their last six bowl games and they're on a 12-4 ATS run, overall. The Pac-12 entry is 9-1 ATS under David Shaw after gaining at least 6.25 yards per play in two straight games, a true momentum team. They outscored those 10 opponents by an average margin of 24 ppg. I'm laying the points with Stanford, my New Year Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee v. Northwestern +8.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Northwestern on Friday. By now, those who have followed me know how much I like to back bowl teams that can run the football and stop the run. Northwestern does both incredibly well, averaging 193.2 yards rushing per game. Tennessee ranks 20th on the ground. But Northwestern stops the run (and the pass) like few others. The Wildcats rank 13th against the run, 26th defending the pass, and 11th in the nation overall, allowing just 310.5 yards per game. The Vols, meanwhile, are a little better than middle of the pack against both the run and pass. Northwestern won their first five games of the season and their final five games, losing to Michigan & Iowa in the middle. In fact, the Wildcats went 6-2 SU against bowl teams this season, including a 16-6 win over Stanford and a 13-7 road win at Wisconsin. The defense slammed the door over the final four games of the season, holding the opposition to 14 ppg. Tennessee didn't exactly look bowl bound with a 3-4 SU record through their first seven games. They won their final five games though, but none of the five wins came against teams playing in the postseason. The Vols played just six bowl teams this season, losing four. The passing game will be needed against the Wildcat defense and Tennessee would rather hand the ball off to Jalen Heard. After all, the passing game ranks 94th in the nation. Northwestern isn't likely to pile-up passing yardage either, but I do expect the offense to find more success than Tennessee's, based in part on the Wildcats' edge on the defensive side of the football. And besides their current 4-1 ATS run, the 'Cats are 46-27 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. I'm grabbing the points with Northwestern, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State +10 v. Alabama | 0-38 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Michigan State. 35 sacks! That's a stat we must mention in the handicap of this game. Michigan State's defense tallied all of those sacks thanks to intelligent defensive coaching, mixing several zone-blitz looks. Alabama QB Jake Coker has played above expectations, but I do believe he's going to have enough trouble against the Spartan defense to keep this one inside the number. He also might not get the same comfort-zone to pass in if the Spartans can keep Tide RB Derrick Henry from busting loose and keeping MSU honest. Remember, the Spartans were the only team to hold Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott in check, holding the Buckeye star to 33 yards on 12 carries, virtually eliminating him from Heisman contention. Some find Michigan State's numerous close wins as a reason to believe they're a little over-valued. But I tend to look at it as solid coaching and player-efficiency that gives the Spartans the chance to win games in the end. Mark D'Antonio and staff have done another terrific job. We're taking nothing away from Nick Saban and Alabama's talented roster. We just don't believe they'll cover this number. Bama has struggled ATS outside of SEC play, currently on a 2-10-1 slide in those games. Meanwhile, Michigan State is on a 33-16-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 4-0 ATS run in bowl action. I'm grabbing the points with Michigan State, my Playoff Hammer! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Wisconsin on Wednesday night. Despite less than typical Wisconsin-like offensive numbers this season, the Badgers still finished 9-3 SU, with three losses coming against Alabama, Iowa, and Northwestern. The Tide are in the running for a possible national title, the Hawkeyes missed a spot in the CFB playoffs by one game, and the Wildcats are a sturdy 10-2 and playing in a New Year's Day bowl game. The three teams own a combined record of 34-4 SU. The Badger defense is nasty, stingy, and fierce, and I expect the unit to cause problems for the USC offense. Wisconsin ranks #4 against the run, allowing just 98 yards rushing per game. They're 6th against the pass, 3rd in total yards allowed per game (267.1), and #1 in scoring defense allowing just 13.1 ppg. USC QB Cody Kessler (thumb) is expected to play and he does possess future NFL weaponry at WR to throw to. But with the way Wisconsin has played on defense, I do believe the Badgers will throw a wrench into the USC attack. And let's not forget the Trojans lost five games this season, including two of their last three, while averaging less than 25 ppg in the losses. The USC defense has been a mess most of the season, ranked 96th against the pass, while also allowing over 400 total yards per game. They were scorched for 41 points or more on four occasions this season. USC allowed nearly 5 yards per carry over their last three games and saw their last six opponents complete 123 of 175, a whopping 70.3% of their passes, with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs. It's no wonder Clay Helton canned DC Justin Wilcox and three other assistants after the final game of the season. Look for Wisconsin to take full advantage. I'm taking the points with Wisconsin, my Wednesday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-29-15 | Nevada +3 v. Colorado State | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Nevada on Tuesday. These teams are obviously familiar with each other since both reside in the Mountain West Conference. However, they did not meet this season. The last time they met, Colorado State emerged victorious with a 31-24 win. This year's matchup provides us with an excellent ground game against a porous run defense. The Wolf Pack offense owns a top-30 running game and is one of two teams with two 1,000-yard rushers. Meanwhile, the Rams have been horrible against the run, allowing 208 yards rushing per game, which ranks 108th in the nation. We should note that Nevada is on a 6-1 SU run when they rush for at least 200 yards in a game. We've seen a few of these kind of matchups so far this bowl season and have found success when we've stepped in on teams with strong ground games (leading into Tuesday). Nevada might also have a new wrinkle or two in the Pistol offense with WR's coach Jim Hofher taking over the offensive play-calling. Colorado State's offense has shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with a high turnover rate...one of the worst turnover margins in the nation, and the Pack have a ball-hawking secondary, ready to take full advantage. As they head into Tuesday's contest, the Wolf Pack are on a 4-0-1 ATS run against fellow MWC teams. I'm taking the points with Nevada, my Bowl Hammer on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force +7 v. California | 36-55 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Air Force on Tuesday. As a bettor you do yourself a favor most bowl seasons if you look to play on strong running teams, especially if they're facing poor run defenses. That's the case in this one. Air Force owns the second best running game in college football, averaging 322 yards rushing per contest. They'll face Cal's 102nd ranked run defense that allows over 203 yards rushing per contest. The Falcons are led by thousand-yard rusher Jacobi Owens, who leads no less than seven players who have rushed for more than 300 yards this season. But Cal is not just horrible against the run. The Bears rank 94th against the pass and I expect a few Air Force play-action passes in this one. Cal QB Jared Goff put up serious numbers this season, but he has no ground game to keep the Air Force defense honest and the AFA stop unit has played well against both the run and pass this season. Cal went 0-6 ATS this season against teams that averaged at least 425 yards per game. Meanwhile the Falcons are on a 6-1 ATS run as an underdog. I'm taking the points with Air Force, my Daytime Knockout on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Sunday. Green Bay has won three straight games after falling to 7-4 a few weeks ago. But the opponent gets much tougher this week after beating Detroit, Dallas, and Oakland. Green Bay is also getting quite a bit of notice for their offensive play since HC Mike McCarthy took over the play-calling two games ago. But facing the Cardinals means you're taking on the league's 4th best run defense and 7th best defense in total yards allowed per game. The run stat is an important one because McCarthy has been relying on the duo of Lacy & Starks in the running game to take pressure off of the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers in the passing game. I do believe Arizona owns the goods to slow down Green Bay's ground attack, even with the season-ending injury to Tyrann Mathieu. After all, it's Patrick Peterson's responsibility to match-up with an opponent's top receiver. Offensively, Arizona ranks 3rd through the air, 6th on the ground, and #1 in total yards per game. The running game will face Green Bay's mediocre-at-best run defense. That's a winning proposition for the Cardinals and when the ground game gets going, Carson Palmer and his outstanding receivers will make the Pack pay. Arizona enters this one on a 16-3 ATS regular season run when favored by less than seven points, or is an underdog. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my Mismatch GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 157 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Falcons, my KO GOW for Sunday, 12/27. We are on this one for several reasons, including the fact that teams that have been undefeated after 14 or more games have been horrible spread teams. Carolina (14-0) almost succumbed to the pressure in week-15, but due to mental on-field meltdowns by Odell Beckham, a dropped TD pass, and a couple of poor red-zone decisions by Eli Manning, the Panthers were able to hold on for a 38-35 win. We had the Giants plus the points and cashed, despite the fact they dug themselves a major hole. Atlanta finally got back in the win column in week-15, thanks in part to Julio Jones lighting up the Jaguar defense. Jones was slowed down by Josh Norman and company in the first meeting of the season, but still finished with seven receptions for 88 yards. I expect a different outcome this time with Jones making more of an impact. Carolina, like all other teams who have reached this point of the season without a loss are the hunted. And I believe the Falcons will hang the number. I'm grabbing the points with the Atlanta Falcons, my KO GOW on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-27-15 | Patriots v. Jets +3 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the NY Jets on Sunday. New York went into the fourth quarter of this year's first meeting, leading 17-16. While they eventually lost 30-23, the Jets know they matchup well with the Patriots. The Jets' defensive line held New England's offensive line in-check all game and I believe they'll do so again, especially with New England's RB issues. Steven Jackson is the newest Patriots' RB, but he may not see a lot of action, or at least get a lot of carries this week. And in this meeting, the Jets have a healthy safety in Calvin Pryor to go toe-to-toe with Gronkowski. That's another positive over the first meeting when Pryor was not 100% healthy. Offensively, I like the matchups for the Jets, especially with Decker and Marshall taking on a New England secondary with a ton of injury issues. The Jets enter on a 9-1-2 ATS December run. Meanwhile, the Pats are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five against winning teams. I'm taking the points with the NY Jets, my Week-16 Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-26-15 | Indiana v. Duke +3 | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Duke on Saturday. Most folks are expecting a high scoring game. I get that, but I do believe it'll be Indiana's defense that gives up the majority of those points. I actually have Duke with the higher power rating of the two teams. Both teams can pile up the yardage and the points, but Duke owns the much better defense even with safety Jeremy Cash listed as out for this one with a wrist injury. But Duke was strong against the run, ranked 38th in the nation and they allowed just over 370 total yards per game. The Hoosiers are a disaster on the defensive side of the football, allowing 37 ppg, while ranked 128th against the pass and 121st in total yards allowed per contest. While this should be a high scoring game, I expect a few defensive stands to be the difference in this game and Duke wins that battle. The Blue Devils are on a 26-13 ATS run. They're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and 12-4 ATS under HC Cutcliffe when the line is in a +3/-3 range. I'm grabbing the points with the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-26-15 | Southern Miss v. Washington -8.5 | Top | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 104 h 10 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Washington on Saturday. Great season for Southern Miss, but we went against them in their finale and cashed when the Eagles lost 45-28 to Western Kentucky. And we say now what we said then, Southern Miss has beaten just one team that currently owns a .500 record or better. The win came against La Tech. Southern Miss won 58-24, but the final score was misleading. The Eagles led 24-17 well into the third quarter, but eventually took advantage of no less than seven La Tech turnovers. Before the 17-point loss to WKU, and before the game with La Tech, Southern Miss played just two other teams with a winning record, losing 34-16 to Mississippi State and 31-10 to Marshall. That 13 ppg average was a far cry from the 47 ppg they scored against their other 10 opponents (before WKU). And high powered Southern Miss averaged just 4.92 yards per play, 3.2 yards per run, and 6.13 yards per pass with two TD passes and three INTs. Those were a few of the reasons we backed WKU a few weeks ago and are some of the same reasons we'll back Washington in this one. The Huskies scored a coaching coup when Chris Peterson agreed to sign-on, and this is one coach we know will have his team focused. Washington is 6-6 SU, but just 15 points from a 9-3 mark. And they won their final two games with ease, outscoring Oregon State & Washington State, 97-17. The defense is the best in the Pac-12 and will be a serious step-up in level of competition for Southern Miss. RB Myles Gaskin leads the U-W offense and I expect the offensive line to provide plenty of room, eventually opening up lanes in the passing game. We should note that teams off of back-to-back wins by 28 or more points are on a 60-23 ATS run, provided their opponent allowed more than 36 ppg in their previous contest. And Washington is on an 8-1 ATS run as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, outscoring those nine opponents by 22 ppg. I'm laying the points with Washington, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern +7.5 v. Bowling Green | 58-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Georgia Southern on Wednesday night. Nice start spread-wise for the MAC, after entering this postseason on a 14-28 ATS slide. We had Akron yesterday, but today we'll go against MAC entry Bowling Green. First of all, the Falcons will be without popular and successful HC Dino Babers, who has taken the same position at Syracuse. The Falcons enjoyed slinging the ball around under Babers and I expect the new look to be high powered also, under new HC Mike Jinks. But that'll have to wait until next season before Jinks can sink his teeth into this program's playbook. This year's defense was another story, repeatedly through the air, ranked 94th in the nation against the pass. They were mediocre against the run. Georgia Southern will offer the top-ranked running game in the nation, basing everything out of their triple-option look. Normally, with extra time to prep, some defenses are able to get a grasp on how to cover option offenses. But BGSU is not as quick as GASO and with the coaching situation, I expect the Falcons to struggle against Kevin Ellison, Matt Breida, LA Ramsby, and the rest of the Eagles' ground game. Breida ran for over 1,500 yards on 8.1 yards per carry. In all, GASO has four players who have topped 600 yards rushing this season and three of those gained more than 6 yards per carry. Here's the kicker: The Eagles also plays defense, ranked 27th against the run, 39th against the pass, and 21st in total yards allowed per game. GASO is on a 10-2 ATS run in non-conference action and they're 13-4 ATS against teams that complete at least 58% of their passes. I'm grabbing the points with Georgia Southern, my Bowl Hammer on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-22-15 | Akron +7 v. Utah State | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm grabbing the points with Akron on Tuesday. Experienced and motivation are the key words to describe Akron's defense and the entire team's attitude heading into Tuesday's afternoon contest. They're also led by Terry Bowden and Chuck Amato, who aren't exactly in their first rodeo. Akron will face a Utah State squad with bigger and better things on their mind than the Idaho Potato Bowl after whipping Boise State, 52-26. But the Aggies finished 2-4 SU and had to settle for yet another bowl trip to Boise. The motivational edge certainly lies with the Zips, who're making their first bowl appearance since 2005. Chuckie Keeton will wrap-up his injury-filled career in this one. But the Aggies' QB has completed just 53% of his passes the last two seasons with 5 TD passes and 10 INTs. We'll see a pair of QBs in all likelihood for USU, but I don't expect either to have their way with the Aggies' defense. Akron enters having won and covered four straight games, while the Aggies have dropped four straight ATS and seven of their last 10 outside of conference play. I'm grabbing the points with Akron on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-20-15 | Dolphins v. Chargers -1 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Chargers on Sunday. Yes, the Chargers are struggling through their worst record in 12 years and they have been hit by an injury epidemic all season. But SDG is 4th in the NFL in passing offense and given just a sliver of time, Philip Rivers will carve-up the shaky and worn down Miami secondary. Rivers is still an elite QB and while the Dolphins are still alive for a postseason berth, they're far from a true quality postseason team. The team was gassed on Monday night due to a lack of depth on defense. Suh had to play nearly every defensive snap. They're on a short week and it's a defense that ranks 30th against the run, 26th in pass defense, and 28th in ppg allowed. This unit is "just what the doctor ordered" for the Chargers to wrap-up possibly their final home game in San Diego on a winning note. Miami heads into this one on a 2-11 ATS slide after allowing at least 375 yards of total offense in consecutive games; they don't bounce back well. And they're on a 0-9 ATS December slide. I'm backing the Chargers, my Smackdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4.5 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday. The Panthers expect to be without RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) when Sunday's contest with New York gets underway. That's tough news for an offense without much depth at the position. Mike Tolbert & Forrest Whitaker have combined to run the football just 63 times this season. I'm a Cam Newton fan and maybe he deserves the MVP award, but he's completed less than 60% of his passes in eight of 13 games and he's finished at 50% or less in four games. The NY Giants have Odell Beckham on their side, and unlike some of the other top receivers the Panthers have faced, Beckham has a Super Bowl winning QB to deliver the football. In fact, after facing Julio Jones (struggling offense), Dez Bryant (QB mess), Deandre Hopkins (no true starting QB in Houston), Allen Robinson (Jags), and T.Y. Hilton (QB mess), this marks the first time Josh Norman will face an elite receiver with a QB who can get the job done. The Giants are just 6-7 SU, but they're a handful of plays and botched coaching moves from a 10-2 record. Road teams playing at least .750 football are 9-29 ATS if they're off a divisional win. Meanwhile, the Giants are on a 9-2 ATS run over the last two seasons against teams that average at least 7 yards per pass. They have defended those teams well, and have averaged 31 ppg, while allowing 24 ppg in those 11 outings. I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, my Top Hammer release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-20-15 | Texans +2 v. Colts | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday. Neither team will have their starting QB for this one. Instead, Houston expects to start to T.J. Yates, while the Colts will likely start Matt Hasselbeck, despite injured ribs. Indy is a mess no matter who plays QB, thanks to poor offensive line play and the inability for Hasselbeck to hook-up with Andre Johnson, who has become invisible on the field. Then there's the horrible Colts' defense that has allowed 96 points and over 900 yards of offense over the last two games. The Colts' defense should be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Texans to take sole position of the AFC South. Yates has shown he can handle his time behind center in the brief moments he's been on the field. I believe a start against the Indy "stop" unit will allow him to shine for the Texans on Sunday. We should note that road teams with a +3/-3 line range and following a game where they scored no more than 14 points are on a 24-5 ATS run, provided their opponent scored no more than 17 points in each of their previous two games. And the Colts are just 5-17 ATS after back-to-back double digit losses. Houston has not beaten the Colts since December 2012, but I'm betting they'll snap the skid on Sunday. I'm grabbing the points with the Texans, my Knockout Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-19-15 | Ohio v. Appalachian State -7 | 29-31 | Loss | -117 | 37 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Appalachian State on Saturday. Motivation is a key factor in early bowl matchups and while Ohio University will never grow tired of bowling, this is a much bigger deal for Appalachian State, making their first bowl trip. To tell you how excited the Mountaineers are to be here, their first ticket allotment sold out in less than 48 hours. While that doesn't guarantee a great performance, we do know the coaches and players are as excited as the fan base. ASU owns a premier RB in Marcus Cox, who has rushed for more than 12-hundred yards each of the last three seasons, including 1,266 on 5.8 yards per carry this season. Jalin Moore, Terrence Upshaw, and QB Tyler Lamb combined to run for another 1,450 yards on more than 6 yards per carry. Speaking of Lamb, the duo-threat signal caller has thrown 29 TD passes this season with just 8 INTs, while averaging nearly 9 yards per attempt. The Mountaineers are very quick at wideout and even though they won't have Shaedon Meadors (out - ankle), they have enough depth to give Ohio's defense plenty of trouble when they overcompensate to defend the run. Add it up and we believe the number on App State is more than fair. And we should note, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 65-26 ATS if they're off a road win and the opposition has won at least two straight conference games. Finally, the MAC is on a 4-13 SU slide, losing 12 of 17 ATS (14-28 ATS last 42 bowls). I'm laying the points with Appalachian State, my Bowl TKO on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs v. Rams -3 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 107 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Rams on Thursday night. St. Louis has done one thing extremely well all season...get to the opposing QB. The Rams enter tonight's contest with 36 sacks, good enough to rank second in the NFL. Jameis Winston was a disaster in the season opening loss to the Titans, but with help from a veteran coaching staff, he's improved, while also being protected by not having to carry his team. Tonight, under pressure, and without his full offensive arsenal, Winston is going to have to attempt to make plays. The problem is that Winston has completed less than 56.5% of his passes in five of his last seven games and seven of his 13 starts, overall. And toss out the ridiculous anomaly against the Eagles in week-11, and Winston has thrown just three TD passes in his other five games since week-9. The Rams, meanwhile, snapped a five-game losing streak that saw their 4-3 record fall to 4-8. They'll enter this one looking for their 6th win of the season, just six points away from a 7-6 record. The Rams' named Rob Boras Offensive Coordinator last week and he was awarded the game ball after they beat Detroit on Sunday. Boras is a Lovie Smith disciple and that helps the STL offense. I expect QB Case Keenum to be well-schooled on the Tampa-2. The Rams enter on a 13-3 ATS run against teams that allow no more than 3.5 yards rushing per game. STL has devised solid game plans against those teams. Meanwhile, the Buccs are on a 1-4 ATS slide on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm laying the points with the Rams, my Thursday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots v. Texans +4 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 43 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Houston Texans on Sunday night. Â Tom Brady is lining up without his full arsenal and we're seeing a definite effect of the totality of the injuries suffered by the Patriots. Â Yes, last week's loss was a bit fluky, but I don't expect an easy bounce-back here. Â Not only is Brady missing a consistent deep threat, but Gronkowski may not be at full health (probable) and the Pats are facing the NFL's 3rd stingiest pass defense. Â J.J. Watt missed Thursday's practice with a hand injury, but he and his coaches say he'll be ready to go on Sunday night. Â Houston's defense has played well the last five games, the team is 4-1 SU/ATS, and last week's 30-21 final score in a loss to Buffalo hardly tells the entire story. Â The teams were tied at 21 with two minutes to go in the game. Â Houston's on a 21-9 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and they're on a 4-0 ATS run after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game, building on momentum well. Â I'm taking the points with the Texans, my Knockout GOM. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-13-15 | 49ers v. Browns -1.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Johnny Manziel is expected to start for the Browns and that gives the offense more versatility with his ability to escape, pull the ball down, and pass deep on the run. He'll face a horrible SFO defense that ranks 27th in yards passing per game, 28th in yards rushing allowed, and 28th in total yards allowed per contest. Offensively, the 49ers' ground game has been non-existent for the last seven games, due in part to the injury to Carlos Hyde. There won't be much to keep the Browns' defense honest, which means they can attack the pocket and get after Blaine Gabbert. Big advantages on both sides of the line of scrimmage for the Browns on Sunday. SFO is 1-5 ATS the last six off a SU win and I'm going against them here. I'm backing the Cleveland Browns, my Sunday Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-13-15 | Steelers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh held Cincy to less than 300 yards of offense in the first meeting, a 16-10 Bengals win. Big Ben had just returned from injury and threw three picks in the game to aid the Bengals' cause. But the final 13 points scored by Cincinnati came on drives totaling just 57 yards on 13 plays, all helped out by Pittsburgh miscues. Big Ben has been on fire of late, passing for over 1,500 yards with 10 TDs in his last four games. DeAngelo Williams keeps defenses honest and the fact is, the Steelers have more weaponry than just about any secondary can handle. I also like the matchups in the trenches for the Steeler offensive line, led by Marcus Gilbert, who is having a tremendous season at RT. The Steelers are on an 8-0 ATS December run and they're on a 13-2-1 ATS run in Cincinnati. I'm backing Pittsburgh, plus the points, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-10-15 | Vikings +8 v. Cardinals | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Thursday night. We played against Minnesota on Sunday and cashed an easy one with the Seahawks. Seattle defenders harassed Vikings' QB Teddy Bridgewater all game and stated afterwards that the young signal caller was actually scared on the field. I expect Arizona to do the same. Force Bridgewater to win the game with his arm by slowing down the Vikings' ground game. Minnesota owns two wins over Detroit when they were struggling badly, a win over KC when the Chiefs were misfiring, and wins over San Diego, Chicago, the Rams, Raiders, and Falcons. Their last two "step-up" game did not go well, including last week's 38-7 home loss to Seattle and a 30-13 home loss to Green Bay two weeks prior. Arizona's defense is outstanding, ranked 8th against the run and 4th against the pass, and they're even better on offense where they're balanced and rank 1st in the NFL in total yards per game. The Arizona running game will attack a Viking defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry. The Cardinals are on a 9-2 ATS December run and Bruce Arians coached teams are 18-7 ATS against defenses allowing at least 5.65 yards per play. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. It's been a pretty amazing season thus far for Kansas City, winning five straight and getting back in the playoff picture after their horrible start. I don't believe they're going to continue the win streak on Sunday, though. Oakland has some weaponry that can give the Chiefs problems, including Latavius Murray, who has enjoyed a couple starts against KC, and the style of Oakland's passing game. The Raiders have a great third option in Seth Roberts and while I'm not the first to say it this week, it's worth repeating, the Chiefs have had problems with the third option, also known as the slot. Oakland averages around 267 yards passing per game and KC is on a 4-13 ATS road slide in the second half of seasons, against teams that average at least 260 yards passing per game. You'll remember last season's first meeting when KC entered Oakland Coliseum on a five game winning streak, only to lose 24-20. I expect more of the same in this meeting. Oakland is on a 4-0 ATS run within the conference and I'm grabbing the points with the Raiders, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-06-15 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Vikings | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. No Jimmy Graham for the rest of the season and Marshawn Lynch is out, but I'm not selling the Seahawks. First of all, I'd rather have Thomas Rawls in my backfield at this point. He's hitting the holes quicker than Lynch was this season and Minnesota allows over 4 yards per pop. Also, Seattle enters on a 6-3 SU run with the losses coming by 3 points in OT to Cincinnati, by 4 to Carolina, and by 7 to Arizona. They were a handful of plays from sweeping that set and any one of those teams could very well be playing for it all on February 7. The running game is terrific, the defense is playing extremely well and meanwhile, the last time we saw Minnesota step it up in level of competition, they finished on the wrong end of a 30-13 final against Green Bay. Minnesota has two wins over Detroit, a win over KC when the Chiefs were struggling, and wins over San Diego, Chicago, the Rams, Raiders, and Falcons. That's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. Yes, the Vikes have been a covering machine, but not here in my opinion. And if Seattle slows the Viking ground game, it'll likely be game, set, match. Seattle owns December football, on a 14-3-1 ATS run. And in second half of the season action over the last three years, the Seahawks are 10-1 ATS against teams that allow 61% or more completions, winning those games by an average of 29-13. I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks, my Sunday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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