2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping Odds & Prediction

Lexington Stakes Handicapping Picks

Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2022 Lexington Stakes is set for April 16 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.

Lexington Stakes Preview

• Race: Lexington Stakes
• Purse: $400,000
• Track: Keeneland Race Course
  
• Date: April 16
  
• Post Time: 5:16 PM (ET)
• Live: Lexington Stakes Odds: Click Here

2022 Lexington Stakes Handicapping

The race to gain points and qualify for the 2022 Kentucky Derby that began with the Iroquois Stakes back in September comes to a close on Saturday with the running of the (G3) Lexington Stakes.

Essentially a last-chance race, the Lexington awards Derby qualifying points on a 20-8-4-2 scale. Of the 11 starters expected to go to the gate, three have a chance to pick up the points needed to make the Derby field. The Lexington is run at 1 1/16 miles on the Keeneland dirt track.

Odds listed here are provided by the Keeneland track handicapper.

2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Tawny Port Race Odds: 5-2

Currently tied with four others on the Derby leaderboard with 40 points, Tawny Port is right on the Derby bubble in 20th place, due to the fact that of the five he has the lowest earnings in non-restricted stakes, which is the tie-breaker.

All he needs to do to guarantee his spot in the Derby is finish in the top four and pick up any points. But here’s the thing – not only is he facing a very short two-week turnaround since his runner-up finish in the (G2) Jeff Ruby Steaks, all of his best results have come on the all-weather track at Turfway Park.

The only time he tried racing on dirt, he finished fifth in the (G2) Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. That said, he faces a much easier field here.

Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux were the winning connections in the 2019 race. 

2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: In Due Time Race Odds: 3-1

With only 20 points to his name so far, In Due Time needs to win the Lexington to get into the Derby. The first-place purse money would push him ahead of Tawny Port as well.

Last out he stepped up to try stakes racing for the very first time in his fourth career start and finished very strong to get up for second in the (G2) Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. Prior to that he scored a 100 Equibase speed figure in an easy allowance level-win.

He has yet to finish out of the money and has two wins in four starts.

He’s trained by Kelly Breen, Paco Lopez is the rider.      

2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Ethereal Road Race Odds: 10-1

Like In Due Time, Ethereal Road has 20 Derby qualifying points and needs an outright win to make it into the Kentucky Derby gate.

After taking four tries to get his maiden win, he showed lots of promise to get up and grab second-place in the (G2) Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. But he took a step back last out when running seventh in the (G1) Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.

That race was only one week ago, and with a jockey change as well the connections seem to be taking a desperate swing here.

Veteran trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the race four times, the last of those in 2003. Victor Espinoza picks up the mount.

2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Howling Time Race Odds: 15-1

Although he was only fifth in his first graded-stakes try last fall in the (G2) Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, prior to that Howling Time was the winner of the Street Sense Stakes after a first-out maiden win. 

So it’s hard to know exactly what happened last out in the Fountain Of Youth where he ran a never-in-contention ninth and dropped 30 points from his previous Equibase speed figure. Expect him to make some degree of a bounce-back in his second start of 2022.     

Dale Romans trains, Joe Talamo is the jock.  

Here’s My 2022 Lexington Stakes Free Pick.

Typically the Lexington has ultimately very little to do with the final Derby lineup as the entries are all decided by the time of this race. But as noted above, this year’s event provides some very interesting scenarios as to who makes the cut.

If Tawny Port picks up any points, he’s in. However, if either In Due Time or Ethereal Road wins, he’ll need to at least run second to gain enough earnings to hold onto a top 20 spot. With anything but a win by either of those two and Tawny Port hangs onto his spot no matter where he finishes.

Clear as mud. And having said all of that, my pick here is In Due Time. I think he comes in with the best previous race form, and is not facing the quick-turnaround scenario or surface questions that Tawny Port will be dealing with.

 

Full Field: Lexington Stakes Odds

(By post position)

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About Brent Sedo

Recently wrapping up his second year at Capper's Picks, Brent has previewed just over 200 races with a solid 26% Win percentage, with 54% of his Win picks finishing in the money. He's been a horse racing fan and avid handicapper since he started going to Winnipeg’s Assiniboia Downs as a kid. He’s been to live racing at many tracks in North America, as well as South America, Europe and Australia. He was particularly impressed with the Hippodromo in Santiago, Chile, where fans bring their own wine and cheer every race like it’s the Kentucky Derby. He has been writing about racing online for the past seven years. Stay tuned for more free horse racing picks!

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