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Play - Chicago White Sox vs Buchholz.
Edges - White Sox: Carlos Rodon 5-1 last six overall home team starts; and 3-1 career team starts during May. Red Sox: Clay Buchholz 0-2 with 9.32 ERA and 1.66 WHIP away this season; and 2-7 last nine overall team starts during May. With the BoSox 5-10 the last 15 games here in the series against the Pale Hose, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago White Sox.
> Marc’s white hot run on the MLB base paths (18-2 last twenty best bets) continues Wednesday evening with another 10* Killer Play. It’s backed with a perfect winning situation inside the game and it’s yours - if you act now!
I'm recommending a play on the Chicago Cubs with Lester on Wednesday. We had the Cubs on the run line last night and cashed an easy one when Chicago whipped the Pirates for the second straight day. The Cubs are averaging nearly 7 rpg, while winning 12 of 14 games within the NL Central. No Jason Heyward of late? No problem...the team is ultra deep. Lester, like last night's starter, Jake Arrieta, won't likely need a lot of run support, but with the way the Cubs are hitting the ball, he'll probably get it anyway. Lester has opened 2016 with five straight quality starts, while allowing just seven earned runs and 32 base runners in 34 1/3 innings. His team has outscored the opposition 25 to 8 in his outings. Juan Nicasio is off to a hot start for Pittsburgh, especially at PNC. But two of his three home starts came against the Reds and Brewers, teams that rank 23rd & 30th in road team batting average and 26th & 29th in road OBP. Today, he faces one of the best hitting road teams he'll have faced in 2016. I don't believe Nicasio will receive the kind of run support he'll likely need in this matchup. The Pirates haven't been bad at the plate in their last six games, but Andrew McCutchen has struggled of late, and the Bucs, middle-of-the-pack offense isn't likely to damage Jon Lester. The Cubs, 19-6 on the season and 12-3 in road action, are on a 55-21 run against right-handers, going back to last season and we'll back them again here. I'm recommending a play on the Cubs on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
1* Free Play Baltimore Orioles.
The scuffling Yanks send CC Sabathia (1-2, 5.06 ERA) to the hill. The big southpaw took the loss in Texas on Wednesday after giving up three runs on five hits through six innings, striking out five and walking three. Sabathia has allowed exactly three runs in all four of his starts to open the year, the veteran though has not been able to finish five innings in two of those, which is why his ERA is so high. Sabathia’s inflated numbers and 15:11 K:BB ratio are poised to catch up to him and note, he was a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.18 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Tyler Wilson (1-0, 3.06), who gave up two runs and four hits and walk while striking out three over 4.2 innings in his last outing. Wilson has looked good in his limited time this year, note that he sported a 1.29 ERA at home in 2015. Wilson is still green, but we think he can match pace with the erratic Sabathia. The price is right in this one, consider Baltimore on Wednesday.
#MLB Free Pick Wednesday
Play: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are sitting top of the AL East and defeated bottom-dwelling New York Yankees 4-1 last night, the Yankees' sixth consecutive loss. I predict another Orioles win tonight as they send Tyler Wilson (1-0, 3.06) to the mound.
Wilson makes his third start of the season and he's been solid enough in his previous starts with five runs allowed on 10 hits and only one walk through 9 2/3 innings of work. He tossed 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief in his only appearance against the Yankees on June 14.
The Bronx Bombers turn to left-hander CC Sabathia (1-2, 5.06 ERA) who was 0-1 with 11 runs conceded in 16 2/3 innings against the Orioles last year. The current members of the Orioles are hitting a combined .289 against the veteran and Adam Jones is batting .311 with four homers, four doubles and 14 RBI through 61 at bats against Sabathia.
The Yankees' could be without designated hitter Alex Rodriguez who tweaked his right hamstring running out a grounder yesterday.
- Mike Lundin is on a 121-104 Run on the bases. Don't miss his Top Rated 10* AL *GAME OF THE MONTH* that goes Wednesday!
Free Pick on Nationals -
I'm backing the Nationals on the road in Wednesday's series finale against the Royals. Washington will send out their best starter so far this season in Stephen Strasburg, who has looked like a legit Cy Young candidate over the first month of the season. Strasburg is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 5 starts, all of which leading to victories for the Nationals. He's been especially dominant on the road, where he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 starts.
I'll take my chances of Strasburg outperforming Royals' starter Kris Medlen, who has a 4.87 ERA and 1.672 WHIP in 4 starts. Medlen is really struggling with his control early on, as he's walked 16 batters in 20 1/3 innings of work. That's a recipe for disaster against a potent offense like he will face today in Washington.
The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than 60%, 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30 and 7-1 in Strasburg's last 8 starts after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Royals are just 1-5 in their last 6 following a win and 0-4 in Medlen's last 4 home starts. Take Washington!
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Your free play for Wednesday, May 4, 2016 is in baseball as the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Marlins clash in Miami. Marlins Park is a huge park, great for pitchers. Arizona is in town with hard throwing Rubby De La Rosa going, on a nice roll. The team has won his last three starts allowing one run in 14 innings. De La Rosa dominated the Cardinals on Thursday, striking out 10 while allowing just two his and two walks over seven shutout frames. Miami is on a 4-0 run under the total at home and has ace Jose Fernandez going, with 40 strikeouts in 28+ innings. Fernandez struck out eight while limiting the Dodgers to two runs on five hits and three walks in six innings en route to a 5-3 win Thursday. He has a 1.55 ERA at home the last three-plus years and the under is 5-1 in his last six starts with six days of rest. The Under is also 5-2 when Fernandez starts at home against a team with a losing record. When these teams meet the under is 14-5, including 5-2 under here in Miami. Play Arizona/Miami Under the total.
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