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NFL  |  Nov 24, 2014
NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
NY Jets
+3-120
  at  BOVADA
in 3h

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: New York Jets +3

Due to massive amounts of snow in Buffalo this week, the Buffalo Bills won’t be able to play at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The NFL has decided to move their game against the New York Jets to Ford Field in Detroit at the home of the Lions on Monday, November 24th.

Buffalo (5-5) suffered its second straight defeat with a 9-22 road loss at Miami last Thursday. New York (2-8) put an end to its eight-game losing streak with a 20-13 home win over Pittsburgh last time out on November 9th.

This line is very interesting to me. The Bills were going to be 4.5-point home favorites over the Jets had this game been played in Buffalo. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means oddsmakers believe the Bills would be a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral field. This is essentially a neutral field in Detroit, so the Bills should only be 1.5-point favorites. I believe we are getting some value in backing the Jets as 3-point underdogs in this one.

I am also not so sure that the Bills are the better team. The Bills are probably about right where they should be at 5-5. They are dead even in yardage differential with their opponents, which is a number that would resemble a .500 team. They have a poor offense that ranks 25th in the league at 321.6 yards per game, and a solid defense that ranks 6th at 321.6 yards per game allowed.

The Jets, meanwhile, are much better than their 2-8 record would indicate. They are only getting outgained by 4.4 yards per game on the season, which is a number that would also resemble a .500 team. They rank 26th in total offense at 319.4 yards per game, and 7th in total defense at 323.7 yards per game. They have simply been on the wrong end of the turnover battle all season prior to their +4 performance against the Steelers last time out.

Winning the turnover battle helped the Jets to an impressive 20-13 home win over the Steelers. It was a rare occurrence for the Jets, who only forced three turnovers through their first nine games of the year. They were simply unlucky up to that point, and should receive much better fortune in the second half in this department, which started with that game against Pittsburgh.

The Jets come into this game on two weeks’ rest having last played on November 9th. They certainly needed this break as they were probably pretty fatigued having to play 10 straight weeks to open the season. I believe they will come back rejuvenated, especially since they beat the Steelers prior to their bye, which would have made these two weeks off much more enjoyable and productive.

I know that the Bills beat the Jets 43-23 in their first meeting this season, but that was a very misleading final score. The Jets actually outgained the Bills 312-280 for the game, or by 32 total yards. The Bills simply took advantage of six turnovers by the Jets in the win. They scored 43 points on 280 total yards, which is unheard of. Now, the Jets will be wanting revenge in the rematch on Monday.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) – revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1993. The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points. New York is 47-28 ATS in its last 75 road games versus division opponents.  Bet the Jets Monday.

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NBA  |  Nov 24, 2014
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
+5½-115
  at  BMAKER
in 4h

FREE PLAY for 11/24

Charlotte Hornets +5.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for the Clippers playing their second road game in as many days. The Clippers are just 3-9 ATS on the season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest. LA is coming off a 107-91 loss in Memphis so it should be noted that it is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a loss and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 while the Hornets are on a 15-2 ATS run versus teams with a win percentage of .510 to .600. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

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NBA  |  Nov 24, 2014
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
+12½-103
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

Off a PERFECT 6-0 SWEEP on Sunday, Ben Burns is stepping out HUGE on Monday.

Ben has BIG plays going on both the Saints/Bengals AND the Jets/Bills games. 

Here, he takes a look at tonight’s Portland/Philly contest.

Its true. Portland has been playing well. Philadelphia has not. 

That said, I feel this line is pretty generous. 

While the 76’ers had the day off, the Blazers played yesterday, a 94-88 victory at Boston. 

Playing their third game in the past four days – and perhaps patting themselves on the back a little – I feel the Blazers may not be fully focused on lowly Philly. 

The 76’ers haven’t seen this many points for a home game all season. They’re 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were home underdogs of 12.5 or more points. Consider Philadelphia.

NBA  |  Nov 24, 2014
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers
-12-110
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

On Monday the free NBA Dominator play is on the Portland Trailblazers. Game 703 at 7:05 eastern. The Blazers are rolling and have won 6 straight. They are 8-2 ats this month and 5-0 ats vs an opponent who allows 99 or more points per game. The Sixers have dropped 40 of 65 to the spread when the total is 200 to 205 and have dropped 5 of 7 to the spread vs winning teams. Last season the Blazers were 34 point winners here. The winning team in this series has covered 29 of 20 times. Look for a solid Blazer team to lay it on the Sixers here tonight. On Monday there are 4 Powerful plays up. The Triple Perfect Monday night football side. An NBA Total and 2 Big Power play in College Hoops. Football is ranked #1 on several high end leader boards and hoops is hot. Jump on now and put the Most Powerful data in the industry on your side. For the free play. Take Portland. RV

NFL  |  Nov 24, 2014
NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Total
42 ov-105
  at  5DIMES
in 3h

Free Pick on Jets/Bills OVER

What was originally scheduled to be a home game for the Bills on Sunday, will now be played at Detroit’s Ford Field tonight. I believe this has created some exceptional value on the OVER, as we are to have ideal conditions inside the Dome. Both of these teams have some fast players who should be able to take advantage of the fast playing surface at Ford Field, which should lead to a bunch of big plays and quick scores.

It’s also worth noting that these two teams have a history of going over the total. They combined for 66 points at New York back in Week 8 with a total set of just 40 points. In the last 9 meetings between these two teams, 7 have gone OVER the total, with the fewest combined points in all 9 games being 37.

The situation also presents a great possibility for a high-scoring game. Buffalo has barely been able to get any practice time in because of that huge snow storm and neither squad will be benefiting from the emotional lift of the home fans. I believe this weird scenario is going to take away from the defensive intensity of both squads.

Adding to all of this is a great system. The OVER is 106-66 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total set between 35.5 to 42 points in a matchup of two average defensive teams (allowing 295 to 335 yards/game) at least 9 games into the season. That’s a 62% system backing this one to finish above the mark. Take the OVER!

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NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Washington Redskins
+10½-130
  at  5DIMES
in 5d

1* Free Play Washington Redskins.

RG III and company kept it close in San Francisco last weekend and I think the offensive unit will have a much easier time moving the ball against the Colts; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe this is too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side. Washington is just 3-8, but its overall stats simply aren’t that horrible. 7th overall in passing, 16th in rushing yards, 10th in opponent passing yards and 11th in opponent rushing yards. How about the Colts? Indianapolis is No. 1 in the league in passing, but just 17th in rushing yards. It’s also dismal defensively, 27th in opponent passing yards and 17th in opponent rushing yards. Washington will have its opportunities on offense today. The Colts are on the road in Cleveland the following week, so this doesn’t set up as a “look ahead” spot, but note Andrew Luck and the Indinapolis offensive line looked pretty shaky vs. the Jaguars, Luck finished 21 of 32 for just 253 yards with one TD pass and ran eight times for 49 yards; but note that he was sacked five times, fumbled three times and lost two, all in the first half. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of suspect lines I always keep my eyes open for, consider a second look at WASHINGTON in this one.

AAA Sports

NBA  |  Nov 24, 2014
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Charlotte Hornets
Los Angeles Clippers
-4½-113
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

I’m recommending a play on the Clippers on Monday night.  When the Clippers left California for their current east coast road trip, we stated it would be good for the Clips to get away from home as they look to find a rhythm that has escaped them in the early going.  We also felt games against Orlando, Miami, and Charlotte would afford Doc Rivers’ troops a chance to garner three victories.  So far so good.  The Clippers beat the first two teams mentioned before getting knocked around in Memphis on Sunday.  Chris Paul played well against the Grizzlies, but the Clippers were pushed around inside and Blake Griffin had a poor night from the field, making just 5-of-17 shots.  Charlotte doesn’t have the “goods” to hang with Griffin or DeAndre Jordan for that matter and I expect a refocused effort from the visitors from the west coast. While the Hornets have dropped five straight games (0-3-2 ATS), the Clippers have yet to drop two straight games this season.  We believe they’ll rebound with a win on Monday.  I’m recommending a play on the Clippers minus the points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

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Doc’s Monday NBA Bookie Buster

Doc’s Sports loves one side for Monday, and they think that this game will be an absolute massacre. The oddsmakers laid another egg here on Monday, and Doc’s is ready to clean up the mess.



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