Free Week 15 Prediction: Commanders vs. Giants NFL Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Free NFL Week 15 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Giants on Sunday, December 18th, 2022 at FedEx Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 15 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington New York Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 15
Washington Commanders (7-5-1) vs. New York Giants (7-5-1)
Date: Sunday, December 18th, 2022
Time: 8:20 PM EST
Venue: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
NFL Week 15 ATS Betting Lines: Commanders -4.5 (-110) | Giants +4.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 15 Moneyline Odds: Commanders -229 | Giants +183
NFL Week 15 NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.5
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Washington and New York meet for the second time, both looking to cement their place in the 2022 Playoffs.
The last meeting between these teams was sure interesting, ending in a tie from Graham Gano’s short 58 yard FG attempt.
These teams are the Spider-Man meme; advanced data shows us plenty of similarities between these rivals. It’s no surprise then that after an overtime period these teams ended in a dead heat, 20-20.
That Washington is laying 4.5 is interesting and likely due to their homefield advantage. We’ll need to dig deep here to make sure we’re not overlooking something obvious.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders sat idle last week after their tie with the Giants, which means they’re seeing New York two matchups in a row. The rest advantage is also baked into Washington’s cover no doubt.
Terry McLaurin was open seemingly every route he ran in the Week 13 tilt and not much tells us to expect any different this week. Fabian Moreau was similarly baked by the Eagles, so McLaurin has another tantalizing matchup. Heinicke having a go-to route/player for a 7-8 yard gain reduces the pressure on the limited signal caller significantly.
Washington easily moved the ball on the ground against Big Blue, posting 165 yards on 4.6 ypc. The Giants are the leagues 31st rush D by DVOA, so we should expect to see continued success for Robinson and Gibson this week.
Where the Commanders get most of their credit is the defensive side of the ball. They rank 4th in rush D, which is ever important against Giants squad the relies on the run game. They’re also 9th in adjusted sack rate, so this front 7 is pretty effective. Add in that Chase Young will be back and this could shape up for a banner day for the D.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley came into week 14 with a neck injury that made him questionable, and although he played, it didn’t much matter as the Giants were down 21-0 in the blink of an eye. The game script just wasn’t conducive to a big impact from Barkley.
And that’s exactly where the Giants don’t want to be, because the passing game severely lacks. The main weapons are Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins and Daniel Bellinger — not exactly Pro Bowl material. Washington doesn’t sport nearly the explosiveness that Philly does, so the Giants should be able to hang around for much longer.
The Giants did what they usually do in the passing game, and that is to design rollouts that move the pocket. It either gives Jones the option to keep or to find the one man designed to be open. Their predictability and lack of verticality in the passing game have relegated the Giants to just 24th in yards per play.
What should be mentioned though is that DVOA still likes the Giants offense. In fact, they’re 10th in passing. Washington ranks 14th in passing D, so this is the matchup to watch out for.
Defensively, New York still manages to bring pressure, with both Ojulari and Thibodeaux raining plenty down on Heinicke in New Jersey two weeks ago. They’ll need every bit of that pressure to stay in the game on Sunday night. Keep an eye out for Leonard Williams who is crucial to the Giants run D.
NFL Betting Trends:
- NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
- NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington’s last 11 games at home
- Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
4* Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Free Week 15 NFL Betting Prediction: NYG +4.5
I don’t see a ton of value in taking the Commanders -4.5 — we’re in a bit of a no man’s land with that number.
The total is low and I would shade towards playing the over, but we just don’t know what the weather will be. Weather played a part in the last game.
Speaking of last game, the Giants were a boneheaded personal foul penalty away from putting Washington away. A Giants win would have made this number entirely different. For how similar the two teams are, I’m taking the points.
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