Kentucky Derby Futures Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Long Shot Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2022 Kentucky Derby is set for May 7 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Futures Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 7, 2022
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Futures Odds: Click Here
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Handicapping
We’re now just under a month away from the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and with most of the qualifying prep races having been run, we’re starting to get a picture of the 20 horses that will go to the gate on the first Saturday in May.
It looks like it’s going to take very close to 50 qualifying points to make the field, and so far 15 contenders have accumulated that many points and – barring injury or other unforeseen issues – have secured a spot in the gate.
Today in our future bets series we’ll look at four of these starters that are currently sitting at odds of 20-1 or higher.
Future odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook at the time of posting.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Long Shots Free Pick & Handicapping: Tiz The Bomb Race Odds: 20-1
Tiz The Bomb has racked up 110 qualifying points, good enough to have him sitting way up in fifth place on the leaderboard. With that many points, it may seem odd at first glance that his current odds are well into the double digits.
The reason oddsmakers are cold on Tiz The Bomb is that 100 of his points were gained with a win in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, a race that is run on an all-weather (ie; artificial dirt) track at Turfway Park.
The Kentucky Derby is run on real dirt at Churchill Downs, and in three tries on dirt he has finished seventh twice, the first of those at Churchill Downs, while four of his five career wins have come on turf or all-weather. He did get his maiden win on a muddy dirt track, but that was at Ellis Park against a fairly weak field.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Long Shots Free Pick & Handicapping: Crown Pride Race Odds: 40-1
Japan-bred Crown Pride is in a similar position as Tiz The Bomb in that he sits in the top 10 on the points list, but all 100 points were gained in winning one race, the UAE Derby in Dubai (which is considered a US race in the qualifying series).
Prior to that he tried his luck in the Japan-based points races, but only managed to finish sixth in the Hyacinth Stakes on a muddy track at Tokyo Racecourse.
Over the years, three horses based in Japan have raced in the Derby, with Ski Captain finishing 14th in 1995, Lani finishing 9th in 2016, and Master Fencer (the only previous Japan-bred runner) finishing sixth in 2019.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Long Shots Free Pick & Handicapping: Slow Down Andy Race Odds: 25-1
After breaking his maiden in his first start, Slow Down Andy went on to run second in the Golden State Juvenile at Del Mar and then won the (G2) Los Alamitos Futurity by a length over the highly regarded Messier.
To open his three-year-old campaign he shipped to Fair Grounds in New Orleans, where he was a well-beaten sixth in the (G2) Risen Star behind serious Derby contenders Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon.
He then went to Sunland Park in New Mexico, where a win over a much lesser quality field in the Sunland Derby gave him 50 of his 60 qualifying points – good for 11th place overall – and his spot in the Kentucky Derby gate.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Long Shots Free Pick & Handicapping: Morello Race Odds: 25-1
After winning his first three lifetime starts, including the (G3) Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, there was a lot of buzz about Morello, so much so he went to the gate as the favourite in the (G1) Wood Memorial.
But he broke poorly from the gate, trailed the field early and then just couldn’t keep up when the real running started as they came off the turn. Ultimately he wound up sixth in the eight-horse field some 20 lengths behind the winner. Now most of the buzz has gone away.
He’s currently 15th on the leaderboard with 50 points.
Here’s My 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Long Shot Free Pick.
The format here calls for featuring four horses, and while all of these will likely run in the Derby as long shots, I can’t say at this point any will be my actual long shot pick on race day.
While I’d never blame anyone with taking the opportunity to run a horse in the Derby, Tiz The Bomb quite simply seems to be a better horse on a turf or all-weather surface than dirt.
Crown Prince gets credit for the UEA win at 1 3/16 miles, just short of the 1 1/4 mile distance he’ll face in Kentucky. But until a Japan-based horse even challenges for the Derby win, I’ll pass.
And Slow Down Andy seems to be a horse going in the wrong direction. If you can’t win one of the big prep races in Florida, Louisiana or Kentucky, a win in New Mexico doesn’t impress me much.
By default, that leaves Morello. Although the longest of his three wins only came at one mile, his breeding suggests he can go longer. And he improved his speed rating in each of those three wins, always a positive sign. What you have to decide as a bettor is whether to just toss his performance in the Wood and give him another chance.
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