Tampa Bay Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2026 Tampa Bay Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2026 (G3) Tampa Bay Derby is set for March 7 at Oaklawn Park in Tampa Bay, FL Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Tampa Bay Derby Preview
- Race: Tampa Bay Derby
- Purse: $400,000
- Distance: 1 1/16 miles
- Track: Tampa Bay Downs
- Date: March 7, 2026
- Post Time: 5:35 pm (ET)
- Live: Tampa Bay Derby Odds: Click Here
Past 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners
- 2025 – Owen Almighty
- 2024 – Domestic Product
- 2023 – Tapit Trice
- 2022 – Classic Causeway
- 2021 – Helium
- 2020 – King Guillermo
- 2019 – Tacitus
- 2018 – Quip
- 2017 – Tapwrit
- 2016 – Destin
Before we can give you our expert 2026 Tampa Bay Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2026 Tampa Bay Derby Handicapping
The final 2026 Kentucky Derby qualifying race at Tampa Bay Downs goes Saturday with the running of the (G3) Tampa Bay Derby.
The Derby is run a 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa Bay dirt course and is open to horses age three. It awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers.
Historically the Tampa Bay Derby hasn’t been one of the most key preps for Kentucky Derby winners, with Street Sense (2007) the last TBD winner to go on to capture the Run for the Roses. However, past winners have shown up in other Triple Crown races, with Tapit Trice (2023) running third in the Belmont Stakes.
Prior to that, winner Tacitus (2019) ran third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes that year.
The 2026 Tampa Bay Derby is expected to draw nine starters and looks to be an excellent betting race.
Odds listed here are provided by the Tamp Bay Downs track oddsmaker.
2026 Tampa Bay Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Further Ado Race Odds: 9-5
After starting his career with a pair of so-so-efforts at Saratoga last summer, Further Ado gave a glimpse of of how talented he might be when romping to a 20-length win to break his maiden at Keeneland in October. He scored a 105 Equibase speed figure, the only triple-digit figure in this field.
He followed that up by winning the (G2) Jockey Club Gold Cup at Churchill Downs in late November, his most recent start. Both those wins came at this 1 1/16 miles distance.
2026 Tampa Bay Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Canaletto Test Odds: 5-2
Canaletto only has one race to his name, but looked good in winning by eight lengths going one mile at Gulfstream Park in late January. The third-place finisher in that race came back to be a next-out winner.
He was a $1 million purchase at the Saratoga yearling sales back in 2024, so obviously the connections have high hopes for his future. He’s been off since that race in January but has been putting in solid works.
The Puma Race Odds: 8-1
Although he has yet to score his maiden win, The Puma has run fairly well in both his career starts. He was second in his debut going seven furlongs, taking the lead and then tiring late.
Last out in the Sam F Davis Stakes at this track and distance he was third, beaten six lengths, but improved his speed figure and could be poised to take a step forward again off a solid five-furlong work one week ago.
Talkin Race Odds: 15-1
Talkin was an impressive first-time out winner at Saratoga in the summer in a race where he finished more than six lengths ahead of Further Ado.
He’s ran twice since then, both in graded stakes. He was second in the (G1) Champagne Stakes, albeit beaten by more than six lengths where he was forced to run seven wide into the stretch. That race was at one mile, and he was no factor when stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in the (G2) Remsen.
Here’s My 2026 Tampa Bay Derby Stakes Free Pick
On experience and back class, Further Ado stands out here and even coming off the layoff appears to be the one to beat. There are a couple of long shots in this race that will likely be going forward early to ensure an honest pace, and he’s one that can track behind the speed.
Back-to-back wins at the distance is also a plus, particularly in a race that appears to have several entries with distance limit questions.
He’ll be a short price to win, so that’s not ideal. With that said, I’m going to give Talkin a chance to recapture the form he had in his first race, and use him to round out the exacta.
Full Field: 2026 Tampa Bay Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Redland Rebels 10-1
- #2 – Talkin 15-1
- #3 – Roger That Dana 15-1
- #4 – Hulkamania 20-1
- #5 – Powershift 7-2
- #6 – Further Ado 9-5
- #7 – Thunder Buck 20-1
- #8 – The Puma 8-1
- #9 – Canaletto 5-2
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