Kentucky Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2022 Kentucky Derby is set for May 7 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 7
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
2022 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
All the prep races are in the books, post positions are drawn and the 148th Kentucky Derby is set to go on Saturday.
Open to horses age three, the Derby has a full field of 20 starters, with two others able to draw in if there are any scratches up until Friday morning. They’ll be racing 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill dirt track, a distance that none of them have tried so far.
Last year more than $150 million was bet on the race, and that kind of money makes for huge betting pools and tons of betting value. There are no clear stand-outs in what is a very competitive field and you can get a good price on any one of seven or eight that arguably have a chance to win it.
Odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook.
2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Epicenter Race Odds: 3-1
Record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 1 second
Trainer/Jockey: Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario
Last out: Won the (G2) Louisiana Derby by 2 1/2 lengths
Why he can win: Has good early speed to stay in contact with the leaders, can sit a perfect stalking trip. High cruising speed and a strong finishing kick.
Why he can’t win: Drew a tough inside post position, and any hesitation out of the gate could put him in unfamiliar territory with multiple horses in front of him into the first turn.
2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Zandon Race Odds: 5-1
Record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Trainer/Jockey: Chad Brown/Flavian Prat
Last out: Won the (G1) Blue Grass Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths
Why he can win: Showed excellent ability to work through traffic in the Blue Grass and excellent acceleration once he got in the clear.
Why he can’t win: The Derby has almost twice as many runners as the Blue Grass, so twice as much chance of traffic trouble. He’s a closer, and front-running horses have won the last eight Derbys.
2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Messier Race Odds: 7-1
Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 3 seconds
Trainer/Jockey: Tim Yakteen/John Velazquez
Last out: Second in the (G1) Santa Anita Derby by 2 1/4 lengths
Why he can win: Has good early speed and drew an excellent post position. Never runs a bad race.
Why he can’t win: He’s been facing small, relatively weak fields in the California preps and takes a step up in class here. Some distance concerns.
2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Mo Donegal Race Odds: 11-1
Record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 2 thirds
Trainer/Jockey: Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.
Last out: Won the (G2) Wood Memorial by a neck
Why he can win: Closer never gives up. Looked to be beaten in deep stretch in the Wood and ran down a very good pacesetter for the win. Distance is his friend.
Why he can’t win: Like Zandon, he will have to deal with lots of traffic in front of him. Drew a very tough rail post.
2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: White Abarrio Race Odds: 12-1
Record: 5 starts – 4 wins – 1 third
Trainer/Jockey: Saffie Joseph Jr./Tyler Gaffalione
Last out: Won the (G1) Florida Derby by 1 1/4 lengths
Why he can win: Has a versatile running style and can go to the front or sit off the pace. Has been facing solid competition in the preps.
Why he can’t win: Will have trouble getting good early position from an outside post with most of the speed to his inside. Only career loss came at Churchill Downs.
2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Cyberknife Race Odds: 18-1
Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds
Trainer/Jockey: Brad Cox/Florent Geroux
Last out: Won the (G1) Arkansas Derby by 2 3/4 lengths
Why he can win: Seems to be improving with each start and has been working very well on the Churchill Downs track training up to the race. Has really only run one bad race.
Why he can’t win: Like White Abarrio, will need to get early position from a far outside post. Lacks the overall speed of some of the other top contenders.
Here’s My 2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick.
First, full disclosure – I’ve liked Epicenter all season and took him at 24-1 back in January in the Derby advanced wagering pool, so there’s no way I’m getting off him now as the 3-1 favorite.
But that said, I think visually he has been the most impressive horse in his races. He seems to be able to cruise along at whatever pace they want to go and picks up speed as they near the finish. So he’s my pick to win. It will all come down to getting a decent break from the gate, and he’s had no trouble with that in his races so far.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Messier on the lead as they hit the top of the stretch with Epicenter breathing down his neck. Mo Donegal has a very aggressive rider in Irad Ortiz Jr. and I think he finds a way to get into the mix as they charge toward the finish. I’m hoping that Cyberknife takes the step forward I think he can and gets into the money at big odds.
It should be noted that rain is expected at Churchill on Friday, and Saturday’s forecast is cloudy. If the track comes up wet, of the horses featured here both Epicenter and Zandon have wins on off tracks. The other four have only ever raced on dry tracks.
1st- Epicenter
2nd – Mo Donegal
3rd – Cyberknife
4th – Messier
Full Field: Kentucky Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Mo Donegal 11-1
- #2 – Happy Jack 66-1
- #3 – Epicenter 3-1
- #4 – Summer Is Tomorrow 66-1
- #5 – Smile Happy 16-1
- #6 – Messier 7-1
- #7 – Crown Pride 25-1
- #8 – Charge It 12-1
- #9 – Tiz The Bomb 25-1
- #10 – Zandon 5-1
- #11 – Pioneer of Medina 33-1
- #12 – Taiba 6-1
- #13 – Simplification 20-1
- #14 – Barber Road 40-1
- #15 – White Abarrio 12-1
- #16 – Cyberknife 18-1
- #17 – Classic Causeway 40-1
- #18 – Tawny Port 50-1
- #19 – Zosos 25-1
- #20 – Ethereal Road 66-1
Register here for a FREE Sports Betting Account Now for Daily Free Picks & More Special Offers!
OUR Top 3 Racebooks are — MYBookie — Bovada — BetOnline