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Dave's Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Los Angeles Lakers +17.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are trying to become the first team in NBA history to open a season 16-0. They are getting all the headlines right now because of it. With that kind of attention from the national media, the Warriors are heavily overvalued as 17.5-point favorites against the Lakers tonight. The Lakers haven't exactly been world beaters, but they've only lost by more than 14 points twice this season. They played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, winning 115-105 as 10-point home dogs, and losing 105-108 as 18-point road dogs. The Lakers are 27-13 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Los Angeles.
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The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are on the bubble as far as the playoffs are concerned, and they need a win here at Stanford, and possibly some help from teams like Nebraska, Penn State or TCU. The Cardinal's playoff hopes are a little slimmer, but they've already punched a ticket to the PAC12 Championship Game, and a win over the Irish could keep them in the discussion. My money is on a Stanford team that has a far more impressive body of work.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Christian McCaffrey - The Heisman hopeful ran for 192 yards on 29 carries last week, and he also rank back a 98 yard kick for a TD. He should find plenty of room to run against a Notre Dame team that surrendered 214 rushing yards to Boston College last week.
2. Injuries - The Irish are really banged up, and last week they lost leading rusher C.J. Prosise to a high ankle sprain. He's not likely to play on Saturday versus Stanford.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinal are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games, and they've covered in seven of their last nine versus a team with a winning record.
Selection: This is a play on the Stanford Cardinal (Free)
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