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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report NY GIANTS (3 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 6) Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Also play a 7-Star wager on the ‘OVER’ and consider no more than a 3-Star amount on a reverse action parlay using the Giants and the ‘over’ OR a 3-start straight parlay using the Giants and the ‘OVER’. SIM Projections and Results This money line database query has produced a remarkable 24-3 record for 89% since 1980. Play on any team using the money line in the second half of the season (NY GIANTS) that are mistake-free teams averaging less than 1.25 TO-per-Game committed and is now facing a team forcing no more than 1.25 TO-per-Game and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Giants are also 14-7 ATS off of B2B games achieving a turnover margin of 2 or better. |
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11-24-18 | Auburn +25.5 v. Alabama | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Auburn (7 - 4) at Alabama (11 - 0) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 3:30 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results Here is a strong database situational query that has produced a 24-5 ATS result for 83% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs (AUBURN) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins. A second query under scores the strength of this play even more producing a 25-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners since 2008. Play on a road team after game 7 that is an average defensive team allowing between 330 to 390 YPG and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game And is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 280 to 330 YPG. |
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11-24-18 | Michigan v. Ohio State +5 | Top | 39-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Ohio State (105) Michigan (10 - 1) at Ohio St (10 - 1) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 12:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Buckeyes, who are priced as 5-point home dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 5-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +190. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Buckeyes pull off the upset returns ($380). If they fail to win, but cover, the return is still a healthy 5-Star amount. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Michigan is 22-61 ATS (-45.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards-per-attempt; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50 or fewer yards. OSU is a solid 142-54 ATS (+82.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points. OSU is 34-0 SU and 23-9-2 ATS, and 21-12 ‘OVER’ in home games scoring 28 ro more points and passing for a minimum of 8.5 yards-per-attempt. Not since October 29, 2011 has OSU been installed as a home dog. On they date, they played Wisconsin installed as 7.5-point home dogs and won the game 33-29. Dating back to 1980, our DB shows that OSU has been a home dog on 16 occasions and have gone 7-8-1 SU and 10-5-1 ATS. The last time Michigan came to Columbus as a favorite was November 20, 2004 and they were throttled 37-21. Interesting that the line for this game showed Michigan priced as a 5-point favorite just as they are for today’s game. The following database query has produced a 37-12 ATS mark good for 76% over the past 5 seasons. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more YPG and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This DB query is based on the money line and is remarkable in its’ own right sporting a 28-19 SU record and making 42.6 stars per Star unit wager since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (OHIO ST) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring 34 or more PPG and after scoring 42 points or more last game. |
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11-24-18 | Florida v. Florida State +7.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Florida State (200) Florida (8 - 3) at Florida St (5 - 6) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 12:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Seminoles, who are priced as 7-point home dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 5-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +240. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Seminoles pull off the upset returns ($480). If they fail to win, but cover, the return is still a healthy 5-Star amount. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Seminoles to score a minimum 24 points and gain at least 8.5 passing yards per attempt. In FSU home games where they have attained these performance measures, they have produced a 30-3 SU record and 22-11-1 ATS mark; since the start of the 2013 season, they are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS for 72% covering by 6.3 PPG. This database situation query that has produced a 25-6 ATS record good for 81% winners since the start of the 1992 season. Play against road favorites (FLORIDA) that are solid offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and are now facing an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after 7 or more games. |
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11-24-18 | Syracuse v. Boston College -6.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Boston College (160) Syracuse (8 - 3) At Boston College (7 - 4) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 12:00 PM
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results Syracuse is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992; 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play. BC is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 40-14 ATS (+24.6 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points. The following database system query has produced a solid 35-13 ATS mark good for 73% winners over the past five seasons. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SYRACUSE) with an elite offense averaging 450 or more total yards-per-game and after being outgained by the previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +15 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup The South Florida Bulls (105) UCF (10 - 0) at South Florida (7 - 4) Week 13 Friday, 11/23/2018 4:15 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Bulls, who are priced as 14.5-point home dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 8-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +500. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Bulls pull off the upset returns 10-Stars ($1,000). SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Both teams are projected to score 28 or more points. Home dogs of 10 to 17.5 points scoring 28 or more points and their guests matching that output have produced a 240-83-10 ATS mark good for 74% covering by an average of 6.3 points. Drilling the data set a bit further to include conference games returns a 198-61-8 ATS record good for 76.4% covering by an average of 6.7 points. Finally, if the visitor ranks in the Top-10, the home dog takes real meaning with a 25-4-1 SATS record and 86% covering by an average of 8.7 points. The following database query has produced a 31-10 ATS mark good for 76% since 1992. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and now playing a good team with a 60 to 80 win percentage. |
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11-22-18 | Bears -3 v. Lions | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup The Chicago Bears (105) Chicago (7 - 3) at Detroit (4 - 6) Week 12 Thursday, 11/22/2018 12:30 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Chicago Bears, who are priced as 3-point road favorites. This play is with Chase Daniels at QB. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Bears are a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards-per-attempt. Detroit is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards-per-attempt. Bears are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard-per-play. In Detroit home games facing a strong QB, who is completing 64% or more of his passes and are outgained by at least 0.5 YPPL has produced a poor 30-88-3 ATS mark losing to the spread by an average of 8.1 points. Since the start of the 20`15 season, the Lions are 5-14 ATS for 26% under the same performance measures. Chase Daniels will start at QB. Good news for him knowing he has excellent matchup advantages with his two WR Anthony Miller (Slot) and Taylor Gabriel. Allen Robinson is evenly matched against Lions corner Darius Slay. Miller will see more targets in this game using quick slants, hooks, bubble screens for Daniels to execute successfully. So, with the run game over-matched against the Lions defensive front, these quick hitters will serve the same purpose and put Daniels and the offense into a minimum of long downs. Detroit will have immense difficulty getting passes completed to either WR, but especially T.J. Jones, who will be covered by Amukamara. This matchup is the weakest of any WR-CB matchup on this weeks’ NFL card. They are both 6-foot tall, but Amukamara has size and speed weighing 205 pounds to Jones’ 190 and speed with a 4.38 versus 4.46 40-time. Not much difference in speed, but the size allows Amukamara to be very physical with Jones in the first 5-yards of any route. Kenny Golladay will be the other starting WR for the Lions and he will defended by one of the best in Kyle Fuller. The Lions have swapped these WR given that Golladay has lineup ‘right’ 39%, left 30%, and slot 16% of plays run, but either Bears defender has the upper hand in both matchups. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Los Angeles Rams (466) Kansas City (9 - 1) at La Rams (9 - 1) Week 11 Monday, 11/19/2018 8:15 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Rams, who are priced as 3-point home favorites. This line may go to 3.5 from its’ current level of 3 -120 that are available at the majority of books we monitor. Lines makers really do not want to have the number ‘3’ changed and would prefer to move the vig instead. Yet, I do not think you’ll see -3 and -125 vig and instead the line will shift to -3 ½ -105. With the Rams projected to win by more than 11 points, the vig is almost irrelevant at this point and it doesn’t hurt to book the wager at -3 -120 line. An alternative is to play the money at -160, but reduce the size of your bet so you are only risking a 10-star amount. So, 10-Stars devided by 1.60 would then equal a wager of 6.25-Stars on the money line. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Rams to score between 28 and 35 points, will rush for more than 140 yards and pass for more than 300. The Rams are 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU oinstalled as a home favorite when they rush for 140 or more yards and pass for more than 300 yards. This database situational query has produced a 39-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2008. Play on favorites (LA RAMS) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games and is now facing an opponent having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. When these teams are home favorites, the record improves to 25-4 ATS for 86% and is also 13-2 ATS over the past five seasons. Next, this query has returned a record of 51-21 for 71% winners over the past 10 seasons and works against the Chiefs. Play against underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) that is a very hot team having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. This is the game we have all been waiting for and after the Saints put up the gaudy offensive and defensive numbers against the defending SB Champs Eagles yesterday, the Rams may have just a bit more motivation to show them and the football world what they are capable of achieving. The Rams have a significantly better defense based on our metrics and rankings and this may be more of the highlight tonight then the offenses. The Rams pass rush ranks best in the NFL and the dominant reason is that they have the personnel to cover any WR in man situations and open space. The left side of the OL is vulnerable to this aggressive pass rush. Guard Cam Irving and left tackle Eric Fisher have really struggled in blitz situations an drank near the bottom of NFL starters in this category. Of course, Mahomes has the athleticism to extend plays and avoid sacks, but few teams, if any, have the intelligent speed that the Rams defense possesses. Look for the Rams to really bring the heat in passing downs when the Chiefs are on their right hash. The Rams can execute containment on the perimeter and use the right sidelines essentially as an extra defender. This could see Mahomes make the critical mistake of throwing back across the field with high risk results. Jared Goff leads the NFL with 204 attempts having a minimum of 2.5 seconds to execute the play and has achieved a 107.3 QBR that ranks ninth best. By comparison, Mahomes ranks 9th in attempts with 2.5 or more seconds of protection, buty ranks a dismal 26th in QBR. Think KC will blitz Goff? Well, that is a very dangerous situation given that Goff has achieved a 111.9 QBR with no pressure and a 115.5 under blitz conditions. Moreover, the Rams trio of receivers of Kupp, Woods, and Cooks have gotten the most respect of any group in the NFL with defenders giving them an average cushion of 6.5 yards and all of them average more than 3.5 yards of separation on targeted pass plays. Now, Kupp is not playing and the Rams will adjust to fill that gap that he leaves in their overall production. That addition can come from many different players. Rams will look to run more two TE sets with Everett, who is an exceptional receiver and can line-up anywhere on the field. His size and speed will present an immediate matchup problem for the Chiefs defense. Josh Reynolds will certainly see more targets as well. Overall, the two TE and 4 and 5-WR sets will have these different personnel in them and Goff still has Gurley in the backfield to use as a decoy for his high percentage play action pass plays. Take the Rams |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints -7 | Top | 7-48 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Philadelphia (4 - 5) At New Orleans (8 - 1) Week 11 Sunday, 11/18/2018 4:25 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results Here is a strong database situational query that has produced a 40-16 ASTS result for 71% winners since 2008. Play against any team (PHILADELPHIA) off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite in the month of November. A second query under scores the strength of this play even more producing a 63-28 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1980. Play on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) tht are outrushing opponents by 40 or more YPG and after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game and are now facing an average rushing team posting a +/- 30 RYPG differential after 8 or more games. |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Jacksonville Jaguars (472) Pittsburgh (6 - 2 - 1) At Jacksonville (3 - 6) Week 11 Sunday, 11/18/2018 1:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are priced as 5.5-point home dogs. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Jaguars to score 24 to 30 points and will hold Pittsburgh to less than 85 rushing yards. When the JaguARS HAVE MET OR EXCEEDED these performance measures in home games they have gone 17-2 SU winning by 10.5 PPG and 13-5-1 ATS for 72% covering by 7.7 points. When installed as a home dog, they have gone 4-1 SUATS covering by 11 points. When the Steelers have been involved with games rushing for less than 85 yards and allowing 24 to 30 on the road they have gone a miserable 2-13 SU losing by an average of 11.4 PPG and 3-12 ATS failing to cover by an average of 11.20 points. When they are installed as road favorites they have gone 1-7 SUATS losing by an average of 9.9 points and failing to cover by an average of 13.4 points. This database situation query that has produced a 30-8 ATS record good for 79% winners spanning the last 10 seasons. Play on any team that is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. |
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11-17-18 | Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5 | Top | 52-51 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Ohio St (9 - 1) at Maryland (5 - 5) Week 12 Saturday, 11/17/2018 12:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup SMU 181) Memphis (6 - 4) at SMU (5 - 5) Week 12 Friday, 11/16/2018 9:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the SMU Mustangs, who are priced as 7.5-point home dogs. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Mustangs to attain a 12.5 yards-per-point ratio or lower and that their YPPT ratio will be less (more efficient offense) than the Memphis Tigers. When installed as home dogs, SMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS covering by an average of 20 PPG when meeting or exceeded these performance measures. This database situation query that has produced a 34-8 ATS record good for 81% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SMU) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio -2.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Ohio University (513) Buffalo (9 - 1) at Ohio U (6 - 4) Week 12 Wednesday, 11/14/2018 7:00 PM
SIM Projections and Results Projections call for Ohio to score at least 28 points, have at least 200 rushing yards, and gain a minimum of 6.5 YPPL. Since 2006, Ohio is a solid 47-6 SU winning by 18.7 PPG and 40-10-2 ATS covering the spread by 8.9 PPG when scoring 28 points and gaining 200 or more rushing yards. When attaining these performance measures in home games they are 21-4-2 ATS for 84% covering by 9 PPG. |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +9 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys +8 v. Eagles | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +19 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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11-10-18 | Auburn +14 v. Georgia | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
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11-10-18 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -8 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
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11-10-18 | TCU +12 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State -18 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
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11-04-18 | Lions +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
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11-03-18 | Missouri +6.5 v. Florida | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
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11-03-18 | Penn State +13.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-42 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 30 m | Show |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Southern -6.5 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 25-44 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
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11-03-18 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -3 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
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11-03-18 | Nebraska +19.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
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11-02-18 | Colorado +3 v. Arizona | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida -10 | Top | 40-52 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo | Top | 42-51 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings +2 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
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10-28-18 | Packers v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +4.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
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10-27-18 | Iowa v. Penn State -5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
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10-26-18 | Utah -10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
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10-25-18 | Baylor +14 v. West Virginia | Top | 14-58 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Baylor University Bears ( Baylor (4 - 3) at W Virginia (5 - 1) Week 9 Thursday, 10/25/2018 7:00 PM SIM grading 7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale. Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager on Baylor using the money line, which currently shows them installed as a 13.5-point road dog. SIM Matching Game Situations The summary projections call for both teams to score 18 or more points. In past Baylor road games where they were installed as dogs of 10 to 17 points and both teams did score 28 or more points, Baylor has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by an average of 11 points per game. Looks like WVU will need a last minute FG to win this one – or maybe not. |
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10-23-18 | Troy -10.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
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10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue +13 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson -17 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
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10-19-18 | Colorado State v. Boise State -24 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
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10-18-18 | Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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10-14-18 | Rams -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
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10-13-18 | Michigan State v. Penn State -13.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
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10-13-18 | Georgia -8 v. LSU | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 44 m | Show |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show |
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10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt +7.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | 9-12 | Win | 105 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
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10-07-18 | Titans -5 v. Bills | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
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10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins v. Bengals -6 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
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10-06-18 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +7 | Top | 45-23 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report NOTRE DAME (5 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (3 - 1) Week 6 Saturday, 10/6/2018 8:00 PM
SIM Projections and Results Here is a solid database system query that has produced a solid 44-14 record good for 76% winners over the past 25 seasons. Play against road favorites good offensive team averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yards-per-play and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 4.8 to 5.6 YPP. |
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10-06-18 | Auburn -3.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report AUBURN (4 - 1) at MISSISSIPPI ST (3 - 2) Week 6 Saturday, 10/6/2018 7:30 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results State is coming off back-to-back horrid offensive games losing at Kentucky 28-7 and losing at home to Florida 13-6. Traveling ranked teams in the top-25 playing a team that scored 10 or less points in two straight games are 26-8 ASYS for 77% winners and 33-1 SU. Here is a great database system query that has produced a 29-5 record good for 85% winners since 1992. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’, with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game. |
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10-06-18 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
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10-06-18 | Kansas +28 v. West Virginia | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 29-19 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
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10-05-18 | Utah State +3 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 103 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 37-36 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
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09-30-18 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 105 h 45 m | Show |
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09-29-18 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
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09-29-18 | Syracuse +25.5 v. Clemson | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
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09-29-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +4 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +15 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams -7 | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
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09-22-18 | Kansas +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M +26.5 v. Alabama | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
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09-22-18 | Georgia -14 v. Missouri | Top | 43-29 | Push | 0 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic +14 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa +7 v. Temple | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
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09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +3 | 17-20 | Win | 111 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +13 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
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09-15-18 | Rutgers v. Kansas -2.5 | Top | 14-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
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09-09-18 | Bills +8 v. Ravens | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
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09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts -2 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -2 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
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09-01-18 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech -2 | 47-27 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
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09-01-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Oklahoma -20 | Top | 14-63 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
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08-30-18 | New Mexico State +23 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report New Mexico State (137) NEW MEXICO ST (7 - 6) at MINNESOTA (5 - 7) Week 1 Thursday, 8/30/2018 7:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy 7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale. Place a 7-star wager on the Aggies using the line, which currently prices them as 20.5-point road dogs.
SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Aggies to allow less than 27 points and allow no more than 150 rushing yards. When the Aggies have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS and covering (ATS margin) by an average of 10 points. In road games installed as a minimum dog of 14.5 points and allowing 27 or fewer points, they are a perfect 9-0 ATS. NMST had one of the most improved defenses in the nation last year having been one of the worst in 2016 allowing 497 yards per game. In 2017, they improved to allowing 401 and allowed just 336 over their last three games in 2017. They also return 9 of the 11 defensive starters. Teams in this position entering the next season are almost always undervalued by the betting public and this is reflected in this game where the line opened at 17.5 and now is at 20.5. So, teams that improved their defenses by 90 or more yards per game and had more wins last season than the season prior are a solid 33-15 ATS for 69% ATS winners over the past 25 seasons.
Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season. College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners. NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%. NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4% 14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans. NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%. NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%. NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%. MLB 10-Star plays 10-5 or $5,730.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager. MLB 2018 7-Star 69-68 and 6.33 units x $700 = $4,4310 MLB 2018 5-Star 13-11 and 4.61 units x $500 = $2,305 MLB Overall 2018 $12,486.00 CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800 NFLX 4-2 ATS 7-Stars and $1,260 2-0 ATS 10-Stars and $2,000 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: New England (312) The Matchup: JACKSONVILLE (12 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 3) Start Time: Week 20 Sunday, 1/21/2018 3:05 PM SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale. Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on New England using the line. The line opened at 9 and 8 ½ at some other spots. and JAX money came in on news of Brady’s injured hand. The line went to -7, and now has risen to 7 ½ , which is the level we believe that an equilibrium will take place. The injury has now been determined and reported to be a cut on the hand and that Brady practiced in full Friday and threw well. We noted in the reports that never were the fingers of the hand mentioned. Injured fingers are far more important than a cut to any other part of the throwing hand. Brady is known for his strong arm and amazing spin that pierces through headwinds with ease. The fingers of the hand are what puts spin on the football, just like on a baseball and any sphere that is connected to the hand and figers. So, we feel very confident, that Brady will be as close to 100% as any 40-year QB can possibly be for this game.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics The Jaguars have used play action 44% of their pass plays ranking highest in the NFL this season. The Eagles and Patriots have used play action 32% of the time by comparison. In play action,. Bortles has attained a strong 105.6 passer rating, which is third-best among qualifying QB. In the two playoffs games, JAX has used play action in 24 of their 49 pass attempts. Bortles has completed 13 of those 24 play action pass plays, 176 passing yards, and both TD’s. The Patriots are known to take away the strength of their opponent and make the opponent somehow defeat them by using their weaker assets. DT Flowers is the Patriot that can disrupt the ground attack with Fournette and also get immense pressure up the middle making it difficult for Bortles to have any wide passing lanes to complete pass plays. His colleague is LDT Malcolm Brown, who is also one of the best in the league and the two DTs combined are arguably the best pair in the NFL. The interior OL is weak for the Jaguars. RG AJ Cann has graded quite low against his peers and will be overwhelmed in run blocking and especially pass protection. LT Cam Robinson is struggling as well and he may become a target for corner blitzes. However, we believe the more that JAX has to call plays directed to the left, the more it will play into the strengths of the Patriots defensive scheme. Further, the Jaguars do not have the elite WR that will even challenge Stephon Gilmore or Malcolm Butler. This in turn, then forces Bortles to go to more 3-WR sets on second and more than 6 yards, where play action is essentially useless against the Patriots defense. So, we strongly believe that the tandem DT will not need any help to clog the passing and running lanes on early downs forcing Bortles into long down situations where he has struggled. Brady has the best passer efficiency rating in the NFL by a large amount and a monumental amount over Bortles. Brady also has the best TE in the NFL by a large amount based on yards-per-route-run. Brady also has a favorable matchup on the perimeter using Cooks and RB Dion Lewis. We would not be surprised to see 4 WR sets on the first Patriot possession that will serve to spread the Jaguars defense and make the middle of the field open for Gronk and also power running plays between the tackles with Birkhead and/or James White. The media talks about the Jaguars best-ranked NFL defense, but it is actually the Patriots defense that deserves and has earned that recognition. Since giving up 33 in a loss to Carolina October 1, only the Dolphins have scored more than 16 points (17 points) in 6 home games.
Game Intelligence Analytics Play on any team (NEW ENGLAND). After leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. And is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. 32-8 over the last 5 seasons for 80% and has made $2320 wagering $100 per play. SIM Matching Game Situations New England 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Brady is 22-10 ATS when facing good defenses allowing between 14 and 20 PPG. Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017 and also 12-3 ATS for 80% winners in College Hoops and on a 5-2 ATS run in the NBA. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Jacksonville (305) The Matchup: JACKSONVILLE (11 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (13 - 3) Start Time: Week 19 Sunday, 1/14/2018 1:05 PM SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale. Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on the Jaguars using the line.
An alternative wager is to place a 5 star amount on the line and then add a 2 star amount using the money line. The money line is trading at about 245 to 255 which is very attractive. Of course, not all of these types of dogs will win SU, but over the course of the season, there will be enough of them where this type of combination wager adds a significant amount to your total profit over the course of a season.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics The Jaguars became only the third team since 2000 to have 4 or fewer wins in the previous season and then win a playoff game the next season. They accomplished that feat last week in their win over Buffalo and now find themselves with an even greater test against Pittsburgh. Of the 17 teams that lost their playoff game, none had the power and dominating defense that the Jaguars possess. Many of them did not have a veteran QB either. It is very probable that the Steelers will put a ‘spy’ on Bortles given his recent scrambling ability and rushing yards in recent games. Bortles ranks 12th in the NFL in QB Run threat and had 71 of his 88 rushing yards scrambling in last week’s win. The ‘spy’ will be William Gay and certainly can minimize Bortles scrambling threat. However, this puts one less man in coverage and can make it easier for the OL to create passing lanes for Bortles too. Marquis Lee is projected to have a very big day if the Jags are to win this game. He will be covered by Joe Haden, who has had a very good season after two poor ones. Lee is Bortles favored target and has the length and size to get enough separation from Haden to make plays downfield. Bortles will need protection too and here is arguably the biggest advantage for the Jags offense. Specifically, Jags Center Brandon Linder is an elite one in the league and is one of the best centers in pass protection, which will offset the pass rushing strength of DI Javon Hargrave.
Game Intelligence Analytics Play on road underdogs using the money line (JACKSONVILLE). After failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. And is now facing an opponent after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. 33-30 since 1983 for 52.4% and making $3,720.00 per $100 wager. If the line is 7 or higher, the record becomes 13-7 ATS for 65% ATS winners.
SIM Matching Game Situations Jaguars 63-25 ATS (+35.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. 14-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017 and also 14-6 ATS in College Hoops. So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018.
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: New England (304) The Matchup: TENNESSEE (10 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 3) Start Time: Week 19 Saturday, 1/13/2018 8:15 PM SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale. Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on New England using the line.
Game Intelligence Analytics Patriots are a solid 16-1 ATS (+14.9 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons and 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. SIM Matching Game Situations New England is: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards this season. 81-12 ATS when achieving an 11 or less yards per point ratio. 6-1 ATS since 2015 6-1 ATS in playoff games dating back to 2002. Tennessee is: 3-7 ATS as away double digit dog and scoring 21 or fewer points. 30-53 ATS when allowing an opponent 6.0 or more yards per play. 8-48 ATS when allowing an opponent 11 or less yards per point. Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017. They have also been applied to college hoops that is now on an 12-5 ATS run.
So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018. The annual will cost you just $5.47 per day and average about $1.37 per play.
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01-13-18 | Falcons -3 v. Eagles | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Atlanta (301) The Matchup: ATLANTA (11 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 3) Start Time: Week 19 Saturday, 1/13/2018 4:35 PM SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale. Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on the Atlanta Falcons using the line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics With Foles under center, there are numerous concerning questions regarding the health of the Eagles offense. Yes, he was an All-Pro, but that is ancient news and irrelevant to this game. Yes, he looked quite poor in his last two games filling in for Wentz, but will HC Pederson be able to fix the problems having had two week sof preparation? The Falcons have a very good and vastly underrated defensive unit. The unit is led by MLB Deion Jones, who ranks 3rd best of all players at his position in the NHL and who shutdown the pass catching abilities of the Rams Todd Gurley. The Rams second year RB is a finalist for the league MVP award and none have played better against him than Jones. The Eagles TE Zack Ertz is the best receiver on the offense, but he will have his toughest matchup this season against Jones. The Eagles will most definitely look to get Ertz matched up against SAM LB Beasley, who is the weak link on this defensive unit. However, if the Eagles are forced to take Ertz to the perimeter to achieve that matchup, you can be certain that Atlanta will bring max pressure right up the middle. So, without having a safety value TE option, Foles will have difficulty moving the chains. The Eagles OL is quite good and led by Center Jason Kelce, who ranks best in the NFL. The right side of the Eagles line including RG, Brooks, and RT Johnson, is significantly better than left side. Power running plays will be aimed to this side, I believe, but will be going right at the strength of the Falcons defense line. Desmond Trufant will be defending pass routes targeting Alshon Jeffries. Here again, this is advantage Falcons, as Trufant is more than capable of handling Jeffries in man coverage island situations. Moreover, Trufant has one of the best SS in the NFL in Keanu Neal in bracket type coverage defensive schemes. These two could have opportunities to bate Foles into making poor decisions in vertical routes leading to interceptions. Look for Atlanta to move slot CB Brian Poole to cover Torrey Smith and then move Robert ASlford to slot CB to cover Nelson Agholor in the Eagles 3-wide sets. Smith has been awful and ranks 114th the NFL WR rankings. So, Smith doesn’t even provide a decoy option for Foles to help open up the middle of the field for crossing routes. On offense, Atlanta has several major matchup advantages with the most glaring one being Julio Jones being defended by CB Ronald Darby. On the other side of the field, Mills has been exploited in double move pass routes and Sanu is one of the best around the league in executing sharp corners and well-executed routes. Atlanta does not have strong guard play along the offensive line in Garland and Schwitzer, but they are flanked by strong Center and tackle play. The Key point is that Matt Ryan can get rid of the ball quickly in under 2.7 seconds and this minimizes any pressure from the Eagles elite defensive front four. The Falcons do have the option to execute power run plays aimed at DRT Jernigan and DRE Curry.
Game Intelligence Analytics Play on favorites (ATLANTA). After having won 3 out of their last 4 games. And now facing an opponent having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. 34-8 over the last 10 seasons for 81% winners and has made $2,520. Per $100 wagered. Over the past five season, this query has shown a 21-3 ATS record good for 88% winners. Adding in the away favorite parameter to the above query produces an incredible 8-1 ATS mark good for 89% winners.
SIM Matching Game Situations Falcons 11-6 ATS for 65% when allowing opponents 5.5 to 6 yards-per-play over the L3 seasons. Falcons are 15-8 ATS for 65% when opponent commits 2 or more turnovers. Matt Ryan is 12-13 for 62% when averaging 7.7 or more yards per pass attempt. Eagles 8-18 ATS for just 31% winners when committing two or more turnovers in home games. 2-12 ATS when allowing opposing QB to verage 7.7 or more yards per attempt. Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017. So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +4.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 154 h 56 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Georgia (152) The Matchup: ALABAMA (12 - 1) vs. GEORGIA (13 - 1) Start Time: Week 17 Monday, 1/8/2018 8:45 PM SIM grading: 10 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale. Recommended Strategy: Place a 10 star wager on Georgia using the line.
An alternative wager is to place a 7.5 star amount on the line and then add a 2.5 star amount using the money line. The money line is trading at about 170 to 190.
There will be alternative lines for this Championship game. An optional wager strategy is to place an additional 3 star amount on the Georgia -3 ½ line, which we believe will be lined at +250 and perhaps even higher. Check our Twitter account for updates to this line as Monday approaches @JohnRyanSports1.
Game Intelligence Analytics Two great teams with great defenses featuring speed and power will be displayed in this All-SEC Championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The SIM Algorithms all reveal a line that is closer to pick-em than the current 4 ½ line. Alabama has the best scoring defense in the national allowing just 12.0 PPG. However, Georgia is not far behind them ranking 4th allowing 15.8 PPG. Alabama ranks 13th in offensive scoring at 36.4 PPG while Georgia ranks 15th scoring 35.8 PPG. Both teams lone loss was to Auburn, which also has a great defense and plays a similar type game plan that both of these teams play. This game well might come down to Georgia’s better efficiency at converting third-down situations than Alabama. Georgia holds the edge and they also have a stronger points-per-play ratio. Alabama does rank best in the nation with a 9.5 yards per point margin (YPPM) while Georgia ranks 8th best with a 6.2 ratio. However, over the last three games, Alabama has only a 0.8 ratio while Georgia sports a 4.6 ratio. This reflects that the elevation of opponent class has revealed potential weaknesses inherent in the Alabama game plans. As we had believed would happen in the semifinal game, Georgia will look to be very physical right from the start of this game and will look to wear down the Alabama defense, particularly the LB part. In time, this will open up the play action plays just as it did in the semifinal game leading to big plays down the middle of the field. The SIM projection calls for Georgia to win this game by 10 points. SIM Matching Game Situations Money Line Matches Alabama is 13-42 against the money line (-79.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Alabama is 4-18 against the money line (-35.8 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. Georgia is 7-1 against the money line (+6.4 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards over the last 3 seasons. Georgia is 12-1 against the money line (+11.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Georgia is 42-14 against the money line (+22.0 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points. Georgia is 22-4 against the money line (+23.5 Units) in road games when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. ATS Matches Alabama is 13-40 ATS (-31.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Alabama is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points. Georgia is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season. Georgia is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards. Georgia is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. DataBase Query Play on neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA). That are excellent rushing teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards per game. And after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games. 23-3 ATS since 1992 good for 88.5% and $1,970 per $100 wagered. Since 2014, it has gone 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS with an average ATS margin of 16.8 points.
Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to a solid and consistent 46-24 ATS 65.7% record in 2017. So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018. The annual will cost you just $5.47 per day and average about $1.37 per play. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Kansas City (102) The Matchup: TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 6) Start Time: Week 18 Saturday, 1/6/2018 4:30 PM SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale. Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on Kansas City using the line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics Tennessee will struggle to stop the KC ground attack and the projections are illustrated below in the SIM matching Game Situations section. Alex Smith is amazing in play action situations and Tennessee defense is not good at all defending play action. Smith led the league in deep passing yards with 1344 yards and 12 TD. Tyreek Hill led the league in deep passing yards with 628 and TE Kelce led the league in all TE with 266 yards. The capability of KC to make the big chunk yards on offense will provide more than enough points on the scoreboard to win this game and cover easily. Despite Mariota using his legs to move chains in their week 17 win, he ranks second to last in QBR with a clean pocket at just 78.2. That is second to last to Cleveland’s QB Kiser.
Game Intelligence Analytics Teams that are playing in the Wild Card Round and are home favorites of 7.5 to 11.5 points are a perfect 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS since 20003. The line has moved up two full points from the opening line despite even 50-50 betting on each team. Although Tennessee is back in the playoffs, they have not done well noting a 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a home win over the last 2 seasons; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. SIM Matching Game Situations Tennessee 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards. Kansas CITY 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. 23-10-2 ATS when gaining 150 rushing and 250 passing yards. Methodologies and Subscriptions If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017.
So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018. The annual will cost you just $5.47 per day and average about $1.37 per play.
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