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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-09-17 | Thunder +4.5 v. Nuggets | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC won and covered the first two meetings with Denver this season, and these teams will face each other again in the regular-season finale on Wednesday. Those victories pushed the Thunder mark in the series to 10-1 SU and 9-2 vs. the pointspread vs. the Nuggets since March of 2014. OKC Gs Russell Westbrook (34 ppg vs. the Nuggets) and Victor Oladipo (21 ppg) have provided the scoring this season. Both teams are motivated, but prefer to shade the Thunder’s series dominance. |
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04-08-17 | Jazz v. Blazers +1 | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland has had a similar season to last year, when the Blazers got off to a poor start (15-24 SU) and then finished strong to grab a playoff spot. Portland was 24-35 before going on a 14-3 SU rampage starting on March 2. Blazer Gs Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 52 ppg in March, with McCollum shooting 47% from beyond the arc. Utah is likely locked into a first-round 4 or 5 finish with home floor the only unknown. The Jazz, who have some injuries and played last night at home against Minnesota, are only 2-6 vs. the points this season on the road when unrested. |
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04-08-17 | Pacers -4.5 v. Magic | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana is 18-3 SU over the last few seasons against Orlando, covering 10 of the last 11 in this one-sided series. The Pacers had lost 6 of their last 7 SU overall through Monday to fall out of playoff position, so every game will be a “must-win” down the stretch for Nate McMillan’s Pacers. Orlando has shown few signs of life since early February, as the Magic were only 7-17 SU and 8-16 vs. the points from Feb. 2-April 3. Pacer F Paul George has scored 29 ppg and shot 49% in his last 10 through Monday, and the Magic’s poor play at home (12-25-1 vs. number prior to hosting Brooklyn Thursday) are solid reasons to shade visitor. |
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04-07-17 | Wolves +11 v. Jazz | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Streaky Minnesota has dropped 7 of its last 9 SU and 8 of 9 vs. the number prior to hosting Portland in a makeup game on Monday. While the Timberwolves are out of the playoff picture, Utah is in a battle for the home-court edge in an impending first-round matchup with the Clippers. Jazz PG George Hill (groin; missed 3 straight through April 3) joined PF Derrick Favors (out since March 6) on the injury list. Still, F Gordon Hayward and C Rudy Gobert have combined for 37 ppg and 19 rpg since the All Star break, while Utah continues to play some of the best defense in the league (96 ppg L10 through April 3). Jazz will remember dropping a 107-80 decision in Salt Lake City in most recent series meeting played March 1. T-wolf C Karl-Anthony Towns (21 pts., 15 rebs.) and F Andrew Wiggins (20 pts.) led the way. Hayward has made just 38% vs. Minny this season. Looks like both Favors and Hill are still out, so I am taking the points. |
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04-07-17 | Hawks +14 v. Cavs | Top | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Strange split of series this season with road team winning each of first two, most recently a wild 135-130 Cleveland win at Philips Arena on March 3 that was an early warning sign of Cleveland’s ongoing post-All-Star break defensive woes. Maybe some relief is on the way for Cavs, as J.R. Smith (14-for-25 from 3-point range over the last three games entering the week) finally finding his rhythm, so there’s a little less pressure on the Cavs’ shoddy defense. But LeBron played a season-high 52 minutes in Game 76 on Sunday (a double-OT win over Indiana), and the defense couldn’t stop a fairly simple pin-down action from freeing up Paul George (causing some serious friction between James and Tristan Thompson) that could have won the game for Pacers. A lot of points to cover especially since Boston lost again last night to these same Hawks. |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Quick turnaround from make up game on Monday at Target Center, when Minnesota snapped the Blazers’ winning streak thanks to Blazer C Karl-Anthony Towns’ 34 pts. and 12 boards. Revenge is in the air, as recent trajectories of these sides have been time zones apart. Portland took a 14-3 SU mark its last 17 into the week to move into the final spot in the West playoff race, while sagging T-wolves were just 3-7 SU and vs. spread last 10 after Monday’s victory. And while Blazers still in playoff drive, Minny resorting to experimentation, as Tom Thibodeau has been playing both of his PGs, Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn, at the same time in the past week, with mixed results. Meanwhile, let’s note Minnesota has officially become the NBA version of the Buffalo Bills, with its playoff drought now reaching 13 seasons (since Kevin Garnett led the T-wolves to the West finals vs. the Shaq-Kobe Lakers in 2004...where did the years go?), the second-longest in NBA history |
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04-06-17 | Wizards -5 v. Knicks | 106-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Entering the week, Washington had slumped a bit, with three straight losses at the end of a western road trip dropping them to the 4 line in the East playoff standings. Wiz out on road again tonight, but host Knicks haven’t offered much resistance in three previous meetings, losing them all, with Washington series win and cover streak now at five dating to last season. Not even sure who might be on the floor for New York; we know Derrick Rose (injured) and Joakim Noah (suspension) won’t be available, and not sure about Carmelo Anthony, nursing a sore back entering the week. Still a chance for Washington to move up to the third seed in East playoffs, while Knicks’ only motivation is to get done with the season. |
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04-06-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Magic | 107-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick turnaround from Saturday at Barclays Center, when Brooklyn won 121-111, as Brook Lopez dominated with 30 points and Trevor Booker added 23 for hosts. The Magic’s bench issues continued in that loss, when their starting lineup was a plus-10, but they were outscored by 20 points in 26 minutes with at least one reserve on the floor. That result was just one example of the improved recent play of Nets, who took a 12-4 spread mark their last 16 into Tuesday vs. the Sixers, plus a 7-6 SU mark their last 13. Not to mention a better SU mark in March than the Cavs! All not too shabby for an embattled outfit that won SU just once from Dec. 28 thru the end of February. Meanwhile, Orlando playing no defense in the 4-game SU losing streak it took into the week, conceding a whopping 121 ppg in those losses. |
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04-06-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Pacers | 89-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This series has been about as one-sided this season as Joe Frazier’s 1st-round KO of Dave Zyglewicz in Houston back in 1969, with Milwaukee romping to easy wins and covers in first three meetings. Indiana not closer than 14 in any of those, when Bucks blistered the nets for a combined 36 triples in the three games, and near 50% shooting beyond the arc. Check standings, as Milwaukee might have clinched a playoff berth earlier in week. But if Bucks haven’t, they’ve shown more lately than Pacers, whose recent 1-6 stretch, in which they allowed 114 points per 100 possessions, took Paul George & Co. from sixth place to ninth in the East playoff queue. And don’t forget this season’s one-sided series trends. |
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04-05-17 | Warriors -7.5 v. Suns | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The scoreline here solely depends upon Golden State’s focus. Not sure Warriors are going to be especially motivated against a team they destroyed 138-109 in last meeting way back on Dec. 3. But counting upon Golden State losing focus is a flimsy argument to support the Suns, who have done a good job of tanking the past few weeks and who take a 12-game losing streak into tonight’s game at the Talking Stick Arena. Even with Marquesse Chriss shooting better and Devin Booker scoring 70 points in a recent loss at Boston, the Suns rank 28th offensively over that12- game losing streak that has put them even with the Lakers (in the win column) for the second-best lottery odds. So unless Warriors (on 11-0 SU run into last night vs. T-wolves) simply don’t show up, hard-pressed to take Phoenix. |
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04-05-17 | Thunder +2 v. Grizzlies | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After getting lambasted by Memphis by 34 back on Dec. 29 when Russell Westbrook was “held” to 21 points, Ok City has won and covered twice without much problem vs. Griz, with Westbrook notching a pair of triple-doubles and scoring 31 ppg in those successes. Granted, Memphis has some motivation here, as Griz still in a position to leapfrog Thunder into the 6th playoff seed in West (and likely avoid another matchup vs. Spurs, which would be their fourth meeting in the playoffs since 2010-11 season!). But right now not willing to trust David Fizdale’s crew, especially with Marc Gasol (foot) missing the last five games into this week, and the Memphis machine really grinding to a halt when Mike Conley goes to the bench (Griz outscored by 25 in the 55 minutes Conley has been on the bench since Gasol’s injury). Griz looking fragile minus Gasol in recent road losses to lowly Kings and Lakers. |
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04-05-17 | Raptors +1 v. Pistons | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Recent 2-9 SU skid has put Detroit on the brink of playoff elimination. The early stages of that slump included an 87-75 home loss to Toronto on St. Patrick’s Day when Pistons could only shoot 34.9% from the floor and wasted a 22-rebound effort from Andre Drummond (partly because Drummond scored only 8 points and, as is his bent, missed all four of his FT attempts). Looking for another reason why Detroit is slumping? Since the All Star break, the Pistons have been outscored by an amazing 36 points per 100 possessions in the first six minutes of the first quarter, as none of their various starting lineups has worked. No wonder Stan Van Gundy is looking like a condemned man in recent weeks. |
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04-05-17 | Heat v. Hornets -1.5 | 112-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s fair to ask if Miami’s great uptick might be over, as Heat couldn’t take advantage of a pair of games last week vs.Knicks (who won at AA Arena) and lost again at home on Sunday vs. Denver. Which has left Heat clinging by its fingernails to the East’s last playoff spot entering the week. Recent Miami downturn might be more than a blip, as it has also coincided with absence of Dion Waiters (ankle), whose return date is still unknown. Meanwhile, Charlotte making a late run at a playoff spot in East by winning 7 of last 9 SU prior to last night vs. Wizards. Hornets have scored 114.5 points per 100 possessions over that 9-game ascent, the second best offensive stretch they’ve had in four years under HC Steve Clifford. Kemba Walker (24.2 ppg that stretch) has led the way, but bench contributions from Frank Kaminsky and Marco Belinelli have been critical, and Jeremy Lamb provided a big lift on Sunday vs. his former employer Ok City. |
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04-04-17 | Blazers +7 v. Jazz | 87-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland has roared into the last West playoff spot in recent super-charged 14-3 SU run. And even with last night’s make-up game at Minnesota causing them a bit of a scheduling distraction, would rather not buck the hot Blazers, who have continued to win thru the recent leg injury sustained by C Jusuf Nurkic. Portland also 5-2 SU its last seven vs. above-.500 teams, and dynamics a lot different than the last time Damian Lillard & Co. visited Salt Lake City right before the All-Star break on Feb. 15, when Jazz were flying high and Lillard and CJ McCollum were a combined 11 of 38 from floor in Utah’s 111-88 romp. In early April, Jazz a tougher sell with George Hill hurting again (Utah 31-14 SU with him in lineup and just 16-14 SU without him), and Gordon Hayward looking a bit tired, as he has been held below 20 points in six of last eight. |
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04-04-17 | Bulls -3.5 v. Knicks | 91-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While we have been burned more than once since Halloween by trusting the bipolar Bulls, cannot envision them losing all three this season vs. the sad-sack Knicks, who are now minus Derrick Rose (shut down for the final week with a meniscus tear in his knee) and might be without Carmelo (sore back) for tonight, not to mention Joakim Noah being sidelined by suspension. Chicago entered the week with a tenuous hold on the 7 seed in the East, with the very real prospect of a first-round series vs. a Cleveland side that Bulls have surprisingly beaten all four meetings this season. Hmmm, maybe the Cavs should be worried? But only the St. Louis Blues have had an easier schedule down the stretch than the Bulls, whose last five foes have a combined .331 win percentage this season. So feel relatively comfy trusting Chicago at a short price |
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04-04-17 | Raptors v. Pacers -2.5 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick rematch from Toronto’s 111-100 win north of the border last Friday, the second win and cover in as many tries for Raptors vs. Indiana this season. That result was part of a current 9-2 SU run for Toronto that has solidified Raps in the 3rd slot in East playoff queue. All of this minus Kyle Lowry, who might return before end of regular season from wrist problems. But speaking of playoff queues, Pacers not even sure they will be included after debilitating current 4-game losing has them on the outside, looking in, entering the last week of the campaign. Injuries to Glenn Robinson, Rodney Stuckey and Al Jefferson have sapped their depth, but the bad defense has started with the starters. Over these last seven games, they’ve allowed 123 points per 100 possessions with George, Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young on the floor. But with playoff extinction looming, expect Indiana to draw a line in the sand tonight. |
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04-04-17 | Hornets +4 v. Wizards | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Don’t sleep on Charlotte, which is making one last run at a playoff spot by winning 7 of its last 9, and now within striking distance of Miami for the 8 spot in the East. Fueling the surge is Kemba Walker, who has tallied 27.3 ppg over the past six games, offsetting the preceding four-game stretch in which he only averaged 15.3 ppg. Into the week, only five games separate the fifth-seeded Bucks and the 11th-seeded Pistons, but Hornets are suddenly playing as well as anyone in that seven-team scrum. Meanwhile, Wiz flattening out a bit, on their first three-game losing streak since mid-November. They got chewed apart by the Clippers and Warriors at the end of recent road trip and are set to have a below-average defense for the first time in five years. Washington has allowed 111.2 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break after allowing only 105.0 before mid-February. There’s a case to be made for surging Charlotte. |
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04-02-17 | Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5 | 117-110 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans had covered 7 of the last 9 at the Smoothie King Center, and the addition of C DeMarcus Cousins has had something to do with the surge. PF Anthony Davis and Cousins give the Pels a dominating frontline, and the Bulls have been much weaker on the boards since trading F Taj Gibson (6.9 rpg) and shutting down Dwyane Wade, a solid rebounding guard. Before the trade, the Bulls were outrebounding foes by 4 per game. Since the trade they’ve been beaten on the boards by 2 per game. Bull C Robin Lopez and 2nd-year PF Bobby Portis are decent role players, but they won’t have Wade (22 pts, 5 rebs in 1st meeting) or Gibson (15 and 15 vs. the Pels) this time around. |
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04-02-17 | Pacers +9 v. Cavs | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After dropping the first game with Indiana while playing without rest and without LeBron James, Cleveland has bounced back to win and cover two ensuing meetings. The Pacers had dropped 5 straight spread decisions on the road before starting this 3-game road trip in Memphis on Wednesday, and the Cavs are feeling great pressure at the top of the table in the East from Boston. However, not sure Cleveland can just flip the switch unless Cavs play better defense (allowing 110 ppg and being out rebounded by 4 per game since the break). |
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04-02-17 | Hornets v. Thunder -4.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlotte won the first meeting with OKC this season, notching a 123-112 decision in Charlotte on Jan. 4. The victory came despite Hornet PG Kemba Walker making just 5 of 13 shots and being outscored by Thunder counterpart Russell Westbrook 33-20 (Westbrook added 15 rebounds and 8 assists). Charlotte G Nicolas Batum (28 pts.) and C Frank Kaminsky (17 pts., 6 rebs. off the bench) helped turn the tide that night. This game is in OKC, however, where the Thunder are 21-9 as a favorite and where they have won and covered 8 straight against the Hornets. |
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04-02-17 | Celtics -6.5 v. Knicks | 110-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston likely to remember the last meeting between these two, as New York went into the TD Garden and scored a convincing 117-106 victory behind Knick G Derrick Rose (30 points). The part the Celtics might remember most clearly is the music blasting from the N.Y. locker room after that game. HC Brad Stevens won’t let Boston forget that or the pathetic job the Celtics did on the boards that night, allowing the Knicks to build a 57-33 rebounding edge. The Celtics are 23-15 vs. the points on the road and fighting for the best record in the Eastern Conference. |
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04-01-17 | Suns v. Blazers -11 | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Suns waived the white flag in early March and shut down some of their veteran assets, Portland has marched into the final playoff spot by winning 11 of 14 games last month. That surge corresponds roughly with the acquisition of C Jusuf Nurkic from Denver. The 7-0, 280 Nurkic has given the Blazers a different look inside, scoring 14 ppg and grabbing 10 rpg in his 18 games with Portland. Phoenix has been content to lose, build up more lottery balls, and let young G Devin Booker see just how much he can score when given the green light (the answer is 70 pts. on 40 shots vs. Boston 8 days ago). |
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04-01-17 | Kings +12 v. Wolves | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sacramento hasn’t won many games since trading DeMarcus Cousins, but the Kings have been competitive lately, logging a 6-4-2 spread mark in their last 12 through their March 26 miracle rally to beat the Clippers. The Kings remarkably erased an 18-point, 4th-Q lead vs. L.A. Sunday. Teams leading by 18 in the final Q this season were 359-0 prior to Sacto’s victory. Meanwhile, Minnesota is proving to be one of the bigger busts in the league. After being touted as a breakthrough team with the young Timberwolf talent being combined with vet HC Tom Thibodeau, Minny was the darling of the preseason prognosticators. It hasn’t worked out that way. Twolves are struggling with a 3-7 SU and spread run in their last 10. |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago hasn’t given up on nabbing the final playoff spot in the East, as a 5-1 SU and spread surge through March 29th brought the Bulls to within a half-game of Miami for the 8th spot as of Monday. Atlanta has had injury problems, with PF Paul Millsap (18 ppg, 7.7 rpg; knee), G Kent Bazemore, and defensive specialist F Thabo Sefolosha (groin) down for periods. However, all 3 of those starters might be ready to go for this game. Favor Hawk side that is 9-1 SU in last 10 vs. Chicago. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets +9.5 v. Warriors | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston just hosted Golden State on Tuesday, and the Rockets are coming off a game last night in Portland. That scheduling hasn’t bothered Houston, however, as they’ve covered 10 of 14 this season playing without rest. The Warriors have certainly perked up since the middle of March, winning 9 straight with 7 covers in their last 9 of those victories. The Warriors have been doing it with defense, holding their last 6 foes to just 93 ppg. After Warrior games averaged 223 ppg before the All-Star break, HC Steve Kerr’s team has slowed the pace, with scoring down to 209 ppg total. That downshift has resulted in a 15-1 “under” run for Golden State games from Feb. 25-March 27. Warriors feeling heat from the Spurs, but Houston’s 9-1 mark as a road dog this season is impressive, and the now-injured F Kevin Durant led G.S. with 39 & 32 pts. in first two meetings with the Rockets. |
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03-31-17 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | 100-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The home team has won and covered both meetings this season, and OKC is 7-1 SU and vs. the points hosting the Spurs the last 4+ regular seasons at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. To be clear, the Thunder had Kevin Durant for most of those successes, and San Antonio has managed to win a few playoff games at this site the last few seasons. The Spurs have played well on the road this season (28-9 SU), but OKC is 27-10 SU at home (25-12 vs. the points), and the Thunder catch the Spurs coming off significant home games facing Cleveland and Golden State earlier this week. |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day These two played for the first time this season just 12 days ago at the Air Canada Centre, and Toronto cruised to a 25-point victory fueled by a 51-33 rebounding advantage and a 44%-26% edge in three-point shooting. The Raptors have won 9 of the last 10 at home against Indiana, covering 7 of those meetings, and are 5-1 SU overall in their last 6 games. Indiana was in a 3-way logjam for the 5-thru-7 spots in the Eastern playoff pecking order on Monday, so with Toronto in a fight with Washington for the 3-4 slots, this is a potential first-round playoff match up for both. Raptor G DeMar DeRozan has regained his shooting stroke, and F Serge Ibaka starting to fit in nicely with his new team. |
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03-30-17 | Rockets -110 v. Blazers | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston has pounded Portland on both previous occasions this season in similar fashion (126-109 & 130-114). Those games were both in November, and James Harden (32 ppg in those wins) clearly outplayed Damian Lillard. Blazers have taken flight since and are fighting to make the playoffs, while Rockets now look locked into No. 3 playoff seed in West. But Mike D’Antoni’s bunch (won 7 of last 8 SU into Tuesday vs. Warriors) showing no signs of slowing down, so wouldn’t figure on Harden and others to take a breather until right at the end of the reg.-season schedule in two weeks. Prefer this season’s Houston-oriented series trends. |
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03-30-17 | Clippers -11 v. Suns | 124-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers haven’t had much trouble vs. the Suns this season, winning and covering all three handily, including 10-point win in the desert in most-recent meeting on Feb. 1. Clips scoring almost 117 ppg in those wins. So even with L.A.’s recurring (and puzzling) bouts of indifference, we are hard-pressed to recommend a Suns team that has appeared to be in dump mode ever since Gs Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight went down with injuries earlier in March. L.A.’s inconsistencies (such as the blown lead on Sunday vs. Sacto) more than a bit troubling, but Clips have something to play for (4th seed in West) and Phoenix doesn’t. Series trends and margins in Clipper wins (last eight by nine or more) suggest this is one spot we can trust Doc Rivers’ bunch. |
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03-30-17 | Cavs v. Bulls +6 | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago has curiously dominated Cleveland this season, winning and covering all three meetings. And LeBron only missed one of those three losses (out for most-recent setback on Feb. 25 due to illness). D-Wade, however, now out for Bulls after scoring almost 20 ppg in first three clashes. It might be time for the Cavs to be really concerned about their defense, which has allowed four of their last five opponents to shoot better than 50 percent and ranks 29th since the All-Star break. Cavs were destroyed in the paint (70-30) in March 22 loss in Denver and couldn’t slow down John Wall in last Saturday’s loss to Washington, but they’ve also forced just 10 turnovers per 100 possessions (the lowest rate in the league) since the break. Suddenly, it’s no sure thing the Cavs can flip the switch. |
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03-30-17 | Lakers v. Wolves -10.5 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let’s see if Minny is up for a payback after blowing a late lead at Staples Center last Friday. Not only did Jordan Clarkson score a career-high 35 points for Lake Show in that one, but he and D’Angelo Russell had a positive plus-minus (plus-6) together for just the second time in their last 27 games. Such embarrassment should spark an answer from the T-wolves, even though they had lost six in a row amid growing defensive concerns into Tuesday at Indiana. But this looks like a proper spot for Tom Thibodeau’s troops to take out some frustration, which Minny did the last time LA visited Target Center (125-99 T-wolves blowout back on Nov. 13). Last six Lake Show road losses by a staggering 25 ppg! |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have had worse records in recent years, but that is faint praise for the continued dysfunctions this season. New York still doesn’t have a win streak longer than one game in calendar 2017, and now Joakim Noah’s 20-game suspension only adds to the woes in the first year of a four-year, $72 million contract that was looking ill-advised (to put it mildly) well before the suspension. Miami getting a real gift in its quest to make the playoffs with back-to-back games vs. Knicks. Would dismiss NY’s long-ago win at AA Arena on Dec. 6, back when Knicks were actually trying and before Heat took flight in mid-January. Though Miami had lost 3 of 4 entering the week, shooting only 30% from beyond arc, while Goran Dragic has shot 34 percent overall (with almost as many turnovers as assists) in that stretch. Heat made up for the bad shooting with 25 second-chance points in recent win over Phoenix, but needs to start making shots (and get Dion Waiters back to active duty) as Miami tries to hold onto the eighth and last playoff seed in the East. |
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03-29-17 | Hornets v. Raptors -6 | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sandwiched around a couple of narrow Toronto wins this season over Charlotte was a startling 35-point Hornets blowout back on Jan. 20. Raptors have since avenged that loss and entered the week on a 5-game SU win streak (4-1 vs. line), all minus G Kyle Lowry, who remains sidelined with a bad wrist, as Dwane Casey’s bunch not giving up in quest for something better than a 4 seed in the East playoffs. The recent 5- game Toronto uptick featured its best stretch of defense (93.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) of the season. Though the rotation is much different (no Lowry, new faces, young guys getting time) than it has been previously, they’re still much better when they go to their bench. With the improved defense, depth and versatility, a healthy return by Lowry for the playoffs would make the Raps a team to watch in the postseason. |
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03-29-17 | Hawks v. 76ers +1.5 | 99-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has had no trouble with Philly this season, winning and covering handily (closest margin 17) in three earlier romps. Those, however, were all with PF Paul Millsap available, and since he’s out until the weekend at the earliest, must note Hawks were 0-8 SU in his absence, scoring 17 ppg fewer without him, into last night vs. the Suns. Atlanta (which also lost 7 in a row into last night vs. Phoenix) could see its depth further compromised with Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore also hurting. If Philly is to avenge the earlier results, it is catching the Hawks at the right time. Sixers, at 17-5 vs. points last 22 into last night vs. Nets, s0 there is a technical case to be made for Sixers. |
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03-28-17 | Nuggets v. Blazers -130 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lots at stake here between the top contenders for the last West playoff berth. Thus, it’s extremely important for both sides, as Portland (which has won 2 of the first 3 vs. Denver) also gets the tiebreaker over the Nuggets with a win in this one. Blazers have hit overdrive the past couple of weeks with wins and covers in six of their last seven, as what was the league’s worst defense through December ranks seventh this month and has allowed less than a point per possession in 277 minutes with its two starting bigs--Noah Vonleh and Jusuf Nurkic--on the floor together since Nurkic arrived before the break. That upgraded defense has also resulted in four straight “unders” for Portland. |
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03-28-17 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After being outgunned by Houston in a wild 2-OT shootout at Oakland on Dec. 1, Golden State returned the favor on Jan. 20 at Toyota Center when rolling by 17, as Kevin Durant scored 32 and James Harden was “held” to 17 points. K-D, of course, is out at least another week (or perhaps longer according to the latest reports from HC Steve Kerr) as he nurses his bad knee, but his unavailability has prompted one of the top “totals” streaks in the NBA this season, as the Warriors are “under” 15-1 their last 16, roughly coinciding with Durant’s absence. Golden State, which slumped a few weeks ago in its early stages minus Durant, now enters Toyota Center on a 7-game SU win streak. |
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03-28-17 | Wolves v. Pacers -4.5 | 115-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana has yet to lock down a spot in the East playoffs, but did at least enter the week in a postseason position. Now the Pacers are gifted a reeling Minnesota side that enters Bankers Life Field house on a 6-game SU and spread skid. What has gone wrong for the T-wolves, whose current losing streak is also the longest in the career of HC Tom Thibodeau? Blame a tough March schedule and a sagging defense that has allowed opponents to score 120 points per 100 possessions in the slump. Can Indiana take advantage? The Pacers had better, because their next five games are against teams currently with winning records, and Indiana is only 11-18 SU vs. those sorts this term. Nate McMillan also has bench issues at the moment with Al Jefferson and Rodney Stuckey both hurting. But Jeff Teague (20.8 ppg on 53% FGs the last four) is providing consistent production, Myles Turner had a couple of big games over the weekend, and their starting lineup has been solid (plus-9.7 points per 100 possessions) over the last 10 games. |
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03-27-17 | Thunder -1 v. Mavs | 92-91 | Push | 0 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams split first two meetings along home court lines. Not long ago, Dallas did get Ok City by 15 at AA Center on March 5 when Russell Westbrook was “held” to 29 & 6. Which was a nice accomplishment by Mavs after Westbrook lit them up for 45 in Thunder’s 11-point win and cover at the Peake on Jan. 26. Ok City had won and covered five straight before running headfirst into Warriors on March 20, and Westbrook’s recent brilliance has put the West fifth seed in play for Ok City. After a six-game stretch in which he averaged 44.0 points but only 8 assists as the Thunder lost 4 of 6, jeopardizing his chances of finishing the season with a triple-double average, Westbrook tallied 26.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 14.4 apg during the five game winning streak. That sort of production can reverse this season’s series home trends. |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -5 | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two played a classic double-OT game at the “Q” on Jan. 21 when the Spurs survived by 3. Kawhi Leonard was the star that night with 41 points, one of his staggering 25 games of 30+ points thru March 20. Even with Kevin Love back in the fold, not sure about backing Cavs in revenge role, considering they had covered just 4 of last 13 thru March 20 and are just 2-8 as road dog this term. It won’t matter in this game, but Cavs fans in Charlotte, Chicago, Boston, Atlanta and Miami all need to be aware that the games their favorite team is playing in those cities are part of four remaining back-to-backs for the champs (though maybe that Boston game will mean something in regard to the No. 1 seed in the East), and that several starters are likely to rest those nights, as was case March 18 vs. Clippers. |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double-revenge game for Toronto, which is chasing Boston for the Atlantic Division title and still hasn’t salted away the homecourt edge in the first round of the playoffs. The Raptors have played much-improved defense since the All-Star break, holding foes to 97.6 ppg in the 13 games since, compared with 104.3 ppg prior to that. Conversely, Orlando is playing it fast and loose, losing 5 of its last 6 through March 21 against the points while yielding 115 ppg. The Magic, who have no incentive to win games, might not have C Nikola Vucevic due to ankle and Achilles problems, and he’s been their leading scorer vs. the Raptors |
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03-26-17 | Blazers -6.5 v. Lakers | 97-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After years of taking their lumps against the Lakers, Portland has completely turned the tables on the once-great L.A. franchise and has won 11 straight in the series (9-2 vs. the points). The young Laker backcourt has been hurt by Blazer Gs C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, who combined for 47 ppg in the first 3 meetings this season. McCollum shot 55% in those games, leading Portland to a 50.4% mark as a team. Los Angeles is yielding 118 ppg and 50% in its last 10 games. |
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03-26-17 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Nuggets | 115-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Much has changed since Denver won at New Orleans way back in October, when the Nuggets scored a 107-102 upset despite a 50-point game by Pelican PF Anthony Davis. Since then the leading scorer for the Nuggets that night, Jusuf Nurkic, was traded to Portland, and the Pels have acquired DeMarcus Cousins. New Orleans PG Jrue Holiday missed that game as well, and he’s been on form lately, helping guide New Orleans to a 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 spread mark in the last 10 games prior to hosting Memphis Tuesday. Nuggets just 5-5 SU and vs. the points in their last 10 at the Pepsi Center through March 21. |
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03-26-17 | Heat v. Celtics -5 | 108-112 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics are making the most of a critical late-season homestand and look to stay perfect in the stretch when they host the Miami Heat today. The Celtics weathered the storm of a 70-point performance by Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker in a 130-120 win Friday night, improving to 3-0 on their season-high six-game homestand. The streak has Boston one-half game behind first-place Cleveland in the Eastern Conference entering Saturday, but coach Brad Stevens wants a complete effort from his team after watching Booker make things interesting in the second half. |
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03-26-17 | Nets +7 v. Hawks | 107-92 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has been a money-burner at Philips Arena since mid-November, logging an 8-21 spread mark in its last 29 at home. One of those non-covers was a 110-105 victory over Brooklyn a few weeks ago (March 8), when Net backup G Sean Kilpatrick came off the bench with 27 points. Kilpatrick might be down with a hanstring injury, but PG Jeremy Lin should be available (he said his ankle twist wasn’t serious). Hawks can’t count on PG Dennis Schroder scoring 31 points as he did to lead all scorers in first goaround. Note Atlanta’s 19-28 mark as chalk this season through March 21. |
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03-25-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6.5 | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland won 8 of its last 10 through Monday to climb into the playoff conversation, just 1 game behind Denver for the final spot in the West. The Trail Blazers took the first meeting 95-89 behind an explosive 43-point game from G C.J. McCollum, winning in Minnesota without the services of star PG Damian Lillard. Lillard has since returned and is scoring 31 ppg and shooting 49% since the All-Star break. Minny is coming off a game last night in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and Timberwolves are just 2-19 SU and 6-14-1 vs. the spread at Portland the last few seasons. |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +2 v. Mavs | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Toronto Raptors are doing just fine without star point guard Kyle Lowry, and they may be able to climb the standings in the Eastern Conference for his probable return in the playoffs. They will aim for their fifth straight win and potentially seize third place in the East when they visit the Dallas Mavericks today. Behind another monster effort from DeMar DeRozan - who has reached the 40-point mark in back-to-back games - Toronto rallied from 15 points down to grab a 101-84 win at Miami on Thursday. The triumph gave the Raptors a 10-5 record since Lowry was sidelined with a wrist injury at the All-Star break. |
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03-25-17 | Knicks v. Spurs -15.5 | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Antonio Spurs still have a chance to catch the Golden State Warriors for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference but time is running out. The Spurs have little margin for error over the final 11 regular-season games and look to post their fourth consecutive victory when they host the New York Knicks today. San Antonio recorded a 97-90 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday and coach Gregg Popovich was pleased with the 23-point performance by power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. The Knicks have dropped four straight games and nine of 11 after falling 110-95 to the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday. |
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After L.A. took the first two meetings by handy margins, Utah turned the tables on the Clippers. The Jazz were leading the Northwest Division by 2½ games at the beginning of the last week, but hard-charging OKC is going to the whip in the stretch and putting pressure on them. The Jazz have PG George Hill, F Gordon Hayward and C Rudy Gobert all on the same page, but they might miss PF Derrick Favors matching up against Clip counterpart Blake Griffin. Also must note Utah’s 3-12 mark this season as a road dog. |
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03-24-17 | Wolves -6.5 v. Lakers | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams aren’t that far apart in the standings, but they are miles apart in terms of talent on hand. Since the All-Star break, Minnesota C Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 29 ppg and 14 rpg, F Andrew Wiggins 22 ppg, and PG Ricky Rubio 16 ppg and 11 apg. Rubio has suddenly found his shooting touch, clicking on 48% of his attempts in his last 10 games through Monday night’s action. Minny likely to be on a 4-game losing streak after absorbing double-digit losses against Boston, Miami and New Orleans before hosting San Antonio Tuesday. The Lakers have lost 8 straight at Staples Center, covering only as larger home dogs. Hungry Timberwolves will add to that misery. |
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03-24-17 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bulls | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia had covered 16 of its last 19 after getting the money at Orlando Monday, as Sixer PF Dario Saric has made a convincing case for being selected rookie of the year. Saric has averaged 20 pts. and 8 boards since the All-Star break, and Philly C Jahlil Okafor could be available after resting his sore knee for a few games. Chicago is just 22-31 as home chalk the last two seasons, while the Sixers are 10-4 this year as single-digit road dogs. The Bulls held sway in first two meetings this season, winning and covering at home and on the road, but G Dwyane Wade has since been declared out for the season, and he played an important role in earlier series victories (20 ppg, 57% vs. the Sixers). Sixers have lost 12 straight to the Bulls, but had covered 8 of last 9 road games this season prior to kicking off this road trip in Orlando Monday night. |
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03-19-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Spurs | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio hasn’t lost to Sacto in a few years, but isn’t exactly running roughshod over the Kings this season, either, as Spurs have failed to cover any of the first three meetings. That includes March 8 at Verizon Center after departure of Boogie Cousins, when Coach Pop’s bunch had to rally from 37-15 after 1st Q (largest 1st-Q deficit in S.A. history!) and down 28 in 2nd Q before finally collaring Sacto in late going. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge were rested that night, but Aldridge’s absence will now continue indefinitely as he undergoes a battery of tests for heart arrhythmia that could keep him out an extended period. Not greatly interested in laying another inflated price with Spurs, who had dropped six straight vs. line before being gifted with a shorthanded Golden State team on March 11. Though S.A. was effectively tied with Warriors for top playoff seed entering the week, Spurs have been winning a lot of close games lately. Not too keen to lay this sort of price. |
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03-19-17 | Blazers v. Heat -5.5 | 115-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami’s surge is almost becoming ‘72 Dolphins like, as Heat now 21-5 SU and 22-4 vs. line in last 26 thru March 14. Last Sunday’s close loss (but cover) at Indiana was the first time in that 26-game span that the SU and spread winners were different in a Miami game. Speaking of different, it is not the same Heat as the floundering version that lost by 7 at Portland way back on December 3, though remember that underrated Miami defense kept Damian Lillard & C.J. McCollum mostly in check that night, limiting them to combined 13 for 37 from floor. Both teams in pitched battles to squeeze into the back end of their respective conference playoff slots, though tech case more persuasive against Blazers, just 7-15 as road dog into March 14 at New Orleans |
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03-19-17 | Suns v. Pistons -10.5 | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just in the nick of time, Detroit looks to be developing a beachhead in East playoff chase, winning and covering 4 of last 5 through March 11 win over Knicks to hold the seventh slot in the traffic jam into this week for the final conference postseason invitations. Stan Van Gundy’s experiment with Tobias Harris as the sixth man also seems to have ended after Harris scored 23 points in the first half alone of that recent win over New York. Don’t want to completely dismiss improving Phoenix, whose 5-1 spread uptick was finally slowed in March 12 loss vs. desperate Portland. But also like long range revenge angle, as Pistons not likely to shoot a sickly 36% from the floor as was the case in their 7-point loss in the desert way back on November 7. |
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03-19-17 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | 99-105 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly still covering numbers (three straight after win over Lakers on March 12, improving spread mark to 12-3 last 15 prior to last Tuesday at Golden State), which Sixers have done on all three occasions this season vs. Boston, despite losing all of those SU vs. Celtics. That includes most-recent meeting on Feb. 15 at TD Garden, when Philly used 22 points from improving 6-10 Euro rookie import Dario Saric to stay within earshot. Still, Sixer technical case not airtight despite 23-8 home dog mark, as Boston a solid 23-13 vs. line on road into March 17 at Brooklyn, and Celtics still very much in a scrap with the East elite for the top four conference playoff seeds, all still up in the air into mid-March. |
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03-18-17 | Bucks v. Warriors -10.5 | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State had lost 5 of its last 7 SU prior to starting this 3-game homestand vs. Philly and Orlando. That tailspin, which not coincidentally corresponds almost directly to the injury to allstar F Kevin Durant, has the Warriors in danger of losing the top seed in the West. Golden State needed every one of Durant’s 33 points to hold on for a 124-121 victory at Milwaukee on Nov. 19. Golden State was 1-9 vs. the number last 10 through March 13. Still, would rather lay reasonable number than count on Buck side that’s 8-14 as a road dog. |
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03-18-17 | Jazz v. Bulls +6 | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah F Gordon Hayward had an unusually poor shooting night (3 of 15) and was held to just 8 pts. back on Nov. 17 when these two first met this season. Look for the Jazz to turn the tables on Chicago this time around. Utah is 8-4 SU in its last 12 road games, and the Jazz have regained the services of PG George Hill after a brief absence. Chicago played in Washington last night, and the Bulls are just 1-4 this season vs. the number at home in 2nd of back-to-back games. |
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03-18-17 | Cavs +3.5 v. Clippers | 78-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland will well remember Clippers sailing to a 113-94 victory at Quicken Loans Arena back on Dec. 1. LeBron James made just 5 of 14 shots and only 6 of 11 FTs, while the Clipper Bench out scored the Cav reserves 46-28. Cleveland is feeling heat from Boston and Washington in the East, and it’s imperative that the Cavs have a successful road trip. This 4-game swing starts with a victory over Los Angeles. |
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03-17-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston faced the “twin towers” version of New Orleans on Feb. 23 and wasn’t impressed. The Rockets scored a 129-99 blowout victory in C DeMarcus Cousins’ debut with the Pelicans. N.O. has begun to adjust to the changes since then, however, as the Pels had a 4-1-1 spread record in their last 6 through. Cousins and F Anthony Davis have combined for 46 ppg and 23 rpg in their last 5 through March 13, and PG Jrue Holiday has dished 8 apg in that span (a bit above his seasonal avg.). The addition of NBA vet G Jordan Crawford on a 10-day deal appears a coup for the Pelicans, as he scored 16 ppg and shot 56% on his threes in his first 3 games. |
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03-17-17 | Raptors v. Pistons -4 | 87-75 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has been making the most of home court the last six weeks, covering 10 of 12 at the Palace prior to hosting Utah Wednesday. Pistons have held foes to 99 ppg at home, and top scorer F Tobias Harris didn’t appear to be hampered by a sore knee in scoring a season-high 28 pts. vs. New York Saturday. Toronto has hit a bit of a swoon, dropping 3 of 4 SU and vs. the points prior to hosting Dallas Monday, as absence of G Kyle Lowry might’ve begun to take a toll. Raptor star DeMar DeRozan has been held to 20 ppg and 40.7% in his last 5 games, and F DeMarre Carroll missed action recently with a sore ankle. |
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03-17-17 | Bulls v. Wizards -7 | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago took first meeting vs. Washington, but that was back on Nov. 12, before Washington put things together and went 34-8 from Dec. 8 through March 12. The Wizards won the next two against the Bulls, although Chicago covered at the Verizon Center on Jan. 10. Washington has cooled off at home in the last month, covering only 3 of last 9 as host prior to facing Dallas Wednesday after ripping to a 14-1 spread mark in previous 15. Still, the Bulls had dropped 5 in a row SU and against the point spread through Sunday, scoring just 90 ppg and shooting 40.7%. Trust Wizard team that’s caught Boston and is breathing down Cleveland’s neck for the top spot in the East a bit more at this stage. |
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03-17-17 | Mavs v. 76ers +5.5 | 74-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Return to action of C Jahlil Okafor and sizzling shooting of rookie PF Dario Saric sparked three straight covers for Philly, including a SU road win at the Lakers through. The Sixers have had a few days off since visiting Golden State on Tuesday. This will be Dallas’ first game as a road favorite this season; so must give considerable weight to Philly’s remarkable 23-8 home dog mark. |
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03-16-17 | Magic +14 v. Warriors | 92-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kevin Durant was still in the frame for the Warriors when they won by 20 at Amway Center on Jan. 22. Though the game wasn’t quite as easy as the scoreline looked, as Orlando was ahead until early in the 3rd Q when Golden State went on a 42-19 run to seal the outcome. Those sorts of spurts aren’t happening lately, however, for the Durant-less Warriors, who had covered just one of their last ten into Tuesday’s game vs. Philly, with the resultant offensive dropoff resulting in 8-1 “under” mark last seven thru March 13. Orlando not helpless and has covered 7 of 9 as a road dog of more than 9 points. This game could get very interesting in the Magic's, especially since the price floated into the teens. |
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03-16-17 | Jazz +7 v. Cavs | 83-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland not a reliable proposition in recent weeks, as Cavs had lost SU in five and dropped six vs. line in nine-game stretch into rematch with Detroit on Tuesday. The hoped-for reinforcement on defense that Andrew Bogut was supposed to provide went up in smoke when the big Aussie broke his leg in his first minute of action in Cleveland on March 6 vs. the Heat. Now LeBron & friends hit a hot Utah side that has won 7 of 10, and they also topped Cavs by 8 in Salt Lake City on Jan. 10 when Jazz held Cleveland to mere 36% from floor, and Gordon Hayward scored 28. |
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03-16-17 | Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 | 123-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite good home results lately, Russell Westbrook’s one-man show is suddenly not enough for Thunder to win on the road. Ok City couldn’t beat Portland on March 7 despite 58 points from Westbrook, and had lost 7 straight on the road prior to visiting Brooklyn Tuesday. And Westbrook’s 36 were not nearly enough to overcome Toronto at the Peake back on November 9, when the Raptors won by 10 behind DeMar DeRozan’s 37. Toronto still minus G Kyle Lowry (wrist), but DeRozan is doing everything he can to try to haul the Raps out of a potential second-round encounter with defending champ Cleveland. DeMar is scoring 27 ppg since the All-Star break sans Lowry. |
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03-15-17 | Bucks +8 v. Clippers | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are teetering on the edge of the top eight in the Eastern Conference and can't afford to go on a losing streak. The Los Angeles Clippers, who host the Bucks today, are more secure in the top eight of the West but are fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round and won’t make things easy on Milwaukee. The Bucks won six straight to get back into the top eight and move to the verge of a .500 record before falling off in a 113-93 loss at the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday in the opener of a six-game road trip. Milwaukee snapped a three-game losing streak in the series with a 112-101 home win on March 3. |
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03-15-17 | Kings v. Suns -5.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maybe Sacto wouldn’t have blown a 28-point lead on March 8 vs. Spurs had Boogie Cousins still been in the fold. Then again, imagine how all sharp objects would have to have been removed from the locker room had Cousins been around for that collapse. With Boogie in tow and scoring 24, Kings won by 19 in the desert on opening night, though Suns returned favor on Feb. 3 at Golden 1 Center behind Devin Booker’s 33 points. Thru March 12, Sacto still hadn’t won SU since its first game without Cousins out of the All-Star break, while Phoenix now competing briskly, covering 5 of last 7. Yet another ex-Kentucky G, Tyler Ulis, is now making big contributions for Phoenix, hitting the game-winner in recent upset of Celtics. |
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03-15-17 | Wolves v. Celtics -6 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves haven't beaten the Celtics in Boston in their last 10 tries and the hosts should be well-rested after an easy 100-80 victory over Chicago on Sunday. Isaiah Thomas needed only 24 minutes to score a game-high 22 points as Boston successfully started a closing stretch in which it plays 11 of its final 16 games at home. |
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03-15-17 | Pelicans v. Heat -6 | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Though we suspect improved efforts might be forthcoming from New Orleans, second nights of back-to-backs have not been the time to support the Pels (who hosted Blazers last night), just 4-8 vs. line in that role, and 2-6 on road. Plus the aforementioned adjustment phase is still ongoing, with Boogie Cousins fitting into a new team. In truth, however, I don’t need to knock New Orleans to make a case for Miami, which has continued its hot streak well beyond the All-Star break and has catapulted Erik Spoelstra into Coach of the Year discussions. Heat on 21-5 SU and 22-4 spread runs ; interestingly, the four losses are vs. Magic (twice!), Sixers, Mavs and Pacers, with plenty of playoff teams falling victim. |
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03-14-17 | Pacers -3 v. Knicks | 81-87 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have beaten the Pacers in 2 of 3 this season, but New York has not been able to put together a meaningful win streak since Thanksgiving time. Or make that any win streak, as the Knicks haven’t won two in a row SU since just before Christmas! Indeed, only the Nets and Lakers have had worse SU marks since Xmas. So not much of a stretch to prefer Indiana, especially since Paul George has recently busted out of his mini slump and the Pacers have regained some traction with recent wins over the Rockets, Hawks, and Pistons to solidify their spot in the East playoff queue. |
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03-10-17 | Rockets -4.5 v. Bulls | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Points have been a bit hard to come by for Chicago the last week, as the Bulls have scored 92.5 ppg in their last 4, as G Dwyane Wade is iffy with a thigh problem and F Jimmy Butler has been sick (just 7 of 21 shooting Wednesday at Orlando). Houston is 21-12 SU and 22-11 vs. the number on the road this season, and the Rockets are coming off back-to-back losses (at the Spurs and at home vs. the Jazz), and the Rockets are 14-5 vs. the number following a SU setback this season. Mike D’Antoni will have his team ready for second meeting with Bulls after the Rockets needed every one of G James Harden’s 42 points (and 12 boards, and 9 assists) to take a 121-117 OT decision from the Bulls on Feb. 3. |
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03-08-17 | Celtics +8.5 v. Warriors | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Those who remember this matchup from a year ago will recall that Golden State was looking like it was ready to finish undefeated at home in the regular season before Boston pulled the upset in Oakland. Indeed, the Celtics played Golden State tough on both occasions last year, but they weren’t close on Nov. 18 at TD Garden in 16-point loss, when Klay Thompson (scored 28) was the star of the night. No Kevin Durant (who scored 23 in first meeting) in rematch, and this is a one-night home stand for Golden State, heading out on the road again tomorrow after returning from a long trip just for this game. Boston now has a bit of confidence in these sorts of high-profile games after last week’s win over Cavs, and note Celtics’ 9-4 road dog mark. |
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03-08-17 | Hornets v. Heat -4 | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The NFL regular season was still underway when Charlotte won and covered the first two meetings vs. Miami before New Year’s. But the Heat of those days bear no resemblance to the current version that has continued to roll after the All-Star break, winning and covering 17 of last 20 into last Friday vs. Orlando. More than half of those recent victims had scored less than a point per possession, suggesting some quality defense being played by Erik Spoelstra’s troops. And Pat Riley has been doing some good business, too; at nearly $20 million less than Dwyane Wade is earning this season, |
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03-07-17 | Lakers v. Mavs -10 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offshoot of the Lakers dealing away top scorer Lou Williams before the trade deadline is that their offense is now almost as bad as their defense. Nick Young certainly not helping much after shooting 9 for 37 from tripleville in recent four-game stretch. And for those very few who believe a turnaround is imminent in the new Magic Johnson-assupremo-era, consider that excess baggage such as Luol Deng, Timofey Mozgov and, now, Corey Brewer, are taking up a ton of future cap space. Comparably speaking, Dallas’ problems are few, and the Mavs have basically played at a decent .500 level since a slow 4-17 SU break from the gate. Moreover, Mark Cuban loves to beat the Lakers, which the Mavs have done easily in the first two this term and in all six meetings since the beginning of last season. |
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03-06-17 | Kings v. Nuggets -12.5 | 96-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Briefly circling the wagons after the DeMarcus Cousins trade, Sacto showed life in first game after the All-Star break and beat Denver by 16 at Golden 1 Center on Feb. 23. But Kings immediately went into a deep funk thereafter, blown out three straight at home, including vs. the lowly Hornets and Nets. Meanwhile, Denver went out on the road and won at Chicago and Milwaukee and appears capable of sustaining a push for the final West playoff berth. Nuggets have fared well vs. sub-.500 opposition this season and have stabilized with vet Jameer Nelson now getting most of the minutes at the point, with Emmanuel Mudiay having temporarily disappeared from view |
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03-06-17 | Pelicans v. Jazz -5 | 83-88 | Push | 0 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Anthony Davis will be glad to have some extra help from newly-added Boogie Cousins against a Utah side that throttled the Pels by 33 on Feb. 8 at Smoothie King. That night, Davis was held to 12 points and recorded a ghastly -36 on the +/-. But when NO finally won a game after the All-Star break, it was only vs. the disappointing Pistons last Wednesday, and Cousins sat out that one on yet another technical foul suspension. So far, the Pels have scored a paltry 96 points per 100 possessions with Cousins and Davis on the floor together, in part because Jrue Holiday has shot 29 percent and has almost as many turnovers (16) as assists (18) in the first three games since the trade. And though the opposition has been tough, that’s not the return on investment fans were expecting. Utah throws in a stinker once in a while (such as last Wednesday vs. the T-wolves), but Jazz are already familiar with Cousins, and Pel chemistry issues still a concern. |
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03-06-17 | Heat v. Cavs -8.5 | 106-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a quick turnaround from Saturday night’s series meeting in Miami. The Cavs have won 7 of their last 8 SU at home and are 5-2 vs. the number in the last 7 at Quicken Loans Arena. The Heat haven’t won SU in Cleveland since LeBron was still wearing Miami gear, and the Cavs have covered last 5 as host in this series. First meeting was a 30-point Cleveland blowout win back on Dec. 9, when Cav PF Kevin Love scored 28 and grabbed 15 boards to lead the rout. The Heat won’t have to deal with Love, but Cavs are 9-4 L13 laying 9 or more points |
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03-05-17 | Thunder +1 v. Mavs | 89-104 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC’s Russell Westbrook dropped 45 points on the young Dallas backcourt in a 109-98 Thunder win against Dallas Jan. 26, dealing Dallas its 9th loss in the last 10 series meetings. Westbrook has been a locomotive this season, and the Thunder are just 1½ games back of Utah in the hunt for the Northwest Division title, an important goal in gaining home court and avoiding Golden State or San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs |
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03-05-17 | Warriors v. Knicks +10.5 | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State wasn’t covering numbers before losing Kevin Durant to a knee sprain, as the Warriors were just 1-5 vs. the points in their last 6 prior to visiting Chicago on Thursday. Warriors have underachieved as big road favorites, covering just 5 of 18 chances laying more than 9 points. New York covered at Golden State back in mid-December, when neither Knick leader F Carmelo Anthony nor G Derrick Rose played. Steph Curry made only 3 of 14 shots in that one, but Klay Thompson had 25 pts. and Kevin Durant flirted with a triple double to key the victory. This time around Anthony and Rose are on their games, and it’s the Warriors who’re shorthanded. |
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03-05-17 | Pacers v. Hawks -2.5 | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers know they have lost most of their margin for error in the Eastern Conference playoff race, and look to break a 2-8 skid when they visit the Atlanta Hawks today in the fourth stop of a five-game road trip. The Pacers did upend Houston on Monday and had chances in the final seconds Wednesday before falling at San Antonio, but entered Saturday just two games ahead of Detroit for seventh place in the East. Atlanta leads the season series 1-0, getting 23 points and 21 rebounds from Howard in a 96-85 victory on Nov. 23 in Indianapolis. |
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03-04-17 | Nets v. Blazers -11 | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Portland Trail Blazers might have saved their season with their last victory and now look to win consecutive games for the first time since a three-game winning streak in late January when they host the Brooklyn Nets today. Portland outfought Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder 114-109 on Thursday as they keep attempting to make up ground on the eighth-place Denver Nuggets for the final Western Conference playoff spot. The Nets lost for the 28th time in 30 games when they suffered a 112-97 setback against the Utah Jazz on Friday. Brooklyn is 1-3 entering the fifth contest of its eight-game Circus Trip and stands just 3-26 on the road. The Trail Blazers are 35-6 all-time at home against the Nets. |
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03-04-17 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Rockets | 108-123 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After losing the first two against Memphis this season, the Rockets came back with a 109-95 victory in Memphis in most recent meeting, on Jan. 21. The Grizzlies are just one game out of the 4th seed of the playoffs, and Memphis PG Mike Conley, who is scoring 19 ppg vs. the Rockets this season, is shooting 42% from 3-point range over his last 10 games. Memphis faced Dallas last night, but the Griz are 20-10 vs. the number the last 2 years when unrested. Houston is just 4-10 vs. the points at home when not favored by more than 9 points. |
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03-04-17 | Hornets v. Nuggets -5.5 | 112-102 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlotte is streaking in the right direction, posting 3 straight covers, including SU victories at Sacramento and the Lakers prior to stopping in Phoenix on Thursday. However, Denver has regained services of F Danilo Gallinari, and the Nuggets are 8-3 SU and vs. the points in their last 11 at the Pepsi Center. Charlotte is not getting enough points to outweigh the Hornets’ 10-21 SU mark on the road. |
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03-04-17 | Clippers v. Bulls +2 | 101-91 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Bulls looked as though they were fading out of playoff contention and might trade their leading scorer a few weeks ago, but suddenly they are one of the hottest teams in the league. The Bulls, who beat the two conference leaders in a six-day span recently, go after their sixth win in seven games tonight when they entertain the struggling Los Angeles Clippers. |
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03-04-17 | Raptors v. Bucks +1 | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks had their best offensive output since before the All-Star break in a 112-101 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo made 10-of-13 shots en route to 24 points as Milwaukee evened its home mark at 16-16. Three reserves combined to pitch in 47 points while shooting 71.4 percent from the floor Friday night, led by big man Greg Monroe. The seven-year pro matched Antetokounmpo in the scoring column while finishing 11-of-15 from the floor and chipping in five assists, more than twice his season average. Antetokounmpo is averaging 26 points, eight assists and seven rebounds through the first three games against Toronto in 2016-17. |
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03-04-17 | Pistons v. 76ers +5 | 136-106 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly split first two with the Pistons this season, both played in Detroit, and Sixers didn’t have since-injured C Joel Embiid for either game. Philadelphia played last night, but the Sixers have covered 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 playing without rest. Meanwhile, Detroit’s road efforts have been lacking, as the Pistons are just 2-8 against the number in last 10 away from home. |
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03-03-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +3.5 | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas will remember its humiliating 80-64 loss at Memphis back on Nov. 18, when the Mavs needed a 3-pointer as the last seconds ticked away to avoid their franchise-low of 62 pts., scored 20 years ago. The Mavs shot a mortifying 25% in the first 3 Qs. Since then, Dallas has regained the services of Dirk Nowitzki, and G Seth Curry has started playing like his brother (23.5 ppg, 61.5% on threes since the break). Clearly, the injury to G Wes Matthews (iffy with a hip problem) concerns HC Rick Carlisle, but overriding factor in this one is the Mavs’ 11-1 spread mark in last 12 home games. |
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03-03-17 | Clippers -4.5 v. Bucks | 101-112 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are 1-3 SU and against the points since the All-Star break, but the Clippers losses to Golden State, San Antonio and Houston are understandable. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has dropped 7 of its last 8 spread decisions at the Target Center, and is just 5-16 vs. the number since Jan. 12. The Clips have beaten the Bucks 3 straight and 8 of the last 9, and last season Buck F Giannis Antetokounmpo scored just 12 ppg and shot 39% against the Clips, while G Khris Middleton had a similar lack of success (12 ppg, 35%). L.A. Gs Chris Paul and J.J. Redick combined to shoot 55.6% and score 45 ppg in the two meetings vs. Milwaukee LY. |
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03-03-17 | Heat -3.5 v. Magic | 99-110 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando has been sliding since just after Christmas, going 10-18 vs. the points since Dec. 26. Miami has been headed in a much more positive direction (16-3-1 since Jan. 16), and the Heat are chasing the playoffs and in double-revenge situation against the Magic. While Orlando has surprised a few teams lately (Atlanta, Miami, Toronto), the wins come few and far between for a Magic side yielding 107 ppg in its last 10 outings. Magic just 10-20 SU and 9-20-1 vs. the points at home. |
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03-03-17 | Raptors v. Wizards -5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a quick turnaround from Wednesday’s meeting, when Washington rode the hot hand of trade-deadline acquisition Bojan Bogdanovic (6 of 7 treys; 27 pts.) to a 105-96 victory over Toronto. That win snapped the Wizards’ 5-game series losing streak, although Washington is 8-3 vs. the points in last 11 facing the Raptors. Although Washington has cooled a bit at home lately (just 3-4 vs. the number in last 7 at the Verizon Center), the absence of Kyle Lowry (23 ppg; out 4-5 weeks after wrist surgery) is bound to slow down the Raptors |
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03-02-17 | Thunder v. Blazers -1.5 | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Home edge held in earlier meetings, as teams split first two. We’ll see how much Ok City upgraded its supporting cast for Russell Westbrook by adding Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson from the Bulls at the deadline. But given Westbrook’s tendency to dominate the ball, it might be a while before the new additions can properly fit into whatever mix Billy Donovan envisions. Portland a more dangerous team at home, and Blazers held Westbrook to 20 in easy Dec. 13 win at Moda Center before Russell scored 42 in return match victory for Thunder at the Peake on Feb. 5. Back at Moda Center, expect tougher sledding for Westbrook. |
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03-02-17 | Warriors -6.5 v. Bulls | 87-94 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State has really laid it on Chicago in recently meetings, winning by DD margins in both clashes last season and then destroying Bulls by 31 in Oakland on Feb. 8. Chicago made some moves at the deadline, but did not send away Jimmy Butler, yet we’ll have to see if Chicago really helped itself by dealing off supporting cast members Doug McDermott & Taj Gibson, and if G Cameron Payne (acquired from Thunder) is indeed ready to assume PG duties. If Payne is to play significant minutes, he’s in for a rough ride tonight against Steph Curry & Co. Though Warriors have underwhelmed vs. the number on the road, they have usually saved special efforts for these TNT Thursday games. Doubt Chicago’s recent moves will alter series trends. |
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03-01-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Clippers | 122-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston dominated the shorthanded Clippers in first meeting (no Blake Griffin or Chris Paul), winning 140-116, but expect repeat performance from road-warrior Rockets. Houston is 15-6 vs. the points visiting “A” and “B” teams this season, so, if L.A. PG Chris Paul isn’t back and in top form, the Clippers could be in trouble again. L.A. has dropped 4 of its last 5 against “A” teams prior to facing San Antonio Feb. 24. The Rockets are “A” material. |
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03-01-17 | Pacers +10 v. Spurs | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Larry Bird deflected away interest from elsewhere at the trade deadline for Paul George, Indiana can go about solidifying its playoff position (Pacers sat 6th in the East queue at the All-Star break), which became some what in question with a 6-game losing streak into the break. Not sure Indy can nab a win here, but San Antonio has been a lessthan-reliable spread proposition for a while now, covering only 4 of last 11 through Feb. 23. That included a close win-but-no-cover at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Feb. 13 when Spurs needed a big effort from Kawhi Leonard (who scored 32) to survive. Recent Pacer skid more the result of an extremely-tough schedule stretch. We’ll see if Spurs even recall their AT&T Center digs after they have been away from home since Feb. 4! |
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03-01-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Raptors | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto was limping at the All-Star Break, posting a 5-12 spread mark (2-6 at home) in its last 17 prior to facing Boston on Friday. Much has changed since the Raptors took a 113-103 decision at Air Canada Centre back in early November. Washington has recovered from a 6-12 SU start to go 28-9 from Dec. 5 through Feb. 23. The Wizards, who are 6-1 SU and against the points in their last 7 road games through Feb. 24, match up well. |
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02-28-17 | Suns v. Grizzlies -9.5 | 112-130 | Win | 100 | 30 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis has hardly taken a deep breath while blasting Phoenix twice earlier this season in a pair of 19-point romps. That includes rather recent Feb. 8 beat down at FedEx Forum when Griz held Suns to 33% FG shooting. Mike Conley (31 ppg in the two previous meetings) was again in control as the game’s high scorer. Granted, there have been some positives lately for Phoenix, as since Jan. 1, Suns have scored 111.8 points per 100 possessions and are a plus-19 with Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker on the floor together. None of that, however, manifested in the previous clashes vs. Memphis on Jan. 30 & Feb. 8. |
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02-28-17 | Nuggets v. Bulls -2 | 125-107 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trading away one starter and another key rotation player in exchange for a pair of young projects might have been seen as the Chicago Bulls raising the white flag on the 2016-2017 season, but the team's recent results suggest otherwise. The Bulls will try to earn their fifth straight win and pull two games above .500 for the first time since mid-December when they host the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are clinging to the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference and dropped three of their last four games after suffering a 105-98 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday. |
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02-28-17 | Jazz v. Thunder +2 | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City regularly dominates Utah at Chesapeake Arena and the Thunder look to post their 11th consecutive home victory in the series when they entertain the Jazz today. Utah's last win in Oklahoma City was a 120-99 rout on Oct. 31, 2010, when guard Deron Williams was the franchise's best player and Hall of Famer Jerry Sloan served as coach. Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook will be looking for his 30th triple-double of the season after producing 41 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Sunday's 118-110 home victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. Westbrook recorded a triple-double against the Jazz on Jan. 23, when he totaled 38 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in a 97-95 victory in Salt Lake City. |
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02-27-17 | Heat -1 v. Mavs | 89-96 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Dallas’ addition of Nerlens Noel at the deadline (costing oft-injured Andrew Bogut) suggests the Mavs are not yet waving the white flag and still believe they have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs as the West’s 8th seed. But not sure that move provides Dallas much of an upgrade, and Mavs also released Deron Williams, so not sure about Mavs in this spot. Remember, Miami won and covered in first meeting Jan. 19 at AA Arena at the outset of the Heat’s uptick that resulted in wins and covers in 14 of 16 into the break. Good news for Miami playoff hopes is that it has the easiest remaining schedule of teams six thru eleven in the East right now. |
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02-27-17 | Raptors -3.5 v. Knicks | 92-91 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto hosted Portland yesterday. But note that the Raptors are a solid 29-18 the last three seasons against the points when un-rested. In the Raptors’ two wins at Air Canada Centre earlier this season, the Knick “triplets” of Fs Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and PG Derrick Rose combined for 64 ppg and shot better than 50%. Addition of PF Ibaka might help defend Anthony and/or Porzingis this time around, so favor Toronto. |
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02-26-17 | Blazers v. Raptors -5 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither of these teams was playing particularly well at the break, as the Raptors were 5-12 vs. the points from Jan. 17 through Feb. 23 and Portland was 4-11 from Jan. 13-Feb. 22. The difference being that while Portland appears to be sliding out of playoff contention, Toronto is in the thick of a fight with Boston for the Atlantic Division title and acquired Serge Ibaka to help boost its chances during the All-Star hiatus. Portland has been a terrible road dog (6-13), while Toronto is 15-9 this season laying 4 points or more at the Air Canada Centre. |
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