UFC Raleigh: Arnold Allen vs. Nik Lentz Pick
Ready for Free UFC Raleigh: Allen vs. Lentz Pick and betting odds & predictions? Here is a full breakdown of the leadup, what to expect during the fight, and some logical outcomes.
Event: UFC Raleigh
Date: January 25th, 2020
Time: Main Card: 8 P.M. EST.
Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina
Broadcast: Live on ESPN+
Main Event: Arnold Allen (-270) vs. Nik Lentz (+215)
Allen and Lentz will serve as a preliminary fight for the first ESPN+ card of 2020. Both men had a fight booked for this event that was later cancelled, so now these two will share a 3 round dance together.
Allen was slated to fight 145 pound nightmare Josh Emmett, but Emmett withdrew from the bout due to an undisclosed reason. That fight was slated to be on the main card and was my fight of the night prediction.
The winner of that fight would have catapulted into the upper echelon of the division and would deem themselves the fighter to keep an eye on at featherweight.
Allen has been nothing short of spectacular since joining the UFC in 2015. He is 6-0 in his UFC career and will look to extend that winning streak with a win over Lentz. He most recently beat former prodigy Gilbert Melendez at UFC 239.
Lentz was originally scheduled to face Nad Narimani, but Narimani pulled out due to injury.
He has been a bit inconsistent as of late, going 3-3 in his last 6 bouts dating back to 2017. His most recent lost came against Charles Oliveira, who is scheduled to headline an ESPN+ card against Kevin Lee.
Looking at UFC Raleigh as a whole, this fight should be on the main card.
I realize Lentz doesn’t have much appeal as a 35 year old fighter probably on the back end of his career, but Allen is someone the UFC needs to get behind and get behind fast. He hasn’t lost in the UFC, is only 26 years old, and could be massive for the English market.
As for what to expect in this fight, Allen should look to stay at range with a high intensity and high volume striking. As long as Allen doesn’t catch Lentz on the way in, I don’t think Allen stops Lentz.
Lentz has only been stopped by one fighter since 2013, Charles Oliveira, who is a renowned stoppage fighter.
I would imagine this fight will be, at least for the majority of it, on the feet. I don’t think either fighter has interest in bringing this to the ground, although both have the skills to do damage when a fight hits the mat.
Allen has won two UFC bouts by stoppage and both are by submission. Keep an eye on that if this fight gets into the later rounds.
Rizz’s MMA Betting Trends/Statistics
- In his UFC career, Allen is 4-0 SU as a favorite
- Since returning to featherweight, Lentz is 2-3 in bouts as an underdog
- Three of Allen’s last four fights have went the distance
- Lentz’s last fight ended by stoppage. Throughout his last 10 fights, he has not had consecutive fights end by stoppage.
- Allen has won four of his UFC bouts by decision and two by submission
- Allen has been a favorite in his last three bouts
MMA Betting UFC 246 Pick: Arnold Allen
Although the experience lies heavily with Lentz, I don’t see a way he wins this fight. Allen is the more well rounded fighter and should show this here. He is a -270 favorite, which is too rich for my blood.
Doing some more digging, there is value with picking the way Allen wins, though. Arnold Allen by points is +100, which holds massive amounts of value.
Even though Lentz looked fragile in his last fight, I don’t think he will get knocked out here as Allen hasn’t won by TKO/KO in his UFC career. Allen by submission holds more value than any wager on this card, though. +800.
I think it is a real possibility and everyone should be advised on it. So, take Allen by points at +100 and rub up on Allen by submission by +800.