Commonwealth Turf Stakes Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2025 Commonwealth Turf is set for November 22 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Commonwealth Turf Stakes Preview
- Race: Commonwealth Turf Stakes
- Purse: $300,000
- Distance: 1 1/16 miles
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Post Time: 2:39 PM (ET)
- Live: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Odds: Click Here
Past 10 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Winners
- 2024 – Lagynos
- 2023 – Gigante
- 2022 – Trademark
- 2021 – No Race
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – Mr. Dumas
- 2018 – Hot Springs
- 2017 – Mr. Misunderstood
- 2016 – Hay Dakota
- 2015 – Almasy
Note that the race was cancelled in 2020/21 due to the poor condition of the Churchill Downs turf course. In 2022 and 2023 rain forced the race to be taken off the turf and it was run on the Churchill dirt track.
Before we can give you our expert 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Handicapping
The Churchill Downs fall meet is in full swing and this weekend’s feature is the (G3) Commonwealth Turf Stakes.
The race is open to horses age three and they’ll race 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill turf course. This year’s Commonwealth Turf has drawn a strong field that includes a 2025 Kentucky Derby contender trying to re-start his season after a long layoff, and a King’s Plate winner shipping in to try grass for the first time.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill track handicapper.
2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Chapman’s Peak Race Odds: 9-2
Improving every time out, Chapman’s Peak broke his maiden on his fourth try going 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs in early September.
He showed a new dimension last out at the first allowance level when he took the field wire-to-wire to win at Keeneland going 1 3/16 miles on a course rated as good. Now he cuts back in distance again and it’ll be interesting to see if he tries the same tactics in a race without a lot of other early speed.
2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Montador Odds: 5-1
The lightly raced Montador has been first or second in all five of his career starts, although he was disqualified from his maiden win in his second lifetime start.
He bounced back from that to win his next out, and last time was a winner by two lengths on this same Churchill turf while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles.
Mansetti Race Odds: 6-1
The winner of the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 1 1/4 miles, Mansetti has made eight starts on all-weather track surfaces and has won five.
Here he’ll be making his turf debut and should be showing some speed out of the gate. He’s a Grade 3 winner at the distance up at Woodbine.
Flying Mohawk Race Odds: 8-1
A bit of a wild card in the field, Flying Mohawk made his first five lifetime starts on turf and won twice at this distance. A second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park earned him the points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby last spring.
He was no match for that field on the Churchill dirt course and this will be his first start since then, but he gets back to his favoured surface and distance.
Here’s My 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Free Pick
This seems like the kind of race where the more experienced runners have already shown what they have, with mixed results, and it will be worthwhile to try and find some value on an outsider.
With that in mind I’m going to take Montador for the win. Although he’ll be stepping up to stakes company for the first time, he’s been able to meet every challenge so far in terms of competition, and his last-out win at the track is a positive. He needs to find a bit more overall speed, but should get a good stalking trip.
I think Chapman’s Peak could show dangerous speed on the cut back in distance, and I’ll use him in the exacta.
Full Field: 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Odds
By post position
- #1 – California Burrito 20-1
- #2 – Troubleshooting 7-2
- #3 – Montador 5-1
- #4 – Anegada 12-1
- #5 – Outrunner 30-1
- #6 – Mansetti 6-1
- #7 – Giocoso 4-1
- #8 – Chapman’s Peak 9-2
- #9 – Flying Mohawk 8-1
- #10 – Simulate 12-1
- #11 – Plensa 12-1
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