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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-13 | Auburn +13 v. Texas A&M | 45-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 38 m | Show | |
Auburn at Texas A&M
Huge revenge game here for the Tigers who were simply embarrassed last year losing 63-21 while hosting Johnny Football and company. The 671 total yards allowed in that game was the most ever permitted in the history of Auburn football. While the Tigers finished the year 3-9 this seasons edition is a much stronger one. Auburn is only permitting 5.8 yards per play which is slightly higher than the FBS average. But this team has faced some pretty good offenses in Washington State, Arkansas State, LSU and Mississippi. Coming off an FCS opponent in Western Carolina you can guess that Gus Malzahn and company worked a bit defending this team in practice last week. With lowly Florida Atlantic on deck you know the team has had this game circled. Texas A&M will put up a lot of points in this game, that much is expected. But this defense has many cracks, particularly in the run game in which Auburn can take advantage. The Aggies have yet to cover a game by more than two points all season, as you are always paying a tariff when backing this high scoring unit. With a schedule that provides clear sailing until a trip to LSU on November 23rd, we can easily see this team overlooking an angry foe that they dominated last season. That has been the character of this team with Manziel behind center and this defense simply cannot be trusted. PLAY AUBURN |
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10-19-13 | Navy v. Toledo -7.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 14 m | Show |
Navy at Toledo
For the second straight week the Midshipmen face a team coming off of a bye. That isn't good news for Navy as a major advantage they have in-season is that the opposition rarely sees the Navy option. Getting the extra week to prepare for it is one big advantage for the opposition. Just last week Duke was coming off a bye and they led wire to wire in a dominating victory. The last three games Navy has been outscored by 22 combined points and out gained by 336 combined yards despite playing the likes of Duke, Air Force and Western Kentucky. The Midshipmen are only averaging 20.8 points per game despite playing against very giving defenses. While Toledo does have a big game on deck against Bowling Green, the Rockets have beaten the Falcons each of the last three seasons. This is a team that has gone 5-0-1 ATS against non-conference FBS competition and has already faced Florida, Missouri and an excellent Ball State squad. Toledo has the better overall numbers in this contest despite playing a stronger strength of schedule. The Glass Bowl has been very good to the host as they have never had a losing home spread record in any season in the last decade, that includes a perfect 2-0 spread mark this year. Toledo is permitting just 3.8 yards per attempt this season and that includes a 5.5 ypr Florida success rate in the opener. Since that game this Rocket defense has been stellar against the run, which is the strength of this Navy squad. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
230 Indianapolis at San Diego
Tough spot here for the Colts who just pulled off an impressive home victory over the physical Seattle Seahawks and now must travel all the way to the west coast. Many will point out that they already won impressively in San Francisco, but that could lead to a bit of overconfidence here. Especially considering that the 4-1 Colts face off against the 6-0 Broncos next week in an early must win game for playoff home field advantage. The Colts players know having to go to Denver in January is death for a domed team, so you have to know they have one eye towards the big showdown next weekend. While the Colts are 4-1 on the season they have been out gained twice and have only out yarded the opposition by triple digits once, and that was lowly Jacksonville. And as mentioned earlier teams coming off the physical Seahawks have not performed well against the spread the following week. San Diego has played the tougher schedule and despite a 2-3 record they have been in every game except last week in Oakland, and the Chargers out gained the Raiders by 128 yards. The last two weeks San Diego has out gained the opposition by over 300 total yards. The Chargers are producing 6.1 yards per play which is among the league leaders. Playing at home in the underdog role should bring out frenzied fan support. With Denver in their division and the Colts way ahead of them for wild card consideration, this is a must win contest for the host. The Colts will no doubt get their points but this Chargers team has played much better than their current record. Indy on the other hand has been very fortunate. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -1 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
226 New Orleans at New England
The Saints have been extremely impressive this season, especially at home, but we're not buying into their road record. New Orleans has played well away from home when facing dome teams and lower echelon competition, but this is a game we're not sure they can handle. The Saints struggled in a two point win at Tampa Bay and were out gained last week at Chicago. Despite a 4-1 record on the season the Patriots simply have not played well. They have been out gained in 3 of 5 games this season. But some key players are starting to return to this offense and the longer the new players play together the better this scoring unit will be. Defensively the Pats have done a fine job this season, holding the opposition to just 5.1 yards per play. New England is holding opposing signal callers to a quarterback rating of 66.2. While they have yet to face a signal caller as effective as Drew Brees, the defense has the tools to contain him. We expect this line to go to the key number of 3 by game time, so lets get this one out now in anticipation of the line move. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-13-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. NY Jets | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
215 Pittsburgh at New York Jets
This selection is simply based on what history has shown to be a very profitable situation. Winless teams coming off a bye have been an outstanding subset. Considering that the Steelers have a veteran coaching staff along with proven winners, this should increase the likelihood of a Pittsburgh cover. The Jets looked terrific on Monday Night Football against Atlanta, and we all know when a team looks good on national television they are overvalued by the general public the next week. Just a week ago the lookahead line on this game has the Steelers favored in the 2 1/2 point range. So based off a good Jets showing against what it's turning out to be a struggling Falcons team, the line moved upwards of 4 points. We're not buying the line move. Sure the Steelers have been terrible offensively this year, but even the poor offensive coordinator had to have made some adjustments with the extra week off. The Jets are still a team with a rookie quarterback going against this Pittsburgh defense. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-12-13 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +6.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 58 h 4 m | Show | |
136 Texas A&M at Mississippi
The Aggies had major turnover problems with Ole Miss last year and nearly suffered the outright loss as a 13 1/2 point road favorite. Despite an undefeated season thus far for Texas A&M this team has some major problems that need to be addressed. Keep in mind only once all season has this team won the yardage battle by over 150 yards, and that mismatch came against FCS entrant Sam Houston State. While Johnny Football and the offense once again looks dominant, the defense looks like a sieve. In the opener against Rice the team was missing key defensive starters, but since that time they have simply underperformed. Mississippi started the season strong but the last two weeks the offense couldn't get on track against Alabama & Auburn on the road. But now back home taking on the weak defense of the Aggies the real Mississippi scoring unit should return. The Rebels are averaging roughly the same amount of offensive yards as an median FCS squad, yet they faced three SEC defenses along with one of the better stop units in the Big 12. Plenty of value on the Rebels here based on the past two weeks struggles. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-12-13 | Miami (OH) v. Massachusetts Minutemen -3 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 117 h 31 m | Show | |
118 Miami Ohio at Massachusetts
Not even a coaching change will keep us from betting against these Redhawks. After two plus bad seasons in Oxford Don Treadwell has been fired after losing badly once against last week. This time Central Michigan beat the Redhawks on the road, a major feat indeed as the Chippewas had only won a combined five road games the previous 3+ seasons. Miami has been outscored by 38, 36 and 34 points away from home this year and they haven't surpassed 14 points scored in any of their first five contests. On paper this UMass team doesn't look a whole lot better. But keep in mind that the Minutemen faced a much tougher schedule thus far. Games against Wisconsin, Kansas State, Vanderbilt and Bowling Green have toughened up this squad for a major drop down in opposing talent. While the offense is in the same boat at the Redhawks scoring wise this team is only being beaten in first downs by 6.5 a game while Miami is being out-firstdowned by 17.6 per contest. Massachusetts didn't win a conference home game all last year in their first season in the MAC. They have been pointing to this contest as a coming out game, and they finally face a team of similar talent. In the last four games UMass has been out gained by a combined 722 total yards, Miami against lesser competition have been out yarded by a whopping 1186 yards. Only Wisconsin completely dominated UMass, while the Redhawks have been out gained by 280 yards or more on four occasions. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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10-10-13 | Arizona v. USC -5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
108 Arizona at USC
The last five meetings between these two have been decided by 7 points or less as Arizona has held their own against the Trojans. But neither team in this contest has a passing game to speak of and the USC personnel on defense is much superior to any unit the Wildcats put on the field. Arizona has amassed 445 total passing yards on the season despite playing three really bad football teams out of their four game schedule. Northern Arizona, UNLV and UTSA aren't exactly household names when it comes to pass defense and the Wildcats couldn't out gain any of those squads through the air. Arizona is averaging only 5.0 yards per play which is well below the 5.6 FBS average. And that was against a very weak schedule. USC on the other hand only permits 4.7 yards per play and their schedule featured the likes of Washington State, Utah State and Arizona State, three very good offenses. USC is allowing only 3.5 yards per rush which is well below the 4.3 ypr FBS average. They have the ability to stymie the Arizona rushing attack and for the Wildcats to pass the ball, something they haven't done all season. Now that the Lane Kiffin era is over for the Trojans, we can see this team coming out and proving a point from here on out, especially this week. The bye after the Arizona State debacle couldn't have come at a better time. This is a program that recruits the best of the best as the talent level far surpasses that of Arizona which is known as a basketball school. The best unit on the field is the USC defense and we can see that stop unit forcing at least one major mistake out of this limited Arizona scoring unit. This number is extremely cheap. PLAY USC |
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For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.