Southwest Stakes Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2026 Southwest Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2026 (G3) Southwest is set for February 6 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, AR. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Southwest Stakes Preview
- Race: Southwest Stakes
- Purse: $1 million
- Distance: 1 1/16 miles
- Track: Oaklawn Park
- Date: February 6, 2026
- Post Time: 5:40 PM (ET)
- Live: Southwest Stakes Odds: Click Here
Past Southwest Stakes Winners
- 2025 – Speed King
- 2024 – Mystik Dan
- 2023 – Arabian Knight
- 2022 – Newgrange
- 2021 – Essential Quality
- 2020 – Silver Prospector
- 2019 – Super Steed
- 2018 – My Boy Jack
- 2017 – One Liner
- 2016 – Suddenbreakingnews
Before we can give you our expert 2026 Southwest Stakes free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2026 Southwest Stakes Handicapping
After being postponed from last weekend due to frigid weather in Arkansas, the (G3) Southwest Stakes is set to go on Friday at Oaklawn Park.
In addition to the Derby qualifying points available to the top five finishers, the Southwest also offers a large $1 million purse. So it’s not surprising the race draws a large field. With the scratch earlier this week of morning line favourite Litmus Test, the race is expected to have a field of 13.
The Southwest is open to horses age three, and is run at 1 1/16 miles on the Oaklawn dirt.
In 2024, Southwest winner Mystik Dan went on to capture the Run for the Roses at odds of 18-1. In 2021 Southwest winner Essential Quality finished third in the Derby as the favourite, and then went on to win the Belmont Stakes.
Odds listed here are provided by the Oaklawn Park track oddsmaker.
2026 Southwest Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: D’code Race Odds: 3-1
D’code only has one race on his resume, but it was a good one as he won his career debut by 8 1/4 lengths going six furlongs on the Oaklawn dirt in mid-December.
He showed speed out of the gate in that effort in taking the field wire-to-wire, stopping the clock in 1:09.2 and earning a 98 Brisnet speed figure. Expect him to be on the pace again here, while trying two turns and taking on winners for the first time.
2026 Southwest Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Buetane Odds: 4-1
Shipping in from California, Buetane comes into this race off a second-place finish in the (G2) San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. That came as a followup to a second-place run in the (G1) Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in the summer where he was well beaten by Two-Year-Old Horse of the Year in Ted Noffey.
Like D’code, he’ll be stretching out to try two turns for the first time after three starts at sprint distances.
Strategic Risk Race Odds: 9-2
After easily winning his career debut, Strategic Risk was only so-so in his next three, missing the board in two of those, and running third in the other in a race restricted to Florida-breds.
But he’s come alive in winning his last two by open lengths, including a 4 1/2-length win in the Smarty Jones Stakes on the Oaklawn dirt and at this same distance. He tracked just off a very slow pace through most of the Smarty Jones, then powered by the leaders in the stretch drive.
Rancho Santa Fe Race Odds: 15-1
Last in a field of eight early in the Smarty Jones, Rancho Santa Fe was forced to run wide through most of the race and then was unable to close ground when the pace picked up into the stretch.
That race was in contrast to his first two starts – both wins – where he was much closer to the leaders early although he still had wide trips in both. Expect him to revert back to that pace-pressing style here.
Here’s My 2026 Southwest Stakes Free Pick
The Smarty Jones Stakes is the local prep for this race, and the top five finishers from that race are back here to try again.
While I’m wary of the California invader in Buetane, I’m going to lean on the Smarty Jones to try and find a winner here. The pace was very slow in that race early and very fast when they started running down the lane, and the fastest of all was clearly Strategic Risk.
I think there will likely be a duel upfront between the two horses drawn to the inside, and if Strategic Risk can get out of the gate clean and sit a good trip just behind those, his strong finishing kick will get him to the wire first.
It seems the connections of Rancho Santa Fe tried to rate him well off the pace in the Smarty Jones and it didn’t work. I think on Friday they’ll give him more of a opportunity to get into the race early which he will prefer. At a big price I’ll use him in the exacta.
Full Field: 2026 Southwest Stakes Odds
By post position
- #1 – Reclamation 30-1
- #2 – D’code 3-1
- #3 – Buetane 4-1
- #4 – Rancho Santa Fe 15-1
- #5 – Litmus Test (scratched)
- #6 – Circle Tap 30-1
- #7 – Liberty National 10-1
- #8 – Spirit Of Royal 30-1
- #9 – Strategic Risk 9-2
- #10 – Bricklin 20-1
- #11 – Silent Tactic 20-1
- #12 – Baytown Dreamer 30-1
- #13 – Soldier N Diplomat 12-1
- #14 – Sleepingonfreedom 30-1
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