Free Week 14 Prediction: Cowboys vs. Texans NFL Odds
Looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Free NFL Week 14 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Cowboys taking on the Texans on Sunday, December 11th, 2022 at AT&T Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 14 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Dallas Houston Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 14
Dallas Cowboys (9-3) vs. Houston Texans (1-10-1)
Date: Sunday, December 11th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
NFL Week 14 ATS Betting Lines: Cowboys -17 (-110) | Texans +17 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 14 Moneyline Odds: Cowboys -1694 | Texans +840
NFL Week 14 NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.0
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Dallas happily welcomes the league-worst Texans to AT&T Stadium in a late season NFC East push.
The Colts served as Dallas’ latest punching bag when they were shellacked 54-19 on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys offense has looked quite impressive over the last three weeks and didn’t lose in that stretch. Houston is another potential laugher, but Vegas has set this line incredibly high — the highest of the season.
I’m not sure what Houston hoped for when they switched over to Kyle Allen from Davis Mills, but it’s apparent that it wasn’t an upgrade. The Texans were beaten 27-14 by a team that didn’t score an offensive touchdown on the day. That’s, uh, hard to do. They’ll be looking for moral victories this week.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been on fire since Dak’s return, averaging 37.2 ppg and ranking 3rd in EPA/play just behind KC and Cincinnati. They’re one of the 6 best teams in the league and look to continue that streak.
The rushing attack has been mixed and matched nicely, with Pollard and Zeke alternating who leads the backfield. The duo rates out as the 3rd best rushing offense by DVOA, which makes the Cowboys one of the more well rounded teams. They were able to dismantle the Colts run D, posting 220 rushing yards and 4 scores.
CeeDee Lamb finally looks more like his 2020 self, and Michael Gallup’s return from injury gives them a legitimate second threat. As long as Dak is running the offense their potential remains high.
Dallas also maintains one of the league’s best defenses as well. Micah Parsons leads a defense that ranks #1 in pressure rate, sacks, overall defense by DVOA and takeaways via the fumble. The Cowboys are also remarkably healthy and firing on all cylinders. The Texans face a gigantic mismatch.
Houston Texans
Houston blew their chance against the league’s worst rush defense when they only posted 82 rushing yards against the Browns. They now get the Cowboys, so it stands to reason they may be entirely shut down.
Kyle Allen just surpassed the 200 yard mark through the air, added a touchdown and also 2 interceptions. One of Allen’s picks went for 6 and later was charged with a fumble that Denzel Ward returned for a touchdown. It couldn’t have gone much worse for Allen, but we may also have been watching him deal with some rust.
It remains to be seen how the Texans handle Brandin Cooks the rest of the way, but I doubt we see him. The friction is obvious and they have no real reason to trot out a trade asset just to get hurt. It’s up to the likes of Chris Moore and Nico Collins then to take on the Dallas secondary. Houston ranks dead last in offense by DVOA.
The Texans’ defense ranks 19th against the pass, which makes sense with their recent investments in the secondary. Rookie Derek Stingley Jr. will likely see a lot of CeeDee Lamb and faces a growth day. The far more concerning metric is their rush D (28th) going against the Dallas backfield.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing Dallas
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing Houston
- Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
4* Free Week 14 NFL Betting Prediction: DAL -17
This line opened at DAL -14.5 and then fell to -17, which is unsurprising considering the huge disparity between these teams.
This line is at an awkward points, because 17 is a not a key number, it’s not a clean tease spot and generally teams struggle to cover numbers this large.
I’m wary to lay so many points, but nothing in Houston’s profile says to expect points, Dallas couldn’t be hotter and they’re also at home. Lay the points.
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