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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-16 | Blue Jays -124 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Blue Jays lost a tough one last night as they blew a 7-2 to fall to Oakland 8-7 and now sit three games behind Baltimore in the American League East. They have been a solid bounce back team however as they have won 13 of their last 18 games following a defeat. Oakland has been just the opposite as it has been unable to get anything going as it has lost four straight games following a win and despite the victory last night, it is 8-20 in its last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the mound and he has had a very tough season as he has a 5.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 16 starts with just half of those being quality outings. His numbers are even worse at home and Oakland has won just one of his last eight starts. Additionally, the Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine games against right-handed starters. R.A. Dickey counters for Toronto and while his season has pretty solid, he is going through the best stretch of his season. He has posted a 3.02 ERA over his last eight starts and the Blue Jays have gone 14-6 in his last 20 starts after posting a quality outing in his last start. 10* (915) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-15-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -136 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
It was a disappointing first half for the Cardinals as they are four games over .500 and it was the home/road split that was most surprising. They are 11 games over .500 on the road but just seven games under .500 at home and that has been the main story for the struggles. The break came at a great time as St. Louis now needs to get going at home to keep pace in the National League Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Mets for the second Wild Card spot thanks to a home sweep prior to the break and the Marlins come into tonight a game over .500 on the road. However, the Marlins are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a winning record. Jaime Garcia gets the ball for the Cardinals and while he has been up and down, his home numbers are solid with a 3.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts. He has been hurt by poor run support overall but St. Louis has put up an average of 7.7 rpg over his last three starts and that should keep going. Wei-Yin Chen has been all over the place this season and despite a quality start in his last outing, he has a 6.00 ERA over his last six starts. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-15-16 | Brewers v. Reds -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Reds concluded a 10-game roadtrip prior to the All Star Break so this makes it their first home game in July and while the home field has not been great, only 17 of their 46 games at Great American have come against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has won 10 of those and this is just the second series since early May against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee dropped two straight at home against St. Louis prior to the break and while it is still above .500 at home, it is just 15-27 on the road and more recent, the Brewers are 4-12 in their last 16 road games. The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani who has been sensational since entering the rotation in June. He has a 2.23 ERA in six starts including a 0.64 ERA in two home starts, both resulting in Cincinnati victories. The Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts during Game One of a series. Milwaukee counters with Matt Garza who turned in a pair of quality outings in his first two starts but has posted an 8.44 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last two starts and going back, the Brewers have dropped seven of his last nine road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (956) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-15-16 | Orioles v. Rays -126 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
The Orioles entered the All Star Break with a two-game lead over Boston and Toronto in the American League East which has been anchored by a baseball-best 33-14 record at home. The road has been a different story however as Baltimore is just 18-22 on the highway and the Orioles are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Tampa Bay was not expected to do much this season but it has been worse than expected as it comes in 20 games under .500 and its 34-54 is just two games better than Minnesota for worst in the American League. Preseason Cy Young candidate Chris Archer has been a big reason for that as he has had a tough season with just four wins and a 4.66 ERA in 19 starts. He has been awful on the road with a 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP but has been solid at home with a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has gotten little run support at Tropicana Field but that changes tonight as Yovani Gallardo takes the hill and he has struggled in limited action. In nine starts, he has just one quality outing and while his 5.82 ERA overall is bad enough, it balloons to 7.83 on the road. 10* (968) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-10-16 | Nationals v. Mets -132 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
The Mets are in jeopardy of losing their third straight game and falling six games behind Washington in the National League Central but today presents a great opportunity for a bounceback. They have managed only two runs over the last two games but those came against Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg so no real harm there. The matchup is much better today and despite the two-game winning streak, Washington is just 4-4 over its last eight games and going back, the Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. After going with their top two aces, they send Gio Gonzalez to the hill and he has been struggling. He is coming off a quality start in his last game but overall he has a 4.79 ERA which includes a 5.05 ERA in eight road starts, six of which have been lost by the Nationals. It has been a horrible run overall as the Nationals are 1-8 in his last nine starts. The Mets turn to Steven Matz who has been solid although unspectacular. He has a 3.54 ERA overall and his 1.22 WHIP is really good which goes down further at home and even further in day games. The Mets are 8-1 in his last nine starts following a quality start in his last outing while the Nationals are 0-4 in their last four road games against left-handed starters. 10* (902) New York Mets |
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07-10-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -161 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The win by Detroit yesterday snapped the Blue Jays seven-game winning streak but we can expect Toronto to rebound here and grab a victory before the break. The offense was held to just two runs Saturday after averaging 7.7 rpg during the winning streak and the Blue Jays are 40-16 in their last 56 home games against teams with a losing road record. Detroit was not expected to do much this season but it has held up pretty well as it is now four games over .500 but still trails the Indians by 6.5-games in the American League Central. They have not been great on the road and are 2-7 in their last nine road games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers turn to Anibal Sanchez once again only because they are out of options and he has been struggling. He was sent to the bullpen after posting a 6.667 ERA through 11 starts and the relief role actually was good for him but he has had to make two spot starts since then and neither were good so we can expect similar struggles today. R.A. Dickey counters for Toronto and while his season has been average, he is going through the best stretch of his season. He has posted a 3.49 ERA over his last eight starts and the Blue Jays have gone 13-6 in his last 19 starts after posting a quality outing in his last start. 9* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-09-16 | Mariners v. Royals -115 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
It has been a tough first half for the reigning World Series Champions as Kansas City fell to 44-42 following a loss on Friday and it is now on a poor 1-5 run. The problems have come on the road however where the Royals are 16-30 but even with the loss last night, they are 28-12 at home and have lost consecutive games at home only once, going 10-1 in the previous 11 home games following a home loss. Seattle is a game under .500 on the road and had lost four straight games previous to last night and 10 straight road games as well. Edinson Volquez goes for the Royals and after getting shelled by Houston for 11 runs in just one inning, he has put together a pair of decent outings and looks to build on that. His home numbers are skewed by that one bad start but six of his 10 home outings have been quality performances and going back, the Royals are 21-7 in his last 28 home starts. Wade Miley counters for Seattle and he is coming off a quality game last time out but those have been few and far between this season. He has only five all season and has followed up his last three with non-quality efforts in his next start. 10* (976) Kansas City Royals |
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07-09-16 | Cardinals -150 v. Brewers | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
St. Louis won its final game of its homestand against the Pirates but failed to build any momentum off of that as it lost the series opener in Milwaukee last night. Still, the Cardinals are 25-16 on the road which is the second best road record in baseball and they are now are 8-2 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. Milwaukee improved to 23-20 at home but even with the victory last night, the Brewers are 19-39 in their last 58 games against teams with a winning record. Carlos Martinez gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been a tough luck pitcher of late. He has a 1.33 ERA over his last four starts but all have resulted in Cardinals losses as the offense has given him little while the bullpen has allowed 11 runs. He has posted seven straight quality starts and has owned Milwaukee the last two years with a 0.39 ERA in three starts at Miller Park. The Brewers turn to Chase Anderson who has been horrific of late with a 12.66 ERA in his last three starts and Milwaukee has dropped his last four starts. Additionally, the Brewers are 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (951) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-08-16 | Yankees v. Indians -162 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The Indians dropped the opener of this series last night but are in great position to get it back tonight. Cleveland still holds a 6.5-game lead in the American League Central and comes back with its ace tonight and going back, the Indians are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing road record. New York has lost its last three games following a win and even with the victory last night, the Yankees are 4-12 in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record. Corey Kluber gets the ball for the Indians and he is coming off a poor start against Toronto where he allowed five runs in just 3.1 innings. This was his fifth start that he has allowed five runs or more and in the previous four, he bounced back with three quality outings and posting a 1.53 ERA in those four starts. The Yankees counter with Chad Green who is coming off a quality start against the Padres in just his second start of his career. Things will be tougher here though as the Indians offense is much more potent and they have won 11 of their last 14 games against right-handed starters. 9* (922) Cleveland Indians |
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07-07-16 | Yankees v. Indians -165 | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
The Indians won 14 straight games to vault themselves into first place in the American League Central and while they are still there, they have dropped three of their last five games but are in a great spot tonight. Cleveland had not lost a game at home since May prior to the Wednesday defeat which snapped a 13-game home winning streak but it is still on a seven-game home winning streak against teams with a losing record. We played the Yankees last night and were shutout 5-0 to fall to 2-4 on this current roadtrip which has put them two games under .500 overall. New York is now seven games under .500 on the road and catches Cleveland at a bad time. Trevor Bauer has had a great turnaround since entering the rotation after six relief appearances to start the season. Nine of his last 10 starts have been quality outings and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of 12 starts. He is coming off an emergency relief appearance against Toronto in the 19-inning game last Friday and he was solid in picking up the win but the best part is that he now has had six days of rest heading into tonight. The Yankees counter with Ivan Nova who has been all over the place as he has allowed four runs or more in six of his last eight starts with New York going just 2-6 in those games. Going back, the Yankees are 3-7 in his last 10 starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (964) Cleveland Indians |
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07-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -144 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
After sweeping the Brewers over the weekend, the Cardinals are on the verge of getting swept against Pittsburgh following another blown lead yesterday. St. Louis blew a 5-2 lead on Wednesday and it now trails the Pirates by a half-game in the National League Central but more importantly, the National League Wild Card race. The most surprising thing about the Cardinals struggles this season have been at home where they are just 18-26, by far the worst home record in baseball from a team with a winning record but all that does is add value in a given situation and that situation is right here. The Pirates have now won seven straight games to move three games over .500 overall so they are catching momentum at the right time but closing out a long series has been tough as they are just 1-4 in their last five in Game Four of a series. Adam Wainwright gets the ball for St. Louis and while his overall numbers do not look great, he has been pretty solid overall with the exception of four bad starts, three of which came on the road. Five of his last six have been quality and the Cardinals are 6-2 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. Tyler Glasnow will be making his Major League debut today and while he has been solid at Triple-A, this is a different ballgame and the desperate Cardinals avoid the sweep on Thursday. 9* (952) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-06-16 | Yankees -135 v. White Sox | 0-5 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
The Yankees snapped the White Sox three-game winning streak behind a brilliant performance from Masahiro Tanaka and they are in shape to get another strong starting showing tonight. New York has been the model of inconsistency since a five-game winning streak in early June but by pounding out a season high 20 hits last night, they have some good momentum heading into tonight. Chicago had won five of its last six going into Tuesday and it now two games over .500 overall which puts it right in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. However, the White Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. They hit the bottom of the rotation tonight with Miguel Gonzalez and while he is coming off a solid outing, there has been very little upside. He has been especially poor at home where he has a 7.84 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in four starts, three resulting in Chicago losses. The Yankees counter with Michael Pineda whose overall numbers are not good but he is coming off a great June with a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six starts. Going back, the Yankees are 5-0 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the White Sox are 10-21 in their last 31 games against right-handed starters. 9* (927) New York Yankees |
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07-06-16 | Brewers v. Nationals -171 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
The Washington offense has been able to do nothing against Milwaukee in the first two games of this series and the Nationals look to avoid the sweep today and gain some momentum before heading to New York and an important series with the Mets. Washington has managed just two runs in the first two games after not scoring fewer than three runs in its previous 11 games. Milwaukee had lost four straight games prior to this series but it is still a horrible 15-26 on the road including losses in four of its last 15 on the highway. Matt Garza looks to keep the solid pitching going but he has been fairly average since joining the rotation and now he heads to a place that has not been good. In three career starts at Nationals Park, he has a 23.14 ERA, allowing 18 earned runs in just seven innings, to go along with a 4.29 WHIP. The Brewers have lost all three of his road games this season and are 0-7 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Tanner Roark meanwhile has been solid all season with a 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts, 12 of which have been quality outings. The Nationals are 6-0 in his last six starts against teams with a losing record. 9* (908) Washington Nationals |
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07-05-16 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -142 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Arizona dropped the opener of this series on Monday and has now dropped eight of its last nine games including six of seven during this current homestand. The Padres meanwhile have won three of their last four games and going back, they have taken five of seven games on the road however as longterm failure has been the issue as they are 18-39 in their last 57 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Arizona turns to Zack Godley due to the placement of Zack Greinke on the disabled list. He was called up to start June 11 against the Marlins and allowed two runs on four hits in six innings, then was shifted to the bullpen for four appearances. He has been solid as a starter going back to last season as he has allowed three runs or less in six of seven starts. The Padres are 3-11 in their last 14 road games against right-handed starters. San Diego counters with Christian Friedrich who started the season solid but has hit a rough patch, posting a 7.88 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last three outings. Arizona is hitting .282 at home against lefties on the season. 9* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-04-16 | Mariners v. Astros -159 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
A four-game winning streak was halted over the weekend as the White Sox defeated Houston on Saturday and Sunday and the Astros look to end to skid today. They are 8.5 games behind Texas in the American League West but are just a game out of the final Wild Card spot. The Astros are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Mariners are coming off a home sweep of the Orioles to move into a tie with Houston in the division but hitting the road is an issues as they are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lance McCullers gets the ball for Houston and he has been very solid of late, allowing three runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He has a 2.37 ERA at home in five starts with just an inning and a third off of being all quality outings. Seattle counters with Wade Miley who has been a major disappointment this season with a 5.58 ERA overall including a 6.13 ERA on the road. He has been fortunate to get a ton of run support as he has received over eight rpg on the road which has led to a 6-1 record for Seattle in his seven road outings. However, the Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 9* (920) Houston Astros |
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07-03-16 | Tigers v. Rays -149 | 5-1 | Loss | -149 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
It has been a rough run for Tampa Bay since a three-game winning streak in mid-June as the Rays are on a 2-15 run and on the verge of getting swept in this four-game set. Both offense and pitching have been inconsistent over this stretch but we are getting some solid value with them today in this contrarian spot. Detroit has now won five straight games after getting swept at home against Cleveland and while the Tigers are still 6.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central, they are just a half-game out of the Wild Card playoff spots. After three straight solid seasons, Chris Archer has had some struggles this season as he is just 4-11 including losses in four straight games. The starts have not been bad however and not only have the Rays been solid in series enders, going 5-2 in their last seven games during Game Four of a series but they are also a perfect 8-0 in their last eight Game Four contests with Archer on the hill. Detroit turns to Mike Pelfrey to keep the run going but the road has not been kind to him as he is 0-5 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in seven starts with the Tigers winning just one of those. Look for the Rays to bust out of this slump this afternoon. 9* (966) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-02-16 | Cubs -160 v. Mets | 3-4 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The Cubs lost Game Two of this series last night to fall to 4-5 on this current roadtrip and going back, they are just 4-9 over their last 13 games but are in a good spot tonight. They bring in a 26-17 road record and those 26 wins are tied for second most in all of baseball. New York had lost four straight games prior to this series and still trails the Nationals, winners of six straight, by six games in the National League East. The offense erupted for 10 runs last night after scoring just 13 runs total in their previous six games and we should see similar output tonight. Jake Arrieta is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed five runs in five innings against the Reds and that was just his sixth non-quality start of the season. The Cubs have lost only once in the prior five follow up games after that and going back, they are an incredible 25-3 in his last 28 road starts. The Mets counter with Bartolo Colon who continues to defy the odds with his success at the age of 43. He has allowed two runs or less in seven straight games but we go against him here based on the situation and the setup as the Mets are 2-6 in his last eight home starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (907) Chicago Cubs |
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07-01-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals -171 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
The Cardinals came up small for us last night as they lost 4-2 despite another solid effort from Mike Leake. They have now dropped seven straight at home but now get to face a team with a losing record as the last time this has happened was way back on May 22nd as their last five home series have come against teams all above .500. The Cardinals are 104-51 in their last 155 home games against teams with a losing record. Milwaukee lost its series at home against the Dodgers where it totaled a 3-3 homestand but the road has been a lot different for the Brewers. They are two games over .500 at Miller Park but 10 games under .500 on the highway and even worse, the Brewers are 16-36 in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record. Jaime Garcia looks to end this skid for the Cardinals as well as rebound from a rare outing where he struggled. He is coming off a poor start in Seattle last time out where he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings but we can expect a bounceback here as Garcia has been great in that spot. He has allowed four runs or more in four previous starts this season and came back with four quality starts in the follow up performance, posting a 1.53 ERA in those games. Matt Garza has been somewhat effective in his limited action since coming off the disabled list as his 2.61 ERA looks solid however, he has a 1.50 WHIP and .323 BAA so he has been more fortunate than anything. Going back to last season, the Brewers are 1-6 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-30-16 | Giants -137 v. A's | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The Giants took five of six meetings last season against Oakland but is in jeopardy of getting swept this season after losing two games at home to start the week and then dropping the first game in Oakland last night 7-1. Despite the defeat, the Giants are still 10 games over .500 on the road and are tied with St. Louis for the second best road record in baseball. They have won 21 of their last 29 games on the highway and while Oakland took the first game here last night, it is still five games under .500 at home and its -46 run differential is third worst in the American League. Additionally, they are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Madison Bumgarner tossed another quality outing in his last start which was his 13th straight quality performance but it was his second straight tough luck loss as his offense managed to score just two runs, the fourth straight game it has scored three runs or less with him on the hill. The good news is that the Giants are 7-0 in his last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game. Oakland counters with Dillon Overton who is making just his second career start. He missed a quality outing by just one-third of an inning in his first start but it was not a great one as he allowed three home runs in 5.2 innings and now faces a Giants team that is 11-3 in its last 14 games against left-handed starters. 10* (921) San Francisco Giants |
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06-30-16 | Royals v. Cardinals -161 | 4-2 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
We lost a tough one with the Cardinals last night as they fell in extra innings to the Royals and have now dropped six straight games at home going back to early June. They are +74 in run differential which is the fourth best margin in baseball and after a poor offensive effort last night, we should see a bounceback as the Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Kansas City picked up a rare road win as it had dropped 11 of its last 13 on the road and looking back, the Royals are 2-10 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record. The offense has been the problem as the Royals have scored three runs or less in 10 of their last 12 games on the highway. St. Louis turns to Mike Leake who is having a solid season despite what many think is a high 4.25 ERA. He is coming off a poor outing at Seattle but prior to that, he put up seven quality starts in his previous eight outings. The schedule has not done him any favors either as seven of his last nine starts have come on the road. The Royals are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against right-handed starters. Chris Young gets the ball for Kansas City and he is coming off an awful effort against Houston where he allowed seven runs in just 2.1 innings, He has struggled on the road with a 9.70 ERA in five starts, none being quality and all resulting in Royals losses. 9* (920) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-29-16 | Royals v. Cardinals -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
St. Louis won last night to split the first two games of this home-and-home set with the Royals and looks to get back to its typical home domination. The Cardinals are coming off a 5-3 roadtrip to improve to 25-15 on the highway which is tied for the second best road record in all of baseball. They have had surprising struggles at home where they have dropped five straight and are six games under .500 but going back, the Cardinals are 24-8 in their last 32 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Kansas City is six games behind the red hot Indians in the American League Central and it hits the road where it is just 13-25 including going 1-10 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. Edinson Volquez gets the ball for the Royals and he is coming off his worst start ever where he allowed 11 runs in just one inning of work. He has just one quality start over his last five outings and things should not get better here as the Royals are 1-7 in his last eight road starts against teams with a winning record. Carlos Martinez has been solid of late, tossing five straight quality outings after a rough patch at the end of May. There positive runs have been going on for a while as going back, the Cardinals are 21-7 in his last 28 starts following a quality start last time out. 9* (976) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-29-16 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -156 | 9-8 | Loss | -156 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
We lost a tough one with Arizona last night as the Phillies scored twice in the top of the ninth to pull out a 4-3 win but the Diamondbacks may have lost more depending on the injury status of Zack Greinke who had to leave the game after just two innings. Arizona looks to avoid a sweep to the Phillies which got swept at home in the first series this season a week ago and that started a 7-1 start to the recent roadtrip for the Diamondbacks. Winning streaks have been rare for the Phillies as they are just 1-9 in their last 10 games following a win and turn to Zach Eflin who is still in search of his first win at the Major League level. He is coming off his best start of the season after three outings where he allowed no earned runs in six innings against the Giants but the situation is not good here as he is facing Arizona for a second time, the first time in his career that a team has seen him twice. Archie Bradley has been up and down in his eight starts this season but the opposition has been tough and Arizona has won his last two outings. While his ERA at home is nothing to be proud of, he has a 1.12 WHIP at Chase Field which is a better indication of performance and going back, the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in his last six starts against teams with a losing record. 9* (954) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-28-16 | A's v. Giants -139 | Top | 13-11 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
We lost with the Giants last night as they have now dropped two of their last three games following a four-game winning streak as well as a 12-1 run over their previous 13 games. Losing streaks have been rare as they have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss including wins in four straight and we have a good price behind them tonight. Oakland has now won four of its last five games, all coming on the road where they are still four games under .500 for the season. Despite the win on Monday, they are just 8-23 in their last 31 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. San Francisco sends Albert Suarez to the hill and he has been very solid in his limited action with a 3.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over four starts and six relief appearances. He has been exceptional at home with a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 17 innings. Kendall Graveman gets the ball for Oakland and while he has been having a solid season, the schedule has dictated a lot of that. In his 14 starts, only two have come against teams that are currently over .500 and he was shelled both times, allowing 11 runs in just seven combined innings. This is not good news for him or his team as the Giants are 23-5 in their last 28 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. We should see another solid rebound from the Giants tonight before hitting the road for two games in Oakland. 10* (930) San Francisco Giants |
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06-28-16 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -179 | 4-3 | Loss | -179 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
At 2-1, Arizona may seem overpriced here in this spot but the Diamondbacks could not be in a better situation. They dropped the opener of this series last night 8-0 which made it three straight losses overall after dropping the final two games in Colorado on the tail end of their roadtrip that started 7-1. Additionally, Arizona has lost three straight home games but has the horse on the mound to turn it around tonight. The Phillies picked up a rare win as they have been in a tailspin after what was a great start to the season. After two straight wins in the middle of May, Philadelphia has gone 9-27 over their last 36 games and has gone 0-9 over its last nine games following a victory. After a slow start to the season, Zack Greinke has been pitching outstanding as after posting a 6.16 ERA through his first five starts, he has put up a 2.58 ERA over his last 11 starts, allowing three runs or less in nine of those. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in his last seven starts against teams with a losing record while the Phillies are 6-22 in their last 28 games against right-handed starters. Jerad Eickhoff has certainly been dependable for the Phillies but after scoring seven runs in each of his last two road starts, we will not be seeing that again especially after they scored nine runs total in his first five road starts and going back they are 3-8 in his last 11 road starts. 8* (908) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-28-16 | Twins v. White Sox -162 | 4-0 | Loss | -162 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
The Twins head to Chicago following a series loss in New York against the Yankees but they were able to win the series finale on Sunday which was a rare road win. Minnesota has only nine road wins the entire season and is the only team in baseball that has yet to reach double-figure wins on the highway and is 4-13 in its last 17 road games against teams with a winning home record. The White Sox won their series against the Blue Jays and have won six of their last 10 home games following a five-game skid. This is the first game at home against a team with a losing record since early May, a span of 22 games, with the last series against a losing team being the Twins which resulted in a home sweep and going back, they are 8-3 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Jose Quintana is having a solid season with a 3.04 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts but he has just five wins as his run support has been minimal. He is coming off a horrible start at Boston where he allowed six runs but he has been an incredible bounce back pitcher as over the last two seasons, he has allowed four runs or more eight times prior to the last one and has not allowed more than three runs next time out. The Twins are 5-18 in their last 23 road games against left-handed starters and turn to Kyle Gibson who has a 6.05 ERA which is twice that on the road. 9* (914) Chicago White Sox |
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06-27-16 | A's v. Giants -175 | 8-3 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
San Francisco opened its homestand with a 2-1 series win over Philadelphia culminated with a ninth-inning walk off double to win on Sunday. The Giants are now 24-14 at home and have built an eight-game lead over the Dodgers in the National League West and going back, the Giants are 37-14 in their last 51 home games against teams with a losing road record. Oakland was ready to sweep the Angels but blew a four-run lead on Sunday to make it a 3-1 series win. Despite the solid start to the roadtrip, it now faces a much better teams and looking back, it is 7-23 in its last 30 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Jeff Samardzija gets the ball for the Giants and he looks to bounce back from a poor outing against Pittsburgh where he allowed six runs in just three innings. He had allowed five runs or more in two other prior starts and the Giants bounced back with wins both times next time out. He threw just 64 pitched so he is fresh and the Giants are 5-1 in his last six starts against teams with a losing record while Oakland is 11-27 in its last 38 games against right-handed starters. Daniel Mengden counters for Oakland and while he has been solid, he remains winless in three starts with team losses in all of those as well. The Giants have won 21 of their last 29 games against righty starters. 9* (972) San Francisco Giants |
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06-26-16 | Rays v. Orioles -138 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
The Orioles remain red hot as they won again yesterday to make it four straight victories to increase their lead in the American League East to three games over Boston. Baltimore improved to 30-13 at home which is the best home record in baseball and going back, the Orioles are 48-22 in their last 70 home games against teams with a losing road record. Tampa Bay is now 11 games under .500 no thanks to a current 10-game slide. The Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 games after losing the first three games of a series so avoiding the big sweep has not happened much, The Orioles send Tyler Wilson to the hill and he has been a pretty solid addition to the rotation. In 11 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer eight times and while the Orioles have only lost 13 home games, five have come with Wilson on the hill which gives us the contrarian value. Tampa Bay turns to Drew Smyly who has been beat around after a promising start to the season. He has posted a 6.60 ERA over his last eight starts after putting up a 2.72 ERA in his first four outings. Going back, the Rays are 0-4 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (920) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-26-16 | Padres v. Reds -131 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
The Padres have won three straight games and six of their last seven but they are still 10 games under .500 on the season. San Diego trails the Giants by 15 games in the National League West and despite a 4-1 record on this current roadtrip, it is 15-21 on the highway overall and going back, the Padres are 7-20 in their last 27 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Cincinnati has dropped four straight games and while the overall record is worse, this looks like an excellent spot to avoid the series sweep before hosting the Cubs for a three-game series. Anthony DeSclafani will be making just his fourth start of the season since coming off the disabled list and he has been extremely solid. He allowed just two runs in seven innings at Texas last time out. Overall, he has a 2.30 ERA and going back to last season, the Reds are 4-1 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Padres counter with Luis Perdomo who has been a major disappointment. After starting the season in the bullpen, he has made four starts with just one of those being quality. Overall, he has a 9.00 ERA including an 8.83 ERA in those four starts. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-25-16 | A's v. Angels -138 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
We are going contrarian here on two levels with the Angels as they have been struggling of late as have their starting pitcher for tonight. Los Angeles has dropped five straight games, getting swept at Houston and then dropping the first two games of this four-game set against Oakland. They are sitting in last place in the American League West and have the second worst record in the American League but we are backing them here based on the opposition. Oakland is just a half-game better following the back-to-back wins but prior to this, it went 4-13 over a 17-game stretch and this is the first time since April that they have won consecutive road games. The Angels go with Jhoulys Chacin who has had his share of struggles since coming over from Atlanta but we should see a bounceback here after his worst performance of the season. He has faced some potent offenses in his defense and this is not one of them and going back, Oakland is 10-27 in its last 37 games against right-handed starters. Dillon Overton will be making his Major League debut tonight after a solid run through the minors but he is likely coming up a little too quick which is due to the Oakland injuries on its staff. He is the fourth starter to be making his big league debut for Oakland which tells us a lot. 10* (978) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-25-16 | Blue Jays -125 v. White Sox | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
The Blue Jays dropped the opener of this series last night which was their fourth loss in five games and are now 3.5 games behind Baltimore in the American League East. This came after a four-game winning streak where the Blue Jays put up 44 runs compared to just 17 runs over the last five games and this is a good spot to bust out. The White Sox are back to .500 overall thanks to a 4-1 run but the offense remains a question as they have scored three runs or less in six of their last eight games and have nowhere near the same production ability as Toronto. R.A. Dickey has been getting a lot of bad press for not living up to expectations but he has not been that bad this season all despite a 4-8 record. He has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts but his run support has been minimal as he has gotten just 2.9 rpg on the season. The White Sox are 6-17 in their last 23 games against right-handed starters. They turn to Miguel Gonzalez who has been inconsistent with just four quality outings in his nine starts this season His first start this season came against Toronto and he was shellacked for five runs on 11 hits in just 5.1 innings and going back, the Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (967) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-24-16 | Nationals -162 v. Brewers | 3-5 | Loss | -162 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The Nationals continue their roadtrip after getting swept at Los Angeles by the Dodgers to make it five straight losses, a season high. They still hold a four-game lead over the Mets in the National League East and they need the offense to start producing again as they have managed just 12 runs over the five-game skid. Washington was off yesterday which is good as it is 40-19 in its last 59 games following an off day. Milwaukee split its two-game set with Oakland but finished 2-7 on its nine-game roadtrip and while it is two games over .500 at home, the Brewers are catching the wrong opponent at the wrong time. Going back, the Brewers are 2-5 in their last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Max Scherzer takes the hill to stop the bleeding and he has been on a fantastic run of late, posting a 1.29 ERA and a 30:3 K:BB ratio. His numbers have been better on the road than at home and spells bad news for Milwaukee as the Brewers are 17-53 in their last 70 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Milwaukee counters with Zach Davies who has been very solid this season and is in the midst of a four-game quality start run but he is in a tough spot against a desperate team. The Nationals are 11-4 in their last 15 games against right-handed starters. 9* (909) Washington Nationals |
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06-24-16 | Mets -167 v. Braves | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
After winning five of the first six meetings this season, the Mets have dropped four straight games against Atlanta including this series opener last night. They wasted a strong effort from Matt Harvey as the bullpen allowed two runs in the eighth inning in a 4-3 loss but should be ready to get it back tonight. Atlanta has been rolling along with wins in seven of its last eight games with the pitching being the story, allowing three runs or less in seven straight games. Despite the Thursday win, the Braves are 7-16 in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning road record. New York sends Steven Matz to the hill who is having a fine season but wins have not been coming as the Mets have lost his last four starts despite solid numbers. Eight of his 12 starts have been quality including all three appearances against the Braves this season. The Mets are 7-1 in his last eight starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance while the Braves are 9-26 in their last 35 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Atlanta turns to Aaron Blair who is coming off a rare quality outing but he was unable to pick up the win to remain winless on the season. He is 0-4 with a 7.19 ERA in 10 starts with Atlanta going just 2-8 in those games. 9* (907) New York Mets |
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06-23-16 | Cubs -155 v. Marlins | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
The Cubs were swept for the first time this season as they dropped all three games at to home to their rival St. Louis. This is just the second time all year they have dropped three straight games and the first time they avoided a fourth straight loss by blasting the Cardinals on the road 12-3 which was the start of a six-game winning streak. Chicago is 22-12 on the road which is the second best road record in baseball. After sweeping the Rockies at home, Miami avoided getting swept against Atlanta to open the week as it won 3-0 yesterday to move back to .500 at home. The offense has been nonproductive as the Marlins have been held to 11 runs over the last four games and it will not get any easier tonight. The Marlins are 14-30 in their last 44 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Jon Lester has been outstanding all season with a 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 14 starts, 11 resulting in Chicago victories. 12 of those 14 games have been quality outings including five straight and the Cubs have won all of those by a combined score of 31-13. Miami counters with Wei-Yin Chen who has been very disappointing in his first year with the team. He has a 5.22 ERA in 14 starts including a 5.98 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight home starts. The Cubs are 11-2 in their last 13 road games against left-handed starters. 9* (955) Chicago Cubs |
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06-22-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays -165 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Toronto has lost three straight games after dropping the opener of this two-game set last night but have not lost ground in the American League East as every other team is on a multiple losing skid as well. The Blue Jays were coming off a five-game road trip prior to this series and hit the road for six more after this so this game looms pretty large. Despite the defeat, the Blue Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 interleague home games against teams with a losing record. Arizona is now on a perfect 5-0 run on this roadtrip to move seven games over .500 on the road overall. Still, the Diamondbacks are 19-44 in their last 63 road games against teams with a winning record. J.A. Happ looks to turn things around for his team and he is coming off a great start last time out after a couple of poor efforts. 11 of his 14 starts on the season have been quality outings so he has been very solid overall and Toronto has won five of his six home starts. Robbie Ray is coming off a pair of quality outings but he has been all over the place this year as just six of his 14 starts have been quality performances. Going back, the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-22-16 | Rockies v. Yankees -140 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
The Yankees dropped the opener of this two-game set last night and will be out today to avoid the four-game season sweep after dropping two games in Colorado last week. The pitching had been roughed up for 27 runs in the three games but that should change today. The Rockies have won two straight games but are still under .500 on the road where they are hitting just .207 against left-handed pitching. They will face C.C. Sabathia who has been outstanding this season after a run of three pretty poor years in New York. He has a 2.20 ERA in 11 starts and has allowed no more than three runs in any of those games. The Yankees are 14-5 in his last 19 interleague starts while the Rockies are 29-69 in their last 98 road games against left-handed starters. Colorado turns to Jon Gray who is on a run of five straight quality starts but has struggled to get wins despite outstanding run support the majority of the time. However, the Rockies have given him just one run in three of his five road starts and going back, they are 2-8 in his last 10 road starts. 10* (918) New York Yankees |
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06-21-16 | Rockies v. Yankees -170 | 8-4 | Loss | -170 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Yankees are coming off a 3-3 roadtrip after dropping the final game in Minnesota on Sunday as the Twins avoided the four-game sweep. New York now heads home a game under .500 overall but four games over .500 at Yankee Stadium and have won four straight here against teams with a losing record. The Rockies avoided a four-game sweep in Miami as they took the series finale on Sunday by a 5-3 score. They are just two games under .500 on the road which is not horrible but they are 4-9 in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record. The pitching matchup is the same one that took place in Colorado last week and Ivan Nova will be out for some payback. He allowed five runs on 10 hits in five innings of work and while he has had a few rough outings of late, most have been on the road. He has a 2.64 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home in four starts with the Yankees winning three of those and going back, the Yankees are 13-4 in his last 17 home starts against teams with a losing record. Colorado counters with Chad Bettis who tossed a quality outing in his last start against New York but has had a rough go of it lately. In his previous three games following a quality start, he put up a non-quality performance and looking back, the Yankees are 15-5 in their last 20 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 9* (968) New York Yankees |
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06-19-16 | Rangers v. Cardinals -138 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with St. Louis yesterday as Texas scored two in the eighth and two in the ninth for a 4-3 victory to make it five straight wins for the Rangers. Meanwhile the Cardinals have dropped four straight games and will look to avoid a second straight sweep at home prior to heading to Chicago for a big three-game set with the Cubs. Typically, this has been a solid spot for St. Louis as the Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series. They turn to Mike Leake today who has been exceptionally solid of late as six of his last seven starts have been quality outings and in all of those, he allowed two runs or fewer. Possibly even more impressive, six of those games came on the road so he has been limited in his home starts but the lone start at Busch Stadium was arguably his best one where he did not allow a run over seven innings against the Diamondbacks. Martin Perez had a nice run going as well as he had a four-game quality start streak going before allowing four run in his last outing against Oakland. Those four quality games were all at home however and his road ERA is over a run and a half higher than his home ERA. That is an issue that has been ongoing as the Rangers are 0-5 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (980) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-19-16 | Braves v. Mets -178 | 6-0 | Loss | -178 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
The Mets trail the Nationals by six games in the National League East after losing a second straight game to the Braves yesterday but should snap out of it today. Atlanta has won four straight games which matches its longest winning streak of the season where it also had its lone series sweep of the season which came against the Marlins. The Mets are only a half-game up on the Marlins for the first Wild Card spot in the National League so an end to this losing skid is essential. Despite the two losses to open the weekend, the Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 home games against team with a losing road record while Atlanta has won just 19 of its last 69 road games. Julio Teheran has to be frustrated as he has pitched exceptional this season but has little to show for it as his 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP come with just two victories and just three wins overall for the Braves in his 14 starts. The offense and bullpen are to blame and that will not change today. He has not fared well at Citi Field the last couple years, posting a 6.28 ERA over three starts. Jacob deGrom has been a tough luck pitcher of late as he the Mets have lost his last three starts despite all being quality as they have given him just two runs of support. Still, he has been dominant at home and the Mets are 8-1 in his last nine Sunday starts. 9* (952) New York Mets |
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06-18-16 | Rangers v. Cardinals -173 | 4-3 | Loss | -173 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The current homestand has not started the way St. Louis had hoped as after losing two games to Houston, it lost the opener of this series last night 1-0 as it wasted a great performance from Michael Wacha as he was outdueled by Cole Hamels. The Cardinals are a very surprising 15-19 at home as the road success has kept them afloat in the National League Wild Card race. Still, they can build off of last night as the Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Rangers have now won four straight games and own the best record in the American League where they are currently 18 games over .500. they have been somewhat fortunate however as they are 14-4 on the season in one-run games and face a very tough test today. Carlos Martinez takes the hill and after an up and down start, he has been on a roll with a 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts, all being quality outings and all resulting in St. Louis wins. Going back, the Cardinals are 21-5 in his last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Rangers turn to Nick Martinez who was called up from Triple-A to take the place of Cesar Ramos in the rotation. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 11 Minor League starts and has not made a big lead start since last August. The Rangers dropped each of his last six road starts last year. 9* (930) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-18-16 | Rockies v. Marlins -128 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Miami took the opener of this series last night and has now won five of its last seven games at home to move within a game of .500 at Marlins Park. Going back further, the Marlins are 7-2 in their last nine games at home against teams with a losing record and the victory last night moved them to within just a half-game out of first place in the National League Wild Card spot. The Rockies had a four-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night while a solid 8-2 run was also halted in the 5-1 defeat. They have held their own on the road which is due mainly to one starting pitcher that we go contrarian against tonight and looking back they are 22-59 in their last 81 road games against teams with a winning record. Tyler Chatwood missed most of 2014 and all of 2015 because of Tommy John surgery but has come out of nowhere to put up some very impressive early season numbers. He has a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts and those numbers go down much more on the road where the Rockies are a perfect 6-0 in his six starts on the highway. This is where we get the contrarian value with Miami which sends Wei-Yin Chen to the hill. He was the big free agent signing for the Marlins but a slow start has lessened the hype. He has a 4.68 ERA but his WHIP of 1.26 shows he has not been that bad and Miami has won his last four starts at home. 10* (904) Miami Marlins |
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06-17-16 | Brewers v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Dodgers lost a tough one last night as they rallied from a 6-3 deficit to tie the game only to give up two runs in the top of the ninth for an 8-6 loss. It was the fourth loss in six games for Los Angeles which now trails San Francisco by 6.5 games in the National League West despite being just five runs behind the Giants in run differential. Despite the defeat last night, the Dodgers are still 10-4 in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Milwaukee snapped a three-game slide with the victory last night and winning on the road has not come in bunches as it is 3-6 this season on the road immediately following a road win. Additionally, the Brewers are 9-27 in their last 36 road games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers send Julio Urias to the hill and while his overall numbers are not great, he has been getting more comfortable and throwing the ball a lot better. Plus, this is by far his easiest test after facing the Mets, Cubs, Rockies and Giants in his first four starts. The Brewers are hitting just .201 on the road against left-handed pitching. Zach Davies has tossed three straight quality outings but all of those came at home and he hits the road for the first time in nearly a month where he has a 7.82 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in three starts. The Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine home games against right-handed starters. 10* (960) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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06-17-16 | Angels -134 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
We played on the Angels Monday as they dropped the series opener against the Twins but they were able to make up for it by taking the final two games and winning the series. Now it is time to start winning on the road where Los Angeles is on a four-game losing skid but this is just the third road series on the season that is coming against a losing team. Oakland took the series opener against Texas on Monday but lost the final three games by a combined score of 22-12 and now sits 12 games under .500. The 27-39 record is the second worst in the American League while its 14-19 home record is also second worst which includes a 5-12 run against teams with a losing record. The Angels send Matt Shoemaker to the mound and he is having a significant turnaround after a very rough stretch in April. Four of his last five starts have been quality outings where he has posted a 1.88 ERA and even more impressive is his 46:1 K:BB ratio over his stretch. Going back, the Angels are 14-3 in his last 17 road starts against teams with a losing record while Oakland is 6-24 in its last 30 games against right-handed starters. Oakland counters with Kendall Graveman who has been up and down all season with the latter being more prominent. He has a 5.28 ERA overall with just three of 12 starts being quality and Oakland is now 0-9 in his last nine starts with four days of rest. 10* (973) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-16-16 | Yankees -134 v. Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The streaky Yankees are at it again as after a five-game winning streak, they have dropped four in a row heading into the opener of this four-game series in Minnesota. They lost both games in Colorado to open the week and going back they are 2-7 over their last seven road games but tonight sets up a great opportunity to get rid of that horrible highway run. The Twins have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball as it is 25 games under .500 after finishing four games over .500 last season and there is no looking ahead to anything positive tonight. Minnesota has a 12-21 record at home which is the worst home record in the American League and going back, the Twins are a dismal 13-41 in their last 54 games following a loss. C.C. Sabathia left the Yankees prior to the end of last season to enter rehab and while many questioned the time of the move, it is paying huge dividends now. He has been outstanding this season as he has not allowed more than three runs in any start while posting a 2.28 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 10 starts. His numbers have been even better on the road and going back, the Yankees have won six of his last seven starts against the Twins. Kyle Gibson looks to turn around what has been a disastrous start to the season. He went on the DL after four starts with a shoulder issue and came back by allowing five runs in 5.2 innings against the Red Sox. Facing the Yankees is not ideal as he is 1-3 with a 10.72 ERA in five career starts against them. 10* (915) New York Yankees |
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06-16-16 | Rangers -115 v. A's | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
After getting swept last month by Oakland, Texas has a chance to come close to returning the favor today and continue its hot run where it is 19-6 over its last 25 games. A win here would make it five straight series wins on the road which is always a huge part of overall success in the league. Last night- the Rangers rallied from a 5-0 deficit and that only gives them more momentum heading into today before rolling into St. Louis for a three-game weekend series. Oakland has been on a horrific run as a five-game winning streak has been followed up by a 2-9 run that has put it 11 games under .500 for the season. They are four games under .500 at home and going back, they are 11-27 in their last 38 home games against teams with a winning road record. Texas gives the ball to Colby Lewis who has been sensational this season and has yet to lose a game as he is 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The Rangers are 9-4 in his 13 starts and only one of those has been a poor one as of those, 11 have been quality performances. He has owned Oakland as well with six straight quality starts, posting a 1.58 ERA in the process. Oakland counters with Daniel Mengden who is coming off an uneven start against the Reds in his Major League debut and will have a much tougher time facing a stronger offense. The Rangers are 10-3 in their last 13 games against right-handed starters. 10* (911) Texas Rangers |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -170 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
After opening the season with a 23-10 record, the White Sox have fallen off considerably as they have won just nine of their last 32c games but are still in the hunt in the American League Central. Chicago trails Cleveland by just 3.5 games and today is a pretty big game considering it heads to Cleveland for a three-game set before going to Boston for four games. The Tigers took the game last night as they have scored 20 runs in the first two games of this series but that offensive outburst should come to a halt tonight. With the White Sox now a game under .500, the Tigers are 1-6 in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Chris Sale gets the ball tonight and he should be more than ready to break out of what has been a rough four-game stretch where he has allowed 17 runs. This comes after a remarkable start to the season where he won his first nine starts with just one of those being a non-quality outing. Despite the recent slump, he has the chance to become the first 11-game winner in the bigs and he has dominated the Tigers overall in his career but especially at home. The White Sox are 6-1 in his last seven home starts where he owns a 2.89 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 108 career games. Mike Pelfrey counters for Detroit and he has been pretty average in his first season here. He is 1-6 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 12 starts with only three of those resulting in quality outings. On the road, his ERA is actually better but his WHIP is worse and Detroit is just 1-5 in his six road starts. 10* (968) Chicago White Sox |
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06-15-16 | Brewers v. Giants -207 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
The Giants are riding a four-game winning streak as they head into this series finale with Milwaukee and they are in excellent shape for the sweep. San Francisco leads the Dodgers by six games in the National League West and it would like to get out of here with a victory before hitting the road for a seven-game road trip. The Giants are 22-7 in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record. The Brewers have now dropped three straight road games and they have won just 11 road games the entire season and are again in a bad spot. Jimmy Nelson has shown that his potential is huge but he has been much better at home than on the road where his ERA is 2.5 runs better. Milwaukee is 0-6 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. San Francisco turns to Johnny Cueto who has been outstanding in his first year here. He has had two bad starts this season where he allowed six runs and both were understandable. His first came in his second start of the season against the Dodgers which happened to be his first home start in San Francisco so the pressure was certainly there. The second poor outing came against one of the worst teams in the league in Cincinnati but that of course was his former team where he spent eight seasons. Other than those, he has been Cy Young material as his other 11 starts have been quality outings and that is not good for a Milwaukee team that he has dominated over the years as he is 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 19 starts. Additionally, the Brewers are 17-50 in their last 67 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 8* (956) San Francisco Giants |
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06-14-16 | Reds v. Braves -123 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The Braves dropped the opener of this series last night to make it three straight losses to add to their Major League worst record but playing the team with the second worst National League record gives them an opportunity to bounce back today. They have just seven home wins on the season but a look at the schedule shows it has been a tough one but Atlanta has won five of its last 11 at home so it has certainly gotten better. The Reds are the second worst team in the National League and they are coming off a very rare road victory and even though it was their third straight going back to their previous roadtrip, they are just 8-20 on the highway. Going back, the Reds are 20-50 in their last 70 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game and hand the ball to Brandon Finnegan who is having a decent season but has not been getting the wins to go along with it. In 13 starts, he is just 2-4 while Cincinnati has gone just 3-10 in those 13 starts as the bullpen has really hurt him late in games. The Reds own a 6.43 bullpen ERA which is by far the worst in baseball which goes along with the fact that they are 0-8 in his last eight starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Braves have an identical 3-10 record in the 13 starts from Julio Teheran which is due to low run support which will change tonight. He has an outstanding 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and the fact Atlanta is 0-7 in his seven home starts gives us contrarian value. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves |
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06-14-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -213 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
The Blue Jays look to rebound from a bad loss last night as they were shut out by the Phillies following three straight wins over Baltimore. They are still just three games out of first place in the American League East thanks to going 16-8 over their last 24 games and the biggest part of that is they have only had a multiple-game losing streak only once as they are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss. Philadelphia snapped a four-game skid with the win last night and the struggles go further back than that. The Phillies are just 6-17 over their last 23 games, scoring two runs or less 11 times. Going back, they are 2-11 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record while going 0-6 in their last six games following a win. Marcus Stroman is in dire need of a big effort and this is the team to end what has been a horrible run. He has posted a 9.37 ERA over his last three starts and his ERA has gone up by close to a run and a half over his last five starts. He has fared well this season against poor offenses as take away three starts against Boston, his ERA goes from 4.94 to 3.76. The Phillies are 29-60 in their last 89 road games against right-handed starters and they turn to Zach Eflin who is making his Major League debut and he is being thrown into a difficult situation. He has been solid in Triple-A but this is a whole different animal and going back, the Blue Jays are 39-19 in their last 58 home games against right-handed starters. 8* (926) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-13-16 | Twins v. Angels -128 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The Angels have gotten off to a very disappointing start this season as they are nine games under .500 and currently sit 12 games behind Texas in the American League West. They were not expected to win the division but they were expected to stay in the hunt for a possible Wild Card spot and they are not even close to that right now. That being said, they have played a brutal schedule as nine of their last 10 series dating back to early May have come against teams with a winning record so they finally catch a break to start this week. The Twins have been an even bigger disappointment as after finishing four games over .500 last season, they are currently 24 games under .500 and their 19-43 record is second worst in baseball. Minnesota has only seven road wins on the season and this situation is not good as the Twins are 0-8 in their last eight road games against teams with a losing record. Ricky Nolasco gets the ball for Minnesota and like most starters on this team, he has been very inconsistent. He has a 5.17 ERA overall and while his road ERA is a lot better, just three of his six road starts have been quality outings. Jered Weaver has not been much better but is in a good bounce back spot after allowing six runs last time out. Weaver has allowed four runs or more on five different occasions this season prior to this most recent time and has followed those up with a quality outing in his next start four times. 10* (966) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-13-16 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -161 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
After opening their homestand 1-3, the Diamondbacks bounced back with a big weekend by winning both games against Miami heading into this three-game set with the Dodgers. It has been rough going for Arizona this season which was expected to at least put a scare into the Giants and dodgers in the National League West but instead it is nine games under .500 while trailing San Francisco by 10.5 games. The struggles at home are the most evident but they have a big edge on the mound tonight. The Dodgers dropped the final two games in San Francisco, each by one run, and they now trail the Giants by five games in the National League West. They are a game under .500 on the road and are just 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a losing record. Zack Greinke did not get off to a great start this season but he has an ERA under 4.00 for the first time this season after tossing a shutout in his last outing. He has actually gone two starts without allowing a run and those two games has brought his ERA down by nearly a run. He will be pretty jacked up tonight as he faces the Dodgers for the first time since leaving Los Angeles. Mike Bolsinger counters for the Dodgers and he has been fairly average in his limited action. He is 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA over four starts, none of which have been quality outings including a winless record on the road where is 3-10 in his career. 9* (956) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-12-16 | Indians -156 v. Angels | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Laying a number this big on the road may seem a little too much but this is a great situation for the Indians to bounce back from a lough loss last night. They trailed 3-0 going into the ninth inning and tied the game only to allow a run in the bottom of the frame to lose 4-3. Cleveland would like to get out of here with a series win before heading to Kansas City tomorrow for a big three-game series. The Angels snapped a five-game losing streak with the victory last night as it has been a tough season. They are just 13-18 at home as both offense and pitching have been inconsistent and they have won just one of their last six games following a win. Los Angeles turns to journeyman David Huff who is making just his third start since 2013 which show how bare the cupboard is for the Angels. This is his second start this season after he was lit up for five runs in 3.2 innings against the Yankees. Overall he has made 56 starts and 63 relief appearances and has posted a dreadful 5.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Danny Salazar has been extremely efficient with a 2.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 11 starts and he has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven outings. The Indians are 21-9 in his last 30 starts against teams with a losing record while the Angels are 7-22 in their last 29 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 9* (925) Cleveland Indians |
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06-12-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -167 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
We are going for three in a row with Toronto as it won again yesterday, putting up five runs in the sixth inning to blow open a close game. The Blue Jays are now 3.5 games behind the Orioles in the American League East and can cut into that by another game which is big at this point. Toronto heads to Philadelphia for a four-game set after this so it can turn into a huge run before the Blue Jays and Orioles meet again next weekend. Baltimore fell to 12-14 on the road and those 26 games are still nine game fewer than it has played at home and those 35 home games are the most of any team in baseball for it has had a fortunate scheduling break. Going back, the Orioles are 4-12 in their last 16 games during game four of a series. Aaron Sanchez has been excellent this season as he is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts, 10 of which have been quality. Toronto has won six of his last eight home starts going back to last season. Baltimore counters with Ubaldo Jimenez and he is having a dicey season. He has a 6.21 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 12 starts with only three of those resulting in quality performances. His numbers are even worse on the road where he has a 7.85 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in four starts, all losses. 9* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-11-16 | Dodgers v. Giants -127 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The Giants ran into a buzzsaw last night as it was their second straight game where they had to face the top guy in the rotation and while they survived David Price on Wednesday, they could not get past Clayton Kershaw last night. The loss sent them to 1-4 over their last five games with the Dodgers now sitting just three games back in the National League West. Despite the defeat last night, the Giants are an incredible 17-4 in their last 21 divisional games. The Dodgers got the win despite another poor offensive effort and their struggles at the plate are one of the most surprising of the season. Los Angeles is hitting just .231 on the season which is ahead of only the Phillies so it has been the pitching that has kept this team in the running. Obviously Kershaw is the main ingredient but Scott Kazmir has been solid as his return from what looked like a career ender back in 2011 has turned into a great story. He has had his ups and downs as only five of his 12 starts have been quality outings including just two of six on the road. One team has had his number and that is the Giants as they have tagged him for 10 runs in eight innings over two starts. Jeff Samardzija has been awesome this season and while he is coming off his worst start of the season, his previous poor outing was followed up by a gem. Only four of 12 starts have come at home where he possesses a 2.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. 10* (960) San Francisco Giants |
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06-11-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
After a brutal loss on Thursday, Toronto came back last night with an extra-inning victory last night and we will ride them again on Saturday in what is another great matchup. The Blue Jays have evened the series at a game apiece to remain 4.5-games behind the Orioles in the American League East while also getting back to .500 at home. A walkoff homerun from Edwin Encarnacion last night can carry right over into this afternoon. As mentioned yesterday, the Orioles had won five straight games prior to last night but have been fortunate to play a home heavy schedule that has featured 10 more games there than on the road where they are now a game under .500. The second go-around in Toronto for J.A. Happ has been a very good one as his 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP do not even tell the whole story. He has had two bad starts, one against the Rays and one against the Tigers last time out and take those away, his ERA drops to 2.10 with all 10 other starts being quality performances. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. Mike Wright counters for Baltimore and despite a 7-3 team record in his 10 starts, he has not been good. He is coming off a great start against Kansas City but followed up his previous three quality starts with non-quality games next time out. He is 0-3 with a 7.11 ERA in three career starts against Toronto. 10* (966) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-10-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -145 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Pittsburgh was caught in a tough situation yesterday as it was coming off loss against the Mets Wednesday night and then had to travel to Colorado for an early game yesterday as part of a makeup due to an April rainout. The Pirates not surprisingly lost yesterday but are back home for a night game so there has been plenty of time for rest. Pittsburgh now trails the Cubs by 10 games in the National League Central but is tied for second in the Wild Card standings so it is still in solid shape. The Cardinals come in with an identical 32-28 record following a series win over Cincinnati which was their third straight series win. Things will be more difficult this weekend though as St. Louis has not won a single series on the road against a team with a winning record and going back, the Cardinals are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. Gerrit Cole gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has been on a great run. Since getting hit hard by the Cubs on May 2, he has posted a 2.08 ERA in six starts, allowing three runs or fewer each time out. He has never lost to St. Louis at home, going 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA in four starts and the Pirates are 11-3 in his last 14 home starts against teams with a winning record. St. Louis counters with Michael Wacha who is in the midst of his worst season with the team as he is 2-6 with a 5.16 ERA in 12 starts including a pair of rough outings against Pittsburgh. Going back, the Cardinals are 0-7 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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06-10-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -131 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with Toronto last night as the Blue Jays blew leads of 4-1 and 5-3 and lost 6-5 in the opener of this all-important four-game set against the Orioles. They now trail Baltimore by 5.5 games in the American League East and are now actually under .500 at home after finishing last season with a 53-28 record here. The good news is that they have avoided losing streaks of late as they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. Baltimore has now won five straight games and moved to .500 on the highway with the victory last night. The Orioles have had a fortunate early season schedule as they have played 11 more games at home than on the road and going back, the Orioles are 0-4 in their last four road games against teams with a losing home record. They turn to Kevin Gausman to keep the run going but he is not in a good spot as he has struggled in this situation. He opened the season with four straight quality starts but has posted a 4.71 ERA over his last five starts and he has not fared well in Toronto with a 5.40 ERA in two games. The Orioles are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. Toronto hands the ball to Marco Estrada who had a great first season in Toronto a year ago and is even better this year. He has posted a 2.41 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 11 starts which includes a 1.30 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in five home starts, all of which have been quality performances. Going back to last season, the Blue Jays are 9-4 in his last 13 home starts. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-09-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a big early season series in the American League East and with Toronto trailing the Orioles by 4.5 games, this is a bigger series for the home team to make up ground as well as not to lose too much ground. The Blue Jays caught a break in this four-game series as they will miss Chris Tillman who is the best Orioles starter as he pitched a gem last night against the Royals. Toronto avoided the sweep in Detroit with a 7-2 victory yesterday and after an average start, the Blue Jays have won 10 of their last 14 games. The Orioles have won four straight games and have won seven of their last eight but all of those were at home where they are 24-11 and they come into this one having dropped five of their last seven road games. Marcus Stroman was expected to be the ace of the Toronto staff but he has not been that as of yet. He started strong but has faltered of late as he has been roughed up for 21 runs in his last four starts, yielding six runs or more three times. There should be no concern however and going back, the Blue Jays are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. The Orioles counter with Tyler Wilson who has been decent but inconsistent. He has a 4.39 ERA in eight starts which includes a 6.35 ERA over his last four starts, all resulting in Baltimore losses. 10* (960) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-09-16 | Astros v. Rangers +117 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 117 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
After eight straight losses to open the season against Texas, Houston finally was able to snap the skid yesterday with a 3-1 victory over the Rangers and Yu Darvish. The Astros also snapped a 12-game slide in Arlington but just like that, they come in as a favorite on Thursday afternoon for no apparent reason. They are just 12-18 on the road and have no advantage on the hill so we will take advantage of this home underdog line. The Rangers had a five-game winning streak snapped but remain three games ahead of Seattle in the American League West. They are 23-10 at home which is tied for the second best home record in baseball and that record includes a 10-3 mark as home underdogs. Martin Perez gets the ball today and he is having a very solid season with a 3.24 ERA in 12 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. He does not have a ton of wins due to early season lack of run support but it is picking up and he has been even better at home with a 2.55 ERA in seven starts, all of which have resulted in quality performances. Perez has a 1.71 ERA in six starts against Houston. Colin McHugh has been below average with a 4.97 ERA including a 5.27 ERA in five road starts. The Rangers have won six of their last seven home games against right-handed starters. 10* (956) Texas Rangers |
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06-08-16 | Red Sox v. Giants -112 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
The best pitching matchup on Wednesday takes place in the last game of the night as Boston concludes its two-game set in San Francisco. The Red Sox took the opener last night to put a halt to a 1-4 run but they have struggled on the road of late after a hot start as they are just 6-8 over their last 14 games on the highway and encounter one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The Giants dropped their third straight game last night and are 3-5 over their last eight games following a 15-2 run but do not expect this little skid to last for long. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for San Francisco and after posting a 4.50 in his first three starts, he has put up a 1.27 ERA over his last nine starts, all of which have been quality performances with the Giants winning his last eight. He has allowed one run or less in five straight starts while the Giants are 19-7 in his last 26 starts against teams with a winning record. David Price counters for Boston and he has been on a solid run as well with five straight quality starts but he has been very average overall with a 4.88 ERA in 12 starts. He has gotten a ton of run support as his 6.42 rpg is third most in baseball but he will not get close to that tonight. 10* (930) San Francisco Giants |
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06-08-16 | Cubs -177 v. Phillies | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
The Cubs lost a rare game last night as they fell 3-2 to the Phillies to drop to 40-17 on the season and we can expect a bounceback this afternoon. Their +142 run differential is by far the biggest in the league and they have been solid in being able to rebound as they are 12-4 following a loss this season while going back, they are 21-8 in their last 29 road games against teams with a losing record. The Phillies started the season red hot but have faltered of late as they are 5-13 over their last 18 games following a 24-17 start. The pitching led the way early but has taken a step back while the offense, which is hitting .233, is third worst in baseball. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games following a win and turns to Vince Velasquez who is one of those pitchers that started hot but has leveled off. He posted a 1.44 ERA through his first four starts but has put up a 6.00 ERA over his last seven starts with none of those resulting in a quality outing. The Cubs counter with John Lackey who is having a great season in his first year in Chicago with a 2.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He had a couple poor efforts early on but has posted a 1.73 ERA since the start of May with all seven starts being quality. 10* (901) Chicago Cubs |
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06-07-16 | Rays +156 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Tampa Bay took the opener of this series last night to make it four straight wins. The Rays are still four games under .500 overall but have improved to 15-15 on the road with these last four wins after starting this roadtrip 0-4. Going back, the Rays are 16-7 in their last 23 interleague road games against teams with a losing record. Arizona has now dropped six of its last eight games as the struggles continue for this underachieving team that was expected to make some noise this season with some big acquisitions. Home field has been a real problem as the Diamondbacks are just 9-21 at Chase Field this season. Zach Greinke was supposed to be the savior in the starting rotation and while he has been solid for the most part, he has a few blowups along the way. Arizona is 5-0 in his five road starts but just 3-4 in his seven home starts with only two of those resulting in quality outings. Tampa Bay counters with Matt Moore who has not been the same since coming back from injury last season but the potential is there. This has been a non-pressure role as the Rays are 3-2 in five underdog starts while going just 1-5 in six starts as a favorite. 10* (977) Tampa Bay Rays |
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06-07-16 | Cardinals v. Reds +155 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 155 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
St. Louis won its series over the weekend at home against San Francisco and hits the road again for a six-game roadtrip. The road has not been bad for the Cardinals which are 15-11 on the season but this has been a problem situation where they have won just four of their last 10 series openers. The Reds also won their series over the weekend as they took two of three from the Nationals and overall they have been playing much better as they are 6-3 over their last nine games following an 11-game losing streak. John Lamb is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed just one run in seven innings at Colorado which is certainly not an easy place to perform well at. He now heads home where he has been great, posting a 2.81 ERA in three starts but the offense has let him down which is the reason Cincinnati is 0-3 in those games. In two starts against the Cardinals last season, he did not allow a run over 11 innings of work. The Cardinals go to Mike Leake who is having a decent yet unspectacular season. He has a 3.82 ERA over 11 starts with St. Louis just 6-5 in those games and in five starts as a favorite, he has posted just two quality outings. 10* (956) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-06-16 | Angels +144 v. Yankees | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Despite identical records on the season, the Yankees come in as pretty big favorites in the opener of this four-game set. New York had a tough roadtrip where it went 4-6 and it has been average at home as well where it is just 13-12. The Angels took two of three in Pittsburgh to move over .500 on the road so the issue for them surprisingly has been their play at home. The offense has been solid on the road as their .277 road average is third best in baseball and going back, they have won six of their last seven games on the highway against right-handed starters. Tonight it is Masahiro Tanaka which is a big reason the price is as large as it is as he is a public take and his numbers have been very solid. He is coming off three straight gems, all of which came on the road where his ERA is 1.36 in six starts compared to a 4.55 ERA in five home outings. The Yankees are 2-5 in his last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game. Matt Shoemaker gets the ball for the Angels and after a slow start, he has been pitching in top form. He has a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his last three starts which includes 31:0 K:BB ratio. Additionally, the Angels are 14-2 in his last 16 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (909) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-03-16 | Nationals v. Reds +144 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 144 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
After a disastrous start on the road this season, the Reds closed their roadtrip going 4-2, gaining a lot of much needed confidence along the way. The offense exploded for 33 runs in four games in Colorado and even though it was Coors Field, that is a huge momentum boost. The Nationals are coming off a sweep in Philadelphia and have won four in a row to increase their last to three games in the National League East but feel they are a bit overpriced here. Brandon Finnegan has been a tough luck pitcher this season. His numbers are not outstanding but they are very adequate and the Reds have dropped his last eight starts despite him allowing three runs or fewer six times. Of those eight losses, five were one run defeats which shows how they could have gone either way. In the four losses at home during the stretch, he allowed 14 earned runs while the bullpen gave up an astounding 32 runs after his departure. Gio Gonzalez has been surprisingly good on the road because typically his home/road splits are the opposite. Still, he is coming off two horrific outings where he allowed 13 runs over 9.2 innings so his confidence cannot be good right now. He has dropped his last two starts in Cincinnati and going back, the Nationals are 1-7 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (958) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-03-16 | Royals +161 v. Indians | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Kansas City dropped the opener of this series on Thursday as the normally reliable bullpen allowed three runs in the eighth and ninth innings to lose 5-4. That loss snapped a six-game winning streak and decreased their lead to a game and a half over the Indians in the American League Central. The Royals are 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss. The Indians made it two straight wins which came on the heels of a three-game slide with both victories coming in walk-off fashion. They are just 3-4 on the current homestand as the pitching has been very spotty. Danny Salazar is having a very solid season as six of ten starts have been quality outings but the Indians have dropped five of his last eight outings. He has had his troubles against the Royals in his career as he is 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 10 starts with only three of those being quality outings. Edinson Volquez counters for the Royals and he has been very solid this season sans two poor outings. His other nine starts have resulted in a 2.48 ERA with seven of those being quality performances. One of those bad starts was here in Cleveland and that should provide plenty of motivation going into tonight. Going back, the Royals are 16-5 in his last 21 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (969) Kansas City Royals |
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06-02-16 | Diamondbacks +135 v. Astros | Top | 3-0 | Win | 135 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
While last night was a tough loss with Arizona, the fact it scored three runs in the ninth inning to even get to extra innings should negate any confidence lost with the defeat in 11 innings. The Diamondbacks look to avoid the four-game sweep this afternoon after dropping the previous two games at home in the first two games of this home-and-home set. Houston is slowly moving in the right direction with five straight wins but it still remains four games under .500 overall. The offense continues to be below average as the Astros .235 average is second worst in the American League. They will be hard pressed to have success tonight against Zack Greinke who has been up and down but is in good position as he has won his last three starts, two of which were quality. He has a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four road starts, all resulting in Arizona wins and one of those was his lone daytime start which was his best start of the season where he allowed just one run in eight innings at St. Louis. Dallas Keuchel is having a miserable season as only five of his 11 starts have been quality. Five of the non-quality outings resulted in him allowing at least five runs each time out and Houston is just 2-6 in his last eight starts. 10* (917) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-01-16 | Diamondbacks +155 v. Astros | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Houston is slowly starting to turn its season around as it has won two straight and seven of its last eight games following a sweep of two-game in Arizona to start off this four-game home-and-home set. The Astros remain 7.5 games behind Texas in the American League West so there is still a lot of work to be done. Arizona had a two-game winning streak snapped as it has been unable to get a big run going. While the Diamondbacks have struggled at home with a 9-20 records, they have been above average on the road, going 14-11 through their first 25 road games. Robbie Ray has done his share on the road as he has a 2.63 ERA in five road starts but Arizona has gone just 1-4 in those games due to giving him no run support. Ray is getting just 2.8 rpg in those five starts including receiving three runs or fewer four times. The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Mike Fiers should be able to help out the Arizona offense as he has been all over the place this season. He is coming off his worst start as he allowed seven runs in just 3.2 innings against the Angels which raised his ERA to 5.20 overall of the season. The Astros are 1-5 in his last six starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (977) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-31-16 | Reds +175 v. Rockies | Top | 4-17 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Reds won yesterday in Colorado to make it two wins in their last three games following an 11-game losing streak that included six straight road losses. After opening this roadtrip by scoring three runs in the first three games, Cincinnati has scored 27 runs over its last four games so the offense has been starting to click. The Rockies have dropped three straight games and are just 3-9 over their last 12 games so putting them at a price this high seems very overaggressive. The significant home field advantage the Rockies used to have in past years is there no more as they have just nine wins at Coors Field this season. Cincinnati will activate Jon Moscot after missing just over a month with inflammation in his surgically repaired non-throwing shoulder. The non-throwing part is the key. He made three rehab starts at Louisville with his last start being solid where he did not allow a run over six innings. Colorado turns to Jon Gray who has been all over the place this season and in his tenure with the Rockies, he has been very shaky and is now laying his highest price of the season by far. Going back, the Rockies are 4-12 in his last 16 starts. 10* (911) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-31-16 | Padres +162 v. Mariners | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
The Padres dropped the opener of this series yesterday and fell to 1-6 on the current roadtrip with the pitching being the biggest liability. San Diego has allowed 23 runs over the last three games but that changes today. The Mariners snapped a three-game slide with the win yesterday after getting swept by the Twins which shows how inconsistent they can be and in no way should they be favored by this amount. Going back, the Mariners are just 3-7 in their last 10 home games. James Shields has been great this season for San Diego but has just two wins which is due to a lack of run support as he has been a very tough luck pitcher. Eight of his 10 starts have been quality outings including three of four on the road where he has a 2.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Shields faced the Mariners twice last season, allowing just three runs in 12.2 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off a pair of quality outings but he has been inconsistent this season with a 4.33 ERA over his first 10 starts. He has been even worse at home as he has a 5.55 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in four starts with the Mariners going just 1-3 in those games. 10* (927) San Diego Padres |
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05-28-16 | Pirates +138 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Pittsburgh took the opener of this series on Friday and has now won five straight games to keep pace with the Cubs in the National League Central. The Pirates are now three games over .500 on the road and going back, they are 6-2 in their last eight road games against teams with a winning record. Texas had its two-game winning streak snapped last night as it remains a game and a half behind Seattle in the American League West. The Rangers have been solid at home and they are excited to finally get Yu Darvish back after him not pitching for 22 months following elbow issues and Tommy John surgery. He is already an overpriced favorite but will be limited to right around 80 pitches tonight. The Pirates counter with Juan Nicasio who has been hot and cold this season but he is in a good spot here as he is as fresh as he has been since his season opener. His Sunday start against Colorado was postponed after one inning, and his rotation turn was skipped so he is pitching on basically 11 days rest. 10* (979) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-27-16 | White Sox +148 v. Royals | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
*Same play from the Thursday rainout. Chicago rolls into Kansas City after losing the final three games at home against Cleveland and it was a bad homestand overall where the White Sox were just 3-7. Their lead in the American League Central has shrunk to a half-game and it will not be easy to keep hold of it with a tough roadtrip. The Royals meanwhile have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and are just two games behind Chicago in the division. They have been solid at home but laying this number with this pitching matchup seems a little overaggressive. Danny Duffy made 16 relief appearances this season before coming out of the bullpen to fill in for the injured Kris Medlen. While he has pitched well, he has been extremely limited to how far he can go as he has tossed just 3.0 and 4.1 innings in his two starts, throwing only 48 and 63 pitches respectively. The majority of his work last season came as a starter as he was pretty average. The White Sox counter with Miguel Gonzalez who is making his fifth start since getting called up and he is coming off his best effort of the season. He allowed two runs in six innings while striking out eight and issuing no walks. That happened to come against the Royals so he comes into this follow up start against Kansas City with a lot of confidence. 10* (921) Chicago White Sox |
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05-25-16 | Padres +139 v. Giants | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
San Francisco has had the Padres number this season as it has taken all eight meetings thus far and goes for the third series sweep of the season. The Giants are now on a 12-1 run and sitting in first place in the National League West by 4.5 games over the Dodgers. San Diego is now 9.5 games back in the division and looks to snap a three-game skid today before heading to Arizona for a three-game set over the weekend. While the struggles against the Giants are evident, the Padres have a solid edge in the pitching matchup today which is not being taken into account with this line. James Shields has been great this season for San Diego but has just two wins which is due to a lack of run support which should change today. Seven of his nine starts have been quality outings including two of three on the road where he has a 2.14 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Giants counter with Jake Peavy who has only one win and that is due to horrible pitching. In nine starts, he has an 8.21 ERA and 1.90 WHIP and he will not be long for the rotation if this continues. Just one of his five home starts has resulted in a quality performance. 10* (905) San Diego Padres |
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05-25-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals +165 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
The Cubs got to Michal Wacha last night for six runs in the first inning and never looked back on their way to a 12-3 victory. The Cardinals are now a game under .500 at home after finishing last season with the best home record in baseball and certainly have a challenge today to try and win this series. Chicago snapped a three-game slide with the win last night and going back further, it has been on a very inconsistent run. After a seven-game winning streak at the beginning of May, the Cubs are just 5-8 over their last 13 games. There is not much bad to say about Jake Arrieta but we are going with the contrarian value here. Chicago has opened 9-0 in his first nine starts just like the other Chicago did with Chris Sale but dropped his first start last night. St. Louis is the only place where Arrieta does not have a win where he has started more than one game. Carlos Martinez has lost his last four starts after opening 4-0 so there is the contrarian aspect on this side as well. He has not been horrible so there is no reason for concern and going back, the Cardinals are 12-4 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (904) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-24-16 | Mets +155 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The Mets won the opener of this series last night which was their fourth straight victory to pull to within a half-game of the Nationals in the National League East. Washington has now lost three straight home games and while that typically is a good spot to play on, there is a greater contrarian angle that we are going with. Stephen Strasburg has gotten off to an outstanding start this season as he has accounted for exactly one-third of the Nationals victories. Washington has yet to lose any of his starts as it is a perfect 9-0 in his games and to no surprise, the Nationals are paying the price for it tonight. He is typically a big favorite to begin with but it is overadjusted and too much here against a quality team. Matt Harvey meanwhile has seen some struggles this season. He has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his nine starts but has allowed five or more runs in his other three outings. He is coming off a pair of the latter and it was Washington that lit him up last time out but expect adjustments to be made for a Harvey rebound tonight. The Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record while the Nationals are 2-7 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning record. 10* (951) New York Mets |
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05-24-16 | Phillies +171 v. Tigers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
While we are not buying the successful start that the Phillies have produced, we are not buying Detroit being favored by this big of a margin because of a recent solid run. The Phillies are five games over .500 after losing the opener of this series last night and with upcoming series against the Cubs and Nationals, the final two games of this three-game set are pretty important. The Tigers have won three straight and seven of their last eight games to move to .500 overall and pull within four games of the White Sox in the American League Central. They hand the ball to Justin Verlander tonight and he is on a run of three straight quality outings, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in the process. Seven of nine starts have been quality but in the other two, he allowed seven runs each time out so the possibly of a blowup is always there. Philadelphia counters with Jeremy Hellickson who is coming off a pair of quality starts following an inconsistent start to the season. Five of his nine starts have come on the road and in those, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and the Tigers have been one of his favorite opponents over the years as he has a 1.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five career starts. 10* (977) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-22-16 | Mariners v. Reds +145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
The Mariners have come into Cincinnati and taken the first two games of this series as their top two pitchers have posted a pair of gems with the bullpen backing them up with solid performances. On the flip side, the Reds have now dropped six straight games including four straight at home but we are taking the contrarian angle today before they take off an a 10-game roadtrip. Alfredo Simon is coming off a dreadful performance in Cleveland where he allowed 10 runs in just 4.1 innings but that came after a pair of quality starts which were at home. He got roughed up by the Cubs in his only bad start at home but his other three starts were all solid. Seattle counters with Wade Miley who has been up and down and no way should he be this big of a favorite on the road. He has a 4.354 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in five road starts but has been fortunate to get a ton of run support which is something we will not expect here in a bounce back performance from Simon. 10* (980) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-21-16 | Nationals +130 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The Nationals are riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching as they have allowed three runs total over this stretch to extend their lead in the National League East to two games over the Phillies. Miami meanwhile has lost three straight games and it is a significant favorite here based on one reason and one reason only. Jose Fernandez. It is pretty well documented how good he has pitched at home throughout his young career and he has been solid again this season with Miami winning three of his four home starts. He has actually pitched better on the road this season as his home ERA is 3.42 which is very good but far from dominating. Joe Ross has been a huge surprise in the starting rotation as he is second on the team in starting pitching ERA and despite coming off a pair of non-quality outings, we can expect a bounce back here against the Marlins. He has a career 2.20 ERA against Miami, all of which has taken place this season and going back, the Nationals are 4-1 in his last five starts against National League East opponents. 10* (909) Washington Nationals |
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05-21-16 | Rangers +137 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The Astros continue to pile up losses following their second straight defeat in the opener of this series last night. Houston is sitting in last place in the American League West, eight games behind Seattle and looks the part of a much different team that put together a magical season a year ago. Texas is in the mix as it trails the Mariners by just a game and a half and the victory last night was a big one as the Rangers snapped a three-game skid after getting swept in Oakland to start the week. Cesar Ramos gets the call tonight and while he is winless on the season, he has pitched well in his first two starts, allowing four runs in 10.1 innings against the Blue Jays and Yankees. He has never started against Houston which is a good thing yet he has a terrific 1.46 ERA against the Astros in 10 relief appearances. The Astros give the ball to Mike Fiers who is off to an up and down season which makes him overpriced in this spot. He was favored by -156 against the 10-31 Twins and now is favored just slightly less against a 12.5 games better than Minnesota. The Rangers have won four of their last five against right-handed starters. 10* (925) Texas Rangers |
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05-20-16 | Royals +158 v. White Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 158 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The White Sox got another gem from Chris Sale last night as he improved to 9-0 on the season which is the same amount of games Chicago is over .500 on the season. Despite the victory yesterday, the White Sox are just 2-6 over their last eight games and are laying a massive number against an obviously quality team. The Royals are coming off a 4-2 homestand, winning their respective series over Atlanta and Boston and are now right at .500 on the season which has put them 4.5 games behind Chicago in the American League Central which makes this a very important three-game series. Dillon Gee will be making his second start of the season following a decent effort against the Braves, a team that has seen him numerous times while he was with the Mets. The White Sox do not have that luxury as they have never faced Gee who brings in a 2.38 ERA on the road over 11.1 innings. Jose Quintana has been outstanding for Chicago, a big reason the line is huge, as he has a 1.54 ERA over eight starts. This is not the team he wants to face though as he is 1-6 with a 4.27 ERA, his highest ERA against any team he has started six or more times against. The Royals are 11-4 in their last 15 games against left-handed starters. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals |
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05-20-16 | Braves +160 v. Phillies | Top | 7-1 | Win | 160 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
We won with the Braves two nights ago and will come back with them again tonight as they open a three-game set at Philadelphia. Atlanta lost three of four at Pittsburgh after taking one of three in Kansas City so the road has been a struggles but not nearly as bad as they have been at home where they are a dreadful 2-17. The Phillies remain one of the biggest surprises in baseball with a 24-17 record following a pair of wins over Miami and they are just a game behind Washington in the National League East. They are seven games over .500 yet are -28 in run differential, by far the biggest variance of any team with a winning record. Aaron Nola has been a big part of the success as he has tossed five straight quality starts, all resulting in Philadelphia wins so we are taking the contrarian angle here as the moneyline is now the highest it has been all season for the Phillies. Matt Wisler is having a similarly successful season as he has a 3.14 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts with five of his last six starts being quality outings. The Phillies are 4-11 in their last 15 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and despite the hot start, this is certainly a spot they can struggle in. 10*(953) Atlanta Braves |
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05-19-16 | Giants v. Padres +139 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Giants have won the first two games of this series thanks to a pair of complete game gems from Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto which moved their winning streak to seven games including six straight on the road. They are favored more tonight than they were last night however despite a lesser than favorable pitching matchup than Wednesday and we will jump on the home underdog. The Padres have dropped three straight games as the offense has totally shut down by scoring just four runs total over this stretch. The Giants are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game while the Padres are 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Jeff Samardzija looks to keep the pitching success going for San Francisco and granted, he has pitched good enough to do so. He has tossed three straight quality outings, his second such three-game stretch this season, and after the first one, he blew up by allowing five runs in 5.2 innings which happened to come against the Padres at the end of last month. James Shields counters for San Diego and he too has been very solid this season by posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through eight starts, six of which have been quality. In two career home starts at Petco Park against the Giants, he has a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings. 10* (910) San Diego Padres |
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05-18-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +174 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Milwaukee upset Chicago yesterday and while many will be backing the Cubs to snap their two-game losing streak, laying this type of number on the road in this situation is unwise. Chicago is just 2-4 over its last six games following an eight-game winning streak as the offense has been held in check in those four losses, scoring just seven runs total. Milwaukee meanwhile has won two straight and after a dreadful 8-15 start, the Brewers have gone 9-7 over their last 16 games including a 6-3 record at home. They send Jimmy Nelson to the hill tonight and he has been very solid with a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in eight starts with Milwaukee going 5-3. He has been better at home as in five outings, he has a 3.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with four of those resulting in quality performances. John Lackey is riding a three-game quality streak but all of those were at home and his home/road splits have been ugly. In four home starts, He has a 2.12 ERA but in three road starts, he has a 5.79 ERA and even that is skewed as his one good outing on the highway came against his former team the Cardinals so he was jacked up for that. He has allowed six runs in each of his other two road starts. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-18-16 | Braves +183 v. Pirates | Top | 3-1 | Win | 183 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The Braves fell behind last 9-0 in the second inning but give them credit behind former Triple-A Gwinnett manager Brian Snitker who is managing on an interim basis after the firing of Fredi Gonzalez as there was no quit. Tonight presents a great opportunity to snap their three-game losing streak where breaking the Pirates three-game winning streak. Pittsburgh has been pretty inconsistent this season however and going back, the Pirates are 1-4 in their last five after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Last season, Shelby Miller was the tough luck Braves pitcher as he won just six games despite a 3.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and that claim goes to Julio Teheran this season. He has yet to win despite a 3.17 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and those numbers are even better on the road but he is getting just 2.1 rpg of support. Atlanta finished with season highs in runs and hits (15) last night so carrying that into tonight is a good possibility. The Braves are 9-3 in his last 12 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Francisco Liriano has been inconsistent just like his team and is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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05-17-16 | Giants v. Padres +161 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The Padres are back home following a solid 4-3 roadtrip but they were unable to make up any ground in the National League West as they are 4.5 games back in the National League West which is far from insurmountable. San Diego has not exactly lit it up at home as it is just 8-11 but it is hard to pass up a number this big which is based on name. The Giants took all four games in Arizona to open up its roadtrip and overall they are now on a five-game winning streak to move to four games over .500 to take over first place in the division. Madison Bumgarner has been on a solid run with five straight quality outings, the last four resulting in San Francisco wins so the contrarian angle is in play here. He has struggled on the road however with a 3.94 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in three starts but has been bailed out by solid run support. In two starts in San Diego last season, he posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. San Diego turns to Colin Rea who has been decent and take away bookend starts at the Rockies and Cubs and his ERA drops from 4.24 to 2.61 in his other five starts. 10* (912) San Diego Padres |
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05-17-16 | Red Sox v. Royals +118 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 118 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is the same play from Monday that was rained out. The Red Sox are coming off a very successful homestand where they went 6-1, the lone defeat coming by a run against the Astros after blowing a 5-1 lead. Boston is now 10 games over .500 which has it tied with Baltimore atop the American League East. It has been a slow start for the Royals as they are a game under .500 and that record along with the success of the Red Sox has them in the rare role of home underdog. Another piece of that has been the excellent pitching of Rick Porcello who is 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through his first seven starts. The last five have come against very average opposition and his two starts against the Blue Jays resulted in a 5.11 ERA. Kansas City counters with Yordano Ventura who has been up and down but he is coming off a quality outing in his last start and he now returns home following three straight starts on the road. At home, he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in three starts, all resulting in Royals victories. Going back, the Royals are 14-3 in his last 17 starts against the American League East. 10* (956) Kansas City Royals |
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05-17-16 | Reds +201 v. Indians | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Cincinnati got crushed in the opener of this series as it lost 15-6 last night as the Indians broke it open with eight runs in their final three innings at the plate. The Reds remain in last place in the National League Central as the road struggles are well documented but this is an excellent bounceback spot. Cleveland snapped a two-game skid with the victory last night and they have been all over the place and are currently just a game over .500. The Indians won four straight games in early May but since then they have lost four straight games following a win. Now they come in favored by the biggest amount they have been all season. Danny Salazar has a lot to do with that as he has a 1.90 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in seven starts but Cleveland is just 3-4 in those games. The offense has given him 6.7 rpg in the three wins and just 2.0 rpg in the five losses. The numbers of Alfredo Simon suggest that the Indians will get the former tonight but I do not see it. His overall numbers are horrid for sure but it is due to two bad starts against the Cubs where he allowed 13 runs in just 3.1 innings. He has a 3.97 ERA in his other four starts and pitched well against the Indians last season. 10* (925) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-15-16 | Pirates +141 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
The Cubs are the best team in baseball, and by a pretty wide margin, as they are 27-8 while holding a nine-game lead in the National League Central over Pittsburgh and St. Louis. They got another dominant performance from Jake Arrieta on Saturday and they look to go for the series sweep today. Pittsburgh is just 3-4 on this current roadtrip and could use some momentum heading into its big homestand starting tomorrow. Despite the fact the Cubs have lost just eight games, we are getting a great price with the Pirates ace Gerrit Cole even though he has been inconsistent this season. He is coming off a quality outing which was his fourth in his last five games and while that one non-quality start came against the Cubs, a change in venue can help here as he has been better on the road than at home. Additionally, he is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA in six starts at Wrigley Field, all being quality performances. Jon Lester counters for Chicago and he has been extremely solid this season but the Pirates have been bashing lefties this season, hitting .291. Going back, the Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven road games against left-handed starters while the Cubs are 2-5 in Lester's last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (907) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-14-16 | Reds +138 v. Phillies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
While there are plenty of surprises in baseball this season, both good and bad, the biggest so far has to be the Phillies. After posting just 63 wins all of last season, Philadelphia already is a third of the way to that as it is 21-15 and just a game and a half out of first place in the National League East. The Phillies have not been favored much this season, only eight times in fact, and tonight represents the biggest moneyline of the season giving the Reds solid value. Cincinnati is off to a slow start which many expected but it is a respectable 4-4 over its last eight games with three of those losses coming by just a single run. While the Reds have struggled on the road, their offense has actually been better than the Phillies offense at home and starting pitching will play a big factor tonight. Tim Adleman has gotten off to a solid Major League start as he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in two outings covering 11 innings. If not for giving up two home runs, his numbers would be even better but he should not worry about that tonight as the Phillies are second to last in baseball in home runs. The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola who is showing why he has been labeled a star of the future as he has tossed four straight quality outings but all were on the road and he brings in an 8.25 home ERA into this one. 10* (955) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-14-16 | Twins +176 v. Indians | Top | 6-3 | Win | 176 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The Twins will be out to avoid their ninth straight loss after dropping the opener of this series last night. The season has gotten off to a rough start for Minnesota which many thought could contend in the American League Central after posting an 83-79 record last season. The Indians finished a game over .500 last season and are now two games over .500 this season but remain very inconsistent in doing so. Despite the win, the Indians are 4-12 in their last 16 games against team with a winning percentage below .400. Ervin Santana gets the ball for Minnesota and despite the Twins going 0-5 in his five starts, he has not pitched that bad which gives him contrarian value. Going back to last season, Santana has allowed three runs or less in 12 straight starts. While Santana is just 4-10 in his career against the Indians in 19 starts, he's limited them to three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 16. Corey Kluber is coming off a rough outing, something that has become more common the last two seasons as it was rarely seen during his 2014 Cy Young campaign. Last September against the Twins, he allowed eight runs over 9.2 innings in a pair of losses, leaving him at 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 15 career starts in this series which is far from dominant. While Kluber may still be the ace of this team, he has not shown much of that. 10* (969) Minnesota Twins |
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05-13-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +142 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The home struggles continued for Arizona last night as it dropped the opener of this series to fall to 5-13 on the season at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks got another uneven performance from Zack Greinke who has struggled in his first season in Arizona and it sends a similar pitcher to the hill tonight. The Giants have not been tearing things up as they have won two straight games but going back, they are just 13-16 over their last 29 games and seven of the overall wins have come with Johnny Cueto on the hill. Tonight, it is Jeff Samardzija who has been solid but the winning results are not great as San Francisco is just 4-3 in his seven starts including a 2-2 record on the road. He has not fared well at Chase Field with a 6.75 ERA in two starts. Shelby Miller is the pitcher mentioned above as he has struggled early in the season following a great year in Atlanta last season. He is coming off a quality outing however and that was his first of the season which could give him a big boost heading into tonight. 10* (912) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-13-16 | White Sox v. Yankees +141 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
The White Sox are one of the biggest surprises in baseball as they are 23-12 which is the best record in the American League while their 13-7 road record is second only to the Mariners 13-6 mark. On the flip side, the Yankees have been a big disappointment as they are off to a 14-19 start and sit seven games behind Baltimore in the American League East. They are playing better though, going 5-2 on this current homestand and going back, the Yankees are 6-1 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. This is the ultimate in contrarian plays when looking at the starting pitchers in this matchup. Chris Sale has been outstanding as he is 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA in seven starts but he is not going to go undefeated all season and Yankee Stadium has not been kind as Chicago is 0-3 in his three career starts there. Conversely, Luis Severino is 0-5 with a 6.12 ERA in six starts, all being Yankees losses. With the same thinking, he will not go winless and last September, he shut out the White Sox for six innings. 10* (916) New York Yankees |
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05-12-16 | Astros +143 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Looking at these records, they should be reversed based on last season and expectations for this season but the fact is the Astros are underachieving while the Red Sox are overachieving. Boston has won four in a row following a home sweep of Oakland where it scored 13, 13 and 14 runs in the three games but that offense cannot keep it up. Houston has won three of its last four games so it is moving in the right direction. Anytime you can get a reigning Cy Young winner at an underdog price this big, it is worth the take despite Dallas Keuchel getting off to a poor start. He started off fine with a 2.18 ERA through his first three starts but a rough three-game stretch where he posted an 8.82 ERA was a shocker. He bounced back with a quality outing last time out as he allowed two runs in seven innings against the Mariners and going back, the Astros are 21-5 in his last 26 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. David Price has not lived up to his monster contract as he has been all over the place with just two of six starts resulting in quality performances. He is 4-1 as he has been bailed out with 6.6 rpg of support but that does not happen tonight. 10* (963) Houston Astros |
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05-11-16 | Royals +135 v. Yankees | Top | 7-3 | Win | 135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
The Royals have dropped the first two games of this series to fall two games under .500 and they now trail the White Sox by seven games in the American League Central. It has been a slow start for the reigning World Series champions but tonight presents a good bounce back opportunity. Despite the two wins over Kansas City, the Yankees are still five games under .500and I think they are overpriced based on their struggles to date. Michael Pineda takes the hill for the Yankees and he has been up and down even though he has been performing more toward the former right now. He has allowed a pair of runs in each of his last two starts after getting roughed up by Tampa Bay which was his second poor start at home this season where his ERA is now 6.95 compared to 3.27 on the road. The Royals counter with Yordano Ventura who has struggled of late which is part of the reason Kansas City is a significant underdog. We go contrarian once again based on that and after posting two straight starts where he allowed five runs over four innings, we should see a dramatic improvement here. Going back, the Royals are 20-6 in his last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (921) Kansas City Royals |
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05-10-16 | Brewers +153 v. Marlins | Top | 10-2 | Win | 153 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Miami won the opener of this series last night behind a solid performance from Jose Fernandez which snapped a two-game skid. The Marlins are three games over .500 and three games out in the National League East. The Brewers fell to 2-3 on this current roadtrip and while the offense was handcuffed last night, they came in averaging 6.6 rpg in their previous nine games. We played against Tyler Chatwood last night and we are playing against Adam Conley tonight for much of the same contrarian reasoning. Conley is coming off a pair of solid efforts where he allowed no runs covering 13 innings but previous to that, he opened the season with just one quality start in his first four games. Zach Davies counters for Milwaukee and while his numbers look awful, he has gotten progressively better with his last start culminating in a quality performance. The Brewers are 0-4 in his four starts which is partly the reason he is in his biggest underdog spot of the season. 10* (953) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-10-16 | Tigers +146 v. Nationals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 146 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The Tigers lost a tough one last night as Clint Robinson hit a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth to secure a 5-4 Washington win. That snapped a four-game skid for the Nationals while adding to the losing skid for Detroit which has now reached seven games. Detroit sends its top pitching prospect to the hill tonight as Michael Fulmer makes his third career start. His first outing was not that bad as he allowed two runs over five innings and he was hurt by the long ball in his second start against the Indians. Facing the Nationals may seem daunting but they have struggled offensively with a .239 average, fifth worst in the National League, including .228 against righties. The Tigers are hitting .266 against right-handed pitching and they look to solve Joe Ross who has gotten off to a great start with a 1.23 ERA in five starts, four of which have been quality. The Nationals are just 1-4 in their last five against right-handed starters while the Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games against righty starters. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks +136 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 136 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
We are going contrarian with Arizona here based on the starting pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks are coming off a sweep in Atlanta over the weekend after getting swept in Miami prior to that. They are now 10-6 on the road and going back, the Diamondbacks are 35-17 in their last 52 road games against teams with a losing record. Colorado took care of San Francisco on Sunday to split the series and come away with a 6-4 roadtrip. Home field has not been kind this season as the Rockies are just 4-8 while losing five straight and heading back further, they are 2-7 in their last nine home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Tyler Chatwood has been on fire and that is one half of the contrarian angle as he has not allowed a run over his last two starts covering 14.1 innings. Run support has been an issue at home where he has received just three runs total with the Rockies going 0-2. The Diamondbacks counter with Archie Bradley who made his first start of the season against the Giants back in April and it was not pretty but after a great run at AAA Reno, he has been recalled. Back to last season, the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in his last four starts against the National League West. 10* (907) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-07-16 | Mets v. Padres +135 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego has won the first two games of this series against two of the best Mets pitchers thanks to great pitching and we expect that to continue tonight. After allowing 13 runs back on April 27, the Padres have allowed just 13 runs over their last eight games. After an eight-game winning streak, the Mets have dropped four of their last six with an inconsistent offense and they are in position to be shut down again. James Shields has been a tough luck pitcher this season as he finally won his first game last time out after the Padres dropped his first five starts. He has pitched good enough to many more however as five of his six starts have been quality outings and overall he has posted a solid 3.23 ERA. His only poor start came in Colorado where he has struggled at in the past and run support has been the big issue as he is getting just 1.3 rpg behind him. Bartolo Colon is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed no runs in eight innings against the Braves which makes this a perfect time to go against him. In his last two starts against San Diego, he has allowed 10 runs in just 7.1 innings and going back, the Mets are 0-5 in his last five starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (914) San Diego Padres |
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05-05-16 | Nationals +138 v. Cubs | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Cubs are on a historic pace and are off to their best start in over a century following a sweep in Pittsburgh where they outscored the Pirates 20-5 thanks to solid starts from their big three. They are 13-3 on the road which is the best road record in baseball but not by as much as you would think as Washington comes in with an 11-4 record on the highway. Not to be outdone, the Nationals are off to their best start since 1979 when they were in Montreal so the fact they are big underdogs here is a bit perplexing. Chicago has the best ERA in baseball thanks to sub-2.00 ERAs from Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Jason Hammel but Kyle Hendricks has not helped with the overall ream ERA with his sitting at 3.91. He is the only starter with two losses and his run support has not helped matters as he is getting just 3.0 rpg. There is a strong chance that does not get better as Joe Ross has quietly put together a fantastic start to the season as he has a 0.79 ERA through four starts. He was forced to leave his third start after two innings with a blister but he was given extra rest and his last start showed no lingering effects. 10* (907) Washington Nationals |
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05-05-16 | Diamondbacks +135 v. Marlins | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
After a poor start to the season, Miami has caught fire with wins in nine of its last 10 games which has come after a 5-11 record in its first 16 games. The Marlins success during this stretch has been mostly on the road surprisingly as they are 10-5 on the highway compared to just 4-7 at home. Arizona expected to make some strides this season but that has not been the case as it is just 12-17 following its fifth straight loss last night. This is the contrarian play to end the series before the Diamondbacks head to Atlanta. Robbie Ray looks to bounce back from a pair of bad outings as he was tagged for 10 runs in seven innings against the Pirates and Rockies but those came at home where Chase Field has yielded a ton of runs this season. In two road starts, he has a 1.46 ERA, both of which have been quality outings. Miami turns to Adam Conley who is coming off a no-hitter which of course did not count since he was pulled after 7.2 innings and 116 pitches. It was an encouraging effort that came out of nowhere after he had allowed four runs in each of his last two starts so we can expect a regression to that. 10* (903) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-04-16 | Twins +139 v. Astros | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Two underachieving teams conclude their three-game set tonight as Minnesota and Houston go for the series win after splitting the first two games. The Twins took the opener prior to losing last night 6-4 behind a rough outing from Alex Meyer who was making his first Major League start. Minnesota dropped to 8-19 on the season but the Astros improved to just 9-18 and showing what a different season it is compared to last year, they did not lose their 18th game until May 27. Even worse, Houston is 0-8 this season following a win. Phil Hughes takes the hill for the Twins and while his numbers look average, he has been efficient for the most part as in five starts, four have resulted in quality outings. He has been hurt by poor run support but that should change here against Mike Fiers who has been much less consistent. Only two of five starts have been quality outings including just one of three at home. The Astros are 0-4 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (971) Minnesota Twins |
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