UFC 246 Free Pick: Pettis vs. Ferreira
Ready for a Free UFC 246 Pick for Pettis vs. Ferreira and betting odds & predictions? Here is a full breakdown of the leadup, what to expect during the fight, and some logical outcomes.
Event: UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Date: January 18th, 2020
Time: Main Card: 10 P.M. EST.
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Broadcast: PPV on ESPN+
Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira
Pettis vs. Ferreira was somewhat of a late add to UFC 246. This fight is unlike most other UFC 246 bouts because Pettis, 32, and Ferreira, 34, both are credited fighters with established followings. Most fights on this card, or any Conor McGregor led event, are between two young, rising prospects that the UFC is trying to build a brand for. This fight is still a high level fight between two veterans that has fight of the night potential.
Pettis will be returning back to lightweight where he once held UFC gold. He is returning from a brief stint at welterweight where he knocked out Stephen Thompson and lost to Nate Diaz. Since losing his lightweight strap, Pettis has been extremely inconsistent and has lost more fights than he has won.
He is 4-6 in his last 10 fights, fluctuating between three different weight classes. He hopes to bring some consistency back into his career with a win over the favored Ferreira
Unlike Pettis, Ferreira’s career is trending upwards since losing to Dustin Poirier in 2015. Since then, he is 5-0 with two of those wins coming by knockout. The problem many have with Ferreira is his resume. He has not beaten anybody with name value, but beating a man like Anthony Pettis? That would do the trick and put him within the top 15 lightweights in the UFC, poised for yet another big fight.
The obvious, glaring question is will he beat Pettis and cash in as a -230 favorite? That depends on a few things: Pettis’ weight cut, if the fight goes to the ground, and who has the striking advantage.
Pettis cutting weight doesn’t seem like a significant issue since he has fought as low as 145 pounds, but it is a bigger issue than some are leading on. Cutting 15 extra pounds than what your body has been accustomed to for about a year is no easy task, especially when you are 32.
I think Pettis is fully capable of having a healthy weight cut, but it’s an issue to be advised on and keep your eye on if you plan on betting this fight.
This fight hitting the ground and becoming a grappling or wrestling match is possible. When his fights hit the ground, Ferreira implements heavy ground and pound, similar to what he did to Jared Gordon. Both Pettis and Ferreira are black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so if this turns into a grappling match, it would be highly contested.
Pettis has submitted the likes of Michael Chiesa, Charles Oliveira, Gilbert Melendez, and Benson Henderson, so his grappling resume in the UFC is definitely more decorated than Ferreira’s.
Knowing exactly who has the striking advantage is a tricky question that has no clear cut answer. Pettis has the power advantage, but Ferreira does a lot of work in the clinch and on the fence, which Diaz had success with against Pettis. If Pettis can keep distance and establish his reach, he should be able to land. If Ferreira can keep Pettis on the outside and implement knee strikes on the fence, he has the advantage.
Rizz’s MMA Betting Trends/Statistics
- Pettis has not lost consecutive fights since 2016
- Throughout his UFC career, Pettis is 3-2 SU as an underdog
- Ferreira has only been a favorite twice in his UFC career and is 2-0 in said bouts
- Pettis is 4-4 professionally fighting in Las Vegas, Nevada
MMA Betting UFC 246 Pick: Anthony Pettis
I’ll take the dog in Pettis here strictly because Ferreira has never faced anyone near the same talent level as Pettis and all the value sits with him at +185. To the moon.