Free Week 10 Prediction: Eagles vs. Commanders NFL Odds
Looking for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Free NFL Week 10 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Eagles taking on the Commanders on Monday, November 14th, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Philadelphia – Washington Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) vs. Washington Commanders (4-5)
Date: Monday, November 14th, 2022
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: Eagles -11 (-110) | Commanders +11 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 10 Moneyline Odds: Eagles -724 | Commanders +480
NFL Week 10 NFL Betting Total: O/U 44.5
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Week 10 brings a Monday Night Football matchup of NFC East opponents on opposite ends of the division.
Coming into the season, I loved the Eagles future as NFC East champions. Somehow the books had them only with the second-best odds, trailing the defending champion Cowboys. But we know that regression hits teams year to year and Dallas was primed.
But I don’t want to pin this on the Cowboys alone because that discredits what the Eagles have done to this point. They’re undefeated, Hurts has taken a step forward in efficiency and they rounded out a defense that desperately needed help. We will of course dive into the data, but this Birds squad doesn’t have many, if any, weaknesses to pick on.
Washington’s season hung in the balance on TNF in week 6 against the Bears. They should have lost that game 4 times over, but emerged victorious, and instead of being 1-5 and likely firing Ron Rivera, they scraped out 2-4 and eventually moved onto 4-5. In fact, they were a few bounces away from being 5-4, which would have been a miracle effort.
Vegas has set this line quite high, so we’ll need to rely on our data and a little bit of narrative to parse what is the right call.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly pulls their second primetime game in a row, and to their benefit, it’s essentially a mini bye. By the time kickoff happens on Monday night, they won’t have played 11/3-11/13.
I’ve said before, but the rest advantage is often overlooked and preparation to some extent. You likely haven’t needed to watch too much football this year to know that Philly is pretty darn good. They’re the best team in the NFC, haven’t lost a game yet and are second in the NFL in points per game.
Hurts ranks 5th among all QB’s in EPA/play and has led the Eagles to the fourth-best offense by DVOA. Hurts’ rushing ability is always a tough ask to defend because it requires a player to spy and most don’t have his speed. By all accounts, Hurts is in play for the MVP award.
When these teams met in week 3 the Eagles dominated, winning 24-8 and throwing for 340 yards! The Eagles now take this series back home and that doesn’t look great for the Commies. Most wouldn’t put the Eagles rushing unit near the top of the league, likely due to their committee approach, but Hurts must be accounted for. Philly still manages to record the 6th most rushing yards per game.
What really makes Philly so dangerous is how complete they are. While you immediately think of their offensive firepower, the defense has been equally dominant. DVOA likes them as the 3rd best defense, they rank 4th in defensive adjusted sack rate and 8th in overall pressure rate.
There are some causes for concern however. They’re just 26th in rush D by DVOA and just lost DT Jordan Davis to the IR for the next four weeks. Philly also leads the NFL in turnover margin at +15. The next closest team is only +7, so we’re likely due to see some regression on that front, and we know TO margin is highly critical to the win-loss outcome.
Washington Commanders
Washington is at a crossroad of sorts. They’re on their second QB of the year, they’re a game below .500 and in last place in their division. Ideally, they can get back on track with a win and a Dallas/NYG loss, but it’s still an uphill battle. They also don’t do any one thing particularly well on offense.
Heinicke is coming off of a 15/28 for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns to 1 interception performance. The offense only managed 17 points and that just won’t get it done against the Philly offense. Washington was run heavy in their approach against Minnesota, and will likely go that route again with QB limitations and Philly’s vulnerability to the run.
Brian Robinson is getting most of the midfield carries while Antonio Gibson is seeing the RZ carries. Neither was particularly effective from a ypc standpoint but will get another crack this week.
The Commanders certainly miss Jahan Dotson from their offense and McKissic’s receiving abilities. McLaurin historically really struggles against Darius Slay and Curtis Samuel will find himself covered by James Bradberry. DVOA already doesn’t like the Washington offense, ranking them 28th and now they get a tough Eagles defense.
A positive you could say for Washington is their defense. The rush defense will be needed this week and they rank #1 in rush D by DVOA. Although, they rank a mere 18th in EPA/dropback which will be tested by the Brown-Smith duo. Washington also generates the 3rd most pressure in the NFL but that could actually work against them with Hurts’ scrambling ability.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington’s last 14 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
- Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: u44.5
We know that divisional games typically go the way of the underdog, especially when the spread is in the double digit range. Primetime unders are still hitting at a good rate, and since 2017, when the spread is 9.5 or more, the under hits around a 60% clip.
If we think about game flow, I see this game going one of two ways: one, the Eagles blow out the Commanders and with little to no points from Washington, the under is an easy cash, OR Washington grinds this game into a slow paced trench warfare. In either scenario the under is a solid bet. I just don’t see this game being a Monday night shootout, which means we’re on the right track.
Remember, stats and trends don’t guarantee us a win. A 60% trend still loses 4/10 times. What they do though, is give us the best chance at winning. I think our best chance at winning this matchup is the under.
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