Florida Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2026 Florida Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2026 (G1) Florida Derby is set for March 28 at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, FL Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Florida Derby Preview
- Race: Florida Derby
- Purse: $1 million
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Track: Gulfstream Park
- Date: March 28, 2026
- Post Time: 6:42 ET
- Live: Florida Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2026 Florida Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
Past 10 Florida Derby Winners
- 2025 – Tappan Street
- 2024 – Fierceness
- 2023 – Forte
- 2022 – White Abarrio
- 2021 – Known Agenda
- 2020 – Tiz The Law
- 2019 – Maximum Security
- 2018 – Audible
- 2017 – Always Dreaming
- 2016 – Nyquist
2026 Florida Derby Handicapping
Since its inception in 1952, the (G1) Florida Derby has been a key race leading to the Triple Crown. Overall, 16 winners of the Florida Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and 21 have won at least one leg of the Triple Crown.
Recent Florida Derby – Kentucky Derby winners have included Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017). In addition, Maximum Security (2019) crossed the Kentucky Derby finish line first, but was subsequently disqualified for interference at the top of the stretch.
Forte, the 2023 winner, was the morning line favourite for the Derby that year but had to be scratched the morning of the race due to a foot problem. And 2020 winner Tiz The Law went on to win the Belmont Stakes that year.
For 2026, the Florida Derby offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers. The race has drawn a very strong field of nine colts, three of which sit in the top 20 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
They’ll race 1 1/8 miles on the Gulfstream Park dirt course.
Odds listed here are provided by the Gulfstream Park track oddsmaker.
2026 Florida Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Chief Wallabee Race Odds: 2-1
Despite running second last out in the (G2) Fountain Of Youth Stakes to a winner he’ll face again here, Chief Wallabee gets the slight edge in the ML based on trips.
While the winner was able to get a rail-skimming run to the wire, Chief Wallabee had to go four-wide before getting on even terms in mid-stretch. From there it was a battle down the lane, with this one coming up just a neck short. He has a win and that runner-up finish in two career races, both at Gulfstream.
2026 Florida Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Nearly Race Odds: 3-1
The winner of the (G3) Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream back in January, Nearly pressed a very solid pace throughout that race. He took over midway through the 1 1/16 miles and then pulled away rather easily in the stretch, winning by 5 3/4 lengths.
He’s won three in a row by a combined 20 lengths, although only the most recent of those was at the stakes level, and this will be by far the toughest field he’s faced to date.
Commandment Race Odds: 5-2
The winner of the Fountain Of Youth, Commandment showed a lot of fortitude digging in when challenged by Chief Wallabee to hold that one off to the wire.
That was also his third win in a row, a streak that includes the Mucho Macho Man Stakes two starts back. In his final work leading up to this he earned a bullet going five furlongs.
The Puma Race Odds: 9-2
Another last-out winner in this field, The Puma grabbed 50 Derby qualifying points and a likely spot in the staring gate the first Saturday in May by winning the (G3) Tampa Bay Derby just three weeks ago.
It was his first win in three starts, after losing his maiden debut to Chief Wallabee, and then finishing well back of Renegade in the Sam F Davis Stakes, who will be the odds-on favourite for the Arkansas Derby on Saturday.
Here’s My 2026 Florida Derby Free Pick
As reflected in the odds, this race coes down to the top three, and who you pick is will likely depend on how you analyze their last effort. Does Chief Wallabee get the nod for having the tougher trip but ending on all-but-even terms with Commandent. Or do you like that one for the fact he was able to tough it out to the wire over his rival?
Or do you go towards Nearly, based on the fact he he had to run very fast throughout the Holy Bull but was still able to dominate in the end?
For most of the past week I’ve been leaning toward Nearly, but as the race gets closer, I’m concerned about how slow he actually finished up. From pressing a first quarter-mile in 22.82, he ran the last full quarter-mile in a glacial 27.10 and the last 16th in 7.10. This makes me wonder A) how striong the rest of the field really was, and B) what’s going to happen now he has to go another 16th?
I like horses that show grit when challenged, and so I’m going to land on Commandment for the win. While it’s true he got the better trip than Chief Wallabee, when the battle was joined he just would not let that one get past. That counts for a lot in my book.
I think he’ll be able to sit a good off-the-pace trip and run Nearly down in deep stretch.
Full Field: 2026 Florida Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Albus 20-1
- #2 – Cheif Wallabee 2-1
- #3 – Wayne’s Law 15-1
- #4 – Commandment 5-2
- #5 – Redland Rebels 15-1
- #6 – Nearly 3-1
- #7 – Timeless Victory 20-1
- #8 – The Puma 9-2
- #9 – Gregarious 50-1
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