NASCAR 2026 Handicapping Odds
2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Prediction coverage is here as the Cup Series heads under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway for the third race of the 2026 Chase. Looking for free NASCAR picks, betting odds, and handicapping insight? CappersPicks.com breaks down the contenders, Bristol history, betting value, and our outright plays for Saturday night.
Two Chase races are down, and now we get Bristol. Kyle Larson comes in hot after dominating last weekend at Gateway, Christopher Bell won the opening Chase race, and Denny Hamlin still owns the top spot in the championship standings.
Throw 500 laps at Bristol into the middle of all that and things should stay nice and calm.
Yeah, right.
NASCAR 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview and Prediction
Founded: 1961
Race: 2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Track: Bristol Motor Speedway
Location: Bristol, Tennessee
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Broadcast: USA
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- Scroll down for our 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions
NASCAR Handicapping
The Chase rolls into Bristol with Kyle Larson suddenly looking a whole lot more dangerous. His win at Gateway last weekend moved him into the top three in the standings, and now he gets a track where he’s already won three times.
Not exactly terrible timing. Larson has won this race twice in the last five years and was excellent at Bristol again in the spring. He won both stages, led 284 laps, and posted an average running position of 1.7 before finishing third.
Denny Hamlin still sits on top of the standings. He’s coming off another top-10 finish and has two Bass Pro Shops Night Race victories on his résumé. Hamlin won here in 2019 and again in 2023, so Bristol certainly isn’t a mystery to the No. 11 team.
Then we’ve got defending race winner Christopher Bell. Bell pulled off a hell of a finish here last September, charging from fifth to first over the final four laps.
He survived a shot from Brad Keselowski in the final corner and still won by 0.343 seconds.
Bristol doesn’t give you much time to think. Five hundred laps, traffic everywhere, and one mistake can turn a good night into junk before you finish swearing at the TV.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Strategy & NASCAR Edge
I’m putting plenty of weight on Bristol history this week, but current form matters too. That’s why Kyle Larson is sitting at the top of my card despite the ugly +400 price. He’s been too good here to ignore.
Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney are both +650, and I can make a case for either one. Bell is the defending winner, while Blaney keeps getting closer to finally winning at Bristol.
Then we’ve got Joey Logano at +1200.
This is the time of year when Logano has a nasty habit of showing up. He’s opened the Chase with finishes of ninth and third, and he also turned the fastest lap last weekend at Gateway. My fifth outright is considerably more ridiculous.
Todd Gilliland is +50000. That’s 500-to-1, so nobody needs to refinance the house here, but his sixth-place run at Bristol in the spring after starting 35th is enough to get a tiny piece of my attention.
There are plenty of other ways to attack Saturday night. Top-5s, Top-10s, driver matchups, and live betting could give us better options after practice and qualifying. Bristol can change quickly, so I’m keeping some bullets in the chamber.
Why the Bass Pro Shops Night Race Creates Betting Value
The top of the board isn’t subtle.
Kyle Larson is +400, Ty Gibbs is +450, and Denny Hamlin is +550. Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney follow at +650, giving us five drivers priced below +700. That’s pretty damn tight.
I’m still willing to use Larson because his Bristol résumé backs up the price. Bell and Blaney also make my card, but I’m not interested in blindly collecting every favorite and hoping one of them gets there. The better number comes with Logano at +1200.
He’s won this race twice and comes into Bristol running well.
If the No. 22 gives him a car that can stay near the front Saturday night, +1200 is a number I can work with. Then there’s Gilliland.
He’s obviously not in the same class as the other four plays. That’s also why the sportsbook is offering us +50000 instead of +500.
I don’t need Todd Gilliland to be as likely to win as Kyle Larson. At 500-to-1, I just need the sportsbook to be underestimating him by enough to make a small bet interesting.
Why Bristol Is Different
Bristol isn’t a place where you can disappear for 300 laps and expect everything to work itself out later. Traffic comes quickly, laps disappear in a hurry, and one bad pit stop can bury a driver deeper than he wants to be. Track position matters.
So does keeping the car clean.
Bell found that out the wrong way in the spring when a pit-road speeding penalty and later contact with the wall helped turn his afternoon into a 27th-place finish. That’s Bristol.
The good news for bettors is that the best cars usually make themselves pretty obvious here. Larson led 284 laps in the spring, and Blaney has steadily improved in each of his Next Gen Bristol starts.
- Bristol history carries weight.
- Track position matters.
- Pit-road mistakes get expensive quickly.
- Long-run speed will matter over 500 laps.
- Traffic can turn a good car into a bad bet in a hurry.
Last Year at Bristol
Christopher Bell won the 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, but he certainly didn’t cruise to it. Bell was sitting fifth with four laps remaining.
He charged through the field, got to the front, and then had Brad Keselowski planted on his rear bumper coming through the final corner. Bell held him off. The margin was only 0.343 seconds, and the win punched Bell’s ticket into the next round under last year’s postseason format.
It was exactly the kind of late-race mess Bristol has been producing forever.
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That’s worth remembering Saturday. You can have the best car for most of the night and still lose this race in the final few laps. Conversely, hang around long enough with a good car and suddenly Bristol can hand you another chance.
Past Winners – Bass Pro Shops Night Race
There’s a lot more history to work with this week than we had at Gateway. The last 10 Bass Pro Shops Night Races include repeat wins from Larson, Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, while Bell comes back as the defending champion. Joe Gibbs Racing has won three of the last seven.
- 2025 — Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing)
- 2024 — Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports)
- 2023 — Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing)
- 2022 — Chris Buescher (RFK Racing)
- 2021 — Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports)
- 2020 — Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing)
- 2019 — Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing)
- 2018 — Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing)
- 2017 — Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing)
- 2016 — Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing)
Larson has two wins in the last five editions of this race. Hamlin owns two in the last seven, and Bell is trying to become the first back-to-back winner since Harvick won in 2019 and 2020.
There’s some useful history here.
Complete NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Odds
Kyle Larson opens as the +400 favorite after last week’s Gateway win. Ty Gibbs is right behind him at +450, with Denny Hamlin +550 and Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney both +650. Then the board finally starts to breathe.
- Kyle Larson +400
- Ty Gibbs +450
- Denny Hamlin +550
- Christopher Bell +650
- Ryan Blaney +650
- Chase Briscoe +1000
- Joey Logano +1200
- Alex Bowman +2000
- Chase Elliott +2000
- William Byron +2200
- Brad Keselowski +2200
- Tyler Reddick +2200
- Carson Hocevar +2500
- Chris Buescher +3000
- Bubba Wallace +3500
- Josh Berry +4000
- Austin Cindric +4500
- Ross Chastain +5000
- Ryan Preece +5000
The prices get considerably bigger from here. And yes, eventually we get all the way to Todd Gilliland at +50000.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Free Picks
My 2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Prediction starts with Kyle Larson +400, Christopher Bell +650, and Ryan Blaney +650. All three have strong Bristol cases, although we’re certainly not getting bargain-bin prices. Joey Logano at +1200 gives me a little more room.
Then I’m throwing one dart at Todd Gilliland +50000 after that sixth-place run here in the spring.
I’m not pretending he’s suddenly Larson because he had one good Bristol race, but 500-to-1 gives me plenty of room to be wrong. Five outright plays.
Let’s get into them.
2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds: Kyle Larson +400
Kyle Larson gets the first ticket this week, and nobody needs me to explain why he’s the favorite for very long. He’s won three times at Bristol, including two of the last five Bass Pro Shops Night Races. Then look at what he did here in the spring.
Larson won Stage 1, won Stage 2, and led a race-high 284 laps. His average running position was 1.7, yet after dominating most of the afternoon he somehow ended up third.
NASCAR bettors know that movie.
You handicap the race correctly, your guy dominates for hours, and then somebody else takes the trophy while you’re staring at the TV wondering what the hell just happened. I’m going right back.
Larson won last weekend at Gateway and now returns to one of his best tracks. +400 isn’t pretty, but sometimes the favorite is the favorite because he’s the most likely guy to kick everybody’s ass. My 2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Prediction starts with Larson.
2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds: Christopher Bell +650
Christopher Bell is the defending winner of this race. He also comes into Bristol sitting near the top of the championship standings after winning the opening race of the Chase.
The spring Bristol race was another story. Bell finished 27th after getting nailed for speeding on pit road and later putting the car into the wall. That’s a lousy afternoon, but I’m not treating it like proof he suddenly forgot how to race Bristol.
He showed us that last September. Bell went from fifth to first over the final four laps and held off Keselowski after contact in the final corner. That’s exactly the kind of driver I want when Bristol gets stupid late.
At +650, he’s my second play.
2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds: Ryan Blaney +650
Ryan Blaney still hasn’t won at Bristol. He keeps getting closer.
Blaney’s Next Gen finishes here have gone sixth, fifth, fourth, and second. You don’t need to be Rain Man to spot the direction that sequence is heading. Of course, NASCAR doesn’t hand out trophies because the pattern looks cute.
What matters more is that Blaney has repeatedly put himself near the front at this track.
He was one of the best drivers in the spring race and came away with another runner-up finish. The +650 price puts him right beside Bell.
I’m fine with it. Blaney has been knocking on this Bristol door long enough that I’m willing to bet he finally kicks the damn thing open Saturday night.
NASCAR Odds: Joey Logano +1200
Joey Logano at +1200 is where I start getting a little more interested in the price. He’s finished ninth and third in the first two Chase races, and he recorded the fastest lap at Gateway last weekend. He’s warming up at the right time.
We’ve seen this movie with Logano before.
The calendar gets late, everybody starts talking about the obvious championship favorites, and suddenly the No. 22 starts hanging around the front every week. Bristol isn’t foreign territory either.
Logano won this race in consecutive seasons in 2014 and 2015. Those wins aren’t exactly fresh off the printer, but they still tell us he’s comfortable racing this place. At +1200, I don’t need much convincing.
Keep Logano around the front heading into the final 50 laps and I’ve got a ticket I want in my pocket.
NASCAR Odds: Todd Gilliland +50000
Todd Gilliland at +50000 is the lunatic ticket.
Let’s establish that right away. Gilliland started 35th in the spring Bristol race and somehow drove all the way to sixth.
Moving forward 29 spots at Bristol isn’t nothing, especially when we’re being offered 500-to-1 this time around. Does that make him likely to win Saturday?
Of course not.
If Gilliland were likely to win, the sportsbook wouldn’t be giving us a number that looks like a typo. This is a tiny longshot play based on what he showed here in the spring and the ridiculous price attached to him now. I don’t need much on it.
If he runs 24th all night, we’ll survive. If he’s somehow hanging around the top five with 30 laps left, suddenly that stupid little ticket gets awfully entertaining.
Best Mid-Tier NASCAR Bets at Bristol
Chase Briscoe is the first driver outside my five outright plays who deserves some attention. He’s +1000, which puts him in an awkward spot between the favorites and the better double-digit numbers. Then we get Logano at +1200.
Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott are both +2000, while William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and Tyler Reddick sit together at +2200.
There are some good drivers in that group, but I’m not turning Saturday night into a 12-driver outright card. Keselowski is interesting after nearly stealing this race last year. He finished just 0.343 seconds behind Bell and was right on his bumper in the final corner.
At +2200, that’s at least enough to make me check his practice speed and starting spot before race time. Chris Buescher is another name worth remembering.
He won this race in 2022 and is +3000 this week. Again, I may prefer him in a matchup or Top-10 market rather than adding another outright.
Longshot Drivers Worth a Smaller Look
Once we get beyond +3000, the numbers get tempting in a hurry. Bubba Wallace is +3500, Josh Berry +4000, Austin Cindric +4500, and Ross Chastain and Ryan Preece are both +5000. That’s where discipline starts becoming useful.
You can talk yourself into half the field if you stare at NASCAR longshot odds long enough. I’ve done it, you’ve probably done it, and the sportsbook is always happy to accept our generous donation.
Gilliland is my exception this week. The +50000 number is absurd, but so was starting 35th and finishing sixth here in the spring. That’s enough for a very small bet and nothing more.
A 500-to-1 ticket should be fun money. If you’re sweating the bet size on Todd Gilliland, you’ve bet too damn much.
How Bettors Should Attack the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
The outright board gets most of the attention, but Bristol gives us plenty of other ways to bet Saturday night. Top-5s, Top-10s, driver matchups, and live markets may end up being better bets than adding more winner tickets. Driver matchups are high on my list.
Practice should give us a better idea of who can keep speed in the car over longer runs.
At Bristol, I don’t care nearly as much about one hero lap as I do about what the car looks like after the tires have taken some abuse. Track position can create live-betting opportunities too.
A good car can get shuffled backward after a bad stop or an ugly restart. If the speed is still there and the live price overreacts to where the driver happens to be running, I’ll take a look. Just don’t assume 18th place means the night is over.
Five hundred laps gives these teams time to recover. It also gives Bristol plenty of time to ruin everything again.
Practice & Qualifying Could Change Everything
Practice matters this week, but don’t get too excited about whoever puts down the fastest lap. I want the longer runs.
Show me who can still turn good laps after 20 or 30 circuits, especially in traffic. That’s going to tell me more than one qualifying-style lap with fresh tires and a clean track. Qualifying still matters.
Starting near the front keeps a driver out of some early nonsense and gives the team more control over its race.
Nobody wants to spend the first stage burning up equipment trying to work through traffic. I’ll be watching Larson, Bell, and Blaney closely. If one of those three clearly looks better than the others over a longer run, it could separate a group that’s tightly packed on the odds board.
Logano is another guy I’ll be watching before deciding whether I want anything beyond the outright.
The odds will move. That’s why I’m not filling the entire card before the cars even hit the track.
Complete Bass Pro Shops Night Race Longshot Odds
We’ve covered the top half of the board, but there are plenty of monster prices sitting underneath it. Most of these guys are much more interesting to me in Top-10s and driver matchups than as outright winners. Todd Gilliland is the one exception.
- Alex Bowman +10000
- Erik Jones +10000
- A.J. Allmendinger +12500
- Daniel Suarez +12500
- Shane van Gisbergen +12500
- Michael McDowell +12500
- Austin Dillon +20000
- Noah Gragson +20000
- Connor Zilisch +20000
- Zane Smith +25000
- John Hunter Nemechek +30000
- Austin Hill +35000
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +40000
- Todd Gilliland +50000
- Riley Herbst +75000
- Cole Custer +100000
- Ty Dillon +100000
- Josh Bilicki +150000
- Cody Ware +250000
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Bristol Top-10 & Driver Matchup Betting
The five outright bets aren’t the end of my Bristol card. Once practice and qualifying are finished, I’ll be looking hard at Top-10 markets and head-to-head matchups. Gilliland is an obvious placement-market candidate.
I’m taking the tiny +50000 swing because of what he did here in the spring, but asking him to win the race is a completely different proposition from asking him to hang around the top 10 again. If the price is right, I don’t mind attacking both.
Keselowski and Buescher interest me too.
Keselowski nearly won this race last season, while Buescher already owns a Bristol Night Race victory. Neither made my outright card, but that doesn’t mean I’m crossing them off every other betting market. That’s the mistake bettors make sometimes.
You don’t have to bet a guy to win just because you think he’ll run well.
Live Betting the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Bristol is made for live betting because the running order can lie to you. A driver can lose spots after a bad pit stop, get trapped in traffic, or simply end up on the wrong side of a restart.
The car may still be fine. If Larson, Bell, or Blaney gets shuffled backward but continues showing speed, I’ll be checking the live number. I’m much more interested in buying a good car at a better price than chasing somebody just because he happens to be leading on Lap 140.
Five hundred laps is a long night. The guy running first halfway through this thing doesn’t get a trophy.
The sportsbook knows that too, but live markets can still move hard when the leaderboard changes. Patience helps.
Chase Pressure at Bristol
This is the third race of the Chase, and every point still matters under the new 2026 championship format.
There isn’t an elimination cutoff Saturday night, but nobody wants to give away a pile of points at Bristol and spend the next month trying to dig out. Larson has already made a move.
After what had been a disappointing season by his standards, last weekend’s Gateway win pushed him into the top three. Now he gets Bristol, where he’s been one of the best drivers in the field. Hamlin still leads the standings.
Bell is right there too after his Chase-opening win.
That puts three of the championship’s biggest names near the top of the betting board Saturday night, even though Hamlin isn’t one of my five outright plays. One wreck can change the picture.
That’s Bristol’s contribution to the championship discussion.
Best Sportsbook for Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting
The Bass Pro Shops Night Race gives NASCAR bettors plenty of ways to play Saturday. Outright winners, Top-3s, Top-5s, Top-10s, stage winners, manufacturer props, driver matchups, and live betting all give us options beyond simply picking the winner.
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NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race on X
The Chase gladiators are ready for their next battle. pic.twitter.com/W3S5UGwk3I
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 15, 2026
Free Picks & NASCAR Betting Prediction
My 2026 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Prediction gives us five outright plays: Kyle Larson +400, Christopher Bell +650, Ryan Blaney +650, Joey Logano +1200, and Todd Gilliland +50000. Larson has been a monster at Bristol, while Bell comes back as the defending winner.
Blaney keeps getting closer here, Logano gives us a two-time Night Race winner at +1200, and Gilliland is my tiny 500-to-1 swing after charging from 35th to sixth in the spring. That’s my card for now.
Practice and qualifying could still open up some value in Top-10s and driver matchups before Saturday night.
Good luck this weekend, and check back every race week for more FREE NASCAR picks, odds, and betting predictions from the handicapping team at CappersPicks.com.
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