Free ALDS – Game 1 Pick: Tigers vs. Mariners Odds
Looking for Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners Free MLB predictions? MLB betting sees the Tigers taking on the Mariners on 10/4 at T-Mobile Park, in Seattle. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all MLB baseball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily MLB predictions like this Tigers Mariners free pick.
2025 MLB Handicapping – Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners
ALDS – Game 1
(2-1) Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners (0-0)
Date: Oct 04, 2025
Time: 8:38 PM ET
Venue: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA
Projected Starting Pitchers: Troy Melton vs. George Kirby
MLB Moneyline Odds: Tigers +182 | Mariners -216 (Bet Now!)
Today’s MLB Run Line Betting Odds: Tigers +1.5 | Mariners -1.5
MLB Baseball Gambling Total: O/U: 7
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Tigers vs. Mariners Gameday
The ALDS opens in Seattle as the Detroit Tigers travel west to take on the Mariners in Game 1 at T-Mobile Park. Both teams exceeded expectations this season, but only one will take the early edge in this best-of-five showdown.
Conditions should be perfect for playoff baseball under the lights.
A.J. Hinch’s Tigers (87–75) arrive fresh off a Wild Card win over the Guardians, where their bats came alive for 10 hits. Dillon Dingler and Kerry Carpenter were key catalysts in that victory, and Detroit will need more of that spark if they hope to steal one in hostile territory.
Meanwhile, Dan Wilson’s Mariners (90–72) are built for these moments. Their 51–30 record at home speaks for itself, and T-Mobile Park should be rocking for this opener.
Seattle dropped its regular-season finale to the Dodgers, but with one of baseball’s best home-field advantages and a lineup that can mash, they’re in position to strike first.
In their six regular-season meetings, Seattle took four while outscoring Detroit by nearly three runs per contest. Still, this is October — momentum resets quickly, and both clubs know what’s at stake.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners Odds & Last 5
Oddsmakers favor the Mariners in Game 1 at -218, with the Tigers listed at +183. The total sits at 7.0 runs, signaling expectations for a tight, pitching-driven matchup.
Seattle’s edge at home and their recent success against Detroit make them the obvious favorite. Yet the Tigers have shown fight lately, winning three of their last five — including a clutch elimination victory against Cleveland.
Seattle, on the other hand, has alternated wins and losses in that same span, showing slight inconsistency despite their offensive pop.
If recent history is any guide, runs could be hard to come by. The last four meetings between these clubs have stayed under the total, a trend that fits both rotations’ current form.
Mariners Stats
Seattle’s lineup has been both powerful and patient this year. They ranked 11th in batting average (.244), 7th in on-base percentage (.319), and 3rd in home runs (238).
The middle of the order — led by Cal Raleigh (60 HR) and Eugenio Suárez (49 HR) — brings legitimate thunder, while Josh Naylor’s .295 average and 92 RBIs give the M’s a steady bat behind them.
Pitching remains their backbone. The Mariners own a 3.87 team ERA (12th) and a .240 opponents’ average (10th). They’ve logged 67 quality starts (6th), a testament to their rotation’s consistency. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby form a trio capable of shutting down any lineup in baseball.
Even after dropping two to the Dodgers, the Mariners flashed their upside with a recent 9–2 win over the Rockies that included five homers.
When this offense clicks, it’s tough to stop.
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Tigers Stats
Detroit’s bats have come alive at the right time. They rank 9th in batting average (.247) and 10th in both on-base percentage (.316) and home runs (198).
Spencer Torkelson leads the charge with 31 homers, while Gleyber Torres and Zach McKinstry have provided steady production throughout the lineup.
The Tigers’ pitching staff has quietly been solid too, posting a 3.97 ERA (16th) and a .240 opponents’ average (10th). They’ve stayed competitive thanks to strong control and timely outs, even if the bullpen can occasionally get leaky in high-leverage spots.
Detroit’s late-season surge included series wins over both Cleveland and Boston.
If their starters can keep them in games early, they’ve got enough offense to make this series interesting.
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Tigers vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup
Rookie Troy Melton gets the ball for Detroit, and while his 3–2 record doesn’t jump off the page, his 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP certainly do.
The right-hander’s poise and command have impressed down the stretch, and his ability to induce soft contact could play well in Seattle’s spacious park.
George Kirby counters for the Mariners. The All-Star righty finished 10–8 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP — a slightly uneven year, but one that still showcased his elite control.
When Kirby’s slider is working, he’s nearly untouchable; when it isn’t, hitters can square him up early.
This Game 1 duel sets up as a fascinating contrast: Melton’s finesse versus Kirby’s precision.
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners bottom line: If the Tigers can get to the Mariners’ bullpen first, the upset is live — but Seattle’s experience gives them the early edge in this series opener.
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners Baseball Betting Trends
- The Mariners have lost their last three games straight-up against the Dodgers.
- The Mariners have gone under the total in three of their last five games.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in two of their last five games.
- Additionally, the Tigers have won three of their last five games straight-up.
- The Tigers have gone over the total in two of their last five games.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in three of their last five games.
ALDS – Game 1 Tigers vs Mariners Prediction: Under 7.5
Here is our Tigers Mariners free pick. The Mariners, the only big league team never to reach the World Series, begin their postseason run with plenty of hype surrounding their chances to finally break through.
Many believe this is the roster built to do it — deep lineup, dominant pitching, and one of baseball’s best bullpens.
Yet despite that strength, Seattle has consistently struggled to generate offense against weaker pitching, Skubal aside, Detroit is behind the M’s in all pitching metrics.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have quietly made a name for themselves by keeping games close and limiting damage, even against elite opponents. Their combination of timely pitching and a bullpen that rarely implodes makes them a tough team to blow out.
Given both teams’ ability to suppress runs, this has all the makings of a classic playoff pitcher’s duel at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle’s home park naturally plays to pitchers, and in a postseason setting where every pitch carries weight, offense tends to tighten up even further. Both sides have shown recent under trends, and with nerves running high, a low-scoring affair feels inevitable.
Considering the Mariners’ offensive inconsistency and Detroit’s ability to keep games within reach, the under 7.5 is the smart play.
My forecast projects a tight, tactical battle where every run counts.
Today’s MLB Free Pick
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MLB Betting Tweet Of The Day
When October arrives, the Sound gets louder. #SeizeTheMoment pic.twitter.com/VSx3jwx1pI
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) October 4, 2025
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