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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1 | Top | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
Saskatchewan comes in at 8-2 as it is riding a seven-game winning streak. The last five games have been very tight with the biggest margin of victory being six points so any of those games could have gone the other way. Hamilton meanwhile is only 2-7 on the season with five of those losses coming by a touchdown or less so just the opposite of the Roughriders where it could have more wins than it does. Hamilton has actually outgained five of its nine opponents this season but it has lost three of those games. In total, the Tiger Cats are outgaining opponents by an average of 19.5 ypg while on the other side, Saskatchewan is dead even in yardage differential despite being six games over .500. The Roughriders have outgained only half of their opponents including just two of five on the road. The fact that the Tiger Cats are favored here is a surprise to some and because of that, Saskatchewan is getting the vast majority of the betting action here. Hamilton will be out for some payback here as it has dropped four straight meetings in this series including the first one this season as well as the Grey Cup from last season. This is the first opportunity that Hamilton will host the Roughriders since that Grey Cup defeat. Two situations favor the home side here. First, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on teams that are revenging a same season loss versus opponent and coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (298) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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09-06-14 | Calgary Stampeders v. Edmonton Eskimos +3 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
Calgary and Edmonton will meet for the second time in five days and the Eskimos will be out to avoid the annual holiday home-and-home sweep for the third straight season as well as looking to avoid the three-game season series sweep. Edmonton is 0-2 against the Stampeders and 7-0 against every other team and it wants to reverse that after losing Monday 28-13 while getting outgained by 158 yards. The Eskimos were without starting quarterback Mike Reilly who is nursing an injured thumb and while he is questionable for Saturday, the situation is a lot different this time around. Last week, backup quarterback Matt Nichols was told the day before the game that he would get the start so his preparation for the game was little to none. He has been taking snaps with the first team all week so he is more prepared should he have to make the start again. Also, All Pro slotback Fred Stamps, who has missed four consecutive games with a lower-body injury, was on the field and felt good about the work he put in and should be back which is a big boost to the offense. Calgary has won and covered four straight games and with just one loss on the season, by one point no less, it is favored for a reason. That is putting the vast majority of the public on the Stampeders which makes this is a big contrarian play. We have two solid situations favoring Edmonton. First, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive straight up losses going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (496) Edmonton Eskimos |
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09-01-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
How bad is the East Division in the CFL? Toronto has a two-game edge in the win column despite being 3-6 on the season so that shows how bad things are below the Argonauts. But even with that, the fact that Toronto is a road favorite here is a surprise even if it is against a team with just one victory. Hamilton has gotten off to a rough start after making it to the Grey Cup Final a season ago as it is 1-6 with the lone victory coming against expansion Ottawa earlier in the season. That victory has been sandwiched by three-game losing skids and the current one includes a 0-3 ATS mark. Four of Hamilton's losses have been by a touchdown or less though and it has not had an easy schedule so far but the Tiger Cats will have an edge here. They are coming off their bye week and they are making their home debut at the brand new Tim Hortons Field. The 22,500-seat stadium was originally scheduled to open in July, but has been plagued with delays, many attributed to the unusually long and cold winter. The Tiger Cats have been playing their home games at McMaster University so this is a big boost. The Argonauts are getting outscored by close to three ppg while Hamilton is getting outscored by 5.1 ppg which is a minimal difference. The big difference though is with the home/road splits as the Tiger Cats are just about dead even at home while Toronto is getting outscored by 8.2 ppg on the road. Hamilton falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season. This situation is 59-26 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (286) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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08-24-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders +3 v. B.C. Lions | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
After slow starts for each team, both Saskatchewan and British Columbia are riding winning streaks with the Roughriders on a four-game winning streak and the Lions on a three-game winning streak. The short price should have the majority on the home side but we will be going against that with Saskatchewan coming in with some revenge in mind. The Roughriders lost back in mid-July at home by 13 points against British Columbia and that was their last defeat before this current winning streak. We played against them last week against Montreal for the lookahead reason and they escaped with a five-point win in what was a pretty ugly victory. Saskatchewan has played a very easy schedule thus far with five of its seven games coming against the much weaker Eastern Conference but the Lions haven't exactly been tested that much either. Half of their games have come against the Eastern Conference and while they have a couple quality wins in the West, losses against Montreal and Winnipeg do not look that good. They are just 2-2 at home but the fact they have covered three straight games gives us a great go against spot. We play against any team with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last also seasons. Additionally, we have a revenge situation on our side as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) since 1996 including going 24-9 ATS (72.7 percent) the last five years. In a game that can go either way, we will grab the points and gladly accept anything above the key number of +3. 10* (297) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-23-14 | Toronto Argonauts +7.5 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Edmonton continues to surprise this year s it is now 6-1 following its win at Ottawa over the weekend to improve to a perfect 4-0 on the road. The Eskimos dominated the stats in the game against the RedBlacks but barely walked away with the victory as it was definitely a tough game to get up for. We are playing against them again this week not only because of what has taken place in the past but what is upcoming. Edmonton's lone loss this season came against Calgary at home and following this game, it has back-to-back games against the Stampeders in a span of six days so it is very likely that a lookahead could get in the way here. The value is definitely on the other side as the Eskimos are now favored by the most they have been favored by all season. Toronto played two games last week with the first game on Tuesday resulting in a win over Winnipeg but it gave it back on Sunday in a loss against British Columbia. It was the first time since opening week that the Argonauts were outgained so despite being 3-5, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 47.4 ypg. While this is the most that Edmonton has been favored by this season, it is also the most that Toronto has been an underdog by this year and anything over a touchdown is considered huge at this point. The Argonauts fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons with 19 of those games being won outright. 10* (293) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-16-14 | Montreal Alouettes +14 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 11-16 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
Montreal is pegged as the worst team in the CFL right now and there is certainly a legitimate claim to that. The Alouettes have lost four straight games, the last three coming by double digits, and they have dropped all three of those games against the number as well. Playing a struggling team like this may not seen prudent but this is where we get the best value and in the CFL, going contrarian has paid off for years. Things cannot get much worse in Montreal and probably the best news is that it has benched Troy Smith at quarterback and will start Alex Brink and a change like that can give a boost to an offense. Also, the Alouettes coaching carousel has finally stopped. Ryan Dinwiddie is now officially the offensive coordinator, Jeff Garcia is now the quarterbacks coach and Turk Schonert replaces Erik Campbell as receivers coach. Saskatchewan has won three straight games and has also covered those games so it is on a solid streak. But this is the best time to go against that especially with a team like the Roughriders that has shown this season they are capable of playing flat. Getting up for Montreal is not going to happen especially with a revenge game against British Columbia next week. Montreal falls into a contrarian situation that was also in play with Ottawa. Play on underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. While the outright upset is never out of the question, getting this many points is a must play in this spot. 10* (127) Montreal Alouettes |
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08-15-14 | Edmonton Eskimos v. Ottawa Redblacks +7 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 81 h 5 m | Show | |
Edmonton is definitely the biggest surprise in the CFL this season as it has gotten off to a 5-1 start after winning only four games all of last season. The Eskimos are coming off a win at Montreal on Friday as they jumped out to a 33-8 lead before holding off a late Alouettes charge to win by 10 points. That moved them to 3-0 on the road and as mentioned with Winnipeg, it provides value to the home team. This is the second of back-to-back road games for Edmonton, both of which are on the east coast, and this is the first time this season where it has to play consecutive games on the highway. Ottawa is on the opposite side of things as it is 1-5 which doesn't come as much of surprise seeing that it is an expansion team. The RedBlacks have lost three straight games since their inaugural win which happened to come at home. The only other home game they have played was against Saskatchewan so four of their first six games have been on the road meaning the schedule has not been easy. This is a revenge game for Ottawa as it lost in Edmonton by 16 points despite leading 7-2 at halftime. Edmonton is 4-18 in its last 22 road games after gaining 8.6 or more yppl in its previous game and Ottawa falls into a spectacular contrarian situation. Play on underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (124) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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08-12-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers v. Toronto Argonauts -3 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
It is a very short turnaround for Winnipeg as it will play its third game in 13 days on Tuesday night, which means it will have practiced only once this week. The Blue Bombers are coming off a loss at home against Saskatchewan in their last game on Thursday. This is the second game in four days for Winnipeg and they have lost five in a row under such circumstances and coincidentally, three of those have come against Toronto. Since 2000, the Blue Bombers are 3-9 when the second game is played on the road. Winnipeg is 3-0 on the road, one of three teams in the Western Division that is undefeated on the road and that is adding value to the home side. Toronto meanwhile is coming off a bye week as it has not played since August 1st when it hammered Montreal, snapping a three-game losing skid. The Argonauts are in a weird scheduling quirk as they are actually playing two games this week with the second game coming at home next Sunday against British Columbia. Dealing with that is not an issue in this first game however and they will be looking to build on the latest win. Toronto will be out for revenge as well as it got smashed at Winnipeg in its season opener 45-21. even though they are just 2-3 since then, the Argonauts have won the yardage battle in each of those five games. Toronto falls into a great situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (122) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-08-14 | Edmonton Eskimos v. Montreal Alouettes +6 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
We played against Montreal last week as it was a slight home favorite over Toronto and the Alouettes were blown out for a second straight game. They have been outscored 72-10 over those two games but we will be backing them this week as they fall into many similar situations that favored their opponent last week and the recent skid has increased their value tremendously. Coming in, we knew it was going to be a tough transitional season for Montreal as it had to start over with a new quarterback for the first time in years and the struggles have been validated. The Alouettes are just 1-2 at home but they have won the yardage battle twice and one of those losses came by just a single points against Winnipeg as turnovers and penalties did them in. Edmonton opened the season with a perfect 4-0 record but lost to Calgary in its most recent game prior to its bye so while the extra rest may be a good thing, this team has been playing well over its head in my opinion and thus, we are catching a good number because of it. The Eskimos are a perfect 2-0 straight up and ATS on the road and even going back to last season, they have been great in covering seven of their last eight games but was favored only once over that stretch. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points when playing with six or less days rest going up against an opponent coming off a bye week. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. also, we play on underdogs or pickems after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last five seasons including a sensational 22-4 ATS the last three seasons. We have seen this number go up since its opening and so waiting on it has already paid off. 10* (124) Montreal Alouettes |
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08-01-14 | B.C. Lions +5.5 v. Calgary Stampeders | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 29 m | Show |
There are a handful of teams in the CFL that have gotten off to disappointing starts and British Columbia is one of those. The Lions fell to 2-3 on the season after losing at home against Winnipeg this past weekend but this team is still better than its record indicates. Against the Blue Bombers, Kevin Glenn threw two picks in enemy territory while the offensive line took too many penalties and allowed six sacks on Glenn. British Columbia is outgaining opponents by 67.8 ypg and it is ranked 2nd in the league in both total offense and total defense which is a sure taker sign when getting a lot of points. We played on Calgary last week as it took care of the only other remaining undefeated team in Edmonton and we will be going against the Stampeders for much of the same reasoning as with any undefeated team comes overvalue. Calgary has been outgained in two of its last three games and while those were on the road, the only home teams it has played has been from the Eastern Conference. The Stampeders will again be without the services of running back Jon Cornish as the CFL's reigning most outstanding player is still out with a concussion. This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Lions as it cannot afford to fall further down in the standings. British Columbia s 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games off an upset loss as a home favorite and falls into a superior situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, in the first half of the season. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (425) British Columbia Lions |
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08-01-14 | Toronto Argonauts +3 v. Montreal Alouettes | Top | 31-5 | Win | 100 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
Both Toronto and Montreal got pounded in their last game and they come in with just one win each. The Argonauts lost at Saskatchewan last week by 28 points to fall to 1-4 on the season. That was a difficult spot as it was an early season revenge game for the Roughriders and even with that, Toronto outgained them by 43 yards but it was done in by four turnovers. Toronto has lost three straight games but it has won the yardage battle in all three of those contests which suggests that this is a team we can buy low. This is the third straight road game for Toronto which is never ideal but it will certainly be focused. Montreal is coming off its bye week after losing at British Columbia by 36 points the previous week. At 1-3, the Alouettes are currently in a tie for first place in the Eastern Conference which shows the overall weakness of it. To its credit, Montreal has played much better at home than on the road but until it can find some stability at quarterback, this team is not going far. Toronto has been in the same boat at the pivot but Ricky Ray is a proven veteran and future hall of famer so he will break out of his slump and this is the perfect opponent to do it against. The Argonauts fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs or pickems after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. The road team won all four meetings last season and Toronto is 5-1 ATS the last six meetings here so I expect this year to open the same way. 10* (423) Toronto Argonauts |
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07-31-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -3 | Top | 27-26 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Hamilton came through for us last week as it picked up its first win of the season, defeating Ottawa by 10 points in its first home game of the season. I like the Tiger Cats to carry that over into this week as they once again find themselves in a very solid spot and are again undervalued. Despite being just 1-3, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 13.6 ypg which is pretty small but the fact they are on the plus side is telling us something. And that something is that the loses have been due to other factors including turnovers and penalties. Winnipeg meanwhile has been just the opposite. The Blue Bombers are coming off their fourth win of the season as they upset British Columbia but it was also their third straight game of getting outyarded. On the season, Winnipeg has been outgained by an average of 21.8 ypg and as is the case with Hamilton, the wins have been due to other factors and it is something that cannot keep going at this rate. Winnipeg has had one extra day of rest but that is negated by the travel factor as it is coming across country while the Tiger Cats remain at home. The Blue Bombers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win while the Tiger Cats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (422) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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07-26-14 | Ottawa Redblacks v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4.5 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
We won with Ottawa last week as it defeated Toronto at home for the first win for the new RedBlacks franchise. They were arguably pretty fortunate for the victory as they won by just one points and were outgained by 58 total yards but a win is a win and that sets up a great play against opportunity here. The RedBlacks were at a huge advantage last week as they were playing their first ever home game and it was a pretty incredible scene but now they hit the road where there are still plenty of issues to fix. They haven't scored a touchdown in more than six quarters and against the Argonauts, four of their six field goals came from less than 30 yards, including the game-winner with 28 seconds remaining. Hamilton meanwhile is off to a 0-3 start but it has played good enough to win the last two weeks as it has covered both games. The Tiger Cats got a bad scheduling break to start the season as not only were their first three games on the road, they all came against Western Conference opponents. They are now in last place in the Eastern Conference but a win here can change everything. Hamilton could move into first place with a win believe it or not as Ottawa currently hold that spot down despite being 1-2. the victory would make it three teams sitting at 1-3 and with 1-3 Toronto at Saskatchewan in a revenge game, the Argonauts could very well be 1-4 after the weekend. And if any more motivation is necessary, the Tiger Cats face their former quarterback in Henry Burris who bolted after spending two years in Hamilton. Going back, the Tiger Cats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss including 2-0 ATS this season and they grab their first victory of 2014. 10* (126) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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07-24-14 | Calgary Stampeders +1 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 26-22 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show |
Edmonton is the biggest surprise of the season thus far in the CFL as it is off to a 4-0 start, one of two remaining undefeated teams. It kept the record intact with a big win at Winnipeg last week but I expect the run to end this week. After picking up a big upset win at British Columbia in Week One, the Eskimos have not played the best of competition the last three weeks but that changes here. Defeating Ottawa and Hamilton at home were far from upsets and the Blue Bombers should come to reality as well. Calgary is the only other undefeated team in the league sitting at 3-0 and it is coming off a closer than expected win over Hamilton last week as it won at home by just a 10-7 score. That narrow win should have the Stampeders very focused this week and facing the only other undefeated team will have them more than ready as well. Calgary has owned this series with seven straight wins and while this is the best Edmonton team it has seen over that stretch, I think the talent gap is still pretty big. This is the first meeting in the Battle of Alberta which is a huge rivalry so the Eskimos will be sky high as well in trying to end the losing skid in this series but they will not have enough to matchup. The defense of the Stampeders will prove that as they have allowed just one touchdown over the first three games and this will be the toughest test quarterback Mike Reilly has seen so far. The Stampeders fall into a great situation as we play against teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 51-19 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (121) Calgary Stampeders |
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07-19-14 | Montreal Alouettes v. B.C. Lions -6.5 | Top | 5-41 | Win | 100 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
We won with British Columbia last week and we will be backing the Lions again even as they go from a big underdog to a big favorite. After a 0-2 start, we expected the Lions to come back and avoid the 0-3 start and they did it without much trouble as they jumped ahead only to lose the lead but then pulled away at the end. That victory should give British Columbia come much needed momentum and there will be no lack of motivation here. The Lions lost their first game of the season at home against Edmonton and you have to go all the way back to early 2011 to find the last time they lost two straight home games. Since then, they are 23-4 over their last 27 games at home including the first loss to the Eskimos this year. Additionally, the Lions will be out for revenge as they went to Montreal and were defeated by 15 points while getting outgained by 122 total yards. Montreal is also off to a 1-2 start this season as it opened with a loss, bounced back with a win and then lost again last week. I don't see the bounce back this week though as the Alouettes only road game came in that opener at Calgary and they were crushed by 21 points and outgained by 215 total yards. Quarterback Troy Smith put together his best game of the season but I don't see it continuing here while on the other side, I fully expect Kevin Glenn to have his breakout game this week. Montreal is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games against defenses allowing 6.9 or less passing ypa and it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 meetings in British Columbia. 10* (428) British Columbia Lions |
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07-18-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Ottawa Redblacks +2 | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
After starting the season with a bye on opening week, Ottawa has played its first two games of the season on the road and bow the RedBlacks are prepared to make their historical debut back to Ottawa. Losses in the first two games against Winnipeg and Edmonton were frustrating by the fact that Ottawa actually led both games at halftime but could not put together a full game either time. Playing on their home field for the first time since 2005, this RedBlacks team should be full of confidence knowing they can compete. Toronto lost its season opener at Winnipeg but bounced back nicely against Saskatchewan in Week Two only to give it back last week against Calgary, losing by 19 points. The Argonauts actually outgained the Stampeders by 78 total yards but they were unable to find any success in the redzone as they had to settle for five field goals. Things have not been great offensively for Ottawa either. Since scoring three touchdowns in their very first quarter of play, when nobody had any idea of their schemes and tendencies, the RedBlacks have crossed the goal line just once in their last seven quarters. I expect the energy of the home crowd to be a huge edge on Friday. Making matters worse for Toronto, it is unlikely wide receiver Jason Barnes returns this week from a knee injury while their top receiver Chad Owens was hurt against Calgary and is in a walking book suggesting he will be missing time as well. The RedBlacks will have the big home field edge here and I expect that to turn into the first victory for the CFL's new franchise. 10* (424) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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07-12-14 | B.C. Lions +6 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
British Columbia was upset at home by Edmonton in its season opener by a touchdown and it was unable to bounce back as the Lions were clobbered at Montreal last week by 15 points. The Lions came into the season as one of the top teams to contend for the Grey Cup and while we are just two games in, this has turned into a big game for them as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak which happened once last season. It came late in the regular season and killed the momentum of a great start and ultimately left them in third place in the Western Conference where they then had to go on the road in the playoffs only to lose to Saskatchewan. This isn't a do-or-die situation by any stretch but British Columbia can not let this get out of control too much. We played against the Roughriders last week in Toronto and cashed and while they too will be in bounceback mode, they are getting too much credit with this line and they could not be facing an opponent at the worst time. Saskatchewan dispatched of Hamilton without much of a problem in its season opener but it takes a big step up in class here despite what the record is saying. This is a revenge game for the Lions following last season's first round playoff loss and it is actually a triple revenge spot after losing the final two regular season games on top of that. British Columbia was getting four points in the two games played here so we are getting a much bigger number thanks to the 0-2 start and we will gladly take it. The Roughriders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (127) British Columbia Lions |
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