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Boston swept the Tuesday doubleheader over Tampa Bay as it allowed just two runs total to make it four straight wins at home. I expect that to come to an end tonight however despite the recent dominance over the Rays. Ryan Dempster has tossed four straight quality outings but Boston has only two wins to show for it and that has been the story all season. His inconsistency has been an issue which is one of the main reasons the Red Sox are just 6-8 in his 14 starts despite giving him an average of 5.0 rpg. They have actually given him more runs at home but he is just 3-5 with Boston going 4-6 in those 10 starts. The Rays are struggling not only against Boston but against everyone it seems of late as they are just 2-8 over their last 10 games. The offense has been the problem most recently as Tampa Bay has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games but I see a breakout here behind Jeremy Hellickson. The Rays have given him 5.9 rpg this season of support and that is a big reason they are 7-7 in his 14 starts despite his 5.67 ERA. He has been all over the place and he is coming off a game where he allowed eight runs against Kansas City. The last time he allowed eight runs in an outing, he bounced back with a quality performance in his next start. He has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts against Boston and the Rays are 4-1 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. Play (967) Tampa Bay Rays

The Milwaukee Brewers will be motivated to bounce back from a 1-10 loss to Houston in Game 1 of this series Tuesday. I like their chances of responding with a victory considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Kyle Lohse continues to pitch at a high level while coming off a career year last season with St. Louis. The right-hander has posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 13 starts in 2013. Lohse is also 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts.

Erik Bedard is clearly washed up as he just hasn’t been the same starter he once was. The left-hander has gone 2-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.618 WHIP over 12 starts this season.

Lohse is 10-7 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 18 career starts against Houston. Meanwhile, Bedard is 0-2 with a massive 11.87 ERA and 1.918 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee.

Lohse is 15-2 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 26-53 in their last 79 games as a home underdog. Houston is 54-124 in its last 178 games as an underdog overall. Bet the Brewers Wednesday.

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10* graded play on the Washington Nationals as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in NL east action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Both teams are struggling to string wins together and make any progress in closing the gap the Braves enjoy leading the NL East Division. Kyle Kendrick will start for Philadelphia and so far this season he is tops in run support with his teammates averaging 4.50 RPG. That is a critical stat as Washington really struggles to score runs. Moreover, they are just 14-23 (-14.3 Units) against the money line when facing an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Nats are batting an anemic .213 and scoring 3.2 RPG in 39 road games. Phillies are batting .254 and scoring 4.3 RPG in 33 home games. Although Gio has been pitching very well for the Nats recently, I strongly believe the Phillies will score enough runs to win this game and complete the sweep of the Nationals.

On Wednesday the free MLB System play is on the LA. Dodgers. Game 975 at 7:05 eastern. We want to Play against Home Favorites with a total that is 8 or less that are off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs. These Home favorites are losing 80% of the time if both teams had a total of 8 or less in their last game. The Yankees are off a long 10 game road trip and teams coming home off long trips have trouble in the first game back having a hard time focusing as they get back home. The Yankees are hitting just .200 and scoring 3 runs per game the past week. On the Season the Yanks are hitting just .228 vs leftys. Tonight they will Face Lefty Chirs Capuano who has a solid 2.77 road era. NY will counter with Phil Hughes who has a 6.52 home era. The Yankees are hitting just .219 vs National League teams while scoring just 2.3 runs. Look for the Dodgers to take game one of the series. On Wednesday get on the Giving End of Hum Day with a Big Triple Play pack Featuring the 5* 18-1 Blowout Game of the week, a Perfect Dog system and a Solid totals play with 6 angles. Jump on and Cash out. For the free play take the LA. Dodgers. RV

The outlook is grim for the Oakland A’s when they take on the Texas Rangers and starting pitcher Justin Grimm today. Grimm has 27 strikeouts in 33 innings pitched at home this season and he has walked just 8 batters during that span. He should have no problems getting run support from a Rangers team that is batting .264 and scoring 5.2 runs per game against division opponents.

The Oakland A’s are batting .248 as a team and they have been struck out a total of 547 times in their 72 games. Facing a strikeout pitcher like Grimm should cause Oakland a lot of problems offensively today. When you look at Oakland statistically they perform poorly at getting on base against right handed starters. I expect to see Grimm have a solid performance and the Rangers bullpen to build on their 84.6% save percentage.

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PLAY ON: ST LOUIS -158 (MLB)

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White Sox -134 (Chris Sale 2* Play)
Chris Sale continues to dominate without getting anything in the win column. He’s 0-3 in his last three starts despite a 0.84 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA. Chris Sale continues to flourish and he really reminds me of Hall of Fame great Randy Johnson. He has great numbers against the Minnesota Twins in his career over three career starts he posts a 0.90 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. Twins hitters have just .473 OPS and a .175 average against the south paw in 63 AB.

Why are we getting so much value? Well lets be honest the White Sox offense has been awful, but I think we have seen the end to their terrible play recently. In their last 10 games they are scoring 5.19 runs per 9 vs. RHP and they have good numbers against the Twins RHP Kevin Correia with a 1.053 OPS in 49 AB. The Twins are also just 14-51 in their last 65 games vs. a starter with a WHIP under 1.15.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Kyle Lohse (2-1, 20 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Joe Saunders (2-1, 19.2 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 2.29 ERA)
Chris Tillman (3-0, 19 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.42 ERA)
Rick Porcello (2-1, 19 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Jose Fernandez (3-0, 20 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
Luis Mendoza (2-1, 17.1 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Eric Stults (2-1, 23 IP, 0.70 WHIP, 1.57 ERA)
Gio Gonzalez (0-3, 20 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Jeff Locke (1-2, 18.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Bronson Arroyo (2-1, 21. 2 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 1.66 ERA)
Tommy Milone (1-2, 20.2 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 2.18 ERA)
Kris Medlen (2-1, 19.2 IP, 1.12 whip, 1.83 ERA)
Mark Buehrle (2-1, 20 IP, 1.10 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Justin Grimm (1-2, 15 IP, 2.00 WHIP, 11.40 ERA)
Trevor Cahill (0-3, 14.1 IP, 2.09 WHIP, 9.40 ERA)

Roy Oswalt (0-0, 0.00 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Oswalt makes his debut after signing with the Rockies in May and making five starts in Double-A where he posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his 33 1/3′s innings of work. Oswalt will be opposed by Jordan Zimmermann (9-3, 2.44 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits with a walk while striking out six over five innings of work, lucky to escape with a no-decision. Despite the sub-par effort, Zimmermann has of course been as solid as it gets this year and has allowed 13 runs of his last 26 innings of work (note that he’s a perfect 6-0 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA in seven starts at Nationals Park). Colorado struggled to put runs on the board in Toronto and faces a buzzsaw in Zimmermann in the first game of this four game set. Oswalt comes into this contest in form; I definitely feel the table is set for these two competent starters to battle into the latter frames and for this one to sneak below the posted number. How about you? Duel or slugfest?

AAA