2020 PGA Genesis Invitational Preview and Picks
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2020 AT&T Genesis Invitational Handicapping
- Where: Riviera CC, Pacific Palisades, CA
- Date: February 13-February 16, 2020
- Format: Stroke
- Defending Champion: J.B. Holmes
- TV Coverage: Golf Channel, CBS
- Updated Sportsbook Bonuses For Today
This is the fifth PGA event I’ve capped here at CappersPicks, and I’ve been on a roll lately.
So, we’re on a heater.
2020 Genesis Invitational Betting Odds
Rory McIlroy +800
Rory is the favorite coming into this one after regaining the #1 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings on Feb. 10th. It’s the first time he’s held that prestigious position since 2015.
Rory’s been on a good run recently. In his previous four starts, Rory has: Finished T-3rd at the Zozo, won at WGC-HSBC, finished 4th at the DP World Tour Championship, and then finished T-3rd at the Farmers.
Justin Thomas +1000
The current FedEx points leader, JT comes into the tournament looking for his third win of the season.
He’s played here four times, and only cracked the top-35 just last year. Of course, that finish is not easy to forget, as JT held the 54-hole lead last year and then proceeded to completely collapse. He shot a four-over 75 on Sunday to finish as the runner up by one stroke.
Tiger Woods +1400
Tiger is Back!
And as much as that excites us all, here’s a fun fact to bring Tiger fans down to earth: This is the only course on tour that he’s played more than four times without winning.
So, yeah, he’s never “mastered” Riviera like he has every other course in the world. However, it’s not like he’s been a total bum here either. Tiger’s played this event 12 times, and his top finishes include a T-2nd in ’99, a T-5th in ’04, and a T-15th last year.
The problem with how badly I want to bet on Tiger, is that everyone wants to bet on Tiger. Which generally means he’s overvalued. Taking him at 14-1 at Riviera is just not very smart gambling, from a math standpoint.
From a “fun” standpoint, you should bet your mortgage on Tiger.
2020 Genesis Invitational Free Picks (Our Recommended Betting Plays)
Justin Thomas top-10 +100
Yeah, yeah, this is a square pick.
However, I think this pick is worth the even money, especially as a hedge against picking your outright winners. Here’s why:
Thomas has been en fuego recently. The FedEx Cup points leader has five T-10s and two victories in seven starts this season. Additionally, he’s begun to figure out Riviera, and will be motivated following his disgusting Sunday performance last year.
Just throw two or three units on this. If none of your other picks hit, you’ll go to bed Sunday night flat-even on PGA this week.
Rory McIlroy +800
One of my cardinal rules in PGA is that I never bet the outright favorite. However, I don’t particularly like the other guys in this “heavy favorite” tier. So, screw it.
Rory is on a streak of good finishes, is back on top of the World Golf Rankings, and is coming off of a T-4th place finish last year. Additionally, both of his starts at Riviera before that were top-20s (2016 and 2018).
Plus, it’s fun to bet on Rory. And while 8-1 isn’t “good” value, I don’t think it’s bad value in this spot either.
Bubba Watson +1800
Here are the winners from the last six Genesis Invitationals:
- 2019: J.B. Holmes
- 2018: Bubba Watson
- 2017: Dustin Johnson
- 2016: Bubba Watson
- 2015: James Hahn
- 2014: Bubba Watson
You’re not a true degenerate if you don’t take Bubba here. However, for those who aren’t as “superstitious”, for lack of a better word, Bubba’s been in good form recently. His last two starts include a T-3rd at the Phoenix Open and a T-6th at the Farmers.
I really like Bubba this week, because he’s got that combination of playing well here in the past and playing well recently. This is the pick of the week.
Phil Mickelson +4000
Phil at 40-1 here is real juicy odds. It’s great value for a guy who just killed his 22-event-long slump without a top-10. The lefty just posted back-to-back third place finishes, including last week in a stacked field at Pebble beach.
Additionally, Mickelson is a two-time winner at Riviera (2008 and 2009), and a two-time playoff runner-up (2007 and 2012). Phil is really feeling himself recently, and is going to break through for a win at some point. Why not here? He loves it here!
Full Handicapping Odds To Win The 2020 Genesis Open
- Rory McIlroy: 8-1
- Jon Rahm: 10-1
- Justin Thomas: 10-1
- Dustin Johnson: 12-1
- Tiger Woods: 14-1
- Bubba Watson: 18-1
- Brooks Koepka: 20-1
- Patrick Cantlay: 20-1
- Tony Finau: 22-1
- Xander Schauffele: 22-1
- Adam Scott: 33-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 33-1
- Jason Day: 33-1
- Justin Rose: 33-1
- Jordan Spieth: 40-1
- Marc Leishman: 40-1
- Patrick Reed: 40-1
- Phil Mickelson: 40-1
- Abraham Ancer: 50-1
- Bryson DeChambeau: 50-1
- Mollin Morikawa: 50-1
- Paul Casey: 50-1
- J.B. Holmes: 66-1
- Matt Kuchar: 66-1
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: 66-1
- Sergio Garcia: 66-1
- Sungjae Im: 66-1
- Joaquin Niemann: 80-1
- Kevin Na: 80-1
- Adam Hadwin: 100-1
- Alex Noren: 100-1
- Branden Grace: 100-1
- Cameron Champ: 100-1
- Cameron Smith: 100-1
- Charles Howell III: 100-1
- Corey Conners: 100-1
- Francesco Molinari: 100-1
- Max Homa: 100-1
- Nick Taylor: 100-1
- Ryan Moore: 100-1
- Scottie Scheffler: 100-1