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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
7* Panthers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day *FEAST* on Dallas +1.5 |
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11-24-15 | Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 | Top | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
7* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +23.5 |
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11-22-15 | Redskins +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 16-44 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +7.5 |
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11-21-15 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh -2 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 40 h 31 m | Show |
7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -2 |
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11-20-15 | Cincinnati v. South Florida +2 | Top | 27-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
7* Cincinnati/USF NCAAF Friday Night Lights on South Florida +2 |
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11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville -3 |
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11-17-15 | Toledo +8 v. Bowling Green | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
7* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo +8 |
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11-16-15 | Texans +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
7* Texans/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +11 |
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11-15-15 | Jaguars +5.5 v. Ravens | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
7* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 |
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11-14-15 | Temple v. South Florida +3 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3 |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* Bills/Jets NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -1.5 |
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11-10-15 | Toledo v. Central Michigan +4.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
7* Toledo/CMU NCAAF Tuesday *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +4.5 |
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11-08-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
7* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -2.5 |
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11-07-15 | LSU v. Alabama -7 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
7* LSU/Alabama NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -7 |
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11-06-15 | BYU v. San Jose State +13 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
7* BYU/San Jose State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +13 |
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11-05-15 | Browns +11.5 v. Bengals | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
7* Browns/Bengals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5 |
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11-04-15 | Ohio +20 v. Bowling Green | Top | 24-62 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
7* Ohio/BG MAC Game of the Week on Ohio +20 |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +7.5 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
7* Northern Illinois/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7.5 |
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11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 41 h 53 m | Show |
7* Colts/Panthers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis Colts +7 |
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11-01-15 | Chargers v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5 |
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10-31-15 | Illinois v. Penn State -4.5 | Top | 0-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -4.5 |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins +9 v. Patriots | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
7* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9 |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +9 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 76 h 28 m | Show |
7* Ravens/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +9 |
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10-25-15 | NY Jets +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 59 m | Show |
7* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets +8 |
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10-24-15 | Wyoming +35 v. Boise State | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
7* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming +35 |
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10-23-15 | Memphis v. Tulsa +10.5 | Top | 66-42 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 31 m | Show |
7* Memphis/Tulsa ESPN Friday Night Lights on Tulsa +10.5 |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -4 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
7* Giants/Eagles MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -4 |
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10-18-15 | San Diego Chargers +11 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +11 |
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10-17-15 | Louisville +7 v. Florida State | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
7* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +7 |
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10-16-15 | Cincinnati +7 v. BYU | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
7* Cincinnati/BYU Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati +7 |
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10-15-15 | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
7* Falcons/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5 |
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10-13-15 | Arkansas State -3.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 49-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
7* Arkansas State/South Alabama Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas State -3.5 |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Chargers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +4 |
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10-11-15 | Washington Redskins +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7.5 |
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10-10-15 | Northwestern +10 v. Michigan | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +10 |
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10-09-15 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
7* NC State/VA Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2 |
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10-08-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans -3.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
7* Colts/Texans TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -3.5 |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
7* Lions/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -9.5 |
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10-04-15 | St Louis Rams +7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Month on St. Louis Rams +7.5 |
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10-03-15 | Boston College +7 v. Duke | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +7 |
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10-02-15 | Connecticut +14.5 v. BYU | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
7* UConn/BYU ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Connecticut +14.5 |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
 7* Ravens/Steelers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3 |
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09-27-15 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 7-47 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
7* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +6.5 |
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09-26-15 | Missouri v. Kentucky -2.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show |
7* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -2.5 |
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09-25-15 | Boise State v. Virginia +3 | Top | 56-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
7* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia +3 |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -3.5 | Top | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
7* Redskins/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -3.5 |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
7* Jets/Colts MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7 |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 |
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09-19-15 | Ole Miss +7 v. Alabama | Top | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
7* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +7 |
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09-18-15 | Florida State -7 v. Boston College | Top | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 42 h 5 m | Show |
7* FSU/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida State -7 |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings -2 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 3-20 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
7* Vikings/49ers Monday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -2 |
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09-13-15 | Miami Dolphins -3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
7* NFL Sunday *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins -3 |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
7* Oregon/MSU NCAAF Top 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -3.5 |
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09-11-15 | Utah State v. Utah -12 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
7* Utah State/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -12 |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Patriots Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +7 |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -106 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
7* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday *REMATCH* on Virginia Tech +14 |
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09-05-15 | Penn State -7 v. Temple | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
7* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -7 |
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09-03-15 | TCU -16.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -16.5 |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots -1 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 269 h 12 m | Show |
7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots +2 (I've been informed that the line I locked in at "+2" is not correlating to the number the line feed is showing "-1" - it must be some minor programming glitch. I want you to know I still like the Pats at -1 and even at -3 for that matter.) The Key: Seattle was the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL statistically during the regular season, but it was far from dominant at home against the Packers in the NFC Championship, and it's up against an entirely different animal here. Led by Tom Brady, New England is hitting on all cylinders offensively. After gashing Baltimore for 422 yards and 35 points, it put up 397 yards and 45 points against the Colts. The numbers are worth noting because the Patriots are an eye-opening 72-33-2 ATS in their last 107 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New England has risen to the occasion time and time again with Bill Belichick on the sideline and Brady under center, even against the stiffest defenses. The Pats are 30-15 ATS versus teams that give up 17.0 ppg or less under Belichick. They are 16-5 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 285.0 ypg or less under Belichick. They are 18-9 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage above 75% under Belichick. Besides the Brady/Belichick factor, the New England run defense is a big reason for this play. The Pats ranked No. 9 in the NFL against the run this season and have held foes to 85.1 rushing yards per game over their last 10 games. Seattle's run game needs to be effective for it to be at its best offensively, and I don't see it happening against New England's stingy run defense. When the rushing yards don't come easy, Russell Wilson will have to carry the load. He didn't perform well at all in the NFC Championship when he had the help of a running game, and I don't see him getting nearly as much help here. Brady and Belichick have lost their last two Super Bowl appearances, and that is a huge motivating factor. It's tough to repeat. It hasn't happened in a decade when the Patriots did it, and I believe they'll be the team to deny Seattle from getting it done. Take New England. |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 100 h 23 m | Show |
7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Packers +7.5 The Key: We are getting a great number here as books are expecting plenty of public money on the Seahawks with all the media attention Aaron Rodgers' calf injury is getting. There are several other factors contributing to this number like Seattle's 36-16 win over the Packers in the season opener and its 7-0 SU and ATS run, which included a double-digit win at home over Carolina last week. Green Bay's 4-4 road record has also played a part. But with a Super Bowl trip on the line, I'm not hesitating to get grab the points with Green Bay. While Rodgers may not be 100%, he was 24 of 35 for 316 yards and 3 TDs with no picks against the Cowboys. He has shown the ability to put the team on his back and win football games, even while less than 100%, and I trust him more than Russell Wilson in this big spot. Wilson is a clutch player, but he is mostly a game manager who depends on Seattle's strong running game to take the pressure off him. He got a huge lift from the running game in the first meeting, but the Packers have transformed their defense since then and have given up an average of only 92.9 rushing yards per game over their last nine games and have gone 8-1 during this stretch. Green Bay couldn't run the football worth a lick early in the season when they first faced Seattle, but it has averaged 134.2 rushing yards over its last 13 games. The Seahawks will have to respect the run this time around, and that will open up the field for Rodgers. Seattle is a terrific defensive team, but the Packers are on a 14-6 ATS run versus teams that give up just 12.9 to 18.9 ppg with Rodgers under center. The Packers are also on a 38-14 ATS run versus teams with passing defenses that allow 4.9-6.9 passing yards per attempt with Rodgers at the controls. We also can't ignore what Rodgers has done away from home in his career in the playoffs. He's 4-2 in road/neutral field games in the playoffs with one of the losses coming in OT. He's won six of his last nine postseason games overall and has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in eight of 10 career postseason games. Another factor that can't be ignored is Seattle's propensity for penalties. The Seahawks give up an average of 63.0 ypg on penalties, which is worth noting because the Packers are 22-6 ATS under McCarthy versus teams that give up an average of 60.0 penalty yards per game or more. Take the points. |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State v. Oregon -6 | Top | 42-20 | Loss | -101 | 79 h 48 m | Show |
7* National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -6 The Key: Oregon is a runaway freight train that I'm not about to step in front of here. The Ducks are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine games with these wins coming by an average of 26.3 points. The smallest margin of victory during this span was still 12 points. The Ducks have several impressive trends going under coach Helfrich. They are 10-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more, 7-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more, 6-0 ATS after two straight wins of 28 points or more and 6-0 ATS in games played away from home following four or more consecutive wins. It is also worth noting that the Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Ohio State has pulled off back-to-back improbable victories in impressive fashion since losing J.T. Barrett, but they are up against a different animal here. Ohio State actually trailed Alabama 21-6 and another slow start against the Ducks will likely mean its doom. Oregon never takes its foot off the gas pedal, and that will put a lot of pressure on the Ohio State defense as well as an inexperience signal caller (Cardale Jones). Ohio State has been a great story with all that it's been able to overcome at the QB position, but I think it finally runs out of magic against Marcus Mariota and the Ducks. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 7 m | Show |
7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Broncos -7 The Key: Indianapolis played the Broncos to a seven-point game in Denver clear back in Week 1, but the final score was misleading as the Broncos led 31-10 in the fourth quarter and then called off the dogs. While some may look to play the revenge angle, history says that's not a good move. In fact, you want to fade teams seeking revenge for a loss if they are off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 27-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Indy is just 5-10 ATS as a road underdog with Luck under center. In addition, the Colts are 0-6 ATS all-time with Luck at the controls in road games played in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 60% to 75%. These six defeats have come by an average score of 41.7 to 16.8. Lay the points. |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show |
7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +7 The Key: I like the Ravens catching a TD + PAT given their postseason track record and how competitive they've been with the Patriots. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games while the Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. It is also worth noting that the Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games on the road while the Patriots are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than seven points in seven of its last eight matchups with New England and hasn't lost by more than six points in its last five visits to New England. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points. |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals +4 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 46 m | Show |
7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Bengals +4 The Key: I think Cincinnati will want this game just a little bit more. It was embarrassed 27-0 in Indy Oct. 19 so it will be highly motivated. Plus, this Bengals team will draw additional motivated from three consecutive early exits from the postseason. The aforementioned loss to the Colts was a turning point in Cincy's season as it responded by going 7-3 the rest of the way, including 4-1 on the road. The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Marvin Lewis in road games when seeking revenge for a loss to a team that held them to fewer than nine points. Take the points. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4 The Key: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Ravens considering how tight this series has been. While this season's two prior meetings resulted in blowout victories for the home team, this has not been the norm. Entering the season, these two had played each other to within three points or fewer in nine of 11 battles, including five straight. Including this season, Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of the last eight meetings. This has been a good time of year to back the Ravens as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in the playoffs, a 4-0 ATS run in road playoff games and a 4-0 ATS run in wild card contests. In addition, you want to take teams like Baltimore after a game in which they didn't commit a turnover if they are up against an opponent that committed three or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 73-52 ATS record the last five seasons. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better and has won by an average score of 24.9 to 19.0 in this spot. Take the points. |
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01-02-15 | Iowa +4 v. Tennessee | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 39 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +4 The Key: Iowa underachieved this season, and the coaching staff is taking plenty of heat from the fan base as a result. If Iowa loses to Tennessee, head coach Kirk Ferentz will enter next season on the hot seat. I expect him to have his team fully prepared and motivated to make sure that doesn't happen. Ferentz typically does a good job in bowl prep and is an impressive 4-2 in bowls versus current SEC teams. Iowa blew a big lead and lost to Nebraska in OT in its regular-season finale, but it has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when playing away from home following a loss and have won these games by an average of 10.2 points. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus SEC foes. Take the points. |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin +7 v. Auburn | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
7* New Year's Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin +7 The Key: Wisconsin will be lacking no motivation after being brutally embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers will draw added motivation from head coach Gary Anderson leaving for Oregon State. They will be out to show Anderson he made the wrong move. Auburn won't be that excited about this game after playing for a national title last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games on grass. Wisconsin wasn't able to run the football on Ohio State as it was held to just 71 yards on the ground, but Auburn isn't as physical as Ohio State up front. Besides, the Badgers take pride in their running attack and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 49-34 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
7* Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Mississippi State -6.5 The Key: Mississippi State has done an excellent job stuffing the run this season. It ended the regular season ranked 25th in the nation against the run with 126.5 yards per game allowed. With a month to prepare for Georgia Tech's run-heavy attack, the Bulldogs should take care of business. They are 11-3 ATS versus excellent running teams that average 5.25 yards per carry or more under coach Mullen. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five versus SEC opponents. Lay the points. |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
7* Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Notre Dame +7.5 The Key: Notre Dame is being undervalued because of a 0-4 finish that ended with a 49-14 loss at USC. I'll gladly take the points as the Fighting Irish won or lost by four points or less in all but two games this season. This is too many points for LSU to be laying considering how much it has struggled offensively this season. The Tigers rank 83rd in the country in total offense and have no passing game. The Fighting Irish will make LSU beat them through the air, and I don't see it happening. While LSU is stout defensively, Notre Dame has an offense capable of giving the Tigers problems. The Irish boast the 34th-best offense in the nation overall and the 16th-best passing attack. In addition, LSU is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home that following a win. It has lost these contests by an average score of 24.5 to 19.6. Take the points. |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
7* Liberty Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M +2.5 The Key: West Virginia has struggled against strong passing teams like Texas A&M. In fact, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home versus teams that average 275.0 yards per game through the air or more. They have lost these contests by an average score of 47.7 to 23.5. It is also worth noting that West Virginia hasn't performed well when getting extra time off in recent seasons. It is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons when getting more than a typical week of preparation time. In addition, the Mountaineers are on a 0-8 ATS slide when laying points on a neutral field and have lost these games by an average score of 30.4 to 24.5. Sumlin does an excellent job preparing his kids and has won his first two bowls at A&M. Take the Aggies. |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) -3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
7* Independence Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3.5 The Key: The South Carolina defense took a big step back this season, and it's this side of the football that will cost them against the Hurricanes. The Gamecocks rank 93rd nationally in both total and scoring defense and have been especially bad against the run, ranking 108th with 214.4 yards per game allowed. That doesn't bode well for them as they get set to face Duke Johnson, who has 1,520 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Miami has been exceptional defensively, ranking 14th in the country in total defense. It has been especially strong against the pass, ranking 10th in the nation with 184.1 yards per game allowed. The Hurricanes should have success slowing down a South Carolina offense that likes to throw the football. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Lay the points. |
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12-21-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +6 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 120 h 22 m | Show |
7* NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Raiders +6 The Key: I expect a major letdown from Buffalo as it makes the long cross-country trip following a huge win over the Packers. It's been a struggle for the Bills on the West Coast, going 0-3 ATS in their last three visits to the Raiders. It's been a struggle all-around for Buffalo in this series as it is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings. You want to fade favorites that have a winning record when they are off an upset win at home as doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.0 points but have lost outright by an average of 2.0 points. Take the points. |
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12-20-14 | Western Michigan v. Air Force | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
7* Potato Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -110 The Key: Western Michigan is the more complete team on both sides of the football. The Broncos match up very well with Air Force's one-dimensional offense. They ranked a respectable 37th nationally against the run this season, and having had a month to prepare, I like their chances or slowing down Air Force's ground game. Western Mich is balanced and explosive offensively, and that doesn't bode well for the Falcons, who are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons when playing away from home versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. They have lost these six games by an average score of 40.0 to 16.3. Air Force's best shot is too force turnovers, which is something it hasn't done very well this season. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS the last three seasons away from home after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none. The Broncos had cover the spread in 10 straight games before losing to Northern Illinois Nov. 28. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Western Mich. |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Chiefs -10 The Key: What happened after Oakland upset Kansas City Nov. 20? It was destroyed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week. After last Sunday's upset win over San Francisco, I expect another collapse from the Raiders. Oakland is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following an upset win and has lost these six by an average of 23.8 points. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and are up against an opponent off a road loss as doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Kansas City will be out for revenge here. You want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are seeking revenge and are off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so has produced an 81-38 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +2.5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 57 m | Show |
7* NFC Non-division Game of the Year on Redskins +2.5 The Key: After a strong showing in San Francisco, the Redskins were smacked in Indianapolis last week. That result bodes well for us here considering December home underdogs or pickems off a road loss of 14 points or more are 78-42 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are just 2-4 on the road where they are averaging only 17.5 points and allowing 25.5 points. Pass defense has been the weakness of the St. Louis defense, and it will be tested by a Washington passing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL with 260.5 yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. This is significant because the Rams are on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games versus teams that average 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by an average of 22.0 points. St. Louis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. It has benefited from turnovers. However, the Redskins have a plus-three turnover margin in the games McCoy has played. Take Washington. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | Top | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +1.5 The Key: Arizona isn't the same team with Drew Stanton under center. He struggled in Seattle last week, and I expect those struggles to continue in Atlanta. The Falcons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL statistically but have shown improvement in recent weeks and have been able to come up with a lot of turnovers. They've held their last four foes to an average of 20.5 points and have forced eight turnovers the last three weeks. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 6.0 yards per play or more in two consecutive games. They have won by an average score of 28.0 to 21.4 in this spot. Atlanta is at home, where the combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan has been very good over the years, and it still has a great chance to win the NFC South. Take Atlanta. |
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11-29-14 | Cincinnati v. Temple +7 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Temple +7 The Key: I love Temple in this spot. The Owls are at home on Senior Day needing a win to become bowl eligible and seeking revenge for last season's 18-point loss at Cincinnati. Needless to say, they will be extremely motivated. Temple has been tough at home where it defeated East Carolina by double digits and played Memphis to a three-point game. Under coach Rhule, Temple is 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. It is also 6-0 ATS under Rhule versus teams that average 425.0 ypg or more. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points. |
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11-28-14 | Navy v. South Alabama +10 | Top | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Black Friday *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +10 The Key: This line is inflated due to South Alabama's 0-6 ATS slide. The Jaguars have won their last three home games, and they'll be lacking no motivation on senior day. They were smashed 42-14 at Navy last season, and that embarrassing loss will be the driving force behind a strong effort on Senior Day. Navy hasn't played a true road games since Oct. 4 so it will be out of its comfort zone. You want to fade road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more when they are up against a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg if the fade team allowed 6.25 yards per play or more in its last game. Doing so has produced a 27-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 11.1 points on average but have won by only 4.3 points on average. Take the points. |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints -2.5 The Key: New Orleans has been one of the best home teams in the NFL with Sean Payton as head man and Drew Brees under center. So, the fact it has lost two straight in the Superdome isn't sitting well. I expect the Saints to respond. They haven't lost three straight home games since 2005. They are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games. I like Brees and company to be able to take advantage of a Baltimore pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league with 251.2 yards allowed per game. The Ravens have allowed opponents to complete 64.2 percent of their passes, and that number jumps to 66.1 percent on the road - not good. This is significant because the Saints are 8-1 ATS under Payton in home games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0 percent or higher. The Saints have won these games by an average score of 37.7 to 19.0. Lay the points. |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5 The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points. |
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11-22-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia +6 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 48 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +6 The Key: This is a major letdown spot for Miami, which put everything into last week's showdown against Florida State only to come up short after blowing a 16-0 lead. I don't see the Hurricanes being able to recover from that blow on the road where they are 1-3. Virginia is better than its 4-6 record leads you to believe, and it has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. Plus, the Cavaliers need to win their last two to become bowl eligible, and they will be driven by that. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a cover, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points. |
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11-22-14 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -10 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 18 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -10 The Key: Odds makers appear to be begging for money on Minnesota, which is tied with Nebraska for second place in the Big Ten West. After destroying Iowa 51-14, the Golden Gophers held their own against Ohio State last Saturday. Yet, they're catching double digits? Something smells fishy. It's Senior Day in Lincoln, and the Huskers will be lacking no motivation. They were completely embarrassed in Madison, WI last week, and they were upset at Minnesota last season. They'll be out to save face and exact revenge here. Nebraska is 6-0 at home this season where it has won by an average of 22.5 points. The Cornhuskers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Lay the points. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
7* AFC West Game of the Month on Raiders +7.5 The Key: This is a sandwich game for Kansas City, which is off a big win over Seattle and has Denver on deck. You want to fade favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record as doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs have played five road games this season and won by more than 7.5 points in just one of them. The Raiders haven't been as bad as their 0-10 record looks. They've played New England, San Diego and Seattle tough and have five losses of seven points or less. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season if they check in with seven or more consecutive losses as doing so has produced a 94-46 ATS mark since 1983. Lastly, the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points. |
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11-16-14 | Denver Broncos v. St. Louis Rams +10.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Month on Rams +10.5 The Key: Back home after three straight on the road, St. Louis will respond following a disappointing effort against the Cardinals. The Rams are a much better team than they showed last week. We've seen what they are capable of in games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. They defeated the two later teams and played the two former teams to three and six-point games. The Rams are 10-1 ATS after a loss of 14 points or more under coach Jeff Fisher and have won by an average score of 22.1 to 18.6 in this spot. They are also 8-1 ATS under Fisher in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Shaun Hill is expected to get the start, and I expect him to make the most of his opportunity. His teams are 14-6-2 ATS the last 22 times he's lined up under center. Fading road favorites that outgain opponents by 70.0 passing yards per game or more and allowed 5.5 or less yards per pass last game has produced a 69-33 ATS mark since 1983, including a 17-5 ATS record the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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11-15-14 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +9.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon State +9.5 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Cal and Washington State and further fueled by last season's loss at Arizona State, the Beavers will give the Sun Devils a game. Since 1992, Oregon State is an impressive 30-14 ATS when it checks in off two straight losses to conference opponents. It's 22-9 ATS during this span off a loss of seven points or less in conference play. It is also on a 9-2 ATS run when checking in off an upset loss at home to conference foe. The defensive side of the football has really let the Beavers down the past two weeks. However, they are 6-0 ATS all-time after allowing 450 yards or more in two consecutive games under coach Riley and have won by an average score of 32.5 to 24.7 in this spot. The home team has had a huge advantage in this series as it has won 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Take the points. |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech +5.5 The Key: The Hokies are in the midst of a rare losing streak, but having had a bye week to regroup, I expect them to right the ship. As if their current three-game slide isn't enough motivation, they saw a nine-game win streak over Duke come to an end with last season's 13-10 loss to the Blue Devils. They'll be out for payback and to keeps their bowl hopes alive. The Hokies are 17-8 ATS following two of more consecutive losses under coach Beamer. They are also 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.0 points under his watch. Take the points. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6 The Key: The Steelers rolled last week at home, but they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points. They are also 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus teams that have a losing home record. Since Tomlin took over, the Steelers have been a poor investment against poor teams. In fact, they are 6-15 ATS under his watch versus teams that are outscored by 6.0 points per game or more. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that check in off seven consecutive losses or more as doing so has produced a 92-45 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. Also, home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games are 119-64 ATS since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the points. |
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11-08-14 | UTEP v. Western Kentucky -7 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Favorite of the Week on Western Kentucky -7 The Key: Western Kentucky's 3-5 record is deceiving. The Hilltoppers have played five of their first eight games on the road and have three single-possession losses on the season. The schedule now turns in their favor as they play their next three at home, and I expect them to take advantage. UTEP has been a bad investment as an underdog, going 3-11 ATS in the role going back to the start of last season. The Miners have been a good bet this season, covering the number in six of eight games and each of their last three. However, now's the time to fade away as they are 1-10 ATS since 1992 when checking in with covers in six or seven games during an eight-game span. The Miners rolled against So. Miss last week, but the score was a little deceiving as they were outgained 402-234. Performances like that have been telling as they are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that allow 440.0 ypg or more when they are matched up against a team that gives up 390.0 to 440.0 ypg. Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points. |
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11-08-14 | Texas-San Antonio +10 v. Rice | Top | 7-17 | Push | 0 | 47 h 44 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Underdog of the Week on Texas-San Antonio +10 The Key: UTSA's bye week couldn't have come at a better time. The Roadrunners lost 34-0 at home to UTEP as a 14-point favorite last time out. I expect the extra time off to do them some good and for them to regroup here. Consider that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite are 41-11 ATS in conference play since 1992. The Roadrunners have been a sweet play on the road where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. They are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points over the last 3 seasons. Rice has won five in a row by 14 points or more and odds makers are only asking it to lay 10 here? Perhaps they're thinking what I'm thinking. The Owls will be peeking ahead to next week's matchup at Marshall. Take the points. |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +3.5 The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Giants will be lacking no motivation. They will be well rested and well prepared following a bye week. They'll also be happy to be playing at home where they've won their last two by double digits. Indianapolis was shredded last week, giving up 522 yards through the air to Big Ben and the Steelers. With an extra week of preparation time on his side, I expect Eli Manning to shred the Indy secondary as well. The Colts are the top offensive team in the league statistically, but the Giants are 30-13 ATS versus teams that average 375.0 ypg or more under coach Coughlin. They are also 25-11 ATS under Coughlin versus teams that average 260 ypg or more through the air. You want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 73-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 53 m | Show |
7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on Jets +10 The Key: Historically, this is a fantastic situation to back the Jets. Consider that road underdogs or pickems are 26-6 ATS since 1983 when they check in off seven or more consecutive losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more consecutive wins. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 11.9 points on average but have lost by only 4.3 points on average. Everything Kansas City does offensively stems from its running game. The Jets rank fifth in the NFL against the run with only 85.4 yards allowed per game. Their ability to stop the run will keep the Kansas City offense out of rhythm. Take the points. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +14.5 The Key: I missed with Oklahoma State last week but will come right back with the Cowboys here as they are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in November. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21.0 points that allowed nine points or less last game when they are matched up against a team that's off two straight losses of 17 points or more. Doing so has produced a 29-7 ATS mark since 1992. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points. |
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11-01-14 | Rice v. Florida International +6 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
7* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida International +6 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and well-prepared following a bye week, FIU will give Rice all it wants and more. You want to fade teams like Rice with a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential when they are on the road after giving up 225 total yards or less in their previous game when they are matched up against a team that is being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 35-8 (81%) ATS mark since 1992. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Take the points. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +10.5 The Key: The Cowboys are being overvalued here. Washington is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. It ranks 7th in the NFL in both total offense and defense. Plus, this is a huge rivalry game that the Redskins always seem to get up for. They have won or lost by less than 10.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings, 13 of the last 15, 17 of the last 20 and 22 of the last 26 so there is a ton of value in them catching double digits. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS following five or six wins in a seven-game stretch under coach Garrett, losing by an average score of 30.5 to 21.8 in this spot. Dallas is also on a 0-4 ATS Monday Night Football slide. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings at Dallas. Take the points. |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
7* AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals +1 The Key: Cincinnati won the season's first meeting 23-16 in Baltimore clear back in Week 1. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play the revenge angle, but this is not the time or place to do that. In fact, you want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a loss if they check in off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bengals have lost two of their last three, but both losses came on the road. Cincy has been unstoppable at home where it is 11-0-1 in its last 12 regular season games. Take Cincinnati. |
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10-25-14 | Nevada v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Bailout on Hawaii +3 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Nevada as it makes the long trip to Hawaii following a huge upset win at BYU. Not only is this a bounce-back spot for the Warriors following a loss at San Diego State, but it is a revenge spot following three consecutive double-digit defeats to the Wolf Pack. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a loss while the Wolf Pack are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a win. The Warriors have been a terrific investment at home where they are on a 5-0 ATS run. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the points. |
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10-25-14 | Arizona State v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 14 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Washington +3.5 The Key: Expect a letdown from Arizona State following a big blowout win over Stanford. ASU has had its way with Washington in recent years, which means the Huskies will be lacking no motivation. It also means the Sun Devils will be susceptible - their tendency will be to look ahead to Utah. Washington is 3-1 at home, and the Sun Devils are a weak 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Huskies are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Take the points. |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 21 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State pk The Key: Motivated by last week's brutally embarrassing 42-9 loss at TCU, and further fueled by last season's 30-21 defeat at West Virginia, Oklahoma State will take care of business Saturday. The Cowboys are an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are 17-3 ATS at home since 1992 following a loss of 21 points or more. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 33.5 to 24.1 in this spot. The Mountaineers are in a letdown spot following a huge win over Baylor. You want to fade road teams in weeks 5-9 that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 20-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Cowboys. |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
7* NFL Thursday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +10 The Key: This line is an overreaction to recent results. The Chargers have failed to cover the spread the past two weeks while struggling to win at Oakland and losing at home to Kansas City. Denver, meanwhile, has rattled off three consecutive double-digit victories. The fact of the matter is the Chargers will be extremely motivated following Sunday's loss. They'll also be out for revenge for a loss in Denver in last season's playoffs. The Chargers have been very competitive in this series. They have won or lost by eight points or fewer in 15 of the last 17 meetings, including the last four. The Chargers are 11-4-2 ATS in those 17 meetings and 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. It is also worth noting that they are 11-3 ATS as an underdog under coach McCoy, 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus winning teams and 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. You want to fade favorites that have held their last two opponents to 5.5 yards per pass or less when they are matched up against a team that has given up 7.0 yards per pass or more to its last two opponents. This system has produced an 87-48 ATS record since 1983, including a perfect 9-0 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -130 | 101 h 20 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Year on Giants +7 The Key: Dallas has won five in a row and is now being extremely overvalued following last week's upset win in Seattle. The Giants were rolling before taking it on the chin in Philadelphia. That loss assures us they will be mighty hungry when they take the field Sunday. Having suffered a pair of narrow losses to the Cowboys last season adds fuel to their fire. This has been a highly competitive series. In fact, the Giants have won or lost by seven points or less in nine of the last 10 meetings in the series, including six straight. Dallas has been a downright terrible home favorite under Garrett and Romo. It has been favored at home just once thus far this season, laying 4.5 against the Texans, and failed to cover as it won by only three points in OT. The Cowboys are 10-23 ATS as a favorite under Garrett, including 6-16 ATS when laying points at home. The Boys are 11-21 ATS as a home favorite with Romo under center. Manning is 4-1 SU and ATS at Jerry World, and I expect the Giants to give Dallas all it wants and more here. Take the points. |
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