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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 677 h 22 m | Show |
I'm backing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. The reason the Tide deserve to be here in the opinion of Las Vegas is due to the fact they'd be favored over every team in college football, including Clemson. Having said that, they're power rated to be 4.5 points better than Clemson on a neutral field. We are jumping on Alabama out of the blocks to take advantage of line value. We love interested bowl teams with A-plus running attacks and A-plus run defenses. Very few teams are part of that club and Alabama is one of them. In fact, they're the only team in college football ranked in the top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. We'll also get the Tide at the healthiest they've been for nearly the entire season. Another important key factor - Clemson's Kelly Bryant has played well, but his TD to INT ratio is nothing special, with 11 TDs and 6 INTs. He's no Deshaun Watson and let's not forget that Watson had to connect on 36 of 56 passes, for 420 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs in order for Clemson to eke by Alabama in last year's championship game. In fact, the game winning score, as you'll remember, was a Watson TD pass with 1-second left on the clock. Alabama's Jalen Hurts completed just 13 of 31 passes in the game and the Tide didn't have a 100-yard rusher, yet as well as Clemson played, again, it came down to the final play of the game. Hurts is much more experienced, obviously, and he's thrown 15 TD passes with just 1 INT this entire season. He doesn't make mistakes and he's rushed for 738 yards on 5.6 yards per carry with 8 TDs. Damien Harris leads the running game with nearly 1,000 yards and 8.2 yards per carry. He's one of three players on the roster to rush for more than 540 yards on the season. We have nothing but respect for Clemson, but we feel they'll be on the short end of the talent card here. I'm backing Alabama on January 1. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Wake Forest on Friday. This is a virtual home game for the Demon Deacons, but that's not one of the main reasons we're on them. Texas A&M reminds me a bit of UCLA heading into the bowls. The Aggies are off a disappointing regular season. They have a defense that allowed a ton of points on the road, an average of 35 ppg. They're middle of the road in just about every key category. And A&M will use an assistant as their interim coach before Jimbo Fisher takes over after the bowl season. A&M enters on a 0-5 ATS slide against ACC teams and will face an excited Wake Forest team that beat Louisville by 10 points, gained 587 yards against Notre Dame, came within 53-seconds and a 40-yard Seminole TD pass of a possible win in a 7-point loss to Florida State, and certainly didn't embarrass themselves in a 28-14 loss to Clemson. Wake QB John Wolford has had a tremendous season with 25 TD passes and only 6 INTs. He's a 64% passer, averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt, and he ran for 615 yards on 5 yards per carry. We note that Wolford is 10th best in the nation in passing efficiency. Wolford and the Demon Deacon offense will face the Aggies' defense, one that allowed 42 points or more on four occasions. Texas A&M should score some points, but I'm betting their defense will be out-matched and the offense won't be able to keep up. Besides A&M's 0-5 ATS spot mentioned above, they've covered just 16 of their last 54 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Wake is 8-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with Wake Forest, our Best Bet KO! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
The title of this game says "Arkansas State." Obviously, it's meant to be "Kansas State." I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday. Reports are saying Josh Rosen is not likely to suit-up tonight, (more on that in a bit). We normally give Bill Snyder about a 1-point advantage over most college football coaches, but in this case he might be worth a little more. After Jim Mora, Jr., was sacked, UCLA soon named Chip Kelly as their HC, but of course, his era begins after the bowl game. The Bruins' named OC Jedd Fisch interim coach. Fisch has been an assistant for 20 years with several different locales, but never a HC job. It's his job to try and make the most out of a disappointing season for a team that lost its coach and whose star QB (concussion) will likely take a pass as he readies himself for the 2018 NFL draft. Even if Rosen changes his mind and decides to play, he's less than 100% healthy and we'll play against the Bruins, anyway. UCLA didn't play well outside of Pasadena as it was. The Bruins lost all six games away from the Rose Bowl this season (1-5 ATS), allowing an average of 45.5 ppg! The Kansas State offense should have little trouble running at and through a Bruin defense ranked 129th in the nation against the run. Meanwhile, the Bruins ranked 114th on the ground on offense and if Rosen doesn't play, they will struggle to throw over the top of the healthy K-State defense. UCLA has struggled outside of Pac-12 play in general, currently on a 1-7 ATS slide in their last eight non-conference games. I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +1 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 52 m | Show |
I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Motivation means so much when it comes to minor bowls and the team that "owns it" is often the team that cashes tickets. In this case, the Wyoming fan base has reportedly shown little interest in traveling to Boise, something they do every other year in MWC play. More importantly, QB Josh Allen isn't 100% healthy. He's been bothered by a sore shoulder and is listed as questionable, along with a couple linemen on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Even if Allen starts, he certainly didn't have the season many had projected, due to the lack of weapons around him. Allen completed just 56% of his passes with a mediocre TD/INT mark of 13 & 6. The Cowboys don't have much of a ground game either. In fact, Trey Woods was the busiest Cowboys' back this season, carrying the ball 133 times, but averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Wyoming finished the season ranked from 101st to 120th in yards passing per game, yards rushing per game, total yards, and points scored per contest. CMU was terrific against the pass this season. Offensively, four of senior QB Shane Morris' top five receivers are seniors. And while the rushing stats may not look terrific, overall, they will have the most successful RB in this matchup in Jonathan Ward who ran for 6 yards per carry and finished just 12 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season. The Chips are on a 5-0 spread run, while Wyoming went just 2-6 ATS in non-conference action. Finally, I like CMU's added motivaton: The Chips' senior class will make their fourth straight postseason appearance and will be highly motivated to garner their first win. I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Idaho Potato Bowl. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-25-17 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +17.5 | Top | 31-0 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 27 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday. Gophers' HC P.J. Fleck signed an extension and his team still has a shot at bowl eligibility with a win on Saturday. There's no denying the Gophers were absent between the ears in last week's ugly loss to Northwestern. We expect a refocused effort in their final home game and that 39-0 loss gives us even more value on the home dog. Wisconsin has been good enough to win all 11 games this season and they'll have the pressure of knowing winning-out means a playoff invite in all likelihood. They'll have to grind this one out and hope Minnesota makes mistakes because the Badger passing game is unreliable. QB Alex Hornibrook struggled again last week, completing just 9 of 19 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. The Badger signal caller now has more INTs (12) than TD passes (11) over his last eight games. Minnesota's defense ranks 27th in total yards allowed per game and we expect them to give Wisconsin some trouble. The Gophers run the football well, themselves, and this one promises to be a slug-fest in our opinion. Minnesota is on an 8-2 ATS run off a game where they failed to reach 20 points, which is the case here. They're on a 7-0 ATS run off a double-digit conference loss, and P.J. Fleck-coached teams are 8-3 ATS against teams that win by an average margin of at least 17 ppg, while the Gophers are on a recent and current 3-0 ATS run in those games. Value lies with the home dog. I'm grabbing the points with Minnesota. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-24-17 | Texas Tech v. Texas -9.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 45 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Texas Longhorns on Friday night. Texas and Texas Tech are programs truly headed in opposite directions. It took a little time for Tom Herman to get things rolling in his first season in Austin, but we're starting to see why he was such a hot coaching prospect. Texas enters just 6-5 SU, but they are two OT losses and a total of 11 points away from a 9-1 SU run. Dual threat QB Sam Ehlinger will face a Tech defense that ranks 124th against the pass and 107th, overall. Tech allows over 30 ppg on the season and the offense has disappeared when the level of competition has picked up. Texas Tech scored a total of just 43 points in losses to Iowa State, Oklahoma, and TCU, over the last five weeks. The Red Raiders struggle on the ground, which puts more pressure on the passing game and that's simply not getting it done. We doubt they'll get any semblance of a ground game going against the Longhorns' excellent run defense, which means the Raider offense struggles. As mentioned above, the programs are in different spots right now with Texas Tech losing five of their last six both SU & ATS with the losses coming by an average margin of more than 16 ppg. Texas enters on a 7-2-1 ATS run, overall, and they have covered six of the last seven in this series. I'm laying the points with Texas, our KO release on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-24-17 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -20 | Top | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 42 h 5 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Friday afternoon. We went against New Mexico last week and cashed with UNLV, a late and fortunate cover. The Lobos did not play well, but came with a huge effort in their senior day game and saw victory stolen from their clutches in the final minute. UNLV won the game despite not playing well and struggling with defensive play-calling. The Lobos were crushed as they walked off the field. UNM has now dropped six straight games and lost the previous five by an average score of 37-10. The passing game is atrocious. Led by QB Lamar Jordan (although he hasn't been the lone offender), the Lobos have completed 29 of 68 passes (43%) the last six games, averaging 28 yards per game and 2.47 yards per attempt, with no TD passes and 7 INTs. SDSU lost to Fresno a few weeks ago, which keeps them from a berth in the MWC title game, but they can get their 10th win of the season this week. HC Rocky Long and staff will have no trouble prepping for the option, especially since UNM has no passing game to worry about as mentioned above. The Lobos allowed UNLV 534 yards of offense, including 363 yards rushing on 7 yards per attempt. The defense is done. SDSU and their 14th ranked ground game should run at will, while the Aztec defense, ranked 11th against the run and 13th overall, will slam the door. SDSU is on a 35-15-1 ATS conference run, including 19-6-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. And along with their 0-4 ATS slide, UNM has covered just 8 of their last 31 after allowing at least 450 yards. They don't bounce back well. San Diego State minus the points on Friday, our Afternoon Annihilator! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest -1.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 35 m | Show |
I'm backing Wake Forest on Saturday night. Both teams are bowl eligible and every additional win means a bigger and better bowl invitation. But we doubt NC State can slow the juggernaut that is the Wake Forest offense. The Demon Deacons have kicked it into another gear. Wake averaged 48 ppg in their most recent three games against Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Points scored weren't the only impressive stat. Wake averaged 649 yards per game on 7.8 yards per play. They ran for 258 yards per game on nearly 6 yards per carry, and the passing game has gone nuts the last three games, showing a 69% completion rate, an average of 391 yards passing per game on 9.8 yards per attempt with 10 TD passes and just 1 INT. NC State has been involved in three tough games in a row, finally picking up a 17-14 win at Boston College after a pair of losses to Notre Dame and Clemson. The pass defense can be had and as we noted above, Wake's passing game is on fire and QB Jim Wofford wouldn't mind exacting some revenge for last year's loss to the Pack. The Demon Deacons enter on a 9-2-1 ATS run in ACC play. They're on a 4-0-1 ATS run at home and have covered nine of the last 10 meetings in Winston-Salem. I'm betting we'll see more of the same on Saturday. I'm backing Wake Forest, our Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan +3.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan on Wednesday night. EMU isn't going bowling and they're going to finish with a sub-.500 record, currently 3-7 SU with two games to go. However, the Eagles have lost three games in OT, lost three more games by 1, 4, and 5 points, and even last week's 42-30 loss to CMU was a 5-point game with one minute to go in the contest. EMU can pass the heck out of the football, averaging 270 yards passing per game, while the defense ranks 15th against the pass. Miami got Gus Ragland back at QB last week and they beat Akron 24-14. Ragland threw 3 TD passes, but also threw 2 INTs. Ragland has thrown at least 1 INT in each of his last three games, has completed just 54.5% of his passes on the season and again, will face a strong pass defense tonight. And while the Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, EMU is on a 16-5 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss. We expect a SU win for the road team tonight, but our play is to take the points. Eastern Michigan, plus the points on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-11-17 | Tennessee v. Missouri -12.5 | Top | 17-50 | Win | 100 | 38 h 37 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday night. Butch Davis is all but gone following the end of the season and even in a win over out-manned Southern Miss last week, the Vols were unimpressive. That might have been the team's last big effort for their embattled coach. Mizzou HC Barry Odom was about two steps from being shown the door after a 53-28 loss to Georgia dropped the Tigers to 1-5. Since then, Missouri has dropped the clutch instead of dropping football games, winning three straight by 47, 40, and 29 points. This is Missouri's home finale before finishing on the road at Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and they need two more wins to become bowl eligible. The passing game is unstoppable right now and Tennessee's defense is prone to allowing a big ground game this week, also, ranked 123rd against the run. The Vols' offense is unreliable and we don't believe they'll be able to "keep up" in this one. It's certainly not the same team that clobbered the Tigers 63-37 a season ago. The Vols are 8-24 ATS off a cover, while Mizzou has covered five straight games. I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 3 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday. Miami keeps sneaking by lesser teams than the one they're going to face this week. The Hurricanes don't have RB Mark Walton and have been crushed on the ground the last two weeks. Miami was out-rushed 176-59 by North Carolina and 264-136 by Syracuse. Miami averaged just 3.04 yards per carry in those two games, putting pressure on QB Malik Rosier. The Hurricane signal caller has managed to stay away from the INT the last two weeks, but has completed just 52% of his passes. He and his offense will face the nation's 14th ranked pass defense, 12th ranked run defense, and 9th ranked defense overall, allowing just 284.5 total yards per contest. Va Tech DC Bud Foster will certainly have a wrinkle or two just for Rosier, and we're talking about a stop unit that allows just 11.5 ppg. Offensively, Va Tech owns a good passing game and ground attack, adding up to about 447 total yards per game. They crushed Miami in the trenches in last season's 37-16 win and while the Hurricanes are making strides under Mark Richt, we don't believe Miami has made up enough ground quite yet. Miami heads into this one 0-6 ATS off a win by six or less, while the Hokies are on a 12-3 ATS run as road chalk of three or less, outscoring the 15 opponents by an average margin of 13 ppg. They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, overall. I believe Miami will be exposed this week and I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-28-17 | Washington State -3 v. Arizona | Top | 37-58 | Loss | -107 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Washington State, our KO in the Pac-12 on Saturday night. Cougar HC Mike Leach gets a ton of credit for the passing game he brings to every coaching locale. But this year's Washington State Cougars also know a thing or two about defense where they're ranked 7th in the nation in total yards allowed per game, including 3rd stingiest against the pass, and 23rd against the run. And under his direction, the Cougars are a perfect 9-0 ATS against run-oriented teams, those that rush for at least 230 yards per game. Arizona has been a pleasant surprise for some, but the fact is, this will mark their biggest step-up in level of competition this season. The Wildcats don't bother passing the football, they run the ball as much as possible. But their four FBS wins came against defenses ranked 101st, 122nd, 95th, and 111th, in total yards allowed per game. Those teams also ranked 76th, 130th, 97th, and 119th against the run. The 'Cats played two teams with run defenses ranked in the top-60 (Utah and Houston) and lost both games. Arizona will also face a team that does pass the football a lot, but also possesses the football the majority of the game and gains more than 20 first downs per game. I bring that up because under HC Rich Rodriguez, the Wildcats are 0-7 ATS against teams that average at least 21 FDs per game and hold the ball for at least 32 minutes per game. Wazzu, as mentioned, fits the bill. Luke Falk and his teammates didn't show up for their game at Cal a couple weeks ago off the win over USC, but bounced back with a 28-0 win over Colorado last week. They held the Buffs to 174 total yards and just 80 yards rushing on 40 carries. That's the same CU offense that scored 42 against Arizona, while gaining 551 yards. Besides the numbers already mentioned, WSU is 15-3 ATS (4-0 this season) against teams that complete more than 58% of their passes and they're 11-1 ATS (2-0 this season) against teams that average at least 5.9 yards per play. Arizona is playing with revenge on their mind, but I'm betting they fall short. I'm laying the points with Washington State on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-26-17 | Stanford v. Oregon State +21 | Top | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Oregon State on Thursday night. Former Beavers' HC Gary Anderson stepped aside, resigning from his position a couple weeks ago and even said he wasn't focused on the job at hand. We saw immediate dividends when Cory Hall was named interim coach. The offense was bottled up and hamstrung under Anderson, but Hall opened things up in his first game calling the shots and Oregon State gained over 560 yards of offense in a 36-33 loss to Colorado. OSU led the Buffs until the final 1:34 of the game. This is not the same attack Stanford would have prepped for just a few weeks ago and that makes things a little more difficult. Meanwhile, whether RB Bryce Love (ankle) plays or not, Stanford will look to power their way to victory with the ground attack paving the way. So, even if successful, we are betting the Cardinal will not be able to pull away by a margin greater than the spread. Stanford also has bigger fish to fry coming up, facing Washington State, Washington, Cal, and Notre Dame, in that order, to close the season. The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS off a cover. Oregon State is on a 9-3 ATS conference run and they're 26-9 ATS after losing a Pac-12 game by no more than seven points. Stanford has won the last seven meetings, but the last five have come by an average of just 13 ppg. I'm grabbing the points with Oregon State on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-21-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -3.5 | Top | 31-69 | Win | 100 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday afternoon. It took a couple games for the FAU offense to catch on to OC Kendal Briles game plan. But now that they have, the Owls have been virtually unstoppable. After step-up games against Navy and Wisconsin, the Owls have scored 45, 31, 38, and 58 points in their last four games, winning three of them. The offense churned out an average of 505 yards on 6.2 yards per play in the four games, including 351.5 yards rushing per game on 6.57 yards per carry. We also note that QB Jason Driskel connected on 63% of his passes. North Texas has won three in a row, including last week's last minute game winning drive against UTSA, culminating in a 22-yard TD pass with 10-seconds left in the game. But after that emotional high, I expect North Texas to get beat in the trenches in this one, especially facing FAU's strong ground attack. It certainly doesn't hurt our cause that while North Texas was in a battle to the final gun, FAU had the week off to prep for the Mean Green. North Texas has covered just 7 of their last 22 road games, while the Owls have covered four in a row at home against teams with a winning road record. UNT is 4-14 ATS the last 18 times on the road following a SU win as an underdog. And finally, as chalk, Lane Kiffin is off to a 3-0 ATS start at FAU. I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic, our C-USA Chalk GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-14-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. UAB +6.5 | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 20 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with UAB on Saturday. The Blazers are getting little respect from the folks "behind the counter" and we'll look to take advantage here. UAB is not only a perfect 3-0 SU at home, but they're 4-1 ATS. The Blazers even knocked off Louisiana Tech 23-22 as a double digit underdog. You can't throw the football on UAB and they're at their best running the football on offense. We like both qualities. Especially with the pass defense facing a MTSU offense that can do nothing but pass the football. Take away the aerial game and I'm betting the Blue Raiders will struggle. MTSU is also suffering from a few key injuries, including starting QB Brent Stockstill (doubtful) who continues to nurse an injured collarbone. John Urzua has seen a lot of action behind center and has thrown more INTs (6) than TD passes (5). In fact, he's thrown just 13 TDs with 14 INTs in his career at MTSU. UAB enters on a 4-0 ATS run at home and a 4-0 ATS run in conference action. They're on a 6-1 ATS run, overall. I'm backing undervalued UAB plus the points on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-07-17 | SMU v. Houston -6.5 | Top | 22-35 | Win | 100 | 40 h 26 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday. Nice revenge spot for the Cougars, but that's a small part of the equation. Line value is obviously the main reason we make our plays on certain teams and the Cougars own the value in this one. Houston has been a favorite of 21 or more in each of the last three meetings, including last year when they lost outright as a 23-point favorite. While some faces have changed, including new HC Major Applewhite and no more Greg Ward at QB, the Cougars are still averaging over 280 yards passing per game. But Houston has taken on the tougher slate, which includes a 19-16 win at Arizona and a tough 27-24 loss against an improved Texas Tech squad. SMU has had just one step-up game so far this season and the defense got clobbered, allowing 56 points in a 20-point loss to TCU. SMU allowed 619 yards and 30 first downs. They gave up over 5 yards per carry on the ground and a 24 of 30, 4 TDs & 0 INTs night through the air. I'm not too crazy about SMU QB Ben Hicks who has completed just 54% of his passes after completing just 55% a season ago. Hicks threw 15 INTs last season and while he's thrown just three this year, he's only faced one strong defense, throwing two against TCU. His lack of accuracy and propensity to force throws means Houston could be in for a big pick or two in this one. Our raw power numbers have Houston 11 points better than SMU in this contest, a big and rare gap for us. We trust our power ratings and will back the Houston Cougars minus the points on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-30-17 | Northern Illinois +12.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 116 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker Game of the Month. Scheduling lies completely in favor of the Huskies in this one. NIU had last week off after beating Nebraska in Lincoln. And if he has to go again, they've had one more week to get QB Daniel Santacaterina more reps with the first team -- not that he's had any issues so far, completing 38 of 56, 68% of his passes with 3 TDs and just 1 INT. The NIU signal caller also has help in the offensive backfield from RB Jordan Huff, who topped 100 yards rushing against Nebraska and is averaging 6.84 yards per carry in his 238 attempts at NIU. The defense has been fantastic against the run thus far and will face a one-dimensional SDSU offense that's all about the run. The NIU defense ranks 19th against the run allowing just 98 yards rushing per game and they're 26th in total yards allowed. Now the second half of the scheduling advantage. The Aztecs are off three straight physically and emotionally tough football games, beating Arizona State, Stanford, and Air Force, winning the last two games on the final score of the game. SDSU got by Stanford, scoring the game winning TD with less than 10 seconds to go, and they beat AFA with a 53-yard TD run with just over 5 minutes to go. We had SDSU last week, but we'll go against them here. NIU wouldn't mind exacting a little revenge for last year's 42-28 loss. This Huskies' version is much better than the one that started 1-6 SU last season, including the loss to the Aztecs. NIU is a true road warrior, currently on a 24-7-2 ATS run on the road. They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-23-17 | Cincinnati v. Navy -11.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday. The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a tough spot, off a fortunate win over Miami-Oh in an in-state clash. Cincy trailed Miami, 17-6 with less than 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before a Miami meltdown allowed the Bearcats to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Cincinnati scored the game winning TD on a pick-6 with 1:40 to go in the game. It was obviously a huge win for the Bearcats and now they must gear-up for an offense they don't see. With UC and Navy playing in different divisions, this marks the first time the teams have met since the AAC was formed. Tough to get ready for an option you have never seen. Navy was off last week after beating Tulane, 23-21 two weeks ago (we won with Tulane plus points). But it marked the 5th time Tulane had faced an option in three years, including having seen Navy. And we should note Cincy ranks 88th against the run. Meanwhile, the Cincy offense ranks 111th through the air, 113th on the ground and 124th in total yards per game. The Middies are on a 14-4 ATS run at home and they start well, currently on a 6-1 ATS September run the last 2+ years. I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday, our Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-16-17 | Kansas State -3.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 35 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Saturday. Just about everybody who's anybody is back for K-State this season and QB Jesse Ertz is getting it done through the air, while also keeping defenses honest with his feet and ability to escape pressure. Ertz is averaging nearly 14 yards per pass attempt, while connecting on 70.3% of his passes. Both teams are stepping up in class of opponent this week, but we believe the 'Cats will be more capable of handling it. Vandy would like to grind it out a bit, but they ran for 2.2 yards per carry against MSTU in opening week action. They had to rely on arm of QB Kyle Shurmur, who has yet to fave any pressure. That changes this week. We expect the K-State defense to hold the Vandy offense in check, while the Wildcat offense does the rest. K-State averages 5.9 yards per carry, while Vandy averages just 3.5. We note that CFB teams averaging at least 4.8 yards per carry are on a 32-9 ATS run if they out-rushed their previous opponent by at least 125 yards and are facing a team that runs for 3 to 3.5 yards per carry. Both teams fit the bill and K-State out-rushed Charlotte by nearly 200 yards last week. The 'Cats also react well on the road off two straight home games, covering 15 of the last 20. I'm laying the points with Kansas State, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-09-17 | Indiana -3.5 v. Virginia | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Indiana on Saturday afternoon. We saw the Hoosiers give the heavily favored Buckeyes all they could handle for a good portion of the game. The contest was definitely closer than the final score would indicate. The job should get a bit easier for the defense this week, facing an offensive line that couldn't generate a running game in last year's debacle of a season. The Cavaliers have a couple of talented WR's, but pass-blocking is going to be a negative. Meanwhile, Indiana should have little trouble throwing downfield against a weak secondary. The Cavaliers have dropped five straight games ATS, while when Indiana gets hot they have stayed so of late, currently on a 5-1 ATS run after throwing for more than 280 yards in their previous game. I'm laying the points with Indiana, our Best Bet KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-02-17 | Kentucky -10.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Big-time revenge for the 'Cats for one of the uglier losses of 2016. Kentucky jumped out to a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to go in the first half, before Southern Miss scored 34 straight points, winning 44-35 as a 3 1/2 point underdog. We remember it well, because we were on Southern Miss. But the Golden Eagles are breaking in a new QB and have seven new starters on defense. Nick Mullens is gone and the Eagles are left with a pair of underwhelming signal callers. So Miss is also replacing three starters on the offensive line, two of which are underclassmen. Two of the seven starters lost on defense included their leading tackler and best pass rusher. Look for a confident and run-heavy Kentucky offense to push So Miss around on Saturday with arguably the best offensive line in the SEC East paving the road. The ground game should lead to strong production from the aerial game behind dual-threat QB Stephen Jonson and a group of talented WR's who'll be tough covers for the So Miss secondary. The 'Cats covered each of their last four road games, while the Golden Eagles are on a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home. I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State +6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Friday night. We certainly like teams playing a second game over one that's playing their first of the season when the programs are relatively close. We saw CSU's offense kick into high gear in the second half of their 58-27 win over Oregon State. They were able to work out first game kinks. Colorado overachieved last season and while the offense has a lot of familiar faces, they do have a new starting QB with Sefo Liufao's departure. Defense is where this team will be hurt the most. CU has to replace one of the best DC's in college football with Jim Leavitt's departure, taking three assistants with him. Making matters even worse, the Buffs have eight new starters to break in. The defense will be tested all night long by the Rams' offensive attack. CSU has been a money-maker, on a 35-17-1 ATS run in their last 53 games. They're on a 14-3 ATS run after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. I expect Colorado State to snap their two-game head to head losing streak, covering at the very least. I'm taking the points with Colorado State, my DogPound on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-02-17 | Auburn +3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -105 | 64 h 27 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Auburn, my Bowl Smash on Monday. The Sooners closed with a blowout win over Oklahoma State, however, Stoops' troops fell short of where they'd hoped to be thanks to ugly losses to Houston & Ohio State. OU enters on a nine-game winning streak, covering the final three. Auburn finished 12 points from a 10-2 season and own the play in the trenches that gives the Sooners' defense fits. Auburn has been a solid bowl entry under Malzahn, losing to Florida State & Wisconsin by identical 34-31 scores, while beating Memphis 31-10 as a 3-point fave last season. Stoops' Sooners have won just five of their last 13 bowls, (4-9 ATS), including 3-5 SU / 2-6 ATS when favored. We'll grab the points with Auburn, our Monday Bowl Smash. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-30-16 | South Alabama +14 v. Air Force | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 2 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with South Alabama, my Bowl GOY. The young Jaguar program is pumped to be here, obviously, and no one expected this year's Jags to go bowling before the season began. In fact, South Alabama won six games, which doubled their preseason projected win total. But they've dropped five straight games ATS and covered just three of 12 games this season. Thanks to perception and typical public betting in games that involve a team like South Alabama, we tend to get value on that team. We believe this is one of those cases. Let's also not forget the Jaguars beat Mississippi State outright to start the season and four of their losses came by one score. South Alabama came pretty close to a nine win season. The Jaguar coaching staff has had a month to prep for the Air Force option offense, a definite advantage. Air Force heads into this one on a 0-5 ATS slide when laying double digits. We saw South Alabama take out another Mountain West entry, beating San Diego State 42-24 as an 18 1/2 point underdog. The Jags scored the game's final 21 points. I expect another strong performance in this one. I'm grabbing the points with South Alabama, my Bowl GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest +11.5 v. Temple | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 18 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Shocker GOM on Tuesday. The Temple Owls were “money” this season AND ARE on a 12-0 ATS run. They won their final seven games of the season SU, including a 34-10 blowout win over favored Navy. But thanks to all the impressive wins and covers, the Owls are now an overvalued bowl team in my opinion and their HC is taking his expertise to Baylor. Wake Forest, meanwhile, sails under the radar here, losing their final three games, while finishing with just six wins all season. And when you consider the schedules, Wake's defensive numbers are nearly as strong as Temple's. I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Top Shocker Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky -6.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Tuesday Bowl Knockout. The Hilltoppers are well known for putting up big bowl numbers after scoring 94 points in their last two postseason appearances. The passing game has flourished the last two years in bowl action and we expect more of the same. WKU scored 44 or more points in each of their final nine games this season, averaging 52.1 ppg along the way. They have passed for 947 yards on 10.9 yards per pass with 8 TDs and just 2 INTs in the last two bowl games, completing 72% of their attempts. The offense ranks 5th in yards passing per game this season and 2nd in ppg, averaging 45.1. I expect another big performance against a Memphis defense that's bad against both the pass and run. The Tigers allowed 42 or more points in four of their last six games. Memphis is on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 15-6 ATS the last 21 times when a total of 63 or higher has been posted. They thrive in an expected shootout, out-scoring the 21 opponents by an average of 49-25. I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Bowl KO on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 141 h 23 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my first Smackdown of the bowl season. Bowl favorites who have not had much point-spread success during the course of the regular season (33% ATS or worse) tend to be undervalued and we believe that's the case with Southern Miss (3-8-1 ATS). These teams are on a 21-6 SU & 20-7 ATS run. We don't base plays solely on situations, but in this type of spot we feel the better team, the fave, is undervalued due in part to perception. We also have a Golden Eagles' team that out-gained 11 of this year's 12 opponents. They own the much better offense in this matchup. Both teams average about 180 yards rushing per game, but UL-L's passing game is non-existent, dragging down their total yards gained per game to 365.9, or 104th in the nation. Southern Miss ranks 23rd through the air, while pass defense is the weakness of the UL-L defense. Another key bowl tool is motivation and in this case it's even. Look for a spread-covering win for the New Orleans Bowl chalk. I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Smackdown release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-03-16 | Baylor v. West Virginia -16.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 143 h 30 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with West Virginia on Saturday, my Main Event. Baylor University went through a lot of tragedy due to the football program's behavior off the field, but the team itself was able to maintain focus while it was winning games. HC Jim Grobe took the interim job as a favor to the administration, but assistants who remained had certainly given 100% of their loyalty to the dismissed Art Briles. The Bears began the season 6-0, but once they took their first loss on October 29, the wheels came off. The team completely lost focus and the coaching staff splintered. No one is recruiting and assistants have been looking for other jobs. Baylor has dropped five straight games SU & ATS, allowing 47.6 ppg during the skid. The closest margin of defeat in their last four games was 19 points as a couple of Big-12 opponents exacted revenge. West Virginia is the final team to take a shot at revenge after losing 62-38 in Waco last season. The Mountaineers are off a 49-19 win in Ames, and while they can't catch Oklahoma for top-spot in the conference, they can reach their 10th win of the season and possibly improve their bowl resume. WVU's 23rd ranked running game and 25th ranked passing game (514.6 total yards per game) ought to have a field day with the "checked-out" Baylor defense. All we need is focus from the Mountaineers and there's no reason to think they won't. As mentioned, Baylor has dropped five in a row ATS. They're also on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road. The season couldn't end fast enough for the Bears and I'm backing West Virginia, minus the points, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-26-16 | Utah +10 v. Colorado | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 43 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Utah Utes, my Pac-12 Knockout Game of the Month. Colorado controls their own destiny and will claim the Pac-12 South with a win in this one. That's a lot of pressure on a team that was as low as it gets just a couple seasons ago. The current five-game winning streak is their longest in 14 years. Utah was eliminated from the division title with a loss to Oregon last week as an 11 point favorite. CFB conference dogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 42-13 ATS run following a SU loss as a double digit favorite. The Utes are just 14 points from an 11-0 record. The ground game should be able to set the tempo for this one and I do believe Joe Williams will find efficient yardage behind his offensive line. I also like the fact they have been true road warriors, posting an 8-0 ATS run on the road against winning teams over the last three seasons. I expect this one to remain close throughout, giving us value on the road team. I'm grabbing the points with Utah, my Pac-12 Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-25-16 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa -22.5 | Top | 37-40 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 42 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Tulsa on Friday night. Not sure we can find two teams headed in an opposite direction as much as these two are. Cincinnati is a mess with a HC on the hottest of seats, while Tulsa's offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Golden Hurricane have won four of their last five games, covering six straight, and they're just a 7-point loss to Houston and a 2-point loss to Navy from a 10-1 SU record. Tulsa has averaged 46 ppg in their last five outings, averaging 566 yards per game on 7 yards per play. HC Philip Montgomery has developed a running attack that's averaged 318 yards per game on 6.1 yards per carry over the last five games, while the passing game has generated 14 TD passes and just 2 INTs. Montgomery was the OC & QB coach at Baylor from 2012 through 2014, so yes, he knows a thing or two about offense. QB Dane Evans needs just 261 yards passing to hit 3,000 yards on the season and Tulsa has not one, but two RBs who have each rushed for more tha 1,200 yards on a combined 6 yards per carry. And if that's not enough, Tulsa is loaded at WR with three players gaining between 635 and 988 yards receiving. This is not good news for a Bearcats' squad that looks to have "checked out." We like to call it our "dead team" list when we reach the second week of November and beyond and Cincy is surely a part of it. UC has scored 13, 3, 3, & 7 points in their last four games, averaging 263 total yards per game on just 4.16 yards per play. That includes 92.5 yards rushing per game on 3.14 per carry. The passing game isn't much better. We also note that if needed, Tulsa should have little trouble distancing themselves from UC in the second half. Tommy Tuberville's troops have been outscored 48-7 in the second half of their last four contests. They're 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and on a 0-6 ATS slide off a home loss. Not only has Tulsa covered six straight, but CFB teams are 23-5 ATS as home chalk of 21.5 to 31 points, provided they average at least 230 yards rushing per game and their opponent averages just 100 to 140 yards rushing per game. Tulsa gains a measure of revenge for last year's loss and builds their resume for the bowl season. I'm laying the points with Tulsa, my CFB Game of the Year. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-19-16 | USC v. UCLA +14 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with UCLA, my Rivalry Game of the Month. Not having Josh Rosen behind center has led to a tough season for the Bruins, who have definitely fallen short of expectations. But while adjustments need to be made by the linesmakers for "missing parts" throughout the course of the season, we feel this line has been adjusted too much. No one disputes USC being the chalk here, but this is a 17.5 point move from where we have the game after two weeks of the regular season. The Bruins also showed signs of life in their 38-24 win over Oregon State last time out, extending their chance of gaining bowl eligibility with two more wins (as if these teams need extra motivation when facing each other). USC is receiving a ton of hype after knocking off Washington in Seattle with some calling the Trojans a legit top-10 football team at the current time. Yes, they have played well with Sam Darnold at QB, but we expect this one to be close to the very end. Under HC Jim Mora, Jr., UCLA is 13-4 ATS against teams playing .600 to .750 football, outscoring those 17 teams by an average of 35-27. Meanwhile, the Trojans have covered just 2 of their last 8 road games, while the Bruins are on a 5-1 ATS series run. The spread has ranged from 2 points to 5 points over the last four meetings and we believe their has been too big of an adjustment in this one. I'm backing UCLA plus the points, my Rivalry GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +3.5 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with West Virginia, my Top Shocker. While OU saved what was looking like a potential rough season, the fact is, the Sooners have not beaten a list of challenging foes. Even the win over Baylor means much less than it would have with Baylor coaches and players alike, seemingly playing out the string ever since they lost their undefeated season a few weeks prior to losing to OU. The Sooners allow 31 ppg and have been horrible against the pass. They're going to face a WVU squad that's different than the typical Big-12 team in that they play a more deliberate brand of offense, and can run and pass effectively. They also are unique to the conference in that they play defense, allowing just 20.6 ppg, the 19th stingiest mark in the nation. Simply put - I believe the better team is getting points and at home. We note Bob Stoops' Sooners have covered just 8 of 25 after winning seven straight games and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide off a cover. I'm grabbing the points with West Virginia, my Top Shocker on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-19-16 | Virginia Tech +1 v. Notre Dame | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 3 m | Show |
I'm backing Virginia Tech, my Knockout on Saturday. The Hokies travel to South Bend off a tough loss to Ga Tech, snapping a 3-game winning streak. Va Tech owns road wins over North Carolina, Pitt, and Duke, and one could argue all three of those teams have had a better season than the Irish, even Duke, who beat Notre Dame under the golden dome earlier this season. Va Tech's defense has been stellar most of the season, one of the top units in college football, while the offense is undervalued. Jerod Evans can get it done with his arm (22-4 TD-INT) or his legs (600+ yards rushing & 6 TDs), while Notre Dame has been shaky both on the ground on offense and stopping the run on defense. The Irish have won just 2 of their last 6 home games SU and we'll back the Hokies. Virginia Tech is our Knockout GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan +2.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan, my MAC Game of the Week on Wednesday. Northern Illinois is used to contending for conference titles and bowl berths, but not this season. In fact, NIU had their bowl hopes dashed with last week's loss to Toledo in their home finale. The Huskies are now just playing out the string. Eastern Michigan is all about the pass on offense, while they're strong against the run on defense. This means they'll attack NIU's weakness on both sides of the line of scrimmage, making the difference in this game. The Huskies enter on a 2-8 ATS slide against teams with a winning record, while the Eagles have covered seven of their last eight games, overall. I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan, my MAC Game of the Week. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-12-16 | LSU v. Arkansas +7 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
I'm grabbing the points with Arkansas on Saturday night. The Razorbacks are playing their final home game tonight and catch LSU at an opportune time, just like they did the last two seasons. The schedule makers have not done LSU any favors, placing Arkansas on their slate, following the Alabama game for the third straight season. Two years ago LSU lost 20-13 to Bama, followed by a 17-0 shutout loss to Arkansas. Last season, Arkansas whipped LSU 31-14 following LSU's 30-16 loss to the Tide. Here we go again. We also have a Tiger squad that just had any dreams of playing for a national title swept out from under their feet. A lot of emotion and even their physical edge went out the window with the loss after leaving everything on the field in last week's loss. Arkansas, meanwhile, showed serious moxie, whipping Florida 31-10, following an embarrassing loss to Auburn. QB Austin Allen played well after a sluggish start, leading the offense. But the bottom line - timing is everything...and timing is certainly on the side of the Hog. LSU has covered just one of their last six road games, while Arkansas is on a 22-8 ATS November run, getting strong down the stretch, and the Hogs have covered four straight meetings. I'm grabbing the points with Arkansas, my SEC Shocker of the Year. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-12-16 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -17 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Oklahoma against a Baylor squad that seems to be looking for the end of the season. The coaching staff is looking for jobs at other locales, no matter what they say. No one is recruiting and the program has hit the skids, emotionally. Baylor has allowed 97 points the last two weeks in losses to Texas & TCU. Three of their last four wins have come against teams who own a combined 3-24 SU record. The fall from grace continues. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma, my Morning Massacre GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-10-16 | Utah -5.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 49-26 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Utah Utes on Thursday night, my KO release. Both teams have had a little extra time to prep for this one, but we don't believe anything will help the permissive Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils have allowed 40 or more points in six of their last eight games, including three straight. ASU continues to blitz on 3rd down plays and has stuck with that plan despite getting burned time-after-time. Utah had won three straight and seven of eight before a tough loss at home to Washington last time out. The Utes took the nation's 4th ranked playoff polls team to the brink before a late punt return for a TD proved to be the difference. Utah is a grand total of 12 points and two games away from a perfect 9-0 start to the campaign. The Utes still have a chance at a Pac-12 title game appearance, but need to win out to start, so the motivation is certainly in place. Utah enters on a 12-3 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. I'm laying the points with the Utah Utes, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-05-16 | Utah State v. Wyoming -4.5 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Wyoming, my Bailout release. Many are expecting a letdown & hangover from the Cowboys after they upset Boise State one week ago. I don't. And with the number dropping from as high as 7, Wyoming is my side. First of all, HC Craig Bohl is used to directing college kids to national titles, having done so at North Dakota State before arriving in Laramie. There are no letdowns in winning multiple national titles and I believe he'll have his troops more than ready. Bohl also only needs to point out what happened in Logan last season when his team was whipped 58-27 by the Aggies. Wyoming is also surging, winners of four in a row SU & ATS. They own the running game to slam USU up front, wearing down the short-handed Aggies throughout the course of this game. USU's offense doesn't run or pass well and they're 101st in the nation in ppg, averaging less than 24 per contest. Meanwhile, the USU defense has serious holes when attempting to defend the run. The Aggies have dropped four of their last five both SU & ATS, scoring just 16.8 ppg against Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State. I expect more of the same in this one. Look for a big game from Wyo RB Brian Hill, who has already rushed for 1,156 yards on the season. Finally, while Utah State is on a 0-5 ATS November slide, the Cowboys are on a 5-0 ATS run in MWC action. I'm laying the points with Wyoming, my Bailout Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-05-16 | Memphis v. SMU +3 | Top | 51-7 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
I'm grabbing the points with SMU, my AAC DogPound Game of the Month. The Mustangs are getting closer and closer to being bowl eligible after a horrible 2-win campaign a season ago. SMU has kicked things into gear for second-year HC Chad Morris, scoring 113 points in their last three games combined. His team is averaging nearly 5 1/2 yards per play and QB Ben Hicks has 7 TD passes and just 2 INTs in those three outings. The Mustang defense has been outstanding of late, holding Tulane to 391 yards after holding the high scoring Houston Cougars to 303 yards on 4.45 yards per play! I expect SMU to have no trouble moving the ball on the ground and through the air against the weak Memphis defense that has allowed 101 points in their last two games, combined. The Tigers are wearing down for the second straight year. Memphis lost four of their last five games last season (including their bowl defeat) allowing 35.5 ppg in the losses. The only win in the five-game stretch came in blowout fashion over these SMU Mustangs. I expect serious payback in this one. I'm taking the points with SMU, my AAC DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-03-16 | Arkansas State -5 v. Georgia State | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Arkansas State on Thursday night. Most know by now how much I enjoy going against teams than can't run the football on offense or stop the run on defense. Georgia State certainly qualifies on both sides of the line of scrimmage, one of the worst teams in both important categories. The problem for the Panthers -- they can't throw the ball either. Meanwhile, Arkansas State still has a shot at a bowl invitation, but they can't afford losses to beatable teams like GSU. The Red Wolves season-long numbers aren't great at the two categories mentioned above, but they have been much better during their current three-game winning streak, gaining strength as the season progresses. ASU has gained an average of 419 yards on 5.74 yards per play in their last three games, rushing for 222 yards per game on 5 yards per carry, while starting QB Justice Hansen has completed 61% of his passes for 7.64 yards per pass with 6 TDs and 3 INTs. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves' defense has held their last three opponents to 319 yards per game, 3.36 yards per carry, and have allowed just 51% passing with 3 INTs and 1 TD pass allowed. ASU is improving as the season progresses, while the same cannot be said for GSU. Arkansas State is on a 34-16-1 ATS conference run and they're 6-1 ATS following their last seven SU wins. Meanwhile, the Panthers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. GSU is also banged-up heading into Thursday's game. I'm laying the points with Arkansas State, my Thursday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-29-16 | Marshall v. Southern Miss -15 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -108 | 40 h 34 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Southern Miss on Saturday night. The Eagles had last weekend off, licking their wounds after back-to-back losses to UTSA & LSU. The loss to LSU was understandable, facing a Tiger team that's finally playing like most thought they would before the season began. This is also USM's chance to snap a five-game, somewhat ugly head-to-head losing streak, not having beaten Marshall since a 41-16 win in 2010. We went against the Thundering Herd last week and cashed as Charlotte, who opened +14 (closed +8.5), beat Marshall outright. Marshall is a major disappointment this season and they're "this close" to being placed into our "dead team" category. They're 119th running the football, averaging just 113 yards per game. Marshall's defense is equally horrible in every important category, including 100th against the pass and 98th defending the run. I expect the Southern Miss offense to find little resistance, while the Eagles' defense slams the door on the struggling Herd offense. Marshall enters on a 0-4 ATS conference slide and they're 1-6-1 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game (the ran for 88 yards last week). We began the season cashing a play on Southern Miss over Kentucky and we'll back them here. I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Conf-USA Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-22-16 | Wyoming -4 v. Nevada | Top | 42-34 | Win | 100 | 103 h 18 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Wyoming Cowboys on Saturday night, my MWC Main Event. Craig Bohl comes from good stock, having both played and coached at Nebraska under Tom Osborne. He also turned North Dakota State into a FCS giant, winning three straight national titles before taking the job in Laramie. Now in his third season at Wyoming, you can see things beginning to click. Wyoming enters Saturday 4-2 on the season as players are buying into Bohl's style. The Cowboys rocked Air Force last time out, holding the nation's 6th-ranked ground game (275.2 yards per game) to 3.8 yards per carry in a 35-26 Wyoming win as a 13 1/2 point underdog. That win followed a 38-17 punishing win at Colo State as a 5 1/2 point dog (we had Wyo). The Cowboys head to Reno with an extra week to prepare and will send their strong running game into battle against Nevada's ultra-weak run defense, ranked 122nd, allowing 251 yards rushing per game. The Wolf Pack defense is coming off four games where they allowed nearly 5 yards per carry to the anemic offenses of Purdue, Hawaii, Fresno State, and San Jose State. Only Hawaii has a ground game ranked better than 82nd of that group. Offensively, the Pack scored a grand total of 68 points against those same teams, an average of just 17 ppg. We point out the defenses in those four contests rank from 105th to 122nd in points allowed per game. The Pack are just 65th running the football, but that's by far the best thing about their offense. The problem for Nevada is that Wyoming's defense is at their best against the run. One more note: The Pack ground game gained just 113 yards on 3.3 yards per carry against SJSU last week, the nation's 113th ranked run defense. You get the picture. With a week off to prep, we expect the Wyoming surge under Craig Bohl to continue in an upward direction. Finally, Wyoming is on a 7-1 ATS run in October football, while the Pack are on a 4-game ATS losing streak. I'm laying the points with Wyoming, my MWC Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-15-16 | Alabama -13 v. Tennessee | Top | 49-10 | Win | 100 | 71 h 35 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon. Alabama has won four straight at Tennessee, doing so by scores of 34-20, 44-13, 41-10, and 29-9. Saban will have no trouble getting his team's focus for another trip to the Volunteer State after a close, 19-14 win at home a season ago. The Tide are also "catching" Tennessee at the right time. The Vols are off five close calls in their first six games. Even the win over Ohio U. was a 2-point game in the fourth quarter before the Vols won 28-19. UT's 45-24 win over Va Tech is misleading when you consider Tennessee trailed 14-0 and had been outgained 193-6 until the Hokies lost the handle on the ball, losing five fumbles. Tennessee is allowing 34.7 ppg in SEC play this season. The defense is a mess with injuries and they were already ranked 86th against the pass. We note that Tennessee enters on a 2-10 ATS slide at home after allowing 31 or more points in back-to-back games. Offensively, Alabama should have little trouble flexing their muscle throughout this one, including wearing down the depleted Vols' defense over the final two quarters. Jalen Hurts is averaging over 250 total yards per game and RB Damien Harris is familiar with topping 100 yards on the ground. The Tide are balanced on offense and average nearly 45 ppg. Last week against Arkansas, Alabama rushed for 264 yards on 7.8 yards per carry...a solid warm-up for this week's game. Defensively, the Tide are as stingy as ever, allowing less than 16 ppg and Tennessee has covered just 6 of their last 25 at home against teams that allow no more than 17 ppg. Bama will face a Tennessee offense averaging nearly 3 turnovers per game, an important note because CFB road teams are on a 53-21 ATS run against home teams that average at least 2.5 tpg, provided they're off a game where they committed at least four turnovers. The Tide enter on a 9-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 6-1 ATS run at Tennessee. Finally, Alabama is on a 6-0 ATS run on the road against defenses that allow at least 58% passing, winning those six games by an average score of 38-14! I'm laying the points with Alabama over a worn-out Tennessee team, my SEC Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-08-16 | Washington State v. Stanford -7 | Top | 42-16 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Stanford on Saturday night. We played on Washington and against Stanford last weekend and cashed an easy one, but we saw that coming in our handicap and it came to fruition. A lot of folks are now bailing on David Shaw's Cardinal, but not us. Stanford has been "money" off a SU loss, going 9-1 ATS the last 10 times. They're also on a 13-3 ATS winning run after being held to less than 20 points. When David Shaw teams slip-up, they have refocused in a hurry. We expect nothing less in this one. The Cougar defense ought to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Christian McCaffrey and company to get right back on track after a couple of tough outings. Washington State's run defense numbers are a little fraudulent because everyone passes the heck out of the Cougar secondary. I don't believe Stanford QB Ryan Burns will face the kind of heat he felt against Washington. And while his numbers are not spectacular, Burns has been efficient in 2016 and he may be primed for his best outing of the season against the nation's 112th-ranked pass defense. Stanford has won eight straight in this series and won 34-17 "on the farm" last time here in 2014. I expect more of the same in this one. Wazzu allowed 45, 31, and 33 points to EWU, Boise, and Oregon. I expect Stanford to be too much for them in this one. I'm laying the points with Stanford, my Bailout Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-01-16 | Utah v. California UNDER 65.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing the Under between Utah & California on Saturday. We played against Cal last week and cashed a wild one with Arizona State. The teams were playing a "normal" brand of football through three quarters before they combined for 55 points in the fourth. It wasn't just a case of offense and bad defense, with turnovers and special teams playing a big part. But I expect the defense of Utah to dictate the pace in this one. The Utes rank 28th against the pass and 23rd in overall defense. Utah's offense will also provide a more traditional attack, again, helping them control the tempo and keeping the Cal offense on the sideline a little more than normal. Despite all the craziness, the Bears enter on a 9-3 Under run in Pac-12 play, while the Utes are on a 21-6 Under run off a Pac-12 win by no more than seven points. The average total in Utah's four games this season is 46.25 and this one is nearly 20 points higher. Last year's meeting saw 54 combined points scored. I expect more of the same. I'm playing the Under between Utah & Cal, my Total Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-01-16 | Akron v. Kent State +7.5 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Kent State on Saturday afternoon. Greg Bollas is expected to get the start at QB for the Flashes on Saturday and that's fine by us. Bollas runs well from the signal-caller position and the Kent offense will face one of their easier tasks so far this season, taking on an Akron defense that ranks 126th against the pass, 123rd in total yards allowed, and gives up 40 ppg. And oh by the way, their best stat (run defense) ranks 95th in the nation. One of the problems for the Zips as the season progresses is going to be a defense that spends too much time on the field. Akron opponents are averaging roughly 37 minutes of possession time per game against the Zips and even VMI held onto the football for more than 36 minutes. Kent State should be able to take full advantage and has already faced Penn State & Alabama on the road as they toughened-up before MAC action. The Flashes have been strong against the pass this season, which helps against the Zips, who are one-dimensional, able to pass, but ranked 107th in yards rushing per contest. Akron is just 1-9 ATS following a game where they and their opponent combined for 80 or more points, while the home team in this series is on an 8-3 ATS run. Revenge will be on the agenda for the Golden Flashes and I'm taking the points with Kent State, my DogPound play on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 117 h 60 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Washington on Friday night. The Huskies struggled to an OT win over Arizona last week, with a little look-ahead to this week's home game with Stanford. Washington gained 512 yards and ran for 6.9 yards per carry, but they couldn't shake the Wildcats, due in part to turnovers. Washington turned it over on downs at the Wildcats' 28, QB Jake Browning threw an INT at the Arizona one-yard line, and the Huskies suffered a missed FGA, leaving a potential of 17 points off the scoreboard. We note that despite the INT, Browning is connecting on 70.5% of his passes, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, with 14 TD passes and just 2 INTs. The defense will need to shore-up some issues from the weekend in Arizona, but still ranks 22nd in yards passing allowed per game and 26th in total yards allowed per game. We believe the "U-Dub" stop-unit is for real and will prove it on Friday. Stanford was quite fortunate to beat UCLA over the weekend. The Cardinal trailed 13-9 before scoring a go-ahead TD with :24 left in the game. They then added a 58-yard fumble return for a TD with :04 left, for a miracle cover. Stanford is still struggling in the passing game, where they rank 122nd in the nation, and they're 109th in total yards per game. Meanwhile, they're 77th defending the pass. Washington owns the defense to stop the one-dimensional Cardinal offense. I'm laying the points with Washington, my Friday night Smash Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-24-16 | California v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 140 h 21 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Arizona State on Saturday night (9/24). ASU will look to exact revenge for last year's last-second loss at Cal. The Sun Devils led the game by as many as 17 points and looked in control at least twice in the second half. But the Cal Bears, led by current rookie-NFL QB Jared Goff put PK Matt Anderson in place for a 26-yard, game-winning field goal as time ran out in the fourth quarter, for a 48-46 Cal win. The QBs are different for both teams in this one and I expect Sun Devils' signal caller Manny Wilkins to be the difference. Wilkins has connected on 66% of his passes, while averaging 8.4 yards per pass on the season, but he also beats teams with his legs, rushing for 191 yards on nearly 6 yards per carry. The ASU offense has posted 144 points in three games, showing fantastic balance, averaging 265 yards passing and 260 yards rushing per contest. ASU is off a mistake-filled win over UTSA, outgaining the Roadrunners 469-322, but allowing UTSA to hang around thanks to a minus-3 turnover ratio. Cal is off back-to-back barn-burners, beating Texas 50-43 after a 45-40 loss to San Diego State. The Bears' defense has been torched for 504.3 yards per game (118th in NCAA). Meanwhile, the offense, unlike ASU, is one-dimensional, ranked second through the air, but 106th on the ground. ASU has covered five straight home games and they're 9-2 ATS under HC Graham against teams allowing at least 425 yards per game. ASU averaged 47 ppg in those 11 contests. I'm laying the points with Arizona State, my Knockout on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-17-16 | Troy v. Southern Miss -10 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 22 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Southern Miss on Saturday. This marks the second time in three weeks we'll have backed the boys from Hattiesburg. We had them in week-one and cashed when they not only covered at Kentucky, but won outright, 44-35. The Golden Eagles probably would have won by a bigger margin if not for a lot of unforced miscues in the first half. But they came from behind and showed everyone why we backed them. Southern Miss heads into Saturday with a chance at a 3-0 start and we feel they'll pull away from Troy after intermission. Troy gave it their all and almost shocked the college football world with their near miss against a Clemson team that obviously had overlooked the Trojans. That game itself, will help So. Miss. HC Jay Hopson keep his squad focused throughout. QB Nick Mullens is back and leads the best offensive backfield in Conference-USA. Hopson is able to focus on the defense, thanks to offensive-minded assistants. So. Miss. averaged nearly 7 yards per play and almost 40 ppg last season. Even with a few new faces, including a pair of new starters at OT, the Golden Eagles' offense has not missed a beat in 2016. Southern Miss is 5-0-1 in their last six September games and they're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-10-16 | Tulsa +29 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
I'm grabbing the points with (#333) Tulsa on Saturday afternoon. I expect Ohio State to score their share of points in this one, but the young an inexperienced Buckeye defense, with only three returning starters, should be hard-pressed to hold Tulsa's offense in-check. The Golden Hurricane crushed SJSU 45-10 last week as a short favorite, outgaining the Spartans 512 to 287. While this is a big step up in class (obviously) the Tulsa offense is for real. Tulsa is led by Phillip Montgomery, the former OC at Baylor. Seven starters return to an offense that averaged 37 ppg last season, including QB Dane Evans, and excellent skill personnel, despite losing their top receiver. So again, I do expect OSU to score quite a few points. But I also expect a decent amount from Tulsa, leading to the cover. The undervalued Golden Hurricane are on a 10-1 ATS run on the road and catch Ohio State in a potential look-ahead with a game at Oklahoma up next for the Buckeyes. Finally, road dogs of more than 21 points are on a 34-10 ATS run if they outgained their opponent by at least 225 yards in their previous game. We're grabbing the points with Tulsa, our Non-Conf Shocker of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | Top | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night. As we saw last week, nothing wrong with the Louisville offense and QB Lamar Jackson, who was a terrific value at 100:1 to win the Heisman just a couple months ago. But it's not just about Jackson. The Cardinals are loaded at the skill positions, including RB and an outstanding WR corps. Syracuse will be hard-pressed to hold this squad in check. At the same time, I expect the Orange to put up their share of points sending this game over the posted total. Syracuse has eight starters back on offense from last season. HC Dino Babers operates an uptempo passing attack, but again, the Cardinals' offense should find holes in the Syracuse Tampa-2 defense. We should note that the Over is 41-13 when the total is 63 or higher, and at least one team (Syracuse) allowed at least a 58% completion rate the season before and held their most recent opponent to no more than 5 1/2 yards per attempt. And while Louisville is on a 5-1 Over run, the, the Orange have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 13 games. More of the same. I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night, my OU Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-03-16 | LSU -10 v. Wisconsin | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -101 | 85 h 8 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with LSU on Saturday. First things first -- Leonard Fournette is expected to play and according to Les Miles, he won't be limited due to an ankle injury suffered earlier. Fournette will operate behind an offensive line with three returning starters and plenty of tested depth. The key to LSU's chances at a CFB final four appearance will be the passing game. I expect to see more from Brandon Harris this season, beginning with this game, against a beatable and somewhat young Wisconsin secondary. The Badgers' defense was no match for another SEC opponent to begin last season, when Alabama not only beat Wiscy 35-17, but gained 6.4 yards per carry, while outgaining the Baders 502 to 268, overall. Gone from Wiscy's offense are QB Joel Stave and the team's leading WR. Corey Clement is back from injury at RB and while the offensive line returns four starters, I expect the Badger offense to struggle against the LSU 3-4 defense. New LSU DC and former Wisconsin DC, Dave Aranda inherits a ton of physical and speedy talent with the Tiger defense. I believe they'll stuff the run, putting pressure on the Wisconsin so-so passing game, and cruise to the win and cover. Finally, teams that averaged at least 200 yards rushing the previous season are on a 42-12 ATS run in games one through four of the current season, provided they return at least four starters and their QB and the opponent is breaking in a new starter at QB. I'm laying the points with LSU, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-02-16 | TCU v. Oregon -7 | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Oregon on Saturday. We liked the Ducks at +1 when Boykin was expected to start for TCU. Even though the line is now as high as it is, with Boykin's absence, we still side with the Ducks as a play. TCU will rely on senior QB Bram Kolhausen or freshman QB Forest Sawyer. The two have combined for a grand total of 69 pass attempts this season, completing just 37, with 5 TD passes and 4 INTs. That's in comparison to Boykin's 31 TDs, 10 INTs, and 65% completion rate. There's obviously no way to make-up for Boykin's running ability nor his know-how. Another issue, neither QB will have the team's top receiver to throw to with Josh Doctson ruled out of the game (wrist). He nearly doubled the amount of receptions over TCU's second best receiver and more than doubled the next receiver's yardage. Aaron Greene has had a strong season running the football for the Horned Frogs, but he's thrust into the role of the main "player" at this point for TCU, taking on a different role than he's used to. I expect Oregon to pull away in this one with TCU's inability to "keep up." TCU has covered just one of its last six bowls, while the Ducks enter on a 4-1 ATS bowl run. I'm laying the points with the Oregon Ducks, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee v. Northwestern +8.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Northwestern on Friday. By now, those who have followed me know how much I like to back bowl teams that can run the football and stop the run. Northwestern does both incredibly well, averaging 193.2 yards rushing per game. Tennessee ranks 20th on the ground. But Northwestern stops the run (and the pass) like few others. The Wildcats rank 13th against the run, 26th defending the pass, and 11th in the nation overall, allowing just 310.5 yards per game. The Vols, meanwhile, are a little better than middle of the pack against both the run and pass. Northwestern won their first five games of the season and their final five games, losing to Michigan & Iowa in the middle. In fact, the Wildcats went 6-2 SU against bowl teams this season, including a 16-6 win over Stanford and a 13-7 road win at Wisconsin. The defense slammed the door over the final four games of the season, holding the opposition to 14 ppg. Tennessee didn't exactly look bowl bound with a 3-4 SU record through their first seven games. They won their final five games though, but none of the five wins came against teams playing in the postseason. The Vols played just six bowl teams this season, losing four. The passing game will be needed against the Wildcat defense and Tennessee would rather hand the ball off to Jalen Heard. After all, the passing game ranks 94th in the nation. Northwestern isn't likely to pile-up passing yardage either, but I do expect the offense to find more success than Tennessee's, based in part on the Wildcats' edge on the defensive side of the football. And besides their current 4-1 ATS run, the 'Cats are 46-27 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. I'm grabbing the points with Northwestern, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Wisconsin on Wednesday night. Despite less than typical Wisconsin-like offensive numbers this season, the Badgers still finished 9-3 SU, with three losses coming against Alabama, Iowa, and Northwestern. The Tide are in the running for a possible national title, the Hawkeyes missed a spot in the CFB playoffs by one game, and the Wildcats are a sturdy 10-2 and playing in a New Year's Day bowl game. The three teams own a combined record of 34-4 SU. The Badger defense is nasty, stingy, and fierce, and I expect the unit to cause problems for the USC offense. Wisconsin ranks #4 against the run, allowing just 98 yards rushing per game. They're 6th against the pass, 3rd in total yards allowed per game (267.1), and #1 in scoring defense allowing just 13.1 ppg. USC QB Cody Kessler (thumb) is expected to play and he does possess future NFL weaponry at WR to throw to. But with the way Wisconsin has played on defense, I do believe the Badgers will throw a wrench into the USC attack. And let's not forget the Trojans lost five games this season, including two of their last three, while averaging less than 25 ppg in the losses. The USC defense has been a mess most of the season, ranked 96th against the pass, while also allowing over 400 total yards per game. They were scorched for 41 points or more on four occasions this season. USC allowed nearly 5 yards per carry over their last three games and saw their last six opponents complete 123 of 175, a whopping 70.3% of their passes, with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs. It's no wonder Clay Helton canned DC Justin Wilcox and three other assistants after the final game of the season. Look for Wisconsin to take full advantage. I'm taking the points with Wisconsin, my Wednesday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-26-15 | Southern Miss v. Washington -8.5 | Top | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 104 h 10 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Washington on Saturday. Great season for Southern Miss, but we went against them in their finale and cashed when the Eagles lost 45-28 to Western Kentucky. And we say now what we said then, Southern Miss has beaten just one team that currently owns a .500 record or better. The win came against La Tech. Southern Miss won 58-24, but the final score was misleading. The Eagles led 24-17 well into the third quarter, but eventually took advantage of no less than seven La Tech turnovers. Before the 17-point loss to WKU, and before the game with La Tech, Southern Miss played just two other teams with a winning record, losing 34-16 to Mississippi State and 31-10 to Marshall. That 13 ppg average was a far cry from the 47 ppg they scored against their other 10 opponents (before WKU). And high powered Southern Miss averaged just 4.92 yards per play, 3.2 yards per run, and 6.13 yards per pass with two TD passes and three INTs. Those were a few of the reasons we backed WKU a few weeks ago and are some of the same reasons we'll back Washington in this one. The Huskies scored a coaching coup when Chris Peterson agreed to sign-on, and this is one coach we know will have his team focused. Washington is 6-6 SU, but just 15 points from a 9-3 mark. And they won their final two games with ease, outscoring Oregon State & Washington State, 97-17. The defense is the best in the Pac-12 and will be a serious step-up in level of competition for Southern Miss. RB Myles Gaskin leads the U-W offense and I expect the offensive line to provide plenty of room, eventually opening up lanes in the passing game. We should note that teams off of back-to-back wins by 28 or more points are on a 60-23 ATS run, provided their opponent allowed more than 36 ppg in their previous contest. And Washington is on an 8-1 ATS run as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, outscoring those nine opponents by 22 ppg. I'm laying the points with Washington, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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12-05-15 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 29 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Michigan State on Saturday. While we respect the undefeated season the Iowa Hawkeyes have put together, the fact is, they have benefited from a soft slate in 2015. They've had close calls, escaping Pitt, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota, and would have likely lost last week's game to Nebraska if not for a Tommy Armstrong meltdown. The Husker QB looked like Iowa's best player on Saturday, tossing four INTs, and they weren't exactly of the forced variety, simply horrible decision making. Nebraska out-gained Iowa 433-250, holding the Hawkeyes to 97 yards passing and 11 first downs. Michigan State did not get so lucky in Lincoln, falling 39-38 in their only loss of the season. However, with two minutes to go in the game, the Spartans led 38-26. Michigan State is 15th in the nation against the run and 27th in total yards allowed per game. But Michigan State has proven themselves ever since. And if Iowa can't run, they're done. The Hawkeyes are 92nd in the nation passing the football. That's exactly what I expect to happen -- MSU clamps down on Jordan Canzeri and company, and it's game over. MSU is on an 18-7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 6-0 ATS run at neutral sites. I'm laying the points with Michigan State, my Championship Tapout GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-28-15 | Colorado State -10 v. Fresno State | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Colorado State on Saturday night. The Rams have actually played to a better record on the road (3-1) this season than they have at home (3-4). They're also better than their record overall, two OT losses away from an 8-3 mark (Colorado & Minnesota). Tonight, the Rams have a chance to close the season with their fourth straight win and a 7-5 mark. CSU will face statistically, one of the worst teams in college football when they take on Fresno State. The Bulldogs have endured a horrible season with their only wins coming against Hawaii, UNLV, and Abiline Christian. Fresno ranks 108th or worse in rushing yards and passing yards per game, total yards per game, and average points scored. The defense isn't much better, giving up 38.5 ppg, while ranked 118th defending the run and 110th in total yards allowed per contest. What we need from CSU is a focused effort, and with revenge on their mind, I expect nothing less. Two of the Rams' top three RBs are now listed as probable, an upgrade from earlier in the week. And the Nick Stevens - Rashad Higgins passing/receiving combo ought to flourish against the Bulldog defense. Fresno is on a 2-8 ATS slide, including 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-1 ATS November run. I'm laying the points with Colorado State, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-27-15 | Missouri v. Arkansas -14 | Top | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Friday afternoon. Mizzou has brought it emotionally ever since HC Gary Pinkel announced his retirement. But the team just doesn't have the offensive talent to back it up and emotion at the end of the season affords a team one to two good quarters when the talent can't back it up. That's the case for the Tigers who rank 111th through the air, 118th on the ground, 126th in total yards per game, and average a measly 14.5 ppg. Mizzou barely has more offensive TDs than games played in 2015. Nothing wrong with the Arkansas offense that caught fire on October 24 and has not looked back. The Razorbacks averaged 50.2 ppg in their last five games. And while Mizzou's defense has played well all season, they won't be able to hold up to Brandon Allen (29 TD pass; 6 INTs) and the running of Alex Collins (1,262 yards rushing & 14 TDs). I expect Arkansas to wear out the Tigers and pull away from Missouri in the second half. The Razorbacks enter on a 12-2 ATS run against teams averaging no more than 310 yards per game, winning by an average score of 40-13. They've covered five of their last six conference games and I'm backing them here. I'm laying the points with Arkansas, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-24-15 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -13 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Northern Illinois on Tuesday. Ohio is bowl eligible, winning two straight games after dropping three in a row. The Bobcats are 7-4 on the season, but the competition gets much tougher after their last two games came against softies. Ohio allowed 49, 41, and 62 points to Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Bowling Green, respectively, during the losing streak. Tuesday's opponent, the NIU Huskies enter having won six straight games, going 5-0-1 ATS, and scoring an average of 42 ppg. They're about as balanced as it gets, averaging just over 226 yards on the ground, while passing for 225 yards per contest. And while they haven't been doing as much through the air since Ryan Graham took over for the injured Drew Hare, the Huskies have still averaged 485 yards per game in his two starts, including 311.5 yards per game on the ground at 5.66 yards per carry. And Graham can run the football. Ohio has faced two of the five MAC teams with conference records of 5-2 or better, allowing a total of 1,148 yards on 8.63 yards per play to Bowling Green & Western Michigan. I expect more troubles for the Ohio defense against the 6-1 (MAC record) NIU Huskies. Besides their 5-0-1 ATS run, the Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are on a 0-7 ATS slide over the last three seasons against teams that average at least 31 ppg, losing by an average score of 39-14. The matchup advantages are what counts the most, of course, but the situations are the icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with Northern Illinois, my Tuesday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-21-15 | Memphis v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
I'm backing the Temple Owls on Saturday. I went against the Owls last week and cashed with South Florida. The Owls were in a horrible spot and played like it. I went against Memphis two weeks ago and we cashed when Navy whipped the Tigers 45-20. Last week, Memphis suffered their second straight defeat, losing 35-34 to Houston. The final score doesn't tell the story. Memphis led 20-0 in the second quarter; 20-7 at halftime; and led by 20 again in the fourth, up 34-14 before a major collapse. The Tigers' season long goal of an undefeated season and more importantly for them, a spot in the AAC championship game are out the window. But Temple's potential spot in the title game is in their hands...they control their own destiny. Temple is on an 11-4 ATS run and before the flat spot against USF, had allowed just 132 yards per game on the ground. The Owls other loss came to Notre Dame, a 24-20 defeat. Temple led 20-17 with less than three minutes to go in the game. They have fared well against Memphis-type teams, currently on an 8-1 ATS run against teams connecting on 62% of more of their passes. They're also on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that average at least 10 more points per game than they allow. And they own the offense to control the pace of this one just like in last year's meeting that saw a combined 29 points on the scoreboard. But this time, Temple wins in my opinion. This is not likely to be the type of affair Memphis wants. We have also heard Memphis players and coaches publicly wondering how they're going to react to back-to-back losses, especially off of last week's heartbreaker. I do believe the Tiger defense has been worn down and we have seen it the last two weeks, getting outscored by a combined 56-24 in the second half. Memphis allowed Navy 374 yards rushing on 5.7 yards per carry and have allowed 35 or more points on five occasions this season. They'll enter this one on a 3-12-1 ATS slide on natural grass. It's the toughest situation I have seen for a winning team in 2015 and that team is facing a very good team with a season long goal still in hand. I'm backing the Temple Owls, my 2015 GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-14-15 | Oregon v. Stanford -10 | Top | 38-36 | Loss | -104 | 64 h 12 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday. I've read a lot of articles praising the Oregon offense of late, stating that QB Vernon Adams and the Ducks' offense have found their rhythm. I'm more of the opinion the Ducks' offense found a couple of horrible defenses. Oregon beat a disappointing Arizona State team that can't cover the pass and they beat Cal, losers of four straight and owners of a defense that can't stop the pass or the run. This will not be the case this week. Stanford is the most physical team Oregon will have faced this season on both sides of the football. And the Cardinal own the type of offense to control the all-important tempo. McCaffrey and company should have little trouble against an Oregon defense that's one of the worst in the nation against the pass, and not so hot defending the run. I'm just not buying the recent Oregon "surge." I am buying Stanford as a Final Four contender, but they can't slip-up and I don't believe they will in this one. The Cardinal are on a 30-3 SU run at home, covering 61% of those games. They're also a momentum team under HC David Shaw, entering on a 13-3 ATS run after scoring at least 42 points in their previous game. Stanford's average score in those 16 contests: 39-19. And finally, you're 31-10 ATS going against road dogs of more than 3 points, but less than 10.5 points, provided they're off back-to-back conference wins and their opponent is off a double digit road win. The matchups are what matter to me the most, but the situations provide icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with Stanford, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-14-15 | Miami (Fla) v. North Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-59 | Win | 100 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. Miami still has a shot to top their division in the ACC by the end of the year, but by numbers only. The fact is, the Hurricanes have not looked impressive for most of the season. Miami is just a handful of plays from a 3-6 record, having eked-out wins over Nebraska, Duke (officials mistake), and Virginia. They're a phony 6-3 in my book. There's nothing phony about the Tar Heels. UNC owns one of the best pass defenses in college football, and they're balanced on offense, ranked 25th through the air and 32nd on the ground, while averaging 40 ppg. They also own big play arsenal to boot. The Heels are 6-0 SU in Chapel Hill this season, outscoring their "guests" by an average of 47-17! In fact, their closest margin of victory in six home games was 13 points. UNC is also in revenge for a painful 27-point loss in Miami a season ago. I won't be shocked to see a similar score in this one, but this time, the Heels come out on top. UNC enters on a 21-6 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, Miami is on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams that average at least 250 yards passing per game. I'm laying the points with North Carolina, my Main Event on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-11-15 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 | Top | 41-27 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Western Michigan on Wednesday. MAC East & MAC West leaders doing battle tonight and the Broncos will look to continue their domination of the rival from the East. WMU has won four straight meetings, although all but one came before 2012. But the Broncos did take care of business on the road last year with a 26-14 win. There's a lot of talk regarding BG's high scoring offense, but WMU is no chopped liver. The Broncos have won five straight games, doing so by an average final score of 47.4 to 20.2. And Bowling Green's defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially against the pass, where they rank 108th in the nation. Good luck slowing down a balanced Bronco offense that ranks 28th on the ground and 29th through the air. WMU is also a better team at home than they are on the road, and they're 6-0 ATS off a home win with Fleck as coach. They're also 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually averaging more points than they allow...again, as a dog. Bowling Green allows opponents to complete 60% of their passes and WMU has torn up defenses that allow 58% or higher, going 9-1 ATS the last two seasons, scoring an average of 41 ppg. I'm betting the Broncos will continue their dominance of the Falcons in their final home game of the season. My Knockout release is Western Michigan plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-07-15 | LSU v. Alabama -6 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 41 h 28 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Alabama on Saturday night. LSU has one meaningful win this season, a 35-28 victory over Florida. The Tigers ran extremely well in that contest and that's the problem for LSU this weekend. They're one dimensional, unable to throw the football where they rank 117th in the nation. Teams that give the Tide trouble are able to pass and run and have a mobile QB, who's capable of calling his own number a dozen times per game. Brandon Harris is no stiff, but he's not the kind of signal caller who disrupts the Tide's stellar defensive front. Bama's defense is nasty good and will aim to slow down Leonard Fournette, putting the onus of the offense on Harris' shoulders. And let's remember in their lone loss this season, Alabama actually gained over 500 yards on Ole Miss, but a minus-5 turnover ratio cost them in a six point loss. LSU is a good team. They're a top-10 team. But they have matchup and game-style issues against Nick Saban's troops. LSU enters on a 1-9 ATS slide on the road after gaining at least 7.25 yards per play in their previous game. And under Saban, the Tide are 23-10 ATS off a SU win where they failed to cover the spread. Bama outscored those 33 opponents by an average of 38-14. Finally, the Tide are on 4-0 SU / 3-1 ATS runs in this series, outscoring the Tigers by a combined 100-47, an average final of 25-12. I expect another win and cover in this one. I'm laying the points with Alabama, my Tapout Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-07-15 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 60 h 41 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with MTSU on Saturday afternoon. How is a 3-5 team favored by a FG over an 8-1 team? Well, here are a few reasons. MTSU may be under .500, but check out the strength of schedule of these two teams. While Marhsall has played some softies to build that misleading record, MTSU has taken on a road schedule that's included games at La Tech (4-0 home), Western Kentucky (3-0 home), Big-10 entry Illinois (4-1 home), and an Alabama team that's not only a national title contender, but also 4-1 on their home turf. Marshall is also banged-up on offense with several contributors listed as questionable or out; injuries accumulated over the last two weeks of football. More on that in a bit. The Blue Raiders are strong against the run and offensively, they not only average nearly 35 ppg, but they can sling the pigskin, averaging 309 yards passing per contest. And remember, those yards and points have been piled-up despite the schedule mentioned above. Brent Stockstill is connecting on 67% of his passes with 18 TD passes and six INTs. Four of the INTs were thrown against the tough road slate and he has 10 TDs and just two picks at home. Richie James and Ed'Marques Batties have both already topped 60 receptions on the season. Marshall will attempt to win this one with their defense, but their offense will fail them in my opinion. Despite playing against a soft schedule, the offense has been a tad pedestrian. Their offense line is banged-up and RB Devon Johnson, who has run for 2,322 yards on 8.01 yards per carry & 22 TDs since the start of the 2014 season, is out with a back injury. Those are just a few of the reasons Marshall is a dog to a 3-5 MTSU squad. I'm laying the points with MTSU, my Shocker on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-31-15 | Western Kentucky -24 v. Old Dominion | Top | 55-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky on Saturday. The Hilltoppers have played extremely well, losing just twice this season. The 38-35 loss to Indiana could have gone either way, and in fact, if not for a 91-yard Hoosier punt return for a TD, WKU may have knocked off the Big-10 opponent. Last week, they were out-classed against LSU, yet trailed by just seven points with six minutes to go in the third quarter before the difference in pedigree came through. WKU gained 428 yards, while holding the Tigers to 497. Not a bad effort playing against one of the nation's best. This week, they're back to the level they can handle, and should dominate for the entire four quarters. The Hilltoppers own the nation's 4th ranked passing offense and face the nation's 94th ranked defense. ODU isn't too hot on offense either, unable to pass the football (104th) with a mediocre ground game. Last season, WKU won 66-51. The Monarchs won't likely be able to "keep up" with their lack of offensive threats in this meeting and the defense has allowed 34 or more points in five of their six games against FBS opposition. ODU lost 41-12 to FIU last week and enters on a 0-10 ATS slide off a SU loss. They have dropped all seven games ATS this season. I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Main Event on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-30-15 | Wyoming v. Utah State -27 | Top | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Utah State on Friday night. It's been a disaster of a season for the Wyoming Cowboys with just one SU win to show for themselves. The offense is putrid and the defense can't stop the run. Making matters worse on offense, the Cowboys have likely lost another QB, at least for this week due to the injury to Cameron Coffman. So, it looks as though Nick Smith will get the start. Smith has completed just 7 of 21 passes this season, averaging just 2.5 yards per attempt. USU plays a stingy brand of defense and should have little trouble. The Aggies were roughed-up at San Diego State last week, not unexpected after their big 52-26 win over Boise State the week prior. But they're back home off the loss and at 4-3, they could use a win to continue to further their drive to a bowl qualification. With road games at New Mexico and Air Force following this one, plus a game with BYU to close the season, a win here is very important and I expect Matt Wells to have his team focused on the task at hand. USU is too diverse for Wyoming and for the first time in weeks, the Cowboys will have an opponents' full attention for an entire game. The Aggies are on a 13-3 ATS run after allowing an opponent to score at least 40 points. They're on a 6-0 ATS run off a spread loss and have covered four straight meetings with the Cowboys. I'm laying the points with Utah State, my Friday night TKO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-24-15 | Auburn v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 38 h 1 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Saturday. The Razorbacks have dropped four of their last five games, but could have won three with a play or two going another direction. Arkansas, obviously, could have beaten Toledo, losing 16-12. They lost to Texas Tech after trailing by just four points in the fourth, and lost in OT to Texas A&M. Even in last week's 27-14 loss to Alabama, the defense played well, holding the Tide to less than 3 yards per carry. The Hogs rank 15th against the run and have held five of their opponents to their lowest yardage output of their season. Auburn offers little up top, ranked 111th in the passing game and it's not like they're super at running the ball, averaging just 183.7 (50th in NCAAF). Auburn has played a lot of close games, but have managed to pull off fortunate wins. Even their 35-21 win over San Jose State wasn't pretty, leading by only seven points in the fourth quarter and getting out-gained 406-342 by the Spartans. This is a solid spot for Bret Bielema's troops to take out some frustrations and I believe they will. And while Auburn enters on a 3-14 ATS slide overall, the Razorbacks are on a 13-3 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. Last year, the game was tied at 21 in the third before Arkansas fell apart and Auburn kicked it into gear, en route to a 45-21 Tigers' win. I expect Arkansas to win and cover in this one. I'm laying the points with Arkansas, my Tapout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-22-15 | California v. UCLA -3 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with UCLA on Thursday night. Cal is a popular play in this matchup, at least in Vegas circles, but we're going the other direction. The Bruins own a top shelf pass defense, ranked in the top-20 in the nation. Cal is mediocre at best running the football, but they want to air it out, anyway. The problem is, the Bruins own matchup advantages with a talented and athletic secondary that'll be looking to atone for the Stanford debacle. And tonight marks the first time this season Cal's offense will face a team ranked in the top-40 defending the pass. In fact, it's only the second time (San Diego State) that they have faced a top-50 pass defense. And we saw what can happen when Jared Goff feels the pressure from an opposing defense, throwing five interceptions against Utah. UCLA is coming off back-to-back losses, the third year in a row they have done so in October. And like the last two times, I expect a bounce back. Cal's defense has not exactly faced a murderer's row of offensive teams, yet they can be had through the air and on the ground. The Bears have allowed 24.5 ppg against a schedule that includes games against Grambling, San Diego State (114th total yards per game), Texas (108th), Washington (101st), Washington State (126th yards rushing rushing per game), and Utah (70th total yards). UCLA owns the most talented offensive unit Cal will have faced, averaging 266 yards passing and 196 yards rushing per contest. The Bruins rank 25th overall, and average nearly 35 ppg. And with a win, UCLA will still be in the Pac-12 South hunt. The Bruins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games against Cal, while the Bears have covered just eight of their last 32 off a SU loss. I expect the Bruins to bounce back with the win and cover. I'm laying the points with UCLA, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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