Free Week 10 Prediction: Vikings vs. Bills NFL Odds
Looking for Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills Free NFL Week 10 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Vikings taking on the Bills on Sunday, November 13th at Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long, including all NFL Week 10 games, so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Cleveland- Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(3-5) Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Date: Sunday, November 13th
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: Vikings +6.0 | Bills -6.0 (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 10 Moneyline Odds: Vikings +205 | Bills -245
NFL Week 10 NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.0
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But so are the VIkings which is perhaps why 68% of the public has quickly hopped on them at +6.0. So is this a trap? Is the line wrong? Do we have an edge here?
I immediately lean to the Vikings to cover this as I am sure most of you do too, but I am weary at attacking this line without thinking about it more because it seems far too obvious.
So, let’s figure it out.
Minnesota Vikings
This is going to be a deep dive into the Vikings because it’s my first time covering this year, and I know their record is unbelievable but we’ll take a look at their schedule and some other data sets.
Other than the dismantling of Green Bay in week 1, every single one of this team’s wins has been within one score (if you include a 2-pt try). I am not saying that I need to see a team blowout everyone to consider them good, but the question I have is the Bills have blasted some teams out of the water who have better defences.
Now Josh Allen is being evaluated for an elbow injury that is likely why the public feels the way they do but it sounds like the questionable tag is merely a formality and will likely suit up.
In which case, this Vikings defence is going to be in for a long day. They are actually not bad at limiting opponents in points per game or play.
They limit teams to 20 points per game and .314 points per play. Where they struggle however in the red zone where they allow touchdowns to opponents 78.95% of their trips inside Vikings own zone.
Which indicates to me that their opponents this year just do not get inside the 25 yard line often. Their opponents this year include New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit (in week 3 when the offence was great to be fair), Green Bay and Washington.
All teams that take an incredibly small number of trips to red zones this season. They did beat Miami, a quality win no doubt and by no means am I saying the Vikings are bad.
What I am saying though is that this is their first test against a team that has absolutely no problem finding the red zone, which leads us to the Bills.
Buffalo Bills
1st in the league in yards per play, 1st in the league in yards per play, 1st in the league in yards per game. The list goes on and on.
They score more than half of the time when they enter the red zone and they gain on average just under 8 yards per passing play attempted. Which is actually batshit insane.
What is just as impressive is their defensive stats. They are 1st in the league in opponents points allowed per game at 14.8, 3rd in the league in touchdowns allowed at 1.8, and 1st in the league at points per play with .246.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota’s last 16 games.
- Minnesota are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- Minnesota are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Buffalo.
- Minnesota are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Buffalo.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Buffalo are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Bills -5.5
A ton of movement on this line since yesterday where it opened at -7.0, and since I started writing this it went from 6.0 to 5.5 so if you’re a fan of the Bills in this one you like your odds.
I am hitting the Bills now and heavy until we hear more about the status of Josh Allen. If he’s going you can probably hit this moneyline again if it continues to go the way it’s going before we get good to go update.
On the other hand, if he is ruled out then you may want to cash this bet out if you do not trust Keenum. I happen to think they would still win by a touchdown so you’ll probably see me going down with the ship.
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