Free Week 18 Prediction: Packers vs. Lions NFL Odds
Looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Free NFL Week 18 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Packers taking on the Lions on Sunday, January 8th, 2023 at Lambeau Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Green Bay Detroit Matchup.
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NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
Green Bay Packers (8-8) vs. Detroit Lions (8-8)
Date: Sunday, January 8th, 2023
Time: 4:05 PM EST
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
NFL Week 18 ATS Betting Lines: Packers -4.5 (-110) | Lions +4.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 18 Moneyline Odds: Packers -215 | Lions +173
NFL Week 18 NFL Betting Total: O/U 48.5
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The NFL’s last wildcard spot is up for grabs this weekend with Green Bay and Detroit both looking for a Week 18 win.
Oooh boy, here come the Packers. They’re winners of 4 straight and have re-entered the playoff conversation. I think I speak for most when I say, you don’t want to see a hot Rodgers come January. Anything can happen, and that’s part of the fun of the playoffs. The Giants played spoilers twice as a Wild Card entrant and we could see the Packers do the same.
Detroit revived themselves from the brink after starting the season 1-6. They took down the Packers in Detroit earlier this season and knowing you can beat the team in front of you is an underrated edge. Dan Campbell can take the Lions to the playoffs, and honestly, who doesn’t want to see the big guy cry and spray some champagne?
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has won four in a row, but their turnaround actually started the week before in a 40-33 loss to the Eagles. Since that week 12 matchup, the Packers are 6th in the NFL in EPA/play, sitting just between KC and Dallas. Rodgers hasn’t posted gaudy numbers, but has resorted mostly to quick game and dump offs where they cash in on YAC.
The ground game is actually the best part of their offense, surprisingly. DVOA places the Pack 3rd in rush efficiency which is boosted by the rise of AJ Dillon. They draw a soft matchup this week against the Lions, so we should expect more of the same, game script wise.
Detroit has given points generously all season long, so it’s reasonable to expect that Green Bay can put points on the board. Rodgers is in a do or die game and knows the little tricks he needs to keep the chains moving, namely drawing PI’s.
The defense has only allowed 17 ppg during their winning streak, including an impressive Christmas Day win over the Dolphins in Miami Gardens. Jaire Alexander most recently shut down Justin Jefferson in a dominating win over the Vikes as well.
So we know the defense is running hot and that Detroit typically struggles in limiting opponent scoring. What can we say in the defense of Motown?
Detroit Lions
For starters, the Lions are 7-2 in their last 9 games and have collectively started to believe as a group. When you’ve lost for so long, a bounce here and a bounce there can really impact your psyche in a, “here we go again” vibe. But after you’ve won 7 in 9 games? At that point you believe anything is possible.
In their last 5 games the Lions have averaged 31.8 points, but this is a team that has scored all season long. I’ve given OC Ben Johnson his flowers many times on this site and I’ll continue to. The Lions grinded out a 20-17 win over the Jets, so it’s not as though they’re incapable of winning against a stiff defense.
Green Bay is still the NFL’s 31st ranked rush D by DVOA and we know that Detroit loves to pound the ball. The Lions just abused the Bears on the ground who actually rank 13th in the same statistic.
From a season-long convex lens, the Lions are 31st in EPA/play allowed. Since week 13 they’ve improved that number to 23rd, but they’re easily in the bottom quartile of teams. Again, facing a savvy Rodgers, this is a tough ask.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Detroit is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
- Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Green Bay
- Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
- Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
4* Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: o48.5
4.5 is a bit of an odd number here, but if I had to take a side it would be the Lions. Unfortunately, I can’t really trust their defense, so we need to dig deeper.
ATS trends for home favorite or road underdog don’t show us much value. In a perfect world, this is a live bet, but we don’t live in a perfect world, friend.
My best thought here is to take the over. Detroit is 10-6 to the over, covering by an average of 3.8 points. It’s a battle for the playoffs, we should expect a duel.
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