Free Week 14 Prediction: Bills vs. Jets NFL Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Free NFL Week 14 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Jets on Sunday, December 11th, 2022 at Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 14 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo New York Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 14
Buffalo Bills (9-3) vs. New York Jets (7-5)
Date: Sunday, December 11th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
NFL Week 14 ATS Betting Lines: Bills -9 (-110) | Jets +9 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 14 Moneyline Odds: Bills -469 | Jets +340
NFL Week 14 NFL Betting Total: O/U 44.0
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Buffalo and New York meet for a rare playoff-altering division matchup in week 14.
Buffalo owns the #1 seed in the AFC at 9-3, which is about what we expected. KC is just behind, which again, wouldn’t have surprised anyone in the preseason, but Buffalo has to keep pace. Homefield advantage would be massive for the Bills, such they don’t find themselves at Arrowhead losing again.
The Jets nearly took down the Vikings in Minneapolis last Sunday, with Mike White throwing a pick to end the game. White proved himself to be capable, so the number here will require some further examination. Can the Jets further secure their spot in the playoff picture?
This Bills-Jets matchup is a little like Dottie and Kit in A League of Their Own — big sibling vs. little sibling, except Buffalo likely won’t let go of the ball on purpose.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are coming off a 24-10 win on the road at the Patriots last week, where they ran for 132 yards. New England is a top-10 rushing D by DVOA, so it seems like the Bills are improving in their ground game.
That’s not great news for the rest of the AFC, because that was about all they weren’t good at. Buffalo is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, evidenced by their 2nd-best scoring differential. Bills Mafia makes for a tough road game, and the Bills have only surrendered 1 loss at home — to the Vikings.
Diggs has been virtually unstoppable this season, and Gabe Davis is a deep threat. Josh Allen averages 34 attempts per game and Buffalo sits behind just Kansas City in EPA/dropback, so the Jets will have their hands full, though they are 6th in passing yards allowed per game.
The Bills defense has been a nightmare for opposing teams as well. They’ve allowed just over 16 ppg this season and sit 4th in overall DVOA. They will be asked to stop Mike White and a suddenly explosive Zonovan Knight, but handled Mac Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson well in week 13.
New York Jets
Mike White has looked competent in his few game sample in 2022, but he has some past performances that suggest it may actually be sustainable. White threw for 369 yards on a weaker pass D, but now draws Buffalo’s 7th ranked pass D by DVOA.
Garrett Wilson had a field day against the Vikes, posting 8 catches for 162 yards and got a look at a go-ahead touchdown late in the 4th quarter that just didn’t quite materialize. Target shares scream he’s the top dog in a White led offense, so he’s likely to draw Tre’Davious White.
The Jets were quickly in a 20-6 hole, so the offense was asked to throw much more. It’ll be interesting to see their gameplan this week should they not fall behind. They’re 11th in offensive EPA/play since White took over and find themselves 8th in EPA/rush with Knight, so the Jets offense has been more than capable.
New York actually won the first matchup with Buffalo, albeit in the Meadowlands. They mucked up the game enough to keep the offense within striking distance and made plays down the stretch to stymie the Bills offense. Season-long DVOA stats say the Jets are the 5th best overall defense, including the 5th stingiest pass D. Sauce Gardner will be asked to blanket Diggs.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 7 games when playing Buffalo
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 7 games
- Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 10 games
4* Free Week 14 NFL Betting Prediction: NYJ +9
The first meeting between these two teams saw the Jets pull off a 20-17 upset. Low-scoring, defensive battles are what the Jets want and they’ll likely need to replicate that model again this week.
Knowing Josh Allen’s nature and his immense talent, I think the Bills exact revenge. We know through trends that these teams play to lower totals, and that always favors the team getting points. We also know that divisional matchups week 13 and on play much closer.
For those reasons, I think the Jets can keep this within 9. The Bills could make me eat my words here, but the betting trends say this is the right move.
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