Breeders’ Cup Classic Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G1) Classic is set for November 2 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, CA. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Classic Preview
- Race: Breeders’ Cup Classic
- Purse: $7 million
- Distance: 1 1/4 miles
- Track: Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
- Date: November 2, 2024
- Post Time: 5:41 PM (ET)
- Live: Classic Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Classic Handicapping
What is for most the feature race of the Breeders’ Cup, the Classic is open to horses age three and older, running the “classic” distance of 1 1/4 miles the Del Mar dirt track.
Typically the Classic draws a field of upstart three-year-olds going up against older horses for the first time and this year is no exception, with a trio of runners having competed this past spring on the Triple Crown trail. In addition, a superstar ships over from the UK and tries to become the first Classic winner based across the pond.
Odds listed here are provided by the Del Mar track oddsmaker.
2024 Classic Free Pick & Handicapping: City Of Troy Race Odds: 5-2
The one getting all the hype, City of Troy is a Kentucky-bred son of US Triple Crown winner Justify who has made all of his seven lifetime starts on the turf in the UK and Ireland.
He’s won six of those races, at distances from 7 furlongs up to 1 5/16 miles, four of them at the Group 1 level, and on tracks rated everything from soft to good-fast. In four of his six wins, the horse finishing second or third came back to win next out.
In other words, he ticks all the boxes, except for the fact he’s never raced over a fast dirt surface. If he handles it, he’ll be dangerous.
2024 Classic Free Pick & Handicapping: Fierceness Race Odds: 3-1
The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, great things were expected of Fierceness this summer, but it turned out to be an up-and-down campaign.
After running third in his first start of 2024, he then blew away the field to win the (G1) Florida Derby. He was the post-time favourite of the Kentucky Derby, but ran 15th. He followed that up with a solid win in the (G2) Jim Dandy Stakes, and then barely hung on to win the (G1) Travers over the super filly Thorpedo Anna.
Next Race Odds: 8-1
With a just glance at his past performance, anyone might wonder why Next isn’t the odds-on favourite to win this race. He’s undefeated in his last seven starts – dating back to May 2023 – and the last six of those wins have come by nine lengths or more.
The question with him is distance, as in the fact he’s a long-distance specialist. His shortest win is at a 1 3/8 miles, his longest at 1 3/4 miles. There’s not a lot of competition in the US for horses to race those distances, and more importantly, those races tend to be very slow early. He’s never raced – let alone won – at 1 1/4 miles, and he’s never won against the fast early pace scenario he’ll get here.
Highland Falls Race Odds: 20-1
Coming in off a solid win in the (G1) Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga, Highland Falls doesn’t have the back class of several others in here, but does have the perfect stalking style that suits these 1 1/4 mile races. He doesn’t need to be on the lead, but is fast enough to stay within striking distance as they turn for home.
He’s been in the money of eight-of-nine lifetime with five wins. His maternal grandfather Awesome Again won this race way back in 1998.
Here’s My 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Free Pick.
At risk of being the one who sinks the bandwagon, I’ll jump on board and take City of Troy for the win.
For one thing, favourites tend to do well in the Classic, winning four of the past 10, and finishing second on two other occasions. In the past decade, post time odds on the winner have averaged 3-1.
For another thing, I feel like we know what we’ll get with the other top contenders – on any given day they could run a winning race, but on any given day they could throw up a real clunker. In City of Troy you get a horse that has only run one bad race in his (albeit limited) career. Every other time he has won. He’s already beaten older horses, and he already has a win at the distance. If he was US-based with that kind of form, he’d be even money or less in this race.
And for what it’s worth, the two UK-based horses that came to the BC Classic with similar form and no dirt racing experience were Giant’s Causeway in 2000 and Sakhee in 2001. Both finished second by a neck and a nose to the great Tiznow, the only horse to win the BC Classic twice. So much for not being able to handle dirt. And there’s nothing like Tiznow in this race.
Otherwise, I’ll take a shot at value in the exacta and use Highland Falls. While favourites or low-priced horses tend to win the Classic, in all four years of the past decade where the favourite won, the runner-up was at odds of 19-1 or higher. If I’m taking the favourite, I’ll also take Highland Falls at 20-1.
Full Field: 2024 Classic Odds
By post position
- #1 – Forever Young 6-1
- #2 – Highland Falls 20-1
- #3 – City Of Troy 5-2
- #4 – Mixto 30-1
- #5 – Senor Buscador 30-1
- #6 – Derma Satagake 20-1
- #7 – Ushba Tesoro 12-1
- #8 – Pyrenees 30-1
- #9 – Fierceness 3-1
- #10 – Tapit Trice – 30-1
- #11 – Sierra Leon 12-1
- #12 – Arthur’s Ride 15-1
- #13 – Newgate 20-1
- #14 Next 8-1
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