Free Pick: Rays vs. Cardinals Odds
Looking for Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Rays taking on the Cardinals on 3/29 at Busch Stadium, in St. Louis. This free MLB baseball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Rays Cardinals matchup..
2026 MLB Handicapping – Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals
(0-2) Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals (2-0)
Date: Mar 29, 2026
Time: 2:15 PM ET
Venue: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO
Projected Starting Pitchers: Steven Matz vs. Dustin May
MLB Moneyline Odds: Rays -118 | Cardinals -103 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Rays -1.5 | Cardinals +1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 8
Here’s why I’m backing a St. Louis ML bet below in my Rays Cardinals free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Rays vs. Cardinals Gameday
Let’s set the stage for today’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals. Tampa Bay enters at 0-2, sitting last in the division to start the year. St. Louis has opened at 2-0 and currently holds second place.
The Rays have had issues on the road right out of the gate, dropping both of their first two games. There have been flashes from the lineup, with Carson Williams and Jonathan Aranda showing up in recent at-bats.
They still need to find answers against a Cardinals pitching group that has dictated the tempo so far.
St. Louis is off to a clean start, taking both games against Tampa Bay in this opening stretch. Alec Burleson and JJ Wetherholt have delivered key production at the plate.
Michael McGreevy has anchored the pitching effort, helping keep the Rays from getting anything going offensively.
St. Louis grabbed control early, but Tampa still has enough bats to flip it.
This one stays at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals tend to control games. Conditions call for cool weather with overcast skies hanging around.
That type of setup can slow things down and keep scoring from getting out of hand.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds & Last 5
The current numbers show a tight market, with Tampa Bay listed at -117 on the moneyline. St. Louis comes back at -103, keeping this close across the board.
The runline has the Rays at -1.5 with a +147 return, while the Cardinals are +1.5 at -176.
Tampa Bay has dropped both games in this series and has not been able to settle into a rhythm. They were outscored by an average of 1.5 runs across those matchups.
The offense has created chances but has not finished enough innings when it matters.
St. Louis has handled business through two games, locking in both wins with steady play. The lineup continues to produce enough runs to stay ahead. Busch Stadium remains a factor, and they have leaned on it early in this series.
Burleson continues to be a key piece in these recent wins, delivering hits in spots that have shifted innings. The Cardinals have also avoided major mistakes late, which has allowed them to hold their edge.
That clean execution has carried through the first two games.
Cardinals Stats
St. Louis is hitting .290 as a team to start the season. Their on-base percentage sits slightly lower at .299, showing they are relying more on contact than walks. The slugging percentage is .435, supported by two home runs and four doubles.
Alec Burleson has been one of the hottest bats early, hitting .571 with a 1.000 slugging percentage. He has already added one home run and four RBIs. JJ Wetherholt has also stepped in with a .333 average and four RBIs of his own.
The pitching staff currently holds a 5.21 ERA, which leaves room for improvement. Michael McGreevy delivered a strong outing in the last game against Tampa Bay, throwing six innings without allowing a hit.
That performance set the tone for how they have controlled this series.
There are still areas to clean up, with a 1.74 WHIP and a .304 batting average against. Opponents are getting on base more than they would like. Limiting those chances becomes key if they want to keep this early run going.
Recent results include wins in their last five games, with tight finishes against both the Rays and Astros. They have been tested late and held up in those moments.
That ability to close games has shown up repeatedly.
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Rays Stats
Tampa Bay is hitting .304 as a team, which shows their ability to generate base runners. The issue comes from power production, with a .342 slugging percentage and only one home run so far.
The contact is there, but it has not translated into big innings.
The pitching side has been a problem early, carrying a 6.75 ERA. Opponents are hitting .290 against them, which has kept pressure on the staff.
They have not been able to consistently get ahead in counts.
One of the recent games against St. Louis was a one-run loss, where Joe Boyle gave them a solid start. The bullpen could not hold the line late, leading to one of their two blown saves. Those late innings have been the difference so far.
Jonathan Aranda has stood out at the plate, hitting .429 with a home run. Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero are both hitting .400. Those bats give Tampa Bay a base to build from if the pitching stabilizes.
There is still enough offense here to compete, but it has not been synced with the pitching. When they have gotten runners on, the finishing swing has not always followed.
That gap has shown up in both losses to start the year.
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Rays vs. Cardinals Pitching Matchup
Steven Matz put together a strong 2025 season. He finished with a 5-2 record and a 3.05 ERA. He also struck out 59 hitters, showing he can control at-bats when he is locked in.
Matz has not taken the mound yet in 2026. His 1.10 WHIP from last season shows how well he limits baserunners. That skill becomes important against a lineup that has already been making steady contact.
Dustin May for St. Louis had a more uneven 2025, finishing 7-11 with a 4.96 ERA. He still recorded 123 strikeouts, showing the upside remains when he finds rhythm.
His ability to miss bats can shift an inning quickly.
May has also not pitched yet this season. His 1.42 WHIP shows where command needs to improve. This outing gives him a clean start to reset and tighten things up.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals bottom line: St. Louis has momentum and home edge, while Tampa Bay still has enough offense to challenge.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Betting Trends
- The Cardinals have won their last five games straight-up.
- The Rays have lost four of their last five games straight-up.
- In their last two games, the Cardinals have covered the run line.
- Also, the Rays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games.
- The total has gone over in the Cardinals’ last two games.
- Additionally, the total has gone under in three of the Rays’ last five games.
Rays Cardinals Free Pick: Cardinals ML -103
Here is my Rays Cardinals free pick: I’m backing St. Louis on the moneyline because Opening Day spots tend to reward the team bringing better form into it.
The Cardinals have won five straight, and they’ve been playing with confidence on both sides. That kind of momentum matters when the season is just getting going.
Tampa Bay is trending the other way, dropping four of their last five. That’s not the kind of stretch you want heading into an Opening Day matchup.
When one team is sharp and the other is searching, early-season edges can show up quickly.
In fact, St. Louis has also been handling the run line lately, which points to more controlled wins. They’re not just scraping by, they’re putting games away.
In addition, their lineup has been swinging it well, while Tampa’s pitching numbers have been shaky. That gap can become noticeable if it shows up early.
Cardinals moneyline -103 is the play here. The form and matchup both lean toward St. Louis.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Let’s keep it rolling! pic.twitter.com/6EeLoviXhB
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 29, 2026
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