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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 177.5 | 74-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Detroit at Philadelphia
The Pistons are playing their third game in the last four days after going to overtime last night against the Hawks. In nine games as a road underdog this year the Pistons have gone under the posted total eight times. They have no interest in pushing the pace here as evidenced by the previous meeting between these two as Philadelphia won 96-73 staying well below the number. The Sixers are in the same 3 in 4 and second of back to back situation as Detroit. When Philadelphia has played unrested and been the favorite 3 of the 4 contests have stayed under the total. When they can control the tempo the Sixers prefer to slow the pace. Philadelphia has been a home favorite 11 times this season with 10 of those games staying under the posted total. In the last 11 days the Sixers have played seven games including two that went to overtime. We expect the tired legs to affect the shooting percentages here and we can't see either team pushing the pace. PLAY UNDER |
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01-24-12 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 192.5 | Top | 111-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
New York at Charlotte
The Knicks are a bad defensive team but the offense is playing without any type of rhythm this season. New York is known as an offensive team yet they have gone under the total in regulation play 9 of the last 10 games. The lone over was by just 2 points. When playing on the road Knick games are a perfect 6-0 to the under by a combined 44 points. Overall 6 of the last 9 New York games have stayed under this current total in regulation. This is the third time in this young season that these two clubs have tangled. They know what the other is trying to do, and the players are well informed as to what the go-to moves are of the player they are guarding. Last time out in New York the game played to just 178 points and the Knicks tend to push the pace more in front of their home fans. With Charlotte on a 1-10 straight up run they know the way to beat these Knicks is in a half-court game. Overall 8 of the last 11 Bobcats games have played under this posted total. We look for another low scoring affair here. PLAY UNDER |
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01-23-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 187 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Detroit at Oklahoma City
The Pistons know they can't compete on the road against this type of competition. Therefore they need to slow the pace in order to shorten the game. Overall 7 of 8 road games have stayed under the number for Detroit and against elite teams away from home Detroit played Chicago 18 points under the total. Only three Pistons games this year have surpassed this posted line. Oklahoma City is in the midst of playing an extremely easy schedule. New Orleans, New York, Boston, Washington, New Jersey, Detroit, New Orleans and Golden State. They are off 6 of 7 games in which they won by 9 points or more, they have no reason to push the pace here. The Thunder have gone under this posted total in 3 of their last 5 games. PLAY UNDER |
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01-21-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets UNDER 192 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs are an aging team with a key offensive ingredient out of the lineup. They are playing their 4th game in 5 days off a straight up home loss to Sacramento yesterday. San Antonio has dictated playing time based on the schedule thus far this season as coach Popovich wants to rest the legs of his tired players in anticipation of the playoffs. When the Spurs have played unrested this season they have gone under the posted total in 4 of 5 games. We expect San Antonio to try to slow down the pace here and we feel the Rockets will oblige. The Rockets are 1-7 O/U this season when playing an unrested team, seven straight times going under in this scenario. They are playing their 3rd game in 4 days so they will be very willing to slow the pace just like the visitor. The last time Houston played was Thursday and they had to go to overtime against New Orleans. As a home favorite Houston has gone under the posted total all four games and they are now 0-7 O/U at home this season. PLAY UNDER |
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01-18-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 178.5 | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis at New Orleans
These two just met on Saturday when the Grizzlies pounded the Hornets 108-99, easily surpassing the posted total of 175. But Memphis pushes the pace at home as witnessed by their 6-1 trend to the overs in home games. On the road Memphis has stayed under the posted total in all five contests, by margins of 11, 6, 20 1/2, 19 1/2 and 16 points. New Orleans isn't a dynamic offensive team, they need to win with defense. Which is why 5 of 7 home games have stayed under the posted total including four straight. The 108 points they allowed on Saturday to the Grizzlies was by far the most points they have permitted all season. We look for New Orleans to set the pace here as this game stays well below the posted total. When the Hornets and their opponent are both rested the under has come in 4 of 5 contests. PLAY UNDER |
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01-17-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Houston Rockets UNDER 191 | Top | 80-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Detroit at Houston
Pistons have been road underdogs six times this season with 5 of 6 staying under the posted total. In addition 5 of their 6 road games overall have stayed under this posted number of 191 1/2 as of this writing. Those scores were 170, 181, 169, 160 and 179. Detroit just doesn't have the offensive firepower to trade points, especially in the underdog role. Overall 12 of 17 games as underdogs have gone under. Houston has stayed under the posted total in all five of their home games, by margins of 7 1/2, 13 1/2, 8 1/2, 8 and 2 points in regulation. Off a 220 point shootout yesterday at Washington we look for the Houston defense to keep this number down on Tuesday. In six games in which the Rockets played unrested 5 of the 6 contests stayed under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-12 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 192 | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Sacramento at Minnesota
The Kings have been road underdogs seven times this season with 6 of those 7 games staying under the posted total. The reason has been a major lack of scoring for the Kings who have reached 90 points in those games just twice. They are off a 60 point effort last time out against the Chicago Bulls. Now in the final game of a five game road-trip we can't see Sacramento all of a sudden breaking out offensively. Minnesota has been favored in four games this season with each game staying under the posted total by margins of 14, 31, 14 and 20 1/2 points. Overall 6 of the last 7 games for the T-Wolves have failed to reach the closing total. In Minnesota games in which both teams are rested, all five games have stayed under the total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-12 | Houston Rockets v. Washington Wizards UNDER 190.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
Houston at Washington
Traditionally Martin Luther King day games tend to be lower scoring. It could be especially true this season as clubs have rarely played an afternoon contest because of the condensed schedule. Houston has been favored three times this season with those contests going under the posted total by margins of 13 1/2, 41 1/2 and 8 points. Overall Houston games have stayed under the posted total in regulation seven straight times, twice going over in overtime which helps our cause here. Washington has been in the home dog role five times this season with 4 of the 5 occurrences staying under the total. The Wizards haven't scored more than 96 points in any game this season. The last time they played in an early contest they and Minnesota went under the total by 31 points. PLAY UNDER |
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01-14-12 | Toronto Raptors v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 177 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Toronto at Chicago
The Raptors haven't hit the century mark since opening night against the Cavaliers. They have stressed defense this year which has made them more competitive, but it's been a slow process turning those defensive stands into offensive points. Overall 4 of their 6 games as road underdogs have stayed under the posted total. When rested 4 of 6 games overall have stayed under the total with one game going over by just 1/2 point. Chicago has been a defensive machine at home holding the opposition to 64, 74, 68 and 64 points, going under the posted total by a combined margin of 108 points. We look for the Chicago defense to continue their dominance. PLAY UNDER |
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01-12-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 184 | 81-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Charlotte at Atlanta
These two just met up in Charlotte on the 6th and Atlanta came away with a 102-96 overtime win. That game stayed under the posted total at the end of regulation. The last four Charlotte games have gone under the total by a combined 80 points as it's become clear that in order for this team to have success they must do so from a defensive perspective. Atlanta played last night and when facing an unrested opponent Bobcats games have gone under in regulation all four occurrences. Atlanta has played a brutal schedule to open the season, already taking the court for the 12th time since December 27th. In games in which the Hawks have come in unrested they have gone under the posted total in 4 of 5 games in regulation. We will look for another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-04-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. New York Knicks OVER 196.5 | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Charlotte at New York
While we missed the opening number we feel there is still plenty of value in this one. Charlotte is a bad team that plays poor defense. They have permitted 95 points or more to every team they have played. The last two games the Bobcats allowed 115 and 129 points. Playing their 3rd game in 4 days can't help their tired legs. New York has played five games but three of those opponents came out of camp with a definite defensive mindset. Whether coaching changes or bringing in defensive specialists, Golden State, the Lakers and Toronto all brought a defensive mindset to the season. Which is a main reason why three of the Knicks five games have stayed under the posted total. In the two games in which the opposition has decided to run with New York those games produced 210 and 206 points. We look for an up and down game tonight in the garden after New York produced just 85 points last time out against the Raptors. PLAY OVER |
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06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Dallas at Miami
Regardless of the outcome this has been one hell of a series. These teams match up so closely that no lead is safe. With Miami having their backs to the wall and Dallas proclaiming that they are treating this game as if it's a Game 7, we have to expect a very low scoring defensive battle. Overall 4 of the first 5 games in this series have stayed under the posted total, and traditionally defense continues to get stronger as a series evolves. The free throw shooting has been outstanding with both teams reaching at least 70% shooting in every game. That means that unless the refs all of a sudden start calling more fouls any extra points will not be coming from the foul line. Up until last game neither team ever sniffed 50% shooting from the field and both teams talked about their poor defensive performances after the previous game. We expect points to be hard to come by as this game stays well below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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05-18-11 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181.5 | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
3* Miami at Chicago
The talking heads have been saying that the Heat need to play at a faster pace in game two to have success, but that's the same thing they have said about Miami all year. The truth of the matter is that Miami is best at the defensive end of the court and we expect the Heat to bounce back after a poor defensive performance. It's not easy to get transition baskets when you constantly are out rebounded, therefore it would be foolish for Miami to pick up the pace. Chicago knows that they are the best defensive team in the league and we can't see them changing their style. Look for a low scoring game with very physical play. PLAY UNDER |
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05-04-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 186.5 | 93-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Dallas at Los Angeles
These two teams have matched up very well this year with each squad winning two games including a victory on the opponent's home court. The line gives us a slight advantage to the visitor but the situation favors the Lakers. Therefore we have no play on the side. Where we do see an advantage is in the total. All four games surpassed the current line of 186 1/2 and we expect this game to also finish above the posted total. Other than one game this year Dallas has shot well against the Lakers and we can't see Los Angeles coming up with any new wrinkles. The Lakers will get the calls by having the biggest named player on his home court with Los Angeles trailing in the series. The Lakers easily outshot the Mavs from the line in the first four games and we expect Bryant to be real aggressive driving to the lane. Only 31 free throws were attempted in game one and we expect that number to increase here. Both teams were coming off superior defensive opponents in the previous round and the line hasn't been adjusted for the more offensively proficient opponents here. Look for this game to reach the 190's. PLAY OVER |
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05-01-11 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 182 | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Boston at Miami
This is a much anticipated series with big name players taking center stage. While most of the household names are known for their offensive production we expect this series to be won on the defensive side of the court. Boston has prided themselves on their defense and now lane clogger Shaq O'Neill is expected to see some action. That can only slow down the Boston offense and clog the middle defensively. Miami has held seven straight opponents to less than the century mark as they have stepped up defensive intensity in the playoffs. Three of the four regular season meetings have gone under the posted total, and with fresh legs from Boston after sweeping the Knicks we see this opening game being played at a slow pace. PLAY UNDER |
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04-19-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 183.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
Atlanta at Orlando
The Magic pride themselves on their defense and Dwight Howard is always a leading vote getter for the defensive MVP Award. Atlanta lit up the Magic for 103 points on 51.4% shooting from the field in game one. In the four previous meetings this season the Hawks scored 85, 91, 80 and 85 points. In the previous seven games from the 2009-2010 season Atlanta produced 84, 75, 98, 71, 86, 86 and 81 points. So you can see that the Hawks far exceeded their average offensive output in the opening game victory. Compared to the previous meetings from this season Orlando also shot far better than projected. The Magic were successful on 45.3% of their field goals compared to 41.6%, 35.2%, 37.8% and 43.0% in the other four meetings this season. The total in the opening game was 181 and as we write this the line has gone up 2 1/2 points from that number for game two. We can't see the entire pace of the series changing after just one high scoring game. We expect both teams to perform much better defensively here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-16-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 203 | 99-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
LA Lakers at Cleveland
The Lakers are in a major offensive funk right now scoring 93 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. But the great news for Los Angeles is that they are playing a terrible defensive team tonight, with absolutely no inside presence to compete against the huge front court of LA. Therefore the Lakers can pound the ball inside all night for easy baskets with only JJ Hickson putting up any type of defensive resistance. On the other bench the Cleveland coaching staff knows full well that they need to run and gun in order to put up any type of offensive production against this tall Laker squad. And now that Mo Williams has returned to the lineup they have that ability. Coach Scott well remembers the last time his squad took on his former team, the Lakers limited Cleveland to just 57 points in an embarrassing 55 point defeat. The Lakers need to correct their offensive problems and we don't expect a superior defensive effort against the worst team in the league, especially considering how they dominated Cleveland in their last game. This is the last game in a disappointing seven game East Coast road trip. Look for this game to turn into a playground type atmosphere as both teams look to pick up the pace. PLAY OVER |
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02-13-11 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207 | Top | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Washington at Cleveland
The Wizards haven't won a road game all season while the Cavaliers just broke a record tying losing streak. What do these two teams have in common? They are young and play little defense. The Wizards allow over 103 points a game while Cleveland permits more than 105 per contest. In 8 of the last 9 road games for Washington they have permitted at least 100 points. This is a team that doesn't help defensively and that's especially true away from home. The Cavaliers have very little presence inside with a young JJ Hickson being the only real defensive threat and he suffers from foul trouble on many occassions. Guards are able to penetrate to the lane on the Cavs with little physical reaction. Baron Davis did as he pleased on Friday and it left the rest of the Clipper team wide open for uncontested jumpers. Cleveland has permitted 11 straight opponents to reach 99 points or more with 7 of those 11 reaching 110 points or better. Mo Williams returned to action on Friday and he is the only Cleveland player that has the ability to drive to the basket and pull up for a long range three. His ability to stretch the defense will allow the other Cleveland players to have open shots. But his return comes at a price as he's not a good defender and the young point guards of the league can have a big game at his expense. Look for a fast paced game with plenty of open shots as this game sails over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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02-12-11 | San Diego St v. UNLV UNDER 129 | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
635/636 San Diego St at UNLV
The Aztecs have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series as they are one of the few teams on the schedule of UNLV that matches them in athleticism. UNLV isn't a good shooting team anyway which makes this match-up a bad one for the Rebels. UNLV needs to get in the open court to get clean looks at the basket and the Aztecs are so long and lean that simply doesn't happen. The last two meetings saw the Rebels fail to reach 50 points as they shot 36.1% and 32.7% from the floor. San Diego State has shown some chinks in the armor as of late but that has come against teams with a solid perimeter game like BYU. UNLV simply doesn't have that ability to shoot well from the outside. Therefore San Diego State can use their huge edge in rebounding to take advantage of a smaller Rebel squad. The last four meetings have seen a 9 rebound or more advantage for the Aztecs which is huge in a projected low scoring game. We look for San Diego State to once again stuff a questionable UNLV offense in another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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